It began in the very first inning of the homestand.

After 17 days in quarantine, the St Louis Cardinals re-started their season with 8 games in 5 days in Chicago (playing the White Sox and Cubs). Now they were finally coming back home, for what would be nearly half of their home games for the whole season.  They had played three home games in July before the shutdown.  They will play 12 more games at home over two homestands later on this month.  But on that August 20 evening they took the field to begin a 12-game homestand, hoping for the things one usually hopes for at home – to find a little rhythm and make up some ground.

And then, five pitches into the first game, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto reached on a throwing error.  It would be a harbinger.  Before that very first inning was in the books, the Cards had committed two throwing errors (one on a should-have-been double-play ball that would have ended the inning) and before they would come to bat for the first time – before the cardboard fans had settled into their seats – Cincinnati had two unearned runs on the board.

As heroic as Adam Wainwright was in salvaging the final game of the homestand, he was just as heroic in game one.  Shrugging off the shaky first inning, Waino went seven innings that first night and the Birds (not for the last time on the homestand) profited from some shaky relief pitching to eke out a 5-4 win (boxscore).

And the errors, at that point, were easy enough to overlook.  It was one shaky inning.  No big deal.

This evening, the Birds will begin an eight-game road trip.  During the 12 games spent at home – even figuring in a 14-2 pounding they received at the hands of the Indians on Saturday – the Cardinal pitching staff concluded its homestand with a 3.00 ERA – including a 2.59 mark from the starters, who tossed 5 quality starts during the 12 games.  The offense was up and down, but at the end of the stand, they had put 48 runs on the board (4 per game).  Not an outstanding number, but good enough, considering the quality of the pitching they got – enough to have given them, say, an 8-4 record over the stand.

Yesterday – on this 39^th birthday – Adam Wainwright authored his first complete game since 2016 as the Cardinals claimed the final game of the homestand, 7-2 over the Indians (boxscore).  That win salvaged a 6-6 homestand.

How did it get away?  As much as anything else, it was the defense and the bizarre rules that govern this COVID season of 2020.  Between defensive hiccups and free runners to start extra innings, St Louis allowed 11 unearned runs over the course of the 12 games.  Unearned runs figured prominently in half of the losses.

The next night against the Reds, St Louis took a 2-0 lead into the sixth inning, when with two outs, two errors put a runner at third.  The fourth out of the inning proved elusive, as the errors were followed by a walk, a hit batsman, and a grand slam home run by Matt Davidson that flipped the 2-0 lead into a 4-2 loss (boxscore).

On August 27, Pittsburgh was in town for a double-header.  Game one was still scoreless as it headed into the fourth, but Pittsburgh broke on top after leadoff hitter Cole Tucker reached second on another throwing error by third-baseman Bill Miller.  That would be Pittsburgh’s only run during the 7 innings of regulation.  The Cards, themselves, could only muster a single run, so the game proceeded into the eighth under extra-inning rules, and free runner Jarrod Dyson was the first of three Pittsburgh runs scored that inning.  One of the others scored on another Miller throwing error.  The Pirates won the game 4-3 (boxscore), with only one of the runs being earned. (Miller, by the way, hasn’t played third since).

The final unearned run to score against St Louis was another free runner – the Indians’ Mike Freeman started the twelfth inning on Second base Saturday night.  An excuse me swing from Tyler Naquin produced the run and the 2-1 victory (boxscore).

DeJong

The Cards were very glad to get shortstop Paul DeJong back among the actives.  He had a big series against the Indians (6 for 13), and has hit in 5 of his last 7 games.  Paul has 3, three-hit games during that streak, and is hitting .407 (11 for 27) during the seven games.

Yadi

The other regular who missed time with the virus is Yadier Molina – who has also bounced back strongly.  He has hits in 7 of his last 9 games, getting multiple hits in three of them.  Over the nine games, Yadi is hitting .364 (12 for 33).

NoteBook

At 4:06, Saturday’s game was the second longest of the season so far.  It took 4:09 for the Cards to lose a 6-3 game in Chicago on August 18.  Even though the final game was quick at 2:24, the series itself averaged 3:27 per game – the longest series by average time this season.  St Louis’ previous long was the three games against KC that averaged 3:18.

The twelve runs they lost by on Friday constituted the Cardinals deepest deficit of the season.  They had previously trailed the White Sox by 7 runs on August 16, on their way to a 7-2 loss.

With Cleveland scoring first in all three games, St Louis’ opponents have put up the first run in 7 consecutive games.  The Cards have scored first only 6 times in their last 22 games.

My Designated Hitter Rant

As the DH seems to be a real threat in the near future – and many expect it to be universal and permanent by 2022 if not sooner – I am going to include the link to my DH rant at the bottom of all my baseball posts this year (and next, probably).  If you have already read it, you should know that I added a section on July 30 after the Cards first five games with the DH.  Here is the link.  If this idiocy is to become law, I want to do everything I can to make sure as many people as possible understand why this is wrong.

The scene played out as it has frequently during Bill Miller’s first 40 Cardinal plate appearances.  It was the third inning of last night’s game, Cards up 1-0, with a struggling Brad Keller on the hill for Kansas City.

Keller did throw a first-pitch slider for a strike, but as Miller patiently waited, Keller missed with the next three pitches.  The 3-1 pitch was a sinker, about thigh high, that Miller slapped into center for another hit.

