Tag Archives: Julio Jones

The Final Report on Super Bowl LI

I sometimes think most teams that play the New England Patriots are beaten before they step onto the field.  Imagine a speech that most head coaches might make to their team on Tuesday morning of Patriot week:

“Men, this week we play the Patriots.  Can we beat them?  Absolutely.  But only if we put together our most complete game of the season.  We can’t make mistakes, because this team will make you pay for each and every one of them.  So this will be our challenge this week – to play our most perfect game of the season.”

I don’t know how a team plays this game afraid of what will happen if they make a mistake.  But I have seen a lot of teams play New England with that kind of temerity.

Facing New England in the Super Bowl

Exactly what Atlanta coach Dan Quinn said to his team the week leading up to the Super Bowl I – of course – don’t know.  But I strongly doubt it bore any resemblance to the statement above.  From the game’s opening series this brash young team walked up to the four-time champion Patriots and punched them right in the mouth.  For two-and-a-half quarters the underdog Falcons treated the team from New England to a football version of “shock and awe” that featured explosive running, circus catches and eleven defenders who seemed to be everywhere on the field at once.  As the first half drew to a close, two shocking story lines were unfolding before the stunned Patriot team and dumfounded crowd of almost 71,000 at Houston’s NRG Stadium.

First, unbelievably, the Falcons were blowing out the Patriots.  The Falcons are a good team and – everyone conceded – a team that could well beat New England (if they played a perfect game).  But no impartial analyst that I know of would have predicted a blow-out victory.  But that was exactly what was happening, and there seemed nothing that New England could do about it.  For the first 36 minutes and 29 seconds of the game, New England was hopelessly outmatched on both offense and defense.

But even that might not have been as stunning as the second unexpected development.  The New England Patriots – the model franchise of the NFL – was melting down on the sport’s biggest stage.  After the game, they said there was no panic.  But those of us who watched the game know differently.

New England is Melting?

Over a 27:13 span that began at the 14:19 mark of the second period and extended through the 2:06 mark of the third period, almost every single one of the Patriot stalwarts failed to execute in opportunities to halt Atlanta’s momentum.  The skid began with the fumble by 1000-yard running back LeGarrette Blount.  Atlanta quickly turned that into a touchdown and a 7-0 lead.  Moments later a tight-end named Austin Hooper beat safety Patrick Chung on a deep post pattern for the score that made it 14-0.

Then it was Tom Brady’s turn.

With 2:36 left in the first half, and the Patriots holding the ball at the Atlanta 23, Danny Amendola beat cornerback Brian Poole to the inside and Brady threw him the ball.  But cornerback Robert Alford – who began the play trailing Julian Edelman – broke off his coverage and settled right in front of Amendola.  His interception and subsequent 82-yard touchdown return pushed the Atlanta lead to 21-0.

Before the half would end, Brady – rattled by the heavy pressure he had been under to that point in the game – would badly miss two open receivers (Edelman streaking past Alford over the deep middle of the field with 1:43 left in the half, and Chris Hogan in the right flat with 33 seconds left), and throw the ball just enough behind another receiver (Edelman again) open on a short crossing route, that the defender (Alford, again) could make a play on the ball.

They settled for a field goal, cutting the deficit to 21-3 at the half.

The Second Half

With the Falcons up by 18 and getting the ball to open the second half, it was widely conceded that the first two possessions of the third quarter would be critical to New England’s ability to stay competitive in this game.  First, they would need a defensive stop.

They got one.

After running back Devonta Freeman was dropped in the backfield for a three-yard loss on first down, he took a short pass for a seven-yard gain.  Then, on third-and-six, cornerback Eric Rowe defended a pass into the left flat to Taylor Gabriel (at that point, just Matt Ryan’s second incompletion of the game).  Atlanta punted.  When Julian Edelman brought the kick back to the Patriot 47 yard line, the stage seemed to be set.

But now it was Chris Hogan’s turn.  The 9-catch, 180-yard hero of the Championship Game, Hogan flew up the left sideline, gaining separation from cornerback Jalen Collins.  Brady’s throw was right to the outside shoulder where only Hogan could get it.  And it clunked off his hands.

