With 23 seconds left in the first half, Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott fired the ball high down the right sideline, well over the head of intended receiver, Dez Bryant.  It was his last incompletion of the evening.  Dak would complete all of his last 12 official passes, as well as a touchdown pass to running back Lance Dunbar that was called back by a holding penalty.  In a complete reversal of form from the previous Sunday night, Prescott was an almost machine-like 32 of 36 passing, leading Dallas to 449 offensive yards and a 26-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

What was the difference between this team and the team that was dominated by the Giants one week earlier?  The Giants’ blueprint isn’t one that every team can follow.  The Giants are skilled enough along the defensive line that they were able to compete with the Cowboy running game for the entire sixty minutes.  They also have enough talented secondary depth that they could blanket the Cowboy receivers – giving them the opportunity to relentlessly blitz Prescott.

The Bucs did exactly none of those things.  Cowboy running back Ezekiel Elliott struck for 5 yards on his initial carry and never slowed down.  He gained 26 yards in Dallas’ first drive (which lasted 5 minutes and 14 seconds), and then gained 11 more in their second drive (that consumed another 5 minutes and 58 seconds).  After battering their way to 78 rushing yards in the first half (48 by Elliott), they ground out another 107 in the second half (with Elliott gaining 111 yards in the second half alone on just 13 carries).

Coaches speak a lot about “complimentary football.”  What happened in Dallas last Sunday night was a textbook example of this phenomenon.

The pounding Dallas running game took the spring out of the pass rush.  With no pass rush, Tampa Bay’s soft zone coverages were repeatedly exposed.  In his 32 for 36 night, Prescott only threw 3 passes more than 15 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage.  Instead, he stood comfortably in his pocket and sliced up the Buc defense with a surgical short passing game.  Tight end Jason Witten never caught a pass for more than 8 yards, but he caught all ten thrown in his direction for a total of 51 yards.

The easiest pickings were usually to whichever side cornerback Brent Grimes lined up, as he almost always left a gap of 8-12 yards between himself and the receiver he was supposed to be covering.

But the run-pass compliment led to an even greater offense-defense compliment.  The Cowboy offense ran 71 plays and consumed 36 minutes and 4 seconds of playing time, forcing the Tampa Bay offense to struggle to find its rhythm.  This was especially true during the game’s first half when the Buccaneer offense saw the field for only 24 plays and just 9 minutes and 40 seconds.

The one time that Tampa Bay did establish a little rhythm – getting the ball to open the second half – they did the things to the Cowboy secondary that most other teams have been doing to them.  (Remembering that Dallas came into the weekend with the twenty-eighth ranked pass defense, allowing 69.7% of the passes thrown against them to be completed.  They had only intercepted five passes the whole season until Sunday night when they picked off three.)

Over the course of Tampa Bay’s first two second half possessions, quarterback Jameis Winston led them on touchdown drives of 75 yards and 81 yards.  After averaging just 4.4 yards per offensive play in the first half, Tampa Bay ripped into the Dallas defense in the third quarter at an average of 9.2 yards per play.  As the trigger man, Winston exposed the Dallas pass defense to the tune of 8 of 11 for 147 yards, with both touchdowns coming on passes (in varying degrees of difficulty).

The Dallas defense re-asserted control in the fourth quarter.  They began by sending a few blitzes, but soon settled back into their comfortable zone defenses.  That was because they discovered that they only needed one man to generate more than sufficient pressure.

That man was David Irving.

At 6-7, there were moments last Sunday night that Irving was somewhat reminiscent of Too Tall Jones as he almost effortlessly moved offending offensive tackles out of his way on his pursuit of Winston.  It’s easy to make too much of this one quarter – given that Tampa Bay had pretty much abandoned the run and they were playing with a backup right tackle (the one that lined up against Irving).  Still, this undrafted player out of Iowa State (who is only 23) has the look of someone who could develop into a significant playmaker.

