Archives for November 2020

Time to Take the Raiders Seriously?

Six weeks ago – out of the blue – the Las Vegas Raiders beat the defending World Champion Kansas City Chiefs. It was easy to dismiss at the time.

Kansas City (at the time) had won 13 in a row (counting playoffs), and nobody wins them all (KC has since won five more consecutive games since that loss – so they are now 18 of their last 19).

As for the Raiders, it was hard to think of them as true contenders. They had just lost their previous two games – yielding 66 points in the process. In fact, when you add in the 32 that Kansas City scored in the loss (it was a 40-32 Raider win), and the 45 points that Tampa Bay laid on them the next week, then you are looking at a Raider team that allowed 30 or more points five times in their first six games in a 3-3 start to the season. Clearly that surprise win against the Chiefs was just “one of those games” and nothing to be overly impressed with.

But after being slapped around by Tampa Bay, Las Vegas went on a little three-game winning streak. It wasn’t an overly impressive array of teams they beat (Cleveland, the Chargers and Denver) but it did inflate their record to 6-3 as they prepared for last Sunday Night’s rematch against Kansas City.

Surely the Chiefs – remembering their Week Five defeat – would show up with their A game and avenge their only loss in over a year in a big way. Surely the defending champs would expose their hated division rival.

And so, when quarterback Derek Carr completed a 12-play, 75-yard drive with a one-yard bullet to Jason Witten in the near-right corner of the end zone to give Las Vegas a 31-28 lead with 1:43 left in the game, I started to do some re-assessment.

It is, perhaps, time to take the Raiders seriously.

Vegas didn’t win the game. One hundred and three seconds with a time out is far too much time to leave Patrick Mahomes, who, as is his habit, drove Kansas City 75 yards in just 1:15, winning the game, 35-31, with a 22 yard toss to a wide open Travis Kelce with 28 ticks left (gamebook) (summary). But even in defeat Jon Gruden’s Raiders made their statement.

This is still a team with shortcomings – especially on the defensive side. And, in fact, I still don’t see them as a playoff team (an early-season loss to Buffalo will probably be the tie-breaking game that allows the Bills in and keeps the Raiders out). But this team is clearly building itself to compete with football’s best team (arguably). Even in defeat, Las Vegas pushed the KC defense to the edge. They converted 6 of 9 third downs, and scored touchdowns on 4 of 5 red zone trips.

More impressively, they almost completely broke down the Chief pass defense – which had been one of the best in the NFL. Entering the week, opposing passers were only earning 6.64 yards per attempted pass with an 11-9 touchdown to interception ratio. While the NFL average passer rating sits at 94.5, KC opponents were only managing an 81.4 rating – football’s fourth lowest.

But for all of the gaudy statistics, Kansas City’s pass defense is sometimes held back by a mediocre pass rush. Nineteen quarterback sacks in their first 9 games isn’t anything to get excited over. It was a flaw that the Raiders took full advantage of.

Carr’s first two passes of the night went for 26 and 29 yards – the first against man coverage and the second against a zone. Both times the Chiefs’ four-man rush applied insignificant pressure. It set the tone for the night. In general Derek was presented with a comfortably clean pocket. He wasn’t sacked, was hurried only a few times, scrambled just twice and averaged 3.05 seconds in the pocket. Last week, only two quarterbacks spent more time sitting in the pocket and surveying defenses.

The time and comfort allowed Carr and his receivers to exploit both the gaps in the Chief zone (especially with TE Darren Waller) and the difficulties that the KC cornerbacks (Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland) have holding up in man coverage – especially with little pass rush pressure.

Waller (7 catches for 88 yards) and wideout Nelson Agholor (6 catches for 88 yards) were the primary beneficiaries. Agholor was the one who spent most of the evening lining up against Breeland.

The Chiefs did mix in some blitzes – and managed to get occasional pressure when they sent extra rushers. But even that tactic mostly failed as the extra pressure couldn’t compensate for a compromised secondary. Carr’s first touchdown pass, for example – a 17-yarder to Agholor – came when Kansas City sent six rushers after Derek. But the blitz was picked up. Waller ran a vertical of his own from the left slot that he turned toward the middle of the field – drawing Tyrann Mathieu with him. This left Breeland all alone against Agholor, who simply sprinted past him and gathered in the throw in the back corner of the end zone.

Sometimes the blitz was self-defeating. With the Raiders facing a second-and-nine on their own 33 with 2 minutes left in the first half, the Chiefs sent five rushers, and with Josh Jacobs whiffing on blitzing linebacker Ben Niemann, Neimann came free enough to flush Carr from the pocket.

