All major league victories are hard won – even if they don’t necessarily seem so. Last night’s 7-5 conquest of the Miami Marlins (box score) – after a grueling 3 hour and 46 minute struggle which began with the Cards trailing 4-0 in the first inning – was, I think, one of the more difficult of the season, so far.
Nonetheless, with the conquest, the Cards have now won six in a row and 16 out of 21. Last year’s team never won more than five in a row and never managed more than 13 wins in any 21 game span.
The Marlins are currently trending the opposite way, losing 12 of their last 15. They need some answers in the bullpen – two of the losses they suffered in this series were due to bullpen meltdowns. But take the Miami hitters lightly at your own peril.
They finished with 5 runs on 9 hits – 2 of them home runs – and 8 walks. But just as impressive were the at bats, whether they resulted in hits or not.
After almost four hours of baseball, Miami ended the evening having sent 43 batters to the plate and exacting 208 pitches from the Cardinal staff – an impressive 54 of which were fouled off. The Cardinal pitching staff came into the game averaging 3.83 pitches per batter faced. They threw 4.84 per batter last night. Whatever else you may say about Miami, they are a difficult offensive team.
The Streaking Cardinals
In addition to the six-game streak, St Louis is now 7-2 in the month of May – even though the rotation hasn’t been as solid as they were through most of April. Over the last 9 starts, the rotation has given us 5 quality starts and a 4.10 ERA. Surprisingly, it has been the bullpen to the rescue to this point of May. They have a 1.31 ERA in their first 34.1 innings of the month.
Offensively, the Cards enter the home-stand on a significant roll. As a team, they are hitting .290/.366/.467 scoring 6 runs a game in the early part of May, and over the last 21 games the batting line is .288/.359/.470 while scoring 5.29 runs per game.
Jedd Gyorko led the offense again with three more hits and two important RBIs that helped the Cards get back in the game. Jedd extended his current hitting streak to seven games, and now has hits in 10 of his last 11 games. Over those games, Jedd is hitting .400 (18 for 45) and slugging .689 (4 doubles & 3 home runs) with 10 RBIs.
Jedd is 27 for 69 (.391) with 7 doubles, a triple and 4 home runs (a .696 slugging percentage) since the sweep at the hands of the Yankees.
Aledmys Diaz broke out of his hitless skid with two hits last night, and hit a couple of other balls hard. Although it’s been a very streaky ride, Diaz is still hitting .375 (12 for 32) with 6 runs batted in in 7 games since he was re-settled in the sixth slot in the order. Aledmys has struck out just once in those games.
Randal Grichuk hit a couple more long fly balls that stayed in the park and struck out two more times as his 0-for-5 evening extends his hitless streak to 16 at bats and his homerless streak to 51 at bats. Grichuk’s average is back down to .228 for the season. Randal has also gone 6 games now without drawing a walk.
Since re-locating to the second slot in the order four games ago, Randal is 2 for 19 (.105).
Lance Lynn’s streak of four straight quality starts came to a crashing halt in the first inning last night. He served up two first-inning home runs. Lance has had 6 hit off him already – 5 of them in just two games. He served up 3 to Washington on April 11. Those are also the only two games this season that Lance has walked more than two batters.
The story here, though, was more than the home runs. In general, the Miami hitters put Lance through the ringer in all of his four innings. They exacted 104 pitches from Lynn in those innings as they refused to chase pitches out of the zone (43 of Lance’s 104 were ruled balls) and extended at bats by fouling off his pitches. They drove 22 of those pitches foul, while only missing on 7 swings.
Lance intermittently has the problem of long at bats. After averaging 4.95 pitches per batter faced last night, Lynn’s season average sits at 4.16 per batter – the highest on the staff (higher even than Adam Wainwright’s 4.07).
Nine of the 12 batters who put the ball in play against Lance hit the ball in the air. At times over his quality start streak, Lance looked like a groundball pitcher. When he beat Milwaukee (4-1) on April 22, his ratio was reversed – 9 grounders and 3 fly balls.
Groundball pitchers do have the virtue of getting the double-play ball. Lynn had four batters at the plate last night in double-play situations and got double-plays from none of them. For the season, Lynn has induced 2 double plays in 28 such opportunities. You would think that his 7.1% would be the lowest percentage of any of the starters, but you would be wrong. To this point of the season, Mike Leake has faced 20 batters in double-play situations and hasn’t gotten one yet. He has gotten 8 ground balls, but three have found their way through the infield for hits and the defense has been unable to turn any of the other five into double plays.
Lance has also had intermittent problems throwing first-pitch strikes. Only 11 of the 21 batters he faced last night saw strike one. For the season, Lance is throwing first-pitch strikes just 54.8% of the time.
Sam Tuivailala picked up his second win in the last four games. He pitched the fifth, giving up no hits but walking a batter. Sam has appeared in 3 games since his recall. In 4 total innings, he has allowed just 1 hit, but has now walked 3.
I didn’t see Sam pitch down in Memphis, but one notable difference in his game in the few innings since his recall is the frequency of his first pitch strikes. In his limited appearances last year, only 57.4% of the batters he faced saw that first pitch strike. He was better at the beginning of the year, throwing 61.5% first-pitch strikes before being returned to AAA. He threw first-pitch strikes to 3 of the 4 batters he faced last night, and has thrown 11 first-pitch strikes to the 15 batters he’s faced since his recall (73.3%).