With two games to play, the Cowboys still stand as a formidable opponent.  This game reinforces a couple of impressions.  First, that you can’t beat the Cowboys unless you can slow the running game.  Second, that the Cowboy pass defense is vulnerable, a weakness that a better opponent may eventually exploit.  Three, the Cowboy run defense (ranked second in the league at the start of the week) may be a little overrated, but is still one of the best run defenses in the league.

I still have a feeling that this Cowboy team is ripe for a playoff upset.  But it will have to be a team that can man up against the Cowboy offensive line.

The NFL Gamebook for this game can be found here; and the Football-Reference Summary is here.

I don’t know that I would use the word miracle, but as the fourth quarter commenced in bitterly cold Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday, a Titans’ victory seemed as unlikely as the Electoral College jumping ship and installing Hillary as the President.  They trailed by ten points in a game that began at 1 measly degree above zero with a -19 degree wind chill.  This was a heart-breaking situation for the Titans, whose playoff hopes pretty much depended on somehow coming into Kansas City and winning this game.

Even after the Titans had somehow narrowed the gap to 17-16, victory still seemed out of reach.  With five seconds left. Kicker Ryan Succop lined up what would be a 53-yard field goal attempt into the teeth of that wind – kicking a football that was – by that time – a frozen rock.

Not surprisingly, the kick fell short, and with it Tennessee’s playoff hopes.  But wait!  Kansas City coach Andy Reid had called a timeout just before the kick.  Given another chance, Succop’s kick just eased over the crossbar and sent the Titans into their toasty locker room with a 19-17 victory.

And all of a sudden, the AFC South is theirs to lose.  And just as suddenly, the AFC West grows more chaotic.

With the victory, both Tennessee and Houston sit at 8-6 after the Texans fought their way past the Jacksonville Jaguars 21-20.  Both teams are one game ahead of the 7-7 Indianapolis Colts.  Houston holds the presumptive tie-breaker by virtue of a 27-20 victory over the Titans in Houston back in Week Four.  This week, Tennessee goes into Jacksonville to play the 2-12 Jaguars while Houston hosts the 5-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals.  Nothing in the NFL is a lock – and both the Jaguars and Bengals fought to the end last week.  But if you are a team fighting for that playoff spot, you just can’t lose either of these games.

If both these teams make it to 9-6, they will face off in Week 17 – in Tennessee – to decide the division.  With the Titans trending up and playing at home while the Texans are trending down the onus will be on the Texans – who have just recently benched their ex-starting quarterback – to win in Tennessee.  It’s a tall order.

Even if they lose the division, though, the Texans playoff hopes won’t necessarily end there.  At 9-7 they will be very much alive – thanks to the New England Patriots, who went into Sports Authority Field at Mile High and vanquished the Denver Broncos 16-3, likely ending the Broncos title defense.

As the day in the AFC West began, Kansas City held the division lead at 10-3.  Oakland was also 10-3, but had lost both games against the Chiefs.  While KC was losing, the Raiders survived against San Diego, jumping to 11-3 and taking command not only of the AFC West, but also of the number two seed and its coveted first round bye.

Denver, then 8-5 was still in a solid playoff position – although no longer a viable threat to win the AFC West, provided they could hold serve at home against a New England team that had much less at stake than the Broncos.  Failing to do that dropped them to 8-6 along with Baltimore, Houston and Tennessee (and leaves them a game behind the 9-5 Dolphins).

Two victories will push them to 10-6 and a likely playoff berth, but to do that they will have to win in Kansas City and beat Oakland in Week 17.  Too tough a task, I think, for a not very good Denver team.  More likely is a split of those two games, leaving them as part of a growing logjam at 9-7.

If Houston beats Cincinnati but loses in Tennessee, they will also be 9-7.

Miami plays in Buffalo and at home against New England – easy to see them losing both of those games and finishing 9-7 as well.

If Buffalo beats Miami and then goes into New York and takes care of the Jets – which I can easily see them doing – they will also be 9-7.  One of four such teams that will all be fighting for that final wildcard spot.

Under the NFL tie-breaking procedures in place for just such an eventuality, this mess would be sorted out in two phases.  Phase one would put Buffalo and Miami through the division tie-breaker regimen (as only one team per division can be represented in the wildcard tie-breaking process).  The survivor of the Buffalo-Miami process will then participate in the tie-breaking process with Houston and Denver.