As Derek pulled the ball down and started to sprint up the middle, Mathieu dropped his coverage on Waller (who was running a crossing pattern, right-to-left across the field) and turned to make a play on the scrambling quarterback. The problem was that Tyrann a) dropped his coverage before Carr had reached the line of scrimmage, and b) was directly in front of Derek when he stopped running and turned toward the line. Waller kept running. Carr noted this and tossed him the ball when he was wide open up the left sideline. That play gained 18 yards.

More than a few times, KC sent six rushers and tried to play zone behind it with just five defenders. That almost never worked out, as Derek dumped short passes into the voids in coverage, allowing his receivers more yards after the catch than they normally get. Carr finished the contest with more of his passing yards after the catch (155) than air yards before the catch (120).

The game plan was as well executed as it was well conceived. Sometimes Carr doesn’t get the recognition due him for the accuracy of his passes. Derek was 23 for 31 in the game. Two of those were throw aways, and of his 6 other incompletions, 3 were drops. So Carr was catchably accurate on 26 of his 29 throws.

Of course, a clean pocket has a lot to do with that.

This is a weakness of the Chiefs that hasn’t really hurt them so far this year. The league’s top scoring offense frequently takes the anxiety out of playing defense – for Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed an opposing passer a rating of 100 points or better only three times this year – and two of those were the Raiders (126.5 in Week Five and 119.7 last Sunday).

In the end it was too much Mahomes. Patrick rebounded from a mediocre first half (an 82.4 rating) to shoot out the lights I the second half. He completed 20 of his last 24 passes (83.3%) for 203 yards and that game-winning touchdown pass with less than half a minute to go. His second half rating was 115.8.

Gruden and the Raiders still have some work to do. But they have clearly given notice.

Some Good KC Defensive Notes

While the pass defense got pushed around more than usual, the KC run defense seems to be turning the corner. In their Week Five loss, Las Vegas bludgeoned them on the ground to the tune of 144 yards on 35 carries – including 2 rushing touchdowns. Kansas City, in fact, was scorched for more than 100 rushing yards in all of its first five games, and six times in the first seven. At that point, they were serving up 149.9 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.

But beginning with the game against the Jets in Week Eight, the run defense has tightened up considerably. The last three opponents (Jets, Panthers and Raiders) have averaged only 95.3 rushing yards per game, and just 3.8 yards a carry.

The Jets, of course, are not among football’s top running teams, but the Panthers rank fifteenth and the Raiders rank seventh in rushing, entering the game averaging 139.2 yards per game.

But on Sunday evening – while the passing game was having its way – the Kansas City defense muffled the Raiders best attempts to establish a running attack. Las Vegas finished the game with just 89 ground yards on 26 attempts (3.4 yards per).

One of the pillars of this defensive resurgence is interior lineman Derrick Nnadi. The Raiders found it nearly impossible to get under him with their double-teams.

The game was still a 7-7 contest with 4:01 left in the first. The Raiders faced first-and-ten on their own 40. They called a run designed to burst off right guard, but there was no movement on the line as Nnadi withstood Brandon Parker and Gabe Jackson to deny the play.

Now, with 8:41 left in the second quarter, Las Vegas was again in a first-and-ten, this time on the Kansas City 32 yard line. Game was tied again at 14. Now Derrick was absorbing blocks from the other side of the line from both Rodney Hudson and Denzelle Good. That allowed Willie Gay to flow cleanly from the second level to fill the intended hole off left guard. Running back Devontae Booker tried to cut the run to the left sideline, but was corralled by Tanoh Kpassagnon – who had defeated the attempted block of Witten.

And so it went.

Derrick’s biggest play of the evening, though, was a stop he made on first-and-goal from the 1-yard line. There was 2:10 left in the game, and KC was clinging at this point to a 28-24 lead. Nnadi imploded the entire middle of the line, blowing right under Hudson (who had his arm wrapped around his neck, by the way). Jacobs was supposed to leap over the pile for the score, but by the time the pile reached him, it was too far to leap.

Two plays later, Las Vegas scored anyway on the touchdown pass to Witten. Typical, as it turned out. For most of the contest, the passing attack came to the rescue of the running game.

It’s encouraging progress. But the Chiefs are still going to need more pass rush from their front four – maybe by as early as this week when they face Tampa Bay.

Football

Frank Reich Gets It

OK coach, here’s your dilemma.

You are coming out at halftime, down by 14 points. Your game plan is in a bit of disarray. You tried to run the ball some in the first half, but came into the locker room with just 43 rushing yards, and averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.

By the way, you entered the game averaging just 3.8 yards per rush (ranking twenty-ninth in the 32-team league) and you were facing the NFL’s third-highest scoring offence paced by football’s top-ranked passer.

