The old saying goes that the quarterback always gets too much credit when his team wins, and too much blame when it doesn’t. My experience confirms this. Even so, complaining about your quarterback is one of our basic constitutional rights that we sometimes take for granted.
2020 (different in a lot of ways from other years) is also distinct for the amount of criticism attached to “made” quarterbacks. Throughout history, there have been some of these great field generals that have elevated themselves to the point where they are (usually) considered immune from the harping that lesser quarterbacks are subjected to. Can you imagine any in the football universe openly caviling Johnny Unitas or Joe Montana? Didn’t think so.
And yet, this year some resumed signal callers have been called out, publicly by their coaches as well as by the fandom in general. The discussion of “what’s wrong with Tom Brady” has turned into a season-long polemic that has abated only slightly with Tampa Bay finally winning a game. Brady, of course, is history’s most decorated quarterback – the numbers of Super Bowls, awards and records need not be recounted here. In earlier posts (here is one) we’ve tried to take an objective look at the swirl of chatter around (arguably) the finest quarterback of this generation.
Of the up-comers, Jared Goff of the Rams – who led them to a Super Bowl a few years ago – has also taken some gentle flack from his head coach – and we looked as his efforts in an earlier post as well.
But of all these decorated quarterbacks, none has been under the constant assault that New England’s Cam Newton has been subjected to. A former MVP, Newton – as you must surely recall – led the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl on the heels of a nearly undefeated season (they were 15-1) just 5 years ago. When he signed on as Brady’s replacement, it was widely assumed that cam would lead that franchise back to glory. Yes he is 31 now, and has had some injuries. But Cam was Lamar Jackson before Lamar Jackson – and he still carried some of that Superman mystique that defined his earlier success in Carolina.
It hasn’t exactly been plug-and-play for Cam in Foxboro. He was benched for Jarrett Stidham in the fourth quarter of last Thursday’s 24-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams (gamebook) (summary). Cam’s numbers were as sluggish as the entire Patriot offense looked during that effort. Newton was 9 for 16 for 119 yards. He threw 1 interception while throwing no touchdowns (obviously). His passer rating of 53.9 was only his fourth worst of the season. On the season, he is having 3.3% of his passes intercepted (which would tie his career high if it stays there) while only tossing touchdowns on 1.7% of his passes (he has never been below 3.7% in any full season of his career).
I can’t speak for the entire internet, but pretty much everywhere I’ve looked the word in the web is that he’s done. In the press conference after the game, the press circled coach Bill Belichick like so many vultures demanding to know why he was still sticking with Newton (“What has he shown you to warrant your confidence?” and other such questions). Obviously, the press covering the Patriots is tired of Cam and are already clamoring for Stidham.
By the way, Belichick’s press conferences – which have always been pained affairs – have taken on a distinctly funerary overtone these days, with Bill looking positively embalmed on Thursday night.
It is somewhat ironic that I am defending Newton – and I mostly will. If you search the Cam Newton tags on my site, you will find some posts where I delve into the things that have prevented him from becoming the enduring star that he could (here is one, there are others). But as with Brady and Goff, I believe that his critics are short-sighted, and that he has become the lightening rod for a lot of issues that New England’s offense is struggling with.
This is not to say that Cam is blameless. His lack of discipline and hit-and-miss mechanics are still underpinning his inconsistencies. Football reference (in the summary I linked to above) charged him with 4 “bad throws” – so one out of every four passes didn’t go where Cam would have intended. Those would include his last two throws before being benched. Damiere Byrd and James White both had a little separation, but the throws were off the mark. Of course, New England was already down 24-3 at that point, so . . .
But Newton also averaged 13.22 yards per pass completion, and three of his nine completions accounted for at least 25 yards – with two of them moving the ball 30 or more yards downfield. His 9 completions traveled an average of 9.7 yards in the air – the highest such average of any quarterback last week. And this against a pass defense that came into the game ranked first in both fewest yards allowed per pass (6.05) and fewest yards per completion (9.7).