The process reversed itself in the sixth against Chance Adams, but the result was the same.  Adam got ahead of Miller 0-2 with three fastballs, before missing with a change and a curve.  Now 2-2, Chance went back to the change – actually a good pitch that dropped over the outside corner.  But Brad lined it again into center for a single (this one more to right center than the first one).

His fifth inning single was pulled to right, but that’s been the anomaly this year.  A .242 lifetime hitter, Brad’s three-hit game last night pushed his 2020 average to .367.  Again, it’s only 40 plate appearances, but there are two things notably different about Brad in his early tenure in a Cardinal uniform.

The first has been the middle of the field.  A full 58.3% of the balls that Brad has put into play have gone to the middle of the diamond.  For his career, Brad pulls the ball 37.1% of the time, as opposed to hitting it up the middle just 35.9%.

He is 8 for 15 (.533) with 2 doubles and a home run (an .867 slugging percentage) this season when he works the middle.

The other big difference with Brad so far in 2020 is more, perhaps, a matter of luck.  As with his third inning at bat against Keller, pitchers have struggled to throw strikes when Miller is at the plate.  To this point, only 36.5% of the pitches thrown to him have been in the zone.

So, through his first 11 games as a Cardinal, Brad has only ended an at bat trailing in the count 8 times.  He has finished 16 others ahead in the count.  In those plate appearances, Miller has walked half the time and gone 4-for-8 the other half – a .750 on base percentage.

The weight of his career – all 2715 plate appearances of it – does suggest that by the end of the season, Brad’s numbers will fall more in line with the rest of his career.  Creeping up on your thirty-first birthday, it’s usually a little late to re-invent yourself.  But even a modest adjustment in approach could make a significant difference.  Both for Brad and his team.  Stay tuned.

Goldy, again

Paul Goldschmidt was another of the productive bats that drove the Cards to a 9-3 win last night (boxscore).  He also had three hits and a walk – one of his hits being a home run.  Exactly what Goldschmidt did during the quarantine is not known, but he returned to action un-impacted by the layoff.  Over the last 13 games, Paul has had 52 plate appearances with the following results: 11 singles, 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 walks.  Paul has driven in 7 runs and scored 8 while slashing .395/.558/.605 over those 13 games.

Being behind in the count hasn’t been a concern for Goldschmidt, either.  His 2 singles came on 0-1 and 1-2 counts.  Paul has pushed his season average up to .368 going 7 for his last 15 (.467) when behind in the count.

Edman

A revelation last year as a rookie, Tommy Edman has struggled off the mark so far this season.  Recently, though, he has shown signs of turning things around.  Over his last 6 games, Edman is 7 for 19 – a .368 average.

Carpenter

Before last night’s game ended, the Cards had been gifted 7 walks and 3 other hit batsmen.  Matt Carpenter received one of each, but didn’t contribute any of the 12 hits.  Over his last 5 games, Matt has walked 6 times, but is just 2 for 14 at the plate (.143).  After talking all spring about his re-vamped, opposite field stroke, Matt is, thus far, pulling the ball more than he ever has in his career.  He is currently right at 60% pulling the ball.  Over his previous four seasons – when he began to be pull-happy – he only pulled the ball 47.6% of the time.

Matt has worked himself ahead in the count 24 times so far this year – eventually drawing 9 walks.  But in his 15 at bats, Carp only has 1 hit – the grand slam in Chicago.

Flaherty

Back in the seventh inning of the season opener, Jack Flaherty went to a full count on Pirate slugger Josh Bell before Bell beat out an infield single.  That is the only hit Jack has allowed all year when he has been behind in the count.   The Royals were 0-for-7 against him when they were ahead in the count, and the league is 1 for 13 (.077) even when they have the count in their favor.

Gomber

Austin Gomber finished up the fifth inning and then went on to pitch the sixth last night.  Austin is now unscored on in 6.1 innings so far this year – but he has made a struggle out of it.  He pitched behind to 4 of the 7 he faced.  For the season, Austin has finished the at bat behind 13 of the 25 he has faced so far.  Four of them have walked, and another has been hit by a pitch.  The other 8 are 0-for-7 with a sacrifice fly.

NoteBook

Game time temperature was 95, by 3 degrees the hottest game of the year so far.  Back on July 26 (also at home) they played against Pittsburgh in 92 degree heat.

Kolten Wong had started seven consecutive games at second before he was given a breather last night (Tommy Edman started in his place).  Paul Goldschmidt, with six consecutive starts at first, now holds the Cards longest current streak for consecutive starts at one position.

My Designated Hitter Rant

As the DH seems to be a real threat in the near future – and many expect it to be universal and permanent by 2022 if not sooner – I am going to include the link to my DH rant at the bottom of all my baseball posts this year (and next, probably).  If you have already read it, you should know that I added a section on July 30 after the Cards first five games with the DH.  Here is the link.  If this idiocy is to become law, I want to do everything I can to make sure as many people as possible understand why this is wrong.

On their way to 91 wins and the NL Central title, last year’s St Louis Cardinals rode its young and talented pitching staff to a 3.80 season ERA – the fifth best in all of baseball, and second in the National League only to the Dodgers.  Meanwhile – at 4.18 – the Cincinnati Reds also boasted a top ten pitching staff (they ranked ninth overall and fourth in the NL).  The Reds, by comparison, never really challenged – finishing with 87 losses.