So, what’s your plan?

More than one team has been known to abandon the run entirely in such circumstances (a couple of weeks ago, you’ll recall that Tampa Bay ran just twice in the second half – one of those a kneel-down at the end – of a blowout loss to New Orleans). And the Buccaneers aren’t the only team that seems to look for any excuse to leave their running game behind.

Most teams in this situation won’t entirely abandon the run. They’ll sprinkle one in now and then, trying to keep the appearance of balance. But they will mostly call twice as many passing plays from that point forward.

You might wonder why that is. There is – at the beginning of the third quarter – still plenty of time. But for some reason, there is usually little thought – much less commitment – to establishing the running game.

There are, I believe, several factors at play. On some basic level, I think that some offensive coordinators feel that running the ball in that situation is like giving up – as though the only way to claw yourself back into the game is to come out throwing. (I fear some fans feel that way, too).

Additionally, the glory of being an offensive coordinator is drawing up passing plays. Few people are overly impressed with running plays – no matter how clever.

Add to this the mythos of the passing game – the possibility of that one big play that can immediately turn the momentum of the game in your favor.

No, I’m afraid most of the time the temptation to start throwing the ball all over the field is too strong to resist. In some coaches’ mind, running the ball is only for killing the clock at the end of the game. Otherwise, it’s a wasted play.

On a weekly basis, I see teams in this situation, and I keep wondering if any of them understand the value of running the ball in that circumstance. I wonder if there are any of them out there that really get it.

Last Sunday, I found one. Indianapolis’ Frank Reich gets it.

His game last Sunday presented as Aaron Rodgers and his 116.4 passer rating (best in football) against a Colts defense that ranked first overall (in yards allowed) and second against the pass. Furthermore, Indy came into the contest holding opposing passers to a 78.9 rating – the lowest permitted by any team.

It was the irresistible force against the immovable object.

But, during a nightmare first thirty minutes, the immovable object that formerly was the Indianapolis pass defense got itself moved all over the field. The Packers put 4 touchdowns on the board, 3 of them on passes from Rodgers. Aaron took a 121.9 rating into the locker room, having completed 13 of 16 passes (that’s 81.3%) for 160 yards (that’s ten yards per attempted pass).

When you considered that running the football was not a strength of that offense, along with the strong possibility that Rodgers might keep doing in the second half what he did to you in the first, you could make a very strong case for putting the ball in Philip Rivers’ hands and hoping he could work a miracle.

So, imagine my surprise when Frank opened the second half with 8 consecutive running plays. Imagine the message that sends – to both teams.

When Rivers finally threw his first pass of the second half (a one-yard completion to De’Michael Harris), Indy’s initial drive of the half had already consumed 55 yards and four-and-a-half minutes.

It was the opening salvo of a drive that would eventually reach 14 plays (only one more run) and 56 yards while eating up the first 7 minutes and 17 seconds of the quarter.

The drive only ended in a field goal (trimming the deficit to 28-17) and so was quickly forgotten. But that drive and those running plays re-wrote the narrative of the game. On their subsequent possession, Green Bay went three and out – their lack of offensive rhythm very much influenced by the length of the Indianapolis drive, and the next thing you know, the Colt offense was back on the field with the ball at their own 40. Three minutes and 57 seconds later, Indy was in the end zone, with a subsequent two-point conversion cutting the Packer lead to just 3 with a full quarter to go. And the comeback was on.

Here is the principle that Reich understands that eludes most other coaches. Most coaches trailing in the second half think only of points – and throwing the football seems the most direct way to put points on the board. More important, though, than points is control of the game and the momentum that comes with that control.

For the first seven-plus minutes of the second half, Indianapolis imposed its will on Green Bay. Even though they still trailed by 11 after that drive, they were now in control of the game. The line of scrimmage belonged to them, and the final result – a 34-31 overtime win (gamebook) (summary) was really – at that point – a foregone conclusion.

Over the last 32:50 of the game (counting in 2:50 of overtime), Indianapolis ran the ball 24 times and controlled the clock for 21:02 of that time.

As for the Packers, their game plan dissolved in the second half. Green Bay is one of the teams that occasionally forgets that it needs its running game. After gaining 56 rushing yards on 14 first-half runs, the Packers employed the running game only four times in the second half –for just 10 yards. Rodgers filled in the void with 22 passes, but without his first-half efficiency. Aaron completed just 14 of them for 151 yards.

The offense also committed a critical turnover – an overtime fumble that set up the game winning field goal.

