Archives for September 2018

The Cardinals’ post season chances were not completely extinguished during their disappointing 2-1 loss to Milwaukee last night (box score).  But if, in fact, St Louis does miss the post season for a third straight year – and that is more likely than not – this game (and, in fact, this series) will linger in the memory.

In particular, history will remember the stumble.  Headed around third with the potential tying run with two outs in the eighth inning, pinch runner Adolis Garcia fell and was easily out at home.  The throw was off line enough that it is fairly certain that Garcia would have scored.

Most of the post-game conversation centered on the stumble, but the bigger story was right on the scoreboard, under the “Hits” column, where the Cardinals totaled two for the night.

St Louis finished the Brewer series with just 9 runs on 18 hits, hitting just .189 for the series.  This continues a month-long trend that has seen the Cards fade in the batting average category.  They have now hit .237 in 24 games this month.  After working so hard all season to climb back up to the .250 mark in team batting average, after last night’s game the team has slipped back down to .249 on the season.

But the result is even more microcosmic – if you will – as it ended the home season (at least the regular season portion of it).  Cardinal hitters weren’t really as dominated as it seemed.  I counted 9 line drives hit by Cardinal batters, only one of which turned into a hit (Paul DeJong’s fourth-inning double). There are days you hit 9 line drives and only one of them ends as an out.  Factor in the stumble and the fact that Milwaukee’s game-winning hit was a flare over third, and, well, it was one of those games.

Nonetheless, the one run on two hits is the kind of result that is becoming increasingly common at Busch.

Home Not So Sweet Home

Old Cardinal fans – and I now qualify as one of those – will speak reverently about the mid-80’s and the Whitey Ball era.  The Whitey Herzog Cardinals had great success as a team perfectly tailored to its ballpark.  The spacious dimensions bothered them not at all, as few of them were truly long-ball  threats.  These were the Cardinals of Vince Coleman, Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith that raced across the steaming mid-summer AstroTurf stealing hits of all varieties, while slashing line drives into the spacious gaps (which were even more spacious at old Busch) and flying around the bases with reckless abandon.

In recent years, as the Cardinals have assembled a collection of talented hitters – almost all of whom are home run threats – Busch Stadium is starting to work against them.

Finishing September 6-9 at home, the Cards hit just .231 at Busch.  They hit 11 home runs in those 15 home games.  With three road games left (this weekend in Wrigley) St Louis has hit 19 road home runs this month in just 9 games.  They have averaged 6.00 runs per game on the road this month and just 4.67 at home.

Since the All-Star Break, the Cards have played 32 road games and 33 home games.  They have hit 54 home runs in those 32 road games, hit .268 as a team, and scored 5.59 runs per game.  In the 33 games at Busch they have hit 33 home runs, hit .244, and scored 4.73 runs per game.

The full season totals reveal that these trends have lasted for the full 159 games so far.  With the home season over, the 81 game totals read 351 runs scored (4.33 per game) 83 home runs hit, and a .245 team batting average.  With three games left in the road season, St Louis has already scored 397 runs (5.09 per game and 46 more than they’ve scored at home), hit 122 home runs (39 more than at Busch) and carry a .254 team batting average.

They finished the season with a 43-38 record at home.  They already have 44 road wins with three games left.  Even though last year’s team had a better record at home than on the road, they still scored more runs away from home (402) than at home (359).  The home run differential was smaller, but still indicative – they hit 106 on the road and 90 at home.  In 2016 the numbers were 424 runs and 121 home runs on the road to 355 runs and 104 home runs at home.  You have to go back to 2014 to find the last time the Cards scored more runs (332-287) and hit more home runs (57-48) at Busch than they did on the road.  That was a very different team, featuring only two players with 20 or more homers.  Jhonny Peralta hit 21 and Matt Holliday hit 20 that year.

While I know this reads like a call to move the fences in, that is not my intent.  What these numbers truly portend is the Cardinal’s increasing reliance on the home run for offense.  All I’m really saying is that a team that plays in a spacious home park needs to diversify.  Situational hitting.  Better base running.  Maybe more contact and less strikeouts.  That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

Otherwise the Busch will continue to be a disadvantage to the Cards.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter drew two walks and came around to score the only Cardinal run of the evening.  He was otherwise 0-for-2 on the night including a strikeout.  In 23 September games, Carpenter has drawn 18 walks.  But in 82 at bats now has only 14 hits – 10 singles, 3 doubles and 1 home run.  His September average fades to .171, with a .244 slugging percentage.