In spite of the divergent records, these two teams were more than a little similar in that they made a common practice of wasting excellent pitching.  They average major league team scored 4.83 runs per game.  The Cards finished nineteenth, averaging 4.72 runs per game – Cincinnati scored 4.33 runs per game, ranking twenty-fifth.  The major league average OPS last year was .758.  St Louis finished at .737 (21st) while the Reds OPSed .736 (22^nd).  These numbers, by the way, courtesy of baseball reference.

Thus, both teams went into last offseason looking at ways to boost run production.  The Reds took a fistful of money and clambered into the free agent market.  They came home with Mike Moustakas – a 35 home run man for Milwaukee last year – for 64 million over four years, and Nicholas Castellanos (also for four years and 64 million) who had hit 58 doubles to go with 27 home runs and a .289 batting average with Detroit and the Cubs.  The beauty of these coups was not only the addition of a couple of impact bats to their own lineup, but their subtraction would serve to bring division rivals in Milwaukee and Chicago back to the pack.

The Cardinals took the exact opposite approach.  The acquired Bill Miller to strengthen the bench, but beyond that they looked to development and improvement from within.

Last weekend, these two teams assembled in St Louis for the first time this season to take each other’s measure.  How have the divergent approaches played out?

Twenty-two games into their season, Cincy’s 4.11 ERA ranked third in the NL.  But their 96 runs scored ranked eleventh in the 15 team league.  At 4.36 runs per game, the offensive output was almost identical so far to last year.  The Cards had only played 13 games to that point, but their results were similar.  They came in with a strong 4.19 team ERA, but scoring just 4.00 runs per contest – a figure that ranked among the worst in all of baseball.

So, the question as the series began was, would either team be able to score a run, and if both of these pitching staffs dominated each other’s offense, would that say more about the talented pitching staffs or the struggling lineups?  (It is worth noting that both teams are playing with full-time designated hitters this season – so that alone should be expected to increase the offense).

The series – which the Cards took, three games to one – played out much as advertised.  St Louis fared against the Reds about as well as they have against everyone else.  They scored 16 runs during the series (4 per game) and hit .234 (29 of 124).  They are hitting .232 over the whole season.

The eye-catching numbers were recorded by the Cardinal pitching staff.  Over the four games, they allowed just 10 runs – and only 4 of those were earned.  The team-wide 1.00 ERA was accompanied by a .138 batting average against (the Reds managed just 17 hits over the series.  Cincinnati – in fact – didn’t score an earned run in either of the middle two games, but – in a scenario that is the Cardinal season so far in microcosm – still managed to win one of them.

In the Friday game, the Cards put runners in scoring position in the third, fourth and fifth innings – loading the bases in the third and fifth – but never produced a hit in those situations.  They finished 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position, managing just two runs (on a bases loaded walk and a ground ball).  Even so, the Birds carried a 2-0 lead into the sixth inning, as starter Dakota Hudson had allowed just 1 hit over the first 4.2 innings before turning the game over to the bullpen.

Genesis Cabrera, on the mound in that pivotal inning, retired the first two batters on a groundball and a strikeout.  When Eugenio Suarez lofted a high fly ball to deep center field, the inning seemed to be over.  But Harrison Bader – a defensive standout – had the ball bounce off the heel of his glove, and suddenly Suarez was at third.  In short order, a walk and a hit batsman loaded the bases.  When Tyler Webb came out of the pen to face lefty Josh VanMeter, Cincy countered with right-handed slugger Matt Davidson.

Matt shocked the cardboard faithful, drilling Tyler’s third pitch deep over the fence in left-center.  It was Cincinnati’s second (and final) hit of the day.  The Cards would finish with only 3 hits of their own and a 4-2 loss (boxscore).

Hits have been hard to come by against the Cardinal pitching staff.  After the Cincinnati series, St Louis holds the majors lowest batting average against (at .177 they are nearly 30 points lower than the next best staff).  But – at 3.94 walks per nine innings – they are walking the tenth most batters in the majors.  Toss in the 9 batters they’ve hit, and St Louis is surrendering over 4.5 free baserunners per game.

Things have, of course, been worse since the season restart – especially from the bullpen as they struggle to regain command of their breaking pitches.  In the 12 games since St Louis re-took the field, they have turned to their bullpen for 45 innings, watching them unintentionally walk 27 batters (5.40 walks per 9 innings), hit 4 others and serve up 9 home runs (1.80 per 9 innings).

In the 13.2 innings they pitched against the Reds, the bullpen was touched for only 4 hits – an .095 batting average against.  But they walked 10 batters in those innings.  This is the early story of the Cardinal’s second season.

As to the starters – especially the ones who worked in the Cincinnati series – their early-season reverse platoon splits have been nothing short of phenomenal.  Reverse platoon splits refer to the ability of right-handed pitchers to retire left-handed batters and of the lefties to get the righties out.  We will consider them individually.

Wainwright

Pitching on normal rest for the first time this season, Adam Wainwright struggled early in the first game, falling behind 3-0 in the second.  He rebounded to keep the game close enough for the Birds to pull out a 5-4 win (boxscore).  He finished 7 innings allowing 6 hits.

He was most effective against Cincy’s left-handed hitters, who were just 5-for-21 (.238) against him with no walks.  So far in 2020, left-handers are just 7 for 40 (.175) against Waino with 1 walk – good for a .190 on base percentage against him.

