Tag Archives: Ozuna

Heavy Pitches Humble Cardinal Hitters

On the fourth pitch of the bottom of the first inning, Jon Gray’s slider stayed a little up and just inside enough for Matt Carpenter to get around on it.  Matty got just enough lift on the pitch to pull it over the wall in right.  One batter into the game, and the Cardinals had a quick 1-0 lead.

At the time, you wouldn’t have guessed that this would be a singular event.  Gray’s ERA coming into the event (5.16) wasn’t dazzling (take into account, of course, that he pitches his home games in Colorado), and the Cardinals – of late – have shown a little pulse at the plate (including the 5-4 comeback win from the night before).

Nonetheless, when Gray finally ran out of gas after 92 pitches with one out in the eighth, he walked off the mound with a 6-1 lead – on his way to a 6-3 victory (box score).

Not only was the Carpenter home run an anomaly in that it accounted for the only Cardinal run to that point, it also turned out to be rare because he was actually able to pull the ball in the air – something the Cards managed only 3 times all night.  Yadier Molina stroked a couple of fly ball outs to left during the game.

Velocity and location are not the only pitching factors.  Some pitchers throw what batters refer to as a “heavy” ball.  Even when left in locations and at velocities that batters can normally handle, these pitches don’t really jump off the bat.  It creates the illusion that this particular ball is made out of granite or some other weighty material.

This is who Jon Gray was for most of the evening last night.  He didn’t shy away from the strike zone with a fastball that held at about 94-mph and a slider about 10-mph slower.  But both pitches ran heavy, resulting in many groundballs – especially in key situations.

About the only time that Gray was ever in trouble during the first seven innings was the fifth, when an infield hit and a walk put two on with just one out.  But that heavy slider got the double play grounder (after a review) off the bat of Greg Garcia.

When he wasn’t getting ground balls, he was getting fly balls hit to the opposite field.  Between Gray and the two relievers – ex-Cardinal Seunghwan Oh and Wade Davis – the power-hitting Cardinals were left with 7 opposite field fly balls – several of them quite well hit – that they couldn’t get around on enough to get them over the fence.

As the Rockies walked off the field congratulating each other after the last of these opposite field fly outs (a soft fly to right by Jedd Gyorko) with a win that was more dominating than the final score suggested, the scoreboard showed 3 runs for St Louis on only 4 hits.  Other than the home run, the Cards had two infield hits, and one ground ball that snuck its way through the infield.

Gray – and the pitchers that followed – didn’t complicate things.  They threw strikes and kept their heavy pitches low and away.  They made it look easy.

Tyler O’Neill

The first opportunity to occupy the spot of the departed Tommy Pham fell to rookie Tyler O’Neill.  He finished his first game back in the majors with two infield hits.

In his 3 plate appearances, Tyler ended up in two strike counts twice, striking out once.  Power hitters in general – and rookie power hitters in particular – find themselves in this situation frequently.  O’Neill’s rookie season is now just 50 plate appearances deep, but he has ended up in two-strike situations in 64% of them – and of the 32 times that he has seen strike two, he has subsequently seen strike three 21 times (65.6%).

Yadier Molina

Molina finished a very strong July (.315/.357/.472) with a disappointing 0-for-4.  Twice during the game, Yadi put pretty good swings on the first strike he saw, but neither resulted in base hits.  Over all of baseball, batters are hitting .338/.402/.585 when they hit the first strike.  Yadi’s July ran quite contrary to that.  With his 0-for-2 last night, Molina finished July 4-for-20 (.200) when hitting the first strike.

In his first at bat of the game in the first, he fell quickly behind in the count 1-2.  But Yadi fouled off one pitch and took a ball before hitting the sixth pitch in play.  Molina continues to be difficult to strike out.  Strike two only leads to strike three 27.9% of the time with Molina at the plate.

Paul DeJong

Still feeling his way back from his injury, Paul DeJong took another 0-for-4 last night.  Paul is now hitless in his last 14 at bats, and finished July just 18 for 83 (.217) with only 6 walks (.264 on base).  Since being moved by new manager Mike Shildt into the third spot in the order, DeJong is hitting .182 (10 for 55) with only 4 walks (.230 on base).

Paul hit a couple of those “heavy” fly balls to right.  His first time up, he jumped a first pitch fastball, but the drive ran out of steam and came down well short of the fence.  Since his return from the DL, Paul is another who has had poor luck when hitting the first strike.  He is now just 2 for 18 (.111) on those pitches.

Marcell Ozuna

Among the casualties of last night’s loss was Marcell Ozuna’s six-game hitting streak.  He hit .346 (9-for-26) during the streak, with a double and 3 home runs.  He drove in 7 runs during that streak, while slugging .731.  The recent revival from Ozuna’s bat has been one of the most encouraging recent developments.

Jedd Gyorko

In general, the Cards struck out slightly less often in July than in the months leading up it – one of the reasons why the offense up ticked.  Through the season’s first three months, the Cards averaged 8.77 strikeouts per game, striking out 43.4% of the time that they found themselves in two-strike counts.  Over the last month, those numbers declined to just 7.46 strikeouts per game, and strikeouts in just 38.0% of their two-strike plate appearances.

Jedd Gyorko, in particular, is getting more and more difficult to fan.  Jedd – who didn’t strike out at all last night – struck out only 8 times in July, and on just 21.1% of his two-strike plate appearances.

Greg Garcia

Struggling lately off the bench, Garcia got a start last night to try to help his timing.  For one night, at least, the results were not quite there – Greg was 0-for-2 with that important double play.  Garcia finished July in a 2-for-20 slump.