Carpenter is one of those Cardinals who has struggled most notably at his home ballpark.  During what has generally been a break-out second half for Carp, he has managed just 4 home runs at Busch, while hitting 13 on the road. 

For the season, the National League’s leading home run hitter has hit 13 home runs in his home ballpark – while hitting .240.  Away from Busch, Matt Carpenter has had 329 plate appearances, resulting in 27 singles, 26 doubles, 23 home runs, 57 runs, 50 runs batted in, 52 walks (10 intentional), and a .278/.395/.626 batting line.

Yadier Molina

St Louis is also still waiting for Yadier Molina to lock in again.  Hitless in 3 at bats last night, Yadi is hitting just .200 (9 for 45) since returning from his elbow injury 13 games ago.  Yadi has now gone 6 games without drawing a walk, and has only 1 walk in his last 12 games.

Add Yadi’s name to the list of hitters who might very well be glad to be done with Busch.  Molina finished his home season with 239 plate appearances in his home ballpark.  They achieved just 36 singles, 12 doubles, 3 home runs, 23 runs batted in, 12 walks, 35 strikeouts, 1 hit-by-pitch, 2 sacrifice flies, and 7 double plays grounded into – a .228/.268/.321 batting line.

Yadi has been a different hitter on the road.  He is 69 for 228 in his road games (.303), his hits including 8 doubles and 17 home runs. He has 51 runs batted in in 59 road games, where he slugs .561.

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong was also 0-for-3 in last night’s game.  He is now 4 for 17 (.235) over his last 6 games with no extra-base hits.

Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader’s September average has also fallen to .227 (17 for 75) after his 0-for-3 last night.  Bader hasn’t drawn a walk, now, in 5 games, and hasn’t stolen a base in 13 games.

Bader finished his first full season at home hitting .250 (49 for 196) with 2 home runs.  Away from home, Harrison is 49 for 172 (.285) with 7 doubles, a triple, and 10 home runs – a .512 slugging percentage.

John Gant

Ever eager to get his bullpen in the game, Mike Shildt ran out to get John Gant after he had secured the first out in the fifth.  Although he walked 3 – a recurring issue – he finished (possibly) his season on a pretty strong note, allowing only 1 run.  In the most significant start of his young career, Johnny did well enough.

His previous two starts could have gone better.  He was blown out in a damaging loss to Los Angeles in mid-September, and lasted less than three innings his last time out against San Francisco – a game the Cards came back to win.

These struggles in September have weakened his position in the Cardinals’ long-range plans, but his year has – overall – been a success.  Since his last return from Memphis, John pitched in 19 games – 16 as a starter – going 6-4 with a 3.12 ERA.  He did walk 48 batters in those 89.1 innings.

Walks From the Bullpen

The walks from the bullpen are starting to pile up, now.  Cardinal relievers walked 5 more in 4.2 innings last night.  Amazingly, only one of those walks scored – but it was the run that beat them.

The Cardinal bullpen has now issued 62 walks in 95 innings this month.  Even allowing for the fact that 10 of those were intentional, that is still 4.93 un-intentional walks every 9 innings.  In the season’s second half, the bullpen has walked more batters (138) than the rotation (122), even though they have pitched more than 100 fewer innings.  They have averaged 4.72 un-intentional walks every nine innings.

Chasen Shreve

Chasen Shreve’s entire evening focused on facing one left-handed batter – Christian Yelich.  Shreve threw 5 pitches, 4 of them balls, and then watched from the dugout as Yelich scored the winning run.  Shreve has now walked 9 batters in his 13.1 Cardinal innings – 6.08 per game.  His on-base percentage against is now risen to .367.

Dakota Hudson

Dakota Hudson pitched through 1.2 innings without allowing a run of his own.  He did, however, surrender the Texas Leaguer that plated Shreve’s run.  With that, 8 of the last 11 runners that Hudson has inherited have come home to score.

Dakota also walked a batter in the next inning.  In his first 27 major league innings, Hudson has a 2.67 ERA and a .191 batting average against.  But Dakota has now walked 17 batters in those innings (5.67 per nine innings).

Hudson’s style does seem to adapt well to Busch.  In his rookie season, Dakota finished allowing no runs in his 14.1 home innings with a .149 batting average against.

Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez also walked two batters in his two innings at the end of the game.  Martinez has pitched 17.1 innings in 14 relief appearances.  He has now walked 11 in those innings, but is also 4-4 in save opportunities with a 1.56 ERA, a .186 batting average against, and 19 strikeouts.

