Archives for November 2020

Sometimes it’s the Small Things

Inserted as the starting quarterback from day one, 2019’s first overall draft pick endured a trying year. Taking 96% of the offensive snaps, Kyler Murray – the legendary Texas high school quarterback who never lost a game – oversaw a fairly dismal 5-10-1 season.

It wasn’t all his fault, of course. But it wasn’t all not his fault, either. None of his numbers jump out at you. As a passer his touchdown-to-interception rate was 20-12 and his passer rating was below the league average at 87.4. He led the league in one category – being sacked. He went down 48 times.

As a runner, Kyler ran for 544 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per rush. That – the running – is what I remember most from his rookie season. There is almost a mesmerizing quality to Kyler Murray’s runs. At 5-10, Kyler is shorter than I am, and he runs with very short strides – but those short, choppy strides come so fast that they almost blur into each other as he runs – almost the way a hummingbird’s wings blur together when the bird is in flight.

Funny looking? In a sense, yes. But undoubtedly effective as he consistently buzzed – hummingbird-like – around and around would-be tacklers.

Arizona began 2020 on a much more positive note, winning two of its first three – including a surprising opening game conquest of the San Francisco 49ers. Encouraging, but the biggest difference in the offense only seemed to be Kyler shouldering more of the running game. In 2019 he averaged 5.8 rushes a game for just 34 yards a game. Three games into the season, he had carried the ball 26 times for 187 yards – including 91 in the win over the 49ers. He had rushed for 4 touchdowns in those games, averaging 7.19 yards per rush.

But the passing didn’t seem notably improved. Completing a modest 66.37% of his passes, Kyler was below the NFL average in both yards per pass (6.96) and passer rate (79.7). His 4 touchdown passes being offset by 5 interceptions.

But then, in a very strange Week Four, Kyler kind of turned a corner, albeit in a 31-21 loss to Carolina. He ran for 78 more yards, but was held out of the end zone (as a runner). He also fumbled the ball away. As a passer, he completed 24 passes, but for an inconsequential 133 yards. But, his 24 completions came in just 31 attempts (a 77.42%). And, while not being intercepted, Kyler threw 3 touchdown passes. It all added up to a 116.7 rating.

And all of a sudden, Murray was reborn as an NFL passer. He led them to three consecutive victories, with the Cardinals scoring 30 or more points in each of them. While it would have been more impressive if these points had been scored against better defenses (the vanquished teams were the Jets, Dallas and Seattle), it was nonetheless apparent that Kyler was becoming as much a threat with his arm as he had always been with his legs.

Counting the Panther game, Murray averaged 265.3 passing yards per game, tossing 9 touchdown passes against just 2 interceptions. He posted a 105.1 rating. He also ran for another 250 yards in those games, scoring 3 more touchdowns with his legs.

This brings us to last Sunday.

The marquee game, of course, would be that evening when a couple of old guys would renew their assaults on the record books when New Orleans would travel to Tampa Bay. But in a sense the Miami/Arizona game was something of an undercard as a pair of first round draft choices from the last two years would be crossing swords for the first of what is supposed to be many clashes. With Kyler growing into his role as the franchise quarterback in Arizona, Miami was just starting to take the wrappings off of its future at the position – Tua Tagovailoa.

Tua Time had officially been inaugurated the week before when the Dolphins beat the Rams – mostly without much from Tagovailoa who threw for just 93 yards.

In this mini-showcase of burgeoning stars, Tua did very well – much better than in his first start. Tagovailoa completed 20 of 28 for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tua did very, very well.

But Kyler went off.

Even in this era of double-threat quarterbacks, it is doubtful that any one player has so completely dominated a quality opponent the way that Murray flayed the Dolphin defense.

The Dolphins came into the game as the fourth-most blitzing team in football, sending that extra-rusher 40.3% of the time – and they ramped that figure up against Kyler, coming after him on 15 of his 32 dropbacks. Murray never blinked, completing 21 of 26 passes (80.8%) for 283 yards (10.88 yards per attempted pass) and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. His final passer rating of 150.5 came very close to the maximum points the system will award.

As opposed to the Seahawks and some of the other teams he had lit up earlier, in Miami he faced one of football’s top defenses. The Dolphins had yielded just 8 touchdown passes coming into the game, and the 3.0 % of the passes against them that went for touchdowns was the second lowest in the league. The overall passer rating against them at the start of the game was a stingy 81.7 – the fourth best such rating in the league. Kyler’s achievement was no mean feat.