A second-down screen-pass lost two yards, bringing up third and twelve.  Julian Edelman lined up to the right and ran another short crossing pattern with Alford again in trailing position.  This time Brady’s throw hit Julian perfectly in the hands.  But now it was Edelman who watched the ball slide through his fingers.

With the momentum quashed, the Patriots punted.  The Falcon’s would not go three-and-out again.  Eight plays later, Atlanta had covered 85 yards and opened a 28-3 lead.  That – for all practical purposes – seemed to clinch the title for the Falcons.

That the Patriots went on to mount the most remarkable comeback in Super Bowl history doesn’t diminish all that the Falcons achieved to that point of the game.  In the aftermath, individuals have surfaced who have wanted to criticize how the Falcons handled the rest of the game (play-calling, etc.).  While I’m sure that – if they had it to do over – they might make some different choices, what happened over the game’s last 27 minutes is more a credit to the New England Patriots than it is the fault of the Falcons.  If there were a few things Atlanta might have done differently or better, there were a myriad of things that New England needed to do almost perfectly to make the comeback happen.

That they were able to do that adds to the legendary status of some of the Patriot stars.  But even in defeat, there were several reputations either made or solidified on the Atlanta sideline.

Matt Ryan

Let’s start first with quarterback Matt Ryan.  Everyone knew the backstory.  Five years into his career as a much-hyped franchise quarterback, Ryan had led his team to a 56-22 record with a 90.9 passer rating.  But he was just 1-4 in the playoffs.  Everyone heard the whisper.  Matty Ice (as he is called) is not a big game quarterback.  If there is one misperception that should be laid to rest after this year’s playoff tournament, it should be that.

On the heels of a season where he scorched defenses to the tune of a 117.1 passer rating, Ryan spent the playoffs slicing up opponents like Japanese knives slice through tomatoes on TV.  Up to the point where his 6-yard touchdown toss to Tevin Coleman pushed the Falcon lead to 28-3, Ryan had racked up the defenses of the Seattle Seahawks, the Green Bay Packers and the Patriots to the combined totals of 65 completions in 89 attempts (73%) for 923 yards (10.37 yards per attempt and 14.2 yards per completion).  Fifty-one of his 65 completions had achieved first downs – including 9 that resulted in touchdowns with no interceptions.  This all adds up to a 139.9 passer rating.  There are a lot of descriptors that could be applied to that performance.  Choking is not one of them.

Against the Packers and the Patriots he completed 7 of 10 deep passes for 171 yards.  His passer rating on throws of more than twenty yards in the two biggest games of his season was 145.8.

Matt Ryan is pretty good (this just in).

Julio Jones

And then there is uber receiver Julio Jones.  The Super Bowl concluded Julio’s sixth season in the NFL.  He has already caught more than 100 passes in a season twice (and has 497 for his young career).  He has also been over 1000 yards four times (twice over 1500 yards) and has averaged 15.3 yards per reception for his career.  Over the last three seasons alone, Julio has caught 323 passes for 4873 yards and 20 touchdowns.  If there is a better receiver and more dangerous weapon out there than Julio, I have yet to see him.

His status in the Falcon offense set up one of the most intriguing matchups of the game.  How would Bill Belichick’s defense deal with Jones.  One of the trademarks of the New England defense is their ability to mostly neutralize their opponent’s most dangerous offensive weapon.  But is it possible to neutralize Jones?  If so, how would they go about it?

As I speculated about this a couple of weeks ago, the concept was exceedingly simple.  They double teamed him with a cornerback and a safety over the top.  I guessed that it would be Malcom Butler, but in the first half the defender on the spot was Ryan Logan.  Eric Rowe got that opportunity later.  Jones wasn’t exactly neutralized, but his four catches for 87 yards were well below the 180 yards he had accounted for against Green Bay.

On the one hand, you could call that “contained.”  On the other hand, remember that Atlanta only ran 46 offensive plays the entire evening and threw only 23 passes.  Had Ryan tossed up the 40 or so passes that he usually does, Julio’s numbers are probably more in line with the Green Bay game.

But even that is not the story.