NoteBook

At 3:16, last night’s game was the fifteenth consecutive Cardinal game to last at least three hours.  The streak includes one game that checked in at exactly three hours (a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh on September 12).  The longest of the streak was the 3:49 that it took the Cards to lose the first game of this series to Milwaukee on Monday night.  The 15 games have averaged 3:20:12.

As the St Louis Cardinals set up for their final home game of the season (at least of the regular season), the home stretch can only be looked back on with a sense of loss.

On September 5, the Cards had just finished taking 2 of 3 from Washington – with Carlos Martinez earning his first save as the new Cardinal closer.  They were 78-62 at that point, they trailed the Chicago Cubs by just 4.5 games, and held the second Wild Card spot, trailing Milwaukee by just a half game.

Ahead of them were 3 road games against a downtrodden Detroit club.  Following that, the Cards had 13 of their next 16 at home, finishing the season with three potentially meaningful games in Chicago against the Cubs.  Everything was set up before them.

The reality failed to match the anticipation.  They began by losing 2 of 3 in Detroit and then lost 4 of 7 in the first home stand.  Their chances swelled when they won 2 of 3 in Atlanta, but faded again as the team went only 3-2 in the first 5 games of their final home stand.  The losses were especially stinging – losses to Milwaukee in the first two games of a critical series – the last one, last night’s 12-4 battering (box score).

They have responded, so far, going 9-9 with this opportunity.  They are still 4.5 games behind the Cubs, but with only 4 games left, there is not enough season left to catch them.  They have fallen, now 4 games behind the Brewers for that first WildCard spot, and have slipped a half-game behind Colorado for the last playoff spot.

The question, for tonight and for the last three games in Wrigley, is how will this young team respond?  With an opportunity still before them and four difficult games left, how will this young team respond to this latest adversity?

Loss Leads to Loss

One of the most glaring differences between the September Cardinals and the Post-All-Star-Break Cardinals is their ability to respond to a loss.

From the beginning of the season’s second half until September 1, the Cardinals lost consecutive games just once (July 22 in Chicago and July 23 in Cincinnati).  They lost a total of 13 games during that span, and were 12-1 the next game.

September began with a 3-game losing streak, and the trend hasn’t stopped.  The current streak is the fourth losing streak of at least 2 games this month.  The Cards – who have already lost twice as many games as they did in all of August – are just 4-7 this month following a loss.

At the center of the slide has been the pitching staff.  After leading the charge through August, the pitchers have struggled greatly in the season’s final month.  After last night’s melt down, the team’s September ERA sits at 4.82.  The starters have been bad enough – they have thrown just 6 quality starts in 23 games with a 4.69 ERA.  The bullpen has been even worse.  They have served up more home runs (14) than the starters (13) even though they have pitched 26.2 fewer innings.  The September bullpen ERA is now 4.98 with a .282 batting average against.

Instead of responding after a loss, the pitching staff has performed worse in their opportunities to halt a losing streak.  In 11 after-loss games in September, the pitching staff boasts a 5.22 ERA.  In their last 100 such innings, Cardinal pitchers have served up 17 home runs, 23 doubles and 2 triples.  Opposing hitters, in games after a Cardinal loss, are slugging .469 against St Louis.

As with the month in general, bad starting pitching (only 3 quality starts and a 4.97 ERA) has been trumped by worse relief pitching (5.47 ERA and an opponent’s batting line of .275/.387/.519).  In games after a loss this month, Cardinal relievers are walking 5.66 and allowing 2.01 home runs per nine innings.  In these games the bullpen has accounted for almost as many innings (49.1) as the starters (50.2).

As much, perhaps, as any other number set, these numbers tell the story of the disappointing month.

Austin Gomber

While I remain very high on the future of left-handed curveballer Austin Gomber, the truth remains that in these critical September games, he hasn’t been a part of the answer.  After his struggles last night, Austin hasn’t seen the fifth inning in two of his last three starts.

Gomber has had particular difficulty in the stopper role.  He has a 5.68 ERA this season in games after a loss.  In the second half, Austin is 2-2 in 7 games (6 starts) after a loss with a 6.52 ERA and a .302 batting average against.

John Brebbia

In a season of turmoil in the Cardinal bullpen, John Brebbia has emerged as a significant – if under the radar – contributor.  He helped hold the team semi-close last night with 1.2 innings of scoreless, hitless relief.  Over his last 13 appearances, John has pitched 13 innings, allowing just 1 run (0.69 ERA) on only 7 hits while striking out 19.  The last 48 batters to face John are hitting just .159 with a .250 slugging percentage.

For the season, Brebbia has appeared in 20 games after a Cardinal loss, totaling 24.1 innings.  He has a 2.59 ERA in those games, and a .222 batting average against.

