Tag Archives: Washington Redskins

Carson Wentz and His Monday Night Party

As the Washington Redskins took the field last Monday Night, their defense was something of a puzzle.  They had surrendered 113 points through 5 games (22.6 per), holding only one opponent under 20 points.  Yet, they had the eighth-ranked run defense in the league, allowing only 88 yards per game, with only Kansas City rushing for more than 97 yards against them.  Meanwhile, opposing quarterbacks held only an 81.8 passer rating against this defense.  They had not – and still have not – allowed more than 298 net passing yards in any game.  The Skins were dropping the quarterback on 7.7% of the passing attempts against them.  Through the season’s first 5 games, they had allowed only 10 offensive touchdowns to be scored against them (they have also seen two fumbles returned for touchdowns against them).

So – in spite of the points they had allowed – this was a pretty accomplished defense.

Moreover, even though they allowed 30 points to Philly in the season opener, they did some very good things defensively.  They allowed the Eagles just 58 rushing yards (only 2.4 yards per rush).  They limited the potent Eagle offense to just 2 touchdowns.  Philadelphia was forced to kick 3 field goals and added a defensive score in the win.

Game-Planning Wentz and the Eagles

In that first game, the Redskin defense briefly lost track of receiver Nelson Agholor when quarterback Carson Wentz looked like he had been sacked.  But Carson made one of his miracle escapes and lofted a prayer up the seam that Agholor pulled in for a 58-yard touchdown.  Other than that play, the Eagle receivers didn’t really hurt Washington.  Nelson caught 5 other passes that afternoon, but for only 28 more yards.  Alshon Jeffery – the other primary target – finished with just 3 catches for 38 yards.

So the plan coming in was to play aggressive man coverage with one deep safety (Montae Nicholson).  They would challenge those receivers to win their matchups, chase Wentz around with a generous sprinkling of blitzes, and assign a spy (yes, Carson Wentz is a dangerous enough runner that Washington assigned him a spy – usually linebacker Mason Foster), and take their chances at stopping the running game again.

For 26 minutes and 31 seconds on Monday night, the Redskin defensive plan worked like a charm.  Through their first 25 offensive snaps, Philadelphia had run the ball 11 times for 42 yards (15 of them from Wentz himself), and had been flagged for 3 penalties, costing them 23 yards.  Of Wentz’ first 11 drop backs, only 3 passes were completed for just 30 yards.  One other throw had been intercepted, and 3 other attempts had ended in sacks of the quarterback (giving back 24 of the yards).  With halftime creeping up, the Eagles had scored 3 points while moving the ball just 25 yards in a positive direction (once the penalties were weighed into the equation).

For their part, cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar, Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland – hardly household names – held up excellently in coverage.  While, on the Philadelphia sideline, the Eagles had unwittingly played into Washington’s hands.

Philadelphia and the Running Game

Since that first game, Philadelphia had re-invested in the run.  In the five games since, they had totaled at least 101 rushing yards in each game, including the 214 they racked up against the Chargers in Week 4.  The Eagles came into the game ranked fifth in the NFL in running the ball (132.5 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry), and they intended to run against Washington.

In Week One, tight end Zach Ertz caught all 8 passes thrown to him as Washington simply could not cover him.  As the Week Seven game began, Ertz was watching from the sidelines as blocking tight end Brent Celek saw most of the action.  With about three minutes left in the first half, Ertz had not even had a pass thrown his way.  Everything was working out as well as Washington could have hoped.

But Then

Of course – even if man coverage is the game plan – you can’t only play man coverage.  Sometimes you have to drop into a zone.  With the Eagles facing second-and-16 on their own 36 with just 3:29 left before the half, Washington dropped into a zone.  Carson Wentz exploited it.