This is in sharp contrast to his performance against lefties in the most recent seasons.  From 2016 through 2019, the 1109 left-handed batters to face Adam were hitting a healthy .289 with 36 home runs.  If he can sustain his early effectiveness against these guys, it will go a long way towards returning Adam to the elite pitcher he has been in seasons past.

Hudson

Dak started the second game (already discussed).  In three starts so far this season, Hudson has yet to eclipse 4.2 innings, but has been largely effective since the re-start.  In the two starts he’s made since the quarantine, Dak has lasted a total of 8.2 innings, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 9.

The left-handers he faced against Cincy finished 0-for-12 with 5 strikeouts.  They are 0-for-17 against him over his last 2 starts, and 2-for-27 (.074) against Hudson this season.

Through his first two major league seasons, Hudson didn’t present much mystery to lefties – the first 161 he faced hit .261 against him with 67 walks – a .374 on base percentage.  Needless to say his new-found dominance against lefties (if it lasts) is a most exciting development in his career.

Kim

Game three of the series belonged to Kwang Hyun Kim, who gained his first major league victory with six scoreless innings of an eventual 3-0 shutout (boxscore).

Of the 21 batters KK faced, 16 were right-handed.  But the Korean lefty was unfazed, allowing them just 2 hits – one an infield hit.  For the season so far, right-handers have solved Kim for only 5 hits and 1 walk (intentional).  They are hitting .152 with an on base percentage of .176.  His splits from Korean baseball are not readily available, but as a 136-game winner there over 12 seasons, Kwang must certainly have developed the ability to handle right-handers.

Ponce de Leon

Daniel Ponce de Leon was hurt early in the Sunday game, serving up a two-run homer to Suarez in the first inning.  But Daniel held it together after that, allowing no more runs during his 4.2 innings – although he walked 4 while giving 3 hits.

He did walk 3 lefties and hit another, but also held them to just 1-for-12 in the game.  For the season, left-handers are hitting just .179 against Ponce (5 for 28), but that does come with a bit of an asterisk, as he has walked 7, hit 2 more and allowed 3 extra-base hits (a triple and two home runs) to lefties.

For the most part throughout his young career, and in spite of the fact that he has walked a few of them, Ponce de Leon has had admirable success against left-handers, holding them to a .156 average (24 for 154) thus far.

Gant

In the first game of the first double-header after the quarantine, John Gant served up a double to White Sox youngster Luis Robert.  It is the only hit off of Johnny so far this season.  Batters are 0-for-13 since then against him with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts.

A Miller

Pitching in the Saturday game, Andrew Miller came in with a 3-0 lead in the eighth inning, inheriting a runner at first and no outs.  Switch-hitting Freddy Galvis grounded the first pitch thrown to him into a double play, mostly diffusing the inning.  But Andrew stirred up some more trouble surrendering a single to right-handed hitting Kyle Farmer and then walking the left-hander, Joey Votto.  He then left the game as Giovanny Gallegos ended the inning with a strikeout of Castellanos.

Right-handers have been an issue thus far for Andrew.  They are now 6 for 15 (.400) early, although in fairness only one of those hits has been for extra-bases (a double) and he has only walked 1 right-hander.

Some Signs of Stability

While there has been significant struggle as the pitching staff – and in particular the bullpen – has tried to right itself, there are a few signs of normalcy.  In the four games of the Cincinnati series, no Cardinal made his major league debut – a first since the quarantine.  Also, when Alex Reyes came into the Thursday game, he was the first reliever to work with two full days of rest since the season re-started.  Baby steps, I guess.

Bader

The mostly struggling offense started to find a little life over the last two games against the Reds – mostly in the person of Harrison Bader, whose hitting struggles had threatened his place in the lineup.  With his average fading to .125, Bader went 4-for-6 over the last two games, with 2 doubles and 2 home runs – hitting one off a slider.

Yadi

The other significant offensive force during the series was Yadier Molina.  Coming off the disabled list in time to play the series, Cincinnati’s favorite Cardinal (Yadi) was 7 for 17 during the series with 5 runs batted in.  He had two multi-hit games, getting four in the Sunday final – a 6-2 Cardinal win (boxscore).  Molina has played in 9 games this season, and has hits in 7 of them.

Goldy

Paul Goldschmidt keeps on keeping on.  He was 3-for-10 during the series with 7 walks.  Since the Cards have gotten back on the field, Paul is 12 for 34 (.353) with 13 walks – a .532 on base percentage.

O’Neil

Perhaps the toughest series belonged to Tyler O’Neil – 1 for 15 in the set, and just 2 for his last 30.  Tyler is also 0-for-9 this season against lefties.

NoteBook

At 2:15, Saturday’s game was the quickest 9-inning game of the young season.  The previous shortest game was the 2:03 7-inning contest against the Cubs on August 17.  The starters in that game were Kim for the Cardinals and Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs.

To no one’s surprise, the hot weather was waiting for the Cards when they returned home.  Sunday’s game was played in 90 degree heat – their first 90 degree game since before the COVID shutdown.  Back on July 26 they lost a 5-1 game to Pittsburgh in 92 degree heat.

With the Sunday game checking in at 3:03, (and in spite of the brevity of the Saturday game) the four Cincinnati games averaged 2:55, making this the longest series by average time so far this season.  The opening three-game series against the Pirates averaged 2:54.3.

There are a few categories of wins and losses that I look to for particular insight.  They are the games that reveal character.  Games against winning teams is one.  Games after a loss is another.  And then there are the one-run games.  They tell a special story, as victory or defeat is always just a matter of one pitch, one play, or one decision.