Last night was also the tenth time this season the Cards asked John for more than one inning.  To this point he has proved himself capable of multiple innings.  In his 10.1 “additional” innings, Brebbia has allowed 3 runs (2.61 ERA) and only 8 hits (.205 batting average).  A slight decline in strikeouts (9 in those 10.1 innings) is the only evidence of increased difficulty.

Mike Mayers

The game began to seriously spin out of reach once Mike Mayers came into the game.  Mike’s season just will not turn around.  In the course of just 14 pitches, Mike gave up two more runs on a single and a home run, extending a 7-4 deficit into a 9-4 deficit.

In his last 8 appearances (totaling 5 innings) Mayers has taken damage to the tune of 8 runs on 15 hits including 2 home runs.  The last 33 batters he has faced hold a batting line of .500/.531/.833.  His second-half ERA has now risen to 6.41, as batters have hit .321 and slugged .556 against him with 4 home runs in just 19.2 innings.

Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil then one-upped Mayers by serving up a three-run home run in the eighth.  This has been another lost season for Cecil.  His second half has been particularly devastating.  In 15 games since the break, Brett has pitched 9.2 eventful innings that have seen 16 runs on 17 hits including 4 home runs.  He has also walked 10 batters in those innings.  The batting line against him in the second half is a sobering .370/.482/.674.

Marcell Ozuna

With three singles last night, Marcell Ozuna pushed his second half batting average up to .300 (66 for 220).  He is hitting .310 this month (27 for 87).

Jose Martinez

Jose Martinez stayed hot.  With a single and a double, Jose now has three consecutive two-hit games.  He has hit in 6 of his last 7, getting two hits in 5 of the six.  He is 11 for his last 27 (.407).  Five of the hits are for extra-bases (4 doubles and a home run), so Martinez is slugging .667 during the streak.

Since the break, Jose is hitting .322 (65 for 202).

Matt Carpenter

For all the hope that Matt Carpenter would go on another hitting tear, it hasn’t materialized yet.  Hitless in three at bats last night, Carp is hitting .175 in September (14 for 80).  He has 1 home run and a .250 slugging percentage this month.

Paul DeJong

Among the casualties last night was Paul DeJong’s 8-game hitting streak.  Paul was 0-for-3 with a sacrifice fly, and is still hitting just .223 for the second half.  But he hit .324 (11 for 34) during the eight games, with 3 doubles and 2 home runs.  He drove in 7 runs and slugged .588 in those 8 games.  He had also hit safely in 15 of his previous 16 games, hitting .306 in those games.  Very encouraging signs.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko had a tough night.  His 0-for-3 included a strikeout and a double-play grounder.  Games after a loss have not been his specialty.  He has played in 54 of them, now, with a .234 average (36 for 154).

Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader also had a nice hitting streak stopped – his had been a seven-game streak, during which he hit .381 (8 for 21) with 3 doubles and 2 home runs – an .810 slugging percentage.

After five excellent innings last night, Jack Flaherty carried a 1-1 tie into the sixth inning against Milwaukee.  With the season hanging in the balance, Jack’s command suddenly abandoned him.  After he retired Lorenzo Cain on a ground ball, he walked Christian Yelich, hit Jesus Aguilar with a pitch, and then walked Travis Shaw – loading the bases.  Big boy hitters Ryan Braun and Mike Moustakas were due up.  Flaherty had struggled a bit in this inning, but had still pitched a strong game.  He had thrown 93 pitches to this point, and could legitimately been given the chance to work his way out of the mess.

But manager Mike Shildt, who believes fervently in his bullpen – despite the recent results – hustled to get his relievers into the fray.

Eighty pitches and 3.2 innings later, the pen had not only allowed 2 of the 3 runners that Flaherty left, they surrendered 3 more on top of that on 5 hits and 4 more walks.  It made things easy enough for Milwaukee as they took the important opener of this three game set, 6-4 (box score).

In relief of Flaherty came fellow rookie Dakota Hudson.  Dakota has shown great promise, but control has not been his greatest strength.  Hudson walked the first batter he faced – forcing in a run.  Hudson has now walked 16 batters in 25.1 innings (5.68 per 9 innings).

After him came yet another rookie – Jordan Hicks.  The Brewers added another run off him in the seventh, set up by two more walks.  Jordan has walked 42 in 76 innings (already).  He is averaging 4.74 walks per 9 innings.

Winning is difficult enough when the pitching staff walks six batters.  When 5 of the 6 walks (as well as a hit batter) all happen in the span of two innings, it adds another layer of difficulty to the task.  In Flaherty, Hudson and Hicks, the Cards have three dynamic arms that will form part of a great foundation for years to come.