In all honesty, when you look at Cam on film, he doesn’t look all that different than he did in his glory days with the Panthers – he is still the same blend of sometimes dazzling talent and sometimes maddening disappointment. The big difference in the Newton of today and the Newton of yesteryear is the support system around him. Cam is, in fact, struggling with the same issues that made Tom Brady look old last year – lack of pass protection, and lack of playmakers to throw the ball to.
You may not be aware, but Brady led all of football in 2019 in throwing away passes – he unloaded 40 of them last year – 9 more than Aaron Rodgers’ 31. The bulk of these involved Tom just getting the ball out of his hand to avoid taking a sack. Newton is less committed to avoiding sacks, and so is throwing away fewer passes (only 8 so far). He is, consequently, getting sacked more (on 7.1% of his drop backs, so far this year). But he is operating under the same duress that Brady encountered last year.
In 22 drop backs against the Rams, Newton was sacked 4 times and knocked down 3 others as Los Angeles hit him 10 times and forced 2 scrambles. He was hurried on a couple of other occasions.
And then, of course, there are the receivers. Between injured reserve and COVID-19, Julian Edelman has missed the least 7 games. Of the pass catchers that were available, only Byrd showed any consistent ability to gain separation. Damiere averaged 3.7 yards of separation on the 8 passes thrown in his direction. Cam’s other receiving options (Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry and Devin Asiasi) combined averaged just 1.52 yards of separation.
Regardless of your expectation for Newton, this is not a formula for success. Few quarterbacks could thrive in this circumstance. Belichick is the last head coach you can imagine that will give in to the whinging of the press and the internet, so it’s doubtful that he will give the offense to Jarrett. Bill – while certainly not content with Cam’s performance – realizes that his situation is challenging. So Newton will keep getting his opportunity to work through these things.
It is doubtful that his treatment by the press will be equally fair.
The Rams Roll On
As to the Rams, their formula against the Patriots was an extension of the plan they ran against Arizona the Sunday before. Lots of running and lots of short passes.
They finished with 36 rushing plays that accounted for 186 yards (5.2 per). While the New England Cam (Newton) endured a frustrating night, Los Angeles’ Cam (Cam Akers) was having a breakthrough performance. The Rams’ rookie running back slashed through the Patriot defense for 171 of those yards (on 29 carries). Of those 171 yards, 112 came before contact, as the LA offensive line owned the contest.
And the passing continues to be exceedingly short. Goff’s average target was only 4.6 yards away from the line of scrimmage (Week 14’s third shortest range passing attack). Of the 24 passes he actually threw to a receiver (he threw one of his 25 passes away), 20 of them were less than ten yards from scrimmage.
Jared finished with just 137 passing yards for the night, but only threw 7 passes in the second half, as the Rams ran on 23 of 31 second half snaps.
And that is a formula for success.
Kansas City Also Rolls On
One place they aren’t kvetching over their quarterback play is Kansas City, where they Chiefs won again. Once again, they spotted their opponent (this time the Miami Dolphins) a 10-0 lead, but had pulled back in front 14-10 by halftime, on their way to a 33-27 conquest (gamebook) (summary). The Chiefs have now won 12 of 13 this season, and 21 of their last 22 (including playoffs).
But this time the quarterback play wasn’t as clean and pristine as usual. Patrick Mahomes was sacked 3 times (one of them for a 30-yard loss, which I understand is a record) and tossed 3 interceptions in a 4-turnover day for Kansas City.
Forty-four games into his young career, this was only the second time that Mahomes had thrown 3 picks in a game. The only other time was that epic showdown with the Rams in Week 11 of 2018. Los Angeles won that one 54-51, and Patrick threw 6 touchdown passes to go along with his interceptions.
That was, in fact, the last regular-season game in which Patrick threw more than one interception (he did, you’ll recall, throw 2 in last year’s Super Bowl). So that snapped his streak of 31 consecutive regular season games without throwing multiple interceptions.
