Archives for December 2016

One Game More to Decide Playoff Teams

With surprising victories by Miami and Jacksonville, much of the drama that might have hung over Week 17 has been resolved. We go into the last week of the season with the playoff teams mostly decided – if not yet seeded. Here – essentially – is what is still to be decided:

AFC Eastern Division

New England (13-2) has been sitting on top of this conference virtually the entire season – in spite of the fact that All-Everything Quarterback Tom Brady was forced to sit out the season’s first four games. They are currently the top seed in the conference, but Oakland is only one game behind at 12-3. Should both teams finish at 13-3, Oakland will get the seed. In that event, Oakland will be 5-0 against teams that both Oakland and New England have played, while the Patriots will be 4-1 in those games.

Oakland has beaten Baltimore (28-27), Denver twice (30-20 and they will have to beat the Broncos on Sunday to finish at 13-3), Houston (27-20), and Buffalo (38-24). New England has wins over Houston (27-0), Buffalo (41-25), Baltimore (30-23), and Denver (16-3). But in Week Four – the last week of Brady’s exile – the Pats were shutout by Buffalo 16-0. That lonely loss is the only possible lasting impact of the Brady suspension – and for that loss to drop New England into the second seed, Oakland will have to win in Denver without their starting quarterback and Miami will have to beat New England (also without their starting quarterback) on Sunday.

Neither of those outcomes is unthinkable.

The Denver-Oakland game we’ll deal with in a minute.

As for Miami, the Dolphins won a defining game (and punched their playoff ticket) last Sunday when they went into freezing Buffalo and won in overtime with their backup quarterback. That victory establishes them as one of the wildcard teams (currently the sixth seed). If they win their last game against the Patriots and Kansas City loses on the road in San Diego, the Dolphins could finish as the fifth seed, pushing KC into the sixth slot.

I don’t know that the difference in seeding is enough for the Dolphins to give maximum effort in their last game. I do think the fact that they will be playing at home against the hated Patriots is reason enough. There are other reasons, too. Matt Moore – the man at the helm in Ryan Tannehill’s absence – needs all of the real-time reps he can get. Plus, the Dolphins are not so established that they can turn things off and turn them back on. I don’t think that they think they have the luxury of resting starters.

All of that being said, I don’t believe that they could handle New England’s best game. I don’t know, though, that they will get New England’s best game. There is little on the table for the Patriots. The slide from first to second will only matter if both New England and Oakland win their divisional round matchups – and the Raiders won’t have their starting QB. I don’t truly expect to see Brady on the field too long – maybe the first half, or maybe just the first drive. Some other notables (like LeGarrette Blount) may also be done early. The Patriots may surprise me, but I think that this game is there for the Dolphins to take, if they want it.

AFC North

The 10-5 Pittsburgh Steelers wrapped up their division title with a gritty victory over the game Baltimore Ravens. They are locked in as the number three seed. The AFC South champions in Houston could finish at 10-6 if they win in Tennessee on Sunday, but for Pittsburgh to also finish at 10-6, they would have to lose at home against the one-win Cleveland team. Even if that happens, Pittsburgh’s strength-of-victory index will be better than Houston’s.

AFC West

Oakland (12-3) leads the division, holds the second seed, and has a chance at the number one seed. But they haven’t locked up the division, yet. Kansas City sits right behind them at 11-4, holding the tie breaker by virtue of winning both games against the Raiders this season. They (KC) finishes the season on the road against a fading but dangerous San Diego team, while the Raiders and backup QB Matt McGloin journey into Denver to play last year’s champions.

The disappointed Broncos will certainly give Oakland its best game, but I legitimately wonder if Denver can take Oakland even if they are playing at home against the Raiders’ backup signal caller. The Bronco offense has creaked to a halt during the season’s final weeks. During their current three-game losing streak, Denver has failed to score more than ten points in any of them. However, the Raiders Achilles Heel even before the loss of Derek Carr was its defense (ranked twenty-eighth overall and allowing 24 points per game). Denver managed 20 points against them in Oakland earlier this season. If they can manage that many at home on Sunday, they can put the game in McGloin’s hands – and Denver still has football’s best pass defense.

