Tag Archives: Grichuk

Young Cardinals Respond After a Loss

One of the healthiest signs of the Cardinals’ recent resurgence (and they’ve won 7 of their last 9) is how they have started to respond after a loss.  It’s a number I keep an eye on.  Every team (except maybe Cleveland) loses a game now and then.  That’s baseball.  But teams with character tend to respond the next day.  One of the principle things that separate contenders from second-division finishers is the ability to stay out of losing streaks and return quickly to their winning ways.

This was a pronounced problem for this team through most of the year.  They began the year with three consecutive three-game losing streaks.  They fought their way out of that hole with a six-game road winning streak in early May to pull themselves into first place – only to promptly lose 18 of their next 25 games, including losing streaks of 3, 4, and 7 games.  After a surprising 8-game winning streak in early August thrust them back into a tie for the division lead, they went on to lost 9 of the next 14 games – a stretch that included two more 3-game losing streaks.

This is part of the long-standing concern I’ve had with the character of this ball club.  Do they have the strength of will to stand up and stop the losing trends before they wreck the season?

Among the many changes in the team since August faded into September is a new resilience.  Now, with a clubhouse full of untested rookies, this veteran, mostly underachieving team, has suddenly re-discovered its toughness.

With last night’s 4-1 victory over Pittsburgh (box score) as an answer for the previous night’s shutout loss in San Diego, the Cardinals have now stopped all of their last four losing streaks at one game.  They are now 15-8 after a loss since the All-Star Break, and have finally pulled to 35-33 on the season after losing the game before.

As usual – recently, anyway – it was Cardinal pitching that led the way.  With rookie Luke Weaver and four relievers (two of them also rookies) showing the way, the Cards have now gone 7 straight games without allowing more than four runs (you may remember that they went 12 straight games in August allowing at least 5 runs a game).  Over their last 12 games, they have given more than 4 runs only twice, while posting a 2.44 ERA.

In the beginning of the season, we thought that our pitching was going to be the equalizer.  For most of the season, that has not proved to be the case.  But as we come down the stretch, the arms are proving to be the advantage that we hoped they would be.

Luke Weaver

The evening was highlighted by another impressive performance from Weaver, who won his fifth-consecutive decision.  He allowed 7 singles over 5.2 innings, but no runs.  Since his recall from Memphis, Luke has pitched in 5 games (4 starts) with a 1.32 ERA over 27.1 innings, and a .230/.280/.320 batting line against.  Luke is making a strong case that he is done with the minor leagues.

Even though Lance Lynn has been “the horse” of the staff in the season’s second half, due to lack of run support, St Louis has lost all of his last three starts, which means the burden of putting a halt to the losing streaks has rested firmly on the young shoulders of Mr. Weaver.  He has not blinked, going 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those games.

Since the All-Star Break, Luke has pitched in 6 games (5 as a starter) with a chance to stop a losing streak.  He is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in those games.  All of his victories this season have come after a Cardinal loss.  In fact, all 6 of his career wins have followed Cardinal defeats.

Other Starters After A Loss

As in most other categories, Lance Lynn is distinguishing himself when given the opportunity to stop a losing streak – especially in the season’s second half.  Since the break, Lance has gone to the hill 6 times after a Cardinal loss, providing 5 quality starts, a 3-0 record, and a 2.23 ERA.  For the season, he has been a solid 5-3 in 13 such starts, with a 3.60 ERA.  In the two years prior to the elbow surgery that cost him all of 2016, Lance had made 28 starts after a Cardinal loss, going 14-9 with a 2.54 ERA.

There is a significant amount of statistical evidence that supports Lynn as one of the top echelon pitchers in the National League.  With so many of the pitchers that we are counting on next year being either exceedingly young (Weaver, Alex Reyes, Flaherty, Alcantara) or decidedly injury prone (Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha), the Cardinals might be well served to make an effort to hold on to a top of the rotation starter.  One of my favorite posts of the year dealt with Lance’s toughness.  He has only gotten more valuable to this team as the season has progressed.

Carlos Martinez has been more up-and-down this season than management would like, but over the course of the entire season, he has responded better than any other Cardinal pitcher after a loss. Carlos has made 10 such starts this season, producing 8 quality starts, a 4-3 record, a 2.51 ERA, and a batting line against of .196/.276/.290.  In 68 innings following a Cardinal loss, Carlos has struck out 72 and allowed just 4 home runs.

Over the last two seasons, Carlos has had 24 opportunities to play stopper.  He is 12-6 with a 2.67 ERA in those games.

Wacha and Wainwright have lagged a bit in this category.  Both have made 12 such starts, and both have managed just 5 quality starts, with ERAs of 4.76 and 5.32 respectively.  Their won-lost records, though, have both been solid.  Wacha is 5-3 and Waino is 7-3 in those games.

Over the last three years, Wacha has pitched in 36 games (35 starts) following a Cardinal loss.  His ERA in those affairs (in 198 innings) is only 4.64.  He is, however, 15-8.

Dating back to his first year in the rotation (2007), Adam Wainwright has pitched in 137 games (134 starts) after a Cardinal loss.  He is 70-34 with a 3.48 ERA in 882 innings in those games.

John Brebbia

As John Brebbia’s rookie season winds down, his effectiveness is becoming more hit and miss.  Yesterday, he allowed the only walk surrendered by a Cardinal pitcher, and watched Pittsburgh turn it into the only run they would score that night.  John has now allowed a run in 3 of his last 7 games – totaling 6.2 innings.  In those innings he has 9 strikeouts (a higher rate than through most of the year), and has allowed only 5 hits.  But he has also walked 3 batters, hit another, and given 4 extra-base hits (including a home run).

Jose Martinez

A taught game turned last night – as they so often do – on one key hit in a big situation.  To nobody’s surprise, that hit came – again – off the bat of rookie Jose Martinez.  St Louis finished the evening with only 5 hits as the offense has begun to cool a bit.  But 2 of the 5 belonged to Martinez, who pushed his hitting streak to 10 games – even though he has only started 8 of them.  Jose is 15 for 31 (.484) during the streak, with 3 doubles and 3 home runs – an .871 slugging percentage.  Furthermore, since taking possession of the clean-up spot six games ago, Martinez is hitting .500 (11 for 22) with a 1.045 slugging percentage.  In his last 6 games, Jose has scored 6 runs and driven in 8.  In 39 games (21 starts) since the All-Star Break, Jose is hitting .360 (32 for 89), with 5 doubles, 8 home runs, and a .685 slugging percentage.

If it were me, I would make the other pitchers in the league prove to me that they can get Jose out before I would think about removing him from the line-up.

Randal Grichuk

With competition of playing time heating up, Randal Grichuk has picked an inopportune time to go into a bit of a tailspin.  With his 0 for 4 last night, Randal is down to .180 (50 for 107) over his last 15 games.

Randal is one of the players who hasn’t been especially productive in games after a loss.  He is now down to .199 for the season (32 for 161) in 45 games after a loss.  This includes a .177 average (11 for 62) in the second half. For his career, Grichuk has played in 178 games (140 as a starter) after the Cards had lost the game before, getting 575 at bats in these games.  He has hit 28 home runs and driven in 78 runs – including the game-winner 8 times.  But he is also hitting just .228 in those games with 197 strikeouts.

Alex Mejia

With Matt Carpenter back in the lineup, St Louis didn’t need Alex Mejia to play third last night.  So they moved him to shortstop instead.  Alex responded with an 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.  Alex is 1 for 17 (.059) with 9 strikeouts since his call-up.

