Archives for August 2020

How the homestand got away

It began in the very first inning of the homestand.

After 17 days in quarantine, the St Louis Cardinals re-started their season with 8 games in 5 days in Chicago (playing the White Sox and Cubs). Now they were finally coming back home, for what would be nearly half of their home games for the whole season. They had played three home games in July before the shutdown. They will play 12 more games at home over two homestands later on this month. But on that August 20 evening they took the field to begin a 12-game homestand, hoping for the things one usually hopes for at home – to find a little rhythm and make up some ground.

And then, five pitches into the first game, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto reached on a throwing error. It would be a harbinger. Before that very first inning was in the books, the Cards had committed two throwing errors (one on a should-have-been double-play ball that would have ended the inning) and before they would come to bat for the first time – before the cardboard fans had settled into their seats – Cincinnati had two unearned runs on the board.

As heroic as Adam Wainwright was in salvaging the final game of the homestand, he was just as heroic in game one. Shrugging off the shaky first inning, Waino went seven innings that first night and the Birds (not for the last time on the homestand) profited from some shaky relief pitching to eke out a 5-4 win (boxscore).

And the errors, at that point, were easy enough to overlook. It was one shaky inning. No big deal.

This evening, the Birds will begin an eight-game road trip. During the 12 games spent at home – even figuring in a 14-2 pounding they received at the hands of the Indians on Saturday – the Cardinal pitching staff concluded its homestand with a 3.00 ERA – including a 2.59 mark from the starters, who tossed 5 quality starts during the 12 games. The offense was up and down, but at the end of the stand, they had put 48 runs on the board (4 per game). Not an outstanding number, but good enough, considering the quality of the pitching they got – enough to have given them, say, an 8-4 record over the stand.

Yesterday – on this 39^th birthday – Adam Wainwright authored his first complete game since 2016 as the Cardinals claimed the final game of the homestand, 7-2 over the Indians (boxscore). That win salvaged a 6-6 homestand.

How did it get away? As much as anything else, it was the defense and the bizarre rules that govern this COVID season of 2020. Between defensive hiccups and free runners to start extra innings, St Louis allowed 11 unearned runs over the course of the 12 games. Unearned runs figured prominently in half of the losses.

The next night against the Reds, St Louis took a 2-0 lead into the sixth inning, when with two outs, two errors put a runner at third. The fourth out of the inning proved elusive, as the errors were followed by a walk, a hit batsman, and a grand slam home run by Matt Davidson that flipped the 2-0 lead into a 4-2 loss (boxscore).

On August 27, Pittsburgh was in town for a double-header. Game one was still scoreless as it headed into the fourth, but Pittsburgh broke on top after leadoff hitter Cole Tucker reached second on another throwing error by third-baseman Bill Miller. That would be Pittsburgh’s only run during the 7 innings of regulation. The Cards, themselves, could only muster a single run, so the game proceeded into the eighth under extra-inning rules, and free runner Jarrod Dyson was the first of three Pittsburgh runs scored that inning. One of the others scored on another Miller throwing error. The Pirates won the game 4-3 (boxscore), with only one of the runs being earned. (Miller, by the way, hasn’t played third since).

The final unearned run to score against St Louis was another free runner – the Indians’ Mike Freeman started the twelfth inning on Second base Saturday night. An excuse me swing from Tyler Naquin produced the run and the 2-1 victory (boxscore).

DeJong

The Cards were very glad to get shortstop Paul DeJong back among the actives. He had a big series against the Indians (6 for 13), and has hit in 5 of his last 7 games. Paul has 3, three-hit games during that streak, and is hitting .407 (11 for 27) during the seven games.

Yadi

The other regular who missed time with the virus is Yadier Molina – who has also bounced back strongly. He has hits in 7 of his last 9 games, getting multiple hits in three of them. Over the nine games, Yadi is hitting .364 (12 for 33).

NoteBook

At 4:06, Saturday’s game was the second longest of the season so far. It took 4:09 for the Cards to lose a 6-3 game in Chicago on August 18. Even though the final game was quick at 2:24, the series itself averaged 3:27 per game – the longest series by average time this season. St Louis’ previous long was the three games against KC that averaged 3:18.