Last night’s 5-4, walk-off win over Cincinnati (boxscore) was, perhaps, the quintessential one-run game.  The twists and turns of that contest allowed both teams ample opportunity to get the win – and, like all of these games, the deciding factors were part talent and part character with a dash of good (or bad) luck tossed in.

The game began as a Cincinnati rout.  A couple of Cardinal errors led to two unearned first-inning runs, and the Reds increased their lead to 3-0 on Freddy Galvis’ second inning home run. 

But the Reds weren’t done in the second.  Tucker Barnhart and Joey Votto followed the home run with singles.  If Votto’s single was just placed well enough that Barnhart could have made it to third, he would almost certainly have scored on Nicholas Castellanos’ fly ball, and that might have changed the course of the game.  Perhaps Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright doesn’t survive the third if he allows any more runs in the second.  But Barnhart had to hold at second, Wainwright rebounded to retire both Castellanos and Jesse Winker, and the Reds stranded two.  Still, they had an early 3-0 lead with Sonny Gray – one of baseball’s nastiest pitchers – on the mound.

The Cards had their first opportunity to dig into that lead in the bottom of the second when they loaded the bases with one out.  At the plate, recently returned Yadier Molina was facing a live pitcher for the first time in over three weeks, and for the first two pitches looked overmatched by Gray.  But Sonny missed with the 1-2 pitch – a slider that he left up.  Yadi flicked it into right, and St Louis trimmed the lead to 3-2.  Without that hit, St Louis almost certainly loses this game.

Cincy pushed the lead back up to 4-2 in the top of the third, as an infield hit off the bat of Eugenio Suarez preceded Mike Moustakas’ double into the right-field gap.  At that point, Waino had only recorded 6 outs, while serving up 4 runs on 6 hits – including a homer.

But Moustakas would be the last Red to reach base against Adam, who set down the last 15 batters he faced, becoming the first Cardinal pitcher to complete 7 innings in this strange season.  But Gray was nearly as good, muffling the Cardinal bats as the game went to the bullpens in the bottom of the seventh, Cincinnati still holding a 4-2 lead.

The Reds had opportunities in the eighth and especially in the ninth to pad their lead.  But Alex Reyes struck out Josh VanMeter to end the eighth with runners at first and third.  Seth Elledge invited more trouble in the ninth when he walked Galvis leading off.  But on the second pitch to Barnhart, Molina gunned Galvis out at second trying to steal.  If Freddy makes it, the Reds probably win.  If Freddy had just stayed at first, the Reds would probably have won.  Seth then proceeded to load the bases on a double and two walk before finally striking out Suarez on the 32^nd pitch of the inning.

All of this left the Cards within striking distance in the ninth, when Raisel Iglesias emerged from the Cincinnati bullpen.  In almost every case, one team’s closer will have a significant impact on the outcome of a one-run game – and this one began to unravel on Iglesias immediately.  A hit batter, a walk, a single and suddenly the bases were loaded with nobody out.

At the plate, of course, was Molina – who once again fell behind quickly, 0-2.  When Molina initially hit the next pitch, it looked like Iglesias had induced the double-play that would gut the rally.  But as the ball hopped over the mound, Iglesias leapt to glove it.  He succeeded only in batting the ball away from the shortstop and toward third.  The Reds had no play anywhere.  The bases were still loaded, still no one out, the lead now trimmed to 4-3.

At this point, it must have been apparent to all parties how this one would end.  A balk brought home the tying run, and one out later Kolten Wong greeted Nate Jones with a drive into the gap in right-center to end the nip-and-tuck affair in the Cardinal’s favor.

As is often the case in one-run games, the heroes at the end of the game were not necessarily the ones who were having the best game early on.  Wainwright was on the ropes early before he settled in to become the pitching hero of the game.  Seth Elledge saw four of the six batters he faced reached base – three of them on walks.  But he made the pitch he needed to make to get out of the ninth and was awarded his first major league win.  Prior to his game-winning hit, Kolten Wong had been 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts.

In his eight-year career in St Louis, Wong has now delivered 12 game-winning hits and 15 late, game-changing hits in one-run games. (For the record, Albert Pujols has delivered the most Cardinal game-winning hits in one-run games this century with 42 and is tied with Molina for most late, game-changing hits in one-run games with 37.)

St Louis is now 2-1 this season in one-run games.  They were 25-22 during the regular season last year, and won both one-run games in the Division Series against Atlanta.  During the century, they are 481-467 (counting playoffs) in these contests.

It is hardly surprising that the comeback came at the expense of the Reds.  Almost every season, it seems that St Louis fashions some kind of highlight-reel comeback against Cincinnati.  This was the 161^st time this century that St Louis has come from at least three runs behind to win.  Twenty-seven of those have come at the expense of the Reds – including the Cards two biggest comebacks this century.  On May 12, 2002 they came from 8 runs down to win 10-8.  Just last year (on July 19) they turned a 7-run deficit into a 12-11 win.  They have won 62 games this century when trailing after 8 innings.  Seven of those have come at Cincinnati’s expense – including this game in May of 2005 when the Cards won 10-9 after trailing by six runs headed into the ninth.

If the comeback last night seemed eerily familiar, that might be the reason.

NoteBook

Cincinnati’s two-run first marked the eighth time in the last 11 games that St Louis has allowed the first run of the game.

