Archives for July 2017

Contemplating the June Lineup Changes

Before the 13-16 June completely fades from memory (and with not nearly enough time this morning to dissect last night’s 14-6 victory (box score), I thought we might review the lineup shuffling that occurred throughout June and make some generalizations about how this will play out.

Leadoff

Dexter Fowler, of course, was the leadoff hitter as June started. He hit leadoff for 6 games, with the Cardinals losing 5 of them. Matt Carpenter took over as leadoff hitter, and hit in that spot for 22 games – with St Louis winning 11 and losing 11. The other start belonged to Tommy Pham – an 8-2 win over Cincinnati on June 26. For the season, St Louis is 18-30 (.375) scoring 3.63 runs per game when Fowler hits leadoff. They are now 12-12, scoring 5.79 runs per game with Carpenter there. Kolten Wong has hit leadoff 7 times this year. The Cards are 7-0 in those games, scoring 6.86 runs per game.

Batting Second

Fowler landed at second, for a while, before he was sidelined with his own injury. He ended up in the two spot for 13 games in June, with the team going 7-6 and scoring 5.77 runs per game in those games.

Finding options after Fowler, though, hasn’t been easy. The team was 3-6 with Pham batting second and 1-4 with Carpenter before the shuffle. Randal Grichuk was put in the second spot for a couple of games. The Cards scored 18 runs in those two games, winning both.

For the season, Aledmys Diaz has hit here the most – 23 games during which the Cards have gone 10-13 scoring just 4.04 runs per game. They are now 6-15 with Pham batting there. For the season, they are 7-0 scoring 6.86 runs per game when Grichuk bats second.

Batting Third

Stephen Piscotty settled into the third spot during June, hitting there for 25 of the 29 games. The record in those games was 12-13.

Carpenter had hit there for most of the season – 44 games, during which St Louis was 21-23. Piscotty has now been there for 30 games this year, with a 15-15 record.

Cleanup

Jedd Gyorko took over this spot in the order quite early this season, and hasn’t relinquished it. He hit fourth 25 times in the 29 games in June, with St Louis going 12-13 with him there and 1-3 without him. For the season, St Louis is 29-28 when Gyorko bats fourth, and 11-14 when it’s somebody else.

Batting Fifth

Yadier Molina had some health issues during the month, but still hit fifth in 20 of the 29 June games. The Cards scored a healthy 5.2 runs per game in those games, but won only 9 of them. They were 4-5 with someone else batting fifth.

Fifth has been Molina’s spot for most of the year – 51 of the first 82 games. St Louis is scoring 4.73 runs in those games, although with just a 23-28 record (.451). Nine other players have hit fifth this season. The team is 17-14 with any of them hitting fifth.

Batting Sixth

Removed from the second spot in the order, Diaz hit here for 11 games in June before moving on to Memphis – leading St Louis to a 4-7 record. Apart from Aledmys, Tommy Pham showed up there 8 times – leading the Cards to a 4-4 record. Seven other batters hit sixth last month, with St Louis going 5-5 in those games.

Diaz has hit sixth more than anyone else for the season as well. In 25 games with Aledmys batting sixth, St Louis is 12-13, scoring 5.28 runs per game. Pham has been there 11 times this year – with the team going 6-5 in those games, scoring 4.18 runs per game. Molina has also hit sixth 10 times this year (5-5, 3.80 rpg). Ten others have combined to go 17-19 in the sixth slot.

Batting Seventh

Of the seven players who batted seventh in June, only Paul DeJong hit there more than 10 times – although the team was only 5-8 in his 13 games at number 8. No one else hit there more than 3 times last month, but the other six combined to go 8-8.

For the season, DeJong has now hit seventh 17 times, with a 7-10 record to show for it. Hitting there most frequently this season was Grichuk, who hit seventh 23 times before going down to Memphis. Those results could have been better, as St Louis was 8-15 (.348) in those games, scoring 3.96 runs per game.