While Denver is flawed, Oakland – minus its QB – is, I think, more flawed. I expect to see Oakland lose this game (giving New England the number one seed, regardless). I’m less clear on what to expect from the Chargers and Chiefs. While the Chargers are always dangerous, they have mostly found ways to lose games this year while KC has mostly found ways to win games this year. In the final analysis, I just don’t see Kansas City – with so much at stake – losing it all to a 5-10 team, even if they are a division opponent playing at home. My best guess at the way this plays out has KC pulling off the division title and the second seed on the last day of the season, sending Oakland to the fifth seed and sending them on the road to open the playoffs in:

AFC South

Houston. The Texans (now 9-6) have yet to lose a division game all season (they are 5-0 so far). When 3-12 Jacksonville rose up last Sunday to rend the now 8-7 Tennessee Titans, they dropped Tennessee to 1-4 in the division. So even though Tennessee could tie Houston at 9-7 with a win at home against them Sunday, the Texans own the tie breaker. They are locked into the fourth seed and likely to draw the Raiders in the wildcard round of the playoffs, while Pittsburgh will most likely match up with Miami.

None of the AFC participants can change. The only thing Week 17 can alter is the seeding.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons (10-5) are two games up on their closest competitor (Tampa Bay is 8-7) with one game left. They are the division champion. They are currently sitting in the second seed with its corresponding first-round bye. A final week victory over New Orleans (at home) will clinch that seeding. New Orleans is 7-8 and kind of a more dangerous version of the Chargers. The Saints have averaged 29.1 points a game this year (making them the NFL’s second-highest scoring team this year). They are also number one in yardage and number one in passing yards. Furthermore, this offensive juggernaut will be working against the Falcons’ twenty-third ranked defense (number 26 against the pass) that is allowing 24.9 points a game (the twenty-fifth ranked scoring defense in the NFL).

On the other hand, Atlanta is scoring 33.5 points a game (making them the NFL’s number one scoring offense) and ranks second in yards (behind New Orleans) with the number 3 passing attack and the number 7 running attack. New Orleans answers with the number 30 scoring defense (allowing 27.7 points a game) and the number 25 defense by yardage allowed (number 30 against the pass).

To put it lightly, America is expecting a shootout. The Falcons won the first meeting of these teams in New Orleans 45-32. This is, by no means, a lock – although you have to think that the home-standing Falcons should prevail.

Behind them are the young and inconsistent Buccaneers. Tampa Bay finishes at home against the dethroned Carolina Panthers. If Tampa prevails, they will finish at 9-7, putting them (theoretically) in the mix for that final playoff spot. The loser of the Detroit-Green Bay tilt will also be 9-7. Washington currently sits at 8-6-1, and could finish at 9-6-1 with a playoff berth if they finish up their season with a win.

So while Atlanta controls its own fate, Tampa Bay decidedly does not. My strong expectation is that they will lose to the Panthers on Sunday anyway, obviating any tie-breaking scenarios.

NFC East

As the Dallas Cowboys sliced and diced the Detroit Lions last week, they locked up their division title and the first seed. Their final game in Philadelphia is meaningless, although the statements coming from the Dallas camp suggest that they will keep the pedal down.

Also locked up is the first wildcard spot (the fifth seed). That belongs to the 10-5 New York Giants.

Behind them are the 8-6-1 Washington Redskins. They play at home Sunday afternoon with everything to play for against the Giants whose only real motivation could come from knocking the Redskins out of the playoffs. And because of the tie on their record, Washington will either be in or out depending on the result. At 9-6-1 their record would be better than any of the teams that could be 9-7. At 8-7-1, they would finish behind any 9-7 teams (and there will be at least one of those).

My expectation here is that Washington will take care of business. I am not all that impressed with the Giants (although their defense can certainly rise to the occasion), and I don’t expect to see them win this game on the road against a desperate (and pretty good) Washington team. In the world of most-likely-outcomes, Washington should win and complete the playoff field.

NFC West

At 9-5-1, Seattle will be the only team from this division to finish over .500. They have already won the title, but lost control of the number two seed with a surprising loss at home against Arizona last week. Should Atlanta fall to New Orleans, then the second seed will be theirs if they can beat the two-win San Francisco team (in San Francisco). Seattle would fall to the fourth seed should they lose, as the winner of the Packers-Lions game will be 10-6. Don’t see that happening. The Seahawks have been wildly inconsistent at the end of the season, but should still be better than the struggling 49ers.