Jack Flaherty

Last night’s starter, Jack Flaherty, didn’t make it out of the sixth inning again.  He finished July tossing just 28.2 innings over 6 starts, with a middling 1-3 record and a 4.71 ERA.  Since tossing seven innings of one-hit ball against Milwaukee on June 22, Jack has a 1-4 record and a 5.23 ERA over 7 starts.  His loss was his second in a row and fifth in his last seven decisions – although in fairness to Jack, he was twice betrayed by his bullpen, and has had more than two runs scored for him only once in his last 9 starts.

Flaherty is still not giving up a lot of his – only 5 in his 5.1 innings last night (albeit they included a home run and a double).  With that performance, the Cardinal starters finished the month of July with an opponent’s batting average of just .225.

Jack also struck out 7 batters in those innings, and is now averaging 11.06 strikeouts per nine innings.  Flaherty throws a lot of strikes, and almost always gets hitters in two-strike counts.  Last night, 14 of the 23 batters he faced ended up in two-strike counts.  For the month of July, he put 65.6% of the batters to face him (80 of 122) in two-strike counts.

Following Jack’s lead, the Cardinal pitching staff in general constantly kept Colorado in two-strike counts.  Of the 39 batters the Rockies sent to the plate, 26 (66.7%) ended their appearance with two strikes on them.  Only 4 of them got hits, although those hits included the two-run home run by Charlie Blackmon in the fifth (on a 1-2 pitch) and the very damaging double struck by Gerardo Parra (also on a 1-2 pitch) in the sixth.  That blow – from the first man faced by newly acquired Chasen Shreve – drove in a run to make it a 4-1 lead.

Speaking of the Bullpen

After an impressive series against the Cubs and a good first game against Colorado, the Cardinal bullpen ended July pretty much as they pitched through most of the month.  With Flaherty out of the game, the Rockies padded their advantage with 2 more runs on 4 more hits – including a home run – over the last 3.2 innings.  St Louis thus finished the month of July with a 5.98 ERA and a .306 batting average against from the bullpen.

John Brebbia

At one time, perhaps, the best pitcher in the Cardinal bullpen, John Brebbia finished a rough July by serving up a two-run homer in two-thirds of an inning.  He pitched 7 innings in July, allowing 6 runs on 10 hits – 2 of them home runs.  Opposing batters hit .323 against him in those innings, with a .581 slugging percentage.

With two-outs in the seventh, Brebbia started Parra off with an inviting fastball – perhaps just a little lower than Gerardo might ideally like it.  Parra jumped it, but only flew out to left.  John has had some ups and downs, but this is one thing he has managed to do pretty well – throw that first strike just slightly better than the batter expects.  For the season, batters are hitting just .160 (4 for 25) when hitting John’s first strike.  Not only are all four of the hits singles, but two of them are infield hits.

Mike Mayers

Throwing a quiet eighth inning, Mike Mayers faced three batters and got two strikes on all of them, but was unable to get a strikeout.  Mike throws the ball hard enough that one might expect more strikeouts.  Of the 19 July batters that he got two strikes on, only 4 ended up striking out (21.1%).  For the season, that percentage is a modest 35.8.

One is Not Enough

One run.

For five innings of last night’s tight, intense contest in Cincinnati – as the zeros filled up the scoreboard – the Cardinal faithful kept hoping for one run.

In the sixth inning, the prayer was quickly answered.  A Matt Carpenter double, followed by a single from Yadier Molina produced the game’s only run to that point.  But with Molina on second (he advanced on the throw home) and no one out, the opportunity – nay, the necessity – to score at least one more run lay before the Cards with their three-four-five batters up.

Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna flew out, and Jose Martinez struck out.  The Cards were left with one run – one lonely run.

Behind all of this, of course, was a remarkable debut by rookie right-hander Daniel Poncedeleon.  Almost killed by a line drive a year ago, Poncedeleon was spinning hitless inning after hitless inning – four, five, six – the anticipation mounted each time Daniel walked off the mound having yet to surrender a hit.

At yet, if you have watched this team all year, you knew that this was all going to end badly.  With the innings, the pitch count also mounted for the youngster.  Daniel added a hitless seventh – but at the cost of 26 more pitches.  That inning raised his game total to 116.  Enough.  Daniel would not go out for the eighth.  Manager Mike Shildt would now have to turn to the bullpen – that same ragged collection that had surrendered runs – multiple runs – in nine consecutive games.

And so we looked at the one run on the scoreboard, and we knew.

Marshalling their most reliable arms (such as they are) the relief corps tried desperately to hang onto that slim lead.  Jordan Hicks gave a hit, but no runs in the eighth.  Now it was Bud Norris.

The tension mounted as Scooter Gennett was called out on strikes.  Two outs to go.  Then Joey Votto crushed a liner to left that Ozuna made a remarkable catch on.

Now the Cards were one out away.  That would be as close as they would get.

Norris’ second pitch to Cincinnati slugger Eugenio Suarez was crushed deep over the left field wall, and with that the score was tied.  Poncedeleon’s win was deleted.  And the bullpen surrendered a run in its tenth consecutive game.

Not content there, the Reds then continued the rally against Norris with three more hits and a walk – the last hit by Dilson Herrera driving in the winning run in Cincinnati’s 2-1 victory (box score).

For Herrera, it was just his second hit of the year.  His other hit this year was a three-run home run off of Sam Tuivailala in the seventh inning of an eventual 9-1 rout of the Cardinals back on July 13.

The Long Slow Decline

Sixty-nine games ago, a two-run, fourteenth-inning home run off the bat of Dexter Fowler gave St Louis a 4-3 conquest of the hated Cubs.  At that point, St Louis was 20-12, and in first place by 1.5 games.  That home run gave the Cards a 15-5 record over their previous 20 games.

Since then, the re-tooled Cardinals embarked on a 68-game regression to absolute mediocrity.  After losing, now, 38 of those last 68 games, the Cardinals hit the 100-game mark of the season at 50-50.  They are now 8-11 in July.

