Tag Archives: Carpenter

Cards’ Big Inning Includes Five Hits with Runners in Scoring Position

As the season resumed following the All-Star break, the Cardinals began a ten-game road trip with swings through Pittsburgh and New York, losing four of the seven games – three in walk off fashion.  Among the many areas they came up short in during those games, the hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP) could definitely have been better.  Seven games into the second half of the season, the Cards had gone 13 for 55 (.236) in those situations.

Through the first seven innings yesterday in Chicago not much seemed to change.  They were just 1 for 5 with runners in scoring position at that point, and just 4 for their last 27.

So, as Tommy Pham came to the plate with Matt Carpenter at second and nobody out in the eighth, you might have thought that the Cardinals were overdue to make a little noise with runners in scoring position.  It is doubtful that anyone could have forseen the correction that followed.  The next ten batters all reached base (5 walks, 3 singles and 2 doubles), and before the inning had ended, St Louis had chalked up 9 runs on their way to an 11-4 victory (box score).  They finished the game 6 for 12 with 3 doubles and 6 walks with “ducks on the pond.”  The mini-explosion pushes the team average to .281 for the month, and .264 for the year with runners in scoring position.

They are now hitting a decent .268 for the month of July, scoring 4.76 runs during the 17 games played so far this month.

Dexter Fowler

It was encouraging to see a few hits from Dexter Fowler yesterday.  He returned from his latest DL stint on July 7, and marked the event with a home run. Since that game, Dexter had no extra base hits, no runs scored, and no runs batted in.  He broke all of those zeros last night, as his 3 for 4 night included an RBI double and a walk that turned into a run in that eighth inning.  The outburst pushed his average to .275 (11 for 40) since his return.

Dexter had been 0 for 14 since his return in RISP opportunities before he drove in Pham with a third-inning double.  Over the course of the season, Dexter has been one of the team’s better performers with runners in scoring position.  His 2 RISP opportunities yesterday bring him to 76 for the year, during which Dexter has contributed 10 singles, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 4 home runs, 26 RBIs, 13 walks (2 intentional) and 2 sacrifice flies.  This adds up to a batting line of .279/.395/.590.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter had no hits yesterday until he came up in the eighth inning as the lead-off hitter.  He finished the inning with two hits to round out a 2 for 5 night.  For the most part, things have been falling into place for Matt in July.  He is now hitting .345 this month (20 for 58) and .389 (7 for 18) since the team left Pittsburgh.

In Carpenter’s second at bat in the inning, he came up with the bases loaded and singled to drive in a run.  Carpenter is now 4 for 10 in July with runners in scoring position.

Tommy Pham

The summer of Pham continued unabated as Tommy Pham added a double and a single to yesterday’s mix. Tommy has now hit in 5 straight games going 8 for 21 (.381) with 2 doubles and 2 home runs (.762 slugging percentage).  He has also now hit in 9 of his last 10 – going 17 for 39 (.436).  He has scored 10 and driven in 10 in those games.  He is hitting .375 for July (24 of 64) and slugging .688 (6 doubles, 1 triple, and 4 home runs).  He has driven in 17 runs in 17 games this month.

Tommy’s 2 RBIs yesterday came on a single in that 9-run eighth.  Tommy is now 7 for 19 (.368) this month in RISP opportunities.

Jedd Gyorko

A revelation in April and May, Jedd Gyorko is scuffling in July.  He drew an important walk in that eighth inning (one of two walks on the day for Jedd), but otherwise went 0 for 3.  Jedd is hitting just .135 (5 for 37) over his last 10 games, and has no extra-base hits in his last 7.  He is now just 11 for 52 (.212) this month.

Jedd lined out in the third inning in his only RISP at bat yesterday.  Jedd is now hitting .133 (2 for 15) this month with runners in scoring position.

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong has been back, now, for 8 games – 6 of them starts – and 21 at bats after yesterday’s 0 for 3.  Kolten walked twice yesterday – the first times he’s walked since his return from the DL.  He still has no extra-base hits and no runs batted in since his return.

Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez wasn’t at his absolute best – and the Cubs have always battled him pretty well – but he did fight his way through six innings allowing only 2 earned runs – this in spite of the fact that they finished with 10 hits in Carlos’ 6 innings.

But one thing Carlos can do – usually, even when he isn’t razor sharp – is pitch with runners in scoring position.  Yesterday Chicago had 11 shots at Martinez with runners in scoring position.  They finished just 2 for 10 with a walk.  For the season, batters with runners in scoring position hit just .173 (17 for 98) against Carlos.

Carlos didn’t get yesterday’s win, due – in part – to the offense’s continued neglect with their ace on the mound.  Yesterday was the twelfth time in Carlos’ 20 starts that the offense scored fewer than 3 runs while he was the pitcher of record.

Matthew Bowman

Here’s a surprise.  I pointed out in yesterday’s post how well Matthew Bowman has been pitching of late, and when he came in during the seventh-inning of a tight game, he didn’t immediately serve up a bunch of critical runs.  Granted, the only batter he faced tried to lay down a bunt, and bunted it right to him.  Still that makes 11 consecutive scoreless games from Bowman during which he has held batters to a .197 average and a .214 slugging percentage.  Of the last 30 batters he has faced, 57% have hit the ball on the ground, and only 1 of the last 41 batters to stand in against him has walked.

Kevin Siegrist

It’s only been three games since Kevin Siegrist has returned to the bullpen, but he has looked razor sharp.  In three nearly perfect innings, Kevin has allowed only 1 single and 1 walk.  Seven of the nine outs he’s recorded have come as strikeouts.  Batters have missed on 56% of the swings they have taken against him since his return.

Ninth Inning Disasters Continue

Beginning with two nearly perfect innings on June 13, Brett Cecil ripped off a string of 15 consecutive scoreless performances.  Over those games, Brett handled 15.2 innings giving just 7 hit and 1 walk.

As Cecil was putting together this impressive streak of scoreless innings, Seung-hwan Oh and Trevor Rosenthal took turns serving up games in the eighth and ninth innings.

After Oh served up the game-winning walk-off home run in the ninth inning of Friday’s game, manager Mike Matheny finally turned to Cecil in a closing situation yesterday afternoon.  Brett took the mound for the bottom of the ninth, holding a 3-2 lead.

Eleven pitched later, Brett had given up two runs on three hits and was walking off the field as the losing pitcher (box score).  He hadn’t allowed a run in more than a month, but when he did, it cost the team a game.

The Cardinals are snake-bitten in the ninth inning.

Cardinal pitchers have pitched 11.1 innings in the ninth inning this year when the team trailed in the game by one or two runs.  When it comes to keeping the team in the game so they have a chance in the bottom of the ninth, the Cardinal bullpen has been excellent.  They hold a 1.59 ERA in those innings, with a .211 batting average against.

For 11 innings Cardinal pitchers have worked the ninth inning with the game tied.  Here, they have been less proficient.  In those 11 innings, their ERA jumps to 4.91 (giving up 7 runs, 6 of them earned), including 3 home runs.

Cardinal pitchers have carried a one-run ninth-inning lead for 9 innings so far this year.  They have given up 5 runs on 13 hits and 3 walks while trying to protect that one-run ninth-inning lead – a 5.00 ERA and a .325 batting average against.

Cardinal pitchers have worked 34 innings this year in the ninth inning where they have been no worse off than tied, but not ahead by more than three runs.  They have responded to these closer-like situations with a 5.29 ERA, a .306 batting average against, and 5 home runs.  I’m sure these are not historic numbers, but they are black enough.

There are many things that the Cardinals have not done well.  Hemorrhaging ninth-inning leads is arguably the worst of their sins.

Which Leads to Another One-Run Loss

Yesterday’s games was a textbook example of how a team comes to be 13-17 in one-run games.  Offensively they passed up several opportunities to add runs – along with hitting into three double plays, and running into a fourth.  Mix in more ninth-inning trouble and just enough bad luck (Andrew McCutchen’s first-inning RBI single hit the second base bag, and Max Moroff’s home run hit the foul pole) and you have a developing pattern.

The bullpen has now thrown 94.2 innings of relief in the 30 one-run games the Cardinals have been involved in.  They have managed a 3-11 record with 12 saves, 26 holds, and 9 blown saves.  The bullpen ERA in one-run games this year is 3.80.  It has been a season-long issue.

