Tag Archives: Tuivailala

Position Wars on July 4

The season’s statistical half-way point has come and gone, and we have not yet done a position wars post.  This concept simply compares how the team does depending on who is starting at which position.

Catcher

Catcher, of course, for more than a decade in St Louis has belonged to Yadier Molina – who will likely tie Ted Simmons for fifteenth on the all-time games played list at this position tonight.  More than just a tradition, Molina is also having one of his best seasons.

That being said, St Louis (43-41 overall) is only 28-26 in Yadi’s starts so far this year, with a 3.90 team ERA.  Interestingly, Molina missed 26 games earlier with a medical issue – an absence that allowed a regular opportunity to some of the team’s other catchers.  The team was 13-13 in his absence.  Of the other catchers, Francisco Pena got the lion’s share of the starts, leading the Cards to a 9-8 record in his 17 starts.

For the season, so far, St Louis is 11-10 when Francisco starts.  The pitching staff also has enjoyed its most productive stretch with Pena behind the plate.  The starters have contributed 14 quality starts in Francisco’s 21 starts (they have only 21 in Yadi’s 54 starts) with a 3.20 team ERA.

To suggest from this that the team is better off without Molina would be a reckless reading of the data.  I do think, though, that this suggests that Pena is a more than capable backup who does a more than respectable job at handling the pitching staff.

Oh, and the team scores 4.48 runs per game when Yadi starts, against only 3.83 runs per game when Pena starts.

First Base

The off-season plan was to establish Jose Martinez at first base in an effort to keep his bat in the lineup.  And this they have mostly done – despite several defensive hiccups.  With the season 84 games gone, Martinez has started 72 of them at first base.  The only other Cardinal in double figures at first is Matt Carpenter – who started his tenth game of the season at first last night.  The numbers – to this point – tilt toward Martinez.  St Louis is 37-35 when Jose starts at first, and just 5-5 with Matt.  The scoring is up with Jose’s bat in the lineup (4.38 pg – 3.58).  Surprisingly, the team ERA is also noticeably better with Martinez at first (3.67) than without him (4.12).

Second Base

Kolten Wong’s continued batting struggles have made second base a much more fluid situation than planned going into the season.  Wong has only been able to keep himself in the lineup for 55 of the first 84 games. His ragged season has opened the door for Jedd Gyorko (13 starts) and Carpenter (11).

The half-season numbers mostly support Kolten’s continued presence in the lineup.  The team’s record with him at second is 29-26.  They are 6-5 with Carpenter and 5-8 with Gyorko.  Surprisingly, the offense performs better with Wong at second. The Cards average 4.40 runs in his games.  They score 3.85 runs per game when Gyorko starts at second and 3.82 when Carpenter starts there.

Also, surprisingly, the team ERA (3.27) is better when Carpenter plays second.  The team ERA is 3.53 when Wong starts, and 4.94 with Gyorko.

ShortStop

In the injury-plagued first-half, perhaps one of the most significant losses was to starting shortstop Paul DeJong.  After a break-out rookie season, DeJong was the reason that St Louis moved Aledmys Diaz.  Up until the pitch that broke his wrist, DeJong’s second season was going well enough.  If his average was an uninspiring .260, he had hit 8 home runs in his first 150 at bats, and managed an .824 OPS.

At the time, the fact that the Cards were 22-17 in the games that DeJong had started didn’t seem all that compelling – but in his absence the team has certainly struggled.  Last night’s game was the forty-fifth the Cards have played this season with someone else at short.  They are now 21-24 without DeJong.  Offensive production hasn’t been radically different.  St Louis scored 4.31 runs per game when DeJong started, and are still averaging 4.22 without him.  The surprising difference has been defensive.  In Paul’s 39 starts, the team allowed just 3.53 earned runs per nine innings.  The team ERA is 3.92 without him.

In DeJong’s absence, Yairo Munoz has gotten the lion’s share of the starts – 30 of them.  St Louis has responded with a 14-16 record.  Less flashy is Greg Garcia, but he has managed 11 starts this season at short.  The team is 6-5 in those games.  They have averaged only 3.55 runs per game when he starts, but the team ERA with Garcia at short is an impressive 2.51.

The Cards are about one game away from getting DeJong back, but Garcia is making a strong case to be the primary backup at this position.

Third Base

While it’s anyone’s guess where on the diamond Matt Carpenter will appear, he has mostly started (55 games) at third base.  When he moves around, that position is usually manned by Gyorko (24 games).  With neither having the kind of season that they are used to having, the numbers don’t show a lot of difference between the two.  When Matt starts at third, St Louis is 28-27, scoring 4.44 runs per game against a 3.97 team ERA.  The record with Jedd is 12-12, with the team scoring 4.00 runs per game and a maintaining 3.41 ERA.

Left Field

There really isn’t room for any discussion at this position.  Marcell Ozuna has started here for 78 of the 84 games so far this season.  For the record, in the six games started by other players, St Louis is 4-2 (they are 39-39 with Ozuna out there), and the ERA is better without Ozuna (2.83 v 3.80).  And, yes, the offense picks up, too (5.17 runs per game v 4.19).

Remember, though, it’s only 6 games.

Center Field

Tommy Pham has almost been as automatic in center field as Ozuna has been in left.  Last night was Tommy’s seventy-second start in center.  Harrison Bader, though, has gotten his name in the lineup here for 11 games.  Considering the difference in opportunity, the results are fairly similar.  The Cards are 37-35 with Pham in center, and 6-5 with Bader.  The offensive advantage goes to Pham, 4.38 runs per game to just 3.82.  Interestingly, the team ERA is only 3.12 with Harrison in center.  In Tommy’s starts, the team ERA is 3.81.

Right Field

As the season cruises into its second half, right field is drawing increasing attention.  As with Wong, Dexter Fowler’s worst season ever has him trying to fend off the challenge from Bader.  Since the perception has been that Harrison has been a significant upgrade both offensively and defensively over the struggling Fowler, it’s a little surprising to note how much better this team has played with Dexter in right than with Harrison.

St Louis is 32-23 when Dexter starts in right (a .581 winning percentage that is better than any other Cardinal in any other position).  They are 8-16 when Bader starts.  In spite of Dexter’s offensive inconsistencies, the Cards are scoring 4.35 runs per game with Fowler in right, and only 3.88 when Bader starts.  And, in spite of Harrison’s highlight-reel defensive play, the team ERA is actually lower when Dexter starts 3.50 – 4.42.

A better second half from Fowler is one of the principle beliefs that the Cards are pinning their second half hopes on.  His entire career strongly suggests that he is better than he’s shown.

About Last Night

Yes, it was Zack Greinke on the mound against them last night, but the floundering St Louis offense is making everyone in baseball look like Zack Greinke.

In going down 4-2 (box score) the Cards have now dropped 5 of their last 6.  They have scored, now, just 19 runs in those 6 games (3.17 per) with a .217/283/.323 team batting line.  They are coming off a 12-15 May during which they hit .239 and scored 4.00 runs per game.

Tommy Pham

A couple games ago, Tommy Pham broke his 0-for34 streak.  To this point, it has yet to turn his season around.  He was hitless again last night in 4 at bats.  Over the last 6 games, Pham is hitting just .150 (3 for 20) – although the quality of his at bats have gotten better.  He has drawn 5 walks in the last 6 games – leading to a .320 on base percentage.

Pham is coming off a miserable May that saw him get 102 plate appearances over 26 games.  His totals for those plate appearances were just 16 singles, 3 home runs, 5 runs batted in, 6 walks, 25 strikeouts and 3 double plays.  Tommy’s batting line for the month just ended was .198/.245/.292.  He has gone 34 games without a double.

Marcell Ozuna

One of the bright spots in May, Marcell Ozuna is one of the bats that have faded of late.  During the struggles of the last six games, Ozuna has been to the plate 23 times.  Those results have been 3 singles, no runs batted in and 9 strikeouts – a batting line of .130/.130/.130.

Marcell has gone 7 games without a run batted in, and 16 games without a home run.

Jack Flaherty

One of the features of the recent losing skid has been shaky starting pitching.  Over the last 6 games, the starters have managed just 32.1 innings, during which they have served up 6 home runs and a .282/.343/.496 batting line.  One mis-located slider thrown to Paul Goldschmidt turned Jack Flaherty’s potential quality start into another loss.  Jack has started 2 of the last 6 games.  He has thrown a combined 10 innings in the two games, serving up 3 home runs and 8 runs.  Over his last 7 starts, Jack has lost 3 of 4 decisions, with a 3.99 ERA.

Sam Tuivailala

Although Austin Gomber almost cost him a run, Sam Tuivailala worked through a scoreless 1.1 innings last night.  Encouraging to see him keep teams off the scoreboard.  Sam has had a few rough outings lately, but his ERA is still 3.16 for the season, and 2.91 over his last 21.2 innings.