The twelve runs they lost by on Friday constituted the Cardinals deepest deficit of the season. They had previously trailed the White Sox by 7 runs on August 16, on their way to a 7-2 loss.

With Cleveland scoring first in all three games, St Louis’ opponents have put up the first run in 7 consecutive games. The Cards have scored first only 6 times in their last 22 games.

My Designated Hitter Rant

As the DH seems to be a real threat in the near future – and many expect it to be universal and permanent by 2022 if not sooner – I am going to include the link to my DH rant at the bottom of all my baseball posts this year (and next, probably). If you have already read it, you should know that I added a section on July 30 after the Cards first five games with the DH. Here is the link. If this idiocy is to become law, I want to do everything I can to make sure as many people as possible understand why this is wrong.

Baseball

One of those days, right?

After the Pirates provided him with the lead with two runs in the top of the third inning, starting pitcher Cody Ponce – making the first start of his major league career – toyed with the idea of giving it back in the bottom of that inning. With one out, he walked Tommy Edman just ahead of the power part of the Cardinal lineup – Paul DeJong and Paul Goldschmidt, who would both be getting their second look at the young Pirate right-hander.

St Louis had lost the first game of the doubleheader to the clever Chad Kuhl. Kuhl had baffled them with a steady mix of hard and soft stuff that he consistently located on the corners of the zone. Ponce would also pitch very well on this night, but with considerably less cleverness.

With DeJong at bat, Cody threw him the fastball he was looking for – 92.5 miles per hour and right down the heart of the plate. But Paul didn’t really square it up, sending a soft flare into short right. Right fielder Jose Osuna didn’t get an exquisite jump on the ball but came closing on it fast, only to see it hit the turf just before he got there.

For about a second there, Cardinal fans had a vision of Goldschmidt at the plate representing the lead run. The problem was that the pop fly put base-runner Edman in no man’s land. With Osuna closing on the ball, there was no way Tommy could stray too far from first. As soon as the ball hit, Osuna was there to gobble it up and fire it to second, barely forcing Edman for the second out.

That might be the microcosm moment as the Cardinals surrendered a couple of games to the beleaguered Pirates, 4-3 (boxscore) and 2-0 (boxscore) as well as a game in the standings to the idle Cubs.

The Birds had some opportunities. They put runners in scoring position in 4 of Cody’s 5.2 innings. But they were 0-for-7 in those opportunities and left 5 while being shutout.

A young man without a rocket arm, Ponce seemed more than willing to challenge the Cardinals. They had their pitches to hit. But, as sometimes happens, they just couldn’t square them up.

A two-out double by Goldschmidt in the first gave Brad Miller the first RBI opportunity of the nightcap. Cody came right after Brad with a 93.4 mph fastball right down the chute. Miller fouled it off. Two pitches later, Brad got a curveball sitting over the middle but flied out to left.

The next inning found Max Schrock at the plate with a runner at third and two outs. Max jumped on a 90.4 mph first pitch fastball that had much-too-much of the plate. And grounded it to second.

There was no one on base for Tyler O’Neill when he hit with one out in the fourth. Ponce threw him a four-seamer at 92.7 right up in his wheelhouse. Tyler hit it pretty well, but right at Osuna.

The game’s pivotal moment came in the home fifth. Dylan Carlson led off with a double into the right-field corner. Shrock got the first shot. He watched Cody pour a fastball right over the middle of the plate, and then popped out on a cutter that jammed him. Next came Harrison Bader.

Ponce kept challenging. Bader got a cut fastball at 88.9 right in the hitting zone. He fouled it off. Two pitches later he got another just like it. And fouled out.

Edman ended the inning with a strikeout.

Leading off the seventh (which was the last inning of the double-header game) Yadier Molina almost halved the lead against reliever Nik Turley. But his long drive to right-center wasn’t quite tagged enough and Cole Tucker ran it down.

After Carlson struck out, the last hope of the day belonged to Dexter Fowler off the bench. As if to prove that he had been watching from the bullpen, Turley came right after Dexter with a fastball down the middle. Fouled off. Two pitches later Fowler got another just like it that he skied into right for the final out.

