These Old Guys Don’t Go Down Easy

Tom Brady and Drew Brees have been doing this for a long time.

They are a combined 84 years old, with Brees turning 42 during the playoffs.  They have combined for 41 seasons (counting this one) and 581 starts at the most critical position in their sport.  They have thrown a combined 21,023 passes, completing 13,831 of them (65.8%) for 158,303 yards and 1,141 touchdowns.

They went back and forth for a while this season for the all-time lead in touchdown passes.  With Brees missing the last four weeks with some broken ribs, Tom has earned himself a little separation from Drew.  Brady’s lead in all-time touchdown passes currently sites at 573-568.

These, by the way, are just regular season numbers.  The playoffs are worthy of a chapter of their own.

And then, last Sunday, both of these all-time greats trailed at one point in their games by a combined 31-0.  The games, of course, didn’t end that way.

Brees and His Near Comback

The decision to activate and then start Brees was made rather late in the week.  Up until Wednesday, or so, everyone was expecting another Taysom Hill start.  After missing four weeks, Drew was going to be a little rusty, anyway (and, perhaps, limited reps in practice might have amplified that).  Under the best of circumstances, Kansas City is a difficult team to line up against.

While the offense gets all the ink, Kansas City’s defense has been much more than on-lookers – especially the pass defense.  They might, in fact, be the best defense in the NFL that nobody talks about.  The Chiefs entered the game allowing completions on only 62.4% of the passes thrown against them – football’s third-best figure.  Moreover, they came into the game having made 15 interceptions, and restricting opposing passers to just an 84.2 rating.  This was the fourth best defensive rating in the NFL.

It would be unfair to attribute New Orleans’ slow start completely to rust on Brees’ part.  The Chief defense played very well.  But whatever the balance between rust and tight defense, the game couldn’t have started much worse for Drew and the Saints.  He started off missing on his first 6 passes (including an interception), and New Orleans went three-and-out on its first four possessions (if you include the possession that ended with the interception – which was thrown on third down).

The interception led to a short field (setting up one touchdown), and KC put together an 11-play, 80-yard, 5 minute and 1 second drive for a second touchdown.  In the early moments of the second quarter the Chiefs were ahead 14-0 and looking like they would leave New Orleans in the dust.

Even when Brees did begin to complete some passes, what evolved was a very different New Orleans game plan than we are used to seeing.  Instead of the precision, sideline-to-sideline short passing game, Drew’s attack was decidedly vertical.  Six of his 33 passes (one of his 34 passes was a throw-away) travelled more than 20 air-yards from scrimmage, and 4 others were more than ten yards.  Of his 15 completions, 4 were more than 15 yards upfield.

Accounting for the Change

Drew began the week running the second shortest passing game in the NFL – his average target being just 5.4 yards from the line.  On Sunday, his average target was 8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (the NFL average is 7.81).  Why the difference?  It could be a combination of several factors.

In his post-game press conference, Drew blamed himself for not taking check-downs, so some of it was due – perhaps – to rusty decision making.  I believe, though, that there was more to it.  Psychologically, when you fall behind 14-0 to a team as dangerous as Kansas City, there must be some anxiety to score quickly to get back into the game .  I also think – especially with Michael Thomas out of the lineup in order to heal for the playoffs – that there was some focus by Kansas City on the short routes, almost as though the Chiefs might dare Brees to beat them over the top.

Whatever the underlying causes, the results were quite uncharacteristic.  Drew finished with an uncharacteristically low completion percentage (44.1 on 15 of 34) and an uncharacteristically low passer rating (84.7).  On the other hand, he also finished with an uncharacteristically high 15.6 yards per completion.  He finished with a very characteristic 3 touchdown passes.

He needed, perhaps, one more possession to bring New Orleans all the way back.  As it was, they fell in a thriller to the Chiefs, 32-29 (gamebook) (summary).

Saints’ Defense Better than the Score Indicates

Kansas City’s final offensive tallies included the 32 points, 411 yards of offense and 34 first downs.  Not the kind of numbers to suggest that the defense played all that well.  In this case, the numbers are less than descriptive of how the game played out.  The New Orleans defense came into the game with significant credentials as well.  At the start of the week, they ranked second in overall defense, second against the run and fourth against the pass.

Cognizant that even they couldn’t deny everything to the KC offense, New Orleans chose to allow the run in an effort to mitigate the aerial light show that quarterback Patrick Mahomes usually conducts with his quiver of speedy receivers.  So Kansas City’s running numbers were gaudy – 179 yards on 41 attempts.  But the elite passing attack was controlled (to a great degree).

As you might expect, Mahomes entered the game ranked in the top five in almost every passing category – including passer rating, where his 112.3 ranked second in all of football.  In that context, Patrick’s 26 for 47, 254 yard performance seemed pedestrian, indeed.  He competed just 55.3% of his passes (13.1% lower than his season average), averaged just 5.4 yards per pass attempt (3.07 below his season average) and 9.77 yards per completion (2.63 below his average).  He recorded no completions of longer than 23 yards, which he managed just twice, for his only passing plays of twenty-or-more yards.

His 92.0 passer rating was 20.3 points below his season average, and he only managed that because – being Patrick Mahomes – he still managed to toss three touchdown passes without having one intercepted.