Elimination Season Continues

With last night’s 5-4 win by Colorado over the Dodgers, San Francisco and Philadelphia were mathematically eliminated from playoff consideration.  They become baseball’s first two teams to be officially eliminated from everything this year.

Six Inning Effort From Wacha Ends August on Up Note

On the last day of August, Cardinal right-hander Michael Wacha put an end to an unsettling month with six excellent innings, leading St Louis to a 5-2 conquest of the San Francisco Giants (box score).  Both for Michael personally, and for the entire pitching staff, last month could not have ended fast enough.  Wacha hadn’t made it past the fourth inning in any of his previous three starts – a span that featured 24 hits in 12.1 innings, including 4 home runs. He was 0-3 with a 10.22 ERA and a .414/.453/.690 batting line against.  The team finished the month with just 13 quality starts and a 4.62 ERA.

For Wacha it was a needed boost, as he was in complete control.  He threw more than 11 pitches in only two of his six innings, and more than 20 only in the nettlesome fifth inning when the Giants scratched across their only run against him.

Even when he has struggled in the game as a whole, Wacha’s first innings have been excellent all year.  In his 9 starts in the second half, he has given no runs and only 5 hits in his first innings.  Through his 25 starts for the season, Michael carries a 1.08 ERA with a .187/.253/.231 batting line against him in the first.  Of the 15 home runs he’s allowed this season, only one has been hit in the first inning – and that came back on April 14 in New York.

Tyler Lyons

Tyler Lyons needed only 10 pitches to dispatch San Francisco in the eighth – securing his nineteenth consecutive scoreless appearance covering 17.2 innings, during which he has allowed just 3 hits.  He finished August allowing just 1 hit in 11.1 innings with 14 strikeouts.

Moreover, Tyler has flourished late in games.  This season in 11.1 innings before the seventh, Tyler’s ERA is an uninspiring 7.15 with a .292/.382/.500 batting line against.  In 31.2 innings from the seventh inning on, Lyons’ ERA is a microscopic 0.85 with a dominating batting line against of .147/.244/.186.

Also Nettlesome – The Ninth Inning

It didn’t cost them the game, but the ninth inning continues to be a concern.  San Fran plated a run on back-to-back doubles – the second of which would have been a two-run home run but for a curious replay overturn.  The Cardinals thus finished August with a 6.53 ninth-inning ERA.  Since the All-Star Break, St Louis has scuffled along with a 5.67 ninth-inning ERA – pushing the ERA in that inning for the season to 4.05.

Late-game effectiveness out of the pen continues to be a concern.

John Brebbia

John Brebbia allowed the doubles and the run (and almost two runs) last night.  After what has really been an excellent rookie season, John hit a little speed bump in August.  He finished the month with a 3.95 ERA in 13.2 innings.  Batters hit only .176 against him, but 8 of the 9 hits he gave up were for extra bases – including 3 home runs.

Since the All-Star Break, John has pitched 20 innings before the eighth inning and 20 innings in the eighth and ninth.  Before the eighth inning, Brebbia has allowed no runs and only 3 hits.  His second-half ERA in the eighth and ninth innings is 5.40.

Offense Finishes Month Strong

As they did for the most part over the entire month, the Cards finished August scoring 5 more runs.  In 28 August games, St Louis scored 162 runs (5.79 per game).  Since the All-Star Break they have scored 229 runs in 45 games (5.09 per game).

Fourth-Inning Magic

Leading 2-0, the Cardinals almost opened the game up in the “magic” fourth inning.  A leadoff single from Yadier Molina and a one-out double from Kolten Wong put runners at second and third.  Giant starter Matt Cain wriggled out of trouble by striking out Randal Grichuk and getting Wacha to bounce out.

Even so, the events continued the team’s strange affinity for the fourth inning.  Throughout the month of August, St Louis hit .358/.432/.650 in the fourth inning, while scoring 35 runs.  All of those totals were the highest of any inning last month.  Since the All-Star Break, those figures are .346/.397/.602 with 46 runs scored. Of those only the on base percentage isn’t the highest of any inning (St Louis has been reaching base at a .443 clip in the eighth inning since the break).

For the season, St Louis has scored 101 runs in the fourth inning – 21 more than in any other inning.  The team is hitting .306/.370/.516 in that inning.

Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham continues to be front and center as an offensive force for the Cards.  He added 3 more hits last night including an opposite-field double high off the right-field wall that would have been a home run in most other parks.  Tommy’s hitting streak now stretches to six games, during which he is hitting .476 (10 for 21), slugging 1.000 (2 doubles and 3 home runs), getting on base at a .577 clip (4 walks and a hit by pitch), scoring 6 runs and driving in 8.

In 123 plate appearances in 28 games last month, Tommy finished August with 20 singles, 6 doubles, 5 home runs, 21 runs scored, 19 walks, 3 hit-by-pitches, and 1 sacrifice bunt.  This added up to a batting line of .310/.434/.520.  Tommy’s line is now .327/.433/.537 with 8 home runs since the All-Star Break.

Tommy Pham is having the time of his life.

After grounding out in the first, Tommy reached base in his last four plate appearances.  He singled in the third, doubled in the fifth, drove in a run with a seventh-inning single, and drove in another with a hit-by-pitch in the eighth inning.  Since the All-Star Break, Tommy is hitting .300 in the first four innings (24 for 80) with 2 home runs.  From the fifth inning on, Tommy has had 103 plate appearances that have led to 19 singles, 4 doubles, 6 home runs, 18 runs batted in, 18 walks, and 2 hit-by-pitches – a batting line of .349/.476/.614.

For the season, Tommy is a .282 hitter through the first four innings with 5 home runs.  From the fifth inning on, Pham’s line is .335/.435/.594 with 14 home runs.

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk added two hits including a home run.  He homered in the last game in Milwaukee and almost tied the game with a ninth inning home run.  Since the All-Star Break, Grichuk is carrying a .282 batting average (37 for 131) and a .580 slugging percentage (8 doubles, 2 triples, and 9 home runs).  That will play.

Four of those home runs have now been hit in the second inning, and 7 of the 9 have come before the sixth.  Since the break, Grichuk is a .358 hitter before the sixth inning (24 for 67) with a .791 slugging percentage.  Thereafter, he hits .203 (13 for 64).

Dexter Fowler

After coming smoking-hot off the disabled list, Dexter Fowler is starting to cool off.  With his 0 for 5 last night, Fowler is now hitless in his last ten at bats, and 2 for 19 (.105) over his last 5 games.  He has 8 strikeouts in those games.

Dexter struck out with Matt Carpenter at second base to end the first inning.  Dexter just has never bonded with the first inning this year.  Since the break, Fowler is now 4 for 17 (.235), and 15 for 74 (.203) for the year in the first inning.

Re-Assessing Milwaukee

Earlier this year, I speculated as to whether Milwaukee could be a winning team in 2017.  There is still September to go, but 132 games into their season, they are holding on to a 68-64 record – even after they got pushed around a little bit last night by the Cards (box score of the 10-2 win).

As I have watched them this year – and even conceding that they have played well against the Cardinals – I am less impressed with them than I was earlier this year.  Granted, that last night was not their sharpest game.  Even so, my late season perception of them is a team that plays mediocre on defense and all their hitters are sort of the same kind.  They will hit their home runs – especially in their band-box home park – but don’t do much else offensively.  It seems they all hit in the .240 – .270 range and don’t walk a whole lot.  Their team batting line isn’t astonishing at .249/.320/.434 (the major league average is .255/.325/.427). Meanwhile, no team in baseball strikes out like the Brewers.  At 1299 whiffs already this season, they are 16 ahead of second place Tampa Bay, and 75 ahead of third-place Oakland.