Rivers finished the contest with 288 passing yards and 3 touchdown tosses of his own – good for a 107.2 rating. He and the defense that held Green Bay to one field goal over the last two-plus quarters were the stars of the game accounts. But all of it grew out of the beginning of the second half when Frank Reich let his offensive line put its collective foot on the neck of the Packer defense.

The game was never the same thereafter.

Playoff Implications – NFC

The loss drops Green Bay a game behind New Orleans for the top seed in the NFC. The Packers hold the potential tie-breaker (a head-to-head win in Week Three), but are now trailing the Saints.

New Orleans – in its first game this season without Drew Brees – earned a 24-9 victory against Atlanta. This was Taysom Hill’s first start at quarterback, and he acquitted himself well. There is never a “great” time to have your starting quarterback go down. But as I pointed out last week, if the Saints have to loose Brees for a while, this would be the stretch of their schedule to do it in. Hill’s performance gives New Orleans every confidence that they can weather the storm.

But the biggest news affecting the NFC side of the playoff race is the revival of the New Orleans defense. The Falcon game – during which Atlanta scored no touchdowns while managing just 248 yards and 14 first downs – was the third consecutive dominant outing for the Saints’ defense.

Beginning with their vivisection of Tampa Bay in Week Nine, New Orleans has yielded a total of 25 points over the last three games (which is about the NFL average for one game), during which time they have surrendered totals of 1 touchdown, 109 rushing yards and 2.5 yards per rush against them. On the passing end, Tom Brady, Nick Mullens and Matt Ryan have combined for a 52.1 passer rating, while being sacked 13 times and intercepted 7 times (among 9 total takeaways).

It’s understandable that not much was made of their pushing around an injured San Francisco team, but Tampa Bay is one of the most highly regarded offenses in the league, and while the Falcons have struggled on defense, their offense has still been one of the more productive outfits in the league. Entering the game, the Falcons were averaging 27 points a game and were fourth in the league in passing offense. For his part, Ryan came into the contest carrying a 99.0 rating, founded on completing 67.2% of his passes, with a 15-5 touchdown-to-interception rate. Until the game against the Saints, he hadn’t thrown more than one interception in any game this season, or been sacked more than four times. In eight of those first nine games, Matt had been sacked once or twice. The only blemish was a Week Four loss in Green Bay, where Ryan hit the deck 4 times.

Against the Saints, Ryan was picked twice and sacked 8 times on his way to a season-low 48.5 rating.

The defense was, really, the one weakness that looked like it might keep New Orleans out of the top seed. Now, with the defense coming to the party, it looks like the Saints will be very hard to catch.

Meanwhile, in the NFC East, it’s increasingly difficult to hold on to Philadelphia as the champion there. Before their Week Nine bye, the Eagles had squeaked out important division wins against the Giants and Cowboys that seemed to put them in the driver’s seat. More than that, the Eagles had the look at that point of a team that was about to figure themselves out.

But, coming out of the bye, they have lost winnable games against the Giants and Browns. If you look at this team, you realize that except for those two wins just before their bye, the Eagles are a 1-6-1 team, with their only other win against a banged up San Francisco team (although, I grant that you could say nearly the same thing about every other team in this division).

All of the NFC East contenders have increasingly tough schedules for the rest of the season – but the Eagles might have the toughest. Coming up for them over the next four weeks are Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans and Arizona. Then they go on the road into Dallas. Even in the less-than-mediocre NFC East, the Eagles will have to get a lot better real fast to hang in there.

Looking at the rest of the division – and based on the fact that they’ve already swept their season series with Washington – I’m going to pencil the New York Football Giants in as the champ of this division. The Cowboys won an emotional contest against Minnesota last week. But emotion is something you can only ride for so long. Dallas will finish the season going into New York to play the Giants in the game that will probably decide this division. Even though there may not be a significant number of fans in the stands, the fact that the Cowboys will have to combat the elements slides the advantage to the Giants in this one.

Monday Night Defense

The 55 rushing yards that the Colts piled up in their first 8 rushes of their second half were more ground yards than either of the Monday Night contestants managed for the entire game. The Los Angeles Rams – who earned the 27-24 victory (gamebook) (summary) ended the night with 37 yards on 20 carries, while Tampa Bay managed just 42 yards on 18 carries.

The Rams went into halftime nursing a 17-14 lead with the running game having contributed only 5 yards (on just 6 carries). For their part, the Buccaneers ran 10 times for just 19 yards. A 6-yard run from Ronald Jones was the longest running play for either side in the first half. For the game, the single longest running play for either side belonged to the Rams’ Malcom Brown, who squeaked out a 14-yard gain off a draw-play on third-and-16.