Rotation Continues to Spiral

After the game, Michael Wacha described it “like a little stitch or a cramp or something in my left side.”  What the long-term effects of this injury will be remain to be seen – both for Wacha and the Cardinal rotation.  As for last night, it prompted an early exit for Wacha after only 75 pitches and 3.2 innings of a not terribly effective start.  He had already allowed 3 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits (including a home run) and two walks.  He wouldn’t figure in the decision in a game the Cards eventually lost 4-3 (box score), their sixth loss in their last eight games.

For Wacha (who is now headed to the disabled list) this is an added concern as this effort came on the heels of what was arguably the worst start of his career.  In 4 innings against the Cubs his previous time out, he was battered for 9 runs (8 earned).  He allowed 7 hits (3 of them home runs) and 4 walks.

Through his first 13 mostly excellent starts, Michael fashioned an 8-1 record and a 2.47 ERA.  Batters were hitting just .201 against him.  In 76.2 innings he had allowed just 5 home runs and 9 doubles – leading to just a .288 slugging percentage.

In the 7.2 innings he’s managed over his last two starts, he has served up 4 home runs while being hit at a .382 clip with a .794 slugging percentage against.  His ERA over these last two starts sits at 10.57 (with three more un-earned runs allowed).

Diagnosed, now, with an oblique strain, it is anyone’s guess what the future holds for the talented Michael Wacha.

This stumble comes in the midst of the rotation’s worst stretch of the season.  They have now gone 7 games without a quality start.  During these contests, Cardinal starters have made it through just 33 innings, allowing 27 runs on 43 hits and 21 walks.  The rotation’s ERA through those games has risen to 6.55 with a .316/.417/.544 batting line against.  For most of the season, the rotation has been the one reliable element in the equation.

Through the first 18 games this month, the Cardinal rotation has cobbled together just 5 quality starts, posting a 4-6 record and a 4.47 ERA.

Given the inexperience of the current rotation – especially given the uncertainty now surrounding Wacha – it is impossible to say how soon – or even if – the rotation will regain its footing.

Mike Mayers

Leading off a decent bullpen performance last night was Mike Mayers.  An impressive arm in spring training, Mayers has been back and forth to AAA several time already.  In many ways, he seems to be getting better every time he returns. 

Last night, he allowed no hits in his 1.1 innings.  Since his latest recall, he is holding batters to a .174 batting average.  He allowed no home runs.  He served up 3 in his first 10.2 innings this season.  He has now allowed none over his last 13 innings.  He struck out only 6 batters through his first 11.2 innings.  With his three strike outs last night, Mayers has 16 over his last 12 innings.  Mike has a live arm.  With each outing, Mayers suggests that he might be one of the answers in what has been a struggling bullpen.

Mike is also one of the Cardinal relievers who is proving that he can work multiple innings.  Last night was the ninth game this season that Mike has finished an inning and gone out to start the next inning.  In the 10.2 additional innings he has worked, he has 12 strikeouts, a .158 batting average against, and a 1.69 ERA.  Mayers – you will remember – did a lot of starting in the minors.

It is also interesting that the Cards tied the game with two runs while Mayers was the pitcher of record.  In the 14 innings he has pitched this month, his offense has now scored him 12 runs (7.71 per nine innings).

Brett Cecil

The good news for struggling left-hander Brett Cecil is that he allowed no runs for the first time in his last four outings.  Even so, a few reminders of his season-long struggle remained.

For one thing, it was another high-effort outing for Brett.  By the time he had finished his inning, he had thrown 19 more pitches.  In his 7 June innings, he has averaged 20.14 pitches per inning.  For the season, his 12.2 major league innings have cost him 231 pitches – an elevated average of 18.24 per.

Additionally, the one hit he surrendered was another double.  Six of the 16 hits he has allowed this year have been for extra-bases – leading to a .531 slugging percentage against him.

One of the factors tilting against Brett, now, is the infrequency of his appearances.  No longer trusted with many important situations, Cecil almost always pitches on three or four days’ rest.  In those games, he averages 20.14 pitches per inning.

Sam Tuivailala

Heading in the opposite direction from Mayers is last night’s losing pitcher, Sam Tuivailala.  It was his hanging slider to Odubel Herrera that accounted for the difference in the game.  Through his first 12.2 innings this season, Sam held a 2.13 ERA.  He has now allowed runs in 5 of his last 9 appearances, totaling 9.1 innings.  During this span, he holds a 5.79 ERA and a .308 opponent’s batting average.

The early returns on Sam’ season seem to suggest that he (unlike Cecil) prospers with more rest.  Last night was the eleventh time this season that Tuivailala has pitched with less than two days’ rest.  In those 11.2 innings, Sam holds a 5.56 ERA, with a .348 batting average against.  With at least two days (over only 7.2 innings I grant), his ERA is just 1.17 with a .258 batting average against.

Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina was the offensive spark last night.  He hit two home runs and drove in three.  The rest of the team combined for 5 hits and no runs batted in.

Yadi has now played (and started) 14 games since his return from surgery.  He is hitting a respectable .277 in those games (13 for 47), but 6 of those hits have now been for extra-bases (3 doubles and 3 home runs) adding up to a .532 slugging percentage.

Greg Garcia

Greg Garcia has been making a recent bid to earn more playing time – especially as Yairo Munoz’ bat has cooled a bit.  Greg had 2 hits last night and is 6 for 18 (.333) this month, and hitting .304 (14 for 46) over his last 29 games (9 starts). Only one of those hits is for extra-bases, but Greg holds a .377 on base percentage over his last 53 plate appearances.

Tommy Pham

Among the casualties of last night’s loss (along with Wacha) was Tommy Pham’s very quiet 13-game hitting streak.  Tommy went 0-for-5 last night, grounding out to end the game with the tying run at second.

During the streak, Pham had only 3 multi-hit games, and hit a modest .291 (16 for 55).  He only drove in 3 runs during those games – all on solo home runs.

Pham has walked just 3 times this month, during which he holds a .289 on base percentage.

Dexter Fowler

The season’s highlight, so far, came on Sunday night May 6.  Trailing by one run in the bottom of the fourteenth inning, Dexter Fowler served a walk-off, two-run home run that sent St Louis on to a 4-3 conquest of the Chicago Cubs.  That blow gave the Birds a season-long five-game winning streak (a feat they have subsequently matched) and put them a season-high eight games over .500 (20-12), a mark they have also reached since.  It also pushed their lead in the division to 1.5 games – rarified air that they haven’t seen since.

It was also significant because it was Fowler swinging the bat.  Dexter – enduring a miserable start to the season – could well have used that swing as advance notice that things were about to turn around.

That was now 40 games ago.  Last night’s loss was the twenty-second in that 40 game span, dropping the Cards back down to 4.5 games behind the Cubs and Brewers who are in a virtual tie for first.

And, of course, it was virtually the last noise heard off the bat of Fowler.  Since that singular moment, Fowler has 15 hits (12 singles and 3 doubles) with 4 runs batted in in 87 at bats – a .172 batting average, coupled with a .207 slugging percentage.

Amazingly, Fowler’s season seems to be getting even worse.  His 0-for-4 last night drops him to just 1 for his last 23 (.043).

Kolten Wong

The night before Fowler’s home run sent the Cards home victorious, it was Kolten Wong’s two-run tenth-inning home run that gave St Louis the walk-off win.  Wong – also off to a terrible start – had been a notable contributor to the May 6 victory as well.  He had 3 hits (including a triple) and a run batted in.

Kolten also looked like he was about to turn his season around.  He was hitless in four at bats last night, and is only 14 for 88 (.159) over the team’s last 40 games.

Over the last 40 games, Fowler and Wong have combined to strike out 42 times in 175 at bats.  Their unending struggles continue to hamstring an offense that still believes itself to be among baseball’s best.

Recent Scoring Changes

In the 5-1 loss to Kansas City on May 22, Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna were originally credited with a double steal of home and second respectively.  That has since been reversed.  Martinez has actually now been charged with a caught stealing at home, and safe on an error – with Ozuna advancing on the throw.

In the May 28 loss to Milwaukee, Brewer pitcher Brent Suter was originally credited with a 2-run double when his fourth-inning ground ball eluded Martinez at first.  That was changed to an error for Martinez, and two unearned runs against Luke Weaver.

Living in a Grinders Paradise

A trend I have mentioned a few times over the last part of the season reached – I hope – its nadir last night.  A Cardinal team that seems increasingly unwilling to swing the bat watched pitch after pitch go by last night.  Of the 173 pitches delivered over 11 grueling innings in a game the Cardinals desperately needed to keep alive their faint playoff hopes, the Cards swung at only 62 (36%).  They did grind – averaging as a team 4.22 pitches per plate appearance (for context, Matt Carpenter averages 4.45 pitches per plate appearance for the season).  But 40.5% of the pitches they took were called strikes, leading to 17 strikeouts and only 4 walks.  Eight of the 17 Cardinals who struck out were called out on strikes

Meanwhile, St Louis finished the eleven-inning fiasco with 1 run and only 6 hits.  The team batting average falls to .239 for the month.

Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham was about the only offense the Cards had going for them last night.  With 2 singles and a walk, Pham added 2 stolen bases and scored the team’s only run.  Tommy is still finishing strong.  He is now up to .306 with a .444 on base percentage for the month.  Since the All-Star Break, Pham is hitting .321 (75 for 234) with a .437 on base percentage (Tommy has walked 43 times, been hit by 6 pitches, and has stolen 14 bases in 17 attempts in the season’s second half).

Of the 29 pitches tossed to Tommy last night, he only swung at 7.  All season, Pham has been one of the most selective of the Cardinal hitters.  For the season, he only swings at 38.1% of the pitches he sees.  As the season goes on, though, Tommy is getting even more selective.  This month, his swing percentage is down to 33.4%.

Matt Carpenter

Struggling with a balky shoulder off and on all year, Matt Carpenter’s season came to an ignominious end with an 0-for-4 that featured 4 strikeouts.  Matt finishes September hitting .230 (but with a .420 on base percentage as he drew his twentieth walk in his twenty-one games).

When Carpenter came to the plate in the third inning with a runner at first and one out, it would be the 97th and final opportunity for Matt to ground into a double play.  He struck out.  One thing about striking out and hitting fly balls – they keep you out of double plays.  Matt bounced into only 5 all year.  Among season-long regulars, his 5.2% was the lowest on the team.

After the game, Matt admitted to taking pitches he might otherwise have swung at.  The evidence is in the statistics.  Over the course of the season, Carpenter swung at the first pitch just 13.2% of the time.  In the second half of the season, that ratio dropped to only 9.2%.  In 82 September plate appearances, Carpenter swung at the first pitch just 3 times.

Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler couldn’t break out of his late season swoon in time to extend the Cardinals hopes.  He was also 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts.  Fowler welcomes Milwaukee hitting just .185 (5 for 27) over his last 7 games.

Fowler swung the bat 13 times last night, missing on 6 of the swings.  During the month of September, Dexter is missing on a team-leading 30.6% of his swings – higher even than Randal Grichuk’s 30.1%.

Dexter also saw 29 pitches last night (5.8 per).  For the month of September he trails only Carpenter in pitches per PA with 4.24.

Stephen Piscotty

As he returned from Memphis, Piscotty expressed the hope that he could get hot coming down the stretch.  That didn’t happen.  Piscotty went hitless in 3 at bats last night, and is 0 for 13 over his last 5 games.  It has been 15 games since Stephen has driven in a run – a span during which he has hit .191 (9 for 47) with only 2 extra base hits.  His September average is down to .231, and for the second half it’s down to just .229 (25 for 109).

Piscotty also had an opportunity to bounce into a double play.  In the fourth inning he had Jedd Gyorko on first with one out.  Stephen didn’t bounce into the double play.  He struck out into it instead.  Still, this month, Piscotty has bounced into just 1 DP in 17 such opportunities.

Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly made his fourth start in the last five games last night.  He is 1 for 15 (.067), and is 0 for 11 since Yadier Molina went on concussion protocol.  Carson is the top rated catching prospect in baseball.  It would help, though, if he would get a hit once in a while.

All four first pitches to Carson last night were strikes – although he only swung at one of them.  In his 30 plate appearances, Carson is seeing first pitch strikes 76.7% of the time.  No other non-pitcher on the team is getting challenged with the first pitch as often as Kelly.

Kelly swung the bat 4 times last night, fouling a pitch off and putting the ball in play with his other swings.  Kelly has only missed on 16.2% of his swings since joining the team.  He is also putting the ball in play with an impressive 49.5% of his swings.

Lance Lynn

If this was, indeed, Lance Lynn’s last start as a Cardinal it ended on a fairly ironic note.  Noted early in his career for the consistency of run support that he received, Lance will exit seeing no runs scored for him in his last game.  Moreover, this will be the third time in his last 5 games that St Louis was kept off the scoreboard while he was the pitcher of record.  In fact, over his last 27 starts, the Cardinals averaged just 3.00 runs per start for him.

Lance, nonetheless, finishes with an excellent 3.43 ERA – which was 3.21 in 15 second half starts in his first season returned from Tommy John surgery.

Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil delivered a scoreless seventh in the tie game, and continues to show incremental improvement in the season’s dying days.  His September ERA drops to 2.25 in 12 innings.  He had them three-up-and-three down on 9 pitches last night.  In his September innings, Brett is only facing 3.42 batter per inning, and throwing just 12.08 pitches per inning.  Over the course of the whole season, Cecil has thrown just 3.58 pitches per batter.

Eight of his nine pitches were strikes.  He spent almost the entire first half looking for the strike zone, as only 63.5% of his pre-All-Star Game pitches were strikes.  Between the break and the beginning of September, his percentage jumped to 69.4%.  This month, 73.1% of his pitches have been strikes.

Juan Nicasio

Juan Nicasio kept them off the board in the eighth, but it took him 20 pitches to work through the inning.  Since he has been a Cardinal, Juan has averaged 17.5 pitches per inning, and 4.38 pitches per batter.  Only Tyler Lyons (18.45 and 4.41) has thrown more pitches per inning and per batter this month than Nicasio.

Sam Tuivailala

Sam Tuivailala kept the game tied through the ninth.  Sam has been having a very solid September.  He now has a 2.00 ERA in 9 innings this month.  He faced only 3 batters last night, throwing 7 strikes in just 9 pitches.  This month, Sam is averaging just 3.56 batters per inning, just 12.00 pitches thrown per inning, just 3.38 pitches per batter, while throwing strikes with 73.1% of his pitches.

John Brebbia

John Brebbia dispatched his 3 batters in the tenth (including one who struck out) on only 8 pitches.  Even though Brebbia has struck out 17 batters in 10.2 innings this month, he has done so throwing a surprisingly economical 3.36 pitches per batter.  Seven of last night’s eight pitches were strikes.  John throws strikes 68.5% of the time over the course of the season.

Matthew Bowman

Matthew Bowman faced 5 batters in last night’s decisive eleventh inning.  One of them struck out, and the other four hit ground balls.  It resulted in two hits and the run that eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention.  That’s the way the ball bounces sometimes.

Matthew has gotten ground balls from 14 of the 21 batters he’s faced this month, and 56.2% on the year – the highest ratio of anyone on the staff with more than 20 innings pitched.

Elimination Season Almost Ended

For all their warts, the Cardinals were the second to last team to be eliminated from playoff contention this year.  Milwaukee or Colorado will be the last.  Everyone else is already in or out.

NoteBook

With the loss, the Cardinals fall to 43-35 at home.  Of the 25 home series they have played, they have won 12, lost 10, and split the other 3.

With Milwaukee having won two of three from Cincinnati, the Cards will play no more teams this season that have either lost or split their previous series.  So the final tallies on those situations are:

St Louis finished just 37-36 against teams that had lost their previous series.  Those games averaged 3:06, and drew a total attendance of 2,563,414 (an average of 35,115.3) and were played in average temperatures of 78.5 degrees.  We went 11-10-2 in those series, sweeping 3 of the 5 we had a chance to sweep, and being swept in 3 of the 4 that we were in danger of being swept in.  We were 4-5 in rubber games against teams that had lost their previous series.

We only played 6 teams this season that had split their previous series, and we beat them up in good order, going 13-4 in those games.  Those games averaged 2:58.8 and drew a total attendance of 726,554 (an average of 42,738.5).  The average temperature of those games was 79.4 degrees.  We won 5 of the 6 series, including sweeps in 3 of 4 opportunities while avoiding the sweep in the only such series lost all season.  We won the one rubber game played in these series.

Cards Can’t Add to One Run Lead, Lose Again

In many ways, last night’s games was eerily similar to the first John Lackey game about a week and a half ago.  In that game – on Friday, September 15 – Lackey served up an early run (a first inning home run off the bat of Tommy Pham).  And there it sat.  One lonely run, sitting on the scoreboard through the fourth inning.  One run, just waiting for the Cubs to bounce back.

After the Cubs did tie the game in the fourth, St Louis came back with another run in the fifth.  And there it sat.  A one run lead, just waiting.  This time it waited a shorter period of time, till the bottom of the sixth when Chicago erupted for 7 runs that decided the contest 8-2 (box score).

Fast forward to last night.  Again, Lackey serves up the early run (this time in the second inning).  And there it sat.  One lonely run.  It sat there, un-added upon, through the third, the fourth, the fifth and the sixth.  Finally, one more big inning from the Cubs (a five-run seventh) sent the Cards to defeat 5-1 (box score).

St Louis has now scored the first run in 7 of their last 8 games, but have lost 3 of the last 4.  One reason has been a consistent inability to add to a one run lead.

Last night, from the moment they pushed ahead 1-0 until they came to the plate in the bottom of the seventh trailing 5-1, St Louis was 0 for 14.  For the month of September, St Louis is hitting just .155 when clinging to a one run lead.  Since the All-Star Break the sometimes dynamic Cardinal offense (that is averaging 4.96 runs per game over its last 70 games) is scuffling along at a .209 batting average when holding a lead of one lonely run.