Behind his 4 for 87 line are three highlight reel catches – a 19-yard over-the-middle catch that he pulled out of the hands of the defender (Logan Ryan), and two sideline catches that were varying degrees of impossible.  Anyone less than Julio Jones finishes the night with one catch for 23 yards.  The New England defense did what they came to do.  They forced Julio to play like the best receiver in football and kept him from hurting them at the key moments of the game.

Devonta Freeman

After surpassing 1000 rushing yards for the second straight season, Freeman dazzled under the bright lights of the Super Bowl.  At just 5-8 and 206 pounds, Freeman will never get the 25-30 carries a game that more durable backs (like Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas) might get.  But on a field littered with offensive talent, Freeman ended the day with the game’s longest run (a 37-yard sprint around left end) and the game’s longest pass reception (a 39-yard sprint with a dump pass into the left flat).  Davonta ended the day with 121 scrimmage yards and showcased his blazing speed and elite cutback ability.

Freeman also committed one of the most telling errors of the night.  It was Freeman in pass protection who was caught by surprise on the Dont’a Hightower blitz that produced the fumble that set the Patriot comeback in full motion.

Robert Alford

In spite of their early success, by the time the Super Bowl ended there wasn’t much cheering for the Atlanta defense.  But one highlight was Alford.  His was the signature defensive play of the night (the 82-yard interception return).  He also recovered a fumble and made 9 tackles on the night.

It was also Alford who was the key to the defensive strategy.  It was Alford who would be asked to cover New England’s top receiver (Julian Edelman) all over the field.  This would prove to be one of the most enjoyable and competitive contests-within-the-contest of the night.

Edelman was targeted 13 times in Super Bowl LI.  On 9 of those targets he was working against Alford in man coverage.  Alford won 5 of the 9 battles.  Edelman turned his 4 catches against Alford into 78 yards – including the pivotal 23-yard impossible catch of a pass that Alford had deflected with just slightly over two minutes left in regulation and New England still down by eight.

Julian caught his third pass of the Super Bowl on the very first play of the second quarter.  He would not catch another until that catch – the much replayed juggling catch of the deflected pass – with 2:28 left in regulation broke a streak of seven straight incompletions on throws in his direction.

Head Coach Dan Quinn and his Coordinators, Kyle Shanahan and Richard Smith

Not only did the Falcons play the game with fearless abandon, but the game plan was exceedingly well conceived and crisply executed.

Offensively, riding the hot quarterback was the easy part.  New England played a little bit of zone against Ryan, and watched him complete 7 of 8 passes for 93 yards.  Mostly they played man and saw Matty rip them to the tune of 10 of 14 for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The passer rating for Ryan when throwing against New England’s man coverage was 153.3.  Of course, the Patriots also accumulated 4 of their 5 sacks when in man coverage – 3 of them with the aid of their frequent blitzes.  Nine of Ryan’s 28 drop-backs featured Patriots blitzes.

In addition to the hot passing hand, Atlanta found unexpected success running on the perimeter.  They rarely challenged Alan Branch and the other big boys in the middle of the line.  Of their 18 running plays, only two were designed to go inside the tackles – and those two runs lost two yards.  But the perimeter attack featured several quick pitches and some better than expected blocking by the wide receivers sealing the edge.  Notable in this effort was Mohamed Sanu, who mixed it up pretty well with the big boys.

New England – whether by design or not – was singularly unable to diffuse the big play nature of the Atlanta offense.  As opposed to New England’s grinding offense, the Falcons averaged 7.5 yards per offensive play.  Six of their 46 plays broke for at least 20 yards.  Atlanta’s scoring drives took 1:53 (71 yards in 5 plays), 1:49 (62 yards in 5 plays), and 4:14 (82 yards in 8 plays).

New England triumphed, though, because its defense never allowed Atlanta anything sustained.  The Falcons ended Super Bowl LI just 1 for 8 on third down (Ryan’s second-quarter, 19-yard touchdown pass to Hooper came on a third-and-nine play.  Ryan was just 1 of 4 on third down with his other four passing attempts ending in sacks.  Of all the necessary pieces of the Patriot comeback, perhaps this uncanny success on third down was the most improbable.