Their big improvement this year has been the pitching.  If the pitching stays strong, they have a chance to break .500.

As to the Cardinals, with the way the offense has surged in the second half, they don’t need a whole lot of help.  If your defense is going to give them a handful of outs plus 9 walks from the pitching staff, then St Louis is likely to put up double-figure runs on your team.  With last night’s runs, the Cards are scoring 5.85 runs per game this month, and 5.09 runs since the All-Star Break.

Tommy Pham

The Summer of Pham is still lingering.  Tommy Pham was in the middle of much of the offense last night, with a single, a double and two walks.  His August batting average rises to .283 (26 for 92), while his on base percentage rises to .416 (19 walks and two hit-by-pitches).  Since the break, Tommy is hitting .312 (45 for 154) with a .422 on base percentage (28 walks).

Paul DeJong

Rookie shortstop Paul DeJong continues his flirtation with the .300 mark.  He sits at .299 after his 2-for-5 game.  He now has a six-game hitting streak, during which he is hitting .346 (9 for 26). He is up to .321 for the month of August (35 for 109) and .290 for the second half (51 for 176) with 11 home runs.

Luke Voit

Welcome back Luke Voit, who chipped in with 2 hits and 4 runs batted in.  He has been back and forth to Memphis, and when he’s been up, playing time has been scarce.  Luke has played just 17 major league games this month, making only 3 starts.  Still, he’s contributed a .310 average (9 for 29) and 8 runs batted in.

Kolten Wong

Amidst all of the offensive fireworks from last night, one down note was the ending of Kolten Wong’s 10-game hitting streak.  He had hit .390 (16 for 41) and slugged .610 (3 doubles and 2 home runs) during the streak.  He scored 7 runs and drove in 8.

Randal Grichuk

Not too long ago, Randal Grichuk was riding the wave of three-straight, two-hit games.  In the 7 games since the last of those, Randal is just 2 for 22 (.091).  He is back down to .247 for the month (21 for 85), and .237 for the year.  Right field is open for whoever wants to hit his way into the position.

Luke Weaver

In the frequently pitching-challenged month of August, Luke Weaver has been a breath of life.  He has now made 4 appearances in August (3 starts) with a 3-0 record, a 1.71 ERA, and a .218 batting average against.  Apparently management is convinced.  One would suppose that Luke’s success gave them the confidence to send Mike Leake to Seattle.

Eleven Runs Is Enough – Barely – In One-Run Victory

For the fifth time in their last 12 games, the St Louis Cardinals scored in double figures in a razor-thin 11-10 victory over Pittsburgh (box score).  It’s only the sixteenth time this century that the Cardinals scored ten or more runs and were still involved in a one-run game.  They are now 12-4 in those games.  This was the first such game since May 4, 2015, when they edged the Cubs 10-9.

Admittedly, they haven’t been battering the best of pitching staffs – a lot of the runs have been scored against Cincinnati, Atlanta and Pittsburgh – but the streak has been impressive.  And even though they didn’t throw up a lot of runs in the two games against Boston, they still put together grinding at bats and ended up with a lot of hits. These days the offense goes about its business with a lot of confidence.

Over the last 12 games they have scored 97 runs (8.08 per game) with a .325 team batting average and a .561 team slugging percentage.  With 3 more home runs last night, the Cards have drilled 18 in the last 12 games.  For the month, now, St Louis is scoring 6.53 runs per game and hitting .297.  In 34 games since the All-Star Break, St Louis averages 5.24 runs per game with a .279 batting average.

This is all very encouraging.  Still, one-run games present an on-going struggle.  Even with last night’s win, this team is 3-4 in August, 6-7 in the second half, and 19-23 for the season in one-run games.

Paul DeJong

If memory serves me correctly, Paul DeJong began the season as the Cardinals’ eleventh-rated prospect.  He didn’t make his big league debut until game number 47.  Last night was his sixty-sixth start of the season – now, exactly half of the Cardinal games.

I point this out to add some context to the fact that (after 3 more hits including a home run last night) DeJong is now sixth on the team in hits (81); tied for sixth in doubles (17); leading the team (by three) in home runs (19); and seventh in runs batted in (46) – all while spotting the rest of the team half a season’s head start.

Paul has been especially torrid of late.  With the hits last night, DeJong will carry an eight-game hitting streak into this afternoon’s contest, during which he has gone 16 for 33 (.485), with 4 doubles and 3 home runs (.879 slugging percentage).  He has also now hit in 13 of his last 14.  During this streak, Paul is 25 for 62, including 4 doubles and 5 home runs.  He is hitting .403, slugging .710, and has driven in 14 runs in his last 14 games – 10 of them over the last 8.  DeJong is now hitting .352 (and slugging .620) this month, and is up to .297 since the All-Star Break with 10 home runs.

I sincerely hope prospects 1 through 10 prosper as well as Mr. DeJong.

Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk chimed in with two hits for the second straight game, and scored two runs last night.  Grichuk has been very much a factor in the recent scoring binge.  Over the last 12 games, Grichuk is now 16 for 48, with 3 doubles, 2 triples and 2 home runs. He has hit .333 in those games, with a .604 slugging percentage, 9 runs batted in, and 10 runs scored.  Since the All-Star Break, Randal is 30 for 97 (.309) with 6 home runs.

Greg Garcia

With the red-hot Kolten Wong being given a day off, the Cards turned to Greg Garcia.  Garcia did hit best Wong impersonation, as he responded with 2 singles, 2 runs scored and a terrific play on a ground ball over the second base bag.

It’s hard, really, to tell how good Garcia could be if he got every day at bats.  Mike Matheny, though, has sought opportunities to get him starts.  With this start at second, and five starts at third, Garcia has started half of the last 12 games, and has contributed as consistently as anyone in the lineup.  He is 6 for 20 with 7 walks over the last 12 games – a .300 batting average and a .481 on base percentage.  Greg is hitting .302 in the season’s second half (13 for 43) with 9 walks – leading to a .423 on base percentage.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko’s second half slump continues to eat him alive.  After his 0 for 5 last night, Jedd has hit only .222 in 27 at bats over the last 12 games (of which he has played in 8 and started just 7).  Jedd is only 9 for 46 in August (.196), and has now fallen to .188 (19 for 101) in the second half.

Jedd has now played in 6 of the 7 one-run games this month.  He has three singles in 23 at bats, with 1 walk and no runs batted in – a .130/.167/.130 batting line.  Since the break, Jedd has hit just .154 (6 for 39) in 12 one-run games.  He has just one extra-base hit in those at bats (a double), and has just 2 runs batted in.  For the season, he is a .222 hitter (28 for 126) in one-run games.

Pitching Concerns

All of the recent offense has masked – to some extent – a pitching staff that is in a little bit of a free fall.  With last night’s extra excitement, the Cards have now given up at least 5 runs in each of the last 7 games.  The ERA for the month now sits at 4.60 with a .281 batting average against.

In the seven one-run games this team has played in August, the bullpen has now pitched 19.1 innings with a 5.59 ERA.  Over the course of the season, the Cardinal bullpen has a 4.00 ERA in the 42 one-run games they’ve played.  That kind of performance will almost always guarantee a losing record in one-run contests.