Of the players who have hit seventh at least 5 times, the ones who have had the most success are Tommy Pham (6-1, 7.57 runs per game) and Kolten Wong (6-0, 5.67 runs per game).

Batting Eighth

Through 29 June games, eight players hit eighth for the Cards, none of them for more than the 8 games that Eric Fryer started. Fryer led the team to a 4-4 record. The other 7 combined to go 9-12.

For the season, Fryer has now hit eighth 13 times. The team has gone 8-5 scoring 5.23 runs per game. Kolten Wong has still hit eighth more than anyone else this season. In spite of the fact that the Cardinal record seems to revolve more closely around Wong than anyone else (24-19 .558 when Wong starts and 16-23 .410 when he doesn’t), the team is only 10-16 (.385) when he bats eighth.

Summary

Even though the Cards have now won 7 of 9, there still doesn’t seem to be much settling in the order. Nobody has hit in the same spot for all nine games. The most settled have been Piscotty at number three, Gyorko at four, and Molina at five. All three have started in these spots for 8 of the last 9 games.

After them, Carpenter has hit first in 7 of the 9 games – with the Cards going 5-2 in those games and 2-0 in the two games that Pham has hit first.

When not batting first, Pham has hit in the second spot 6 times (4-2), and DeJong has hit seventh 6 times (5-1). The sixth and eighth spots in the order are still a grab bag.

With the roster far from settled, it can’t be a surprise to anyone that the batting order will be in a continuous state of flux for the foreseeable future.

On some level, you could almost say the Cards have more quality players than they have lineup spots for. This afternoon, Carpenter will move back to second to give Luke Voit another start. There are also quality players like Greg Garcia and Jose Martinez who need to see their names on the lineup card with some frequency.

It’s a delicate juggling act – and one that will only get more complicated as Fowler and Wong return to active duty.

Baseball

Nationals Come After Martinez Early

One of baseball’s axioms about dealing with elite pitchers is that if you don’t get to them early, you might not get to them at all. There are several variables that the starting pitcher will have to adjust for as he begins the game. Mounds are apparently all different. The strike zone of each individual umpire is quite different. Usually, the hitters will come to the plate with some kind of approach or game plan which may not be anticipated and may lead to early success. So, there are some adjustments to be made in that first inning or so – which opens a window of opportunity for the hitters.

The spectrum of this axiom was on full display last night in the finale of the season series between the Cardinals and the Washington Nationals. The Cardinal offense didn’t come close to getting Washington ace Max Scherzer early. He struck out the first four batters he faced and five in the first two innings. And as it turned out, they never did get him – Scherzer finished his evening after 7 innings and 100 pitches, giving St Louis no runs on only 2 hits, while striking out 12.

Washington, on the other hand, jumped Cardinal starter Carlos Martinez for 2 first inning runs, and kept him out of kilter for the rest of an uncommonly short five inning outing, on its way to a relatively easy 7-2 victory (box score).

Carlos Martinez

Coming off of an excellent June, when he posted a 2.43 ERA in 5 starts – and riding an even longer streak of 11 quality starts in 12 games, Martinez gave 5 runs in 5 innings. His evening, though, really fell on two pitches to National’s superstar outfielder Bryce Harper that most hitters would had turned into easy fly outs. Harper got a little more of them than might be expected, sailing both into the right-field seats for two-run home runs.

Last night’s game marks the seventh time in Carlos’ 17 starts that the Cards were shutout while Martinez was on the mound. Carlos has gotten fewer than 3 support runs 11 times in his 17 games.

Over the course of what has looked at times like a break-out season, Carlos has shown a tendency to wilt in the sixth (6.75 ERA) and seventh (7.71 ERA). But he has been mostly terrific before those innings – if he can make it through the first inning unscathed. From the second through the fifth innings (even after giving up three runs in last night’s third inning), Carlos has a 1.99 ERA and a .192 batting average against in those innings. Harper’s second home run was the first Carlos has surrendered in the third inning all season.