Moreover, he didn’t dink and dunk his way to his big game. Murray averaged 9.6 intended air yards on his throws (the league average is 7.89). His completions were an average of 11.0 yards down field. The league average is just 6.15. America remembers his perfect, arching, 56-yard touchdown bomb to Christian Kirk, but that throw was just the tip of Murray’s proverbial iceberg. He finished 9 of 10 for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns on passes more than 10 yards from scrimmage – including 3 of 4 for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns on throws over 20 yards from the line of scrimmage.

It was a dominating air show. And that was only his arm.

Whether it was scrambling away from the blitz, scorching the defense on the read-option runs, or just slicing through them on those darting quarterback draws, Murray added to the Dolphin frustration with 106 rushing yards (and 1 touchdown) on 11 carries. And there’s an inside the numbers story there as well.

While Kyler was slipping out of their grasp, Miami held Arizona’s actual running backs to 72 yards on 26 carries. Against everyone but Murray, the Dolphin front seven was dominant. Across the NFL, the average running play gains 2.44 yards before contact. The Arizona running backs were just 1.2 yards from the line of scrimmage before they were hit. In retrospect, this might have been one of the best performances ever by a defense who allowed 178 rushing yards.

Yes, things could hardly have gone any better for young Kyler last Sunday afternoon. Except, of course for one thing. The Cardinals outgained the Dolphins 442 yards to 312 and punted only once in the game. But they lost, 34-31 (gamebook) (summary).

To put it in election terms, the yardage total is a lot like the popular vote. Most of the time the team that gains the most yardage is the team that will win – especially if that difference is 100 or more yards. But the points are like the electoral college votes. They don’t always follow the popular vote.

Sometimes the difference is in the small things. One play, one break, one mistake – any little thing can sometimes undermine an otherwise dominant effort.

When Murray slithered through the Miami defense for a 12-yard touchdown run with 2:33 left in the third quarter, it looked like the Cardinals were about to leave the Dolphins behind. They led at that point 31-24.

But the gritty Dolphins answered with a 93-yard drive that included two third-down conversions and a darting 17-yard scramble from the Miami quarterback.

Then it was Kyler’s turn. Starting at his own 27 with 11:14 left in the game, Murray drove Arizona all the way to the Miami 40. There they faced a fourth-and-one with just 5:20 left. Already 2-for-2 on fourth down, Arizona went to the well one more time. This time, though, they didn’t leave the ball in Murray’s hands and let him find a crease. This time running back Chase Edmonds got the carry – and was denied.

Miami quickly turned the turnover into a field goal, and now Kyler would have one final opportunity, starting on his own 25 with 3:30 left, down 34-31.

One minute and 32 seconds later, Zane Gonzalez lined up a 49-yard field goal. Dolphin kicker Jason Sanders had already been an important cog in getting Miami the lead, drilling home field goals from 56 and 50 yards. This effort from Gonzalez was a pretty good kick – very straight and right down the middle – that is, until it faded and dropped just short of the post.

Tua then iced the verdict with a one-yard quarterback sneak on third-and-one with 1:05 left. The first-down drained Arizona of its last time out and allowed the Dolphins to run out the clock.

And that’s how it happens. A big scramble from the rookie quarterback, a big play from the defense on a fourth-and-one (on a call that Arizona might wish to have back), a makeable field goal that falls just short, and for the second straight week, the Dolphins claim a game that they were outgained in – the Rams finished the previous Sunday’s game with a 471-145 yardage advantage.

Sometimes “just finding a way” is one of the greatest traits a team can develop.

Also Winning Though Outgained

For 30 minutes in the early time slot on Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts gave the Baltimore Ravens all they could handle. The Colts entered the contest with football’s second-ranked defense – and more particularly football’s second-ranked run defense. Colt opponents were averaging just 79.9 rushing yards per game and only 3.4 yards per attempt. The Ravens – of course – are football’s most feared running attack, leading the league at the time in both yards per game (178.7) and yards per rush (5.5).

At the intermission, this was a one-sided contest – at least as far as the yardage was concerned. Baltimore staggered into their dressing room with 4 first downs and 55 yards of total offense. The vaunted running game had been stuffed to the tune of 18 yards on 10 carries.

Critical for the Colts, however, was their inability to take full advantage of that dominance. Driving at the end of the first quarter for the touchdown that would have given them a 14-0 lead, safety Chuck Clark scooped up a Jonathan Taylor fumble and returned it 65 yards for a touchdown. It was the only thing that went right for the Ravens, but its importance was incalculable. Instead of trailing, perhaps, 17-0 at the half, Baltimore was only behind 10-7.

