Archives for January 2021

Not the Same Team

There is 1:42 left in the third quarter of a 20-20 game. New Orleans faces a third-and-four on their own 31-yard line. The Saints flank three wide receivers out to the left. Widest to that side was Emmanuel Sanders, with Jared Cook about four yards inside of him. The narrowest split belonged to Michael Thomas, the innermost receiver, who was just a step on the outside of the hash-marks.

In spite of the fact that New Orleans saw relentless man coverage from Tampa Bay, they didn’t run a whole lot of man beating routes. This would be one. The outer receivers (Sanders and Cook) would run curls inside, with Thomas looping around them up the sideline. The congestion of the receivers with their defenders was supposed to divide Buc cornerback Ross Cockrell from Thomas – the man he was assigned to cover.

The design worked, with Thomas briefly springing open up the sideline, and Mike Edwards – the safety to that side – closing fast. Quarterback Drew Brees delivered the ball on time, but over Thomas’ outside shoulder – to keep him away from Edwards. But Michael had turned to the inside, and had to execute an awkward reverse spin to position himself to attempt the catch, losing a step while he was turning.

Even though this left him far enough from the ball that he had to lunge for it, Michael Thomas – one of football’s elite receivers – still had the ball momentarily in both hands before it slipped through his fingers just before Cockrell and Edwards converged on him.

Not the Same Team

From the moment that Tampa Bay had qualified for the Divisional Round, they began anticipating their third confrontation with the New Orleans Saints – a team that had beaten them handily twice already. Like a mantra, from head coach Bruce Arians on down, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers chanted in near unison, “We’re not the same team.”

There was ample evidence of the veracity of that pronouncement in their 30-20 conquest of their former nemesis (gamebook) (summary). But while the Bucs have, indeed, made significant growth, the mantra more exactly fits the team they beat. In many critical ways, the Saints were not the same team at all.

Drew is Probably Done

The performance from future Hall-of-Fame Quarterback Drew Brees has rarely been worse. Drew finished a sobering 19-for-34 for but 134 yards, his lone touchdown pass offset by three crucial interceptions. In the post-game interview, Drew was less than chatty – consistently refusing to talk in any detail about his upcoming decision. But he had the look of someone who had played his last football game.

Just Thursday, his wife tweeted for the world to know the litany of damage that Drew had persevered through. We already knew about the 11 broken ribs and cartilage issues. We didn’t know that he was also playing through a torn rotator cuff and a torn fascia in his foot.

If he comes back, now, he is looking at some significant re-hab – a lot to ask of a 42-year-old who has missed significant time to injuries in each of the last two years. In fact, the question of whether he had any business playing last Sunday is a good one to ask. Do you put you playoff fate in the hands of a compromised quarterback?

With Drew as the headliner, the health of the team in general faded greatly since the last time they beat Tampa Bay. Out for this game were middle linebacker Kwon Alexander, and two significant pieces of the offense – Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill – with electrifying receiver/punt returner Deonte Harris following them after playing just five snaps. Additionally, sack leader Trey Hendrickson was just back after missing the Chicago game due to a neck injury, running back Alvin Kamara was just back from the COVID list, and Thomas missed nine games (including the last three of the regular season) to a lingering ankle problem.

So the team was nicked up a bit. The big question, though, revolved around the quarterback. Over the two playoff games the Saints played this year, Brees threw 73 passes. Only one of them was to a receiver more than twenty yards downfield. That pass occurred in the Chicago game. None of his 34 passes against Tampa Bay was directed more than 19 yards away, and he had no completions on a pass deeper than 17 yards.

In the broadcast booth, Troy Aikman voiced the question that was on everyone’s mind. Could Drew Brees, in fact, still throw a ball twenty yards in the air?

For their part, the Buccaneers played him like he couldn’t. Adopting the game plan that I predicted last week, Tampa Bay blitzed Drew heavily (52.9% of his drop-backs) and played smothering, press man coverage in an attempt to take away his short passes. The game plan met with exceptional success. After rolling up 1315 yards over the previous 3 games (an average of 438.3 per), the Saints left the field with only 294 yards to show for their efforts against Tampa Bay.

Not an Accurate Representation

All of this paints a picture of an offense that was hamstrung by the limitations of its quarterback. Even though that was probably true, it’s not an accurate representation of what happened on the field Sunday evening. Drew Brees never threw the ball down the field, not because he couldn’t (although he probably couldn’t). He didn’t throw the ball down the field because none of his receivers could get open down the field. For that matter, they couldn’t get open for short passes, either.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have come under criticism – including by me – for their weakness in pass coverage. And when they are in zone coverage – and for some reason they always revert back to their zone coverages – this is still true. I believe that every time they went to zone against New Orleans there was a significant gain to be had. But this team could always play man defense – and last Sunday they inhaled the New Orleans receivers.