Alshon Jeffrey lined up to the right behind speedy rookie Mack Hollins.  Both attacked vertically up the seam for about 15 yards, when Jeffery broke his pattern to the sideline.  When cornerback Breeland bit on Jeffrey’s out-route, it left safety D.J. Swearinger all alone with Hollins.  Wentz hit Hollins in stride, sending the rookie on to his first career touchdown, igniting Philadelphia’s turnaround, and beginning what would be a nightmare second half for Swearinger.  All of a sudden, a game that Washington was in control of was tied at 10, and Philadelphia was beginning to reconsider its approach.

Before the half would end, Ertz would catch both passes thrown to him for 50 yards and a touchdown.  By game’s end, Ertz had caught all 5 passes thrown his way for 89 yards.  In the two games played against Washington this season, Zach Ertz caught all 13 passes thrown his way for 182 yards.  Most of the damage came with Swearinger trying to chase him down, but he also proved too much for Foster in the odd times that Mason tried to cover him.

Washington came in with a great plan with one tiny flaw.  No one on their team can cover Ertz.  In watching the tape, I actually think he was open every time he went out for a pass.

As to Wentz, all through his 3 for 8 start I don’t think he was ever confused by what he saw.  The initial trouble was getting a receiver open.  Throughout the entire game, Wentz seemed ready for whatever the Washington pass defense showed him.  Carson is a toolsy quarterback, but his understanding of the passing game is quite advanced for a second year guy.

Signature Moments

The rest of the game would serve as notice for anyone in the football world who hadn’t yet heard of him that Carson Wentz is a force to be reckoned with.  He finished the game with a 126.3 passer rating and 4 touchdown passes – beating every coverage Washington threw at him.  He also memorably scrambled for 63 yards, leading the Eagles to their 34-24 victory (gamebook).  The win included a signature play in both the passing and running aspects of Carson’s play – calling cards to remember him by, as it were.

The Pass

There is 9:49 left in the third – Eagles now ahead 17-10.  They face third-and-goal at the 9 yard line.  Washington defensive end Terrell McClain almost makes a game saving play.  Bull-rushing his way past center Jason Kelce, McClain has Wentz in his grasp.  Almost.  Once again, Carson twists out of the way.  With Matthew Ioannidis and Mason Foster sandwiching him in, Wentz manages to flip the ball over the head of Foster with just enough juice to get it up the sideline in the end zone where Corey Clement gathered it in.

Linebacker Zach Brown’s adventure on that play more-or-less epitomized the night for Washington.  Clearly expected to cover Clement on the play, Brown blitzed immediately.  It was as Clement and Brown passed each other going in opposite directions, that Zach realized his error.  He pivoted quickly and began pursuit of Corey, but that only earned him the best view in the house of Clement’s touchdown.

The Scramble

Now it’s the fourth quarter.  There is 14:55 left, and Washington has fought back to make it a 24-17 game.  The Eagles are on their own 27, facing a third-and-8.

Washington blitzes.  As they did almost all night, the disciplined Eagle line picked-up the blitz, but gave ground as they did so, resulting in the Washington pass rush completely encircling Wentz.  For nearly two seconds, it seemed inevitable that Carson would be discovered at the bottom of a very large pile of bodies.  But then – somewhat miraculously – Wentz shot out of the cluster of humanity and sprinted 17 yards to the 44 for a back-breaking first down.  Moments later, Agholor would weave his way through another broken zone defense to haul in the clinching touchdown.

A funny thing about that moment.  While escape looked impossible, Wentz was never in any real danger.  All of his offensive linemen were there in between him and the Redskins.  They weren’t all standing, and in some cases they were just barely between, but I think the only hand laid on Carson during that whole progression was from Zach Brown (again) who reached over running back Wendell Smallwood and managed to put a hand on Wentz’ back.  In essence, his line formed a kind of cocoon around their franchise quarterback – from which Carson exploded at the first glint of daylight.