My Designated Hitter Rant

As the DH seems to be a real threat in the near future – and many expect it to be universal and permanent by 2022 if not sooner – I am going to include the link to my DH rant at the bottom of all my baseball posts this year (and next, probably).  If you have already read it, you should know that I added a section on July 30 after the Cards first five games with the DH.  Here is the link.  If this idiocy is to become law, I want to do everything I can to make sure as many people as possible understand why this is wrong.

With the fifth pitch of the first game, Chicago starter Alec Mills plunked Cardinal leadoff hitter Kolten Wong with the pitch.  It would be an auspicious beginning to another 14 inning afternoon of baseball in Chicago.

Wong would be the first of four batters hit by pitches on the afternoon.  Two batters later, Paul Goldschmidt would draw the first of 16 combined walks between the two teams.  Both would score moments later on Matt Carpenter’s grand slam.

The Cub starter would walk another before he left the game after 3.2 innings, and two relievers would walk 3 more.  One of those walks (Wong, again) would come home to score one of the final runs in St Louis’ opening game 9-3 victory (boxscore).  For their part, Cardinal pitchers Jack Flaherty, Austin Gomber and Ricardo Sanchez would combine to walk 6 and hit two others (remember, this was a 7 inning game).  Remarkably, only one of those free runners scored.

There were 5 more combined walks and another hit batsman in the second game – a 4-2 Chicago win (boxscore). The Cubs – who totaled just 6 hits in the night-cap – managed to bunch 4 of them together in the seventh to produce the winning rally, but their first two runs in the second were set up by back to back walks and a wild pitch to open the inning.  Of the three Cardinals to walk, only Dylan Carlson scored (at the time it was the tying run in the sixth), although the other Cardinal run of the game reached on an error and scored on a fly ball.  After bouncing out 11 hits in game one, St Louis managed just 3 singles in game two.

For the pitching staff, this has become a recurring theme.  Restarting their season from a standing start after a 17-day layoff, nearly the entire staff has struggled to regain its pre-COVID command.  The eight games just played in Chicago saw Cardinal hurlers issue 35 walks (2 intentional) while hitting 4 other batters in just 58 innings – a figure that works out to 5.43 unintentional walks per nine innings.

The Cubs and White Sox only combined to hit .183 against the St Louis staff, but with the free baserunners maintained a .314 on base percentage.

The issue was particularly telling against the Cub lineup, strewn as it is with veteran hitters who are in no rush to help out a scuffling pitcher.  In 36 innings in Wrigley, Cardinal pitchers issued 28 walks.  Four others reached after being hit by pitches.  Of the 19 runners Chicago scored in the 5 games, 7 of them reached base without virtue of a hit.

Starting the second game, Johan Oviedo became the final Cardinal pitcher in the series to make his major league debut.  Johan walked the first two batters in the second.  But in an encouraging sign, that was the last walk surrendered by the Cards in the game.  Oviedo worked through the fifth without allowing anymore free runners.  Thereafter, Genesis Cabrera, Andrew Miller and Giovanny Gallegos faced a total of 9 batters with no walks.

Whether it’s a turning point for this rotation or not remains to be seen.  But 6 essentially walk-less innings is certainly encouraging.

Brad Miller

If there is a small silver lining to come out of the whole COVID thing, it might be that the crush of games and innings has forced Mike Shildt to go to his bench more, I’m sure, than he would like to.  This has provided Brad Miller an opportunity to open some eyes.  After hitting two home runs in the second game on Monday, Brad wrapped up a 6-for-12, 8 RBI series with a 3-for-5 doubleheader that included an RBI double.  Since the season reboot, Miller has earned 22 plate appearances resulting in 3 singles, 2 doubles, 2 home runs, 5 walks and a sacrifice fly.  He is slashing .438/.545/.938 (a 1.483 OPS) in 7 games (6 starts).  His 9 RBIs include 1 game-winning hit and 2 late, game-changing hits.

He is also 3-for-3 when batting with runners in scoring position.

Tyler O’Neill

Tyler O’Neill was one of the big bats in the lineup when the season resumed.  He went 3-for-7 in the first doubleheader against the White Sox with a double and a game-winning home run.  Since then, Tyler, fighting to establish himself as an everyday presence in the lineup, has gone 1-for-15 over the last five games.  His overall average has slipped to .189 and Shildt dropped him from fourth to sixth in the lineup.

Andrew Knizner

During Yadier Molina’s absence, the catching duties were roughly split between prospect Andrew Knizner and veteran Matt Wieters.  Neither took advantage of the opportunity presented (Molina has returned to the roster and will be in tonight’s lineup).  Wieters has begun his season 0-for-12.  Knizner saw his first action of the season in the first game of the White Sox doubleheader – and went 2-for-3 with an RBI.  He is 0-for-10 with 5 strikeouts and a double-play grounder since then.

NoteBook

The Cards have now scored first in a game only 3 times in their last 10 contests.

The five games in Wrigley averaged 77.6 degrees, making it the coolest series of the young season.  The previous low for a series was 81 degrees for two games in Minnesota in July.

On August 15, after a 17-day layoff, the St Louis Cardinals picked up their bats and gloves and took to the field against the Chicago White Sox.  The timing of their bounce-back from the COVID outbreak that interrupted their season allowed them no live baseball activities before facing a pretty good team in mid-season form.  Questions abounded – particularly regarding the hitters.

If you’ve not seen live major league pitching in 17 days, how can you not be mismatched against the White Sox’ prize youngster, Lucas Giolito.