Phase two will only take two steps, but the Buffalo/Miami contest will last until Step 5 of the division process.  A Buffalo win over Miami in Buffalo will square the season series between the clubs (Step One); even up their division records – both will then be 3-3 in the division (Step Two); even their record against common opponents – both will be 7-5 in those games (Step Three); and even both conference records at 6-6 (Step Four). Step Five compares respective Strength of Victory Index.  This is essentially adding up the wins of the teams beaten by Buffalo or Miami.  Here, finally, the tie is broken as the teams that Buffalo has beaten (New England [14], Miami [9], Arizona [6.5], Cincinnati [6.5], Los Angeles [5], NY Jets [4], Jacksonville [2] and San Francisco [1] – using their projected final season victory total, with ties counting for .5 wins) total 48 wins.  Miami’s nine victims (Pittsburgh [11], Buffalo [9], San Diego [7], Arizona [6.5], Los Angeles [5], NY Jets [4] twice and San Francisco [1]) total up to 47.5.

Plugging Buffalo into the wildcard tie-breaker, the first step is a head-to-head sweep.  This is a situation where one of the teams would have either beaten both the other two teams or lost to both the other two teams.  Denver did beat Houston, 27-9, but neither team played Buffalo.  So this tie will go to Step Two – Conference Record.  There, Houston gains the advantage.  Splitting their last two games will give them a 7-5 conference record, better than the 6-6 mark that both Buffalo and Denver would compile under this scenario.

It’s complex – and a lot of things can change in two weeks – but with the finish line in sight I think Tennessee and Houston hold slight advantages and that Denver will probably be outside looking in come playoff time.

One huge caveat is the last game of the season between the Dolphins and Patriots.  It is entirely possible that New England will have the conference’s top seed wrapped up by the time they play that last game.  If that is true, and New England plays the game “under wraps,” then the Dolphins chances of winning that game and going into the playoffs at 10-6 improve dramatically.

In the NFC, things have been following a lot closer to the script.  The only shift that I would think to make in the NFC came as a result of Washington’s Monday Night defeat at the hands of the Carolina Panthers.  Washington is now 7-6-1, but finishes the season with winnable games in Chicago against the 3-win Bears and a home game against the Giants.  New York sits at 10-4 and is on a good run, but they don’t impress me as good enough to beat Washington in Washington.  If the Redskins finish at 9-6-1, they will still finish ahead of everyone at 9-7, but will now probably have to settle for the second wildcard spot, yielding the first to the Giants.

In Week Nine of the 2016 NFL season, the Atlanta Falcon’s completely dismantled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-28.  At that point, Tampa Bay was 3-5.  They were already 2.5 games behind the then 6-3 Falcons and frankly they looked pretty terrible.

Especially on defense.  Of their first seven opponents, only two (Carolina and San Francisco) failed to score at least 24 points against them, while the Buc defense was scorched for 30 points or more four times – including two games where they surrendered 40 or more.  In yardage allowed, only the 49ers failed to gain at least 300 against them, while on four other occasions their opponents soared to over 400 yards of offense against them.

This number includes a 626-yard pasting (498 through the air and 128 on the ground) administered by the Oakland Raiders the week before the Bucs were sliced and diced by the Falcons.  To that point of the season, Tampa Bay was allowing 398.9 yards per game (281.0 passing and 117.9 rushing) and 29.0 points per game.  Any discussion of Tampa Bay as a playoff contender would have elicited giggles.

Since that point, Tampa Bay has won four in a row.  And the defense has been the hero.  In victories over the Bears, Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers, Tampa Bay allowed just 13.3 points per game while cutting the passing yards against to 187.75.

Now, Tampa Bay sits tied with Atlanta atop their division – and since two of those victories have come at the expense of teams fighting for first round byes (Seattle and Kansas City) – this team has to be taken seriously.

Two of their final four games are a home-and-away set against New Orleans.  The Saints have lost three of their last four, so it’s tempting to call for a Tampa Bay sweep.  I’m not sure the Bucs have been that convincing.  They are 5-1 on the road, but only 2-4 at home.  Right now, this still looks like a split to me.