The second half saw a reversal. Baltimore never caught up with Indy as far as the yardage goes. The Colts ended the game with a 339-266 yardage advantage, including a 112-110 lead in rushing yards. It has been a long, long time since anyone out-rushed the Ravens in a game.

But Baltimore did come all the way back to pull out the 24-10 win (gamebook) (summary). Along the way, they may have discovered a little bit of what had been wrong with their offense.

First of all, they were predictably run-heavy in the second half, running 28 times to just 10 passes. But the passing game was markedly different than it has been.

For whatever reason – perhaps to establish Lamar Jackson as a feared passer – the Baltimore passing game so far had been as up-the-field as almost any in football. Lamar came into the game averaging 9.2 intended air yards per pass (again, the NFL average is 7.89). This ranked him second in all of football.

The results of this approach would have been predictable. Jackson came into the game in the lower tier of passers. His 60.5% completion percentage ranked thirtieth, and his 9.1% sack rate was thirty-second.

The story of the second half, though, was short-and-quick.

As opposed to Murray’s game against Miami, Jackson hit Indianapolis with underneath stuff. He averaged just 3.74 air yards for his 23 throws in the game. He threw only 4 passes more than 10 yards upfield, and none of them went as far as 20 yards.

But what the attack lacked in pizzazz, it made up for in efficiency. Lamar completed all 10 of his second half throws to lead the comeback.

Sometimes that small thing that decides contests like this is an officials’ call. In this one, another Colt turnover set up the go-ahead touchdown, but under questionable circumstances.

On their first offensive play of the second half, Colt quarterback Philip Rivers went up the right sideline for Marcus Johnson. Cornerback Marcus Peters inserted himself between Johnson and the ball and grasped it with his fingertips. As Peters was falling backwards, Johnson dislodged the ball and it fell to the ground. Initially ruled incomplete.

On replay, the officials saw enough to rule it an interception. I’m not sure that I see that – but even granting Peters the catch, then you also have to charge him with a fumble – which the officiating crew did. Mysteriously, though, they awarded Baltimore a clean recovery – even though the whistle had blown before any recovery had been made.

Coming into the game, I felt that we would learn a bit about the Colts – and we did. In many respects, they played very well against one of football’s best teams. But the offense disappeared in the second half, and a little adversity – a defensive score and a questionable call – undid them.

We’ll keep an eye on the Colts, who may not quite be up to facing the elite teams quite yet.

First Look at the Playoffs

With everyone having played at least 8 games, it’s time to get an idea who is in the driver’s seat as far as playoff berths go.

NFC

Three of the four division leaders in the NFC all hold 6-2 records. The three-way tie will go to conference records to break, giving the New Orleans Saints the current lead. Seattle currently holds the second seed, and Green Bay is third.

With a sterling 3-4-1 record, Philadelphia holds the fourth seed as the East Division leader. The current wildcard teams are Tampa Bay (5), Arizona (6) and the Los Angeles Rams (7).

I’m inclined, at this point, to accept these as the NFC playoff teams, but I don’t think the order will hold. With the NFL’s leakiest defense and the toughest conference to play in, I don’t believe Seattle can hang with the Saints and the Packers. I predict they will fall to third. Between New Orleans and Green Bay, the Packers have the head-to-head win. So, at this point here is how I see the NFC seeding for the playoffs: Green Bay (1), New Orleans (2), Seattle (3), Philadelphia (4), Tampa Bay (5), Arizona (6) and the LA Rams (7).

AFC

The AFC currently boasts the NFL’s lone unbeaten – the 8-0 Pittsburgh Steelers, who currently hold the top seed. Right behind them are the defending champions from Kansas City at 8-1. The rising Buffalo Bills have gone to 7-2. Tennessee and Baltimore are both currently 6-2, but the Titans are leading their division, so if the playoffs started this week, they would be the fourth seed, with Baltimore slotting in at fifth.

The scrum right now is for the last two spots, with four teams currently sitting at 5-3. Conference win percentage separates the Las Vegas Raiders as the sixth seed, with the Dolphins claiming the final playoff spot due to strength of victory. Cleveland and Indianapolis are the two 5-3 teams currently on the outside looking in.

Will it stay this way? I wouldn’t think so.