NFC North

The season ends on Sunday night in Detroit where the 9-6 Lions will square off against the 9-6 Green Bay Packers. At stake will be the division title in a winner-take-all showdown.

The loser will probably be home for the playoffs – assuming Washington takes care of the Giants. Should New York rise up and knock Washington out of the playoffs then both these teams will go into the playoffs – the winner as the division champion and possible number two seed, and the loser as the number six seed.

If Detroit wins (and Atlanta and Seattle lose), the Lions and Falcons would both finish at 10-6. The tie-breaker here would fall to Detroit on record against common opponents. The Lions would have four wins (Philadelphia, Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Green Bay) against just one loss (Green Bay). Atlanta would finish 3-2 against these same opponents, with wins against New Orleans, Green Bay and Los Angeles; and losses to Philadelphia and New Orleans (if they lose that last game). A Falcons loss to New Orleans could push them down as far as fourth.

If it ends up Green Bay vs Tampa Bay for the last wildcard spot – with both teams at 9-7 – the Packers would get the nod based on strength of victory.

If the Sunday night game tilts the other way, with Green Bay winning the division, they would lose any tie-breaker to Atlanta (by virtue of a 32-33 loss to them in Week Eight). So the highest the Packers could climb is the third seed (and it would take Seattle losing to San Francisco for that to happen).

If it comes to a tie-breaker between Detroit and Tampa Bay, Detroit would win on record against common opponents. The Lions would be 3-2 (beating Los Angeles, New Orleans and Chicago; and losing to Chicago and Dallas). Tampa Bay would be 2-3 against those same opponents (beating Chicago and New Orleans while losing to Los Angeles, Dallas and New Orleans).

So Tampa Bay isn’t really in the mix, regardless.

Under the most likely scenarios, the NFC seeding should end up Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, NFC North Champion, NY Giants and Washington.

And who wins the NFC North showdown? Green Bay. And they’ll be a dangerous team to deal with in the playoffs.

At least that’s how I see it all playing out.

Football

Cowboys Back to Form in Team Victory over Tampa Bay

With 23 seconds left in the first half, Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott fired the ball high down the right sideline, well over the head of intended receiver, Dez Bryant. It was his last incompletion of the evening. Dak would complete all of his last 12 official passes, as well as a touchdown pass to running back Lance Dunbar that was called back by a holding penalty. In a complete reversal of form from the previous Sunday night, Prescott was an almost machine-like 32 of 36 passing, leading Dallas to 449 offensive yards and a 26-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

What was the difference between this team and the team that was dominated by the Giants one week earlier? The Giants’ blueprint isn’t one that every team can follow. The Giants are skilled enough along the defensive line that they were able to compete with the Cowboy running game for the entire sixty minutes. They also have enough talented secondary depth that they could blanket the Cowboy receivers – giving them the opportunity to relentlessly blitz Prescott.

The Bucs did exactly none of those things. Cowboy running back Ezekiel Elliott struck for 5 yards on his initial carry and never slowed down. He gained 26 yards in Dallas’ first drive (which lasted 5 minutes and 14 seconds), and then gained 11 more in their second drive (that consumed another 5 minutes and 58 seconds). After battering their way to 78 rushing yards in the first half (48 by Elliott), they ground out another 107 in the second half (with Elliott gaining 111 yards in the second half alone on just 13 carries).

Coaches speak a lot about “complimentary football.” What happened in Dallas last Sunday night was a textbook example of this phenomenon.

The pounding Dallas running game took the spring out of the pass rush. With no pass rush, Tampa Bay’s soft zone coverages were repeatedly exposed. In his 32 for 36 night, Prescott only threw 3 passes more than 15 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage. Instead, he stood comfortably in his pocket and sliced up the Buc defense with a surgical short passing game. Tight end Jason Witten never caught a pass for more than 8 yards, but he caught all ten thrown in his direction for a total of 51 yards.

The easiest pickings were usually to whichever side cornerback Brent Grimes lined up, as he almost always left a gap of 8-12 yards between himself and the receiver he was supposed to be covering.