Carlos Martinez

Speaking of developing patterns, Carlos Martinez pitched seven excellent innings yesterday, holding the resurgent Pirates to 2 runs on 5 hits.  But, it was the twelfth time in Carlos’ 19 starts that the offense failed to score four runs for him, and it was the third time already this season that Martinez had a lead squandered by his bullpen.

If one-run games are an indication of character, Carlos Martinez has been answering the bell.  Seven of his 19 starts have now been decided by one-run.  He has thrown quality starts in 5 of those games, fighting his way to a 2-2 record, a 2.35 ERA, and a .198 batting average against.  In 46 innings, Martinez has given 34 hits – 23 singles, 8 doubles, and 3 home runs – good for a .297 slugging percentage against.

Carlos has deserved a better fate so far this season.

In his three years in the rotation, Carlos has made 28 starts in games that have been decided by one run.  He is 9-3 in those games with a 2.99 ERA

Trevor Rosenthal

Trevor Rosenthal hit a batter (Adam Frazier) in the eighth inning yesterday.  Frazier thus becomes the only batter to reach base against Rosenthal over his last 6 innings.  Yes, we just said this about Cecil, but Rosenthal has also pitched very well of late.  Over those last six innings, Trevor has struck out 11 and thrown 67% of his pitches for strikes (57 of 85).  Batters have missed on 42% of their swings against Rosenthal.

Magneuris Sierra

As you are probably aware, Magneuris Sierra set a Cardinal rookie record by hitting safely in each of his first 9 games.  Yesterday’s 4-for-4 performance included three infield hits, but they all count.  He is now hitting .444 on the season (16 for 36).  All 16 hits have been singles, although he has had multiple hits in 5 of the 9 games.

Sierra has now played in 4 one-run games.  He is 9 for 15 (.600) in those games.  He has also struck out 5 times in those games, so, in the first four one-run games of his career, Magneuris Sierra has only been retired once when putting the ball in play.

Matt Carpenter

As the second half of the season begins, Matt Carpenter’s bat has begun a bit of a revival.  With 2 hits last night, Carpenter has now hit in 6 games in a row (9 for 23) for a .391 average.  Through the first 12 games of July, Matt is hitting .325 (13 of 40).

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong added two hits yesterday.  Due to injuries, Wong has only played in 20 of the 30 one-run games the Cardinals have played, but he is now hitting .350 in those games (21 for 60).  Up until this season, Kolten was only a .244 hitter in 140 career one-run games.

Jedd Gyorko

As the season’s first half has melded into the second, Jedd Gyorko has hit a bit of a dry spell.  He is just 2 for 19 (.105) over his last 5 games after an 0-for-5 afternoon yesterday that included two ground-ball double plays.  This drops him to just .235 for the month.

After hitting .287/.341/.590 in one-run games last year, Jedd is only hitting .239/.301/.402 in them this year.

NoteBook

Of the now 18 times that St Louis has lost the first game of a series, they have come back to force a rubber game 9 times.  They are 4-5 in those rubber games.

Pieces Starting to Come Together

With three runs in the seventh inning and five more in the eighth, the Cardinals broke open a tight game yesterday afternoon, and finished up with a 10-4 conquest of Arizona (box score).  St Louis now finds itself the victor in 4 of its last 5 games.  While this might not be front page news, it’s enough to lighten the mood of the team and its followers, and fan the flames a bit.  In this recent turnaround, most of the mostly malfunctioning parts of the team have seemed to come together a bit.

Offensively, the team has been much more consistent all month than in April and May.  With the 10 runs last night, the Cards have scored 139 in 28 June games (4.96 per).  Thirty-five of those have now come during the last five games, in which the team has hit .275 (47 for 171).

Randal Grichuk

It may or may not be coincidental that the Cardinals’ mini-surge coincides with the day that Randal Grichuk returned from Memphis.  He did suffer through a short 0-for-9 stretch through the first two games of the Arizona series, but broke out of it decisively with 3 hits – including the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh.  He is now hitting .318 (7 for 22) since his return.  Even better, the hits haven’t been soft.  They include a double and 3 home runs – a .773 slugging percentage.  Randal has driven in 9 runs over his last 5 games.

In his first 24 post-Memphis plate appearances (yes a very small sample size), Grichuk has shown some early ability to battle deeper in an at bat.  Before his demotion, if his at bat lasted more than three pitches, his average fell to .160 (15 for 94).  He slugged just .255 with only 1 home run in those at bats.

Since his return, Randal has already stretched 13 plate appearances past the third pitch.  He is 4 for 12 (.333) with a walk.  More impressive, three of the four hits were for extra-bases – including 2 home runs.  The home run that turned yesterday’s game came on the fourth pitch of that particular at bat.

Jedd Gyorko

The Cardinal resurgence also coincides with Jedd Gyorko’s emergence from a slight slump.  Jedd had 2 hits and a walk yesterday as his contribution.  Jedd has had 20 plate appearances over the last five games, leading to 2 singles, 3 doubles, 1 home run, 8 runs batted in and 4 walks – a batting line of .400/.500/.800.  Jedd has pushed his season-long average back up to .298.

Jedd jumped on the first pitch thrown to him twice yesterday, drilling Patrick Corbin’s second-inning fastball down the left-field line for a double, and then bouncing to third on a first-pitch changeup in the sixth.  For the season, Gyorko puts the first pitch in play 16.1% of the time (among Cardinals, only Yadier Molina at 16.5% hits the first pitch more frequently), and no one on the team does it better.  Gyorko is hitting .405 and slugging .929 on the first pitch this season.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter was issued an intentional walk in front of Grichuk’s home run.  It was the only time he reached base, as he finished another 0-for-4 evening.  Matt is now 4 for 36 (.111) over his last 11 games – although those games include 15 walks, so his on base percentage is a healthy .373.  Matt’s average for the season is now down to .230, but with a .371 on base percentage and a .457 slugging percentage.  Similarly, he is now hitting .247 for the month of June (23 for 93), but with a .391 on base percentage and a .505 slugging percentage.  He has hit 5 home runs this month.

Not Just About the Runs

But more than just the offense has gotten healthy lately.  The bad base-running decisions have stopped.  The defense has been solid and sometimes spectacular.  The bullpen hasn’t been as terrible (most of the time), although it’s clearly still a worry.

And the starting pitching – the team’s albatross for most of June – is also starting to turn the corner.  Yesterday afternoon marked a full turn through the rotation with everyone throwing a quality start.  The rotation has put together a 3.26 ERA over the last five games, allowing just one home run (hit yesterday by Paul Goldschmidt).

Pitchers Surviving the First Pitch

According to baseball reference, across all of baseball batters hitting the first pitch thrown to them are hitting .349 with a .590 slugging percentage.  Whether through luck or some element of design, Cardinal pitchers have avoided first-pitch damage recently.  The Diamondbacks were only 1 for 4 yesterday when they hit the first pitch (Jake Lamb took the first pitch thrown him by Mike Mayers in the ninth over the wall).  The last 28 Cardinal opponents who have hit the first pitch thrown to them have just 4 hits (.143).  The other three hits have been singles.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn has been surprisingly good all season when batters hit his first pitch.  Arizona was 0 for 3 against his first pitch yesterday (albeit with help from a big defensive play by Stephen Piscotty in right).  This month, batters are just 1 for 10 against Lance when they hit his first pitch (Scott Schebler began Cincinnati’s comeback from a 3-0 deficit with a first-pitch home run off Lynn on June 7).  Of the now 19 home runs that Lance has given up, that is the only one hit off of his first pitch.  For the season, batters are hitting .214 (6 for 28) and slugging .321 against Lynn’s first pitch.

MatthewBowman

Matthew Bowman added a 1-2-3 seventh that included a strikeout.  Bowman – who has pitched better than his ERA all season – is wrapping up a pretty good June.  In 13 games and 12.1 innings he holds a 2.19 ERA and a .238 batting average against this month.

Bowman’s seventh was highlighted by the longest at bat against him this year, a ten-pitch struggle against Chris Iannetta. Bowman won the battle when Iannetta took a called strike three.  Yes, it was definitely a good couple of inches off the outside corner, and Chris was understandably upset.  Of course, the earlier 2-2 fastball that was called ball 3 was also clearly a strike, so the at bat evened out.

NoteBook

Yesterday’s win gave the Cardinal’s only their fifth series win in the 12 they have played on the road.  The overall road record is 17-21.