Love for a Lineman

Nothing in football happens in a vacuum, and all success on the gridiron is team success.  There were many names trumpeted as heroes of this contest – and there were many who played extremely well.  One name that probably won’t get any mentions is right tackle Lane Johnson.  He spent most of the afternoon lined up against Washington’s best pass rusher – two time Pro Bowler Ryan Kerrigan, who recorded 11 sacks last year – and made him disappear.  Kerrigan did get a half sack in the first quarter.  On that play, Ryan lined up over left guard Steve Wisniewski and slipped around him to get to Wentz.  As far as I remember, that was the only time that Kerrigan lined up inside.  He spent the rest of the game outside, trying (unsuccessfully) to work his way around Johnson.

Tapping the Brakes

It was a magical night for Carson Wentz and the (now) 6-1 Eagles.  But before we start reserving his spot in Canton and marking the Eagles down for home-field advantage, let’s hold on to a little perspective.  Carson has played 23 impressive games as a pro, and you can see why the organization is optimistic for the future.  But it is just 23 games.  Carson has yet to play a meaningful December game, much yet a playoff game.  It’s an auspicious start, but it’s just a start.

As for the Eagles, 6-1 is an excellent start.  But six wins won’t get you anywhere.  The most challenging part of the season lies ahead.

Remember, the NFL is still a week-to-week league – even for Carson Wentz and the juggernaut Eagles.

One Game More to Decide Playoff Teams

With surprising victories by Miami and Jacksonville, much of the drama that might have hung over Week 17 has been resolved.  We go into the last week of the season with the playoff teams mostly decided – if not yet seeded.  Here – essentially – is what is still to be decided:

AFC Eastern Division

New England (13-2) has been sitting on top of this conference virtually the entire season – in spite of the fact that All-Everything Quarterback Tom Brady was forced to sit out the season’s first four games.  They are currently the top seed in the conference, but Oakland is only one game behind at 12-3.  Should both teams finish at 13-3, Oakland will get the seed.  In that event, Oakland will be 5-0 against teams that both Oakland and New England have played, while the Patriots will be 4-1 in those games.

Oakland has beaten Baltimore (28-27), Denver twice (30-20 and they will have to beat the Broncos on Sunday to finish at 13-3), Houston (27-20), and Buffalo (38-24).  New England has wins over Houston (27-0), Buffalo (41-25), Baltimore (30-23), and Denver (16-3).  But in Week Four – the last week of Brady’s exile – the Pats were shutout by Buffalo 16-0.  That lonely loss is the only possible lasting impact of the Brady suspension – and for that loss to drop New England into the second seed, Oakland will have to win in Denver without their starting quarterback and Miami will have to beat New England (also without their starting quarterback) on Sunday.

Neither of those outcomes is unthinkable.

The Denver-Oakland game we’ll deal with in a minute.

As for Miami, the Dolphins won a defining game (and punched their playoff ticket) last Sunday when they went into freezing Buffalo and won in overtime with their backup quarterback.  That victory establishes them as one of the wildcard teams (currently the sixth seed).  If they win their last game against the Patriots and Kansas City loses on the road in San Diego, the Dolphins could finish as the fifth seed, pushing KC into the sixth slot.

I don’t know that the difference in seeding is enough for the Dolphins to give maximum effort in their last game.  I do think the fact that they will be playing at home against the hated Patriots is reason enough.  There are other reasons, too.  Matt Moore – the man at the helm in Ryan Tannehill’s absence – needs all of the real-time reps he can get.  Plus, the Dolphins are not so established that they can turn things off and turn them back on.  I don’t think that they think they have the luxury of resting starters.

All of that being said, I don’t believe that they could handle New England’s best game.  I don’t know, though, that they will get New England’s best game.  There is little on the table for the Patriots.  The slide from first to second will only matter if both New England and Oakland win their divisional round matchups – and the Raiders won’t have their starting QB.  I don’t truly expect to see Brady on the field too long – maybe the first half, or maybe just the first drive.  Some other notables (like LeGarrette Blount) may also be done early.  The Patriots may surprise me, but I think that this game is there for the Dolphins to take, if they want it.