The foundation was cornerback Carlton Davis. His ability to remove Michael Thomas from the equation (and Davis was a major factor in holding Thomas to no catches), combined with the Saints’ early loss of Harris, left New Orleans without a major weapon to challenge the man coverage they would get from the rest of Tampa’s defensive backs. So Brees’ afternoon was a frustrating exercise in running from the Buccaneer blitz in the mostly futile hope of finding an open receiver. Drew’s first interception was representative of the way his day went.

With Jordan Whitehead as the single high safety, the Bucs brought Devin White on the blitz. Devin sprang into the “A” gap between center Erik McCoy and right guard Cesar Ruiz. With down-lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches occupying Ruiz, McCoy was obliged to pick up White’s blitz, turning to his outside shoulder for the block. At the same time, Jason Pierre-Paul looped from his defensive end position around McCoy’s other shoulder. Caught in a bind, Erik effectively blocked neither, and both White and Pierre-Paul invaded the backfield and flushed Drew from the pocket.

Scrambling away from trouble, Drew had no place to go with the ball. According to Next Gen Stats, at the time Brees actually unloaded the ball, scanning from his left to his right, Jared Cook had a half-yard of separation from Antoine Winfield Jr., Emmanuel Sanders had a yard on Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting was 0.8 yards away from Michael Thomas, and, up the right sideline, Tre’Quan Smith and Carlton Davis were separated by a scant 1.6 yards.

In retrospect, I’m sure Drew would say that he should have thrown this one away and tried something else on third down. In the post-game, Brees owned to the fact that he tried to force a couple of passes. This would be one. Trying to loft the ball over Murphy-Bunting’s head to Thomas, Drew didn’t get quite enough air underneath the ball. Sean’s subsequent interception and 36-yard return set up the first touchdown of the day.

As I mentioned before, this was not a singular event. Repeatedly throughout the game the Buccaneer defenders presented Brees with smothering coverage. And more than once, the pass rush came to the rescue when the secondary did occasionally let a receiver escape. On this play, Sanders was actually pulling away from Dean. If Brees had had time to wait another half-second, this could have been a game-changing play the other way.

Assuming, of course, that Drew could have thrown it that far.

Uncharacteristically Ragged

On top of all of this, when there were the occasional opportunities to make a play, Drew was frequently let down by his receivers, who played an uncharacteristically ragged game. Attention here is specifically drawn to Cook, whose fumble led to another Tampa Bay touchdown and whose failure to catch – or at least knock down – Brees’ final pass led to the final interception. But Jared wasn’t the only one who has had better games.

With 1:04 left in the third quarter, Sanders found himself inside of Dean on a crossing pattern. But instead of continuing across and maintaining his separation, Emmanuel turned his route up-field, allowing Jamel to get underneath him and deflect the pass.

With 4:07 left in the first half, New Orleans set up a nice little screen pass. Seeing linebacker Shaquil Barrett lined up to blitz off the offensive right side, Brees called tight end Josh Hill over from the other side of the formation to set him directly in front of Barrett – presumably to block him. Hill failed, as Barrett blew easily past him – only to find that he had been had, as Brees tossed the ball over Barrett’s head to Hill, who had a couple of blockers in front of him.

New Orleans had caught the Bucs in another zone defense, and tight end Adam Trautman’s vertical route to that side had pulled both the corner and the safety deep and securely out of the play. The only defender on that sideline who could have prevented this from being about a 15-yard gain was underneath corner Murphy-Bunting.

But Hill ran away from his blocking. Instead of tucking in behind them, he veered out to the sideline, the only place he could go where Sean could make a play on him. Tackle Ryan Ramczyk made a valiant effort to get over there quick enough to lay a block on Murphy-Bunting, but all the attempt earned him was a close up view of Sean dropping Hill for a three-yard loss. So went the day.

And Then, There Was Thomas

Of all of the bizarre transpirings of this very strange day, none was more bizarre than Michael Thomas’ no-catch game. I began this post with the details of one catch that got away. There was a potentially game-changing one much earlier in the contest.

After Tampa Bay went three-and-out on their first possession, Deonte Harris set New Orleans up on the Bucco 21-yard line with an electric 54-yard punt return (did I mention what an important loss Harris was to this team?) Five plays later, the Saints faced a third-and-goal from the five. Here Tampa Bay sent six rushers, leaving Davis on Thomas – split wide right with no safety help. After taking him straight up-field for a couple of yards, Thomas broke toward the sideline and Brees threw him the ball.

But Michael didn’t go all the way to the sideline. He stayed about two steps to the inside. If Brees had thrown the ball just over Davis’ head where he was standing next to Thomas, Michael could have out-leapt him for the touchdown. If Thomas had actually gone to the sideline, he would have been in perfect position to pull the ball in and tap his toes along the sideline for the touchdown.

But after years of uncanny chemistry between them, on this day Brees and Thomas were on different pages. Michael still caught the ball, but having to lunge to do it, he had no chance to keep in bounds while making the catch. This is, in fact, the strangest factoid of the game in my mind. Thrown to five times, Thomas had his hands on the ball almost every single time. The only one he didn’t have both his hands on was the Murphy-Bunting interception we looked at earlier.