But the run-pass compliment led to an even greater offense-defense compliment. The Cowboy offense ran 71 plays and consumed 36 minutes and 4 seconds of playing time, forcing the Tampa Bay offense to struggle to find its rhythm. This was especially true during the game’s first half when the Buccaneer offense saw the field for only 24 plays and just 9 minutes and 40 seconds.

The one time that Tampa Bay did establish a little rhythm – getting the ball to open the second half – they did the things to the Cowboy secondary that most other teams have been doing to them. (Remembering that Dallas came into the weekend with the twenty-eighth ranked pass defense, allowing 69.7% of the passes thrown against them to be completed. They had only intercepted five passes the whole season until Sunday night when they picked off three.)

Over the course of Tampa Bay’s first two second half possessions, quarterback Jameis Winston led them on touchdown drives of 75 yards and 81 yards. After averaging just 4.4 yards per offensive play in the first half, Tampa Bay ripped into the Dallas defense in the third quarter at an average of 9.2 yards per play. As the trigger man, Winston exposed the Dallas pass defense to the tune of 8 of 11 for 147 yards, with both touchdowns coming on passes (in varying degrees of difficulty).

The Dallas defense re-asserted control in the fourth quarter. They began by sending a few blitzes, but soon settled back into their comfortable zone defenses. That was because they discovered that they only needed one man to generate more than sufficient pressure.

That man was David Irving.

At 6-7, there were moments last Sunday night that Irving was somewhat reminiscent of Too Tall Jones as he almost effortlessly moved offending offensive tackles out of his way on his pursuit of Winston. It’s easy to make too much of this one quarter – given that Tampa Bay had pretty much abandoned the run and they were playing with a backup right tackle (the one that lined up against Irving). Still, this undrafted player out of Iowa State (who is only 23) has the look of someone who could develop into a significant playmaker.

With two games to play, the Cowboys still stand as a formidable opponent. This game reinforces a couple of impressions. First, that you can’t beat the Cowboys unless you can slow the running game. Second, that the Cowboy pass defense is vulnerable, a weakness that a better opponent may eventually exploit. Three, the Cowboy run defense (ranked second in the league at the start of the week) may be a little overrated, but is still one of the best run defenses in the league.

I still have a feeling that this Cowboy team is ripe for a playoff upset. But it will have to be a team that can man up against the Cowboy offensive line.

The NFL Gamebook for this game can be found here; and the Football-Reference Summary is here.

Football

Titans and Patriots Wreak Havoc With the AFC West

I don’t know that I would use the word miracle, but as the fourth quarter commenced in bitterly cold Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday, a Titans’ victory seemed as unlikely as the Electoral College jumping ship and installing Hillary as the President. They trailed by ten points in a game that began at 1 measly degree above zero with a -19 degree wind chill. This was a heart-breaking situation for the Titans, whose playoff hopes pretty much depended on somehow coming into Kansas City and winning this game.

Even after the Titans had somehow narrowed the gap to 17-16, victory still seemed out of reach. With five seconds left. Kicker Ryan Succop lined up what would be a 53-yard field goal attempt into the teeth of that wind – kicking a football that was – by that time – a frozen rock.

Not surprisingly, the kick fell short, and with it Tennessee’s playoff hopes. But wait! Kansas City coach Andy Reid had called a timeout just before the kick. Given another chance, Succop’s kick just eased over the crossbar and sent the Titans into their toasty locker room with a 19-17 victory.

And all of a sudden, the AFC South is theirs to lose. And just as suddenly, the AFC West grows more chaotic.

With the victory, both Tennessee and Houston sit at 8-6 after the Texans fought their way past the Jacksonville Jaguars 21-20. Both teams are one game ahead of the 7-7 Indianapolis Colts. Houston holds the presumptive tie-breaker by virtue of a 27-20 victory over the Titans in Houston back in Week Four. This week, Tennessee goes into Jacksonville to play the 2-12 Jaguars while Houston hosts the 5-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals. Nothing in the NFL is a lock – and both the Jaguars and Bengals fought to the end last week. But if you are a team fighting for that playoff spot, you just can’t lose either of these games.

If both these teams make it to 9-6, they will face off in Week 17 – in Tennessee – to decide the division. With the Titans trending up and playing at home while the Texans are trending down the onus will be on the Texans – who have just recently benched their ex-starting quarterback – to win in Tennessee. It’s a tall order.