The Steelers and Chiefs – who don’t meet during the regular season – look right now to be good bets to stay where they are. But chaos will come from the East in the form of the Dolphins. In addition to looking like a team that’s coming together, their schedule down the stretch is much more favorable than the Buffalo team that sits a game and a half in front of them. The Dolphins next four opponents are: the Chargers (2-6), Denver (3-5), the Jets (0-9) and the Bengals (2-5-1). After that, things get a little more competitive. Miami finishes with Kansas City (at home) New England (also at home) and then at Las Vegas before they finish with the big showdown in Buffalo.

I don’t believe the Dolphins will run the table, but they won’t have to. Buffalo’s schedule is notably more challenging – beginning with this week’s game in Arizona against Kyler Murray. Before that final game against Miami, Buffalo will also face San Francisco, Pittsburgh and New England. The inconsistent Bills will be hard pressed to hold off the Dolphins.

The other change I see happening before season’s end involves the Raiders, who I don’t believe will hang on to their spot. The Raiders surprised some people early – most notably New Orleans and Kansas City, but have been much more pedestrian over their last three games (when they were punished by Tampa Bay, 45-20, and squeaked out wins against Cleveland and the Chargers). Before all is said and done they will play Kansas City again, along with Indianapolis and Miami.

That Week 14 game against Indy may prove to be decisive. I rather think it will be the Colts that will take the Raider’s playoff spot from them. If not an elite team, I think that Indianapolis can play with the better teams and are certainly good enough to make the playoffs.

This, then, is how I predict the AFC will seed: Pittsburgh (1), Kansas City (2), Miami (3), Tennessee (4), Baltimore (5), Indianapolis (6) and Buffalo (7).

There’s a long way to go, and I don’t consider myself married to this order. But if everyone wins the games they should win, this is how it will play out.

And yes, that is a big if.

Football

Nobody but Baltimore

There was 1:17 left in the first half as the Steeler defense deployed to defend a third-and-six. The offense they were defending was back on its own 27.

Secure in the belief that a team facing third-and-6 with just 1:17 left in the half and 73 yards to cover would be throwing the ball, they employed seven defensive backs, leaving only two defensive linemen (Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt) and their two pass rushing outside linebackers (Bud Dupree and T.J. Watt) to apply the pressure. The linebackers would come on speed rushes, while the linemen would run a twist. The secondary would play cover-3, while providing a little extra attention to the more concerning receivers.

The Steelers came into the game leading all of football in sacks (26) and sack percentage. They were corralling opposing quarterbacks on a remarkable 11.4% of their drop-backs. This kind of known passing situation played decidedly to their strength.

There was just one teensy problem with all of this. The team that they were playing was the Baltimore Ravens. This just in, you have to play the Ravens differently than you play every other team.

Nobody runs the ball in this situation. But in Baltimore, details like down-and-distance, position on the field and time left to halftime matter little to them. Baltimore ran the ball anyway.

Left guard and tackle Bradley Bozeman and Orlando Brown Jr. both pulled to the right. Quarterback Lamar Jackson feinted a handoff to J.K. Dobbins (which slowed no one). Bozeman picked off Watt. Right tackle D.J. Fluker rushed into the void that Tuitt left as part of his stunt and met the other tackle – Heyward – as he was coming from the other side. Brown only had to push safety Terrell Edmunds to the ground to complete a rather gaping hole. After the play fake, Jackson darted into the void, earning 8 yards before the pursuit caught up with him.

Leading 14-7, Baltimore began their final drive of the first half on their own 8 yard line with just 3:44 left. Plenty of time to run the ball. Their ensuing drive consumed 15 plays – 8 of them runs. Nobody does this. Nobody but Baltimore.

No team in the NFL embodies the neo-Neanderthal mentality like the Ravens (my use of the term Neanderthal is explained and defended here). Some teams run the ball as a kind of changeup, hoping to maybe pick up a couple of yards while giving the other team’s pass rush something to think about. Many other teams understand that a healthy running game provides balance that augments the passing attack.

In Baltimore, their reason for getting up in the morning is to run the football down your throat. Baltimore embraces the physicality of running the football, the thrill of imposing their will on an opponent – even an elite defensive opponent like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh entered the contest sporting gaudy defensive numbers. They were number one overall and number two against the run, holding opponents to just 68.8 rushing yards per game and only 3.4 yards per attempt.

The Ravens nearly tripled that number in just the first half. Over the course of an entire game, only one team had previously managed 100 rushing yards against them. In Week Two, Denver dented them for 104 rushing yards. Even top running teams like Cleveland (75 yards) and Tennessee (82 yards) couldn’t move the stout Steeler run defense.