When Fowler hit his home run, it pushed the Cardinal record in one run games to 7-5.  Last night’s defeat dropped them to 13-14 in such games – including losses in 3 of the 4 played in the month of July.

Clearly, the bullpen continues to be a big chunk of the issue.  Nineteen games into July, Cardinal starters are clicking along with a 3.39 ERA and a .220 batting average against.  Meanwhile’ the bullpen’s ERA has risen to 7.50 this month, with a .332 batting average against.  Over the last 68 games, the starters ERA of 3.58 has been completely undone by a 5.40 ERA over 226.2 innings from the bullpen.

In the four one run games this month, Cardinal starters have contributed 3 quality starts, a 2.49 ERA and a .165 batting average against.  They have allowed 7 runs in the 25.1 innings that they have pitched in these games.  In 9.1 innings in this month’s one run games, the bullpen has allowed 6 runs.

One Run Struggles

But if the angst of the loss falls chiefly on the pen, the offense has to share equally in the blame.  Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo is not regarded as an untouchable star.  He entered the game with a 5-8 record and a 5.49 ERA – hardly All-Star numbers.  But last night he was more than enough for the off-and-on Cardinal offense.

In fact, these one-run games reveal the Cardinal offense at its worst.  While one-run games strongly tend to be lower scoring, your St Louis Cardinals have pushed that trend to an exaggerated low.  While they have scored in double figures 7 times already this year – including routs of quality pitchers like Jake Arrieta, Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Jon Lester, they have vanished almost completely in the tightest games the Cards have played this year.

In the four one-run games played this month, the Cards have totaled just 11 runs while batting just .190 and slugging .286.  They have hit .197 in their one-run games since the Fowler home run.

It’s a combination that leads to heart-breakers like last night.

Matt Carpenter

While the team looks like it may be circling the drain, Matt Carpenter continues to be a beacon of excellence.  While his home run streak has been stopped, Carpenter’s hitting streak has reached 8 games with his two hits last night.  He is now 14 for his last 28 (.500).  Twelve of the hits are for extra bases (8 home runs and 4 doubles).  He is slugging 1.500 during the streak, driving in 12 runs and scoring 11 – he has scored at least one run in each of the eight games.

This torrid stretch brings Matt’s batting line to an outstanding .364/.481/.939 through 62 July plate appearances.  He has 10 home runs, 20 runs scored, and 17 runs batted in in 19 games this month.  He has hit 22 home runs and 25 doubles in his last 242 at bats – batting .326 and slugging .702 over his last 65 games.

Paul DeJong

One of the missing bats that the Cards are hoping will show up soon, is that of shortstop Paul DeJong.  Paul has never really regained the pop in his bat from before his broken wrist, and has struggled particularly since Shildt took over and installed him in the third slot in the order.  In 7 games as the number-three hitter, DeJong is 4 for 27 with 2 doubles.  His batting line – after his 0-for-4 last night – is just .148/.167/.222.

Since his return, DeJong is hitting .218/.250/.273 in 60 plate appearances.  He hasn’t walked in 4 games, and his last home run came in the second inning of the May 11 game against San Diego, 76 at bats ago.

Marcell Ozuna

The surprising disappearance of Marcell Ozuna also continues.  He was hitless in three at bats last night.  Marcell’s July now consists of 81 plate appearances, during which he has managed 12 singles, 1 double (his only extra-base hit this month), 7 runs scored, 7 runs batted in, 5 walks (1 intentional), 15 strikeouts, 1 sacrifice fly, and 2 double plays.  After hitting 37 home runs last year, Ozuna holds a .173/.222/.187 batting line this month.  His last home run came in the first inning on June 16 – 128 at bats ago.

Dexter Fowler

Yes, Dexter Fowler went hitless again last night (0-for-3).  He is now hitting .205 (9-for-44) this month.  Dexter has walked only 1 time during the month of July, while striking out 13 times.  Since his big home run against the Cubs, he is 28 for 148 (.189), with only 9 extra-base hits (7 doubles and 2 home runs).

Dexter has the second lowest batting average of all Cardinal regulars in one-run games this year.  He is hitting .167 (14 for 84) in those games.

Greg Garcia

With his 0-for-2 last night, Greg Garcia is just 6 for 34 (.176) in one-run games this year,

Jordan Hicks

After a spectacular start, Jordan Hicks’ rookie season has hit some recent bumps.  Overall, though, Jordan has been one of our best performers under the pressure of one-run games.  With his scoreless inning last night, Hicks has a 1.65 ERA and a .148 batting average against in one-run games this season.

Bud Norris

At the end of the day, the game slipped away with Norris on the mound.  Bud has been mostly good this season.  One-run games, however, have proved a struggle for him – not a good sign for your closer.  Bud has pitched in 17 of the 27 one-run games St Louis has played.  He has only brought home 6 of 9 save opportunities with a 4.96 ERA.  He has allowed 4 home runs in just 16.1 innings in those games.

Strikes a Rarity

One never knows what one will get the day after a game like Friday’s.  Highlighted by Matt Carpenter’s career day, the Cardinals waltzed away with an 18-5 win (box score).  When the next day features a double-header, it’s even harder to predict.

As it turned out a long day of baseball turned even longer as both pitching staffs showed a strange aversion to throwing strikes. 

The umpires played a part.  Both Lance Barksdale and Will Little might have been more generous with the outside corners, but any part they might have played in the outcome was minor indeed.  There weren’t a whole lot of narrow misses.

The 18 innings saw a total of 589 pitches.  Of the 351 pitches that were taken by both teams, 252 (71.8%) were called balls.  Of the 161 batters that came to the plate, 68 (42.2%) ended their at bat ahead in the count.  The pitching staffs combined to issue 28 total walks (3 of them intentional).