Delivering that knockout blow is another of the many elements lacking in the Cardinals game as they come down the stretch.

With only 5 hits on the night, the Cardinal batting average for the month of September fades to .242.

Paul DeJong

The only Cardinal hitter that showed much of a pulse last night was rookie Paul DeJong.  He was the only Cardinal with two hits, accounting for the only Cardinal extra-base hit and the only Cardinal run batted in.  Paul has two hits in each of the last two games.

DeJong’s RBI came in the second inning, breaking a 0-0 tie.  Many of Paul’s best moments have come while the game is tied.  This month, Paul is 7 for 23 (.304) and 23 for 73 (.315) in the second half when batting in tie games.  For the season, Paul is a .311 hitter (32 for 103) and a .534 slugger (5 doubles and 6 home runs) when batting in a tie game.

Dexter Fowler

After being one of the driving forces of the offense in the second half, Dexter Fowler has run into a dry stretch.  As the Cards have suffered four damaging losses in their last five games, Fowler has been 3 for 19 (.158).  He has drawn 1 walk, scored 1 run, and driven in no runs in that span.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko was another of the Cardinal bats quieted last night – he went 0 for 3.  Jedd has been hitting quite a bit better lately – and in fact, had 5 hits in the two previous games.  But his average in a disappointing second half has faded to .224.

Gyorko led off the fourth with the Cards clinging to the one run lead.  He flew out to left.  Since the All-Star Break, Jedd is now 2 for 19 (.105) when batting with that one run lead.

Another Pitching Streak Reaches Record Levels

On Thursday, August 23, 2012 Jake Westbrook went to the mound for the Cards, facing Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros.  It would not be his best start.  He lasted 5 innings, giving 5 runs on 7 hits.  It was all enough, though, to get him a 13-5 win.

More importantly, it broke a streak of 3 straight quality starts (Jaime Garcia, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse).  And it initiated the longest stretch of games in this century without a quality start from a Cardinal pitcher.  Until last night, that is.  The 2012 streak reached 11 games in a row, until Monday September 3, when Joe Kelly pitched St Louis to a 5-4 victory against the Mets.  He gave just 2 runs over 6.2 innings.

Although Michael Wacha tossed six brilliant innings last night, the 5-run seventh denied the team not just the victory, but the streak stopping quality start.  Over the last 12 games, Cardinal starters have been saddled with a crushing 8.40 ERA.  For the month of September, the rotation has chipped in just 7 quality starts in 25 games, while registering a 4.63 ERA.  For the 70 games of the second half, the team ERA has risen to 4.03.

You will, no doubt, remember that earlier this season the Cards allowed at least five runs in 12 consecutive games.  Here, now, is a companion streak.

Michael Wacha

Of all of the Cardinal starters during this long dry spell, Wacha has been statistically the best – and that by quite a bit.  However, he still carries a 5.40 ERA and an 0-2 record over his last 3 starts.  This in spite of the fact that the batting average against has only been .246.  Over the 16.2 innings of those starts, Michael has struck out 19 and allowed just one home run (in last night’s seventh inning).

In a sense, these last three starts have been a kind of microcosm of Michael’s season.  Lots of terrific, impressive moments that somehow haven’t worked out as hoped.

All season Wacha has struggled to hold onto small leads.  In the season’s second half, Wacha has pitched 24.2 innings with a lead of less than four runs.  His ERA in those innings is 6.57 with a .300/.355/.510 batting line against.  This includes a 7.50 ERA when holding a one run lead.  For the season, in 55 innings when leading by no more than 3 runs, Wacha’s ERA is 6.38 with a .298/.355/.505 batting line against.  This includes an 8.62 ERA when pitching with a two-run lead, and a 8.10 ERA (with a .366 batting average against) when holding a three-run lead.

Matthew Bowman

For most of the season, Matthew Bowman’s specialty has been stranding runners.  Of the first 31 runners he inherited, only 5 crossed the plate.  With the one he let in last night, 10 of the last 20 have scored, including 6 of the last 11.  Bowman has been one of several Cardinals who have been given opportunities to impact these critical September games who have too often been found wanting.

Zach Duke

On the other hand, there is Zach Duke.  Off to a kind of brutal start to the season after missing spring training, Duke has been locked in of late.  Inheriting a bases-loaded jam from Bowman, Duke ended the seventh by getting Anthony Rizzo to bounce into a double play.  Duke has now stranded the last 15 base-runners that he has inherited – including three times with the bases loaded.

If the Cards are not interested in pursuing him for next year, they should be.

Sam Tuivailala

Coming into the eighth inning trailing by four runs, Sam Tuivailala delivered a clean eighth inning.  This season, Sam has pitched 25.2 innings with the Cards trailing.  His ERA is 1.05, and his batting line against is an efficient .149/.213/.184. In his 14.2 innings either tied or with his team in the lead, Sam holds a 5.52 ERA with a .344/.400/.594 batting line against.

Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil also delivered a clean inning – the ninth, in a low impact setting with a four-run deficit.  Cecil has had a forgettable season, but is doing better this month.  In 8 September games – comprising 11 innings – Cecil carries a 2.45 ERA and a .171 batting line against.  He has walked just 1 batter in those innings.

Brett has now pitched 18.1 innings this season with the Cardinals trailing by at least three runs.  In those innings, Brett has a 0.49 ERA with a .119/.143/.153 batting line against.  Cecil also has pitched 6.1 innings with the Cards leading by at least six runs.  He has given no runs and only 4 hits in those innings.

In between, with St Louis either leading by up to five runs, tied, or trailing but by no more than two runs, Cecil has a 6.25 ERA and a .333/.378/.548 batting line against in 40.1 innings.

It is possible that there is no statistic more descriptive of Brett’s season than that.

Ten Two-Out Runs Topple the Cards

As if the mental toughness gap that separates the Cardinals and the Cubs needed any more emphasis, Chicago applied another demonstration last night, scoring 10 two-out runs in a 10-2 victory (box score).  For the game, Chicago was 8 for 17 with 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 3 walks with two-outs, a .471/.550/.941 batting line.

Starting Pitching Leads the Great Collapse

Twelve games ago, everything was on the table for the Cardinals.  Coming off a 13-4 battering of Cincinnati in the first game of that series, St Louis stood 76-68, and just two games behind Chicago.  In front of them, they had two more games with Cincinnati, and then seven shots at the Cubs over their final 12 games – with six games against bottom dwellers Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in between.

They couldn’t possibly have been anymore “in it.”

But, beginning with a 6-0 loss to Cincinnati that next day, they have skidded to a 5-7 record over the first 12 games of that crucial stretch – including 4 losses in 4 games against Chicago.  And at the forefront of the tailspin is the starting rotation that we had pinned our hopes on, both for the season and for this crucial stretch.  After last night’s 3-inning, 8-run battering of Luke Weaver, St Louis has just 1 quality start in its last 12 games.  During this stretch, the rotation has pitched fewer innings than the bullpen (50.1 to 53.2), with a 7.69 ERA and a .292 batting average against.

Even after all of this, the Cards still have an outside shot at the second Wild Card.  But at some point their starting pitching will have to give them a chance.

They are much less “in it,” now

Luke Weaver

While he is the latest contributor, Weaver is probably the least responsible for the collapse in the rotation.  He owns the only quality start over the last 12 games, and could have had a second as he led 8-2 after five innings when he was relieved after his last start.  His worst game of the season interrupted a 7-game winning streak, during which he held a 1.61 ERA in 44.2 innings.

Eight of the nine batters who reached against Luke scored yesterday.

Sam Tuivailala

Since the All-Star Break, Sam Tuivailala has been experiencing more difficulties with the first out than the last.  In his seventh inning last night, he gave a leadoff single, but got a double play and a strikeout to avoid any scoring.  Over his last 19.1 innings, batters hitting with no one out are now hitting .333 (9 for 27).  They are now 4 for 23 (.174) with two outs.

Zach Duke

The damage, of course, could have been worse.  Already ahead 10-2, the Cubs had the bases loaded with – again – two out, with Anthony Rizzo at the plate in the eighth inning.  Zach Duke was summoned to put out the fire – which he did by getting a ground out.  It was one of the few times last night that Chicago didn’t get the two-out hit, but rather par for the course for Duke.

Zach has now held batters to a .211 batting average with two outs (4 for 19) this season.  He has stranded his last 11 inherited runners – including twice with the bases loaded.

Hits Still Scarce

While the starters have been creating early deficits, the offense can’t shake its general hitting slump.  With only 6 hits last night, the Cards carry a .243 team batting average for the month – including .240 over the last 12 games.

Jedd Gyorko

With Jose Martinez still battling an injury and Matt Carpenter still slumping, the three hits from Jedd Gyorko last night were a welcomed sight.  Back in the starting lineup, Gyorko is beginning to get his timing back.  Over his last 6 games (5 of them starts), Jedd is hitting .313 (5 for 16).