Even if they lose the division, though, the Texans playoff hopes won’t necessarily end there. At 9-7 they will be very much alive – thanks to the New England Patriots, who went into Sports Authority Field at Mile High and vanquished the Denver Broncos 16-3, likely ending the Broncos title defense.

As the day in the AFC West began, Kansas City held the division lead at 10-3. Oakland was also 10-3, but had lost both games against the Chiefs. While KC was losing, the Raiders survived against San Diego, jumping to 11-3 and taking command not only of the AFC West, but also of the number two seed and its coveted first round bye.

Denver, then 8-5 was still in a solid playoff position – although no longer a viable threat to win the AFC West, provided they could hold serve at home against a New England team that had much less at stake than the Broncos. Failing to do that dropped them to 8-6 along with Baltimore, Houston and Tennessee (and leaves them a game behind the 9-5 Dolphins).

Two victories will push them to 10-6 and a likely playoff berth, but to do that they will have to win in Kansas City and beat Oakland in Week 17. Too tough a task, I think, for a not very good Denver team. More likely is a split of those two games, leaving them as part of a growing logjam at 9-7.

If Houston beats Cincinnati but loses in Tennessee, they will also be 9-7.

Miami plays in Buffalo and at home against New England – easy to see them losing both of those games and finishing 9-7 as well.

If Buffalo beats Miami and then goes into New York and takes care of the Jets – which I can easily see them doing – they will also be 9-7. One of four such teams that will all be fighting for that final wildcard spot.

Under the NFL tie-breaking procedures in place for just such an eventuality, this mess would be sorted out in two phases. Phase one would put Buffalo and Miami through the division tie-breaker regimen (as only one team per division can be represented in the wildcard tie-breaking process). The survivor of the Buffalo-Miami process will then participate in the tie-breaking process with Houston and Denver.

Phase two will only take two steps, but the Buffalo/Miami contest will last until Step 5 of the division process. A Buffalo win over Miami in Buffalo will square the season series between the clubs (Step One); even up their division records – both will then be 3-3 in the division (Step Two); even their record against common opponents – both will be 7-5 in those games (Step Three); and even both conference records at 6-6 (Step Four). Step Five compares respective Strength of Victory Index. This is essentially adding up the wins of the teams beaten by Buffalo or Miami. Here, finally, the tie is broken as the teams that Buffalo has beaten (New England [14], Miami [9], Arizona [6.5], Cincinnati [6.5], Los Angeles [5], NY Jets [4], Jacksonville [2] and San Francisco [1] – using their projected final season victory total, with ties counting for .5 wins) total 48 wins. Miami’s nine victims (Pittsburgh [11], Buffalo [9], San Diego [7], Arizona [6.5], Los Angeles [5], NY Jets [4] twice and San Francisco [1]) total up to 47.5.

Plugging Buffalo into the wildcard tie-breaker, the first step is a head-to-head sweep. This is a situation where one of the teams would have either beaten both the other two teams or lost to both the other two teams. Denver did beat Houston, 27-9, but neither team played Buffalo. So this tie will go to Step Two – Conference Record. There, Houston gains the advantage. Splitting their last two games will give them a 7-5 conference record, better than the 6-6 mark that both Buffalo and Denver would compile under this scenario.

It’s complex – and a lot of things can change in two weeks – but with the finish line in sight I think Tennessee and Houston hold slight advantages and that Denver will probably be outside looking in come playoff time.

One huge caveat is the last game of the season between the Dolphins and Patriots. It is entirely possible that New England will have the conference’s top seed wrapped up by the time they play that last game. If that is true, and New England plays the game “under wraps,” then the Dolphins chances of winning that game and going into the playoffs at 10-6 improve dramatically.

In the NFC, things have been following a lot closer to the script. The only shift that I would think to make in the NFC came as a result of Washington’s Monday Night defeat at the hands of the Carolina Panthers. Washington is now 7-6-1, but finishes the season with winnable games in Chicago against the 3-win Bears and a home game against the Giants. New York sits at 10-4 and is on a good run, but they don’t impress me as good enough to beat Washington in Washington. If the Redskins finish at 9-6-1, they will still finish ahead of everyone at 9-7, but will now probably have to settle for the second wildcard spot, yielding the first to the Giants.