None of them would have been necessarily easy catches, as every ball thrown to him was heavily contested. But these are the catches that we’ve seen him make almost routinely throughout his career. So much so, that it’s the kind of thing we take for granted. But now, Brees misses a few weeks, Thomas is out of the line-up for a while to heal his ankle – perhaps doesn’t go through all of the reps in practice that he otherwise might, and all of a sudden things that before were all but automatic are just off enough.

And when that happens to you in the playoffs, you almost always end up watching the rest of the games on television.

As For the Bucs

Yesterday, in writing about Green Bay, I suggested that the Packers hadn’t been really tested and that I wasn’t entirely sure who they are. In a lot of ways, I feel the same thing about Tampa Bay. Until Sunday, the only other team with a winning record that this Buccaneer team had a victory over was, ironically, the Green Bay Packers – the conference’s top seed and their opponent tomorrow. On the heels of a regular season that saw them finish 1-3 against winning teams, 1-1 against teams that finished at .500, and 9-1 against losing teams, Tampa Bay has qualified for the Championship Game after nearly losing to a 7-9 Washington team that was starting a third-string quarterback, and, now beating a New Orleans team whose quarterback was probably not healthy enough to be on the field.

What to make of this team?

After watching them all year – and I may well have written more about Tampa Bay than any other team this year – here are the things that I believe ( and don’t believe) about this team.

First, their pass protection has gotten much better. In back-to-back playoff games, they have faced two of the better pass rushes (in Washington and New Orleans) and have kept their quarterback almost untouched. They have committed more people to pass protection from time to time. Rob Gronkowski has one catch in two post-season games because he has been asked to do more pass blocking than usual.

This may cost the Bucs a few receivers out on the route, but the benefit to the passing game has been measurable. I maintain that about 75% of this team’s early offensive struggles stemmed from the fact that Tom Brady was getting driven to the ground about a dozen times a game. Having cleaned that up, most everything else has fallen into place.

Second, I believe that coach Bruce Arians has made peace with the running game. During the regular season, Tampa Bay ran the ball fewer times than any other winning football team. As recently as Week 15 they ran only 18 times against Atlanta. In their four games since then – the last two in the playoffs – Tampa Bay has run the ball 26, 22, 29 and 35 times. I actually think Coach Arians has grown fond of seeing the ball in Leonard Fournette’s hands. This also has benefited the offense. A healthy and productive running game keeps defenses in base personnel and out of exotic schemes.

In fact, one of the principle ways this is “not the same team” is that the offense has started to do many of the things that Brady’s New England offenses did – running the football and throwing the ball underneath. Against the Saints, in addition to the 35 running plays, Brady threw 18 of his 33 passes less than 10 yards from scrimmage. He completed 13 of them for 110 yards and both of his touchdowns. He was only 5 of 15 for 89 yards on throws of ten yards or more.

Which brings me to my third belief. I believe that Tampa Bay – for all of its growth in other aspects of play – is still overly dependent on the big play. In their conquest of New Orleans, they put together 3 drives of 10 plays or more. All of those ended up in field goals. Their only touchdowns came on short fields after turnovers. All three of their touchdown drives added together totaled 63 yards – less than two of their three field goal drives.

I believe that if Green Bay can keep Brady and his receivers from striking for the big play, and they don’t turn the ball over to make things easy for them, that the Buccaneers will struggle to sustain offense and put points on the board.

One thing I don’t believe is that their defense – picked on by the better passing attacks all year – is miraculously fixed. Their zone defenses are still a bit of a mess, with someone almost always wandering away from their coverage responsibility for some reason or another, and I still believe that their pass rush is a hit-and-miss affair unless they bring the blitz. I expect that Tampa Bay will approach Green Bay with the same basic approach that they played against New Orleans – not because there is a strategic advantage to blitzing and playing man defense, but because if they do anything else, Aaron Rodgers will skin them alive.

This time, though, they won’t be facing a wounded quarterback whose effective range is about 15 yards. In Rodgers, they will be up against a guy who – with a flick of his wrist – can send precisely guided football missiles forty-plus yards downfield. Aaron, by the way, has seen a blitz or two in his time and won’t necessarily be undone by them.

Man coverage is what Tampa Bay does – and, yes, they do it very well. Whether they can do it well enough to keep the Packers at bay for a full 60 minutes is the question that will largely determine which of these teams will play in the season’s final game.

Come playoff time, Green Bay is an uncomfortable road game – especially if you are a warm weather team from, say, Florida. Sprinkle moderately with snow, and the Buccaneers level of discomfort rises accordingly.

I don’t honestly know how good Green Bay is, but I strongly suspect that they are better rounded than Tampa Bay. Tomorrow, we’ll find out.

Football

What Happens When He’s Not There? (LA Rams Edition)

Were I to have told you before the Divisional Round games were played that one team would rush for 188 yards that weekend, I suspect it would have probably taken you at least three (and possibly four) guesses to name that team.