Jedd’s hits included a two out single in the sixth inning.  All season, Jedd has been one of our better two-out hitters.  He is now hitting .286 this year (36 for 126) with two outs.  Twenty-six of his 66 runs batted in have come with two outs.  He ranks second on the club in two-out batting average (behind only Dexter Fowler) and in two-out runs batted in (behind Yadier Molina’s 29).

Dexter Fowler

As for Fowler, he added two more hits last night, and continues to be the most consistent offensive force on the team.  He has only played in 9 of the last 12 games, but with spectacular effect, hitting .417 (15 for 36) and slugging .750 (3 doubles and 3 home runs).  He has scored 7 runs and driven in 11 in those 9 games.  Since the All-Star break, Dexter has been a .304/.414/.506 hitter.

All of Dexter’s at bats came with two out last night.  He is now 6 for his last 13 two-out at bats – accounting for 5 two-out runs batted in.  As mentioned, Dexter has been the team’s best two-out hitter this year.  He is 38 for 114 with 7 doubles, one triple, 7 home runs and 23 walks – a .333/.449/.596 batting line.  He now has 25 two-out RBIs this season.

Tommy Pham

After hitting .286 with a .429 on base percentage in the first half when batting with two outs, Tommy Pham has struggled to extend innings in the second half – and especially this month.  With his 0-for-2 in last night’s two-out at bats, Tommy is 4 for 21 (.190) this month, and 12 for 51 (.235) in the second half with two outs.  He did, however, draw a two-out walk, his eleventh since the break, keeping his on base percentage at .391 in this situation in the second half.

Paul DeJong

In the middle of the sagging offense is rookie Paul DeJong.  Heroic for much of the season, Paul is fading at the finish.  After his 0-for-3 last night, he is hitting .163 (7 for 43) over these last 12 games.  He is down to .229 (19 for 83) for the month.

During his compelling first half, Paul was uncanny when hitting with no one out – he hit .408 with a .735 slugging percentage.  After popping out to lead off the sixth, DeJong is 1 for his last 17 (an infield hit, at that) when batting with no one out.

The Cardinals had none of their leadoff hitters reach base last night.

Yadier Molina

Yadi is another of the hitters who has struggled during the 12-game downturn.  Molina has played in 11 of the games, hitting .162 (6 for 37) after his 0-for-3 last night.  Molina is now down to .233 for the month (17 for 73).

Stephen Piscotty

Given the lion’s share of the playing time in right field, Stephen Piscotty hasn’t really taken advantage.  With the team struggling for hits and runs, Piscotty has now gone 13 games without driving in a run.  He is hitting .209 (9 for 43) in those games.

Piscotty struck out to end the sixth.  With two outs, now, Stephen is 0 for his last 6, and 1 for 17 (.059) this month.  Since the All-Star Break, Stephen is hitting .156 when hitting with two outs.

Kolten Wong

And, of course, no listing of slumping Cardinal hitters would be complete without including Kolten Wong.  He was also 0 for 3 last night.  Over the last 12 games, Kolten is scuffling along at .125 (4 for 32).  In September, Wong is hitting just .170 (9 for 53).

Wong’s struggles with two outs are very similar to Piscotty’s.  After ending the second inning with a strikeout, Wong is 0 for his last 7, 1 for 13 (.077) this month, and 12 for 61 (.197) since the All-Star Break when hitting with two outs.  He is only a .212 two-out hitter for the season.

Elimination Season Draws to Its Conclusion

As the Cardinals were officially closed out of the NL Central chase, the playoff picture has begun to take definite shape.  The Cardinal’s division is one of only two left unsettled, and that by the slimmest of margins.  Milwaukee will need St Louis to win all of the remaining games in this series to have a chance.  Boston is holding off the Yankees by 4 games in the AL East.  All other division winners have been crowned (Cleveland, Houston, Washington and the Dodgers).

Minnesota will likely be the second Wild Card in the AL – after the Yankees.  A handful of teams trail them, but none closer than 5 games.  Arizona is the top Wild card in the NL.

That second NL Wild Card is the lone remaining playoff spot that will be hotly contested over the season’s last 6 days.  Currently, Colorado holds the spot, with the Brewers 1.5 games behind and, yes, the Cardinals one game behind that.

Inches Betray Cardinals as Winning Streak Ends

The inches were spectacularly against the St Louis Cardinals through the first five innings of last night’s game, where – unlike the Indians – the Cards winning streak (a modest four games) came to a sour end, 6-0 (box score).  Jesse Winker’s leadoff home run was just barely fair down the right field line.  In the bottom of the first, Yadier Molina had runners at first and third with two out, when he floated a fly ball into short right-center that had just enough carry on it to allow Winker to make an excellent catch that both saved a run and ended the inning.

Then there was the fifth inning.  Jose Peraza just barely safe at first on an infield hit.  The ground ball back to the mound that just oozed out of Jack Flaherty’s grip.  Tyler Mahle just fractionally safe at second on another infield dribbler.  Things unraveled from there.  It’s baseball.

More concerning is the fact that St Louis finished the night with only 5 hits – all singles.  The offense has been pretty consistently good at putting runs on the board (last night excepted) but the hits are becoming more scare.  Twelve games into September, and the Cards have only 94 hits.  They are still scoring 5.00 runs per game, but are hitting just .239.

Jose Martinez

Among the shards of good news from last night was 2 more hits from Jose Martinez.  Jose has now hit in 13 of his last 14 games, hitting .435 (20 for 46) during the streak.  His average is up to .356 in the second half 37 for 104).

Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham contributed a walk and a hit by pitch – so he is still getting on base.  But his is one of the batting averages that is starting to fade in September.  Pham is just 1 for 12 over his last 6 games, and is down to .158 (3 for 19) for the month – albeit with a .407 on base percentage.

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong has also seen a noticeable dip in September. A stiff back during the early days of the month didn’t help, but Wong hasn’t been really hot since getting back on the field.  He was 0 for 2 last night, and is now just 5 for 23 (.217) this month.  Like Pham, though, Wong has still been getting on base.  He drew his fifth walk of the month last night, pushing his on base percentage to .357.

Harrison Bader

Gravity may also be catching up with touted prospect Harrison Bader.  His 0-for-4 yesterday leaves him just 2 for 17 (.118) over his last 5 games.

Sam Tuivailala

At this time of year, relief innings can be a little hard to come by.  With a bullpen crowded with September call-ups, the middle relievers may have to wait for a while before their number comes up.

That is what is happening to Sam Tuivailala.  Sam has made it into only 3 of the first 12 games this month, and has had 5 days in between each of his last two games.  Rather than get rusty, though, Sam has become hyper-efficient.  He retired 3 batters last night on four pitches – all strikes.  Each batter he faced swung the bat once, and got himself out.

It’s an exceedingly small sample size – just the 11 batters he has faced this month – but 7 of those batters never saw a pitch out of the strike zone, and all 11 combined have only cost Tui 31 pitches (2.8 pitches per).  Along the way, Sam has thrown 25 of the pitches for strikes (81%!) with only one of those strikes being a swing and a miss.  On September first in San Francisco, Sam was finishing up the ninth inning of an 11-6 Cardinal win.  With two-out, Brandon Crawford swung through Tuivailala’s 1-1 pitch.  He ended the game by grounding out on the next pitch.

It’s too few batters and too few pitches to mean anything, but this is pitching to contact on steroids.

Matthew Bowman

Matthew Bowman is another arm that seems to be profiting from extra rest in September.  Having pitched in 65 games through the end of August, Bowman looked a little frayed.  He has been better of late.  He is unscored on over his last six games (4.2 innings), during which he has allowed just one hit.  He has had at least four days of rest in between 3 of the 6 games.

Cards Overcome Another Early Deficit

As Jack Flaherty walked off the mound after his second major league inning, his team trailed 3-0.  After fellow rookie Harrison Bader put the Cards back in the game with a two-run homer, Flaherty gave those runs back in the bottom of the third, and St Louis still trailed by three.

All that was left for the offense to do was to keep battling back.

By game’s end the resilient Cardinal offense overcame yet another spotty pitching performance as they exploded for 6 in the ninth, and cruised past San Francisco 11-6 (box score).

It’s a position this team has found itself in frequently this season, so it should surprise no one that the hitters are almost comfortable in the situation.  Last night, the 27 batters that came to the plate with the team trailing hit a combined .360 (9 for 25) and slugged .840 (3 triples and 2 home runs).  They are just coming off a month (August) where they trailed in nearly 40% of their plate appearances, yet hit .291/.365/.497 when they trailed – especially when they trailed by three runs.

What, exactly, is magic about a three-run deficit I can’t really say, but over the course of the year – and especially in the second half – seeing that three-run deficit lights a fuse in the Cardinal offense.  Last month they hit .397/.471/.712 in 86 plate appearances trailing by three runs.  Since the All-Star Break, in 106 plate appearances, that line is .370/.438/.696.  For the season, 254 Cardinal hitters have stood at the plate facing a three-run deficit.  They are hitting .316/.379/.600.

Fifteen times this year St Louis has trailed by three runs in a game – but by no more than three runs.  They lost all of the first nine of those games.  They have now won 5 of the last 6.