This approach compliments his pitch-to-contact style. Although Sam can throw with good velocity, he doesn’t generate many swinging strikes. Last year, only 15.3% of the swings against him missed the ball. Last night he caused only one swinging strike, and is at 12.8% for the year.
After being on quite a good roll, Brett Cecil is scuffling again. Three of the five batters he faced last night got hits. He has now surrendered hits in 6 straight games, totaling 10 hits (and 3 runs) in his last 4 innings. He has surrendered 2 leads in those 6 games.
With the hits, the batting average against Brett rises to .333, and his BABIP (a number I almost never reference) is a rather stunning .452. The people who embrace BABIP will take this as good news, as it suggests that Brett has been mostly unlucky. But not too many of the hits against him have been softly hit.
Derek Dietrich made it a 6-5 game when his one-out, sixth-inning single against Cecil drove home Dee Gordon from third. Brett has had runners at third with less than two out 12 times this season – and has given up the run 9 times, including all of the last 5.
Brett’s best moment of the night came on a strikeout of Christian Yelich. Behind on the count 1-2, Christian had no choice but to try to catch up to that slider that started at his knees and was almost in the dirt when Yadier Molina caught it. Of Cecil’s 18 strikeouts this year, 16 have been swinging strikeouts. That 88.9% is the highest percentage on the staff.
Brett would certainly walk more batters than he has, but batters love to swing the bat against him. Last night, 14 of his 24 pitches were swung at (58.3%). In 5 games so far this month, batters have offered at 48 of the 80 pitches he’s thrown. At 60%, Brett leads the staff so far this month.
Since the end of the Yankee series, Brett is also the most missed pitcher on the staff. His swing and miss rate over his last 12 games is 31.4%. Last night, 5 of the 14 swings against him came up empty.
In last night’s seventh inning, Kevin Siegrist may have looked like Kevin Siegrist for the first time this year. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning, throwing 10 of his 14 pitches for strikes (68.1% of his pitches this month have been strikes) and striking out 2.
The narrative on Siegrist seems to suggest that his Spring Training injury compromised his readiness for the season. In his first 7 games, Kevin lasted 6 very eventful innings (7 runs, 5 hits – including 2 home runs, and 10 walks with only 4 strikeouts). His last 8 times out, his numbers have been a lot closer: 7 innings, no runs, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts. Still 8 hits allowed, but even that is getting better – he’s given none in his last two outings.
It hardly needs to be mentioned how important an effective Siegrist will be to a sometimes shaky bullpen.
First-pitch strikes is another of the principle differences between Siegrist in April and Siegrist, so far, in May. Of the 21 batters he faced in April, only seven (33.3%) saw strike one. Of the first 19 he’s faced in May, 12 have been started off with a first-pitch strike (63.2%). He threw first-pitch strikes to 2 of the 3 he faced last night.
Trevor Rosenthal added a stress-free eighth. His season ERA is down, now, to 2.19, and he has been very sharp during the team’s 21-game run. Trevor has pitched in 11 of the 21 games, earning 3 saves and 3 holds with a 1.64 ERA and a .175/.233/.250 batting line against. Rosenthal has 21 strikeouts in 12.1 innings this year.
Possibly the principal reason that Trevor’s strikeouts are significantly higher than previously is his ability to throw his secondary pitches for strikes. Last night, after throwing 4 four-seam fastballs that ranged from 100.1 to 100.5 miles-per-hour, Rosenthal paralyzed J.T. Realmuto with an 86.6 mph slider. Rosenthal now has 8 strikeouts this season on called third strikes (38.1% of all his strikeouts) – all of them, probably, on breaking pitches.
The three Marlin hitters that he faced combined to foul off 7 of Trevor’s pitches. It took him 16 pitches (5.33 per) to make it through the inning. This has been a little bit of a recent pattern as well. Over his last 11 innings, Trevor is throwing 4.51 pitches per batter and seeing 49.5% of his pitches fouled off.
Closer Seung-hwan Oh invited some ninth-inning drama as he surrendered a double and 2 walks (1 intentional). But he got out of the inning with no damage and sent the Cards back to St Louis with the winning streak intact.
Oh has been in the middle of the Cardinal resurgence. He has been called on 12 times in the last 21 games and has responded with 9 saves in 9 opportunities and a 0.69 ERA. He has allowed no earned runs in his last 12 innings.
The highlight of his inning was the double-play that he got off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton that took the steam out of the inning. It was the first double-play grounder that Oh has coaxed this year.
Last season, batters missed on 34.6% of the swings they took against Seung-hwan. Last night, Oh got no swinging strikes from any of the 9 swings they took against him. This month, so far, Seung-hwan has generated just 8 swinging strikes from the 47 swings against him (17%). Of the bullpen regulars, Oh has the lowest swing-and-miss ratio this month.
St Louis had scored first in seven straight games. The Marlins put an emphatic end to that streak with their four-run first inning.
When the Cubs open the home-stand tomorrow evening, they will be the fifth consecutive team that the Cards have played that had lost its previous series. The Cubs were just beaten 2 of 3 in Colorado.