You first guess would almost certainly be the Baltimore Ravens. Their season average, after all, was 191.9 yards. They didn’t quite come to that level, topping out at 150 yards in their loss to Buffalo. The next guess would have probably been Cleveland – the number 3 running team in football running against a suspect KC run defense. The Browns certainly might have gotten there if they hadn’t ignored their running game through the first 30 minutes. Even so, Cleveland managed 112.

Failing the first two guesses, you might still have thought of the Rams next. They ran for 164 yards in their win over Seattle the previous week, and, with their quarterback about two weeks removed from surgery on his throwing thumb – and with the Rams playing without their leading receiver – you would think that Los Angeles would be a strong candidate for a run-centric game. But the Rams would fall well short as well – they finished with 96.

So, who could it be? Buffalo and Tampa Bay don’t run the ball. Kansas City sometimes does, but with Patrick Mahomes working against that suspect Cleveland pass defense, why would they? New Orleans has a strong running attack, but they were also going up against the top run defense in the league, so 188 rushing yards would be a lot to ask.

That would leave only the Green Bay Packers, but they were also lining up against a top run defense (the Rams ranked third against the run, allowing but 91.3 rushing yards a game).

Nonetheless, when the two minute warning hit, there were the Green Bay Packers with 192 rushing yards rolled up against that Ram defense. They gave back four of those yards on three Aaron Rodgers kneel-downs that killed off the last of the clock and left them with 188 rushing yards for the day. The Green Bay Packers were your rushing leaders for Divisional Round Weekend.

In the hoopla surrounding Rodgers and Davante Adams, people often forget that the Packers are about as balanced an offense as there is in the NFL. Along with their ninth-ranked passing game (ranking by yards), Green Bay can deploy an eighth-ranked running game. During the season, in fact, they had six different games where they ran for more than 140 yards, surpassing 200 rushing yards twice. From Weeks 12 through 16, Green Bay averaged 176 rushing yards a game at a clip of 5.5 yards per carry.

By season’s end, primary ball-carrier Aaron Jones finished with 1104 yards (the fourth most in football) and a 5.5 yard average (the fifth best average in the game).

So, yes, the Green Bay Packers. Last year’s club finished fifteenth in the league in rushing – and, not coincidentally, fifteenth in scoring – and subsequently lost to San Francisco in the Conference Championship Game – a game they were out-rushed in by a 285-62 margin. In 2019 Rodgers’ numbers were very good (he threw for 26 touchdowns and had a 95.4 passer rating), but he was also sacked 36 times.

This year, the elevation of the running game has raised the level of the entire offense. With 509 points scored, Green Bay led all of the NFL. Rodgers’ numbers in the passing game also soared – he threw 48 touchdowns this year with a 121.5 passer rating – both of those league leading numbers (two of an easy half-dozen categories that Rodgers led the league in). He was also sacked just 20 times. In what is increasingly a pass-happy league, a good dose of balance can make all the difference.

The difference has come as a result of just a few changes.

Commitment

First of all, the 2020 edition is characterized by a stronger commitment to balance and a renewed interest in the running game. Seeing first-hand how devastating a dominant running game can be, the Packers have upped their focus.

Last year’s team ran the ball 25.7 times a game. This year that number is marginally up to 27.7 rushes a game. But even as they are running slightly more, they are spreading the carries around, keeping their backs fresher. Jones carried the ball 236 times in 2019. He handled just 201 carries this year. Jamaal Williams’ workload has picked up, from 107 rushes last year to 119 in 2020, and rookie AJ Dillon has been added to the mix – he carried the ball 46 times (averaging 5.3 yards a carry).

The run commitment here hasn’t just been about running more. It’s been about running better.

The Emergence of Jenkins

In 2019, left guard Elgton Jenkins was just a rookie. He was an impressive rookie (being named to the NFL all-rookie team), but he was just a rookie offensive lineman. Now a “seasoned veteran” in his second year, Jenkins is beginning to impact games at a high level.

Saturday against the Rams, when All-World defensive lineman Aaron Donald lined up to his side, Jenkins handled him one-on-one – and dominated the matchup. The ceiling is very high for this young man.

The Emergence of Patrick

Over the offseason, right tackle Bryan Bulaga took his nine years and 111 career starts to the Chargers. Green Bay’s adjustment was to slide guard Billy Turner over to Bulaga’s tackle spot, and to promote fourth-year player Lucas Patrick to the right guard spot. At that point, Patrick had started 6 games over the previous three years.

Unknown though he might be, Lucas has brought an energy to that line, and has improved as the season has gone on. He was notably impressive against the Rams.

On an eight-yard run by Williams in the first quarter, Patrick just muscled Sebastian Joseph-Day off the line and shoved him 6 yards up field. Toward the end of the first half, on an eight-yard run by Jones, it was Patrick overpowering Donald – pushing him to the far side of the formation.

The entire Green Bay offensive line performed spectacularly on Saturday afternoon. None were more eye-opening than Lucas Patrick.