Certainly, both teams might have tried to run the ball a little more – but on Monday Night there would have been little point. In the clash between the NFL’s second- (LA) and third – (TB) best defenses, the game belonged to both defensive lines. Remembering that the average running play in the NFL this season earns 4.31 yards – 2.43 yards before contact and 1.88 after, it’s instructive to note that as these two teams combined to average 2.08 yards total per rush, they managed just 1.13 yards before contact and 0.95 yards after contact.

For the first 30 minutes, the passing attacks were enough to compensate for the missing running attacks. Brady hit 16 of 24 (albeit for just 119 yards). He threw a touchdown pass and wasn’t intercepted (a 92.2 rating). The Rams’ Jared Goff completed 21 of 25 (84%) for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns (without interception) – a 128.7 rating.

In particular, the Ram game plan – unwilling to let the high-blitz Buccaneer defense tee-off on their quarterback – emphasized the quick pass. While all of the NFL averages 7.85 air yards per attempted pass, Jared was tossing at targets just 5.20 yards downfield. The attack was heavily wide-receiver oriented, as Cooper Kupp was targeted 13 times (he caught 11 for 145 yards) and Robert Woods had 15 passes tossed in his direction (he caught 12 for another 130 yards and a touchdown), but even at that it wasn’t an up-the-field attack. Goff threw only one pass over 20 yards in the air, opting instead to throw short to the receivers and letting them add yards after the catch. Kupp was an average of 6.5 yards up the field when he made his catches, and Woods was an average of just 5.1 yards from scrimmage when he hauled in his passes. Both receivers gained most of their yardage after the catch (74 for Kupp and 69 for Woods).

Jared also made good use of his tight ends. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett combined for eight catches for 46 yards.

Both passing attacks flailed in the second half. Goff finished with just 164 passing yards on his last 18 completions (9.11 per) and had his one touchdown pass offset by 2 second half interceptions – a disappointing 66.8 rating. As for Tampa Bay, Tom Brady endured a miserable second half. Under intense pressure – especially middle pressure – Brady finished just 10 of 24 (41.7%) for just 97 yards (4.04 yards per attempt and 9.7 per completion). He also threw 2 interceptions to offset his one touchdown pass and finished the half with a 32.8 passer rating.

There were 20 points scored in the second half – 17 of them off turnovers.

Increasingly we hear Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians speak in frustrated tones about his high-priced quarterback. You would get the feeling from him that Brady’s failings were the cause of the Buccaneer offensive inconsistencies. My read is that Brady has played pretty well overall. The problems have been elsewhere.

Bruce wants to run a home-run ball offense – which is all well and good. But he needs pass protection to be able to do that. Especially in the second half, when the Rams knew they didn’t have to worry about the run, they poured into the Buc backfield rushing Tom on nearly every play. Unlike Goff, Brady kept trying to deliver footballs up the field – he threw six passes over 20 yards in the air – going 0-for-6 with both of his interceptions.

Antonio Brown – another down-field target – has almost completely absorbed Scott Miller’s snaps. Monday night Brown played 43 snaps, while Scotty had only 15, getting no official targets. Miller is the quick sideline-to-sideline receiver that would run the patterns that Julian Edelman ran for him in New England.

And when Tom does try to check it down, he hasn’t gotten a lot of help there either. Leonard Fournette dropped 3 passes Monday night, and his other running back (Jones) dropped another. Both have now dropped 5 passes already this season and are both dropping more than 10% of the passes thrown to them (the NFL average is 4.69%).

It’s enough to make one long for James White.

Candidly, as long as Arians continues to push the blame onto Brady’s shoulders, the longer it will take Tampa bay to fix things. If you want to run the offense that he wants to run, you can’t have constant pressure up the middle, you have to balance the game plan with a running attack, and people have to catch the passes thrown to them. There’s enough systemic blame to go around, here.

About the Tampa Bay Defense

While the offense has scuffled some in Tampa, the defense has been ringing up gaudy numbers. But the Buccaneer D isn’t without its share of flaws – issues that will almost certainly cost them in the playoffs.

The Bucs are tied with Pittsburgh as football’s second-most blitzing team. They send an extra rusher 41.9% of the time. But this is more from necessity than choice. Unlike the Rams, Tampa Bay can’t really generate much of a pass rush from their four down-linemen. If they don’t blitz, they don’t pressure.

This means that DC Todd Bowles can only call man coverages when they blitz, because man coverages with no pass rush are an invitation to disaster.

Frankly, zone coverage without pass rush pressure doesn’t work out well either – as witnessed by the 69.2% completions against this defense. But at least the zone defenses allow fewer big plays off the completions.