On the other hand, Bryce’s first inning home run was the third first-inning home run off of Carlos (in 17 first innings). His first-inning ERA now sits at 3.71.

John Brebbia

If you waited until the ninth inning, you would have seen John Brebbia out there mopping up. He gave a hit and a walk (intentional), but got through the inning – his first appearance in five days – unscathed. Over his last 4 games, batters are 2 for 16 (.125) against him. For the season, John has a 2.35 ERA over 15.1 innings, during which batters are hitting .148 against him.

As the back of the bullpen was shuffled over the last two series – and while Seung-hwan Oh and Trevor Rosenthal are still struggling – and their role reversals haven’t resolved their struggles – I was hoping that Brebbia might get higher leveraged opportunities. Instead, he seems to have been buried deeper in the depth chart.

Yadier Molina

So, Max Scherzer probably isn’t the pitcher you want to see on the mound when you are riding a 16-game hitting streak. Yadier Molina finished his evening – as did many of the Cardinals – 0 for 4, bringing an end to his streak. Over the course of the 16 games, Yadi hit .333 (21 for 63) with 3 home runs and 12 runs batted in.

Randal Grichuk

Hot off his three-hit, five RBI game in the finale of the Arizona series, Randal Grichuk finished up his 1 for 13 (.077) series against Washington with an 0-for-4 night. He struck out 3 times last night, and 6 times during the series. Since his hot start after his recall, Grichuk is now hitting .229 (8 for 35) in his post-Memphis appearances.

NoteBook

All season, the Cardinals have been less than dynamic in the first inning. While last night’s three-up, three struck out was an extreme example, those strikeouts did leave the Cards with a .217 team batting average in the first inning. Dexter Fowler (11 for 55) and Matt Carpenter (12 for 60) are both batting .200 for the season in the first inning – although with 13 walks, Carpenter’s on base percentage is .342 in that inning.

In the eighth inning, Tommy Pham completed the scoring by flicking Enny Romero’s up-and-away fastball over the right-field wall. The home run was Pham’s tenth of the season – a career high. It was also (after 26 games and 101 plate appearances) his first home run at Busch this season. He carries a .218/.307/.264 batting line at home. He is at .344/.435/.688 in 108 plate appearances on the road. For his career, in 257 plate appearances at home, Tommy has 5 home runs and a .219/.307/.335 batting line. He has been to the plate 310 times on the road, where he has hit 19 home runs with a .293/.382/.574 batting line.

Pham’s home run leaves Stephen Piscotty (121 PA) and Greg Garcia (74 PA) as the only Cardinals with 50 or more plate appearances at home who have yet to reach the fences at Busch. Piscotty has 6 road home runs and Garcia 1.

Baseball

Beware the Birds of Ambush

In claiming their third consecutive victory, the Cardinals are making a bit of a habit of “the ambush inning.”

Wednesday night, it was the fourth inning. After Arizona’s Zack Godley set down the first 9 Cardinals to face him that night, St Louis ambushed him in the fourth. The first five batters to face him that inning reached – three of them scoring. The Cards would play from ahead all day, winning finally by a 4-3 score as Arizona’s ninth-inning rally came up short.

Thursday, it was the fourth, again. Diamondback starter Patrick Corbin faced one over the minimum through the first three innings, but the Cardinals jumped him in the fourth. Again, the first five batters reached, although this time only two managed to score. That game ended up a 10-4 Cardinal victory, although it was much more back and forth than that score would indicate.

Then, last night, after missing a big opportunity in the first, the Cardinals ambushed struggling National’s right-hander Tanner Roark in the third. This time, only the first four batters reached, but three of them scored. The Cards never looked back on their way to a comfortable 8-1 victory (box score).

From time to time this season, the Cardinals have been a good on-base team. Getting runners on base puts pressure on everybody. Getting runners on with nobody out is even better, as it gives the offense many more options in getting that runner home.