Not Himself At All

Taking nothing at all away from the Packer offensive line, but I can’t sit here and write about these guys pushing Aaron Donald all over the field without expressing a fact that was obvious to everyone who watched the game. This was not the Aaron Donald that we’re used to seeing. I don’t believe the extent of his rib injury was ever completely disclosed, but there is no question that Aaron was a shadow of his usual self out there. Without any special attention at all, Green Bay made one of this generation’s most impactful defensive players mostly disappear – and that just does not happen if Aaron is at even 75% effectiveness.

The strongest hint of the severity of Donald’s injury is found in the snap count chart. Aaron was on the sidelines for 47% of Green Bay’s offensive plays. During the regular season, he missed only 15% of the opponent’s offensive plays.

I think it’s hard to over-estimate the impact of this loss.

What Happens When He’s Not There?

Look, football is a tough man’s game, and people get hurt. Winning teams cobble together enough quality depth to be able to survive if a starter goes down – even if that starter is a star. On Sunday, Kansas City milked enough plays out of Chad Henne to help them beat Cleveland even after they lost Patrick Mahomes. The Packers themselves are heading to the Championship Game without David Bakhtiari – one of football’s elite offensive linemen. Ricky Wagner has plugged into his spot, and is giving Green Bay enough to keep going. On Saturday against the Rams, he looked a lot like Bakhtiari.

But some losses boarder on the irreplaceable. When you have a unique talent, it’s almost second nature to construct your scheme (offensive or defensive) around that talent.

I wrote about this after Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray went down in a playoff-deciding game against the Rams. The Cardinal’s entire offensive scheme is intertwined with Murray’s unique dual-threat skills. When he was knocked out of the game, Arizona’s offense crumbled. We’ve seen the same thing happen in Baltimore when they’ve had to play without Lamar Jackson. Even players who have “similar” abilities can’t revive an offense that draws its life from the singular talent that sits at its heart.

Aaron Donald is that kind of talent for the Ram defense. When you have an Aaron Donald leading your defensive line, you can take all kinds of liberties with the layers of defense behind him.

On Green Bay’s very first possession, ball at their own 42, facing a first and ten, the Packers came out with two receivers split out to the left, and two running backs (Jones and Dillon) in the backfield with Rodgers. When Jones went in motion to flank out left – making the left side the three-receiver side – middle linebacker Troy Reeder followed him out to the perimeter – presumably in man coverage.

With two other defensive backs aligned over the other receivers, and a safety sitting deep to that side, the Rams had a four defenders-to-three receivers advantage on that side. But there were now no linebackers in the middle of the field. The Rams had three linebackers on the field, but two were on the edges in pass rush mode, and Reeder was outside the numbers in coverage. From tackle-to-tackle, the closest defender was safety Nick Scott, about ten yards up the field.

This is a liberty you can take when you have Aaron Donald in the middle of your line. Suppose the Packers try to run? Fine. Donald will push the guard into the backfield and drop the runner for a 2-yard loss.

But what happens when Donald isn’t there? Or, as in this case, when he’s physically there, but not able to be Aaron Donald. What then?

In this instance, center Corey Linsley turned nose-tackle Joseph-Day out to the right, Jenkins stopped Donald in his tracks, and Dillon popped the middle for nine yards. This exact scenario worked out multiple times during the game – Reeder confidently abandoning the middle of the field to cover a receiver motioning to the three-receiver side – almost always with the ensuing run popping for six to nine yards. This was even the setting – with one small adjustment – that opened up the game’s longest run.

First play from scrimmage in the second half. Adams goes in motion to the left, and Reeder follows him out of the middle – even though this time Donald is on the sideline. This time safety John Johnson is the only defender in the middle of the field – nine yards back. Jenkins this time blocks Morgan Fox, with Linsley again down-blocking on Joseph-Day. This time, though, he doesn’t stay with Sebastian. This time he passes him off to Patrick and leads through the hole to take out Johnson.

Now it looked like practice, with Aaron Jones running through a completely vacant middle of the field. Safety Jordan Fuller eventually caught up with him and escorted him out of bounds, but not until Aaron had covered 60 yards – putting the ball on the LA 15. Five plays later, Aaron scored from the one, and the Packer lead (after a failed two-point conversion) was 25-10.

I believe that this was the last time in the contest that the Rams did this, but even while playing more conventional defenses, LA still struggled to stop the run. When you have a guy like Donald absorbing two and sometimes three blockers, you have the luxury of running smaller linebackers behind them. But without the protection that Aaron afforded them, Reeder and Kenny Young – the other undersized linebacker who usually found himself in the middle – were continually subjected to the not-so-gentle attentions of that Packer offensive line.

Beyond his physical presence, the lack of Donald’s emotional energy seemed to drain the rest of the Ram defense. Even the other members of an top defensive line – guys like Leonard Floyd and Morgan Fox (who I praised in the thread linked to above) were just punching bags for the Packer line – and the running backs. Green Bay running backs averaged 2.97 yards AFTER contact (the NFL average was 1.91) and the Rams missed 8 tackles (according to the summary).