And so, the Bucs blitz and blitz and blitz. And it mostly works out well. But it’s a tightrope walk that will, eventually, backfire on them.

There’s a lot of talent – offensive and defensive – in Tampa Bay, enough for people to tout them as Super Bowl contenders. But here in Week 12, the warts are starting to show.

Speaking of Warts

After a magical 2019, Baltimore has suffered through a disappointing 2020. Defenses have caught up a bit with the seemingly unstoppable offense of a year ago – setting up the precipitous decline from the 14-2 team they were last year to the 6-4 team they currently are.

Their last loss, though, might have been particularly galling – and particularly foreboding. Playing at home against the team that ended their dream last year, the Ravens opened up a 21-10 lead with only 9:34 left in the third quarter. For all of the offensive inconsistency that they have endured recently, the one constant has been that defense. Football’s top blitzing defense (44.0% through their first 9 games), the Ravens were also the toughest to score against – having allowed just 165 points to that point in the season. An eleven-point lead with a little more than a quarter-and-a-half to go should have been money in the bank.

But – as the Colts did against the Packers – the Titans came back against the Ravens. After being completely disrupted by the Raven’s blitz in the first half, quarterback Ryan Tannehill picked the Raven secondary – blitz and all – apart in the second half, bringing Tennessee all the way back for a 30-24 overtime victory (gamebook) (summary).

The Ravens certainly came after Ryan. They blitzed on 19 of his 35 drop-backs (54.3%). And for the first 30 minutes, it was a scheme that worked. Ryan was 7 for 13 for just 42 yards, a touchdown and a pick at halftime – a 54.0 rating.

But the Titans shored up the protection and started taking advantage of the Baltimore blitzes in the second half. Tannehill completed 15 of 18 (83.3%) in the second half for 217 yards (12.06 yards per pass attempt) with one touchdown – a 135.4 rating.

In the two biggest passes of the second half – the 50-yarder to Corey Davis that jump-started the comeback, and the 11-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Brown – Tennessee took advantage of cornerback Marcus Peters in coverage. Peters was the signature addition to the Raven defense when they got him last year – and Marcus is one of the most dangerous ball-hawks in the game. But Peters will give up big plays, too – one reason the Rams were willing to part with him.

If you are a Raven fan, then you are hoping that this was just a one-off situation. The last thing you need right now is for your defense (which was pushed around for 320 total yards in the second half and 4:39 of overtime) to start to become mortal.

The Raven Passing Attack – Again

A couple weeks ago when they almost beat Pittsburgh, it looked like the Ravens had re-discovered the secret of their passing game. Lamar Jackson – as you remember – came out flinging quick, short passes underneath the coverages. Whatever was re-discovered that week has been lost again.

Jackson averaged 9.93 air yards for every attempted pass – one of the five highest totals for the week. Even though he threw the ball only 29 times, 6 of those (20.7%) went over 20 yards downfield. He did complete two of them (including one for a touchdown), but also fueled the Titan comeback with an interception when he overthrew his target.

Baltimore keeps trying to prove to the world (and maybe to themselves) that Jackson is a legitimate deep threat with his arm. So far, without measurable positive results.

Playoff Implications – AFC

The Ravens, the Titans, the Colts. Over the last handful of weeks, these teams have kind of taken the measure of each other. Baltimore pushed Indianapolis around in Week Nine. Indy came back the next week and handled the Titans – who last Sunday did unto the Ravens. It’s a bit of rock-paper-scissors with playoff implications. With their win over Green Bay, I have to start taking Indianapolis seriously – and acknowledge that their win over Tennessee (in Tennessee) gives Indy the inside on the division title – especially if they can hold serve on their home court against the Titans this Sunday.

If they do, that would position the Colts as the four seed, and drop the Titans into the five slot. With their loss to Tennessee, the Ravens would fall to the sixth seed.

Meanwhile, I’m going to backtrack on the Dolphins. Last week when I speculated about them, perhaps, claiming the second seed in the conference, there was a caveat – unless this young team started losing games they were supposed to win. That’s more-or-less what I saw in their loss to the Broncos.

This Miami team seems to be a team capable of rising to the occasion. They will play very well in big games against top teams. But young teams sometimes have trouble sustaining that focus and intensity against lesser teams. Kansas City (winners of a gritty contest against the Raiders) are again my favorites for that second seed, with Miami still looking to me like a solid number three.

At least, that’s how I’m seeing it this week.

Football

Eventually the Pressure Gets to Everybody

There was 10:43 left in the game, with Seattle down by ten points and facing a second-and-seven from their own 48. Trying to disguise their coverage, the Rams lined Kenny Young in the middle linebacker position, even though his responsibility in the zone scheme would be the right flat. So, when running back Alex Collins ran straight toward that area at the snap, Young had to quickly vacate the middle.