All across baseball, batters are hitting .336/.350/.589 on that first pitch. The Cards were 0-for-3 on that pitch in the second game. They had also been 0-for-3 on that first pitch in game one. For 15 innings yesterday, St Louis was 0-for-6 on the first pitch, and 0-for-13 in all at bats in which they offered at the first pitch. DeJong’s flair would have been their only hit in those at bats. One of those days.

And sometimes that’s how it happens in baseball. You don’t square up every fastball. Somedays it’s not your day. But it’s understandable that the Cardinal faithful might be getting a little antsy.

When Will They Hit?

Since they restarted the season after the COVID interruption, the Cardinal offense has profited from an abundance of walks and hit batsmen – two elements that were instrumental in the ninth-inning rally against KC the night before.

On Thursday against Pittsburgh, those gifts went away. Over 15 innings yesterday they were granted just 6 walks and no hit batsmen. Without those aides, the offense once again looked halting.

The abbreviated season is now more than a third passed, and the lineup is littered with hitters that we had higher hopes for. Edman – who hit .300 last year and carried the team’s best OPS is hitting .253 with a disappointing .693 OPS. For all of his talk about fixing his swing, Matt Carpenter is hitting .200. O’Neill is down to .180. Kolten Wong is off to a .231 start. Top prospect Carlson is hitting .196 with a .566 OPS.

Of the 15 National League teams (numbers provided by baseball reference), St Louis ranks eleventh in batting average (.241), twelfth in slugging percentage (.376), eleventh in OPS (.717), and twelfth in runs per game (4.09).

With the season’s final month just around the corner, you can understand if the fans start to feel a little bit of panic. But just because baseball has shortened its season, that doesn’t change the laws of baseball. Nobody on the team has more than the 75 at bats that Edman has so far. O’Neill has 61 at bats. Carpenter 60. Carlson just 56 – a little more than a tenth of a normal season’s worth of at bats.

Agonizing as it is to say this, baseball is still a marathon – even when it’s a sprint. It would be soothing to see some of these players putting up solid numbers – especially guys like O’Neil and Carlson who are trying to establish themselves. But sometimes baseball isn’t that accommodating.

With the trade deadline creeping up, the front office will be under varying degrees of pressure to address the lagging offense. But the only sensible course of action is to believe that all of these players are better than we’ve seen so far.

And as for yesterday, you just have to shrug. It was just one of those days. Right?

Speaking of Edman

Tommy’s season can still be called a bit of a disappointment so far, but over recent games Edman has started to resemble the Tommy Edman of last year. He was 3 for 6 in the doubleheader, and has now hit safely in 6 straight games. Edman is 8 for 23 (.348) in those games. He has also hit safely in 8 of his last 9, hitting .353 on 12 of 34 swinging.

Yadi

As inspiring as any of the Cards so far is the rebound of St Louis icon Yadier Molina. After missing 8 games due to the pandemic, Yadi has stepped back into the lineup hitting as though he had never left. Molina had hits in both games – including a home run in the first game, and gave Turley quite a ride in the seventh inning of the last game. Molina is a .391 hitter (9 for 23) over his last 6 games, driving in 4 runs. In the 9 games since his return, Yadi has driven in 7 runs while hitting .343 (12 for 35).

It’s still surprising to see Yadi do this. In the second inning of the second inning, he took the first pitch curve ball from Ponce. The next pitch was a fastball that he slapped up the middle for a single.

Always one of baseball’s most aggressive hitters, Yadi is one of the few you can count on to chase after that first pitch. While all of baseball only swings at the first pitch 25.4% of the time, Yadi goes after 50.9% of those pitches.

What is beginning to be surprising is how productive he’s becoming when he does take that first pitch. Across the majors, batters are only hitting .237 when they take the first pitch of an at bat. Both of Yadi’s hits yesterday came after he took a first-pitch curve.

Since his return to the lineup, Molina is now 6 for 16 (.375) with a double and a home run (.625 slugging percentage) after he takes that first pitch.

Carlson

After going through considerable struggles when first recalled, things are looking like they are starting to fall in a little bit for Dylan. With hits in both games yesterday, Carlson has a little six-game hitting streak of his own going. He is hitting .333 (7-for-21) during the streak with a .571 slugging percentage (2 doubles and a home run).