AFC North

The 10-5 Pittsburgh Steelers wrapped up their division title with a gritty victory over the game Baltimore Ravens.  They are locked in as the number three seed.  The AFC South champions in Houston could finish at 10-6 if they win in Tennessee on Sunday, but for Pittsburgh to also finish at 10-6, they would have to lose at home against the one-win Cleveland team.  Even if that happens, Pittsburgh’s strength-of-victory index will be better than Houston’s.

AFC West

Oakland (12-3) leads the division, holds the second seed, and has a chance at the number one seed.  But they haven’t locked up the division, yet.  Kansas City sits right behind them at 11-4, holding the tie breaker by virtue of winning both games against the Raiders this season.  They (KC) finishes the season on the road against a fading but dangerous San Diego team, while the Raiders and backup QB Matt McGloin journey into Denver to play last year’s champions.

The disappointed Broncos will certainly give Oakland its best game, but I legitimately wonder if Denver can take Oakland even if they are playing at home against the Raiders’ backup signal caller.  The Bronco offense has creaked to a halt during the season’s final weeks.  During their current three-game losing streak, Denver has failed to score more than ten points in any of them.  However, the Raiders Achilles Heel even before the loss of Derek Carr was its defense (ranked twenty-eighth overall and allowing 24 points per game).  Denver managed 20 points against them in Oakland earlier this season.  If they can manage that many at home on Sunday, they can put the game in McGloin’s hands – and Denver still has football’s best pass defense.

While Denver is flawed, Oakland – minus its QB – is, I think, more flawed.  I expect to see Oakland lose this game (giving New England the number one seed, regardless).  I’m less clear on what to expect from the Chargers and Chiefs.  While the Chargers are always dangerous, they have mostly found ways to lose games this year while KC has mostly found ways to win games this year.  In the final analysis, I just don’t see Kansas City – with so much at stake – losing it all to a 5-10 team, even if they are a division opponent playing at home.  My best guess at the way this plays out has KC pulling off the division title and the second seed on the last day of the season, sending Oakland to the fifth seed and sending them on the road to open the playoffs in:

AFC South

Houston.  The Texans (now 9-6) have yet to lose a division game all season (they are 5-0 so far).  When 3-12 Jacksonville rose up last Sunday to rend the now 8-7 Tennessee Titans, they dropped Tennessee to 1-4 in the division.  So even though Tennessee could tie Houston at 9-7 with a win at home against them Sunday, the Texans own the tie breaker.  They are locked into the fourth seed and likely to draw the Raiders in the wildcard round of the playoffs, while Pittsburgh will most likely match up with Miami.

None of the AFC participants can change.  The only thing Week 17 can alter is the seeding.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons (10-5) are two games up on their closest competitor (Tampa Bay is 8-7) with one game left.  They are the division champion.  They are currently sitting in the second seed with its corresponding first-round bye.  A final week victory over New Orleans (at home) will clinch that seeding.  New Orleans is 7-8 and kind of a more dangerous version of the Chargers.  The Saints have averaged 29.1 points a game this year (making them the NFL’s second-highest scoring team this year).  They are also number one in yardage and number one in passing yards. Furthermore, this offensive juggernaut will be working against the Falcons’ twenty-third ranked defense (number 26 against the pass) that is allowing 24.9 points a game (the twenty-fifth ranked scoring defense in the NFL).

On the other hand, Atlanta is scoring 33.5 points a game (making them the NFL’s number one scoring offense) and ranks second in yards (behind New Orleans) with the number 3 passing attack and the number 7 running attack.  New Orleans answers with the number 30 scoring defense (allowing 27.7 points a game) and the number 25 defense by yardage allowed (number 30 against the pass).

To put it lightly, America is expecting a shootout.  The Falcons won the first meeting of these teams in New Orleans 45-32.  This is, by no means, a lock – although you have to think that the home-standing Falcons should prevail.