Last night, they were not equal to the moment.  The opportunity to eclipse Milwaukee has all but vanished, and St Louis’ grip on the last playoff spot is very tenuous.

The sixth walk was intentional from veteran Bud Norris.  That would be the walk that was at the center of the throwing error that sent home Milwaukee’s winning run.

The Cards have been a very scrappy team over the season’s second half.  Coming down the stretch, certain aspects of the team are proving to be less than reliable.  Especially unreliable has been the bullpen.  During the month of September, Cardinal relievers are walking 4.76 batters unintentionally every nine innings, while scuffling to a 4.55 ERA.  The batting average against them this month has been a distressing .281.

Truthfully, the starting pitching this month hasn’t been notably better than the ‘pen.  After Flaherty’s game, St Louis has gotten just 6 quality starts in the 22 games played so far this month, with the rotation struggling to a 4.45 ERA.

Still, I sometimes find myself wishing that Mike wasn’t quite so eager to get his relievers into the game.

Jack Flaherty

Young Flaherty entered the month on a major roll, having tossed 5 consecutive quality starts.  Jack’s regression this month is symptomatic of the entire staff.  In his 5 September starts, Flaherty has 1 quality start and a 4.50 ERA.  In his 26 September innings, Jack has walked 15 batters and hit 2 others – leading to a .325 on base percentage.

Among the many impressive aspects of Flaherty’s game is his ability to get hitters out when behind in the count.  Of the 22 batters he faced last night, he finished behind in the count to 8 of them.  A couple walked, but the other six managed just 1 hit (Cain’s single on a 3-2 pitch in the third), with 1 strikeout (Moustakas on a 3-2 pitch in the fifth) and one ground-ball double play (Yelich in the first on a 2-1 pitch).

In the season’s second half, Flaherty has allowed batters just a .194 batting average (12 for 62) when he has been behind in the count.

Dakota Hudson

Hudson walked in a run when he gave a 4-pitch walk to Braun.  Until September, Hudson had never issued a 4-pitch walk.  He has done so 3 times in 9.2 innings so far this month.

Hudson has also allowed 7 of the 10 runners he’s inherited this month to score.

Jordan Hicks

Jordan Hicks hasn’t had the best September.  He has now given up runs in two straight games – blowing saves in both games.  In 8.2 innings this month he has given 5 runs on 7 hits and 6 walks.

Bud Norris

Back on the mound after seven days, Bud Norris was more unlucky than bad.  The triple he allowed could have been better played, and his errant throw was trying to pick off a batter that he had intentionally walked.  Even so the downward trend continues for Norris.

The loss was his fifth in a row.  Even more concerning, in his 7 appearances since his last save, Bud has lasted just 4 innings while being lit up for 7 runs (6 earned) on 6 hits and 8 walks (albeit 2 were intentional).  He has thrown only 54% of his pitches for strikes this month, while the last 27 batters to face him hold a batting line of .333/.538/.944.  It has not been a pretty month for Mr Norris.

Mike Mayers

Seeing that, you might think no pitcher on the staff has had a worse 7-game stretch than Bud Norris.  You would only think that, though, because you haven’t considered Mike Mayers’ last 7 games – a stretch during which he has only managed 4.1 innings while serving up 6 runs on 13 hits (including 4 doubles and a home run).  The last 28 batters to face Mayers hold a .520/.556/.800 batting line.

Many, many month ago as the team was wrapping up spring training, Mike had generated considerable buzz during an excellent camp.  Spring training was a long time ago.

Jose Martinez

His misplay in right was a pivotal moment in the game, but Jose Martinez continues to swing a hot bat.  He had 2 hits last night (including a home run) for the fourth time in the last 6 games.  During that stretch, Jose is hitting .391 (9 for 23) with a .652 slugging percentage (he has 3 doubles to go with the home run).

Martinez leads the club in second half batting average at .318 (63 for 198).

Jose’s home run off of Josh Hader came on a 2-0 pitch.  Deep behind in the count is a place you do not want to be against Jose Martinez.  This season, when Jose is ahead in the count 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 he is a .410 hitter (16 for 39).  In the second half, he has been hitting .563 (9 for 16) on those pitches.

Yadier Molina

Although St Louis only had 8 hits on the night, they were mostly well distributed.  Only Jedd Gyorko and Yadier Molina (among the starters) were held off the hit sheet.  The team is now hitting just .243 for the month.  Yadi is now hitting .211 (8 for 38) since his return from his elbow injury.