Matthew Bowman

Of all of last night’s pitching struggles, the most concerning may have been Matt Bowman’s.  Brought in in the ninth to protect a three-run lead, Matthew – whose command is one of his strengths – loaded the bases with two walks and a hit batsman.  Two of those runners ended up scoring as Pittsburgh nearly tied the game in the ninth without benefit of a hit.

Matthew has been fading a bit lately.  In the season’s second half his ERA is hovering at 3.75 through 12 innings, during which he has walked 5 and hit two.

Perhaps more troubling is the fact that last night was the sixth one-run game that Bowman has worked in since the All-Star Break.  He has lasted only 2.1 innings in those 6 games while serving up 4 runs on 3 hits (including a home run), 3 walks and 2 hit batsmen.  These batters have combined for a .300/.533/.600 batting line.  For the season Matthew’s ERA in 26 one-run games (covering 20.1 innings) is a concerning 5.75.

With Trevor Rosenthal out for a while, Mike Matheny will be turning to Bowman in the late innings of close games.  He will almost certainly get save opportunities.  This can’t be a situation he continues to struggle in.

NoteBook

With 22 runs, the Cardinals have already scored more runs in the first two games of this series than they have scored in any series since they scored 26 runs in four games against Miami from July 3 through 6.  This is, of course, if you consider the Kansas City series to be two, 2-game series.  The Cards scored 37 runs in those four games – 21 in the two played in KC, and 16 in the two played at home.

With 17 runs, the Cardinals have also allowed more runs scored against them in the first two games of this series than they have allowed in any series since that Miami series.  The Marlins scored 23 over those four games.

Cardinals Answer Sunday’s Loss With Another Loss

Stinging from a disappointing loss in the last game of the home stand, the semi-hot Cardinals invaded Boston last night, hoping to make a statement.  They did, with a humbling 10-4 beating at the hands of the Red Sox (box score).  At the end of the fifth inning, the Cards were already behind 9-0 and had grounded into a triple play.

For the season, St Louis is still 28-29 in games after a loss – something hard for an over-.500 team to do, although fairly consistent for a team that has already suffered through 8 losing streaks of at least 3 games.

With that being noted, it should also be pointed out that this team has been much better lately about responding after a loss.  In twelve such opportunities since the All-Star Break, St Louis is now 8-4.

More concerning is the continuing slide of the pitching staff.  With last night’s 10-run, 15-hit pounding in just 8 innings, the Cards are holding a 5.60 ERA over their last 6 games.  The starters have contributed just 2 quality starts, and have borne the brunt of the assault with a 6.32 ERA over those games.  The team ERA for the month of August swells to 4.13.

The offense has shown a bit of a spark recently, but any real hope that the Cardinals have of being significant in October depends on the pitching staff being the strength that we anticipated it would be in April.

Mike Leake

Mike Leake has been a little bit in the epi-center of the recent pitching downturn.  This was the second of the six games that Mike has started.  He has now been slapped for 13 runs (12 earned) in his last 9.1 innings.  In 3 August starts Mike is 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA.  He now has just 2 quality starts in his last 8 trips to the mound.  His ERA over those starts sits at 6.39 with a .371 batting average against.  He has lost 9 of his last 11 decisions.

It has been a long time since Mike has been good.

Leake is also now 3-8 in 14 starts this season in games after a loss – although in fairness he’s pitched better in these games than that record would suggest.  He has made 8 quality starts in those games, and his 4.00 ERA isn’t that bad.  It should be pointed out that last night was the fifth time in Mike’s 24 starts that his offense scored no runs for him while he was in the game.

Other Starters After a Loss

Lance Lynn will take the mound tonight with the Cardinals riding a two-game losing streak.  Lance has absolutely thrived in this role in the season’s second half.  Since the All-Star Break, Lance has made 4 starts following a Cardinal loss.  He has thrown quality starts in all four games, going 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA.  He is 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA this year in 11 starts after a loss.  Over his career, Lance has pitched in 84 games after a Cardinal loss (69 of them starts).  He is 39-21 lifetime with a 3.47 ERA in those games.

While he has had intermittent struggles, Carlos Martinez has also excelled in the stopper’s role.  He has taken the mound 10 times this year following a Cardinal loss.  Carlos is only 4-3 in those games, but with 8 quality starts, a 2.51 ERA and a .196 batting average against.  Over the last two years, Carlos has had 24 opportunities to pitch after a Cardinal loss.  He has produced 16 quality starts, a 12-6 record, a 2.67 ERA, and a .212 batting average against.

They haven’t all been works of art (he has a 4.84 ERA in 11 such starts), but Adam Wainwright does lead the staff in victories after a defeat.  He is 7-3 after a loss this year, and 71-34 in that situation over his career.

Overall, Michael Wacha hasn’t pitched as well in these games as he has following a victory.  He has started ten times following a loss, with only 4 quality starts and a 4.58 ERA.  He is, however, 4-2 in those games.  Over his career, Wacha is 19-11 after a loss, albeit with only a 4.47 ERA.

Matthew Bowman

The game really got away when Matthew Bowman couldn’t minimize the damage in the fifth inning.  The ground-ball specialist came in with the Cards already trailing 5-0, with the bases loaded and one out.  Bowman had only allowed 1 of his previous 17 inherited runners to score.  But he gave three straight hits, allowed all of the inherited runners to score, and added a run of his own.  By the time he did get that last out, the deficit had grown to 9-0.

Brett Cecil

Pitching now exclusively in low leveraged situations, Brett Cecil continues to search for answers.  After serving up another run and 3 hits, Brett’s second half ERA rises to 7.07 in 14 innings with a .391 batting average against.

Fewer Runs, But Good At Bats

Only four runs – and all of them after the game had been decided – is little to get excited about.  St Louis, however, collected 10 more hits before all was said and done.  The team batting average rises to .289 for the month, and .274 in the second half.

Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler continues to drive this offense.  He supplied 3 hits last night, scoring one of the Cardinals 4 runs and driving in two others.  He has been pretty scorching since his return from the disabled list.  Over these last 8 games, Dexter has had 33 plate appearances, during which he has provided 4 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run, 8 runs scored, 8 runs batted in, 9 walks and a stolen base.  That translates into a batting line of .458/.606/.875.  He is now hitting .297 in the season’s second half.

Luke Voit

Luke Voit has only made one start so far this month, but he may be starting to adjust to life on the bench.  He went 2-2 in the late innings last night, and his now 6 for 16 (.375) this month.

While these are all small sample sizes, Luke has been particularly effective in games after a loss.  He is 5 for 7 this month, 7 for 23 (.304) since the All-Star Break, and 13 for 39 (.333) for the season in games after a loss.

Paul DeJong

Paul DeJong added two more hits last night, driving in a run.  He now has a baby 5-game hitting streak, during which he has had multiple hits in all five games.  He is 11 for his last 20 (.550).  He has also now hit in 10 of his last 11 (.408 on 20 for 49 hitting).

After a slow start to August, Paul is now hitting .345 this month (20 for 58) and slugging .603 (he has 3 doubles and 4 home runs).  He is up to .288 since the All Star Break (36 for 125).

Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina has as rough an offensive day as could be imagined – given how short it was.  Yadi had only 2 at bats last night, but accounted for 5 outs as he grounded into both a double play and a triple play.  Yadi is now 0 for 12 over his last 4 games.

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong’s 8-game hitting streak came to an end last night.  With his 0 for 4, Kolten has hit just .188 (6 for 32) in games after a loss in the season’s second half.