Behind them are the young and inconsistent Buccaneers.  Tampa Bay finishes at home against the dethroned Carolina Panthers.  If Tampa prevails, they will finish at 9-7, putting them (theoretically) in the mix for that final playoff spot.  The loser of the Detroit-Green Bay tilt will also be 9-7.  Washington currently sits at 8-6-1, and could finish at 9-6-1 with a playoff berth if they finish up their season with a win.

So while Atlanta controls its own fate, Tampa Bay decidedly does not.  My strong expectation is that they will lose to the Panthers on Sunday anyway, obviating any tie-breaking scenarios.

NFC East

As the Dallas Cowboys sliced and diced the Detroit Lions last week, they locked up their division title and the first seed.  Their final game in Philadelphia is meaningless, although the statements coming from the Dallas camp suggest that they will keep the pedal down.

Also locked up is the first wildcard spot (the fifth seed).  That belongs to the 10-5 New York Giants.

Behind them are the 8-6-1 Washington Redskins.  They play at home Sunday afternoon with everything to play for against the Giants whose only real motivation could come from knocking the Redskins out of the playoffs.  And because of the tie on their record, Washington will either be in or out depending on the result.  At 9-6-1 their record would be better than any of the teams that could be 9-7.  At 8-7-1, they would finish behind any 9-7 teams (and there will be at least one of those).

My expectation here is that Washington will take care of business.  I am not all that impressed with the Giants (although their defense can certainly rise to the occasion), and I don’t expect to see them win this game on the road against a desperate (and pretty good) Washington team.  In the world of most-likely-outcomes, Washington should win and complete the playoff field.

NFC West

At 9-5-1, Seattle will be the only team from this division to finish over .500.  They have already won the title, but lost control of the number two seed with a surprising loss at home against Arizona last week.  Should Atlanta fall to New Orleans, then the second seed will be theirs if they can beat the two-win San Francisco team (in San Francisco).  Seattle would fall to the fourth seed should they lose, as the winner of the Packers-Lions game will be 10-6.  Don’t see that happening.  The Seahawks have been wildly inconsistent at the end of the season, but should still be better than the struggling 49ers.

NFC North

The season ends on Sunday night in Detroit where the 9-6 Lions will square off against the 9-6 Green Bay Packers.  At stake will be the division title in a winner-take-all showdown.

The loser will probably be home for the playoffs – assuming Washington takes care of the Giants.  Should New York rise up and knock Washington out of the playoffs then both these teams will go into the playoffs – the winner as the division champion and possible number two seed, and the loser as the number six seed.

If Detroit wins (and Atlanta and Seattle lose), the Lions and Falcons would both finish at 10-6.  The tie-breaker here would fall to Detroit on record against common opponents.  The Lions would have four wins (Philadelphia, Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Green Bay) against just one loss (Green Bay).  Atlanta would finish 3-2 against these same opponents, with wins against New Orleans, Green Bay and Los Angeles; and losses to Philadelphia and New Orleans (if they lose that last game).  A Falcons loss to New Orleans could push them down as far as fourth.

If it ends up Green Bay vs Tampa Bay for the last wildcard spot – with both teams at 9-7 – the Packers would get the nod based on strength of victory.

If the Sunday night game tilts the other way, with Green Bay winning the division, they would lose any tie-breaker to Atlanta (by virtue of a 32-33 loss to them in Week Eight).  So the highest the Packers could climb is the third seed (and it would take Seattle losing to San Francisco for that to happen).

If it comes to a tie-breaker between Detroit and Tampa Bay, Detroit would win on record against common opponents.  The Lions would be 3-2 (beating Los Angeles, New Orleans and Chicago; and losing to Chicago and Dallas).  Tampa Bay would be 2-3 against those same opponents (beating Chicago and New Orleans while losing to Los Angeles, Dallas and New Orleans).

So Tampa Bay isn’t really in the mix, regardless.

Under the most likely scenarios, the NFC seeding should end up Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, NFC North Champion, NY Giants and Washington.

And who wins the NFC North showdown?  Green Bay.  And they’ll be a dangerous team to deal with in the playoffs.

At least that’s how I see it all playing out.