I don’t have numbers league-wide for this, but charting the Cardinals and their opponents, runners that reach base with no one out end up scoring between 45-50% of the time. Over the recent little surge, where St Louis has won 5 of the last 6, they have excelled at this aspect of the game. Cardinals batting with nobody out are reaching base at a .443 clip, and after they reach, they are scoring 56% of the time.

Last night, 7 of the 15 Cardinals who came to the plate with no one out reached base, and 4 of them scored.

This has certainly helped open up the offense, which – thanks to the late surge – finished June scoring 147 runs in 29 games (5.07 runs per game). They have scored 7.17 runs per game over the last 6 games (43 runs) during which time they have hit .282 as a team, with a .380 on base percentage.

Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina has been very much in the middle of the offensive turnaround. He has played in 5 of the last 6 games, hitting .400 (8 for 20) with 7 runs batted in. This, of course, is part of a longer stretch of success for Molina, who pushed his hitting streak to 15 games with his two hits last night. During the streak, Molina is hitting .328 (20 for 61), with 3 home runs and 12 runs batted in. He finished June with a .296 batting average.

His third-inning two-run single that started the scoring held up as the game-winning hit. It is Yadi’s fifth game-winning hit this season. Among Cardinals, only Dexter Fowler has more – Dexter has 7.

Molina was 1-for-1 batting with no one out, and 1 for 2 batting with one out. The only time he hit with two out last night, he lined out to center to end the first. Over the course of the season, Yadi is hitting .320 (56 for 176) when batting with less than two outs. He is now 12 for 76 (.158) when hitting with two outs. Of his 35 runs batted in this season, only 6 have come with two out.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko had what is starting to become a typical night for him. He singled, doubled, walked, drove in a run and scored twice. Jedd has now hit safely in 6 of his last 7 games (getting 2 hits in 3 of them). During this stretch, Jedd has come to the plate 28 times, collecting 4 singles, 4 doubles, 1 home run, 9 runs batted in, six walks, 1 sacrifice fly, and only 1 strikeout. That is a .429/.536/.762 batting line. Gyorko’s season average is back over .300 (.302) as he finished June with a .290 average (27 for 93) with 4 home runs and a team-leading 18 runs batted in.

While striking out only once over his last 7 games, Jedd has now drawn a walk in 5 straight contests, and in 9 of his last 10 games. All of this – the hitting the ball with authority to right field, the patience at the plate – this is a different Jedd Gyorko than we saw last year.

Gyorko singled off of Roark’s hand as part of that ambush third inning – it was his only at bat of the game with nobody out. He is now hitting .318 this year with no one out (35 for 110). That is the best average among season-long regulars. Kolten Wong is hitting .407 with no one out, but he has missed a good chunk of the season with injuries. Paul DeJong also doesn’t have a starter’s quantity of at bats, but he is hitting .342 with nobody out.

Tommy Pham

Another one of the igniters of the offense recently is Tommy Pham. He brought the crowd to its feet with a stellar defensive play on the first hitter of the game, and followed going 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored. Tommy has a .350 batting average and a .480 on base percentage over the last six games. Moreover, Pham has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, hitting .326 in that span (14 for 43) with 3 home runs, 7 runs batted in, 3 stolen bases, 11 runs scored and a .535 slugging percentage.

I would hate to be the one filling out the lineup card that doesn’t include Tommy Pham’s name.

It took a review to confirm it, but Pham beat out a two-out, seventh-inning infield hit that loaded the bases. Pham now has a .414 on base percentage this year when batting with two outs.

Another Quality Start

Mike Leake’s excellent 8 innings (1 run 5 hits), gave the Cardinals six consecutive quality starts for the first time since mid-May, and 8 in the last 9 games. Entering tonight, St Louis has yet to string together seven consecutive quality starts.

In winning 5 of the last 6, the starting rotation has contributed a 4-0 record, a 2.82 ERA, and a .235 batting average against. As much fun as it’s been watching the offense of late, St Louis’ long-term success is tied to the effectiveness of its starters.