The two games totaled 6 hours and 51 minutes.

For all that – as neither side took full advantage of their opportunities – the final scores were not all that extreme.  The Cubs took the opener, 7-2 (box score), with the Cards salvaging (barely) the night-cap, 6-3 (box score).  After racking up 18 runs on 18 hits in the Friday game, the Cards were just 2 for 20 (.100) in the double-header when they were ahead in the count.

Matt Carpenter

The story of the weekend was Cardinal first-baseman Matt Carpenter.  With home runs in each game of the double-header, Carpenter extended his historic home run streak to six games.  While the decision not to start Matt in the second game was a little questionable (how do you bench someone who has home runs in five straight games?) Carpenter did provide a seventh-inning home run that helped bring the Cards back late.

During the streak, Carpenter is 11 for 20 (.550) with all the hits being for extra-bases (3 doubles and 8 home runs) – resulting in a video-gamesque slugging percentage of 1.900.

Matt has 12 runs batted in during the six games, but he only has 1 game with multiple RBIs – the Friday game in which he drove in 7.  The home runs in the other five games were all solo shots – one of the residual complications of having your most consistent power hitter who can only hit in the lead-off spot.

At the double-header’s conclusion, Carpenter now has 72 plate appearances in the month of July.  They have resulted in 4 singles, 7 doubles, 10 home runs, 17 runs batted in, 13 walks (2 of them intentional) 10 strikeouts, 1 hit-by-pitch, and 0 double plays.  Matt’s July batting line is a satisfactory .362/.486/1.000.

Tommy Pham

While Carpenter has grabbed the headlines, Tommy Pham – whose first half was deeply marred by an epic slump – has bounced back recently with a vengeance.  In many ways, his recent production is almost as noteworthy as Carpenter’s.

Since Mike Shildt took over as manager, Pham has gone 10 of 17 (.588) including a double and a home run.  He has 8 runs batted in over those last 17 at bats – a span during which he is slugging an impressive .824.

After a fairly brutal start, Tommy is now hitting .316 with 15 runs batted in in 16 July games.  He has had 5 multi-RBI games already this month, including three, 3-RBI games.

When Tommy is seeing the ball well, he is almost always ahead in the count. In his 9 plate appearances over the double-header, Pham was ahead in the count 4 times.  In 65 July plate appearances, he has ended the at bat ahead 47.7% of the time.

Yairo Munoz

Yairo Munoz didn’t start the first game, but he came off the bench to get only the Cardinals’ second (and last) hit of that game – later scoring St Louis’ last run.  He did start game two, driving in the game-tying run in the eighth.

Playing time for Munoz has been less plentiful since Paul DeJong returned to the lineup.  Nonetheless, the rookie continues to produce when the opportunity presents itself.  Munoz is now 11 for his last 31 (.355), with 3 home runs and a double (a .677 slugging percentage) in spite of the fact that he has played in only 11 of the last 16 games – making just 7 starts.

Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna, on the other hand, just keeps starting.  Forty-four consecutive starts in left field for the former All-Star.  He was 1-for-7 in the double-header.  In 17 July games, Marcell has 73 plate appearances, resulting in 12 singles, 1 double, 7 runs batted in, 4 walks (1 intentional), 14 strikeouts, 1 sacrifice fly, and 1 double play.  It’s only a .191/.233/.206 batting line.

DexterFowler

The embattled Dexter Fowler is one of the players that Shildt has made a commitment to.  Dex has played in all five games played under the new regime – starting 4.  He was 0-for-5 in the double-header, and is now 3-for-19 (.158) for Shildt.  For the month of July, Fowler is 7 for 38 (.184).

Among the many puzzling aspects of Fowler’s season is his persistent inability to hit when ahead in the count.  He was ahead in 3 of his 5 appearances in the double-header, going 0-for-3 in those opportunities.  For the season – even though Fowler has found himself ahead in the count 40% of the time – he is still hitting just .186 (16 for 86) when he has the count in his favor.

John Gant

John Gant is not one of the major pitching prospects that people rave about in the Cardinal system, but since he was last recalled from Memphis, it has to be acknowledged that he has been the Cardinals’ best pitcher.  He made the start in the second game, throwing 5 innings of shutout baseball at the Cubs.  In his last 6 games (four of them starts), Gant is 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA and a .160 batting average against. 

Johnny doesn’t give in to hitters – even when behind.  Gant fell behind 7 of the 22 he faced yesterday.  He walked 3 but the others went 0-for-4 against him.  For the season, batters are hitting just .180 (9 for 50) when they are ahead of Gant in the count.

Greg Holland

After Gant’s five great innings, Greg Holland entered and promptly served up the lead.  Yes, an error on a double play ball could have gotten Greg out of the mess, but he still walked two in the inning (including one with the bases loaded).

A note to Mike Shildt.  One of the factors that cost your predecessor his job was that he kept allowing Holland to pitch in important situations.  I advise caution with his usage.

Jordan Hicks

While Holland set up the mess and was charged with the 3 Chicago runs in the sixth, they mostly scored with Jordan Hicks on the mound.  Jordan allowed 2 of the 3 inherited runners to score.  He has now allowed 6 of his last 8 to cross the plate.

There is much more to say about the bullpen, but I think that will be the focus of tomorrow’s post.

Nine-Game Road Trip Ends With a Whimper

The first two months of the season followed an eerily familiar script.  Game after game, the Cards received sterling efforts from their starting pitching.  But far too often that effort would be undermined by a largely impotent offense and a struggling bullpen.

Even though the team finished with a losing record in June, it could point with relief to the improvement in its relief.  After being scorched to the tune of a 5.27 ERA in May, the Cardinal bullpen seemed to right itself in June.  They put together a 3.51 ERA and held opponents to just a .230 batting average.