Randal Grichuk

While Randal Grichuk’s numbers have been on the rise overall lately, he could still be a bit more of a force in games after a loss.  With his 0 for 3 last night, Randal is now 0 for 9 this month, 6 for 28 (.214) in the second half, and 27 for 127 (.213) for the year in games after a loss.

NoteBook

Boston’s first inning run marked the third consecutive game – and the twelfth of the last fifteen – that the Cardinals have allowed the first run of the game to be scored against them.

Home Stand Ends at 4-1 as Winning Streak Concludes

All winning streaks eventually come to an end – and always disappointingly.  Yesterday afternoon, the Braves built a 5-0 lead and withstood a late Cardinal rally for a 6-3 win (box score).  Even so, the Cardinals finished off their most recent home stand with a 4-1 record.  They are 9-3 in their home ballpark in the season’s second half, and now 35-27 there for the season.

Doubly disappointing in the loss was another scuffling performance by the pitching staff.  After being a decided strength throughout July, the pitchers started to show a little fraying through the 5-game home stand.  They allowed at least 5 runs in each game, and finished the stand with a 4.60 ERA (4 of the runs scored were unearned), and, after Atlanta banged out 12 more hits yesterday, a .309 batting average against.

Michael Wacha

One of the encouraging pieces in July, Michael Wacha has been less sharp in his 3 August starts.  Lasting just 5 innings yesterday, Wacha was brushed for 4 runs on 8 hits (including a home run).  He now has made it through just 15 innings in his August starts, with just 1 quality start.  He has now allowed 8 runs on 19 hits (including 2 home runs) in those innings – yielding a 4.80 ERA and a .317 batting average against.

John Brebbia

As his excellent rookie season turns the corner into August, John Brebbia has started to take on a little water.  Asked to hold a two-run deficit in the ninth inning yesterday, Brebbia was touched for 2 hits and a run.  He has now been scored on in 3 of his last 5 games, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits (2 of them home runs) over his last 5.2 innings.

It was the first earned run charged to John at Bush in 17.2 inning this season (0.51 ERA).  His other 7 runs allowed – including all 4 of his home runs – have been served up in 14.1 innings on the road (4.40 ERA).

Offense Still Hitting the Ball, But —

For the first time in 8 games, the Cardinal offense couldn’t manage 4 runs to support the pitching staff.  Even at that, though, they finished the day with 11 more hits.  The Cards finished this most recent home stand with a .305 team batting average (50 for 164).  They are also, now, at .290 at home in the second half.

Paul DeJong

Even in defeat, Paul DeJong continues to be a bright spot.  His 3 hits yesterday included another home run that sparked the comeback.  Paul has now hit in 9 of his last 10 games – getting multiple hits in 7 of them.  He is 18 for 45 (.400) in those games with a .733 slugging percentage (3 doubles and 4 home runs).  He has scored 7 runs and driven in 10 in those 10 games, and now has 16 runs batted in in the 19 games since he’s inherited the third slot in the order.

Paul is now hitting .333 in August (18 for 54) and slugging .611 this month.  Since the All-Star Break, DeJong is a .281 hitter (34 for 121), and a .554 slugger (6 doubles and 9 home runs).  Paul has driven in 22 runs in 29 second half games.

While Busch Stadium seems to inhibit many of the Cardinal hitters, Paul DeJong has claimed it as his own.  After a solid 9-for21 home stand that included 2 home runs, DeJong now has a .375 average at home (42 for 112) that includes 9 home runs, 22 runs batted in (in 31 games), and a .714 slugging percentage.  Paul now has to figure out a way to keep that magic going on the road, where he is hitting .234.

Randal Grichuk

Another bright spot was two more hits from Randal Grichuk.  Out of his head, and modeling a new shorter stroke, Randal has been a force during the recent winning streak.  He has hit in 5 of his last 6 games – getting 2 hits in each of those games.  Four of the ten hits have been for extra bases (1 double, 1 triple, and 2 home runs), so Randal has a .435 batting average and a .826 slugging percentage over those games.  He has hit safely in each of his last 7 starts.

He is now up to .302 for the month (13 for 43) with a .581 slugging percentage, and .321 in the season’s second half (26 for 81).  Those hits include 5 doubles, 1 triple, and 6 home runs, for a second half slugging percentage of .630.

With 8 hits in 18 at bats over the home stand, Grichuk is now hitting .356 at Busch (16 for 45) since the All-Star Break.

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong’s hot streak continues.  Two-for-four with a triple yesterday, Kolten’s hitting streak reaches 8 games, during which he is hitting .462 (12 for 26) and slugging .769 (3 doubles, 1 triple and 1 home run).  Wong has hit in 13 of his last 14 games, and is now hitting .409 this month (18 for 44).  In 30 games since the All-Star Break, Wong is hitting .319 (29 for 91).

Kolten has also thrived on his home field.  He was 7 for 14 (.500) during the last home stand, and is now hitting .324 (12 for 37) here since the break, and .349 for the season (45 for 129).

Prior to 2017, Kolten was only a .239 career hitter in St Louis (164 for 686).

Kolten has also gone 11 for 30 (.367) in his last 8 road games, and is now hitting .315 (17 for 54) away from home since the break.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter saw a dynamic 7-game hitting streak come to an end with yesterday’s 0-for-5.  In his 33 plate appearances during the streak, Matt amassed 4 singles, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run, 8 runs scored, 8 runs batted in, 6 walks, and 2 hit-by-pitches.  His batting line over the streak was an impressive .360/.515/.680.

Even with the streak, Carpenter is still hitting just .220 (9 for 41) for the month.

NoteBook

As Atlanta built their 5-0 lead, they became the fourth team in the five-game home stand to score the first run of the game.  The Cardinals have scored first only 3 times in the last 14 games – yet they are 10-4 in those games.

Yesterday was St Louis’ tenth opportunity to sweep a series this year.  The Braves became just the third of those teams to avoid the sweep.  Half of those sweep opportunities have come against teams (like Atlanta) that had lost its previous series.  St Louis has completed that sweep in 3 of their 5 opportunities.

St Louis is now 10-7-3 in their 20 home series.

Sorting Out the Cardinal Bullpen

A great deal of attention was focused on the rally cat (some truly adorable video, by  the way – especially the part where the kitty tries to claw the grounds person that’s escorting it off).  Considerable attention is being paid to the aroused Cardinal offense that has scored 42 runs in the last 4 games.  This offense has averaged 5.23 runs per game over the last 56 games.

But at this point, some attention needs to be paid to the Cardinal bullpen.  Disastrous for most of the year, this unit came to the rescue again last night with five relievers combining for four scoreless innings as the Cards put away Kansas City 8-5 for their fifth win in a row (box score).

That bullpen now has a 2.38 ERA, a .222 batting average against, and has stranded 18 of 22 inherited runners since the All-Star Break.  Even amidst this success, the roles are still sort of evolving.  Promising right-handers John Brebbia and Sam Tuivailala are still searching for consistent opportunities.  Among the four lefties, Kevin Siegrist is trying to resolve health issues, and Brett Cecil has struggled some recently.  Their situations are also in a bit of flux.

But the five who pitched last night are starting to carve out defined roles, and their success is driving the success of the relief corps, and of the team.

Matthew Bowman

Matthew Bowman came in to pitch the sixth inning.  He has most frequently been pitching in the seventh or eighth innings, but with starter Mike Leake lasting only 5 innings – and with the right-handed batters coming up in the sixth, Bowman’s opportunity came earlier than usual.  He gave a couple of hits (unusual for him), but escaped with no damage.