When Seattle wide receiver D.K. Metcalf curled into that void left in the middle, he was about as wide open as he would be the whole game. He had first down distance. But the throw never came.

At the snap, Los Angeles linebacker Terrell Lewis blitzed, and there was no one to account for him. Tight end Greg Olsen – who lined up over him – released immediately into the pattern, and Duane Brown – the tackle on that side – was occupied with Micah Kiser. Lewis stepped gingerly into the backfield, as if he couldn’t understand that there was no one there to block him. He hesitated for just a second, but it was enough to give quarterback Russell Wilson the moment he needed to make the throw to Metcalf to pick up the first down.

But Wilson froze. Knowing that Lewis was coming, Russell pulled the ball into his chest, ducked his head, and braced himself for the impact that was still about two seconds away.

Russell Wilson is and has been for several years one of the great competitors in the league – and, in fact, has been one of the faces of the league. But by the fourth quarter of Sunday afternoon’s game in Los Angeles, Russell was pretty much shell shocked. The relentless pressure that the Rams poured upon will do that.

Eventually the pressure gets to everybody. And for Wilson these days, the pressure is coming from many different directions.

In his first possession of this game, Wilson led the Seahawks on an excellent 7-play, 78-yard touchdown drive. They held the ball for 9 plays and over four minutes the next time they had the ball, but ended up punting.

When Wilson and the offense came out for their third possession, they trailed by ten points. In their Week Nine game against Buffalo, they were down 14-0 before they could blink. When you play in front of a defense ranked last in the NFL in yards allowed and twenty-eighth in points allowed, you feel pressure from more than just the defense lining up against you. You get pressure from your own defense.

Wilson also has the pressure to be the running game as well, as the Seahawks cannot keep healthy running backs in their backfield. So all of that responsibility falls on him as well. Wilson led his team in rushing again against the Rams, accounting for 60 of their 113 ground yards. For the season, Russell has rushed for 325 yards. Of the players on the active roster, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are tied for second on the team in rush yards. They each have 88.

It’s a lot to put on the back of Wilson, who also spent much of Sunday afternoon with hundreds of pounds of defensive linemen on his back as Seattle ran into the buzz saw that is the Ram defense. Los Angeles sacked Wilson 6 times (5 of those in the second half), hit him numerous other times, and held him to a passer rating of 57.0 – his worst single-game rating since Week 14 of the 2018 season – on their way to a 23-16 victory (gamebook) (summary). In a 21-7 conquest of the Minnesota Vikings, Wilson was just 10 for 20 for only 72 yards with no touchdowns against 1 interception.

As far as the sacks go, Russell has now been sacked at least twice in every game this year. You would have to go back to Week Three of the 2019 season to find the last time Wilson hasn’t been sacked in a game. He has now been sacked at least 3 times in 5 of the 9 games played so far this year, getting sacked 4 times or more in four of those games.

This issue has reached its tipping point over the last two games, which has seen Wilson go down 11 times – the basis for all the turnovers coming out of the quarterback position recently. In Seattle’s first 5 games, Wilson turned the ball over only 3 times. He has coughed it up 10 times in the last 4 games – 7 of those in the last two contests.

This has all led to another source of pressure on Wilson – pressure from the coaching staff.

But there is more than enough blame to go around, here. Wilson should have expected better from his coaching staff, too, which called very few zone-beating plays, even though a high percentage of zone was expected.

All that being said, though, Wilson looked as disoriented as I have ever seen him. With 7:59 to go in the game, Wilson turned a third-and-four at the Ram 38-yard line into a third-and-nine as he watched the play clock expire. He then threw an interception on third-and-nine.

On Seattle’s last drive, with about a minute and a half left in the game, Wilson scrambled 14 yards for a first down. But with the sidelines in sight, Russell slid to a stop in bounds that kept the clock winding – even though the Hawks were down by two scores.

Repeatedly, Wilson seemed hesitant – waiting to see what might develop instead of anticipating which receivers were about to uncover. At times, he seemed a little lost.

As galling as anything else, Wilson lost the feel for his signature moon-ball – those long highlight reel rainbow throws that arch impossibly high over the defender and drop straight down into the receiver’s arms. It’s a unique skill that has made Wilson one of the league’s best deep ball threats.

On Sunday, Wilson was 0-for-6 with an interception on passes over 20 yards, with his throws coming out surprisingly flat and more like line drives that either gave defensive backs the opportunity to make a play on it, or that went soaring over the receiver’s head.