Mike Leake

After a four-start dry spell, Mike Leake has put together three excellent starts in a row. At the point where you might have begun to wonder if the early season Leake was a mirage, he has given the team 20 innings over these three starts, allowing 5 earned runs on 14 hits – a 2.25 ERA with a .215/.284/.292 batting line against. Of the 20 batters who put the ball in play against Mike last night, 17 hit it on the ground (4 of them into double plays).

The double plays proved to be quite important, as Mike is still showing a tendency to walk batters with no one out. Last night, two of his three walks came with no one out. Over his shaky month of June, 8 of his 12 walks came with no one out. Five of the 8 ended up scoring. For the season, Mike has only issued 13 no-out walks – with 8 of those coming home to roost.

As Aledmys Diaz Plays in Memphis

I suppose that it is possible that many Cardinal fans aren’t sure what to make of the demotion of Aledmys Diaz. Several columnists and bloggers attending on the Cardinals have treated this event as some kind of watershed moment in Diaz’ career as it relates his future as a Cardinal.

And I can understand the reaction. Most times in most organizations the demotion of a player who had been an All Star the year before would be a fairly catastrophic event. But not in St Louis. What Cardinal management has done over the last couple of years – and what they are seemingly becoming more comfortable doing – is a kind of re-definition of how the minor leagues have been traditionally used in the past.

In the past, the minor leagues have been a kind of finishing school. A raw talent comes out of high school or college that is not quite ready to succeed against major league competition. So he is sent to one of the myriad of minor league teams to get regular playing time and learn his craft.

And then, at some point, he “graduates,” if you will, from the minors. It may take him a few trips back and forth as he makes the adjustment, but at the point where he becomes a regular on the big league team, he has become a “major league” ballplayer and ceases to be known as a “minor league” player.

At this point, it is assumed that the minors have no more to teach him, and that he has nothing left to prove there. So, at this point, for this player to be sent back to the minors for anything other than a rehab assignment would commonly be viewed as a humiliating moment, signaling an absolute loss of confidence in that player and a permanent change of direction by the organization.

Last year, when the Cardinals did this to both Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk at the same time, that’s how it read to me. The Cardinals had finally given up on two talented by frustratingly inconsistent players, and were moving forward with other options at second base and center field. As it turned out, nothing could be further from the truth. Both players were – and are – very much a part of the Cardinals’ future plans.

The change in philosophy was even more evident earlier this spring when Grichuk was sent down again. He wasn’t being removed from the scene and dumped in the minors in the hopes that maybe he would figure things out. He worked with a specialist – a strategist, I think they called him – a bat whisperer, if you will – to try to unlock the star player that was encumbered by the collection of bad habits and overthinking that Randal Grichuk had become.

I don’t know if there are other organizations out there that are doing this, but what the Cardinals have figured out is that the minor league system is good for more than just teaching prospects on the way up. It can also serve as a kind of clinic for major league players. It’s a place where they can get specialized, individualized attention. Where areas of weakness can be addressed and where performance can be enhanced away from the glare of the major leagues. A demotion like this isn’t something I think you’d see in response to a little slump (0 for 12 or something). But if a player becomes lost, it becomes a viable option.

And lost is an apt description of Diaz. In all facets of his game, he was not himself. I expect that, like Wong and Grichuk, Aledmys is still very much a part of the Cardinal future. But not the way he was playing now. My expectation is that people will now work with Aledmys – rebuild him, even – and that sometime before August he will be back at shortstop, and looking more like the Diaz we remembered from 2016.

The broader message to the rest of the Cardinal roster is that if you start to struggle and you still have options left, you won’t necessarily continue to struggle at the major league level. This management is becoming more and more comfortable with writing you a prescription for the Memphis Clinic.

This kind of attention and work can’t possibly be given by the major league team. The season won’t stop and wait for this. But the minor league setup is structured to do this very thing. Kolten Wong came back a better player. The sample size on Randal Grichuk is still pretty small, but it looks like he may have made a breakthrough as well.

There is no reason not to expect similar improvement from Diaz.