At the end of Wildcard Weekend, four teams advanced to the Divisional Round. Of the four, the Jacksonville Jaguars were clearly the least impressive, squeaking by a marginal Buffalo team by a 10-3 score. One week later, with the dust settled from the Divisional Round, there is only one of the four Wildcard winners that will be advancing to the Championship Game – those same Jacksonville Jaguars on the heels of an improbable 45-42 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers (gamebook).
The game evolved into a surprising shootout – given that these were two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Jaguars finished the regular season ranked second in total defense, while the Steelers were seventh. The teams combined to go 15 for 30 on third down (including 10 of 18 in the second half) and 5 for 7 on fourth down – including 4 fourth-down touchdowns. They combined to score touchdowns on all 8 trips into the red zone and all five combined goal-to-go situations.
But the combined points and numbers fail to give a sense of the shape of the game, which saw Pittsburgh fall behind 21-0 early in the second period, and found them still trailing 28-7 until there were only 25 seconds left in the first half. Like New Orleans later on Sunday afternoon, the Steelers almost authored an epic comeback against the usually elite Jacksonville defense.
Ultimately, the Steelers couldn’t overcome their own mistakes and bad decisions. Nor could they contend with Jacksonville’s running game. Regarding the latter, Jacksonville finished the first half with 116 rushing yards. By game’s end, the Jaguars had dialed up 35 running plays that accounted for 164 yards (a 4.7 average) and 4 rushing touchdowns. The Steeler defense had only allowed 14 rushing touchdowns through the entire regular season.
But even in the face of the almost always fatal inability to stop the run, the Steelers will spend the offseason haunted by a few mistakes and curious decisions.
Jacksonville scored one touchdown on a recovered fumble, and scored another after an interception left them on the Steeler 18. They had another short field with 2:18 left in the fourth quarter, when Pittsburgh inexplicably opted to try an onside kick, in spite of the fact that they still held two timeouts and the two-minute warning. The failed attempt set Jacksonville up on the Steeler 36, where 33 seconds later they kicked the field goal that provided the final margin of victory.
There were also a couple of fourth-down decisions that stung. It’s hard to criticize this aspect of the game, since the Steelers were 4 of 6 on fourth down, including three touchdown passes. But all of their fourth-down conversions were from four yards or more – including conversions of fourth-and-10 and fourth-and-11. Their only failures on fourth down were their two fourth-and-1 opportunities.
There is 1:12 left in the first quarter, and Pittsburgh is already down 14-0. They are in field goal range at the Jacksonville 21 (and I here remind you that they eventually lost by just three points). It is, as I said, fourth-and-about a half-yard. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed the ball to running back Le’Veon Bell, trying to get around the corner. Half the Jacksonville defense met him in the backfield and dropped him for a 4-yard loss.
Then came what was – in retrospect – the turning point of the game.
It’s the beginning of the fourth quarter, Jacksonville is punting and clinging to a 28-21 lead. But the punt is partially blocked by Robert Golden, and Pittsburgh sets up just 48 yards away from a tie ballgame.
Three running plays to Bell leave the Steelers a half-yard short. The Steelers dial up a play-action pass that grazes off the fingertips of JuJu Smith-Schuster. Five plays later, Jacksonville back Leonard Fournette (who finished the game with 109 rushing yards) pounded in his third rushing touchdown of the game, and the Steeler deficit was back to 14 points.
In both of the fourth-and-short instances, a quarterback sneak might have been a better call. If Ben had managed that half-yard in just one of those two moments, Pittsburgh is likely to have at least tied the score and taken the game to overtime – if not won the game outright.
Concerns in Jacksonville
Jacksonville won, but not without a disturbing scare. Remembering that Jacksonville finished the season number one against the pass, second (to Pittsburgh) in quarterback sacks, and first in passer rating (all quarterbacks this season averaged just a 68.5 rating against the Jaguar defense), it has to be at least a little concerning to the Jacksonville coaches and fans that – even knowing Pittsburgh would be forced to rely on the pass to get back into the game – they were still unable to slow them down.
Ben threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns after the intermission. After sustaining a 104.9 passer rating in the first half, Roethlisberger upped that to 113.7 over the last two quarters. For the game, Ben threw for 469 yards, establishing a 110.5 passer rating along the way. A Jaguar pass defense that had only allowed 17 touchdown passes during the regular season, saw Roethlisberger toss 5 against them last Sunday (a fitting companion piece to the regular season game between these two teams when Roethlisberger was intercepted 5 times).