Up 6 times in the doubleheader, Dylan took the first pitch 5 times. So far in his young career, Carlson is taking that first pitch 86.9% of the time – a ratio that leads the club.

Goldy

After drawing a walk in 12 straight games, Paul Goldschmidt saw that streak end in the second game yesterday. He was, nonetheless, 2-for-6 in the doubleheader. Since the team came out of quarantine Paul is hitting .340 (17 for 50) with a .507 on base percentage (courtesy of 18 walks).

Paul took the first pitch all six times yesterday. Always a patient hitter, Goldy has been even more so after the restart. Over his last 69 plate appearances, Paul has taken the first pitch 56 times (81.2%). Those at bats have worked out for him quite well, as he’s hitting .400/.571/.625.

For the season, Goldy is taking that first pitch 78.9% of the time, and hitting .370 (20 of 54) when he does. Seventeen of his 20 walks this season have come in those at bats, giving him a .521 on base percentage when he takes that first pitch.

How Solid is the Rotation!

The fact that the Cards are only 9-8 over the last 17 games isn’t really the fault of the starting rotation. With few exceptions, the Cardinal starters have given the team a chance to win almost every game since the re-start. Yesterday was no exception. Kwang Hyun Kim (6 innings, 0 earned runs, 3 hits) and Johan Oviedo (5 innings, 2 runs, 4 hits) combined for 11 innings of 1.64 ERA and a .171 batting average against. All hits were singles.

Since the season re-boot, the Cardinal rotation has chipped in with a 2.42 ERA and a .164 batting average against.

Kim

Kwang Hyun has gone six innings without allowing an earned run in back to back games. In 15.2 innings since his return to the rotation, Kim holds a 0.57 ERA, a .161 batting average against, and a .250 slugging percentage allowed.

Oviedo

One of the interesting numbers from Oviedo’s first two starts is the reluctance of hitters to swing at his first pitch. Perhaps it’s his somewhat imposing presence on the mound. Or perhaps his reputation for occasional wildness. Or perhaps just because he’s a rookie and no one has faced him before. Whatever the reason, only 3 of the 21 batters he faced yesterday offered at his first pitch. In his first game, only one Cub (Javier Baez on his way to a first inning strikeout) swung at his first pitch. That’s 4 out of 39, just barely more than 10%.

NoteBook

In the 4-3 first game loss, the Cards never held a lead. In each of their previous seven games they had held at least a one-run lead at some point of the game. The last game that they never led in was Johan Oviedo’s first start, a 4-2 loss to Chicago on August 19 (second game).

Paul Goldschmidt had made 8 consecutive starts at first base until Matt Carpenter started there in the first game of the double-header (Goldschmidt started that game at DH). Yadier Molina – who has now made 9 consecutive starts behind the plate (including both games of the double-header) now holds the team’s longest streak for consecutive starts at one position.

The Pirates scored first in both games of the doubleheader, continuing a season-long pattern for the Cards. They have now allowed the first run in four straight. After scoring the first run in the first three games of the season, the Cards have only managed that feat 6 times in the last 19 games.

The 2:02 second game was – by one minute – the season’s quickest game. The first game of the August 17 game in Chicago (also a 7-inning game) took 2:03. The two games of the DH averaged 2:25, making this the quickest series (by average time) of the season so far. The three games they played against the White Sox coming out of quarantine averaged 2:33.7.

The 3 runs scored in the series is tied for the fewest runs the Cards have scored in a series so far this year. In the final series before the COVID interruption they scored just 3 runs (also a two game series) in Minnesota. They lost both of those games, too. The 6 runs they allowed are the fewest given up in any series so far this year. They gave 9 to the Twins in late July.

My Designated Hitter Rant

Baseball

Wild, Indeed

The situation looked grim, indeed. And Mike Matheny’s desperation move seemed like it would pay off.

Just off the injury list, and not having pitched for almost three weeks, Kansas City brought Jakob Junis back into the rotation for what they knew would eventually be a bullpen game. Junis gave them 69 pitches that brought KC into the fourth. It was to be the second consecutive abbreviated start for the Royals, as Matt Harvey hadn’t made it out of the third inning the night before.