Arizona had six hits yesterday afternoon, but no singles.  And the only walk they received was intentional.  The Cards opened the fourth inning with four singles and a walk from their first five hitters of the inning.

Late Two-Strike Hits Burn St Louis

The first batter Trevor Rosenthal faced in the eighth inning (holding a 5-2 lead) was Jake Lamb.  Trevor got ahead quickly 0-2.  But two strikes were to be all he would manage against Lamb.  Trevor missed with his next three pitches (two of them changeups).  With the count now 3-2, and the changeup not finding the zone, Jake may well have suspected that he would get a fastball – and he did – all 98-mph of it.  But it was up a bit and Jake – not trying to do too much with it – slapped it up the middle for a leadoff hit.

After a Brandon Drury groundout moved the runner to second, Daniel Descalso came to the plate.  Again, after two pitches, the count was two strikes.  But Rosenthal missed with the next two fastballs to even the count.  To this point, Descalso had swung the bat at only 1 of the four fastballs he’d seen.  Is he waiting for the change?

If he was, he guessed correctly, because that’s what he got next – a change (elevated a bit) that he stroked into right for an RBI single.  Now it was a 5-3 game.

With Chris Iannetta up next, Trevor threw two fastballs followed by two sliders, setting Iannetta up at 2-2.  But his 2-2 slider bounced and Ianneta fouled off the next 99-mph fastball.  Chris walked when the next pitch – another slider – missed.  The Diamondbacks had the tying runs on with one out.

A hit-batsman would complicate the inning, but Trevor would work his way out of the inning allowing only one more run (could have been much worse).

Not pretty (or terribly effective) but Rosenthal did get the game to closer Seung-hwan Oh with a one-run lead.  For one batter, at least.  Oh got ahead of leadoff hitter David Peralta, 1-2.  Again, two strikes on the batter.  But Oh’s subsequent change floated on him and Peralta flicked it over the left-field wall for an opposite field, game-tying home run.

Across all of baseball, batters are hitting .176 with two strikes on them.  But in the bottom of the tenth inning, Arizona came through with its fourth crushing two-strike hit in the game’s last three innings when Chris Herrmann guided Matthew Bowman’s miss-located 3-2 fastball up the middle for the single that drove in the game-winning run in the Diamondbacks’ come-from-behind 6-5 victory (box score).

One third strike in any of these moments would have greatly enhanced the Cardinal’s chances of winning.

Arizona finished 4 for 9 against the Cardinal bullpen when they had two strikes on them.  St Louis has now lost 4 games this season where they led after seven innings.  In three of those games, the lead was at least two runs.

Over 14 games going back to Marco Gonzales’ abbreviated start against Milwaukee in the second game of the June 13 doubleheader, St Louis is 5-9 with a 5.13 team ERA with a .269 batting average allowed.

Trevor Rosenthal

Over his last 7 games, Trevor has lasted a total of 5 innings, seeing 6 runs score on 9 hits and 4 walks.  All of those hits have been singles, but that still adds up to a .391 batting average and a .483 on base percentage.

During those innings, Trevor had 20 of the 29 batters he faced in two-strike counts.  Those 20 batters have hit .438 (7 for 16) with 4 walks (a .550 on base percentage).

Seung-hwan Oh

Oh’s troubling streak stretches, now, to his last 8 games and 8 innings, during which it has rained hits (12) runs (7) and home runs (3) on the Cardinal closer.  The 36 batters he’s faced in those innings are hitting .343 and slugging .600 against Seung-hwan.  He is also seeing 71% of the balls hit against him put in the air – a strong evidence of his pitches elevating.

Oh shares Rosenthal’s recent struggles with batters in two-strike counts.  During the month of June, 66% of the batters to face Oh (31 of 47) have ended with two strikes on them.  They are hitting .323 (10 for 31 with no walks).  For the season, the batting average against Oh with two strikes on the batter is now .281.  Five of the six home runs he’s surrendered have come with the batter in a two-strike count.

Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil walked a batter in last night’s seventh inning – the first he’s walked in 8.2 innings – but threw an otherwise uneventful inning.  I hate to do this, because it seems like every time I point out how well a particular reliever is doing, he immediately blows up.

But, if Mike Matheny and his staff are entertaining ideas for someone who could slide into that closer’s role while Oh and Rosenthal try to figure things out, Brett might be an option.  Over 9 innings in his last 9 games, Brett has allowed no runs, last night’s walk, 2 singles and 1 double.  His 0.00 ERA is backed by .107/.138/.143 batting line against, plus he has stranded all of his last three inherited runners.  Of the last 22 batters to put the ball in play against Brett, 17 have hit it on the ground (77%).

The last 22 batters to face him that have found themselves in two-strike counts have gone 0 for 21 with one walk.

Even if Matheny and company still have utmost faith in Oh/Rosenthal (and I agree that they should – over the long haul), the fact is that no team can afford to hemorrhage games when they take leads into the late innings.  For a while these guys may have to throw in lower leveraged situations till they get things worked out.

In the interim, a guy like Cecil could be an option.

Carlos Martinez

It’s getting difficult to quantify the impact that Carlos Martinez has on the pitching staff.  He quieted the potent Arizona offense for six innings last night, striking out 10.  Ultimately, two sixth-inning walks were all that stood between Carlos and six scoreless innings.

Martinez has now thrown quality starts in 11 of his last 12 outings, his 6-3 record matched with a 2.37 ERA and a .182 batting average against.  He finished up a 2-2 June that saw him contribute 4 of the 10 quality starts the entire team has so far this month.  His ERA this month is 2.43.  The rest of the rotation checks in at 6.35 for June.

Offense Still Scoring Runs, But . . .

St Louis finished the afternoon with 6 hits – all singles – to go with 5 walks.  They went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position, and left 8 runners on base.  But they ended the day with 5 runs, which should be enough on most days.  Still.  With runners at second and third and one out in the first, Jedd Gyorko grounded to second.  A run scored, but . . .

Yadier Molina then ended the threat with a grounder.

St Louis pushed ahead 2-0 in the sixth, but they had the bases loaded with one out.  Paul DeJong brought in the run with a flyball, but Greg Garcia’s lineout to first closed out the potential big inning with just the one run.

When the Cards scored three in the seventh, they began the inning putting their first four batters on base – so even that inning could have been bigger.

The offense then followed by going 9 up and 9 down through the eighth, ninth and tenth innings, offering not a hint of life against the Arizona bullpen while the Diamondback hitters kept the Cardinal bullpen under constant pressure.

The Cards have averaged 4.81 runs per game this month.  But . . .

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter’s game kind of typifies his recent string of games – and to some extent the entire Cardinal offense.  Matt was 0 for 2 in the game (pulling his season average down to .234), but he walked twice and scored twice.  Over his last 9 games, Carpenter is 3 for 28 (.107), but has walked 13 times (a .390 on base percentage), and has scored 7 runs.

Bullpen Lets Taillon, Pirates Off the Hook

The bullpen ended up being the talking point – again.  But before the almost expected bullpen failure, the evening belonged to exceptional performances by the two starting pitchers – the Cardinals’ beleaguered Adam Wainwright, and the talented Pirate right-handed Jameson Taillon.  Neither figured in the decision, but both were particularly effective.

In Taillon’s case, that effectiveness took the form of 7 strikeouts in 6 innings.  He gave 4 hits.  Three of them were dribbly ground balls that died in the dirt before the infielder could make a play on them.  The other hit was one of only two well hit balls against Jameson all night – a line drive off the bat of Jose Martinez that just made it over the fence in left for a home run.  Martinez also hit the only other line drive off Jameson last night.  He capped an 11-pitch at bat with a liner to right that Gregory Polanco turned into a double play.

Taillon’s dominance notwithstanding, the game followed a fairly familiar trend for the Cards this month.  Three runs scored on two home runs, but there was no other offense.  St Louis finished the game with just 4 other hits.  For the month of June, the Cards have hit 36 home runs in 22 games, but are only hitting .247.

Jose Martinez

Since the beginning of the last road trip, Martinez has rediscovered a little of the magic that helped him make the roster out of spring training.  Over his last 6 games, Jose is 7 for 18 (.389) with 2 doubles and 2 home runs – an .833 slugging percentage.

All year, Jose has been an excellent fastball hitter in fastball counts.  His home run came on a 95-mph fastball on a 1-0 count.  Later he singled off Juan Nicasio on a 97-mph fastball.  That came on a 3-2 pitch after another long at bat (9 pitches).  Jose has been pretty locked in of late.