The Ravens thumped them for 179 yards on 28 carries (6.4 yards per). And that was just the first half.

By the time the game was over, the running Ravens had stung the Steelers to the tune of 265 rushing yards on 47 carries. It’s the kind of output that can’t help but catch the attention of teams around the league – not to mention the fans at home.

The Steelers have a little less than four weeks to figure things out, as they get a rematch with this feared running attack on Thanksgiving evening. Here are a few things they might want to look at more closely the next time these two teams get together.

Deadly on the Edges

As you might expect, Baltimore brings the physical. When you play them, you should expect to have the interior of your line repeatedly challenged. In fact, two of the very best players on the field last Saturday were Baltimore reserve linemen Fluker and Patrick Mekari. When starting right guard Tyre Phillips and left tackle Ronnie Staley left early with injuries, coach John Harbaugh reshuffled his line, pulling right tackle Brown over to left tackle and inserting Mekari and Fluker into right guard and tackle, respectively.

They then ran predominantly to the right side. For their part, the Raven backup players pushed around the Steeler defensive linemen about as well as the starters would have done.

But as tough and nasty as things were on the interior of the defense, the Ravens are positively deadly on the edges. If it’s true that they embrace the physicality of the running game, it’s also true that they embrace the finesse of it. If it’s true that their runners are tough, tackle-breaking runners, it’s also true that they have speed to burn and elusiveness that is Halloween scary.

During Pittsburgh’s long defensive afternoon, Baltimore managed to get outside on them 26 times – those runs picking up 188 yards (7.2) per.

Baltimore has a handful of reliable plays that they use to get outside. They get great mileage out of the zone read play. This worked better than it should have against the Steelers because it takes advantage of aggressive edge rushers. Gus Edwards’ 28 yard run early in the second quarter took advantage of Watt and his penchant for playing on the other side of the line.

On the other side, Dupree bit frequently on the zone read, with Jackson picking up significant yardage running around him.

Late in the game, they broke out the straight option play. Jackson ran it with Dobbins a couple of times to the left (gaining 7 and 9 yards) and once to the right for 15 yards.

Harbaugh’s running game is raised almost to an art form – excellently designed and wonderfully executed, it is designed to get scary quick runners on the outside where they can cause all kinds of havoc.

A Couple of Keyes

Against most offenses, you can play the running game on the way to the quarterback. Against Baltimore, you always have to play the run first. So pass rushing ends have to keep contain.

Number two: Keep a wary eye on Ricard and Boyle.

The casual observer who keeps his eyes on Jackson probably has little idea of how important Patrick Ricard and Nick Boyle are to the smooth operation of Harbaugh’s running game. These two mobile offensive linemen are absolutely key to getting the runner to the outside. I would guess about 90% of the time you see a Raven streaking up the sideline, you will find that Boyle has led around the corner and thrown the key block. The issue here is that Boyle is usually a mismatch against most linebackers – much less defensive backs – that try to deny the edge.

Against Baltimore, I would be tempted to play five down linemen, with the edge linemen keeping a particular eye out for Boyle whenever he tries to open up the corner. The more traffic you can keep out there, the better your chance to contain this outside running game.

Finally, the thing I see over and over with Baltimore’s outside running game is the absence of the corner back.

With 7:29 left in the game, Baltimore was driving to what they hoped would be the game-winning touchdown. They had first-and-ten on their own 25 and ran the option to the left side.

Penetration from Dupree forced the pitch to Dobbins who headed for the sideline. In hot pursuit was Vince Williams, who had leapt over Boyle’s attempted block. But Dobbins still beat him around the corner and picked up 7 yards because that’s how far downfield Devin Duvernay had pushed corner back Steven Nelson. If Nelson had held the line of scrimmage, he could have turned Dobbins back inside where Williams could get him.

None of the Raven wide receivers are particularly physical – nor are they outstanding blockers. But they are all willing and feisty competitors out there. The way it usually works is that the receiver takes off as though running a deep route. The corner keeps backing up to stay on top of the route. Then, when the play turns out to be a run instead, the receiver is several yards downfield in between the runner and the defensive back and only needs to chicken fight with him for a few seconds to achieve his desired result.

If, on the other hand, the defensive back would play under the receiver (remembering that most of Jackson’s throws require the receiver to come back for the ball, anyway), he will be much better positioned to come up and deny the edge – and might even be better positioned to defend the pass.

These are only a few ideas of things that might be adjusted by any defense tasked with slowing this running game. No guarantees are given as to their effectiveness.