The final score of 32-18 (gamebook) (summary) doesn’t do justice to the Rams’ defensive struggles.

Constructing an entire philosophy – whether offensive or defensive – around a singular talent comes with uncommon advantages. Until, of course, they’re not there.

What to Make of the Packers

For the entire season, I’ve been waiting to get a clear read on who this Green Bay team is – and for the entire season, that clarity has eluded me. They have great statistics, and are about to host the Championship Game after securing their conference’s top seed. And yet, I can’t shake the feeling that their path to this position was cushioned. They were the only team in their division to finish above .500, and, during their 13-3 regular season only played 4 winning teams – going 2-2 in those games.

They lost in overtime to a good, but not great, Indianapolis team, and had their lunches handed to them in their previous matchup with the Buccaneers – their opponent this Sunday. Even their two victories against winning opponents come with caveats. They beat a very good New Orleans team – but that was in Week Three while the Saints defense was still figuring itself out. They also beat a dangerous Tennessee team – but that was Week 16 after their defense had already collapsed (not to mention the fact that the Titans were clearly thrown by playing in the snow).

Now they have a playoff win against a defensively compromised team that was also missing its top wide receiver on offense.

I still don’t feel that this team has been truly challenged – certainly an unusual observation to make about a team about to host its conference’s Championship Game. Since I also have some lingering questions about Tampa Bay, it should make for an interesting matchup.

Football

Running Teams BeGone

The longer the Raven defense held Buffalo close, the more imminent their victory seemed.

Throughout the first half, Baltimore’s top-ranked running attack seemed one fingernail away from cracking the big run that would break the game open. They finished the half with 77 rushing yards, averaging 4.3 per running attempt. But no touchdowns, as the first half ended in a 3-3 tie.

Now, in the second half, Baltimore seemed poised to break through. Beginning at their own 25-yard line, Baltimore would drive to the Buffalo 9-yard line in 14 grinding plays – 7 runs (for 31 yards) and 7 passes (5 of 6 completed for 39 yards and a 4-yard sack).

Now there were only 58 seconds left in the quarter. Baltimore, facing third-and-goal, was one play away from tying this game up. Quarterback Lamar Jackson followed tight end Mark Andrews with his eyes as Mark settled into a void in Buffalo’s zone defense about three-yards deep into the end zone. Jackson’s subsequent throw would result in his only touchdown pass of the game.

Unfortunately for him, it wouldn’t be to Andrews – or any other Raven player.

Running Teams Begone

The Divisional Round in the AFC found two of football’s top three running games still in the hunt for the title. The Ravens – playing in Buffalo on Saturday night – had averaged an astonishing 191.9 rushing yards a game through the regular season. Their 555 rushing attempts, and their 5.5 yards per rush were also easily the best marks in football. Their 24 rushing touchdowns ranked third.

Sunday would see the defending champs in Kansas City host the surprising Cleveland Browns. Now 12-5 after holding off Pittsburgh in the WildCard Round, Cleveland carried the third most potent running attack – averaging 148.4 yards per game. They ranked fourth in attempts (495) and fifth in both yards per rush (4.8) and rushing touchdowns (21). Both played their final games of the season over the weekend, with both teams scoring fewer than 20 points. Baltimore fell to Buffalo, 17-3 (gamebook) (summary), while the Chiefs took down the Browns 22-17 (gamebook) (summary). Each journey to that result, though, was quite different.

Ravens Done In By an Old Weakness

As I speculated about this game last week, I pointed out that Baltimore wasn’t a long drive team. They were a big-play running team, every bit as dependent on the big play as Tampa Bay. Against Buffalo, Baltimore racked up 150 rushing yards – but none of their individual runs struck for more than 19 yards.

As this team still struggles to throw the ball with much effectiveness against the better teams, the more Buffalo forced them to put drives together, the more opportunity it presented for them to take advantage of the inefficiencies in the Baltimore passing attack – an incompletion, a holding penalty, a sack – an interception.

In the pivotal moment of this game, it was that interception that told the tale.

Aware that Jackson had locked onto Andrews, cornerback Taron Johnson dropped his zone a little deeper and edged toward the middle. His interception and subsequent 101-yard return broke the Ravens’ back, sending them home for the offseason, and sending the Bills into Kansas City with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Lamar’s final passing line of 14 for 24 for 162 yards and the interception pans out to a 61.5 passer rating. The rating system isn’t perfect, but that number fairly accurately describes Lamar’s afternoon. Jackson also found himself sacked three times, as Buffalo decided to pressure him. As opposed to Tennessee in the WildCard round – who sent extra rushers after Jackson just 4 times in the game – Buffalo blitzed him 13 times (a full 43.3% of his drop-backs).

This is still an effective approach as it forces Jackson to recognize protections and hot routes and forces him to speed up his process. Last Saturday, it was one final lapse in the passing that ended Baltimore’s season.