To everyone’s great relief, the Birds hung up a four-spot in the very first inning.  Cardinal Nation could exhale.  In retrospect, it wasn’t the achievement that it seemed at the time.  Giolito struggled early with his command.  St Louis loaded the bases early with the help of a walk and a hit batsman.  The first run scored on another hit batsman, and a couple of singles created the early lead.

Thereafter, the bats contributed little, but no more was needed as the Cards paddled along to a 5-1 win (boxscore).  In retrospect, the remarkable aspect of St Louis’ first win out of quarantine came from the mound.

Twenty days after his last start, veteran Adam Wainwright silenced all of the dangerous young Chicago bats.  Adam finished 5 strong innings, giving just the one run on two hits.  He threw 42 of his 67 pitches for strikes.

Considering that Adam doesn’t go after hitters with overpowering heat, his command of his breaking pitches – especially that signature curve – was surprising.  And singular.

It would be the last solid effort the Cards would get from a starting pitcher.

Oh, the Pitching Issues

Of the six starters to follow Waino to the hill – including Jack Flaherty in game one of today’s double-header – none has finished 4 innings.  The collected group has totaled 16.2 innings over 6 starts – slightly more than 8 outs a start.  They have averaged 48 pitches a start, but are only throwing 57% of them for strikes.

Their stuff has been outstanding, in that they have scored 19 strikeouts over those innings.  But their command – the collateral damage of the layoff – has suffered to the tune of 12 walks, 1 hit batsman, and 4 home runs.  Opposing hitters have only hit .172 against the last 6 Cardinal starters, but with a .324 on base percentage and a .431 slugging percentage.  And their failure to make it even four innings has made things harder for a bullpen that has its own share of issues.

The Beleaguered Bullpen

Over the 6 games since Waino conquered the White Sox, the succeeding starters have left 27.1 innings for the bullpen to handle.  Some of that was anticipated, as the second game of the two doubleheaders included in this data were going to be “bullpen” games.  But that only added to the importance of innings from the starters in the other games.

The relievers, you see, were working through the same command and endurance issues that the starters were.  They also hadn’t pitched in 17 days and needed some ramp-up time as well.  During this arduous stretch, the bullpen has been, by turns, dominating and struggling.  In the 22 innings leading up to today’s twin-bill, Cardinal relievers have whiffed an astonishing 35 batters – 14.3 per 9 innings – while allowing just 17 hits.

But, over those 22 innings, those relievers have been taxed to the tune of 407 pitches – more than 81 pitches from the pen per game.  Five of those bullpen arms threw at least 30 pitches during their outings.  Only 242 of those pitches have been strikes (59.5%).  In addition to the 35 strikeouts, Cardinal relievers have walked 14, hit 2 others, and served up 7 home runs (remember, this is just 22 innings).

Their subsequent inability to eat innings, and management’s hesitancy to use them too early in back-to-back games, has led to the most memorable aspect of the early days of St Louis’ post-COVID season.  The last 5 games have been marked by an unending stream of minor league and free agent pitchers that have tried their best to hold the fort until things finally stabilize.

Eleven games into the season, the Cards have seen 12 players make their major league debuts – with 9 of the 12 being pitchers.  Seven of those pitchers have made their debut in the last 4 games, with Johan Oviedo set to make his debut when he starts the second game of today’s twinbill.  Some (like Seth Elledge) were prospects who weren’t expected to be in the majors for another year or so.  Others (like Nabil Crismatt) were street free agents who happened to be available.  Representative of the group is Ricardo Sanchez, the rookie lefty who finished the first game of today’s double-header.  Sanchez found himself pitching in important games against the Cubs after an undistinguished six-year minor league career that saw him assemble a 25-47 record with a 4.52 ERA without ever having pitched as high as AAA.

The result of the daily shuffling of the bullpen has given the Cardinal games in Chicago a kind of spring training feel, as an endless string of pitchers wearing numbers in the 60s, 70s and even 80s have taken their turns on the mound.

In all, since the restart of the season – and not counting the just completed first game of the doubleheader – 36% of all Cardinal innings have been handled by pitchers that management had no intention of using this year.

I don’t believe there is any truth to the rumor that they will try to hide a pitching machine behind a cardboard cutout of a pitcher, but my belief is that they are still looking for available arms who might have an inning or more to give.  So, if you’ve ever hankered for the opportunity to pitch for the Cardinals, and you can make it to the stadium tomorrow, you might be making your major league debut before the weekend is over.

Through all of this, the Birds have remained surprisingly competitive, splitting the first six games in their return against two very good Chicago teams.  A credit to the talent of the young not-quite-ready-for-prime-time relievers and the general pluckiness of a team that has historically embraced adversity.  The expectation is that things will get better.  The pitchers who were sidelined by the disease (Carlos Martinez, Ryan Helsley and Junior Fernandez) should shortly make their way back.  The starters currently in the rotation are expected to eventually regain their command and work deeper into these games.  The relievers should also regain their consistency with more use.

Things should get better.  The question is how long will it take, and where will the team be by the time they start to resemble the club they thought they had in spring training 1.0.  Right now they are 3.5 games out in the division and in more than decent shape for one of the playoff spots, but there is a lot of post-COVID adversity before them.  Even after they get the team re-assembled, they will still have the gauntlet of finishing off 53 games in about 43 days.

I don’t forsee any of this getting much easier.