The principle point, though, is that you have to defend the Ravens differently. They don’t play football like everyone else.

And the Steelers?

For the game, Pittsburgh was out-rushed 265 to 48. In total yardage, it was Baltimore 457 to 221. But it was Pittsburgh who won the contest, 28-24 (gamebook) (summary). In spite of their dominance on the ground, Baltimore’s intermittent passing woes undid them. This time four turnovers from Jackson (and there was almost a fifth) cost them the game.

For all that they were pushed around a good deal on Saturday, Pittsburgh made the plays that they needed to make. They, at 7-0, are football’s last undefeated team.

But if Baltimore chalks them up for another 265 rushing yards on Thanksgiving, that status could be very much in jeopardy.

Football

As the QuarterBack Turns

I suppose at this point the NFL fans in the Bay area are referring to 2019 in fairy-tale tones – once upon a time, long, long ago.

If you can remember that far back, you will remember that the 49ers had answers everywhere you looked. You want to talk defense? The 49ers were second best in yards allowed and number one against the pass. Opposing passers averaged just 5.92 yards per pass attempt, and only 9.7 yards per completed pass. Both those numbers were football’s best. San Fran also racked up 48 sacks (football’s fifth highest total) dropping the opposing passer on 8.5% of his drop-backs (the third highest ratio in football).

The soul of that great defense was unstoppable end Nick Bosa and unbeatable cornerback Richard Sherman – both named to the Pro Bowl.

If you want to talk offense, you began with the running game – the NFL’s most feared west of Baltimore. Their 498 rushing attempts and their 144.1 rushing yards per game both ranked second. Their 23 rushing touchdowns were the most in the league.

That running game was fueled by two blazing fast runners – Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida. Mostert’s 5.6 yards per carry was second in the league. Breida – at 5.1 – wasn’t too shabby himself.

When they threw the ball, all was well then, too. Franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was healthy and distributing the ball to an impressively deep collection of receivers. It began with George Kittle – arguably football’s premier tight end. He was joined by veteran wide out Emmanuel Sanders and two exciting young superstars – Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne.

Yes, way back in 2019 there were answers everywhere. That was then.

With the movement of Bourne to the COVID-19 restricted list, the 49ers took the field tonight against Green Bay without any of the players I’ve mentioned so far. Some form of attrition (mostly the IR) has claimed every. single. one of them.

Beginning with a Week One loss against Arizona, the 2020 season has played like a soap opera – and every time the viewer is treated to an answer, two more questions open up.

But – like all soap operas – this one has multiple story lines. One, in particular, that keeps the fans chattering centers on the play of quarterback Garoppolo. Last year couldn’t have gone better for him as behind his excellent 102.0 passer rating, the 49ers took a 15-3 record into Super Bowl LIV against Kansas City.

But even with all this success, the questions persisted. Were the 49ers a good team raised to greatness by Garoppolo’s charisma and nearly uncanny ability to make the big throw at the biggest moments of the game (excepting here one pass in the Super Bowl)? Or was he just a system quarterback, made to look great because he was surrounded by a supremely talented team?

As it will almost always develop in a good soap opera, the warts start to show in season two even in our most beloved heroes. (A footnote here. I never watch soap operas, but I’ve been told that these elements are staples of the genre).

And so, in episode one of “As the Quarterback Turns,” our hero plays quite well, throwing for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. But the good guys lost a 24-20 decision to Arizona when Jimmy threw incomplete three of four times in the red zone (basically) with less than a minute and a half left in the contest.

Hmmm.

In episode two, Jimmy G was off to a terrific start, completing 14 of his first 16 passes for 2 more touchdowns. But, cue the organ music, an ankle injury sent him to the sidelines. On their way to an easy 31-13 beating of the woeful Jets, 49er faithful were treated to Jimmy’s backup finishing up the game – a third-year undrafted free agent named Nick Mullens. Nick, as a rookie, had gotten 8 starts while Jimmy was injured in 2018. He went 3-5, but had some good moments while posting a 90.8 rating.

On this Sunday afternoon, though, Nick was not good. His 8 completions in 11 tosses accounted for just 71 yards and were accompanied by an interception.

This provided an apt cliffhanger. Since Garoppolo would be missing a few games with the injury, thoughts of Mullens taking over filled the 49er faithful with much anxiety.

Fortunately, though, in episode three San Francisco was playing New York’s other struggling team (the Giants), and Mullens turned all of the anxiety into accolades. He was terrific. He completed 25 of 36 for 343 yards and a touchdown in a 36-9 victory.

