Tyrod’s Last Interception

As the game got progressively farther and farther out of reach, the New Orleans defense dropped into deeper and softer zone coverages.  With 8:41 remaining in the third period, already leading 24-3, and with Buffalo facing a third-and-12 from their own 23, the Saints rushed only three while the other eight members of the defensive unit started backpedaling at the snap.  Among those dropping into coverage was 299 pound (listed) defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins – who took one step to rush the passer, and then dropped back.

Deep into the zone, wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin (lined up wide left) and Deonte Thompson (lined up wide right) began running their deep crossing routes.  In the slot to the right, Jordan Matthews curled wide open into the right flat – but on third-and-12 a flat pass would be fairly inconsequential.

Also aligned right was tight end Charles Clay.  As he started to run his underneath route, he noticed Rankins standing there, and adjusted his route away from him and toward the right sideline.  Quarterback Tyrod Taylor noticed the same thing and tossed the ball toward Clay running away from Rankins.  Matthews was just as wide open, but the decision to throw the ball to Clay was sound.  It was a shorter throw and Charles was running away from a slower defender.  With a head of steam, Clay had the better chance to convert the third down.

And none of that is changed by the fact that Sheldon ended up with the ball in his hands, chugging towards the Buffalo goal line (right tackle Jordan Mills finally shoved him out of bounds at the 3-yard line).

The Interception and its Aftermath

The throw wasn’t terrible.  It could have been caught.  Clay could certainly have helped his quarterback by pulling it in.  At the same time, it wasn’t a really good throw.  It was behind him enough that it him in the shoulder.  From there, it popped into the air and dropped into Rankins hands.  Even if Clay had caught the ball (because Taylor couldn’t properly execute the pass) he still wouldn’t have achieved the first down because the throw pulled him back into the defender.

The Saints would make short work of the opportunity – they scored on the very next play – and continued on to a 47-10 victory (gamebook).  Taylor would play two more series (going 1 for 3 for 8 yards) before relinquishing the reins to Nathan Peterman – who played almost the entire fourth quarter.

That would prove to be a warm-up, as a few days later he was granted this Sunday’s start in Los Angeles against the Chargers.  It will be a career first for the rookie fifth-rounder out of Pittsburgh.

Assessing Tyrod Taylor

All things considered, it was an odd end (or perhaps temporary interruption) in the story of the converted running back/wide receiver.  Always an unorthodox quarterback – and one I always had my doubts about – Taylor goes to the bench having thrown just 3 interceptions and holding a 91.4 passer rating this year and a 92.1 rating for his 52-game career (including 38 starts).

On the other hand, his team is now 19-18 with him as the starter.

In this particular game, Taylor finished 9 of 18 for just 56 yards, with no touchdowns and the interception.  His longest completion of the night was for 9 yards.  His longest run was for 13 yards, as he almost had more running yards (27) than passing yards.

While the numbers were pretty atrocious, it should also be pointed out that his opportunities were fairly limited.  His receivers were rarely able to find the seams of the zones, and had great difficulty shaking man coverage in those moments – mostly early – when New Orleans mixed in some man coverage.

Certainly if it had been Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or one of the elite quarterbacks, he would have challenged the zones.  He would have zipped passes into the tight windows.  But not everyone is a Brady or a Rodgers.  I believe that quite a few NFL quarterbacks would have struggled in that situation last Sunday.

Taylor was failed by the play-calling as well.  On their second offensive snap. Buffalo went play-action, drawing the New Orleans linebackers back toward the line and opening a significant gap in the zone.  Tyrod hit Benjamin on the slant for 9 yards.  For whatever reason, they never went back to play action again, surrendering one of their most effective tools against the Saints’ zone defenses.

There was certainly enough blame to go around.

Missed Opportunities

But, of course, Tyrod could have done better.  The few chances he had he mostly missed, with his best opportunities coming in Buffalo’s opening drive.

Putting together their only sustained drive of the game, the Bills reached the New Orleans 18-yard line with 11:12 to go in the still-scoreless first quarter.  They faced second-and-9.  Getting man coverage, Benjamin ran up the right sideline.  But cornerback Ken Crawley was with him all the way.  Moreover, Benjamin’s route  drew the attention of free-safety Marcus Williams – who was also waiting for the throw in the corner of the end-zone (which sailed over everyone’s head).

Meanwhile, to the left side of the formation, tight end Clay had beaten safety Vonn Bell to the inside, and, with Williams vacating the deep middle, Clay would have had an easy touchdown.  But Taylor – who had been watching Clay’s route develop – gave up on him and turned his attention to Benjamin just at the point where Clay left Bell behind.