About the Falcon Play-Calling

Why didn’t Atlanta run more in the second half?  Nine first-half running plays (out of 19 total plays) earned them 86 yards and a touchdown.  Of their 27 second half plays, only 9 of them were runs.  Especially as New England was mounting their comeback, you would think the Falcons would see the benefit of controlling the game with the run.  There were, I think, two probable influences.

First, when they did run the effectiveness of the attack dried up.  Of their 9 second half running plays, only 3 gained more than three yards.  Three other runners were tackled for losses.

Second, when your offense doesn’t see the field for over an hour (which happened to Atlanta as the second quarter ran into halftime), you can’t have your MVP quarterback hand off three times and punt.  If you have Matt Ryan in your backfield with thirty minutes to win the Super Bowl, you have to put the ball in his hands.  And blocking for him would be a good idea, too.

Really, if you only have 46 offensive snaps, you just don’t have enough plays to run your offense.  I’m sure there were a lot of things Atlanta wanted to get back to, but never had that chance.

The Defensive Challenge

On the defensive side, the game belonged to the linemen – especially the ageless Dwight Freeney and the surprising Grady Jarrett (who matched his season sack total of 3 in the Super Bowl).  For two and a half quarters, the unheralded Falcon defense frustrated the high-flying Patriot offense.  They snuffed out the Patriot running game and hang with the Patriots in man coverage long enough to let the pass rush disrupt Tom Brady.

Their speed and aggressiveness took away the Patriot screen game (Brady’s five screen passes gained a total of 3 yards).  They also consistently dropped defenders into the short middle area that Brady loves to exploit.  Against the Steelers, Brady was 8 for 11 for 91 yards throwing into the short middle.  He was only 11 of 16 for 98 yards and an interception in that same area in Super Bowl LI.

At the point where Atlanta led 28-3, Brady had completed just 17 of 29 passes (58.6%) for 182 yards (6.28 per attempt and 10.7 per completion) with no touchdowns (to his own team, anyway) and one big interception.  His passer rating at that point was just 62.7.

The problem with the Atlanta game-plan, though, was that it was unsustainable.  As the Falcon defense remained on the field for a soul-sapping 99 snaps (including penalties and two-point conversions), the pass rush slowed and came to an almost complete halt.  As his time in the pocket increased, Brady’s comfort level and confidence both rose.  He completed 26 of his last 33 passes (78.8%) for 284 yards (8.61 per attempt, but still just 10.9 per completion) and the two touchdowns.  He closed with a 122.7 passer rating during the comeback.

Along the way, the Patriots exploited quite a few matchups.  Jalen Collins was a particular target.  With 14 targets, Collins was the most thrown at defender in the Super Bowl.  Those 14 throws resulted in 12 completions for 116 yards and both touchdowns.  But Collins was at least as much a liability in zone coverage as he was in man.  In man coverage, Brady completed 5 of 7 against Jalen for 58 yards.  In zone, Brady was 7-for-7 against Collins for another 58 yards and both touchdowns.

Collins also gave up 3 of the 5 catches that Patriot receiver Malcom Mitchell made in the fourth quarter alone.  Mitchell’s 63 fourth-quarter receiving yards were the most by any of the receivers from either in team in any quarter of the Super Bowl.

Other Issues

There were two other man-to-man matchups that the Patriots returned to with great frequency.  One was Danny Amendola working against Brian Poole.  Seven times Brady threw to Amendola with Poole working against him.  Danny caught five of those passes for 62 yards and 4 first downs.

The Falcons biggest matchup problem, though, wasn’t with any of the wide receivers.  In the middle of the comeback was running back James White.  Mostly, James drew the attention of middle linebacker Deion Jones.  Of his game-high 16 targets in Super Bowl LI, 8 came while covered by Jones in man coverage.  He caught 6 of those for 46 yards and caught 2 more against Jones in zone coverage for another 20 yards.

After watching Pittsburgh’s zone defenses struggle against the Patriot offense, Atlanta decided to rely on man coverages.  Of Brady’s 67 drop-backs, he saw some form of man coverage 44 times.  Brady completed 28 of 42 throws (with two sacks) for 355 yards.  All of his big passes came against man coverages.  When Atlanta dropped into zones, Tom completed 15 of 20 (75%) but for only 111 yards (5.55 per attempt and 7.4 per completion).