Not Quite in the Zone
Even more concerning, many of those yards were much too easy. During the course of the game, Jacksonville played more than twice as much zone coverage as they did man coverage. They didn’t play it well. In particular, linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith (who provided the two turnovers in the first half) are decidedly stationary in zone coverage. They don’t really drop deep, and they are hesitant to cover receivers in the flat. I counted no fewer than five passes from Roethlisberger to undefended receivers in the flat that gained at least 9 yards. These five plays together accounted for 72 easy yards.
But this wasn’t all the trouble. As the Jaguars pushed their lead to 21 points, they turned to the zone defenses as a way to inhibit the big passing play – thinking they could keep Pittsburgh from getting back in the game that way. What they got was exactly what they were trying to prevent. All three of Pittsburgh’s longest passing plays, and four of the six passing plays of 20-or-more yards came against the Jacksonville zones. The two long passes to Martavis Bryant are illustrative.
There are 32 seconds left in the half. Pittsburgh has fourth-and-11 at the Jacksonville 36. The Jaguars are in quarters coverage. The play call was designed to put safety Barry Church in a bind. Barry had responsibility for the deep-middle slice of the field between Jalen Ramsey (who had the deep sideline to the offensive right) and Tashaun Gipson (who had deep-middle responsibility to the offensive left).
The Steelers sent two vertical routes into Church’s zone – with Antonio Brown lining up right and running the skinny post, and Bryant lining up left and running a deep cross into that same general area. Whichever receiver that Church would choose, Roethlisberger would throw to the other.
Church made it easy on Ben. He defended neither. Church was another of the Jacksonville defenders that seemed notably uncomfortable in zone coverage. For whatever reason, Barry allowed both receivers to streak past him, with Roethlisberger putting the ball perfectly in Bryant’s hands.
Now there are 58 seconds left in the game. Bryant and Smith-Schuster are lined up wide right. Jacksonville is still in quarters coverage, holding a ten-point lead as Pittsburgh faces a first-and-10 on the Jacksonville 47. Bryant and Smith-Schuster both head up the field, but neither Myles Jack nor Aaron Colvin deepen their drop. Both are distracted by Vance McDonald’s short turn-around route. Juju’s deep route occupied Jarrod Wilson (playing the same coverage that Church played in the first half) and lifted him out of the play, opening the middle for Bryant – who caught the ball with plenty of room to run. Martavis took the ball to the five-yard line for a 42-yard gain.
A couple of important take-aways.
First, of course, is that Jacksonville isn’t nearly as secure in zone defense as they are when playing man. The answer here isn’t as simple as deciding to play exclusively man coverages, as Jacksonville had some leaks there as well. The defensive backs mostly did very well in man. Ramsey was more than solid against Brown (most of Antonio’s 132 yards and both of his touchdowns came against zone coverages).
As this translates specifically to the upcoming Championship Game, Jalen has publicly challenged Patriot tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the other corner A.J. Bouye is quick enough to at least contend with Danny Amendola. Both of these are talented defenders. I expect they will both compete well with, but not dominate those New England receivers.
But the weapons in New England run very deep. I don’t necessarily see any of the Jaguar linebackers who can defend Patriot running backs Dion Lewis or James White – both superior receivers. In one of the few instances where Jacksonville was in man coverage, Le’Veon Bell toasted Telvin Smith for a 19-yard touchdown. Expect to see more of that if Jacksonville plays more man coverage against New England.
The other take-away from this is more telling. Both of the long passes to Bryant were plays that took some time to develop – time opposing quarterbacks don’t usually get against Jacksonville. The Jaguar secondary has some good players, but also has a few that can be exploited. Usually they are protected behind an overwhelming pass rush.
Last Sunday, that pass rush mostly disappeared, leaving the secondary fairly exposed – against both man and zone. A defense that sacks the quarterback on 9.8% of his drop-backs saw Roethlisberger drop back 60 times last week while suffering just 2 sacks. The week before, they managed only 2 sacks against Buffalo in 42 drop-backs. New England’s offensive line is expert at pass blocking, so it can’t be automatically assumed that the rush will suddenly re-appear tomorrow.
Jaguars To-Do List
Now, they get New England. As the report out of Patriot practice is that Tom Brady’s thumb is responding well, this game shapes up as a matter of two imperatives for the Jaguars.
First, the pass rush has to re-emerge. The only defense against Brady is pressure – specifically pressure up the middle. With no more pressure than they brought last Sunday, expect their pass defense to be sliced and diced again.
Second, they must run the ball. The difference between the 10-point effort against Buffalo and the 45-point output against Pittsburgh was mostly the ability of Jacksonville to run the ball (with someone other than their quarterback). The Jaguar’s running game is one of the best in football (actually ranking first), but as I pointed out yesterday, running the ball against New England is no simple task.
Presuming that Brady will be Brady tomorrow, the challenge facing Jacksonville is sizeable.