Meanwhile as the calendar flipped to July, the long-dormant offense seemed to spring to life.  Through the first nine games of this month, the Cards were scoring at a (for them) unheard of rate of 6.56 runs per game.

Last night, the season’s longest road trip ended with a vintage mid-May style loss.  Luke Weaver stood tall on the mound, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over his 6 innings.  He took the loss.  After scoring 14 runs the night before, the Cardinal offense limped off the field with no runs on just 4 hits.  Meanwhile, the bullpen allowed a close game to unravel – allowing 3 final runs over the last two innings.

The nine-game road trip ended with an un-inspiring 5-4 record, courtesy of last night’s very quiet 4-0 loss (box score).  They return home for a brief three-game series against Cincinnati before they will welcome the All-Star break.  Ninety-one games into the season, they sit at 47-44; 23-22 at home and 24-22 on the road.

Considering that the trip began in Arizona followed by a visit to San Francisco, I think the Cardinals and their fans have to be mostly satisfied with 5-4.  Even so, the quiet way that they were dominated last night brings us home with a feeling of unfinished business.  The 5-4 trip could have been quite a bit better with just a little more consistency.

Tommy Pham

On July 1, Tommy Pham called a halt to a 31 at bat hitless streak.  With 8 hits in his subsequent 18 at bats, it looked like Pham was back.  Since the last of those hits (a sixth-inning RBI single off of San Francisco’s Ty Blach on July 5) Tommy is riding another long hitless streak – 14 at bats.  His four strikeouts last night leave him with strikeouts in all of his last 6 plate appearances, and 8 in the 14 at bats.

The skid drops Tommy to just .235 (8 for 34) this month, with 12 strikeouts.  He finished this last road trip with a .200 average (6 for 30) with only one extra-base hit and 11 strikeouts.

Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna – one of the few offensive heroes of June – finished an un-inspiring road trip with an 0-for-4 evening.  Marcell – who has started 37 consecutive games – had 40 plate appearances on the road trip.  These resulted in 5 singles, 1 double, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts, 1 sacrifice fly, and 1 double play grounded into.  This calculates to a batting line of .158/.175/.184.

This fairly dismal road trip continues a strange trend in Ozuna’s season.  While most of the team hits better on the road than at home, the consistent story of Marcell’s season has been the reverse.  The Cardinals are scoring 4.74 runs per game on the road, hitting a home run for every 23.4 road at bats.  They score just 4.13 runs per game at home, with a home run every 31.9 at bats.

But Ozuna has thrived in spacious Busch.  He is hitting .313 (50 for 160) at home with 6 home runs.  He is now hitting just .233 (42 for 180) with 4 home runs and 11 walks away from home.  Marcell’s road on base percentage is just .273.

Ozuna – who hit 37 homeruns last year – hasn’t hit one since the first inning of a June 16 game against the Cubs.  That was 95 at bats ago.

Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler was one of the heroes of the 14-2 rout the night before.  He drove in 5 runs with a single and a grand slam.  He was 0-for-4 last night.  He is 2-for-14 for the month of July (.143).  While both Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong have recovered from dismal starts, Fowler’s batting average still sits at .170 for the season.

Luke Weaver

The Cardinal’s tough-luck loser was the bright spot of the evening.  His six strong innings provided his second consecutive mostly dominant performance (he pitched 8 innings of the 11-2 win in San Francisco no July 5).  Over his last 14 innings, Luke holds a 1.93 ERA and an opponents’ batting line of .109/.146/.174.

Weaver also finished off a road trip that saw the starting pitching come to the fore.  Cardinal starters threw 7 quality starts in the 9 games, and finished with a cumulative 3.04 ERA.

Too Bad the Same Thing Can’t Be Said For the Bullpen

Even as the rotation regained its footing after a little slide, the Cardinal relief corps started regressing back to its May standard.  They surrendered 3 more runs over the last 2 innings last night and finished the road trip with a combined 5.32 ERA and a .299 batting average against.

Mike Mayers

Just at the point where Mike Mayers was starting to be trusted with more critical situations, he has backtracked a bit.  His seventh inning last night turned a 1-0 White Sox lead into a 3-0 lead.  Over his last 4.1 innings, Mike has allowed 4 runs on 7 hits.  The last 19 batters he has faced are hitting .389 against him.

Jordan Hicks

Almost untouchable in the early days of his rookie season, Jordan Hicks gave up the last run in the eighth inning last night.  Jordan has now allowed runs in 3 of his last 5 games – giving a total of 5 runs in 6.1 innings (along with allowing both of his last two inherited runners to score).

It is no longer surprising to see runs score while Hicks is on the mound.

Next

The Cardinals are off today as they prepare for Cincinnati on Friday.  The Cards are 9-1 against the Reds this year, encouraging predictions of entering the break on a bit of a streak.  Let me caution you.  The Reds have won 19 of their last 28 games.  While it is true that they are still just 41-52, it is also true that St Louis has never managed a 28 game span with 19 wins.  No one should suppose that these games will be easy.

NoteBook

Last night’s loss snapped a five-game streak in which the Cards had scored the game’s first run.  It also ended an eight-game streak in which the Cardinals held a lead at some point in the game.

Position Wars on July 4

The season’s statistical half-way point has come and gone, and we have not yet done a position wars post.  This concept simply compares how the team does depending on who is starting at which position.

Catcher

Catcher, of course, for more than a decade in St Louis has belonged to Yadier Molina – who will likely tie Ted Simmons for fifteenth on the all-time games played list at this position tonight.  More than just a tradition, Molina is also having one of his best seasons.