Would Atlanta have won the Super Bowl if they had run the ball more and played more zone defenses?  It’s impossible to say for sure, but my gut feeling is that I don’t think they would.  I don’t believe that hanging on and hoping the clock runs out wins this kind of game against this team.  Atlanta could have iced the game at any number of points in the second half.  They just needed to make one more play.

How to Make a 25-Point Comeback

One last remarkable aspect of this comeback was the Patriot approach.  For 23 of their 93 plays, New England trailed by more than 20 points.  Trailing by 20 points in the Super Bowl is a big deal.  But the Patriots showed admirable restraint, calling 6 runs among those 23 plays and only throwing two deep passes (both incomplete).  During this stretch, Brady nursed his team back into contention.  He completed 11 of 15 passes (73.3%) for just 97 yards (only 8.82 yards per completion).  But Atlanta did not sack him during any of those attempts. Those passes included a short touchdown toss to White.  His passer rating during the plays when he trailed by 20 points was 112.4.

Throughout the long, impossible road back from a 25-point deficit, the Patriots resisted the urge to get ahead of themselves.  Instead of the eye-catching, 30-yard up-field passing that Atlanta featured, New England played within themselves and ground down the young Falcon defense.

Emotion is a two-edged sword in the NFL.  Atlanta left the tunnel wound up almost to the snapping point.  They fell on the Patriots with an energy and passion that took New England by complete surprise.  But emotion is like a sugar rush.  There is almost always a crash at the end of it.

Maybe the single most impressive aspect of the Patriot comeback was the discipline of it.  It wasn’t at all unemotional.  But it was a clinical – almost surgical – exposure of the Falcon defense.  In a way, the comeback was an act of faith.  It was the response of a team that believed completely in its process.

It was the response of a team that didn’t believe it could be beaten.

The NFL GameBook for Super Bowl LI is here, and the Football reference Summary is here.

What’s Next?

With the Super Bowl now in the rear-view mirror and baseball still a few months away (yes I know pitchers and catchers are reporting already), it’s time for me to take a short vacation.  After 189 posts and many hundreds of thousands of words since last April, I intend to take a few weeks of to re-charge for the long season ahead.  Look for my posting again in early March as we start preparing for the 2017 campaign.

See you then.

The Atlanta Falcons Soar Into Super Bowl LI

In the moments before their game against the Atlanta Falcons, the Green Bay Packers won the coin toss and elected to defer.  The afternoon was all downhill for them from there.

The Falcons took the opening kickoff and moved 80 yards in 13 plays in a drive that consumed the first 6:36 of the game to take a 7-0 lead.

The next time they got their hands on the ball (starting on their own 31), they moved the ball 59 yards in 12 plays consuming five more minutes (and 21 seconds).  By the time Matt Bryant added the field goal, there were just 14 seconds left in the first quarter, and the Packers already trailed 10-0.

The second quarter would prove similar. Another 80-yard drive on their first possession of that quarter pushed the Falcon lead to 17-0.  They went into the locker room at half-time leading 24-0 after a 5-yard touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to Julio Jones with just three seconds left capped a quick 68 yard drive.

The Packers made a little second half noise, but they were never truly in this one, falling by a final score of 44-21.  The Atlanta Falcons (who only attempted 6 passes in the second half) will now advance to their second ever Super Bowl to face New England on Sunday.

So, How Good is the Falcon’s Offense?

Pretty darn good.

They finished the regular season as one of the top scoring offenses in NFL history, racking up 540 points (an average of 33.8 per game).  They then put up 36 points against Seattle in their first playoff game, before hanging 44 on the Packers.  By yardage they finished second in the league this year (third in passing yards and fifth in rushing yards).  Quarterback Ryan finished completing 69.9% of his passes for almost 5,000 yards.  He averaged 9.26 yards for every pass attempted, and 13.3 for every pass he completed.  His regular season touchdown-to-interception ratio was 38-7.

Prominent on the receiving end is record-setting wide receiver Julio Jones, who stormed through the regular season hauling in 83 passes for 1409 yards.  In the signature moment of the Championship Game, he beat cornerback Ladarious Gunter to the inside for a 73-yard catch-and-run touchdown that pushed the score to 31-0.  Julio would finish the afternoon with 9 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns.