Their other road game is in Dallas.  I do feel the Cowboys will stub their toes a bit before the playoffs, but the Bucs will still have to go into that game as underdogs.  This would bring them to 8-7 going into their last game of the season – at home against Carolina.  The 4-8 Panthers are three games out with four games left.  The Panthers are also the defending NFC Champs.  By the last game of the season, I don’t expect them to still be in playoff contention (although that is still possible), but I do expect to see a lot of pride from them.  Finishing 9-7 will be a challenge for the young Bucs, but if they are the team that they’ve looked like these last four weeks, then this has to be looked at as a winnable game.

So now the question becomes, is 9-7 good enough to get Tampa Bay into the playoffs.  The answer to that question depends in very large part on what happens in Green Bay.

I go back and forth, now, with the Packers.  Two games ago when they dominated Philadelphia on the road, I convinced myself that the Green Bay team that we have expected to see all season had finally figured itself out.  Last Sunday, the Packers were lethargic enough as they squeezed past the fading Houston Texans (at home) 21-13.  The Pack is now 6-6.  For them to hold off the Bucs, Green Bay will have to win at least three of their last four games.  How realistic is that?

In my opinion, not terribly.  Green Bay’s closing schedule isn’t unfathomably difficult, but it is tough enough for an up-and-down team.  This week they have Seattle.  Most of the time, Seattle is one of the elite teams in the league.  Last week I speculated that the Packers might be favored in this contest.  Now, I’m backing off of that.  Next, they are on the road against Chicago.  The Bears are playing a little better recently and the Pack is 2-4 on the road.  They then finish against the other two teams that are vying for the top of the NFC North Division, Minnesota and Detroit.

If they lose any two of those games (which, I think, is likely), they open the door for Tampa Bay to slip through.  Under this scenario, I still like the Redskins to hold onto the fifth seed, with the sixth seed coming down to Tampa Bay or Minnesota.

The Vikings are currently 6-6, but their closing schedule is comparatively soft.  They have one notably tough road game left (in Green Bay).  Their other road game takes them into Jacksonville this week – a very winnable contest.  Their home games are against Indianapolis and Chicago.  A 3-1 finish is very predictable, making them a likely 9-7 team.  If all of this plays out, the Buccaneers will take the tie breaker on Strength of Victory – meaning that the teams they will have beaten project to have more wins than the teams that Minnesota will have beaten.  It’s an exceedingly narrow edge.  But it is an edge.

Atlanta Loses Advantage

In other playoff developments, I speculated last week that Tampa Bay’s win over Seattle might have given Atlanta an inside track to the second seed in the NFC.  If true, the Falcons saw that edge evaporate Sunday morning when they lost a home thriller to Kansas City, 29-28.  Kansas City is quite a good team, but if you are going to get the second seed in your conference and you have the Chiefs at home, you need to win that game.  Seattle regains the inside track to the second seed.  For this week, anyway.

A couple weeks ago, Greg Rosenthal – a regular contributor to NFL.com – stated that the Tennessee Titans would be making the playoffs.  I was skeptical.  Tennessee is improved.  Defensively, they are nothing special, but good enough to see a 9-7 finish.  They have winnable home games against Denver (not playing to their Super Bowl form of last year) and the fading Houston Texans.  Of their road games, they should also beat Jacksonville.  The other road game in Kansas City is probably too much to ask of this young team, but still a 3-1 finish puts them at 9-7.

The major fly in the Titans ointment is the fact that they have lost both games to Indianapolis this season (costing them the tie-breaker there).  They will also, probably, lose a tie-breaker with Houston.  Even if they beat the Texans in Week 17, their division record will still sit at only 3-3.  Houston is currently 3-0 in its division and would have to lose all of its remaining division games (including a home game against Jacksonville) to lose its tie-breaker with Tennessee.  So if either of those teams also finished 9-7, they would go to the playoffs ahead of the Titans.