The 11 runs on 15 hits suggests that this team didn’t do all their hitting and scoring in August – where they hit .280 and scored 5.79 runs per game.  In the season’s second half, the Cards are scoring 5.22 runs per game with a .276 team batting average.

Stephen Piscotty

Not all of their numbers are robust, but every day manager Mike Matheny is tasked with choosing which three of his five impact outfield bats (and maybe six, now, if you count Bader) to put in the lineup.  Last night Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler and Jose Martinez all sat, while Bader, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty all starred – to some degree or other – in the Cardinal victory.

Perhaps the most impressive of the three was Piscotty – who has been a little bit buried on the bench lately.  He had three hits, including a home run and a triple that was almost a home run – with those last two hits capping excellent at bats.

On the triple that began the comeback from the three-run deficit, Piscotty took all of the first three pitches from Hunter Strickland – finding himself backed up in the count 1-2.  He then fouled off five consecutive pitches before finally launching Strickland’s ninth pitch off the padding on the top of the right-center field wall.

On the home run, Piscotty turned on a 2-2 fastball that Albert Suarez ran right in under his fists.  Both the discipline that Stephen showed against Strickland and the surprising quickness he showed against Suarez are difficult to maintain when you’re not getting regular at bats.

Since his recall from Memphis, Piscotty has only gotten into 10 games – 7 as a starter.  He is nonetheless hitting .357 (10 for 28) and slugging .643 (one triple and 2 home runs) in those opportunities.

Piscotty also began the game-tying eighth inning rally with a single to left.  The Cardinals were trailing 5-4 at the time.  Piscotty for the season is a .324 hitter (11 for 34) when he bats with his team trailing by one run.

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong picked up in September where he left off in August.  After hitting .347 last month, Wong tacked on two more hits last night.  He is hitting .308 for the season, and .316 (48 for 152) in the second half.

Wong’s RBI single in the ninth was his fifth game-winning hit of the year, tying him with Paul DeJong for fourth highest on the team.  Dexter Fowler and Jedd Gyorko are tied for the team lead with 9 each, followed by Yadier Molina with 8.

Kolten’s other hit came with two outs in the third with the Cards still down, 3-0.  It put him on base for Bader’s home run.  No one on the team has responded to that three-run deficit like Kolten Wong.  His 1-for-2 last night when trailing by three follows on the heels of his 5-for-8 August in that situation.  Since the All-Star Break, Kolten is 6 for 11 (.545) when trailing by three, and for the year he is 10 for 16 (.625) when staring at a three-run deficit.

Paul DeJong

Paul DeJong never stays down for very long.  After his most recent six-game hitting streak, DeJong went hitless in his last two games.  But DeJong (who finished August hitting .297 with a .508 slugging percentage and a team leading 20 runs batted in in 27 games), began September with two hits – including a double – and two runs batted in.  Paul has driven in a team-leading 34 runs in 45 games since the All-Star Break, while hitting .280 (53 for 189) and slugging .513 (9 doubles, a triple, and a team-leading 11 home runs).

His two-run, ninth inning double was typical of so many big hits that DeJong has gotten this year – the hit that breaks open the game.  This one turned a 6-5 Cardinal lead into an 8-5 lead.  For the season, when St Louis is either even in the game, or ahead by fewer than 4 runs, DeJong is hitting .356 (57 for 160) and slugging .619 (15 doubles and 9 home runs).  He has driven in 30 runs in those at bats.

Yadier Molina

He still looks stiff when he runs – like he hasn’t fully recovered from that abdominal strain, but Molina still plays every day.  And he hits.  A single and a triple last night (yes, he ran OK on that one), bring his current hitting streak to 5 games, during which Molina is hitting .333 (7 for 21). But this is part of an even longer stretch where Molina has hit safely in 12 of 13 games, going 18 for 52 (.346) during the streak.

Yadi ended August with a .312 average for the month – and showed surprising power.  He hit 5 home runs and slugged .548.  For the second straight season, Yadi has turned it up a notch or two after the break.  He is now hitting .305 (46 for 151) in the season’s second half.

Yadi tried to spark an earlier rally with a one-out triple in the fourth (the Cards still trailing 5-2 at the time).  That didn’t pan out, but it did bring Yadi’s average to .478 (11 for 23) on the season when he bats with a three-run deficit.

Matt Carpenter

The lineup shuffle that placed Kolten Wong in the leadoff spot dropped Matt Carpenter down to clean-up.  While it may have helped the lineup in general, it didn’t pay any immediate benefits to Carpenter.  Matt’s 0-for-4 followed tightly on the heels of his .202 August, and drops him now to just .158 (9 for 57) over his last 15 games.  Carpenter – who is hitting .241 for the year – is back down to .248 (38 for 153) in the second half – albeit still with a .372 on base percentage.

Carpenter’s evening included going 0 for 3 during the portion of the game where the Cardinals trailed.  Especially during the second half of the season, Carpenter has struggled to contribute hits when the Cardinals have trailed in games.  And especially when the deficit is three runs or less.  In his last 51 plate appearances with St Louis down by no more than 3 runs, Matt owns a .158 batting average (6 for 38).  He does still contribute walks, though, as his on base percentage in those plate appearances is a still healthy .373.

Pitching in Close Quarters

When Flaherty surrendered the lead in the second inning, he continued a problematic trend that has kept the Cardinals and their suddenly prolific offense from being serious contenders.  Through the month of August the Cardinal pitching staff pitched 69.2 innings with the game either tied or holding a one-run lead.  They responded to those opportunities with a 6.85 ERA and a .325 batting average against.  In 137.1 such innings since the All-Star Break, Cardinal pitchers have managed just a 5.77 ERA with a .292 batting average against.  Brandon Crawford’s two-run homer in last night’s second inning was the twenty-seventh home run the Cardinals have given up since the All-Star Break in games they were either tied in or leading by one run.

This is not exactly a formula for success – even if you have a competitive offense.

In August, the team received only 13 quality starts in 28 games, finishing with a 4.62 ERA (4.81 by the starters, with a .297 batting average against).  Since the All-Star Break, the team ERA is hovering at 4.06.

Tyler Lyons

Tyler Lyons is fast approaching super-hero status.  Last night’s perfect eighth inning that included two more strikeouts brings his scoreless streak to 20 games and 18.2 innings, during which he has allowed just 3 hits while striking out 25.

Sam Tuivailala

Sam Tuivailala gave the last run of the game in a mop-up ninth inning.  Though his season’s ERA is still a fine 2.97, Sam has begun to take on water recently.  He has now allowed runs in 3 of his last 5 games, giving 4 total runs in 4 total innings.  His ERA sits at 4.05 in the second half (13.1 innings).

Some of this just might be due to Sam’s unfamiliarity with pitching with a lead.  Since the All-Star Break, last night was only Sam’s second inning pitching with a lead – as opposed to 11 innings pitched while trailing in the game.  Of the 58 batters he’s faced in the second half, he has pitched to 2 with the score tied, 11 with the Cardinals leading, and 43 while trailing in the game.

For the season, Tuivailala has an 0.92 ERA with a .132 batting average against in 19.2 innings while trailing, 9.00 with a .353 batting average against in 4 innings while tied, and 4.66 allowing a .349 batting average in just 9.2 innings with a lead.

First Out Proves Illusive Against Tampa Bay

There was no one out when Logan Morrison came to the plate in a scoreless tie in the fourth inning.  There was still no one out when Morrison turned on Lance Lynn’s first pitch of the inning and crept it over the right-center field wall.

Likewise, there was no one out when Brad Miller led off the seventh.  It was still a 1-0 game at that point.  There was still no one out three pitches later when Miller lofted a fly ball just over the center field wall.

Those were the highlights, but Lynn also gave up no-out hits to Kevin Kiermaier in the first, Corey Dickerson in the second, and pitcher Chris Archer in the third.  In all, Tampa Bay was 5 for 12 (.417) with the two home runs (.917 slugging percentage) against Lance while there was no one out in the inning.  After Lance managed to secure that first out, the succeeding batters to face him were just 1 for 13.

This has become a curious pattern lately.  As a 2-6 streak has pushed the Cards down into the middle of their division, the pitching staff – among other shortcomings – has had inexplicable difficulties getting that first out of an inning.  Over these last 8 games, batters hitting with no one out are a surprising 41 for 108 (.380) with 5 home runs and a .583 slugging percentage.  Once the first out is finally recorded, the subsequent batters in the inning are hitting .210 (37 for 176).  For the month, now, batters facing the Cardinals with no one out are hitting .309 (95 for 307).

The Rays finished up their series in St Louis hitting 3 home runs in back-to-back games.  Cardinal pitchers have now served up 14 home runs over the last 8 games.

Lance Lynn

Lance gave up the home runs – his twenty-third and twenty-fourth of the year – but, once again, pitched a fine game.  The home runs were the only runs allowed in his 7 innings, during which he allowed just 6 hits and struck out 8.  For Lynn, it was his fourth quality start in his 5 August games.  His ERA this month lowers to 2.90, but his record is only 1-0 as his offense has failed to score more than 4 runs in any of his starts, and his bullpen served up the lead in one of the games that he did get four runs.