But the game – like the season – belonged to Ryan.  At 27 of 38 for 392 yards and 4 touchdowns, Matt picked the Packer defense clean.  A predominantly man coverage team, the Packers lined up in man coverage against Jones and the Falcon receivers for 26 of the 38 passes (68.4%).  They didn’t come close to slowing them down.  Ryan sliced their man coverages for 16 completions in those 26 attempts (61.5%).  Fifteen of those 16 completions earned first downs as Ryan totaled 269 yards with those passes (10.35 per attempt and 16.8 per completion).  Three of his four TD passes came with the Packers in man coverages.

Gunter was supposed to have help with Jones, but it never materialized.  Slightly more than one third of the time the Packers were in man, Ryan looked for Jones, throwing 9 of the 26 passes in his direction.  Julio finished catching seven of them for 140 yards and both of his touchdowns.  The Packer man coverage schemes clearly didn’t work.

But neither did their zones.  Ryan and the Falcon passing game were equally proficient when Green Bay dropped into zone coverage.  Matty completed 11 of 12 (91.7%) of his passes against the zone defenses for 123 yards and his initial touchdown pass.

In their own evaluation of the execution of their strategy, the Packers will probably concede that they knew they were asking, perhaps, too much of a somewhat banged up secondary.  But they were counting on getting enough pressure on Ryan to give their secondary a chance to compete.  Indeed, when Ryan did face significant pressure (and I grant this is a small sample size), he was a fairly mortal 4 for 7 for 57 yards and no touchdowns.  But the Packer pressure was sporadic and all too often the Green Bay secondary was hung out to dry.  Top pass rusher Clay Matthews was mostly a non-factor.  He finished with one tackle, no sacks and three pressures.  He spent 90% of his evening lining up opposite of Falcon left tackle Jake Matthews.  While Jake effectively eliminated Clay, it should also be pointed out that Clay has been battling a fairly serious shoulder injury all year.  Whether it was the Falcon offensive lineman or the limits of his health – or some combination of the two – the absence of Clay’s outside pressure was a critical blow to the Green Bay defensive scheme.

A couple of numbers that more fully illustrate the dominance of the Falcon passing game:

Ryan threw 15 passes from his own side of the 50-yard line.  He completed 14 of those passes (93.3%) for 231 yards.  His passer rating from his side of the field was 141.0.  For the game, seven of their nine possessions ended in Green Bay territory, and they ran 44 of their 68 plays (64.7%) on the Green Bay side of the field.

Additionally, the more balanced Atlanta offense adds to the effectiveness of Ryan’s play-action passing game – something they should, perhaps, do more of.  Ryan only went play-action seven times, but completed six of those passes for 179 yards and the 73-yard touchdown to Jones.  Jones, in fact, was the target of 4 of those 7 play-action passes, and accounted for 4 completions and 133 yards. Julio is very dangerous all the time – but especially when the Falcons run play-action.

And then, there was third down.  The Falcons finished the game a devastating 10 for 13 in third down situations, including 6 of 9 when the third down was six yards or more.  Ryan was 10 for 11 (90.9%) passing on third down for 101 yards.  Nine of his ten completions went for first downs.  Three of his touchdown passes came on third-down throws.  It all adds up to a 144.5 rating on third down.

But with all the positives of the un-stoppable passing game, there are a few cautionary observations to make.  First, it can’t be forgotten that the Packers finished the season ranked thirty-first out of thirty-two teams in pass defense.  That was by yardage allowed.  But the passer rating against them was a troubling 95.9 (ranking them twenty-sixth in the league).  The New England team that they are set to face on Sunday allowed opposing passers an 84.4 rating (they finished eighth).  In addition, the Patriots allowed the fewest points of any team in the league.  Ryan-to-Jones is a devastating combination, and it’s unlikely that New England will be able to shut them down completely.  But it’s not unreasonable to think that they will be able to slow them more than Green Bay could.

If all Atlanta has on Sunday evening in Houston is Ryan-to-Jones, I don’t think it will be enough.  Which brings me to the Falcon running game.