Mahomes finished the game 24-of-34 for 393 yards and 2 touchdowns (a 91.9 rating) after a torrid second half in which he completed 11 of his final 15 passes for 221 yards. That equates to 14.73 yards per attempted pass, and 20.09 yards per completion.
How to Beat the Chiefs
So here was the pattern – very reminiscent of their playoff journey. They look bad early. Sacks, fumbles (Mahomes also fumbled during the game, but KC recovered it), drops – interceptions. Suddenly, its 10-0 bad guys (or, Dolphins, in this case).
Then one good thing happens for the Chiefs – one big play. This time Tyreek Hill on a running play scooted 32 yards for a touchdown. One big play, and the Chiefs exploded.
Counting that drive, the Chiefs scored touchdowns on three of four drives in not quite a quarter’s worth of playing time. This first drive began with 10:14 left in the second quarter, and the fourth drive ended with 13:50 left in the third. All together, the four drives required just 19 plays while accounting for 204 yards (10.7 yards per play). They consumed a total of 7 minutes 11 seconds, and included – in addition to the big run by Hill – a 21-yard pass to Travis Kelce, a 26-yard pass up the sideline to running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and a picture perfect, 44-yard deep strike to Hill running behind the secondary.
Toss in a 67-yard punt return for a touchdown by Mecole Hardman after Miami’s next posession, and the dynamic Kansas City offense and special teams tossed up 28 points in 10:30 of football time. (The Dolphins, by the way, entered the game allowing the second fewest points in the NFL – not that that matters to Kansas City).
So, this suggests a strategy.
Don’t give up that first big play!
Knowing that this is football’s most momentum-phillic offense, don’t allow the play that swings the momentum to their side. This is roughly equivalent to telling a pitcher that the way to stop the Dodger hitting attack is to simply not make any mistakes with any of his pitches – and, as pieces of advice go, just as practical.
So seriously, how do you go about slowing this team? Well, that’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? In this space, I will sometimes speculate about things I might try against various offenses if I were the defensive coordinator charged with concocting a game plan.
To date, I don’t have a comprehensive answer for the Chiefs. I wouldn’t take the deep-zone approach designed to prevent the big play. Kansas City is one of the few offenses that can consistently drive the field taking all the short and intermediate throws that you give them. And, frankly, the teams that take that approach against them usually give up the big play, anyway. I would opt for man coverage.
Ideally, you would like to double everybody. In practice, that’s impossible. But I would double-cover Hill, and I would literally mug Kelce at the line – even walking a defensive lineman out over him in an attempt to disrupt him.
But the basic approach would be pressure. A vigorous, relentless pass rush will stop any passing attack. Here, though, is the rub. You have to get that pass rush from just your four down linemen. If you blitz him, Mahomes will destroy you.
It is, to say the least, a conundrum.
Miami Trending Down
After a 1-3 start, the Dolphins suddenly caught fire. They won five in a row, including splash wins against the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals. In addition to the surprisingly stingy defense, Miami featured the franchise quarterback that they had drafted in the first round of the most recent draft (that would be Tua Tagovailoa) and a certain knack for finding a way to win games that they looked like they should have lost. They also received outstanding special teams play.
Over the last month or so, gravity seems to have caught up with them a bit. They have split their last 4 games, with their other loss coming against the Denver Broncos. Through his first three starts, Tua posted a passer rating of 104.9, throwing 5 touchdowns against no interceptions. In losing two of this last three, Tua’s rating has slipped to 88.3 as his completion percentage has dropped to 60.8%.
Sunday against KC, Tagovailoa was just 28-for-48 for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns to weigh against his first career interception – an 83.3 rating. He was also sacked 4 times (the Broncos got him 6 times).
He was just 5-for-12 for 80 yards in the 10-to-20 yard range.
However it plays out in the end, this has been a welcome resurgence season for the Dolphins. But, over the last few games and heading into a tough finishing stretch (Miami closes with New England, Las Vegas and Buffalo), their youth has been starting to show.