For the season, now, he is 5 for 11 (.455) when hitting in 3-2 counts, and 12 for 29 (.414) when hitting ahead in the count.

Matt Carpenter

After a brief but torrid reunion with the leadoff spot in the order, Matt Carpenter has lapsed into a slump as challenging as any he had while batting third.  He has had 1 hit in 19 at bats (.053) over his last six games.

It is thought that Carpenter spends most of his season in 3-2 counts.  That’s not exactly accurate.  He did work his way into a 3-2 count in the fifth inning last night, flying to left.  For the season, now, Carpenter has had 68 full counts in 296 plate appearances (22%) – during which he’s hitting .239/.485/.500.  As far as getting ahead in the count goes, though, Carpenter has ended almost 46% of his plate appearances this season (including 2 of last night’s 5) ahead in the count.

Adam Wainwright

As good as Taillon was, Wainwright was nearly as good.  Ninety-seven pitches pushed him through seven innings and gave him – briefly – a chance for a victory.  He was a little lucky (there were quite a few hard hit balls against him), but at game’s end he had only given up two hits and 1 earned run – and that run almost didn’t happen either.

The only earned run allowed by Adam came on a home run off the bat of Josh Bell.  Bell hit a very good cutter that ran in under his elbows.  Josh managed just enough turn to put just enough barrel on the ball to loft it just far enough to sneak it over the wall in the shortest part of the ballpark – the 335 in the extreme right-field corner.  Not that Josh needs to apologize.  If it goes out of Bush, you’ve earned it.

Still an encouraging performance from Wainwright, who stayed ahead of hitters all night.  Of the 26 batters he pitched to, only 5 finished their at bat ahead on Adam in the count.  Leadoff hitter Adam Frazier bounced to first on a 1-0 pitch. David Freese walked on a 3-0 pitch to start the fourth (that walk began the series of events that led to the unearned run).  Adam Frazier – again – led off the fifth by striking out on a 3-2 pitch.  David Freese (again) would end the sixth grounding out on a 3-2 pitch.  And Andrew McCutcheon would add a little seventh-inning excitement by walking on a 3-2 pitch.

All things considered, an excellent performance by Wainwright, who, had he not been let down by his offense, his defense and his bullpen, would surely have walked off with the victory.

Trevor Rosenthal

The hits against Trevor Rosenthal weren’t necessarily ear-ringing – a well-placed looping liner and a ground ball that made its way into right field.  But – sandwiched around a very damaging walk – they were enough to erase the 3-2 Cardinal lead and send them – eventually – on their way to a 4-3 defeat (box score).  This is happening to Trevor constantly this month.  For the month of June, Rosenthal has worked 9 innings, incurring 6 runs on 10 hits.  He has also walked 5 batters.  The 40 batters who have faced him this month are hitting .294 against him.

How does a pitcher with Trevor’s stuff have guys hitting almost .300 against him?  One part of that is that Trevor has lost the ability to get ahead of hitters.  Through April and May, Trevor finished an at bat ahead of the hitter (either an 0-1, 0-2 or 1-2 count) 44% of the time (32 of the first 73 batters he faced).  Those batters went 2 for 32 (.063) with 19 strikeouts.  This month, Trevor has only pitched from ahead against 10 of the 40 batters he’s faced (25%).  They are 2 for 10.  But the other 30 batters are hitting .333 against him (8 for 24) with 5 walks (a .433 on base percentage).

Trevor may have also lost a little confidence in his slider.  Of the 15 pitches that he threw to the three batters that hurt him last night (Frazier who singled, Josh Harrison who walked, and Freese who singled) 14 were fastballs (the only slider he threw to any of them became ball 2 to Harrison).

The other day, I pointed out that Trevor has done very well this season until he gets a runner on base.  Perhaps, for a while, Mike Matheny should have Rosenthal on a shorter leash and pull him at the first hint of trouble.  In this game, that would have been after Adam Frazier’s one-out single.

Another key for Trevor could be when he walks a batter.  In 22 of Trevor’s 30 games this season, he hasn’t walked anybody.  In those games, Rosenthal holds a 1.74 ERA, a .189/.187/.284 batting line against, and throws 72% of his pitches for strikes.  In the 8 games where he has walked a batter, his ERA soars to 9.45 with a .269/.474/.346 batting line against.  Only 55% of his pitches are strikes on those days.  Perhaps Matheny should have gotten him after he walked Harrison.

Either way, Rosenthal’s effectiveness this season has been closely tied to the use and effectiveness of his slider.  At this point of the season, Trevor is struggling mightily to work his way out of jams.

Seung-hwan Oh

All that remained, then, was for closer Seung-hwan Oh to serve up the game-winning home run in the ninth.  Oh has now given up runs – 6 of them, in total – in 4 of his last 6 games – covering 6 innings.  He has given up 10 hits (including 2 home runs) in those innings.  The last 28 batters to face Oh are hitting .370 and slugging .593.  Even if the Cardinals had played well in all other aspects of their game this month (and, of course, they haven’t), struggles late in the bullpen would have undermined all their efforts.  A baseball team can survive a lot of adversity and still compete.  No team can survive any sustained inability to pitch the ninth inning.

NoteBook

The Cardinals are now 3-13 this month against any team not named Philadelphia.

Road Home Runs Raise Questions

In the eighth-inning of yesterday’s 5-1 loss to Philadelphia (box score), rookie second baseman Paul DeJong launched the Cardinals’ twentieth – and final – home run of the 6-game road trip.  Even though St Louis finished the game with that lone marker, they averaged 6.5 runs per game in their journey through Baltimore and Philadelphia – two of the more inviting offensive ballparks in the league.

The home run notwithstanding, the Cardinals finished the game with only four hits on the afternoon – principally against Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola.  That was also a pronounced trend – not just during this road trip, but all season on the road.  They finished the road trip with just 54 hits and a .247 batting average.  Thirty-seven percent of their hits on the trip were home runs.

Earlier this month, the Cards embarked on a 7-game trip through Chicago and Cincinnati – losing all of those games.  They managed just 6 home runs – and consequently 20 total runs – on that trip, hitting .212 against two pitching staffs that have not set the world on fire this year.  This disappointing June that has seen the Cards go 8-13 so far is really a story of a team that has been 5-3 in their few home games this month, and 3-10 on the road, where they have not pitched well at all, and where they have hit only .229.

For the season, St Louis is scoring significantly more on the road (4.66 rpg v 4.03 at home), but doing it pretty much through the home run.  As we limp home, this team has now played 35 games on the road and 36 at home.  They are hitting .246 on the road, but with 51 home runs in those 35 games.  At home, the team batting average improves to .257, but with only 34 home runs (in 36 games).

This extends the pattern that lasted all last season, where the road-Cardinals hit 121 home runs and scored 424 runs (5.23 per), while the home-Cardinals managed 104 home runs and 355 runs (4.38 per).

Offensively, the numbers continue to suggest that this team is – perhaps – mismatched for the ballpark they play in.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter keeps walking.  He drew another walk yesterday and finished the road trip drawing 10 of the 23 walks St Louis had on the trip.  But after a single and a home run in the first game in Baltimore, the hits have stopped coming for the Cardinals newly re-instated leadoff hitter.  He is 1 for 15 (.067) over the last 5 games.  He was only 4 for 23 (.174) during the 0-7 road trip that proceeded this one.  During the Cardinals’ eight home games this month, Matt is hitting .419 (13 for 31) and slugging .742 (he has 7 doubles and a home run at home so far this month), so maybe the return to Busch will bring happier times for Carpenter.

Even though he is only hitting .171 on the road so far this month, he has hit 3 home runs away from home.  For the season, 8 of his 13 have come on the road.  Last year he hit .296 at home with 9 home runs, while he hit 12 homers on the road with a .247 batting average.

Jedd Gyorko

As he has started to hit more to right field, the difference in Jedd Gyorko at home and on the road is growing more pronounced.  Last year, Jedd hit .257 at Busch with 12 home runs and a .485 slugging percentage.  This year, the average at home has gone up (.269), but with a decline in power (4 home runs, .444 slugging percentage).  He hit .231 on the road last year with 18 home runs and a .502 slugging percentage.  This year, so far, Gyorko is 37 for 117 (.316) away from home, and slugging .564 on 6 doubles, a triple, and 7 home runs.