After a season of accolades, the Atlanta Falcon running game continued a pattern of fading against the league’s better run defenses.  Including their two playoff games, Atlanta has played 5 games against defenses ranked eighth or better at stopping the run.  In those games, the Falcons have averaged 86.4 yards.  The only time in any of those games that they cracked 100 yards was the Championship Game against Green Bay.  They managed 101 yards on 30 carries in that game.  Leading by 24 at the half, the Falcons went into the second half with the goal of establishing their running game. They focused to the extent that 16 of their 22 second half plays were runs.  They managed just 47 yards on those carries (2.9 per).  These struggles continued even after Green Bay lost starting inside linebacker Jake Ryan to injury about midway through the third quarter.  Additionally, 23 of the yards they did get came on scrambles from Ryan and 7 more were the result of a direct snap to wide receiver Mohamed Sanu out of the Wildcat formation.  As far as running backs taking handoffs, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (who combined for 1599 yards this season), combined for only 71 yards on 25 carries during the game.

Much of the yardage that they did get came as a result of Green Bay defenders over-running the play and leaving the talented Falcon running backs open cutback lanes – something the disciplined Patriot linebackers are unlikely to do.

New England finished the season allowing just 88.6 rushing yards per game – the third-best total in the NFL this year.  If Atlanta is unable to run the ball against the Patriots, I expect that Ryan and the passing game will have a much more difficult evening than they did last Sunday.

This, I feel, is all the more likely after getting a close look at the Falcon offensive line.  In the aftermath of a 44-21 blowout, you would expect to see domination on the part of the winning team’s offensive line.  To state it directly, I was unimpressed.  Matthews (as mentioned) did a nice job pass blocking against Matthews. I’m not completely sure if that was due to great blocking or injury on the part of Green Bay’s Matthews.  Left guard Andy Levitre had some very good moments, throwing some excellent blocks, but also had very bad moments where he was beaten quickly both in pass blocking and run blocking.  Center Alex Mack and right guard Chris Chester mostly failed to defensive linemen Mike Daniels and Letroy Guion (Daniels, in particular, had a very strong game against all of Atlanta’s interior linemen), allowing the Packer linebackers to mostly flow freely to the point of attack.  And right tackle Ryan Schraeder – although a four-year veteran and two-year starter seemed to struggle most, seeming slow to react.

I don’t expect this team to run the ball against the Patriots.  Matt Ryan and his passing game will gain yards and put up points, but not as many as they have been wont to score throughout the year.  Which leads to what I consider to be the most important question regarding this year’s Super Bowl.

How Good is the Falcon Defense?

As the Packers began the season, their backfield featured Eddie Lacy as the main running threat.  He lasted five weeks before succumbing to a lingering ankle injury.  Later on James Starks resurfaced for a few games before he also landed on the injured reserve list.  A running back named Don Jackson played in three games, starting one, before his season ended with an undisclosed injury after Week Nine.

By the time the Green Bay offense took the field for the first time in the Championship Game, their running game was reduced to a converted wide receiver (Ty Montgomery), a Seattle castoff (Christine Michael) and fullback Aaron Ripkowski.

The Packers opened the playoffs running just 25 times for 75 yards against the Giants.  They followed that up running just 17 times against Dallas for 87 yards.  Last Sunday, they came into Atlanta with no intention of running at all. After Montgomery gained four yards on Green Bay’s very first play, the Pack threw on their next eight plays.

Midway through the second quarter, when Ripkowski burst over left guard for a 12-yard run, it was only the third Packer running play in their first 13 plays.  And, after Ripkowski fumbled the ball away at the end of that run, it would be the last Packer running play until they trailed 31-0 and there was 13:46 left in the third quarter. (Montgomery would take the Packers’ fourth running play of the day on their twenty-sixth offensive snap.)  Fifty-five offensive plays into their afternoon, Green Bay had all of ten running plays, and two of them were scrambles by their quarterback.

With the game well out of reach late in the fourth quarter, the Packers ended their season running on 7 of the last 9 plays.  They ended the game with 99 yards on 17 rushes.  Subtract the three scrambles from QB Aaron Rodgers and two designed QB runs, and the actual yardage gained by running backs taking handoffs was 39 yards on 12 carries – most of them late.