That being said, St Louis (43-41 overall) is only 28-26 in Yadi’s starts so far this year, with a 3.90 team ERA.  Interestingly, Molina missed 26 games earlier with a medical issue – an absence that allowed a regular opportunity to some of the team’s other catchers.  The team was 13-13 in his absence.  Of the other catchers, Francisco Pena got the lion’s share of the starts, leading the Cards to a 9-8 record in his 17 starts.

For the season, so far, St Louis is 11-10 when Francisco starts.  The pitching staff also has enjoyed its most productive stretch with Pena behind the plate.  The starters have contributed 14 quality starts in Francisco’s 21 starts (they have only 21 in Yadi’s 54 starts) with a 3.20 team ERA.

To suggest from this that the team is better off without Molina would be a reckless reading of the data.  I do think, though, that this suggests that Pena is a more than capable backup who does a more than respectable job at handling the pitching staff.

Oh, and the team scores 4.48 runs per game when Yadi starts, against only 3.83 runs per game when Pena starts.

First Base

The off-season plan was to establish Jose Martinez at first base in an effort to keep his bat in the lineup.  And this they have mostly done – despite several defensive hiccups.  With the season 84 games gone, Martinez has started 72 of them at first base.  The only other Cardinal in double figures at first is Matt Carpenter – who started his tenth game of the season at first last night.  The numbers – to this point – tilt toward Martinez.  St Louis is 37-35 when Jose starts at first, and just 5-5 with Matt.  The scoring is up with Jose’s bat in the lineup (4.38 pg – 3.58).  Surprisingly, the team ERA is also noticeably better with Martinez at first (3.67) than without him (4.12).

Second Base

Kolten Wong’s continued batting struggles have made second base a much more fluid situation than planned going into the season.  Wong has only been able to keep himself in the lineup for 55 of the first 84 games. His ragged season has opened the door for Jedd Gyorko (13 starts) and Carpenter (11).

The half-season numbers mostly support Kolten’s continued presence in the lineup.  The team’s record with him at second is 29-26.  They are 6-5 with Carpenter and 5-8 with Gyorko.  Surprisingly, the offense performs better with Wong at second. The Cards average 4.40 runs in his games.  They score 3.85 runs per game when Gyorko starts at second and 3.82 when Carpenter starts there.

Also, surprisingly, the team ERA (3.27) is better when Carpenter plays second.  The team ERA is 3.53 when Wong starts, and 4.94 with Gyorko.

ShortStop

In the injury-plagued first-half, perhaps one of the most significant losses was to starting shortstop Paul DeJong.  After a break-out rookie season, DeJong was the reason that St Louis moved Aledmys Diaz.  Up until the pitch that broke his wrist, DeJong’s second season was going well enough.  If his average was an uninspiring .260, he had hit 8 home runs in his first 150 at bats, and managed an .824 OPS.

At the time, the fact that the Cards were 22-17 in the games that DeJong had started didn’t seem all that compelling – but in his absence the team has certainly struggled.  Last night’s game was the forty-fifth the Cards have played this season with someone else at short.  They are now 21-24 without DeJong.  Offensive production hasn’t been radically different.  St Louis scored 4.31 runs per game when DeJong started, and are still averaging 4.22 without him.  The surprising difference has been defensive.  In Paul’s 39 starts, the team allowed just 3.53 earned runs per nine innings.  The team ERA is 3.92 without him.

In DeJong’s absence, Yairo Munoz has gotten the lion’s share of the starts – 30 of them.  St Louis has responded with a 14-16 record.  Less flashy is Greg Garcia, but he has managed 11 starts this season at short.  The team is 6-5 in those games.  They have averaged only 3.55 runs per game when he starts, but the team ERA with Garcia at short is an impressive 2.51.

The Cards are about one game away from getting DeJong back, but Garcia is making a strong case to be the primary backup at this position.

Third Base

While it’s anyone’s guess where on the diamond Matt Carpenter will appear, he has mostly started (55 games) at third base.  When he moves around, that position is usually manned by Gyorko (24 games).  With neither having the kind of season that they are used to having, the numbers don’t show a lot of difference between the two.  When Matt starts at third, St Louis is 28-27, scoring 4.44 runs per game against a 3.97 team ERA.  The record with Jedd is 12-12, with the team scoring 4.00 runs per game and a maintaining 3.41 ERA.

Left Field

There really isn’t room for any discussion at this position.  Marcell Ozuna has started here for 78 of the 84 games so far this season.  For the record, in the six games started by other players, St Louis is 4-2 (they are 39-39 with Ozuna out there), and the ERA is better without Ozuna (2.83 v 3.80).  And, yes, the offense picks up, too (5.17 runs per game v 4.19).

Remember, though, it’s only 6 games.

Center Field

Tommy Pham has almost been as automatic in center field as Ozuna has been in left.  Last night was Tommy’s seventy-second start in center.  Harrison Bader, though, has gotten his name in the lineup here for 11 games.  Considering the difference in opportunity, the results are fairly similar.  The Cards are 37-35 with Pham in center, and 6-5 with Bader.  The offensive advantage goes to Pham, 4.38 runs per game to just 3.82.  Interestingly, the team ERA is only 3.12 with Harrison in center.  In Tommy’s starts, the team ERA is 3.81.

Right Field

As the season cruises into its second half, right field is drawing increasing attention.  As with Wong, Dexter Fowler’s worst season ever has him trying to fend off the challenge from Bader.  Since the perception has been that Harrison has been a significant upgrade both offensively and defensively over the struggling Fowler, it’s a little surprising to note how much better this team has played with Dexter in right than with Harrison.

St Louis is 32-23 when Dexter starts in right (a .581 winning percentage that is better than any other Cardinal in any other position).  They are 8-16 when Bader starts.  In spite of Dexter’s offensive inconsistencies, the Cards are scoring 4.35 runs per game with Fowler in right, and only 3.88 when Bader starts.  And, in spite of Harrison’s highlight-reel defensive play, the team ERA is actually lower when Dexter starts 3.50 – 4.42.