Valiant in Defeat

The loss is all the more bitter in light of another marvelous performance by Wink Martindale’s defense. One week after muffling Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s running attack (the Titans were second in the NFL, by the way, at 168.1 rushing yards per game), the Raven defense – with a bit of an assist from the gusting winds – mostly dismantled Josh Allen and his third-ranked passing game.

Josh threw only one touchdown pass of his own, was limited to 206 yards and an 86.1 rating. During the season, Allen ranked fourth in passer rating at 107.2. He averaged just 8.96 yards per completion Saturday night, as Baltimore mostly inhaled his deep passing game. Josh completed just 1 of his 6 passes of more than 20 yards.

Football’s finest receiver (as far as yards and catches go) was still unstoppable. Stefon Diggs finished with 106 yards on 8 catches. But Baltimore shut out two of Buffalo’s more important secondary receivers. Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis had no catches on a combined 6 targets – Davis drawing especially close coverage. On the average throw in his direction, Gabriel had a defender 0.8 yards away.

The second-ranked offense by yards, Buffalo managed just 220 yards against Baltimore, scoring just ten points on offense (remember, the other 7 came courtesy of the Bills’ defense). It was a superior performance, more than worthy of sending the Ravens into the Conference Championship Game.

That will have to be comfort enough for Raven fans between now and next September.

Not the Same Old Browns, But Still . . .

The story in Arrowhead was quite different. Armed with a potent running attack against a team that has shown some weakness in stopping the run, Cleveland decided not to deploy it. Straggling into the locker room at the half, the Browns had run the ball just 6 times for 18 yards. Not coincidentally, Kansas City (which had run the ball 12 times for 60 yards) held a 17:43-12:17 time of possession advantage and a 19-3 lead. Former Chief Kareem Hunt, who had rushed for 841 yards and caught 38 passes for Cleveland this year, had no touches in the half.

The Browns forged their way back into the contest in the second half, on the strength mostly, of that running game.

Neglected for thirty minutes, Cleveland punched through the KC defense to the tune of 94 second-half rushing yards at a clip of 5.9 yards per carry. Had they started the game that way, the story might have been different. As it was, Cleveland began the second half in catch-up mode, and the passing game wasn’t up to the challenge.

Against the 94 rushing yards, Baker Mayfield threw for only 70 yards in the second half – averaging just 3.5 yards per attempted pass and 5.83 yards per completed pass – some of that influenced by a KC game-plan that blitzed Baker on 52.6% of his drop-backs.

As Cleveland’s season ends, and as KC prepares to meet Buffalo, it’s fair to remember how far the Browns have come this year. Just 6-10 last year, Cleveland is only three years removed from the team that was 0-16 in 2017. Whether or not they have actually turned a corner is a question that will have to wait for next year. They still lost both games to Baltimore this year, and the first game to Pittsburgh. That they beat the Steelers in the season’s final game is more attributable to Pittsburgh resting its starters. Their conquest of the Steelers in the WildCard round still feels more like a Pittsburgh meltdown than anything that Cleveland did – remember, that game began with the snap sailing over Ben Roethlisberger’s head and things went south from there.

Still, this Cleveland team nearly came all the way back against Kansas City after trailing by 16 points. But for a heart-breaking fumble through the end zone that eliminated a golden first half scoring opportunity, Cleveland might well be preparing for Buffalo. This Cleveland franchise will be one to keep an eye on next year.

Of Huntley and Henne

Adding to the intrigue of the Divisional Round games – and possibly to the Championship Game – both Baltimore and Kansas City finished the game (and not by choice) with their backup quarterbacks on the field as both of the league’s last two MVP quarterbacks went out of the game with concussions.

In Buffalo, on the drive that followed the pick six, Jackson had a second-down snap sail over his head. Lamar chased it down and managed to heave it out of bounds before he was tumbled by Tremaine Edmunds and Trent Murphy. He landed on his back in the end zone – bouncing his head off the turf. It was his last play of the season.

Into the breach came Tyler Huntley – a rookie out of Utah who had thrown 5 passes during the regular season. Tyler was Baltimore’s third back-up quarterback of the year after various difficulties befell Robert Griffin III and Trace McSorley.

Tyler wasn’t terrible. He completed 6 of 13 for 60 yards and ran for another 32. On Baltimore’s last possession of the season, Tyler drove the team to the Buffalo ten-yard line, where his fourth-down-pass was deflected away by Edmunds.

Honestly, at that point, the absence of Jackson wasn’t much of an issue. Lamar has never brought a team back from a 14-point deficit, and it’s most unlikely that this would have been the night. In this game, Jackson’s absence was mostly a footnote. That wasn’t the case in Kansas City.

Henne-thing’s Possible

About half-way through the third quarter, KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes tried to skirt right end to convert a third-and-one. He couldn’t get around Mack Wilson, and then struggled to get up after the hit.

And suddenly, the season rested on the shoulders of back-up Chad Henne.