Gyorko’s name could be added to the prominent bats that have not prospered in spacious Busch.

Aledmys Diaz

Aledmys Diaz finished up a disappointing road trip on an 0-for-8 skid after his 0-for-3 yesterday.  He finished the trip with 3 singles and 1 walk for his 21 plate appearances – a .150/.190/.150 line.

Aledmys hasn’t had the best June either.  He is down to .242 for the month (16 for 66) with 3 walks (a .275 on base percentage).

Other Prominent Bats

Two of the most slanted home/road splits on the team belong to outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham.  These two have combined for 15 home runs this season.  All on the road.  Tommy is a .345/.439/.726 hitter on the road, and just a .200/.275/.217 hitter at home.  In 69 plate appearances this season at Busch, Tommy has one extra-base hit (a double).  In 226 career plate appearances at Busch, Tommy is a .217 hitter with 5 home runs.  The falloff in Piscotty is a little surprising.  During his first 115 games at Busch from 2015-2016, Stephen hit .311 with 18 home runs in 427 at bats.  He is hitting .244 this year at home.

Of batters going the other way, the only two of any note are Dexter Fowler (who is slashing .275/.377/.565 in his 36 games at home, while batting just .217/.294/.396 on the road), and Kolten Wong.  Wong (whose concept seems to have changed from middle infielder with pop to high batting average/high on base) is hitting .359/.443/.533 at home vs. .213/.319/.311 on the road.  Kolten had been a .239 lifetime hitter in 686 at bats at Busch before this season.

Carlos Martinez

Yesterday wasn’t the best we’ve seen Carlos Martinez, but he still managed a solid effort, going 6 innings and allowing just 3 runs (2 earned).  Even though he was tagged for the loss, Carlos extended his quality start streak to three in a row and 10 of his last 11, a stretch that has seen Carlos go 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a .181 batting average against.  Of his 15 starts this season, this is the sixth time that the Cardinals have scored no runs for him while he was in the game.

During his first two years in the rotation, Carlos was a dominant pitcher on the road.  He made 29 road starts over those seasons, posting a 17-5 record (one of those losses coming in relief) with a 2.50 ERA, a .215 batting average against and a .315 slugging percentage allowed.  In 187.1 road innings those years, he served up only 9 home runs.  Through 7 road starts this year, Carlos has 4 quality starts, a 2-5 record with a 4.29 ERA.  He still isn’t getting hit very often (.235 batting average against), but has been touched now for 7 home runs in 42 road innings.

Conversely, up until this season, Carlos has never truly appreciated the joys of pitching at Busch.  In his four previous seasons in St Louis, Carlos has pitched in 80 home games – 36 as a starter.  He began this year with 18 career quality starts at home, a 15-13 record, and a 3.75 ERA, featuring a .262 batting average against.  In 2017, Carlos has thrown 7 quality starts among his 8 home starts so far.  The results have been a 4-1 record and a 1.85 ERA.  Opponents are hitting just .174 against the talented right-hander at home and have managed just 3 home runs in 58.1 innings.  If these trends persist, we may start floating theories that might explain them.

Home/Road Splits of Other Starters

Martinez’ home/road splits are generally the same throughout the rotation – and most are even more dramatic.

Adam Wainwright has made 7 home starts.  Three of those have been quality starts.  In his 40.2 innings at Busch he has been reached for 2 home runs.  His record at home this season is 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA.  Adam on the road has also made 7 starts – just one a quality start.  He has combined for just 31.1 innings in those games, during which he has served up 6 home runs.  He is 2-4 on the road with a 9.48 ERA, a .356 batting average against, and a .585 slugging percentage allowed.

The schedule has tilted most of Lance Lynn’s starts to fall on the road so far this year (9 of his 14).  As with most of the rest of the staff, this hasn’t worked out all that well for him.  He has pitched just 49 innings over those 9 starts and has served up 13 home runs (2.39 per every 9 innings).  He is 2-3 with a 4.41 ERA on the road.  He is 3-1, 1.53 at home.

Eight of Michael Wacha’s 13 starts have been at home – and the results have been effective enough.  Through those 8 starts, Wacha has 5 quality starts, 43.2 innings pitched, 3 home runs allowed, while going 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA.  Only one of Wacha’s road starts was a quality start.  Through his 5 road starts, Michael has given us 24.1 innings, 5 home runs, an 0-2 record, and a 7.03 ERA.  He has been hit at a .346 clip in his road games.

Of the Cardinal starters, only Mike Leake has managed a level of home/road balance.  Leake has actually been better in his 7 road starts (4-2, 2.76) than his 7 home starts (1-4, 3.30).

The team ERA is 3.34 at home and 4.91 on the road, with the starters showing the most variance.  They have combined to go 16-8 with a 2.80 ERA at home, and 10-16 with a 5.15 ERA on the road.  It may well be true that the spaciousness of Busch works significantly against the productiveness of the offense.  It may also well be true that the spaciousness of Busch is the only thing keeping most of the Cardinal starters afloat.

Matthew Bowman

With a good seventh inning yesterday, Matthew Bowman continues to make progress.  In 10.1 innings this month, Matthew carries a 1.74 ERA and a .206 batting average against.

Carlos Martinez Plays Stopper – With Some Help From His Friends

Over the last two days, we have looked at character games – one run games and games against winning teams.  Thus far in 2017, St Louis has struggled notably in both of those situations.  Today, we’ll look at my third category of character games – games after a loss.  As you might expect, considering this club has already suffered through 5 three-game losing streaks, a four-game losing streak and a seven-game losing streak, the record in games after a loss is also fairly dismal (14-21).

For the first half of the month of June, it has been the starting pitching that has been most responsible for keeping this club in losing streaks.  In nine previous opportunities this month to answer the previous night’s loss, the rotation has managed 1 quality start (surprisingly from Michael Wacha against Philadelphia on June 9), a 1-5 record (the win, again, belonging to Wacha), a 7.47 ERA with a batting line against of .302/.383/.497.

But last night, Carlos Martinez played stopper.  In 92 pitches over 6 innings – and with a rare shower of offensive support – Martinez retired the Cardinals’ latest three-game losing streak with a convincing 11-2 victory over the floundering Baltimore Orioles (box score).

Carlos Martinez

Carlos’ effort last night was his second consecutive quality start, and his ninth in his last ten games.  Through his first four starts of the season, Martinez may not have completely lived up to expectations (he was 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA at that point), but has certainly played the part of the ace since.  He is 6-2 over his last 10 games with a 2.26 ERA and a .173 batting average against.  While the team has struggled to right itself this month, Carlos Martinez has been one of the few pillars of excellence.  He is 2-1 in June with a 2.11 ERA and a soft .169 batting average against.  Of the 12 hits he has allowed in 21.1 June innings, only 3 have been for extra bases – all doubles.  The slugging percentage against Martinez by the 78 batters he has faced so far this month is a negligible .211.

Carlos has been warming to the stopper’s role.  With a lot of losing going on, 9 of Martinez’ 14 starts have followed a loss.  Carlos has come through with quality starts in 7 of the 9 games, with a 2.47 ERA.  His record in those games is 4-3 (and the team is 5-4), but that speaks more to lack of run support.  Last night was only the third time in those 9 games that St Louis has scored more than 2 runs.

Since he became a member of the rotation beginning in 2015, Martinez has made 34 starts in games after a Cardinal loss.  He has responded with 22 quality starts and 220.2 innings during which he has allowed 189 hits (including 14 home runs) while striking out 219.  He is 17-8 in those games (with three other potential wins lost by the bullpen) with a 2.94 ERA.

The fiery, passionate Martinez seems a good fit for the stopper role.

The Other Starters as Stopper

Lance Lynn has had five opportunities to halt Cardinal losing streaks.  Although St Louis has only won two of those, Lynn has pitched very well in his opportunities as the stopper.  He is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA.  Mike Leake has made 8 starts after a Cardinal loss.  Leake is 2-5 as the stopper (and the team is 2-6 having lost the last four), but his 3.46 ERA in games after a loss suggests that Mike has pitched better than that record indicates.  Michael Wacha (2-1, 5.09 in 7 starts) and Adam Wainwright (3-3, 6.16 in six starts) have struggled most as stoppers thus far.  St Louis is 2-5 when Wacha starts after a loss.

Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil got off to a bad start in his relationship with Cardinal fans.  Recently, he spit up a 3-run, seventh inning lead in a June 7 loss to Cincinnati.  In spite of that slip, Brett has been starting to resemble the pitcher we had hoped to see this year.  He threw a spotless seventh last night (yes, I know he had a 9-run lead at the time), and that difficult inning in Cincinnati was the only time in his last 12 games that he allowed an earned run.

Lots of Help From His Friends

After seeing infrequent offensive support for much of the season – and Martinez has already made three starts this year where he has pitched at least 7.1 innings without allowing a run, but has only won one of those games – Carlos has become the most recent beneficiary of the resurgent Cardinal offense.  The aroused offense tallied 11 runs on 14 hits that included a double and 5 home runs.  Since the second game of the Philadelphia series (the game Nick Pivetta started against them), the Cards have been averaging 6.43 runs per game, while slashing .288/.366/.515.  It’s very encouraging, but there haven’t been an abundance of elite pitchers included in the barrage.

Paul DeJong

Rookie Paul DeJong played igniter last night with 3 hits, 3 runs scored and 3 runs batted in.  Of the 14 major league games he’s played in, 11 have followed Cardinal losses – so this is starting to be business as usual for him.  Paul is now 11 for 40 (.275) in those games.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter’s hitting streak reached ten games with 2 more hits last night.  It was his fourth consecutive game with at least two hits.  He is 17 for 38 (.447) during the streak, with 7 doubles and 4 home runs – a .947 slugging percentage.

The streak raises Carpenter’s June batting average up to .333 (19 for 57), and his slugging percentage up to .667 for the month, with 11 runs batted in – all driven in over the last 10 games.

Carpenter has always hit very well in games after a loss.  He has now played in 356 such games over his career, hitting .294/.390/.480 with 41 home runs.

Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler also singled and homered, driving in 2 runs last night.  Dexter now has hits in 6 of his last 8 games, during which he is hitting .423 (11 for 26) and slugging .846 (2 doubles and 3 home runs).  He has driven in 9 runs in his last 6 games, and now has 30 for the year – 11 of them in June, where he is now hitting .306/.414/.612 for the month with 4 home runs.

Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham was one of the many offensive contributors – he also had a single and a home run.  Tommy has now played in 21 games after a Cardinal loss – games in which he is hitting .313 (20 for 64) with 3 home runs and 11 runs batted in.

Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty was the lone starter not to join in the fun last night.  Stephen’s difficult season continues.  After his 0 for 4 last night, Stephen is hitting just .167 over his last 9 games (5 for 30) with just 1 extra-base hit (a double).  He is down to .243 for the year.

Winning Teams – Like the Brewers – Still Own the Cards

After a comfortable win in the first game of the Milwaukee series, the Cardinals engaged the Brewers in three very tightly contested games – games that weren’t decided until the seventh inning or later.  All three games were eventually won by Milwaukee – the last one by a 6-4 score last night (box score).  You could say that the results of these games were less important than the fact that the Cards were “in” every game (even a game they trailed 6-0 at one point).  But the truth is that this recent series fits neatly into the predominant pattern of the Cardinal season.  They are still the team that blinks.  Now just 10-19 against teams that currently have a winning record (a list that does not at the moment include the defending champion Cubs), the statistical message they are loudly sending is that they are simply are not good enough.  That, at least, is the testimony of the season’s first 65 games.

What is curious about this (so far) disappointing team, is the difficulty we have determining its strengths and weaknesses.  Of all the question marks coming into the season, one area of assumed strength was the bullpen – which has been mostly disastrous this season.  Not that there haven’t been other issues, but I think it’s accurate to say that if the Cardinal bullpen had managed to be just average, this team could very well be in first place.  They certainly would be over .500.

Meanwhile, for the season’s first two months the starting rotations ranked among the elite rotations in baseball while the offense did all it could to undermine their efforts.  As May has faded into June, the offense is beginning to find itself while the rotation has been dutifully melting down.

Michael Wacha’s abbreviated four-inning start last night leaves the rotation with only 3 quality starts and a 5.36 ERA through the first 15 games of June – 10 of which have been losses.

Michael Wacha

On May 19, Wacha walked off the mound having thrown 6 innings of 4-hit shutout ball against the San Francisco Giants.  Even though the bullpen turned his 2-0 lead into an eventual 6-5 loss, optimism was high that the Cardinals had revived the career of the talented but oft-injured right-hander.  At that point, Wacha had pitched 42.2 innings over 7 starts (5 of them quality starts).  He held a 2-1 record (with two other potential wins lost by the bullpen), a 2.74 ERA and a .242 batting average against.

Since that moment, Wacha has mostly unraveled.  In the 5 starts he has made since then, Wacha has lasted at least five innings only once.  He has lasted only 21.1 innings total – during which it has rained hits (30 including 4 home runs) and runs (22 – 21 of them earned).  He is 1-2 with an 8.86 ERA, a .333 batting average against, and a .567 slugging percentage against since May 19.  It’s starting to be quite a while since Michael has been good.

Wacha is one of the pitchers that winning teams have taken advantage of all season.  This was his fifth start against teams that have won more than they’ve lost.  He has no quality starts against them, going 0-3 with a 7.83 ERA, lasting just 23 innings in those starts.  Serving up 35 hits – including 5 home runs – in those games, Michael is seeing the league’s better teams hit .361 and slug .588 against him.

Needless to say, the early season enthusiasm over Michael has cooled considerably.

Winning Teams v the Other Cardinal Starters

While the rotation has hit on some collective rough times this month, over the whole season, when faced with winning teams, most of the Cardinals starters have been appreciably competitive.

Carlos Martinez has been the best, his 2-3 record notwithstanding.  He has produced quality starts in 3 of his 5 games with a 3.00 ERA and a .203 batting average against.  From 2015 when Carlos became a member of the rotation, he has made 31 starts and 2 relief appearances against winning teams, providing a 14-12 record, a 3.29 ERA, and a .226 batting average against.  Twenty of those 31 starts have been quality starts.

Lance Lynn (2-3, 3.09 ERA) and Mike Leake (3-2, 3.29 ERA) have also pitched very well against the better teams they’ve faced.  Lynn has held these clubs to a .176 average.  Leake (who was only 1-8, 4.84 ERA against winning teams last year) has held these teams to a .223 batting average.  He has also walked just 6 in 41 innings over 6 starts.

Adam Wainwright has made 6 such starts so far this year, managing a 3-2 record in spite of a 4.26 ERA and a .328 batting average against.

Seung-hwan Oh

The previous night, it was Kevin Siegrist who surrendered the seventh inning run that would give Milwaukee just enough margin to hold onto the 7-6 victory.  Kevin pitched a flawless seventh last night.  The night before it had been Trevor Rosenthal surrendering 3 eighth-inning runs that served up the second game of the doubleheader to the Brewers by an 8-5 score.  Trevor pitched the eighth again last night, allowing a hit but no damage.

So last night it was Seung-hwan Oh’s turn.  Again.  Entering in the ninth inning of a 4-4 game, Oh served up a single and the two run home run that sealed the three-game losing streak.

Before he came into last Sunday’s ninth inning against Philadelphia, Oh seemed to be the one member of the Cardinal bullpen who looked like he was starting to figure things out.  He had a modest six-game streak of not giving up a run, holding batters to a .174/.208/.217 batting line.  In addition, he had struck out 11 batters in those 6.1 innings.

He picked up that save on Sunday, although not before he allowed 4 hits and turned a 6-3 lead into a 6-5 nail-biter.  Summoned in the eighth-inning in game two of the Brewer series with the bases loaded and facing a 1-run deficit, Seung-hwan gave a hit and a sacrifice fly to let 2 of the 3 runners score.  After last night, the last 16 batters to face him have 7 hits (including a home run) and a sacrifice fly – a .467 batting average and a .667 slugging percentage.  Seung-hwan doesn’t look so fixed anymore.

John Brebbia

If the name John Brebbia meant nothing to you before the season started, you were not alone.  His promotion from Memphis in late May didn’t occasion hordes of media types descending to witness his major league debut.  But there has been little not to like about Brebbia as he continues to get outs in an otherwise out-challenged bullpen.  Brought in yesterday in perhaps his most crucial situation yet (tie game, bases loaded, fifth inning, no one out), John did a very capable job defusing the situation while allowing just one of the runners to score.  He then added a scoreless sixth.

It’s only a total of 8.2 innings over 8 games, but John’s numbers are encouraging – two runs allowed on three hits – a 2.08 ERA and a .103 batting average against.  Serving up one of the Scooter Gennett home runs in Cincinnati on June 6 has been the only blemish on his record so far.