With 4:27 left in the first half, Seattle ran one of their few zone-beating plays as Greg Olsen’s vertical route demanded the attention of Darious Williams, pulling him away from his responsibility for the deep left. Freddie Swain leapt into the void and ran to the corner of the end zone, wide open. Wilson threw it over his head.

With 13:47 left, D.K Metcalf flew up the left sideline, gaining a step on Jalen Ramsey, only to have Wilson’s throw graze off his fingertips.

With 52 seconds left in the contest, another middle vertical from Olsen held the safety on the right side (Nick Scott), leaving Williams all alone against Tyler Lockett. At one point, Lockett was about 7 yards behind Williams. But by the time the throw arrived (and this one would have been perfect), Williams had closed the gap enough that he could launch himself into the air, and – left arm at full extension – deflect the pass away.

So went the day for Russell Wilson – and for the Ram defense. Especially Darious Williams who had both interceptions to go with the miracle pass defense.

Defense Is For Real

Nitpicking Wilson’s performance would be easy enough – he didn’t have his best day. But after watching the game, I came away more impressed with the Ram defense than I am concerned about the Seahawk offense.

Over the last six games this Ram defense has really hit its stride. They have given all of 7 offensive touchdowns (and several of those have come on short fields). In those games, opposing passers are rating just 76.0 and opposing running games are gaining just 85.5 yards a game and 3.7 yards per carry.

The Rams blitzed Wilson some – just 26% of the time (which is less than the 29.7% league average). The Rams aren’t a heavy blitz team – sending an extra rusher only 28.4% of the time. But that’s because the Rams don’t need to blitz. With havoc-wreckers like Leonard Floyd, Michael Brockers and especially Aaron Donald on the line, the Rams are one of those teams that have the luxury of getting great pressure from four rushers and playing disciplined zone defense behind them.

The two lynch-pins of the defense are Donald – whose greatness is challenging the limits of the English language to codify it, and cornerback Ramsey – who can generally make any feared wide receiver disappear. He did this, mostly, to Metcalf. DK entered the game second in the NFL in receiving yards with 788, third in average yards per catch with 18.3, and second in receiving touchdowns with 8. He exited the game with 2 catches for 28 yards, mostly lined up against Ramsey.

Here, though, is another coaching issue. I don’t really remember Ramsey switching sides of the field to take Metcalf, and he never took Metcalf when he lined up in the slot. He stayed almost exclusively on the defensive right corner. It was the Seattle game plan that kept lining DK up over Ramsey, making most of what the Rams wanted to do that much easier.

There are several things the Rams can do differently and better when they rematch against the Rams in Week 16. But none of them are likely to matter too much if they can’t find a way to still Aaron Donald.

By reputation one of the elite linemen in football, Aaron was every bit of that last Sunday. On multiple occasions, Seattle tried to triple-team Donald. Mostly that benefitted the other pass rushers.

With 5:25 left in the third, the entire left side of the Seattle offensive line (tackle Brandon Shell, guard Damien Lewis, and center Kyle Fuller) took on Donald. When the Rams blitzed, running back Nick Bellore was forced to stay in and try to block blitzing linebacker Micah Kiser. When Kiser blew right past Bellore, Wilson was forced to evacuate the pocket, running right into the waiting arms of Floyd.

Other times even the triple team wasn’t enough to slow down Donald.

With 2:02 left in the game, the Hawks faced first-and-ten on the Ram 48. Seattle assigned Fuller, Jamarco Jones (playing guard after Mike Iupati went down) and Dallas to neutralize Aaron. They couldn’t. Donald churned his way through all of them, still arriving at the quarterback in time to force a bad throw.

As well as the zone coverage in the back played, there were many times that the pressure covered up one of their breakdowns.

With 14 seconds left in the first half, Lockett turned cornerback Troy Hill completely around as he ran through the back of the zone. But by that time, Russell was running for his life. Olsen had barely brushed Floyd as Leonard came pouring in all but unabated on his pass rush.

With 9:28 left in the game, safety Jordan Fuller settled down on Lockett’s cross, allowing Metcalf to blow past Williams (one of the few times that Seattle shifted Metcalf to the right side). Again, Russell never had the chance. This time linebacker Justin Hollins beat Shell to collapse the pocket.

The Los Angeles defensive concept puts quarterbacks in quite a bind. There were almost always receivers open early underneath the zones. An offense could choose – if it wanted to – to create a game plan around three-yard dump passes and hope they can drive the field without committing a penalty or dropping a pass.

But if they decide to hold the ball and wait for something to develop downfield, they will usually run out of time to come back to their check down route. Unless you can stop Donald, you will have to throw quickly or not at all.

One way or another, the pressure will eventually get to them.