So now, one night after his bullpen accounted for 6.1 scoreless innings – albeit at the cost of 105 pitches, Mike’s bullpen was front and center again. And they were almost good enough again.

Four relievers (three of them working on consecutive days) bought him 3.1 more scoreless innings, and the game went tied 2-2 into the eighth. That was the inning a pinch home run from Ryan McBroom put the Royals up 3-2 with six desperate outs to get.

St Louis wouldn’t score in their half of the eighth, but they would nonetheless deliver a kidney punch to Kansas City’s tenuous bullpen set-up. Also pitching on consecutive days was KC’s eighth-inning guy, Josh Staumont – a flame-throwing right-hander who entered the game with an 0.73 ERA. He had pitched his scoreless inning the night before, but not without effort – he walked 2 and struck out 2 while tossing 23 pitches.

Josh was still throwing in the upper 90’s, but his command was lacking. Paul DeJong led off the inning dumping a single into right, and Matt Carpenter ground out a 7-pitch walk. A ground ball and a 5-pitch walk issued to Tyler O’Neil loaded the bases and brought closer Trevor Rosenthal into the action for what looked to be a 5-out save. Trevor had saved the Tuesday game at the cost of 16 pitches. Whether he would have enough in the tank for five more outs would be the question.

As far as the first two outs went, the answer was an emphatic “yes.” It took Trevor only six blazing fastballs to strike out the two Cardinal batters he faced, ending the inning and leaving the bases loaded.

The complexion of the bottom of the ninth changed measurably in the top of the ninth when a two-run double off the bat of Whit Merrifield pushed the KC lead to 5-2. It was enough cushion to give Matheny pause about sending Trevor back out for the ninth. With a 3-run lead, perhaps someone else could close the game out?

But after Trevor there was only a mostly un-tested rookie (Kyle Zimmer) and a journeyman (Randy Rosario). So Mike crossed his fingers and sent Rosenthal out for what he hoped would be three very quick outs. Things unraveled almost immediately.

Trevor began the inning with his third consecutive strikeout, but Tommy Edman drained him of 7 more pitches before going down. Then it was Paul Goldschmidt who would grind out a 7-pitch walk. A ground-rule double off the bat of Brad Miller and a 6-pitch walk to DeJong loaded up the bases with only one out and brought Rosenthal nearly to his limit.

Trevor would get one more out – one more strikeout, this time of rookie pinch-hitter Max Schrock. But Max battled him for 7 more pitches. Rosenthal was now at 34 for the night, and 50 over the last two games. He was done. The bases were still loaded, but now with two outs. It was decision time. Zimmer or Rosario?

Zimmer was the right-hander, and the next two Cardinal hitters were righties (Yadier Molina and Tyler O’Neil) so Zimmer made sense. But Kyle had thrown 30 pitches in the first game of the series and needed more than the one day off. So Rosario, the lefty, was the answer.

Randy came right after the Cardinal legend, throwing four straight strikes – with Yadi fouling off the last three. Kansas City was one strike away from taking two-of-three from their cross-state rivals. And then the weirdness took over. After his 0-2 slider dropped into the dirt, his 1-2 slider ran into Molina. It bounced off Yadi’s foot – the third Cardinal batter hit in the game and the seventh Cardinal hit in the three-game series.

And that opened the floodgates.

After throwing strikes with his first four pitches, Rosario would only manage 5 more strikes from his last 15 pitches. O’Neil tied the game with a smash that bounced off third-baseman Maikel Franco. And the rest were walks – 7 pitches to Dylan Carlson and 5 to Kolten Wong giving the Cardinals a four-run ninth and an improbable 6-5 walk off (literally this time) win (boxscore).

The Free-Runner Cardinals

Through the first seven innings of the game, the Cardinals – on a crazy run of getting free baserunners – had drawn only two walks (albeit Carpenter had already been hit twice). Over the last two innings, Kansas City’s bullpen walked six Cardinals and hit another, bringing the total for the game to 11 free runners. Add in their 9 hits, and St Louis finished the game with a .435 on base percentage.