Five of Brebbia’s first eight games have come against winning teams.  They haven’t been terribly high leveraged situations, but he has, nonetheless, thrown 5.2 innings of one-hit scoreless ball in those games.

Matt Carpenter

If you are looking for positives to take away from this game – and in fact this series – you pretty much have the top of the batting order: Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler.

Famously re-inserted into the top of the order nine games ago, Carpenter has responded with a 9 game hitting streak during which he has hit .429 (15 of 35) and slugged .886 (7 doubles and 3 home runs).  All 7 of the doubles have come in the last six games after Matt had hit only 5 doubles through his first 55 games.  Carpenter has also gone 5 games without striking out.

After beginning the month just 2 for his first 19 (.105), Carpenter may have put himself in the player of the month conversation.  He is now hitting .315 and slugging .611 this month.  His June OPS is currently .994.

Dexter Fowler

As Carpenter is starting to make things happen in the leadoff spot, Fowler has been heating up in the second position as well.  In the nine games since Carpenter was switched, Fowler has hit .357 (10 for 28) and slugged .679 (3 doubles and 2 home runs).  He added a home run and a single last night.  After a rough start, Fowler’s June batting line is starting to look very healthy.  In 54 plate appearances this month, Dexter has 7 singles, 3 doubles, 3 home runs, 7 runs scored, 9 runs batted in, and 8 walks – a .283/.389/.543 line that adds up to a not-so-shabby .932 OPS.

Jose Martinez

The Brewers series (in which he started all four games) started on a very high note for Jose Martinez.  He hit two home runs in the first game, drove in another run with a ground ball in the second game, and then added two more RBIs with a triple in the third game.  It finished on a much lower note, as he went hitless in his last seven at bats – including the deflating double play that ended the eighth.

The three extra-base hits from the Milwaukee series notwithstanding, Martinez is just 5 for 26 (.192) this month.

NoteBook

Tonight’s opponent – the Baltimore Orioles – come into the series having lost three of four to the White Sox.  Earlier this season, St Louis played a streak of six straight opponents that had lost their previous series (Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago & Boston).  This was immediately followed by a streak of four straight opponents that had won their previous series (San Francisco, Los Angeles, Colorado & Los Angeles again).  The Orioles will now be St Louis’ fifth straight opponent since LA not to have won its previous series (Chicago, Cincinnati, Philadelphia – which split a four game series, Milwaukee and Baltimore).

Rally Falls One Run Short Again

If May was characterized by a sluggish offense that made a habit of wasting outstanding starting pitching, the 5-9 (so far) June of this strangely symmetrical season has been characterized by a fading rotation wasting some substantial offense.  Last night, the Cards lost their second 7-6 game this month (box score) after Mike Leake dug them a 6-0 hole in the first two innings.  To his credit, Mike battled back to finish six innings with no more damage – giving the Cards a chance to get back in the game.  In the end, though, this was yet another tight game that the Cards could have won, but didn’t.

Winning one-run games has been one of many struggles for this team.  Teams with high character will – over the course of the season – win most of their one-run games.

Now 9-13 on the season, the Cards have fallen to 2-3 in the 5 one-run contests played already this month – games in which the starting pitchers have managed just 1 quality start with a 6.08 ERA.  In just 26.2 innings, the rotation has served up 28 hits (including 7 doubles, a triple, and 4 home runs) while walking 14 other batters in games this month that have ended up as one-run games.

The rotation has now not put together a quality start since Carlos Martinez tossed his shutout against Philadelphia.  Fourteen games into the month of June, the rotation has managed 3 quality starts and holds a 5-5 record with a 5.17 ERA.  They have combined to serve up 11 home runs in 76.2 innings.

Mike Leake

Through his first nine starts, Mike Leake took baseball by storm.  With quality starts in all 9 games, Mike was 5-2 with a league leading 1.91 ERA.  In 4 starts since then, Mike has no quality starts, an 0-4 record, and a 6.20 ERA.  His batting line has fallen from the .210/.242/.339 of those early starts to .316/.370/.500 these last 4 times out.

This was the fifth of his 13 starts that ended as a one-run game, and the first of the five that Mike didn’t contribute a quality start to.  He is 1-2 with a 3.45 ERA in those games.  The Cards are 1-4 in those games.

Other Starters in One-Run Games

Michael Wacha is the starter most frequently involved in one-run games.  Six of his eleven starts have been decided by one run (with St Louis winning only 2 of them).  These include both of his starts this month, a 7-6 loss to Chicago and a 3-2 win against Philadelphia.  Wacha has pitched well enough in these 6 games, with 4 quality starts, a 2-1 record, and a 3.60 ERA.

Carlos Martinez has been the rotation’s best in one-run games so far this year.  Only 4 of his starts have ended in one-run differentials, but the Cards have won 3 of them (4-3 vs Chicago, 2-1 wins against Milwaukee and Los Angeles).  Carlos has 3 quality starts in those games, a 2-1 record and a 0.96 ERA.

Lance Lynn has started three of these games.  He is 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 20.1 innings in them.  St Louis has lost his two non-decisions – including his duel with Clayton Kershaw that wasn’t decided until the thirteenth inning.

Adam Wainwright has started 4 of the one-run games.  He is 1-1 in these games while the team is 2-2.  In those four starts, Adam has no quality starts and a 5.31 ERA.

Kevin Siegrist

Kevin Siegrist pitched the seventh inning and – of course – allowed the run that eventually decided the game.  This was the sixth time this season that Kevin has pitched on consecutive days.  These appearances have totaled 5.1 innings, during which Siegrist has been touched for 6 runs on 10 hits – a 10.13 ERA and a .400 batting average against.  Perhaps a trend to keep an eye on.

Siegrist has been – over his career – one of the team’s best performers in one-run games.  During his first four years, he had appeared in 98 of them, going 9-7 with 30 holds and 2 saves while letting go of a lead just 8 times.  His career ERA in one-run games was 2.35 with a .203 batting average against.  He was especially good last year with an 0.96 ERA and a .160 batting average against in 30 one-run games (28 innings).

In 2017, Kevin has now pitched in 8 one-run games, accounting for 7.1 innings.  This was the first run he has allowed in any of those games.

Offense Starting to Find Its Way

Although the Phillies and Brewers don’t boast elite pitching staffs, the Cards are starting put together a little bit of offensive consistency over their last five games.  With the 6 runs last night, St Louis is now at 30 runs over these games – although they haven’t always done it with an over-abundance of hits.  Last night they had a 4-run second and a two-run homer in the eighth, but finished with only 7 hits on the night.  For the month of June, the team batting average slips to .249.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter hit leadoff for the eighth straight game last night, and ran his corresponding hitting streak to eight games.  He singled, doubled (his fifth straight game with a double), walked, was hit by a pitch and drove in his ninth run of the hitting streak.  Carp is now 13 for his last 31 (.419), with 8 of the hits for extra bases (including 3 home runs) – an .871 slugging percentage.

The streak pushes his overall average for the month of June to .300 (15 for 50) and his slugging percentage to .580.

Aledmys Diaz

Aledmys Diaz hit the two-run eighth-inning home run that narrowed what had been a 6-0 lead to what would be a 7-6 final.  Aledmys also had a single and ended up scoring two runs on the night.  He has 3 hits in his last six at bats, and is now back over .260 for the season (.262), but is at .279 for the month of June (12 for 43) with a .512 slugging percentage (he has 4 doubles and 2 home runs this month).

Aledmys didn’t contribute much offensively during the 17 one-run games played in April and May (he slashed .182/.217/.242 in 66 at bats in those games), but he has been a driving force in the five played so far in June.  In games that have ended up as 3-2 and 7-6 losses against Chicago, 3-2 and 6-5 wins against Philadelphia, and last night’s 7-6 loss to Milwaukee, Diaz is 8 for 19 (.421) with 5 extra-base hits and an .895 slugging percentage.  In the second half of last season (after returning from the disabled list), Diaz hit .349 in the team’s final 11 one-run games.

Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty slides to 0 for his last 8 after last night’s 0 for 4.  He hasn’t driven in a run – and in fact has only one extra-base hit – in his last 5 games – a span during which he is hitting .188 (3 for 16) and slugging .250.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko got things rolling with a two-run double against Nick Pivetta in the middle game of the Philadelphia series.  He hasn’t had a hit since then – a streak that has now reached 11 at bats following his 0-for-3 last night.  Gyorko has fallen back under .300 to .296 for the season, and is slashing .244/.289/.293 for the month of June, so far.