Matthew has now made six consecutive appearances (4.2 innings) without allowing a run.  In 13 games in the second half, he has surrendered just 2 runs in 8.2 innings, and in 19.1 innings over his last 27 games, Matthew has a 1.86 ERA, a .221 batting average against, and has stranded 13 of 14 inherited runners.

Zach Duke

Zach Duke came in to pitch the seventh – particularly to face lefty Eric Hosmer (who grounded out), switch-hitter Melky Cabrera (who also grounded out), and lefty Mike Moustakas (who flew to right).

I think this is the role that manager Mike Matheny has for Duke.  A late inning lefty specialist that Mike isn’t afraid to let face the occasional right-hander.  It gets confusing, because the Cards right now have two lefthanders that hold about that same job description.

For Duke, coming off Tommy John surgery that was supposed to cost him the entire year, a significant milestone was passed as he pitched on consecutive days for the first time this season, needing only 10 pitches to wrap up his inning.

Seung-hwan Oh

Seung-hwan Oh opened the eighth, retiring 2 of the 3 that he faced.  Since being moved into the primary setup role, Oh has allowed no earned runs in 10 games (covering 9.2 innings).

Oh has now appeared in 21 games this season as the Cardinal closer and 28 games in a setup function.  His ERA as a closer was a shaky 4.09 with a .309 batting average against.  His ERA is 2.83 in those other games, with a .239 batting average against.  As a closer, Oh threw 67% of his pitches for strikes.  In non-closing situations, Oh throws strikes 72% of the time.  Eight of his eleven throws last night were strikes.

Some small part of the improvement might be that setup pitchers generally work more regularly than closers.  So far this year, 35 of Oh’s games have come with at least one day of rest.  His ERA in those games is a not-terrible 3.50.  Only 13 times – including last night – has Oh pitched with no rest in between games.  He has a 1.38 ERA in those games.

Tyler Lyons

Very quietly and with minimal fanfare, Tyler Lyons has become as good at his job as anyone in the Cardinal bullpen, and is evolving into one of baseball’s elite specialists.  When Alex Gorden came off the bench to pinch-hit in last night’s eighth inning, Lyons came out of the pen to get him – and of course he did.  I grant you the fly ball was struck a considerable distance to center field.  But there was never any danger of it leaving.

With the out, Lyons now has a scoreless streak of 11 games (9 innings) under his belt.  During that streak he has allowed 2 hits, 1 walk, and 14 strikeouts.  These are Clayton Kershaw type numbers.

Tyler is in a similar role as Duke.  They are looking specifically to use him against a left-hander in a critical late-game situation, with no great concern if a right-hander ends up facing him.  Lyons’ breaking pitches are pretty devastating most evenings.

Trevor Rosenthal

Turning a season-long liability into a strength was as simple putting the right man on the mound in the ninth inning.  A bullpen is built from the back forward, and as soon as the closer is found, the other pieces will usually slot in.  Without dispute, the best thing that happened to the Cardinal bullpen all year was the return to prominence and dominance by Trevor Rosenthal.  Now balancing his 100-mph heat with a sharp slider and effective change, Trevor has re-emerged as the man with the ball at the end of the game.

Since the All-Star break, Trevor has pitched in 10 games (12 innings) with a 0.75 ERA and a .167 batting average against.  He has 20 strikeouts in those 12 innings.

Last night was the tenth time this season that Rosenthal came into the game as the closer.  He now holds a 1.64 ERA in those games.  His ERA in 37 games as a setup man was 3.67.

Mike Leake

For Leake – who started last night – his April groove remains elusive.  He lasted just 5 last night, allowing 5 runs (4 earned) to a good Kansas City offense.  Mike has managed quality starts only twice in his last seven games.  He is 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA over that slide.

Jose Martinez

Yadier Molina hit the famous home run last night, but Jose Martinez also gave the Cards a lead with a home run.  Martinez has simply hit his way into more playing time.  Jose has now played in 9 of the last 10 games, starting 8 of them.  He has hit safely in 6 of them – getting 2 hits in three of the last four.  Since his playing time started becoming more regular, Jose is 10 for 28 (.357).  He has hit 3 home runs, driven in 8 runs, and is slugging .714 in his last 9 games.  Jose has 8 home runs in his last 91 at bats.

Cardinal lineup plans have been enormously complicated by a couple of fourth outfielders (Martinez and Tommy Pham) who simply refuse to stop hitting.  With Dexter Fowler and Randal Grichuk both showing signs of life, the Cards have four outfielders who need to be in the lineup – and, of course, space for only three.

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk added a couple of hits last night – he now has back to back two-hit games.  Grichuk has been a bit up and down since his return from Memphis, but the ups have been more than the downs.  In the season’s second half, Randal is a .299 hitter (20 for 67) with 4 doubles and 5 home runs (.582 slugging percentage).

Cards Have Chances, But Can’t Catch Up to Reds

In the waning innings of a closely contested game, 7 of the last 14 batters the Cards sent to the plate reached base.  When Mike Matheny talks about the team continuing to grind through at bats, this is what he is talking about.

Of those 7 late inning baserunners, only 1 scored – leaving the Cardinals (once again) one run short in another head-shaking loss.  This time they fell to the last place Reds, 3-2 (box score).

When Matheny bemoans the lack of that “one” hit, this is what he is talking about.

Of the 39 Cardinals who came to the plate last night, 25 of them batted with the Cards trailing.  They went 8 for 22 with 3 walks – a .440 on base percentage.  But only 2 of the 11 runners scored.

Since the All-Star break, this has been a palpable trend.  When the Cards are even in the game, they don’t hit at all.  Last night, they were 1 for 12 (.083) when the score was tied, and over the last 21 games, they are hitting .216 (50 for 232) when the game is even.  When they fall behind by one or two runs, though, this team has responded with a .289 batting average and a .383 on base percentage.

The other half of this frustrating trend is the pitching half.  Lately, Cardinal pitching has been very good.  They carry a 3.07 ERA since the break, and over their last 23 games they have a 2.84 ERA.

They have been very, very good – once they fall behind.  Last night, while they trailed in the game, the Cardinal pitchers held Cincinnati to 4 singles in 18 at bats (.222). But, for the few innings that the game was tied (the first when it was 0-0, and the third through the fifth when it was a 1-1 game), Cincinnati was 5 for 12 (.417).

This has also been a palpable trend.  Since the All-Star break, in the 41.1 innings the pitchers have trailed by one or two runs, they have a 1.09 ERA and a .199 batting average against.  In the 59.2 innings they’ve pitched with the score tied, their ERA is 4.83.  Cardinal pitchers have only allowed 19 home runs in 21 second-half games.  Ten of them have come in the 34% of the plate appearances when the score was tied.

Marrying these two trends casts an almost earie light on this Cardinal team.  On the one hand, you have an offense that doesn’t engage until it trails – but then battles furiously to put itself back into the contest.  This offense is paired with a pitching staff that will throw remarkable innings once they are behind to keep the team in the game – but as soon as the offense catches up, they almost immediately re-surrender the lead, and the cycle begins over again.

Again, this isn’t an issue of talent.  By every gage available to us, this is an extremely talented Cardinal team.  But every statistical measure at our disposal continues to show a lack of toughness.  Cincinnati is having a terrible season.  But they were tougher than the Cardinals last night, and have been in our matchups all season.