It would be Tyrod’s best chance to put Buffalo in the end zone all day.

On third down, New Orleans played zone.  Benjamin – again lined up to Taylor’s right – sat down in front of Crawley, as open as he would be all day.  This potential first down fizzled as Taylor’s pass was well behind Kelvin.  Buffalo settled for a field goal.  They wouldn’t score again until their last drive of the game, when Peterman threw a touchdown pass to Nick O’Leary with 1:54 left in the game.

Why Buffalo is Changing Gears

In between, it was all the things that have concerned me about Tyrod.  He didn’t anticipate receivers as they were about to break open.  He didn’t throw with great accuracy.  He didn’t challenge the zone coverages.  And – especially later in the game – he gave up on plays too early.  By the third quarter, he was ready to run at the first glimpse of daylight.

But more than all of this – and what I think is the predominant reason why coach Sean McDermott is moving away from Taylor – is the feeling that once this offense falls behind it cannot come back.  Under Taylor, the Buffalo offense has been dynamic from time to time, as long as they can keep running the ball and Taylor can look for big play opportunities.  But once they fall behind, the passing game by itself isn’t usually explosive enough to bring the Bills back into the game.

So, Nathan Peterman will get the next start.  In his one quarter of work, Peterman completed almost as many passes and for more yards than Tyrod did in three quarters.  Nathan finished 7 of 10 for 79 yards and the touchdown.  Encouraging, but to be taken with a grain of salt.  Once the Saints’ lead pushed toward the 40-point mark, much of the intensity of the game diminished.

It could be argued that former coach Rex Ryan’s commitment to Taylor cost him his job.  McDermott seems unwilling to let that happen to him.

Where This Does to the AFC Playoff Picture

The loss, of course, doesn’t help Buffalo’s playoff chances.  They do still currently have a hold on that last playoff spot, but it looks increasingly like they will lose it.  Once 5-2 and riding a dangerous running game and an opportunistic defense, Buffalo has yielded 81 points in losing their last two games.  The team that allowed only 561 rushing yards through their first seven games (80.1 per) has been brutalized for 492 in the last two games alone.  With a rookie quarterback at the helm, and with Kansas City and New England (twice) looming on their schedule, it becomes increasingly difficult to see Buffalo in the playoffs.

It also becomes increasingly difficult to see them knocking off New England on Christmas Eve.  When I was contemplating playoff positioning here, I felt that this was one surprise game the Bills might pull off.  It was a loss that might have pushed the Patriots into the fourth playoff spot.  Without that loss, the top of the AFC becomes a real scrum.  If this comes down to strength of victory, the Patriots could ease past Jacksonville for the third seed.

Fear New Orleans

Meanwhile, after opening up a 17-3 halftime lead, New Orleans took the air out of the ball.  Drew Brees threw just 5 times in the second half.  The Saints rolled for 214 rushing yards in the second half alone.  They ran 33 times and controlled the clock for 24:08 of the last 30 minutes.  The week before against Tampa Bay the Saints controlled the ball for 17:08 after intermission, running 20 times for 112 yards.  So, in the second halves of their last two games, New Orleans has piled up 326 rushing yards on 53 rushing attempts.  Brees has thrown a total of 13 passes in the second halves of those games.

Over their last two games, teams have exploited the relative “lightness” of the middle of Buffalo’s defensive line.  Built for speed, Buffalo has no defensive ends listed as heavier than Shaq Lawson’s 269 pounds.  Their interior line had only two listed at 300 pounds or heavier.

And it was here – the middle of Buffalo’s defensive front – that New Orleans concentrated its attack.  Relentlessly, New Orleans’ guards Larry Warford (listed at 332) and Andrus Peat (listed at 312) pushed Buffalo’s smaller interior linemen out of the way in an offensive game plan that was as subtle as a sawed-off shotgun.  Among the awards that the NFL doesn’t give out is offensive lineman of the week.  If they did, Saint center Max Unger might be a worthy candidate.

Against New Orleans, Buffalo began with Cedric Thornton lined up over center.  At 299 pounds (listed) Thornton wouldn’t seem to be a lightweight – although at 6-6, Cedric might seem to be a better fit on the outside.  But neither Thornton nor the since-released Jerel Worthy were a match at all for Unger.  Max dominated both to an extent rarely seen in the NFL.

Still a dangerous passing team with one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, New Orleans now boasts the league’s third best running game (averaging 142.2 yards per game).  They also feature the league’s eighth-ranked defense (number six against the run and number seven against the pass).

There are few weaknesses to find here.  The NFL season is long, and much can and will change between now and January.  But this is a team to be feared.

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