Lance has made 9 starts in the season’s second half, giving us 8 quality starts, a 3-0 record and a 2.28 ERA.

Seung-hwan Oh

One thing is clear.  Manager Mike Matheny no longer trusts one-time closer Seung-hwan Oh to face left-handed batters.  After seven strong innings from Lance Lynn, Oh went to the mound to begin the eighth.  He threw 6 pitches to the two right-handed batters that opened the inning – Steven Souza who singled (another no-out hit), and Evan Longoria who flew to left.  He then surrendered the mound when lefty Morrison came up.

What is less clear is where Oh fits into the bullpen picture.  This was only his second game in the last 8.  Since he was removed from the closer’s role, Seung-hwan hasn’t really been dominant (allowing a .302 batting average), but he has been solid with a 2.77 ERA (albeit in just 13 innings).

Oh right now is one of those puzzle pieces that doesn’t yet seem to have a fit.

The no-out hit against Oh was not an isolated incident.  Since the All-Star Break, batters are hitting .350 against him (14 for 40) with less than two outs.  Over the course of the season, batters are hitting .320 (49 for 153) against Seung-hwan when there are less than two outs.  Once Oh gets that second out, however, the batting average against him drops to .212 (14 for 66).

John Brebbia

John Brebbia bent but didn’t break.  Two walks and a hit batter complicated his four-out stint, but he kept Tampa Bay off the scoreboard.  In 19.2 innings in the season’s second half, John carries a 2.29 ERA.  He has occasional stumbles, but has been much more good than bad.

Sam Tuivailala

Blinking last was Cardinal reliever Sam Tuivailala.  He served up Morrison’s second home run in the tenth inning, enduring the 3-2 loss (box score).  Even with the home run and the loss, Sam’s ERA is a solid 2.87.  However, pitching in 3 of the last 4 games, Sam has served up the winning runs in two of them.  In 10.1 August innings, his ERA slides to 4.35 with 2 home runs allowed.

Offense Slowing Down

St Louis finished the game with 9 more hits, but only 2 runs.  After a torrid offensive stretch earlier in the month, the Cards are starting to struggle to convert their hits into runs.  Over the recent eight –game fade, the Cards are still hitting a very respectable .261.  But they have scored just 31 runs (3.88 per game).

Greg Garcia

The recent injury to Jedd Gyorko has provided opportunity for super utility player Greg Garcia.  His three hits last night provided the Cardinals’ only consistent offensive presence.  Garcia is a player who can get and stay hot for a while.  Over his last 8 games, Greg is 8 for 19 (.421).  He is hitting .333 this month (14 for 42) with a .451 on base percentage.  Greg is also at .333 (19 for 57) since the All-Star Break.

Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty didn’t advance his case for more playing time last night, his 0-for-4 including 3 strikeouts.  Stephen returned from his sojourn in Memphis with 4 hits in his first two games back.  In five games since then, Piscotty has managed 2 singles in 15 at bats (.133).  He drops to .231 (9 for 39) for the month.  In the season’s second half, Stephen carries a .209 batting average (9 for 43) with just 1 run batted in.

NoteBook

St Louis has now lost 5 of its last 6 rubber games.  For the season, they are now 4-5 in rubber games played at Busch.

Game Hinges on Second Inning RISP Chances

The game was still scoreless as San Francisco immediately put Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright in a second-inning bind.  A single by Brandon Belt and a walk to Brandon Crawford gave the Giants the very first RISP (runners in scoring position) opportunity of the day.  The Cards would get the same opportunity in the bottom of that inning when Jhonny Peralta and Tommy Pham led off with singles.  But where the Cards would cash in on the chance – eventually getting a three-run double from Randal Grichuk as the highlight of a four-run inning, the Giants were left with a zero for their efforts as Wainwright defused the threat by striking out Eduardo Nunez, Nick Hundley and Mac Williamson.

With this as the tone setter, St Louis would go on to a 4-for-10 RISP performance while San Francisco would finish the afternoon 0-for-8 in that same category, resulting in an 8-3 Cardinal victory (box score).

The Cardinals have had a reputation is recent years of being one of the better hitting teams with runners in scoring position.  Even though last year was mostly disappointing, they still hit .271/.353/.472 with RISP.  They dug themselves an early season hole in 2017 for many reasons, among them an ice-cold start in these opportunities.  Their April RISP batting line read a disappointing .212/.325/.358.  But they have come out firing on many more cylinders in May.  After their performance yesterday, the May RISP line now stands at .276/.349/.436.

Pitching Staff Thriving with RISP

One of the earmarks of the superlative 2015 staff was their remarkable success when pitching with runners in scoring position (.210/.296/.322).  While they regressed a bit last year (.259/.341/.404), they have bounced back with a vengeance so far in 2017.  After holding the Giants to an 0-for-8 RISP performance, St Louis’ opponents are hitting .204 this month – and .219 for the year – with runners in scoring position.

Hitters Don’t Stay Down for Long

Yesterday also featured another bounce-back by the Cardinal offense.  Dominated the night before (scoring just once in 13 innings), St Louis drove Matt Cain from the mound under a barrage of hits.  For the first 15 games of the season, the Cardinal offense sat in a deep freeze, scoring 3.2 runs a game and being shutout twice.  In the 26 games since then (beginning with the series in Milwaukee that started on April 20), the Cards have hit .287 as a team and scored 5.52 runs per game.  For the 17 games they’ve played so far in May, those numbers are .275 and 5.12 runs per game.  They have scored five runs or more 11 times (in 17 games) this month, and 18 times in the last 26 games.

Jhonny Peralta

Peralta has returned with a little juice in his bat.  With pinch-hit singles in his first two games and a 2-for-3 game yesterday, Jhonny is 4 for 5 with a walk and no strikeouts since his re-instatement.  There is still a question of where he fits, as benching Jedd Gyorko in favor of Peralta is – for the moment, anyway – out of the question.  Peralta is still waiting for his first extra base hit and his first run batted in of the season.

Aledmys Diaz

Aledmys Diaz – who pushed his season average to .261 with two doubles – now has 14 multiple hit games this season.  He has had only 10 games in which he has had one hit.  Even though he has been pretty hit and miss, Aledmys is still hitting .315 (23 for 73) this month.

Diaz was one of our very best hitters with runners in scoring position last year.  He hit .337/.427/.652 in those situations in 2016.  To this point of 2017, he has struggled to find that RISP magic.  The only time they retired him yesterday was on a soft fly ball to left with runners on first and second and two out in the third.  Aledmys is now just 8 for 35 (.229) with runners in scoring position in 2017.  Of the 8 hits, 6 are singles (including one infield hit and one bunt single), 1 double and 1 home run – a .343 slugging percentage.

Randal Grichuk

Both of Grichuk’s doubles came with runners in scoring position.  Beginning with the Milwaukee series at the end of April, Grichuk’s production with runners in scoring position has been on the upswing.  Randal finished 2016 with one of the team’s better averages with runners in scoring position, when he hit .327 and slugged .579 when hitting with “ducks on the pond.” He began 2017 with just 3 hits in his first 13 RISP at bats (.231).  Since then he is 8 for 29 (.276) with 5 of the hits going for extra-base – a .517 slugging percentage.

Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler was the only Cardinal player to bat last night who didn’t finish the game with at least one hit.  Since hitting a triple and a late three-run homer in the first San Francisco game, Dexter is 0 for 11, watching his season average tilt back down to .220.

He is hitting just .154 (4 for 26) since returning to the lineup after his shoulder injury.  However, all 4 hits have been for extra bases, and he has sprinkled in 8 walks for a .343 on base percentage and a .500 slugging percentage since then.  His batting line for May (.184/.347/.526) shows a similar trend.  He has only 7 hits in 38 at bats this month, but with 6 extra-base hits (including 2 home runs) and 10 walks.

Adam Wainwright

The resurgent Adam Wainwright was also a big story last night.  Seven starts into his 2017 season, Adam had no quality starts, a 2-3 record, and a 6.37 ERA.  After limiting the Giants to 1 run in 6.1 innings yesterday, Adam has now allowed just that single run on 9 hits in 13.1 innings over his last two starts (wins over the Giants and Cubs) – a 0.68 ERA.  One particular area of improvement has been the bite on Adam’s curveball – making it a swing-and-miss pitch again.  Through the first seven starts, opposing batters only missed on 16% of their swings against him.  Over the last two games, the swing-and-miss percentage has been 26%.

During the month of April, Adam was mostly helpless when working with runners on base.  The 34 batters who faced him that month with RISP opportunities stung him at a .379/.438/.655 clip.  But San Francisco went 0-for-6 against Waino yesterday in RISP situations.  Opposing hitters are now just 3 for 19 (.158) this month in this situation.