Tommy Pham

In what has been – so far – a disappointing season, Tommy Pham has been one of the finds.  With two more hits last night, Tommy is 6 for his last 14 (.429) and has reached base in 9 of his last 17 plate appearances.  Since the break, Tommy leads the team in hits (28), runs scored (14), runs batted in (12 – tied with Paul DeJong), walks (10), stolen bases (4), batting average (.364), on base percentage (.444), slugging percentage (.532) and OPS (.977).

With two out in the third inning, Pham slapped a ball through into left for a single.  It would be the only hit the Cards would have all night while the game was tied (it was 1-1 at that point).  Tommy has been the one hitter the Cards have had who has been able to produce while the score is tied.  Since the break, Tommy is hitting .367 (11 for 30) in tie games, and for the year he hits .302 (26 for 86) in that situation.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter was back in the leadoff spot last night, but it didn’t help.  He was 0 for 4, and is now hitless in his last ten at bats.  Matt’s last home run came against Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole on June 24 – 117 at bats ago.  It has also been seven games since his last run batted in.

Carpenter is a .232 hitter this year (32 for 138) when the game is tied.

Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty added another 0-for-4 to his growing collection. To say it hasn’t been his season so far would be an understatement.  Stephen is now 1 for 12 since his return from the DL; 1 for 16 (.063) in the second half; and 4 for 37 (.108) in his last 11 games.  For the season, his average has fallen to .228.

Randal Grichuk

And Randal Grichuk has disappeared again.  Hitless in 3 at bats yesterday (with two strikeouts), Randal is now 0 for his last 10 (with 7 strikeouts).  In 8 games since his 4-hit game, Grichuk has totaled 3 hits in 25 at bats (.120).

Randal was up twice yesterday with the Cards down by a run.  He struck out both times.  For the season, Randal is 7 for 38 (.184) with just 4 runs batted in when he hits trailing by one run.

Starting Pitchers in Tie Games

Mike Leake has battled the pitching aspect of this trend all season.  In 28.2 innings when trailing, but by less than three runs, Leake holds a 2.83 ERA.  This rises to 4.09 if the game is tied.

Among the others, Adam Wainwright has defied the general trend.  When he falls behind, things can get ugly in a hurry, but in 48 innings this season with the score tied, Waino has a 2.44 ERA and a .239 batting average against.  Over his last three starts, Wainwright has a 0.64 ERA with a .140 average against in 14 innings while his games have been tied.  He has walked just 2 batters in those innings.  Adam has won a team-high 11 games.  One way you do that is by not giving up runs while the game is tied.

The resurgent Michael Wacha has followed a similar pattern.  All season, he’s been very strong while the game has been tied (2.72 ERA; .230 average against in 43 tied innings), but has been even better in the second half (11.2 innings; 2.31 ERA; .195 batting average).

Carlos Martinez has struggled more than most at keeping the game even.  He has pitched in that situation for 54.1 innings, with a 4.14 ERA and 9 home runs to show for it.  His struggles have increased since the break.  In his last four starts, Carlos has only been even in the game for 7.2 innings, during which he has served up 3 home runs and 10 earned runs – good for an 11.74 ERA and a .361/.410/.694 batting line against.  A lot of that derives from his first-inning issues that we have pointed out before.

NoteBook

Joey Votto’s first-inning RBI double that gave Cincinnati its early 1-0 lead makes five consecutive games where the Cards have not scored first.

Just Enough Pressure, Just Enough Runs as Cards Top Brewers

Since the All-Star Break, the Cardinal offense has been very hit and miss.  Over these last 19 games, the Cards have scored a modest 74 runs (3.89 per game).  Bad slumps from the three and four hitters have been a big chunk of this, but there have been other missing pieces as well.

One of these is the simple expedient of putting the leadoff batter of the inning on base.  Over the course of the whole season, the Cards have done this notably better than the league average.  Cardinals leading off an inning reach base at a .328 clip. Over all of baseball (according to baseball reference) those batters reach at a .318 clip.  The Cards rank ninth in all of baseball, and fourth in the National League in leadoff on base percentage.  Once that runner reaches, the Cards haven’t been especially proficient at bringing him home (just 49% of the time) due to lots of base running gaffes and many, many strikeouts with runners in scoring position.  But even when this hasn’t translated directly into runs, getting that first batter on adds stress to the pitcher and pressures the rest of the defense.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, though, the Cards found great difficulty in getting that leadoff batter on.  Through the first ten games of the second half, St Louis only put 25 leadoff batters on base in 90 innings (.278).

But, beginning with the Colorado series, St Louis has seen a significant uptick in performance here.  Culminating with putting 5 of their 9 leadoff hitters on base last night, the Cards have seen 28 of their last 77 leadoff hitters reach (.364).  Last night, Yadier Molina ignited a 3-run sixth inning with a leadoff home run.  This was the pivotal inning in the Cardinals 5-4 victory (box score).

Still, this improvement hasn’t translated directly to more runs.  Only 2 of the 5 leadoff hitters who reached last night scored (and one of those was Molina, courtesy of his own home run).  Over the last 9 games, only 46% of leadoff runners have scored, and the team is only averaging 3.67 runs per game in those contests.  Nonetheless, St Louis has won 6 of these last 9, and I feel confident that if this team keeps applying the pressure, eventually you will see the impact on the scoreboard.

Yadier Molina

Molina has led the way in this little 9-game resurgence.  He contributed three extra-base hits last night (2 of them home runs).  He has played in 8 of the last 9 games, hitting safely in 6 of the 8 games, including multiple hits in 5 of those games.  His 12 hits (including 3 doubles and the 2 home runs) in 31 at bats give him a .387 batting average and a .677 slugging percentage in that span.

Last year, as you recall, Yadi hit .365 from the All-Star Break to the end of the season.  Nineteen games into the second half this year, Yadi is hitting .311 (19 for 61).

Yadi doesn’t walk enough to be a great leadoff hitter.  Over the course of the season, Molina is a .296 hitter leading off an inning, but with only a .315 on base percentage.  But he has been much better in the second half, reaching base 8 times in the last 20 innings he has led off (.400).  He is 4 for 8 as a leadoff hitter over his last 8 games.

Paul DeJong

Paul DeJong is starting to spin his wheels a bit, now.  He was 0 for 5 with 4 strikeouts last night, and doesn’t seem to be seeing the ball well at all.  He is now hitless in his last 14 at bats with 7 strikeouts.    He has hit 5 home runs in the second half, but is now hitting just .211 (16 for 76) since the break.

Randal Grichuk

It seems that we always end up waiting on Randal Grichuk.  When he “returns” to the team – either from a trip to the minors or back from the disabled list, there is a short burst where we see the kind of hitter that Grichuk could be.  But after a few games, that goes away and he starts disappearing for long stretches.  After his 0-for-3, 3 strikeout evening last night, Randal is just 3 for 21 (.143) over his last 6 games.  It has been 8 games since his last home run and last run batted in, and 6 games since his last run scored.  He has struck out in 7 of his last 10 at bats.

Trevor Rosenthal

I feel that I should be knocking on wood when I type this, but it certainly looks like Trevor Rosenthal has his closer’s mojo back.  He has saved his last three games – all one run leads, and 2 of them requiring more than one inning.  Trevor has struck out 10 of the last 14 batters he’s faced, and since the All-Star Break (8 games, 10 innings), he has 17 strikeouts, a 0.90 ERA, and a .147/.194/.147 batting line against.

For the moment, anyway, there is a great feeling of confidence on the part of both his teammates and the fans when Trevor comes into the game.