A better second half from Fowler is one of the principle beliefs that the Cards are pinning their second half hopes on.  His entire career strongly suggests that he is better than he’s shown.

About Last Night

Yes, it was Zack Greinke on the mound against them last night, but the floundering St Louis offense is making everyone in baseball look like Zack Greinke.

In going down 4-2 (box score) the Cards have now dropped 5 of their last 6.  They have scored, now, just 19 runs in those 6 games (3.17 per) with a .217/283/.323 team batting line.  They are coming off a 12-15 May during which they hit .239 and scored 4.00 runs per game.

Tommy Pham

A couple games ago, Tommy Pham broke his 0-for34 streak.  To this point, it has yet to turn his season around.  He was hitless again last night in 4 at bats.  Over the last 6 games, Pham is hitting just .150 (3 for 20) – although the quality of his at bats have gotten better.  He has drawn 5 walks in the last 6 games – leading to a .320 on base percentage.

Pham is coming off a miserable May that saw him get 102 plate appearances over 26 games.  His totals for those plate appearances were just 16 singles, 3 home runs, 5 runs batted in, 6 walks, 25 strikeouts and 3 double plays.  Tommy’s batting line for the month just ended was .198/.245/.292.  He has gone 34 games without a double.

Marcell Ozuna

One of the bright spots in May, Marcell Ozuna is one of the bats that have faded of late.  During the struggles of the last six games, Ozuna has been to the plate 23 times.  Those results have been 3 singles, no runs batted in and 9 strikeouts – a batting line of .130/.130/.130.

Marcell has gone 7 games without a run batted in, and 16 games without a home run.

Jack Flaherty

One of the features of the recent losing skid has been shaky starting pitching.  Over the last 6 games, the starters have managed just 32.1 innings, during which they have served up 6 home runs and a .282/.343/.496 batting line.  One mis-located slider thrown to Paul Goldschmidt turned Jack Flaherty’s potential quality start into another loss.  Jack has started 2 of the last 6 games.  He has thrown a combined 10 innings in the two games, serving up 3 home runs and 8 runs.  Over his last 7 starts, Jack has lost 3 of 4 decisions, with a 3.99 ERA.

Sam Tuivailala

Although Austin Gomber almost cost him a run, Sam Tuivailala worked through a scoreless 1.1 innings last night.  Encouraging to see him keep teams off the scoreboard.  Sam has had a few rough outings lately, but his ERA is still 3.16 for the season, and 2.91 over his last 21.2 innings.

Ozuna Turning it On

The moment was pregnant with opportunity.

The Cardinals had just recovered from their second deficit of the game, and finally – on an RBI double by Matt Carpenter – had taken their first lead of the afternoon in the seventh inning of their May 19 game against Philadelphia.  It was now a 6-5 Cardinal lead.  A groundball had pushed Carpenter to third.  He was there with one out representing a critical insurance run.  And to the plate came Marcell Ozuna.  This would be his moment. 

Phillie reliever Tommy Hunter could have put him on, but with Jedd Gyorko on deck, he decided to come right at Ozuna.  Before the crowd could even get into the at bat, it was over.  Marcell topped Hunter’s second pitch to short, and Carpenter was dead at the plate.  More than 44,000 sat quietly as Gyorko ended the inning with a fly-ball.

True to form, Philadelphia scored two in the eighth off of struggling reliever Greg Holland.  Ozuna never came to the plate again, and St Louis lost 6-7 (box score).

The ground ball capped another 0-for-4 night for Ozuna – stretching his hitless streak to twenty-two at bats going back more than five games.  At this point Ozuna – a 37-home run man the season before when he slashed .312/.376/.548 – was skidding through his first season as a Cardinal.  His line fell to .234/.275/.316 with only 3 home runs through 171 at bats.

Where – Cardinal Nation wondered – was the real Ozuna?

After sitting out the finale of the Philly series, Marcel was back in there on Monday, May 21 against Kansas City and Ian Kennedy.  After drawing a walk his first time up, Marcell ended his hitless streak with a sharp grounder into right field.  The hit drove in a run – Carpenter, as it turned out – and sent the Cards on their way to a 6-0 victory (box score).  Marcell also singled his next time up.

He hasn’t stopped hitting since.

There were few Cardinal highlights in last night’s humbling 4-2 loss to San Diego (box score), but Ozuna was one of the few.  He finished the night with two more hits – including the two-run home run that accounted for all of St Louis’ scoring.  The hits pushed his current hitting streak to seven games – three of which have been multi-hit games.  The home run was his third during the streak, and he has now driven in 8 runs over his last 7 games.

He has now also hit safely in 11 of his 12 June games – starting the month as a potential player of the month candidate.  He is now 18 for 45 (.400) in June with 5 home runs and a triple – a .778 slugging percentage.  He has 14 runs batted in in his 12 June games.

Stretching back to that game against Kansas City, Marcel has hits in 17 of his last 19 starts. He is 29 of his last 70 – a .414 batting average

Since this is the first time we’ve ever seen Ozuna really hot, I thought we might compare some of the “under the radar” numbers from his early season struggles against those same numbers now that things are going better for him.  The attempt here is to try to get a kind of statistical signature for Marcell.

In his first 182 Cardinal plate appearances, Marcell appeared over-ready for that first pitch.  While the entire team swings at the first pitch of an at bat just 28.1% of the time, Ozuna was cresting at an aggressive 38.5%.  Beginning with the Kansas City series, Marcell has chased that first pitch a more normal 30.8% of the time.  This little bit of discipline has given Ozuna a significant advantage in his recent at bats.  Before, he was getting first-pitch strikes 65.4% of the time.  Of late, though, only 51.3% of the first pitches thrown to him are strikes, putting him in early hitter’s counts more frequently.