NoteBook

Last night’s marathon – at 4:09 the longest game played so far this early season – came 27 minutes short of the combined time of the doubleheader played the day before (2:03 & 2:33).  The previous longest game was the third game of the season on July 26.  It lasted just 2:56 (a 5-1 loss to the Pirates).

Last night’s game was also the coolest game played so far, with a game time temperature of 73 degrees.  Twice previously in Chicago they had played in 79 degree weather.

During the doubleheader on August 15, four players made their Cardinal debuts (with three of them making their major league debuts).  The four – Dylan Carlson (Oct 23), Brad Miller (Oct 18), Max Schrock (Oct 12) and Jake Woodford (Oct 28) were all born in October.  For those of you scoring at home, the odds of that are approximately 20,736 to 1.

In the aftermath of the recent COVID outbreaks that have affected Miami and St Louis, there has been a great deal of silliness propounded by both the league and the local writers.  Here, a local columnist named Ben Frederickson all but gives up on the season – it’s a classic “sky is falling” article, full of the expected “woe is us” sentiment that usually accompanies a team working its way through a difficult time.

For their part, the league is re-scheduling all of these missed games as double-headers as quickly as the ink dries on the postponement.  The Cards already have 6 scheduled, and will probably have 9 within a couple of days.  Assuming that next week’s Pittsburgh series comes off, the Cards will be faced with the daunting challenge of completing 55 games in 49 days.

Just kill us now.

All of this, mind you, is against the backdrop of the league doing everything it can to coddle the players.  May I remind you that the Universal DH nonsense (here is my rant against that) was implemented so that pitchers wouldn’t have to “fatigue themselves” by actually having to bat.  But three doubleheaders in a week is OK.

The goofy extra-inning rules (ranted upon here) and the seven-inning doubleheaders were all crafted to ease the burden of a suddenly impossibly burdensome season.

All of this foolishness is almost certain to continue, and my small interjection of common sense will almost certainly vanish unheeded into the void.  Nonetheless, if anyone out there – especially MLB – would like to know the right way to proceed, I will commend to them the sage counsel of those renowned British philosophers, the Beatles:

 When I find myself in times of trouble, Mother Mary comes to me speaking words of wisdom – let it be.

All of the angst that is building over these difficulties comes from the ridiculous imperative to cling to the full 60 games.  Let it go.  Let it be.

Some stories suggested that MLB was about to flush the whole season.  Why?  Because a couple teams have had temporary issues with the virus while 28 other teams have executed their protocols perfectly (at least so far)?  Balderdash.

None of this is really rocket science.  Let the teams that are healthy play.  If teams (Miami, St Louis, perhaps some others over the next couple of months) have to drop some games to deal with an outbreak – well, OK, so they miss a few games.  When these teams get back on their feet, they can make up such games as were lost in as sensible fashion as possible.

Here’s what that would look like for the Cardinals:

To this point, St Louis has lost 10 games – 4 against Detroit, 3 against Milwaukee, and 3 against the Cubs.  Flush all of the doubleheaders that the powers that be have imposed.  Give Detroit back its off-days.  Look at the initial schedule, and let’s start over.

The Cards and Tigers (with the doubleheaders wiped) have no more games against each other.  So, for the moment, let’s forget those games.  We will hold them in abeyance, as it were.  But for now, let’s make no effort to reclaim them.

St Louis has two more series this season scheduled with both the Brewers and Cubs.  In each of those series, schedule one – and only one – doubleheader.  That will make up two of the three games lost against each of those division opponents. At the end of the day – assuming that no more games are lost – St Louis would end up with 54 games played (90% of the schedule), all without unduly taxing the team in a breathless race to achieve that magic 60 mark.  As September winds down, if it appears that any of the lost games might carry playoff importance, then plans can be made to accommodate that.  With the schedule ending on September 27, I’m betting that those last few days of September might be available for tying up any loose ends.

I would recommend a similar approach for the Phillies and Marlins.  Let it be.  Make up the games that can be sensibly made up, and let the others go.

Now, this system will likely cost some home games.  Both remaining series against Chicago will be in Wrigley, so – under my proposal – all 9 contests against the Cubs in this strange season would be in Chicago.  Well, first of all, some of that was going to happen anyway.  Among all the doubleheaders proposed by MLB, one had the Cards and Brewers making up a game that was supposed to take place in Milwaukee in St Louis.  Additionally, the original schedule was fairly tilted, anyway.  Of the 20 scheduled games against the Cardinals’ chief opponents in Chicago and Milwaukee, St Louis was going to be the road team in 13 of them.

Everyone’s main problem in trying to pick up the pieces here is that they want to make everything pretty and even.  All of that needs to be secondary to just getting through all of this.  With wacky rules and uneven schedules, this season is going to end with a giant asterisk behind it, regardless of how smoothly it does or doesn’t proceed.  Let’s not make the whole thing an exercise in stupidity as well.

As for the Cards, yes, they have dug themselves into a bit of a hole.  They weren’t playing exceptionally well when their season was halted, and now they will be coming off a nearly two week layoff on Monday (if, in fact, they are allowed to play on Monday).  When they do play, they will have to hit the ground running without several key pieces of the club for an indeterminate time – and the losses of Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Carlos Martinez and the others will be felt.

But the Cards have better depth than people may realize, and have a history of playing their best under adverse conditions.  It would help a lot if they also didn’t have to overcome the mindlessness of the powers that be.