Wainwright’s start continues an impressive month by the Cardinal rotation, which now has 12 quality starts, a 2.87 ERA, and a .214 batting average against in 17 games and 106.2 innings this month.  The overall team ERA for May is 2.91.

The Cardinals’ chances of contending over the entire season rest heavily on the pitching staff.  This sustained excellence in May is very encouraging.

RISP and the Rest of the Rotation

Lance Lynn, of course, was part of that productive 2015 staff – and he was one of many to perform very well with runners in scoring position (a .233 batting average against).  This year – so far – no one on the staff has been better.  Opposing batters are just 2 for 16 this month (.125) and 5 for 33 (.152) for the year when facing Lance with runners in scoring position.

Carlos Martinez was the best of the 2015 staff in this situation.  Combining his electric stuff and his native competitiveness, batters in RISP struggled to a .181 average against Carlos in 2015.  He regressed a bit last year, in what seems to have been a “growing” year for him.  In these situations in 2016 he was hit at a .244 clip.  The Carlos Martinez of 2017, so far, resembles much more the 2015 Martinez.  RISP batters are 2 for 12 (.167) this month, and 7 for 40 (.175) for the year against Carlos.

As with many other things in Mike Leake’s world, hitters with runners in scoring position thrived against him last year (.298), but have found the sledding much tougher this year.  They are 2 for 10 (.200) this month, and 6 for 38 (.158) this year against him.

2015 was also Michael Wacha’s last healthy year.  He was plenty tough in RISP situations then (.208), but declined in his injury-marred 2016 year (.297).  As with most of the rest of the staff, Wacha has returned to form so far this year.  With runners in scoring position, opposing batters are just 4 for 28 (.143) against him.

Miguel Socolovich

The trends on Miguel Socolovich are something of a mixed bag.  Through his first 7 games (accounting for 9.2 innings) Miguel served up no home runs.  The two he served up yesterday were the third and fourth in his last 6 games (7.2) innings.  On the other hand, over the 10.1 innings of his first 8 games, Miguel walked 4 batters.  He hasn’t walked anyone since (5 games, 7 innings).

Brett Cecil & Sam Tuivailala

Bonus good news from yesterday: two recently struggling relievers both regained a little balance.  Brett Cecil, who has had more than his share of turmoil recently, retired both batters he faced.

Sam Tuivailala pitched the ninth inning in 1-2-3 fashion, putting an end to a three game streak in which Sam gave up a run in each game.  Since his recall, Tuivailala has pitched 8 pretty good innings (3 runs on 7 hits and no home runs.)

NoteBook

Cardinal starters hove now strung together 4 consecutive quality starts (finally winning one of them), and have quality starts in 7 of the last 8 games.  Lance Lynn – who opens the LA series – is the only Cardinal starter not to throw a quality start in the last nine games.

With his RBI double yesterday, Wainwright is now hitting .294/.294/.529 for the season – an OPS of .824 (yes, I know it’s just 17 at bats).

The strikeout prone Cardinals fanned just once yesterday.  Twice previously they had struck out just twice in a game.  On 13 other occasions in their first 41 games, the Cards have recorded 10 or more strikeouts.

Unknown Lefties Still a Mystery

It doesn’t seem to me that other teams struggle that much against pitchers that they don’t know very well.  Perhaps the first time through the order, but thereafter most teams seems to adjust.  And when that unknown pitcher is a lefthander, well, even after all these years and with a handful of very talented right-handed hitters in the lineup, lefties are still mostly a mystery to this team.

Take nothing away from Eduardo Rodriguez – who is a quality pitcher – but last night’s 6-3 loss to Rodriguez and the Red Sox (box score) could have been a replay of any of a number of dominating performances by various left-handers at the expense of the Cardinals over the years.

The early returns this year aren’t encouraging, either.  After going 5 for 22 (.227) against Rodriguez and lefty reliever Robby Scott, the Cards are now hitting .240 this season against left-handed pitching.

Tommy Pham

Since it’s never too early to mention things like this, Tommy Pham, batting second last night, was 0 for 3.  He is now 1 for 11 in his three starts hitting second.  Toss in an 0-for-3 in a start where he batted sixth, and Pham is 1 for 14 (.071 batting average and slugging percentage) when he bats higher than seventh.  In his 6 starts hitting seventh or eighth, Tommy is 12 for 24 (.500) with 4 doubles, 3 home runs, and 8 runs batted in (a 1.042 slugging percentage).

Randal Grichuk

After getting three hits Sunday afternoon against the Cubs, Randal Grichuk suffered through another 0 for 3 last night.  His average for the year is back down to .241, and his average for the month of May is right there, too, at .240 (12 for 50).  He has 1 home run, 3 runs batted in, and 15 strikeouts for the month, so far.

One of the most encouraging parts of Grichuk’s promising second half last year was his proficiency at hitting lefthanders.  From the All-Star Break through the end of the season, Randal was 17 for 50 (.340), with the hits including 7 doubles and 5 home runs (.780 slugging percentage) against left-handed pitching.

To this point of 2017, that punch against lefties has been absent.  With his 0 for 3 last night, Grichuk is now 3 for 22 (.136) against lefties so far his season.

Pitchers Struggle Some Against Lefties As Well

Although Boston’s left-handed hitters didn’t have the success that most lefties have had against Cardinal pitching this year (they are hitting .274/.368/.452 against us), the pitching staff did continue its trend of thriving against right-handed hitters.  Boston’s righties managed only 4 hits in 21 at bats (albeit one of those hits was a home run).  For the season, right-handers manage just a .226/.280/.359 batting line against the Cardinal pitching staff.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn served up two home runs for the second straight start and now has three multiple home run games this season.  It has been about the only blot on an otherwise impressive season that has seen Lance reach 4-2 on the season with a 2.78 ERA and a .205 opponents’ batting average.  The home runs bring Lance’s total to 8 allowed so far this year in 45.1 innings.  His career high is the 16 he allowed in 176 innings in 2012.

Jackie Bradley’s second-inning home run was the third home run this month and the sixth home run this year that Lance has given up to left-handed hitters.  He also walked one lefty and hit another.  For the season, left-handers have troubled Lance to the tune of a .566 slugging percentage and a .393 on base percentage.  Over his three starts in May, those numbers are .680 and .438.

Right-handed batters have been another story.  The righties in the Red Sox lineup were only 2 for 14 against Lynn (.143).  Over his three starts in May, he is holding right-handed batters to a .147 average (5 for 34) and to a .133 average (12 for 90) on the season.  Prior to Mookie Betts’ leadoff home run, Jayson Werth’s fourth-inning home run against Lance on April 11 in Washington was not only the only right-handed home run he had served up this year, but the only right-handed run batted in against Lance this season.

Jonathan Broxton

Jonathan Broxton pitched the seventh inning and gave up a hit.  Over his last 7 appearances – totaling 6.1 innings – Broxton has allowed 11 baserunners (3 walks to go with the now 8 hits).  None of them have scored.  In addition, Broxton has stranded his last two inherited runners.

Bradley’s leadoff single to left makes left-handed hitters 9 for 18 (.500) against Broxton so far this season.

That being said, Broxton hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit to anyone (right or left) since Milwaukee’s Manny Pina homered off him in the ninth-inning of their April 23 game.  That was 29 batters ago.

Sam Tuivailala

Sam Tuivailala was charged with his first run allowed since his return from Memphis.  In Sam’s two previous games, all seven batters who put the ball in play against him hit the ball on the ground.  Last night, the only two he faced both hit it in the air.

Sam has had issues with walking batters in his few innings this season, but that has only been a problem when facing lefthanders.  He has walked 3 of the 10 lefties he’s faced, while walking only 1 of the 20 right-handers who have been up against him.

Brett Cecil

Troubles continue for Brett Cecil who came on the eighth inning of a one-run game with a runner at first and one out.  He proceeded to walk the only two batters he faced (both lefthanders) to set up the final two runs of the game.  Although the run charged to him was ultimately unearned, the outing marked the fifth consecutive game that Brett has allowed a run.

The 26 batters Brett has faced in his 7 games this month are slashing .476/.538/.857 against him.  Eighteen of the 26 have been left-handed batters.  Their slash line against him has been .538/.611/1.154.  For the season 36 left-handed batters have taken their chances against Cecil, and have done OK against him (OK in this context translates into a .464/.528/.929 batting line).

I do think that Brett will figure things out eventually.  He’s had a long track record of getting lefties out.  But I repeat my concern about continuing to bring him into critical junctions of close games while he’s struggling.

Miguel Socolovich

Miguel Socolovich – who inherited the bases-loaded, one-out jam in the eighth inning last night did as well as could be expected.  He allowed one run on a fly ball and should have had the last out of the inning on the fly that Pham dropped.  After a shaky April, Socolovich has allowed only 3 hits in his 6 innings this month.  He has pitched more than one inning 5 times in his 12 games this season – including his last two.

Like Tuivailala, Socolovich throws strikes to right-handed batters.  Of the 30 lefties he’s faced so far, Miguel has walked 2 and hit 2.  He has walked only 2 of the 41 right-handed batters he’s faced (hitting none).