The numbers also suggest that Ozuna is commanding the strike zone exponentially better as the season wears on.  Since the Kansas City series, only 22.6% of the pitches that Ozuna has taken have been called strikes, while 44.1% of all pitches thrown him have been balls.  The team-wide benchmark for those numbers are 32.8% of pitches taken called strikes and 37.3 % of all pitches thrown being balls.  What this means, simply, is that Ozuna is not letting strikes go by, while not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.

Most remarkable, though, has been Marcell’s recent ability to put the ball in play.  Through his first 182 plate appearances, he missed entirely on 25.3% of his swings, fouling off another 36.8% of his swings, and putting the ball in play just 37.9% of the time.  The team averages are 23.8% missed, 37.8% fouled, and 38.3% put in play.  Over his last 78 plate appearances, Ozuna has swung at 117 pitches.  He has missed with only 19 swings (16.2%), while producing just 32 fouls (27.4%).  This means that on 66 of those swings, Marcell has put the ball in play – an impressive 56.4%.  By comparison, Jose Martinez leads the team, putting the ball in play 45.3% of the time that he swings.

This portrays Ozuna as an aggressive-in-the-strike-zone hitter, who infrequently chases balls and has excellent enough bat control that he puts the ball in play most of the time.  And he can do this with power.

The down-the-line results of this approach include shorter at bats.  Even though he more frequently takes the first pitch, his pitches per at bat have dropped from 3.82 early in the season to just 3.49 over his more recent at bats.

The other side-effect of this efficiency is fewer strikeouts in general, and fewer times caught looking.  Marcell struck out 40 times in his first 182 plate appearances – with 13 of those coming on called third strikes.  Over his last 78 trips to the plate, Marcell has just 5 strike outs – being called out just once.

It’s been an impressive run.  Now, the question is how long we can keep him in this zone.

Little Help for Ozuna

While Ozuna kept up his heroics, he had few supporters.  The team managed just 6 other hits (all singles) and no other runs.  Over the first 12 games in June, the offense still shows no signs of sustaining anything.  They are now scoring 3.67 runs per game this month, and hitting .244.

Yadier Molina

The team has, of course, missed the leadership of its captain Yadier Molina – who missed a chunk of time recovering from surgery.    He hasn’t returned to the lineup as sharp as he left it.  Hitless in three at bats last night, Molina has had 32 plate appearances this month.  He’s managed 5 singles, 1 double, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts, one hit by pitch, and one sacrifice fly.  This works out to a disappointing .207/.250/.241 batting line.  Yadi’s is one of the bats that the Cards are hoping will get well soon.

Yairo Munoz

Provider of a big lift to the offense when he first took over for the injured Paul DeJong, Yairo Munoz has hit the skids as the calendar has turned to June.  He has been to the plate 41 times in 11 games so far this month, supplying 5 singles, 1 home run, 2 walks (1 intentional), 10 strikeouts, and 1 sacrifice fly – a .158/.195/.237 June batting line.

Yairo’s free-swinging ways served him fairly well earlier. Lately, though, not so much.  He swung at 6 of the 11 pitches thrown him last night, missing on two of the swings.  For the season, Munoz hacks at 56.9% of the pitches thrown to him (the highest ratio of anyone on the team with at least 90 plate appearances).  He misses on 30.7% of those swings – second on the team only to DeJong among players with at least 70 plate appearances.

Kolten Wong

Hitless in three at bats, Kolten Wong’s season just cannot gain any kind of traction.  Down to .182 for the season, Kolten is now at .192 (5 for 26) for the month and struggling to get chances in the lineup. 

The numbers suggest that Wong is really pressing now.  Last year, when he had it working, Kolten took pitches, worked counts, and didn’t swing and miss very often.  Through the first two months of this season, Wong saw 3.78 pitches per plate appearances, and only missed on 17.4% of his swings.  This month, he is missing 28.9% of the time when he swings, and is only seeing 3.47 pitches per appearance.

Luke Weaver

Luke Weaver suffered through his third shaky outing in his last four.  He took the loss, lasting just 5.1 innings while giving all 4 runs on 9 hits.  He hasn’t made it through six innings in any of those last four games, and has a 5.12 ERA and a .304 batting average against over the last 19.1 innings that he has pitched. 

Clean innings have been few and far between for Mr. Weaver.  Last night, of the six innings he started, only one was a three-up, three-down inning.  Through his three starts this month, he is averaging 4.57 batters faced per nine innings, the most by any member of the staff that has pitched at least ten innings in June.  This month he has been throwing 18.26 pitches per inning.  This has raised his season average to 17.33 pitches per inning – the most by any pitcher on the staff with at least 19 innings pitched.

John Brebbia

With the Cardinal offense already shut down for the day, all that was left for John Brebbia to do was to hold the game close.  He did so with two perfect innings, striking out three.  In a bullpen that has been struggling, Brebbia has to start getting noticed.  Over his last 4.2 innings he has struck out 8.  In his 6 June appearances, he has allowed no runs on just 2 hits over 6.2 innings, and he has now thrown 8 consecutive scoreless outings – totaling 8.1 innings.  Twenty-one of the last 62 swings taken against him have missed – an impressive 33.9%.

John threw strikes with 16 of his 19 pitches last night (84.2%).  He has now thrown strikes with 68.2% of his pitches this month.  Of all pitchers with at least 5 innings pitched this month, only Miles Mikolas (71.9%) and Jordan Hicks (70.2%) are throwing more strikes.

NoteBook

The San Diego series was only the eighth of St Louis’ first 22 series that went to a rubber game.  The Cards start the season just 3-5 in rubber games.  They are also just 2-5-1 in series against teams that had won their previous series.

The Cardinals drew no walks over the last two games of the series.