NoteBook

Tommy Pham played in his 78th game this season last night.  That ties (with 55 games to go) his career high in games played in a season that he set last year.

This has been a break-through year for Tommy.  He has already set career highs in at bats, hits, doubles, home runs, total bases, runs scored, runs batted in, walks, strikeouts, hit by pitches, sacrifice flies, stolen bases, caught stealings, and grounding into double plays.  In most of these categories, he has either already exceeded his career totals coming into the season, or is about to.

Recent Scoring Change

Speaking of Tommy Pham, a recent scoring change added a hit to his season.  In the second inning of the July 18 game against in New York, Pham reached on a ground ball to third that was originally ruled an error.  That has been changed to a hit for Pham – and an RBI, as Michael Wacha scored on that play.  Met pitcher Rafael Montero gets charged with an additional hit and an additional earned run.

Two Strikes Not Quite Enough

It was all so agonizingly close for Luke Weaver.  After A.J. Pollock opened the fourth inning with a double, Weaver fell behind Jake Lamb 3-0.  Swinging on 3-0, Lamb fouled off a boarder-line fastball.  Weaver then threw two pretty good changes, but Lamb fouled those off as well.  Now 3-2, Luke was one pitch away from getting the first out of the inning.  But Luke missed with his fastball off the outside corner, and Lamb joined Pollock on base.

Now it was superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt., with two runners on, no one out, and the game still scoreless.  Luke just missed with his first-pitch change, but he got back ahead with two fastballs – one that Goldschmidt watched and the other that he fouled.  Again, Luke was in position to get either the strikeout – or even better, a double play that would take the steam out of the inning.

But his 1-2 cutter missed up and away, and his 2-2 changeup bounced.  Now it was 3-2 to one of the top sluggers in the game.  Luke tried to get him to chase the change-up, but – temptingly close as it was – Paul took it for ball four, loading the bases.

That brought former Tiger J.D. Martinez to the plate.  No longer in a mood to mess around, Weaver came after him with three straight fastballs.  For his part, Martinez was up there to swing – which he did at all three even though the last two were off the plate (he fouled the last one off to stay alive).  At 0-2, Luke was once again in a position to take the steam out of the inning.  But Martinez laid off the 0-2 change that dropped low.  Gaining one more pitch in the at bat – the twentieth, now, of the inning from Weaver – Martinez lofted Luke’s misplaced 1-2 fastball just fair around the right-field fouls pole.

And that was the game.  Before and after that, Luke went pitch for pitch with Zack Godley and his untouchable curve.  Luke faced 21 batters in his 5 innings.  He pushed 14 of them (66.7%) into two strike counts.  Except for the three at bats in the top of the fourth, the other 11 managed one single (Goldschmidt, again, grounded a 3-2 changeup into right field for a single leading off the second) and 5 strikeouts.

It was almost a brilliant performance from the Cardinal rookie who is trying to establish himself as a major-league caliber pitcher.

Cardinal Bullpen Shuts the Door

Continuing a month long pattern, the Cardinal bullpen closed the door once it was sort of too late.  After Weaver coughed up the grand slam, the Cardinal relief corps put up zeros for the last four innings.  While they have had struggles holding onto narrow leads, the Cardinal bullpen currently holds a 1.97 ERA this month (15 earned runs in 68.2 innings).  They have held opponents to a .241 batting average, allowing just 5 home runs and walking only 19 (7 of those intentionally).

John Brebbia

One reason why the bullpen does better in non-critical moments, is those are the only times Mike Matheny lets John Brebbia pitch.  John threw his twelfth consecutive game without allowing an earned run last night (totaling 13.2 innings).  He didn’t walk anyone again.  He has allowed no walks in his last six games (7.2 innings) and hasn’t given an unintentional walk in his last 17 games (20.1 innings).  His ERA is down to 1.48 on the season.

Kevin Siegrist

Kevin Siegrist allowed a couple of singles in an almost-messy eighth innings, but wriggled out of the inning taking no damage.  Kevin has now thrown 5.2 scoreless innings in 6 games since his return from the disabled list.

Tyler Lyons

Tyler Lyons tossed a 1-2-3 ninth, striking out two.  Tyler has now struck out 5 of the last 6 batters he has faced, and the last 14 batters he’s faced are 0-for-13 with a hit-by-pitch.  Over his last six outings, Lyons has allowed no runs and just 1 hit.

Tyler put all three batters he faced last night into two-strike counts.  Chris Owings grounded out on a 3-2 pitch, and Ketel Marte and Chris Iannetta both struck out on 2-2 pitches.  Lyons has faced 31 batters so far this month.  He has pushed 21 of them (67.7%) into two-strike counts.  Those batters are just 3 for 18 (.167) with 1 walk, 2 HBPs, and 11 strikeouts.

Feast or Famine Offense

The shutout continues a strange feast or famine offensive trend.  Over the last 9 games, St Louis is hitting .269 as a team, and scoring 4.67 runs per game – both very healthy totals.  But they have now scored more than three runs in only three of those games.  A 9-run eighth inning transformed what might have been a 3-2 loss into an 11-4 victory over Chicago on July 21.  Three days later, they handed Colorado an 8-2 loss.  And then on Wednesday a five-run fourth pushed them past the Rockies 10-5.  In between those eruptions there were 7-3 and 3-2 losses to the Mets; 3-2 and 5-3 losses to the Cubs; a 3-2 win over Colorado; and last night’s 4-0 loss (box score).

In the three “hot” games, the Cards averaged 9.67 runs per game and hit .355/.462/.589.  They averaged 2.17 runs per game in the other six, hitting .222/.276/.340.

Paul DeJong

When the dust had settled, Paul DeJong was the only Cardinal hitter who had some answer for Godley and the Diamondback bullpen.  He went 2 for 3 with a walk.

Paul is now riding a 7-game hitting streak, during which he is hitting .379 (11 for 29) and slugging .828 (1 double and 4 home runs).  His six-game RBI streak did come to an end last night.  DeJong had driven in 9 runs through those six games.

After starting the season at Memphis, Paul DeJong has started 21 of the 23 July games St Louis has played.  He is hitting .318 this month (27 for 85) and slugging .694 (8 doubles and 8 home runs).  Paul has 14 runs scored and 15 runs batted in this month.

Randal Grichuk

One night after Randal Grichuk’s first-ever four-hit night, his six-game hitting streak came to an end in an 0-for-4 performance.  During the streak, Randal had 7 singles and 4 home runs in 24 at bats – a .458 batting average and a .958 slugging percentage.

In the fourth inning, Randal chased a 1-0 slider that was in on his hands and fouled out.  Later, in the sixth, with runners at first and second and one out, Randal reached for Godley’s low-and-away fastball and bounced into a force play.  A lot of Randal’s game has improved noticeably since his return from the minors.  Of late, though, he is starting to swing at pitcher’s pitches early in the count.  Across all of baseball, batters who hit the first strike thrown them hit .348.  Randal, this month, is 3 for 14 (.214) when hitting the first strike thrown him.

Harrison Bader

It is very, very early in the major league portion of Harrison Bader’s career, but he’s shown an early propensity to get into two strike counts.  He’s gotten to two strikes in 10 of his first 13 times to the plate (77%), including all four last night.  After his 0-for-4, Harrison in 2 for 9 with a walk in those at bats.

NoteBook

Before last night, St Louis had led at some point in each of their 7 previous games.  That hasn’t been a very good predictor of success for the Cards this season.  They were only 4-3 in those games.