More than just the prettiness of the numbers, Nick showed an ability and willingness to go up the field that the faithful infrequently saw with Garoppolo. And now, the discussions about Jimmy could begin in earnest. Is it possible that he 49ers might, in fact, be better off with Mullens? Stay tuned for the next episode.

Bad Nick was back in episode four, as Mullens threw 2 interceptions and lost a fumble. Coming off the bench in that game was Mullen’s backup, C.J. Beathard. Trailing Philadelphia 25-14 with less than six minutes left, CJ led the 49ers on one late touchdown drive, and had them on the Eagle 33 when time ran out on him. Hollywood, I promise you, doesn’t do the unexpected plot twist any better than this year’s San Francisco 49ers.

Our hero returns for episode five, but the results are just plain ugly. Jimmy plays the first half, throws two interceptions, and leaves with a 15.7 rating and a 30-7 deficit. Garoppolo is still obviously too injured to play on his ankle. Beathard returns for the second half. He’s not great, but he doesn’t do any more damage, and the 49ers limp home 2-3 on the season after a 43-17 waxing at the hands of the Dolphins.

Were there calls now for Beathard to be the quarterback? I’m sure there were. But it would be Jimmy G under center in our next episode.

Episode six finds our heroes in Levi’s Football Emporium in Los Angeles. The Rams, that Sunday evening’s opponents, brought a 4-1 record into the contest – significant, because LA shared the same division with the 49ers. It wasn’t exactly a must win, but a loss here would really sting.

Rising to the moment was Garoppolo. Healthy(ish) for the first time since the season’s early weeks, Jimmy tossed 3 first half touchdown passes, achieved a passer rating of 124.3, and led San Fran to a much needed 24-16 conquest.

Back at .500, and finally looking like the team we remembered, it would certainly be easy sailing from here. Right? Well, that’s not how soap operas work.

In episode seven, San Francisco pushed its record to 4-3 with a 33-6 conquest of the Patriots. Good news, yes, but Garoppolo raised warning signs again as he chucked 2 more interceptions, putting together a 79.5 rating.

All this, then, set up episode eight, the first big showdown with the nettlesome Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks – as you will remember – came within a fraction of an inch in the last game of the 2019 season from claiming the division title. This year’s Seattle team came into the game with a gaudy 5-1 record, looking to push the defending champions from the bay a full 2.5 games behind.

But the Seahawks also came into the game last in the league in pass defense and twenty-ninth in sack percentage. If there was ever a moment for the on-again-off-again Garoppolo to seize, this would be it.

In the aftermath of Seattle’s convincing 37-27 victory (gamebook) (summary), the kindest thing you could say about Garoppolo’s performance is “disappointing.”

At 11-for-16, his 68.8% pass completions was plenty good. But the 11 completions went for just 84 yards (7.64 per) and he threw a crushing interception. He finished the game with a 55.2 passer rating.

And injured.

What was the issue? A combination, probably, of many things. Was he still playing injured from before? Almost certainly. TV analyst Mark Schlereth pointed out a few times that Jimmy was still lifting that injured heel as he threw – a situation that was probably responsible for a couple of his throws that were well off target.

A bigger problem was probably all the injuries around him. Without a running game to provide a base (San Fran ran only 22 times for 52 yards), and without all of his top receivers, Jimmy looked a bit like a fish out of water. Some of the opportunities that he had he just didn’t take advantage of – either because he was playing so fast in his head that he didn’t see them, or because even though he saw them, he didn’t trust himself to be able to throw the ball that far. Of his 16 passes, none of them sailed more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Two plays in particular stand out to me.

The game is still scoreless with 5:47 left in the first quarter. San Fran faces a first-and-ten from the Seahawk 37. After the play-fake, Jimmy rolls to his right. Kittle quickly find the void in the middle of the zone and settles down about 13 yards up the field.

At this moment, George is directly in front of Jimmy and open. Is it possible that Garoppolo can’t see him? Jimmy doesn’t pull the trigger. Instead, he stops, turns, and tries to hit Ross Dwelley in the left flat, throwing it well over his head.

A little more than a minute later, the 49ers face a third-and-five on the Seattle 20. Still scoreless, now just 4:13 left in the first.