Sometimes defenses have to work to make teams one dimensional.  The Packers were one dimensional coming off the bus.  Even though the Falcon defense has been vulnerable to the run all year (allowing 104.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry) and even though Atlanta had at least five defensive backs on the field for every defensive snap of the game, Green Bay never tried to exploit this opportunity.  So dormant was the Packer running attack, that in 50 called passing plays, Rodgers threw just one play-action pass.

Instead, the Packers attempted to answer the Falcons’ high-efficiency offense with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to Jordy Nelson (playing with cracked ribs), Davante Adams (trying to stay on the field after spraining his ankle last week), Jared Cook (who dropped two more passes) and Randall Cobb.  Factor in the loss of three more offensive starters to injury as the game progressed (the Packers lost Montgomery and two offensive linemen: Lane Taylor and T.J. Lang), plus the fact that Atlanta was up 17-0 almost before anyone could blink, and things seemed to tilt decidedly to the advantage of the Atlanta defense.  (In fact, the Packers put the ball into play trailing by twenty or more points on 43 of their 64 offensive snaps).

Yet, by game’s end, this limping, one-dimensional Packer offense had scuffled for 21 points and 367 yards, gaining 5.7 yards per offensive play.  In fact, take back Mason Crosby’s miss of a 41-yard field goal on Atlanta’s first possession and Ripkowski’s fumble at the Falcon 11-yard line on their second possession, and the Packers could easily have put up 31 or so points against this Atlanta defense that finished twenty-fifth in the league in yards allowed and twenty-seventh in points allowed.

The television crew that broadcast this game went to great lengths to praise the Atlanta defense.  I’m not sure I’m convinced.

The Falcons also played decidedly more man coverages than they did zone, and showed weaknesses in both.  Rodgers was 12 for 19 against the Falcon zones (63.2%) for 147 yards (an average of 12.25 yards per completion).  The Falcon linebackers – and specifically middle linebacker Deion Jones – frequently got lost in zone coverages.  Randall Cobb – whose quickness is reminiscent of Patriot receivers like Julian Edelman – caught four of the five passes thrown to him in zone coverage for 78 yards and four first downs.

Even more telling, in the man coverages that the Falcons prefer, they had noted difficulty finding someone who could cover Jared Cook, the Packer tight end.  Cook finished with 7 catches for 78 yards.  He also had the two drops that would have accounted for at least 13 more yards.  Particularly ineffective against the Packer TE was safety Keanu Neal who was completely manhandled in his attempts to cover him.  If covering Cook is a challenge, how much more difficult will an accomplished tight end like the Patriots Martellus Bennett be.

When playing Green Bay, most teams focus on keeping Rodgers in the pocket.  Atlanta managed that for the most part by blitzing him.  On almost 47% of the Packer pass plays (22 of 47), they sent five pass rushers his way.  None of these were exotic, overload blitzes designed to bring a free rusher.  Instead, the purpose of these blitzes was as much to keep Rodgers in the pocket as it was to hurry his process.  And in this, it was largely successful.  The blitz got to Aaron once, and Rodgers scrambled out of pressure three other times.  But he only threw from outside of the pocket 7 times, and completed only 3 of those passes (albeit for 82 yards).  His lone interception was thrown after he rolled out of the pocket and heaved a long pass downfield on third-and-21.

While there were some holes, there were a lot of things the Falcon defense did quite well.

In the wake of the Falcon’s victory, many of the commentators suggested that New England’s defense would be facing a unique challenge in the Atlanta offense.  They neglected to mention that Atlanta’s defense would be similarly challenged.  In New England, they will be facing a more balanced offense with another elite quarterback and receivers who aren’t battling injuries.

The Atlanta Falcons are an impressive team and they have made great strides over the last few years.  They have become an elite offensive team, but their defense still lags behind.  Far enough behind to be a liability against the Patriots.

The NFL Gamebook for this game can be found here.  The Pro Football Reference summary is here.

What Comes Next?

Ideally, I would like to get one more post written before Sunday, taking a closer look at the AFC Championship Game.  I am a little behind and facing a busy week, so I make no promises.

And then, some time after the Super Bowl – hopefully not too long – we will do a little analysis on the last game of the season.