From the hoopla that surrounded the event, one would think that no back-up quarterback in NFL history had ever made a play in a game. In truth, Chad’s situation wasn’t nearly as dire as the 35-3 deficit that Frank Reich inherited against Houston all those years ago. Still, there were plays that needed to be made, and Chad made them.

He entered a 19-10 game (KC in front), facing a fourth-and-one. He would finish this drive and have two more of his own in the fourth quarter. In this drive, he was on his 48-yard line, still needing quite a few yards to get into field goal range. This is a drive I will get back to.

On his subsequent possession, Chad threw an interception into the end zone to open the door a crack. The Chief defense quieted the uprising, forcing a punt that gave the ball back to Henne with 4:09 left in someone’s season – Kansas City clinging to a 22-17 lead.

Here, Chad’s job was to run out the clock. More than anything else, KC didn’t want to give the ball back to the Browns. It was during this drive that the legend of Chad Henne was born.

On third-and-four with 3:21 left, Chad completed a five-yard pass to Darrel Williams (whose contributions to this game would equal those of Henne). Then, on the final play before the two-minute warning, Chad suffered a sack at the hands of Myles Garrett.

Now, it was third-and-fourteen with KC still pretty deep in their own territory (their own 35). Without a huge play here, Cleveland would be getting the ball back with around a minute left to do something with. With his receivers covered and the pocket collapsing, Chad Henne pulled the ball down and darted up the left sideline. As he approached the first-down marker – and with M.J. Stewart closing in – Chad hurled himself, head-first, toward that precious first-down line.

As he slid across that line, the KC sideline (and the fans in the stadium) erupted. The moment was so galvanizing that it didn’t even matter that the officials marked the ball just short – bringing up fourth-and-inches. At that point, it only served to add one more memory for Chad – a five-yard, fourth-down completion to Tyreek Hill in the right flat that put a bow on things.

That Final Field Goal

The Chad Henne moment was – without a doubt – the most romantic moment of this round. He could be even more important in the Championship Game, depending on how things develop with Mahomes – who is in concussion protocol.

But, I keep coming back to that moment when Chad first came into the game – with a fairly critical first down to get.

Talking to the press after the game, coach Andy Reid made a point of the fact that the loss of Mahomes didn’t weaken the knees of his football team at all. That was evidenced on the fourth-and-one play, when Williams burst around left end for 12 yards to earn the first down with authority. He shot around the right end for 16 more on the next play (dragging Browns as he went), to pull the ball down to the Cleveland 24.

Four plays later, Harrison Butker kicked the 33-yard field goal that gave them an important buffer.

Williams – who finished with 78 rushing yards and 16 more on pass receptions – spent much of the season – like Henne – deep on the depth chart. His opportunity in this game came because of the injury to number-one back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. During the season, he had only 39 carries.

Sung and Unsung

Kansas City has now won 23 of Patrick Mahomes’ last 24 starts. So much of the attention during this run has gone to the marquee names – Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, etc. And justifiably so. These are franchise talents that have combined to vault this team into the elite circles of the NFL.

But just as critical are the contributions of many other players you don’t hear much about. Demarcus Robinson, Daniel Sorensen, Tanoh Kpassagnon – and now Darrel Williams and Chad Henne. These guys aren’t the most awe-inspiring talents to dot an NFL roster. But what they are is play-makers. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that Kansas City’s roster is deeper in guts than it is in raw talent, but the fact is that the deeper you grind into the playoffs the more important the guts of a team becomes.

There are now four teams left in the tournament. With most of them, I’m not at all sure how they will respond to the critical moments that will decide these last three games. But I know how Kansas City will respond. Someone on this roster will make a play. It might be a small play to keep a drive going, or pulling a receiver down a yard short of the first-down marker. It might be a play that the media won’t remember after the game.

But when the money is on the table, you can be sure that someone on this roster – starter or reserve – will make a play. Buffalo’s challenge is actually greater than It appears on paper.

But, if Patrick can’t go . . .

The NFL Profiles as a Touchdown Pass League

Four teams are left standing – in many ways, very disparate in their approaches to winning. It’s an interesting blend of strengths and weaknesses that will make, no doubt, for a lively finish.

These four teams do, though, have one commonality that binds them together. Their quarterbacks get the ball into the end zone.

Looking at the last four quarterbacks standing, we have Aaron Rodgers In Green Bay. His 48 touchdown passes led the league. He will be matched this weekend against Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, who’s 40 touchdown passes ranked him second (tied with Seattle’s Russell Wilson). The AFC Championship Game will pit Number 4 (KC’s Pat Mahomes – assuming he’s available) against Number 5 (Josh Allen of Buffalo). Mahomes threw 38 in the regular season, and Allen tossed 37.

Whatever else you do in the NFL – whether you run and stop the run, throw high-percentage, low interception passes, or spend your games dialing up shot plays – the indispensable accessory your team must have if it’s going to make a deep playoff run is that quarterback who gets you into the end zone.

It’s the NFL’s gold standard in the early years of the new decade.