The Seahawks were in Cover-3, and the 49ers had the perfect play called. Lining up wide right, rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk ran a vertical stem against the cornerback responsible for the deep right third – Quinton Dunbar. When Brandon broke his route and curled in at about the 10-yard line, Dunbar stopped with him – leaving the entire deep third open. When Bourne – whose route was taking him to the deep right corner – saw middle linebacker Bobby Wagner settle short watching Kittle’s crossing route, Kendrick knew he had a walk-in touchdown and raised his hand for Jimmy to deliver him the ball.

Again, Jimmy didn’t pull the trigger. Instead, he saw Kittle with a step on D.J. Reed on his shallow cross. But Jimmy’s throw was bad. It was behind the receiver, and Reed came away with the interception.

Seattle promptly drove to the game’s first touchdown.

Jimmy did not play well – whatever the reason. But I think the outstanding issue for Garoppolo wasn’t either of these factors. To fully understand Jimmy’s bad day, you have to factor in the unexpected pressure that he was under.

All season, so far, the Seahawks have been in the middle of the NFL in blitzing – and have consistently struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks. But on this Sunday afternoon, the Seahawks blitzed Jimmy lustily. Of his 20 total dropbacks, Seattle sent extra rushers on half of them.

But it wasn’t just the quantity of the blitzes – it was the quality of them. On 6 of the 10 blitzes, the pressure was significant enough to impact the play, with the Seahawks – who came into the contest with just 9 sacks over 6 games – dropping Jimmy on 3 occasions – 2 of them on blitzes. The other sack came after they showed a potential seven-man blitz but dropped three interior defenders back while sending Reed from the slot.

On far too many of the blitzes, Jimmy had to deal with free rushers – or nearly free rushers.

It’s a 13-7 Seattle lead with 3:00 left in the first half. Jimmy is on his own 13, facing a first-and-15. Seattle blitzed off the left corner. San Fran ran play-action with Jerick McKinnon running left to right, leaving no one home at all to pick up Ryan Neal’s blitz. Jimmy managed to get a throw off for Aiyuk, but not where he could catch it.

Now there is just 1:23 left in the half with the Niners on their own 27 facing third-and-13. Another blitz. Wagner shot past center Hroniss Grasu in a blink and was on Garoppolo about as soon as the snap got back there. This sack is listed in the Next Gen stats as one of the 16 or so fastest sacks of the season.

Jimmy’s final play of the game (and possibly season) came with 4:31 left in the third. The Seattle lead has grown to 27-7, and San Fran faces a third-and-2 from its own 33. Seattle blitzes again, but adds a twist.

Defensive end Alton Robinson crosses the face of right tackle Mike McGlinchey, heading toward right guard Daniel Brunskill. This move from Robinson prevented McGlinchey from getting out in time to pick up Reed’s blitz as DJ (who made a significant impact in this game) came screaming around the corner.

As he saw Robinson head his way, Brunskill disengaged from L.J. Collier in order to pick up Alton. In his mind, Daniel must have thought he was passing Collier on to the center. But Grasu and left guard Laken Tomlinson were both occupied by Poona Ford. The result was that both Reed and Collier sprinted almost untouched into the backfield. Jimmy spun out of the initial contact and saw an opening to his left. But as soon as he headed into it, Robinson closed it, with Garoppolo crumpling awkwardly underneath him.

The result was the dreaded high ankle sprain. The prognosis is about six weeks, if there is no surgery needed.

But the plot twists don’t end there.

Needing a replacement again, Nick Mullens stepped into the breach, and was good Nick again. Playing in just the fourth quarter, Mullens led the 49ers on 3 scoring drives. He completed 18 of 25 (72%) for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns (a 128.4 rating).

Yes, Seattle blitzed him, too (14 times in his 25 pass attempts), but Nick seemed quicker to recognize and seemed to have a better idea where his hot routes were. And when he had time, Mullens didn’t hesitate to chuck the ball up-field with a confidence I haven’t seen from Garoppolo since, well, 2019.

The discussion about Jimmy’s merits as the starting quarterback are now postponed. He is out of the picture for the foreseeable future. And now someone is going to get an extended audition to quarterback this team, starting tonight as the 49ers faced the Green Bay team that they eliminated in last year’s NFC Championship Game.

The first chance – as you might have guessed – went to Mullens, who played OK when you remember that he still has a depleted team around him. His 22-for-35, 291 yard, 1 TD and 1 interception night pans out to an 86.7 rating. The team lost this one to the Pack, 34-17.

Was Nick good enough to earn himself another chance? Probably. Good enough to stem the conversations about him? Probably not.

For what happens next, you will have to wait for the next episode of As the Quarterback Turns.