With the win, St Louis has now won 6 of their last 9 games. During this run, the Cards have now scored 46 runs (5.11 runs per). They hold an unremarkable .259 team batting average over those games with 21 extra-base hits during that span – just 5 of them home runs. But they have now drawn 50 walks in those games and had 11 other batters hit. Their on base percentage over the last nine games (.389) is fifteen points higher than their aggregate slugging percentage (.374) over those same games. They loaded the bases 7 times in three games against the Royals. Most of that with significant help.

Goldschmidt

The walkingest of the walking Cardinals is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. He walked 4 times in the KC series, and has 14 walks in the last 9 games (giving him a .538 on base percentage during those games). He has drawn at least one walk in 11 straight games – totaling 16 walks. Since the Cardinal season re-started, Goldy has 17 walks in 15 games. He is hitting .341 in those games with a .516 on base percentage.

There is a sense to this that pitchers are pitching around Goldschmidt. I don’t know that that is entirely accurate. But they are certainly unwilling to give into him. In three of last night’s plate appearances Goldy saw a first pitch strike. He went 0-for-2 with a sacrifice fly in those at bats. His other two appearances started with ball one. He walked in both of those PAs.

For the season, when Goldschmidt’s plate appearance begins with ball one, he ends up walking 32.5% of the time – almost exactly double the league-wide rate of 16.3%.

What this suggests is that once pitchers fall behind Paul they aren’t all that concerned if they walk him. It’s better than trying to come to him in those situations. In his at bats that begin with a ball, Goldy is slashing .370/.575/.630. If he sees strike one, his numbers are still good (.306/.395/.417) but more manageable.

This will no doubt continue until Miller or Carpenter or DeJong or someone else makes someone suffer for continually walking Goldy. The Cards were 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position last night after being 3 for 11 the night before. They had 20 base-runners last night but managed to score 6 only with the help of the hit batsman and the walk both with the bases loaded. The night before they had 15 base-runners, scoring just 4. Until someone starts clearing the bases on a dependable basis, pitchers will be largely unbothered by walking Goldschmidt.

Speaking of that First Pitch

Going into today’s games, there have been 33,147 plate appearances in the major leagues. In about 60% of them (19,985) the first pitch of the at bat has been a strike. Last night, 84 batters came to the plate combined from both teams. Only 40 of them (47.6%) saw first pitch strikes. Both teams fell behind more hitters than they got ahead of. The 46 Cardinal batters who came to the plate saw 24 first-pitch balls and only 22 first pitch strikes. Conversely, the 38 batters that Cardinal pitchers faced saw 20 first pitch balls and only 18 first pitch strikes. I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen that before.

Anyway, the type of game played would be fairly predictable from that statistic. The teams combined for 11 runs on 16 hits, 13 walks and 3 hit batters. The teams’ combined on base percentage was .381 – even though they only combined to hit .239.

Wild, indeed.

Hudson

Long removed from the game before the contest was decided, Dakota Hudson is rounding into form. Stretched out enough, now, that he can go deeper into games, Hudson recorded his first quality start of the season last night. Shaky early, Dakota finished going 6 innings allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits. He walked 3, but 1 was intentional.

Hudson has now made 3 starts since the team came out of quarantine. Those starts have only totaled 14.2 innings as his initial pitch-count was low. But, during those 14.2 innings, Dak gave just 3 runs on only 6 hits. His post-COVID ERA is just 1.84 with batters hitting just .122 against him. The home run he gave last night is the only extra-base hit he’s allowed over those starts.

Cabrera

That first pitch has been an ongoing issue for Genesis Cabrera. Genesis is one of the teams’ top prospects with a high octane arm. But of the 5 batters he faced last night, only one saw a first-pitch strike. For the season, he has thrown ball one to 19 of the 31 batters he has faced (61.3%)

Reyes

Those same issues beset Alex Reyes as well. He threw ball one to six of the ten he faced last night, walking 2 of them. Sixteen of the 30 batters that Alex has faced (53.3%) this season have started their at bat with ball one. Seven of those 16 have gone on to walk.

NoteBook

With all three games taking more than three hours – and last night’s finale enduring for 3:37 – the just concluded series against the Royals turns out to be the longest by average length of any series so far this season. The three games averaged 3:18. The previous 4-game set against Cincinnati had been the longest at 2:55.