If Tennessee ends up with an invite to the dance, they will look back to Week Twelve as the week when fortunes tilted in their direction.  The Chicago Bears gave them more trouble than expected, but Tennessee prevailed (27-21) while both of their principle rivals had winnable contests get away from them.  Indianapolis picked a tough week to play without Andrew Luck, as they fell to Pittsburgh 28-7.  Meanwhile, Houston failed at home against a beatable San Diego team, falling 21-13.

These results leave Houston a half-game ahead in the division (6-5) and Indianapolis (at 5-6) trailing both.  Houston has three difficult road games remaining in Green Bay, Indianapolis and Tennessee.  They will need to win one of those, along with their remaining home games against Jacksonville and Cincinnati to tie Tennessee at 9-7.  Indianapolis also has three tricky road games left against the Jets in New York, in Minnesota and in Oakland.  I don’t see them winning in Oakland, which means they would have to win both of the other two – along with their remaining home games against Houston and Jacksonville – to tie the Titans at 9-7.

They are not home free, by any means, but I think the Titans playoff chances are much improved.  They now have the inside track in that division.  If they win the games they should win, they will be tough to catch.  That list, however, includes their Week Fourteen matchup at home against the Denver Broncos.  That game, and the last game of the season against Houston, will likely decide Tennessee’s fate.

If the Titans go in, it would probably be as the four-seed, pushing Pittsburgh to number three.

The Watershed Packers-Eagles Game

One of the challenges presented by the week-to-week NFL is knowing which games to believe and which to throw away.  Last Monday night, Green Bay went into Philadelphia and dominated them, 27-13.  So, what sense do we make of this?  Since this is the kind of performance we’ve expected all year from the Packers, do we assume that the Pack is back?  Doing this ignores the 4-6 start, and especially discounts the four-game losing streak that preceded Monday night’s victory.  In those four games, the Packer defense was carved up for 38.25 points per game and 420.75 yards per game (300.75 passing yards and 120 rushing yards).  Against Philadelphia, they surrendered 13 points and 292 yards (211 passing and 81 rushing).

The other interpretation, of course, is that this is just the continuation of the slide that Philadelphia has been in since their 3-0 start.  Monday’s loss was their sixth in the last eight games, and leaves them also 5-6 on the season.

If the Packers have figured some things out and can start to get a little defensive consistency, then a playoff spot is still there for the taking.  This week they play Houston at home – a very winnable game that could even their record at 6-6.  Then they have Seattle at home.  Seattle – as we’ll discuss later – is another team that we have to make a decision about.  At the moment – since this game is played at Lambeau Field – let’s assume the Packers prevail.  Now, they would be 7-6.  After that, they play in Chicago against a fairly dismal Bears team and then come home to play the fading Vikings.  They should win both of those games, too, pushing them to 9-6.  The last game is a road game in Detroit.  This Packer team will have to show me a little more improvement before I see them winning a road game in Detroit.  Even with that loss, though, I think Green Bay has an excellent shot at a 4-1 finish that would push them to 9-7 for the season.  Will that be enough?

I just mentioned that the Vikings were fading.  They lost in Detroit on Thanksgiving 16-13, dropping them to 6-5 on the season – a game up, still, on the Packers even though they have now lost 5 of their last 6.  They have a road game coming up against Jacksonville that they should win and I would make them favorites at home against Indianapolis and Chicago.  But they also have a home game tonight against the Dallas Cowboys and a Week Sixteen road game in Green Bay.  To stay ahead of the Pack, they would have to win at least one of these, but I wouldn’t favor them in either match-up.  So Minnesota is, I think, a strong candidate to finish 9-7 as well.

After their Thanksgiving win against the Vikings, Detroit now leads the division at 7-4, one up on Minnesota and two up on Green Bay.  The end of their schedule, though, is very treacherous with challenging road games in New Orleans, New York (to face the Giants), and Dallas.  They would need to author one upset in that group along with winning home division games against Chicago and Green Bay to win the division outright.  Otherwise, they, too, will finish 9-7.