The prescriptions for containing both of these skilled passing attacks were virtually identical: Heavy pass rush pressure from the front four, and tight coverage in the secondary.  Neither team blitzed much at all.  Mahomes saw an extra rusher just 7 times, and the Chiefs sent extra men at Brees only 5 times.  But the pressure from the down linemen and the coverage were impressive by both sides. 

Patrick was sacked 4 times as part of being hit 11 times while having 8 passes batted away by a defender.  Drew took only one sack, but was also hit 7 times while having 9 passes defended.  Brees’ wide receivers and tight ends managed an average of just 1.99 yards of separation (according to Next Gen stats) – a number which speaks to the impact that losing Thomas has on the rest of the team.

In fact, if there was one number that most expressed the difference between these two teams last Sunday, it might be the third-down tallies.

With their running game keeping them in manageable third downs, Kansas City finished 9-for-18 in those opportunities.  With their running game mostly abandoned (and New Orleans ran the ball only 17 times) and Drew’s passes falling incomplete much of the time, the Saints spent the afternoon in a lot of third and longs.  They finished 1-for-11 on that down.

This led to Kansas City running 92 plays and controlling the ball for 41:14 of the game.  The Saints just couldn’t stay on the field.  Their longest possession of the afternoon lasted just 2:40, and they finished with 7 three-and-outs (again, including the interception possession).

Encouragement in Defeat

Of all the teams that have lost to Kansas City this year (and that has been almost all of them), I believe that New Orleans can be most encouraged by their near miss.  They were playing with a quarterback rusty from the IR, playing without their best pass receiver, falling behind early by two touchdowns, and playing all of the fourth quarter without their best defensive lineman (Cameron Jordan got himself ejected).  And, for all of that, fell just one possession short.

Given the chance for a re-match (which could only happen in the Super Bowl), New Orleans must be convinced that they can play with this team.  Whether they can overcome the Mahomes magic, though, is another question.

That is the question that ultimately bedevils the entire league.

Brady’s Day

Tom Brady’s afternoon in Atlanta could have hardly started worse.  The downtrodden Atlanta Falcons hit them with a perfect half.  They converted 6 of 10 third downs, committed no penalties, no turnovers and suffered no sacks.  They rolled up a 261-60 advantage in total yards, a 16-5 advantage in first downs and took a 17-0 lead into the locker room at the half.

As opposed to the defenses in the Saint-Chief game, the word of the day for both defenses in this game was blitz and blitz some more.  Both teams blitzed at almost exactly the same rate.  Atlanta came after Brady 43.8% of the time (21 of 48 drop-backs), and Tampa Bay responded by sending extra rushers after Matt Ryan 43.4% of the time (23 blitzes in 53 drop backs).

In the first half, the story was Brady under siege and Atlanta keeping the rush away from Ryan.  In the second half, some protection adjustments gave Tom more time in the pocket, and allowed him to fully exploit the coverage difficulties that the Falcons have suffered with the entire season.

In the second half alone, Brady completed 21 of 29 passes (72.4%) for 320 yards.  Think for a moment about throwing for 320 yards in one half.

Brady average 11.03 yards per pass attempt in that half, and 15.24 per pass completion.  He also tossed a couple of touchdown passes as he conjured a few memories (bitter for the Falcon fans, to be sure) of the Falcons’ Super Bowl loss to New England.  The Patriots (er, I mean Buccaneers) came all the way back for a 31-27 victory (gamebook) (summary).

Playoff Consequences

Two surprising Week 15 upsets juggled the playoff situations a bit.  The Rams’ loss to the Jets caused some minor movement in the NFC.  That loss by LA, gives Tampa Bay an open opportunity to claim the fifth seed, dropping the Rams to sixth.  The two teams currently hold identical 9-5 records, with the Rams holding the head-to-head tie breaker.

But Tampa Bay’s closing schedule is Detroit and Atlanta again (very winnable games), the Rams finish with Seattle and Arizona.  If the Bucs win out and LA stubs its toe just once, the two teams will switch positions.

More Upheaval in the AFC

The other big upset was Cincinnati eclipsing Pittsburgh.  In absorbing their third loss in a row, the onetime presumptive first seed In the conference will now likely fall to third.  Pittsburgh and Buffalo now hold identical 11-3 records, with the Bills holding the tie breaker by virtue of their win over the Steelers last week.

And, finally, the Cleveland Browns got that one win that they needed to put themselves in the playoff driver’s seat when they beat the Giants on Sunday night.  Cleveland is now 10-4, Baltimore is 9-5 and Miami is also 9-5.  The Ravens hold the tie-breaker with the Browns (season sweep), and close with an easy schedule (they finish with the Giants and Bengals.)  Cleveland would have to win both of their games to stay ahead of the Ravens.  This week they have the Jets (who will come in enthused off their victory) and they finish with Pittsburgh, so I still think it likely that Baltimore will finish ahead of Cleveland (they will get the fifth seed).

So the Cleveland win now makes the Dolphins vulnerable. The Dolphins are a game behind the Browns and finish on the road in Las Vegas and Buffalo.  Miami’s playoff fate may depend on whether Buffalo needs to win that final game or not – and from the looks of things right now, I will guess that they will need that game.

If Cleveland does, in fact, get in, they will probably claim the sixth seed.  They have an earlier victory over Indianapolis, so the Colts could very well finish 11-5 this season and be relegated to the seventh seed.

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