One of the interesting things about the recent offensive surge is that the Cards have done it with little contribution from their third and fourth place hitters.  And just to be clear, here, a 3-for-16 skid or an 0-for-11 isn’t anything to be overly concerned about.  It’s the kind of lull that attaches itself to everybody at some point during the long season.  Gyorko’s 10 for 41 July (which includes no home runs and only 2 doubles) is more cause for concern, but even that is nothing to panic over.  If the guys who are hot keep doing what they’re doing until Piscotty and Gyorko come around, this offense will be just fine.

From the All-Star break through the end of the season, St Louis was 17-8 in one-run games.  A principle factor in this success was the bat of Jedd Gyorko, who hit .286/.348/.631 with 9 home runs in those games.  Jedd has played in 18 of St Louis’ first 22 one-run games of 2017, hitting just .215 (14 for 65) with just one home run (hit off of CC Sabathia in the eighth inning in New York on April 15 as the Cards scored two late runs to trim a 3-0 deficit to a 3-2 final).

Greg Garcia

Greg Garcia took over for Kolten Wong, who left the game with tightness in his forearm (and has since returned to the disabled list).  Greg has been a very useful role player, but he has also struggled at the plate this month.  He is now 1 for 14 in June (.071) after his 0-for-2 last night.

Last year, Greg hit a solid .268 in 30 one-run games (19 for 71).  He is now 1 for 19 (.053) in 16 one-run games in 2017.

Dodgers Win on Barrage of 1-2 Hits

The impressive run of starting pitching had to end at some point – and that some point was the fourth inning of last night’s 7-3 loss to the Dodgers (box score).  After Chase Utley got the Dodgers started with a second inning home run on a 1-2 pitch, three of his teammates followed suit with devastating hits on 1-2 pitches.

With a runner at first and two out and the Cardinals leading 3-1, Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, and starting pitcher Kenta Maeda hit successive ground balls that found holes, putting Los Angeles ahead to stay.  The at bats by Hernandez and Maeda were most impressive as they lasted 7 pitches each.

With the loss, the Cardinals have now dropped 6 of their last 8.

Michael Wacha

Mostly impressive in his return this season, Michael Wacha endured his worst start of 2017, lasting 4 innings and allowing 6 runs on 7 hits.  After an solid April, Wacha’s May has been a little ordinary.  In four starts (with one more, possibly, remaining), Wacha is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and a .288 batting average against.

Wacha gave up a total of 5 hits on 1-2 pitches last night (including Utley’s home run).  None of those hits came off the fastball.  Perhaps batters are starting to look for that breaking pitch when they get behind in the count?

Brett Cecil

Say this for the Cardinals prize offseason acquisition, Brett Cecil.  He finds a way.  In last night’s contest, with runners at first and second and no one out, Brett uncorks two wild pitches and then serves up a double allowing all of the runs.  The game had been a one-run affair up until that point.  For the season, 11 of 23 runners Cecil has inherited have come home to roost (47.8%).  This is now three times he’s come on with two runners on and allowed all of them to score.  He has also inherited a bases-loaded jam and allowed all of those runners to score.

Kevin Siegrist

Kevin Siegrist turned in a good inning – albeit after the event was already decided.  In 9.2 innings this month, Kevin has a 2.79 ERA and 10 strikeouts.  He is starting to look like Kevin again.

Earlier this season, Kevin had lost the ability to get swinging strikes.  Last night, the Dodger hitters missed on 4 of the 7 swings they took against Siegrist.  All three at bats, by the way, went to 1-2 (and one of those resulted in a hit).  So far this month, 26 of the 37 batters Kevin’s faced (70.3%) have seen their at bat end before Siegrist has thrown ball two.

Anxious Offense Struggles Again

Again, last night, the offense endured another long silent stretch.  After a loud 3-run first, they didn’t score again over the last eight innings of the game.  During the 8-game slide, St Louis has hit 4 home runs and averaged just 3.88 runs per game.

When guys like Kenta Maeda shut down the Cardinal offense, they make it look so amazingly easy.  Neither Maeda nor Hyun-Jin Ryu threw with amazing velocity.  They nibbled with breaking balls on the corners of the strike zone and waited for the aggressive Cardinal hitters to get themselves out.  Throughout all of baseball (courtesy of baseball reference) only 28.4% of all at bats end before the pitcher throws ball one – and hitters usually prosper when that happens.  They slash .278/.287/.454 on those pitches.

Last night, 35.1% of the Cardinal plate appearances were over before the hitter saw ball one (this in spite of the fact that neither Dodger pitcher was really “coming after” the hitters.  St Louis slashed .182/.308/.364 in those at bats.  Over the last eight games, Cardinal batsmen are done before ball one 34.6% of the time, slashing just .257/.263/.367 when that happens.

It’s a symptom of a loss of confidence at the plate.  Hopefully, it will be temporary.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko continues to hit, even as the team fades around him.  He drove in the game’s first two runs with a double and had a later single.  Jedd has now hit safely in 22 of his last 27 games (25 of them starts).  He is 40 for 109 in those games, including 8 doubles, 2 triples and 5 home runs – a .367 batting average accompanied by a .615 slugging percentage.  He is now hitting .338 this month (27 for 80) with 3 home runs and 12 runs batted in.  He is 11 for 32 (.344) over these last 8 games.

On the double, Gyorko jumped on a first-pitch hanging curveball and drilled it just fair down the leftfield line.  Gyorko is now 11 for 23 when hitting the first pitch thrown him (.478).  He later singled on a 1-0 pitch.  Jedd is 20 for 53 (.377) this month when his at bat doesn’t make it to ball two.

That first-inning double was Jedd’s ninth of the season, tying – in 137 at bats – the total amount of doubles he hit in 400 at bats last year.  He has never hit more than 26 in any season.  He also has hit as many triples already this year (2) as he had hit in his entire career previously.

Jedd – after bouncing into 46 double plays over his first 4 seasons, has grounded into just 1 so far in 2017.

Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina extended his hitting streak to 14 games with two singles last night.  It hasn’t been the most torrid hitting streak on record.  This was only the third multi-hit game in the streak, and his average has been .279 (17 for 61).  He has not drawn a walk through the entire streak.

In fact, over his last 37 plate appearances, he has gone to three-ball counts only 3 times (8.1%).  For the season, only Randal Grichuk (among starters) makes it to three-balls in an at bat less frequently than Yadi (11.8% v 11.9%).  This is significantly below Molina’s 16.0% of last year.

Matt Carpenter

After getting two singles on Wednesday night, Matt Carpenter was 0-for-3 with a hit-by-pitch last night.  Matt is now 7 for his last 48 (.146).  His batting average for the season has fallen to .229 – and for the month of May he is down to .216 (16 for 74).  During the last 8 games, Carpenter is 5 for 33 (.152).

In three of his four plate appearances, Carpenter was challenged with first-pitch strikes.  He has seen strike one in 15 of his last 21 PAs (71%) and is only 4 for 19 (.211) in those resulting at bats.

The thrust of this is, I think, to keep from getting into three-ball counts against Matt.  This year, so far, Carpenter gets into three-ball counts a team-leading 36.3% of the time, and hits .333/.667/.788 once he gets there.  But if his at bat is over before ball two, he slides to just a .167 average (12 for 72).

Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty’s 0-for-4 wrapped up a 1 for 13 series.  He is now hitting .158 (3 for 19) since his return from the DL, .214 (6 for 28) this month, and .224 for the year.

Piscotty hit the first pitch thrown to him twice last night.  In the first inning he flied to center on a tailing slider from Maeda.  In the sixth, he grounded to first on a changeup away from Ryu.  Over all of baseball, hitters who hit the first pitch are slashing .338/.346/.582.  Piscotty is just 3 for 13 (.231) – all singles as he is mostly disinclined to wait for a hitter’s pitch.  So far this month, 13 of his 32 plate appearances (40.6%) end before he sees ball one.  Of the regulars, the next highest is Gyorko at 36.9%.  As I noted earlier, across all of baseball, only 28.4% of PAs end before the pitcher has thrown ball one.

This number aligns with what I’ve seen from Stephen – especially since his return from the DL.  A lot of anxiety at the plate.