Should the NFC North end in a 3-way tie at 9-7, who would have the tie-breaker?  It would be Detroit.  Assuming they win that last game (at home) against Green Bay to force the tie, they will be 3-1 among those teams (they have already beaten Minnesota twice).  Green Bay then holds the tie-breaker over the Vikings as Minnesota (losers of 3 of their first 4 division games) will almost certainly finish with a worse division record than the Pack.

So, with Detroit now in the driver’s seat to win the division, will 9-7 get Green Bay a wildcard spot?  As of last week, I was still fairly bullish on the Eagles.  In spite of their losing streak, they were still playing very well against good teams.  The bad home loss on Monday night has pushed them to 5-6.  If they finish at 9-7 with Green Bay, they Packers will get the playoff nod on the strength of their head-to-head victory.  So, for Philadelphia to maintain their playoff spot, they would have to win out.  This would mean winning road games in Cincinnati and Baltimore (against the up-trending Ravens) as well as tough division home games against Washington, the Giants and Dallas.  Too tall an order, I think.

If the Redskins finish 9-6-1 (they are currently 6-4-1 but have three probable victories ahead with home games against Carolina and the Giants, and a probable road win in Chicago), Washington would get the first wildcard spot.

The Giants, by the way, are currently 8-3 and sitting in the first wildcard spot.  Their closing schedule, though, is brutal.  This week they go into Pittsburgh.  Then they are home against Dallas and Detroit.  They then finish on the road against Philadelphia and Washington.  Their current record is the result of a six-game winning streak that they have fashioned against less-than-convincing opponents (the Rams, Bengals, Bears and Browns).  If the Giants win two of the five remaining games on their rugged closing schedule, they will almost certainly make the playoffs.  If they finish 9-7, they will probably do so with a 6-6 conference record which won’t be good enough to qualify.

And Seattle?

I mentioned the Seahawks earlier.  With quarterback Russell Wilson finally healthy, the ‘Hawks had won three in a row (including a win in New England) and looked like, perhaps, the best team in football while doing it.  Last Sunday they were stunned by Tampa Bay.  A meaningless loss? Probably.  Except this team, which is now 5-0 at home, is only 2-3-1 on the road.  Does a mediocre road team go into Green Bay and beat an up-trending Packer team?  Right now I don’t think so.

So if Seattle wins all their other games except the Green Bay game, they would finish 11-4-1.  Good enough for the number two seed?  Maybe not.  The Atlanta Falcons are currently 7-4, with three of their last five at home (against Kansas City, San Francisco and New Orleans) and winnable road games in Los Angeles and Carolina.  Atlanta has a real shot at the second seed.

Kansas City Scrambles the West Again

One week after determining that Kansas City had lost its grip on its division, they won it back with a gritty (and lucky) upset in Denver Sunday night.  So, now, how does the wild, wild AFC West play out?  Oakland still leads the division at 9-2.  The timing of their season, so far, has been impeccable.  Many of the teams they beat early in the season were bad teams at the time, but have since started to figure things out (New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Tampa Bay).  Then later in the season, Oakland has played a couple of teams that had started the season strong, but were fading (Denver and Houston).  The Raiders have been exciting on both offense and defense this year.  Maybe I should have said scary on defense.  They play an admirably tough closing schedule with home games against Buffalo and Indianapolis and road games against all three of their division opponents (Kansas City, San Diego and Denver).  If they are the cream of this division, they will have an opportunity to prove it.

One game behind Oakland, now, is Kansas City at 8-3.  Their closing schedule is also challenging, but softer (road games in Atlanta and San Diego and home games against Oakland Tennessee and Denver).  Since Kansas City beat Oakland in Oakland, they could clinch the division tie-breaker if they beat the Raiders at home in Week Fourteen.  That win in Oakland gives them a leg up, not just for the division title, but for the second seed in the conference.

Denver is now 7-4 and, I think, fading.  Their remaining schedule is the most challenging of the three, making it all the harder for them to catch up.  They have a road game against Jacksonville, but also must travel to Tennessee and Kansas City.  Their remaining home schedule is New England and Oakland.  For the moment, I still have them in that final playoff spot, but Buffalo is lurking in the shadows, should the Broncos continue to slip.