Waiting til Next Year

With 6:19 left in the football game, Dante Fowler produced an enormous sack of Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady.

Ever since falling behind 23-10 at the half, the Atlanta Falcons had been fighting their way back into their season-ending contest against the Buccaneers.  As the fourth quarter began, the Falcons had narrowed the gap to 23-20, and the two teams traded touchdowns in their first possession of the final quarter.

But now, trailing just 30-27, Atlanta had the Bucs backed up at third-and-12, with still five-and-a-half minutes left in the game.  They needed one stop.

The game wouldn’t get Atlanta into the playoffs – at 4-11 they had long been eliminated.  The game couldn’t knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs.  At 10-5, they had already punched their ticket.  But after a season of maddening defeats, Atlanta stood one stop away from giving their offense a last chance at a kind of redemption.

They needed one stop.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, on this Sunday afternoon, they never did stop the Buccaneers.  With the Falcons pass rush non-existent (they only rushed three on this play), Brady rolled slightly to his right and once again exploited the vulnerable right sideline.  On the afternoon, Brady completed 10 of 15 passes to the offensive right side of the field for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He would get 47 of those yards here, as Chris Godwin settled in behind the cornerback and in front of the safety at the Falcon 7-yard line, where he hauled in a perfect strike from Tom.

Three plays later, Godwin caught a shorter pass from Brady – 4 yards for the touchdown that pushed the lead back up to ten (37-27) with 3:54 left.  Forty-three football seconds later, a Calvin Ridley fumble returned possession to the Buccaneers, and 9 seconds after that, Brady probed that right sideline again – with Antonio Brown on the receiving end of a 30-yard, catch-and-run touchdown that closed the book on this one, 44-27 (gamebook) (summary).

Tampa Bay Rolls On

With the victory, Tampa Bay cemented the fifth seed in the upcoming WildCard Weekend – they will head into Washington to play the “Football Team.”  The Tampa Bay team that struggled for any kind of consistency during a 7-5 start, finished the season winning their final four games – averaging 37 points a game in those contests.  What changed?

Mostly, it was things I pointed out earlier in the year.  A little more consistency in the running game, and the pass protection shored itself up considerably.  After Brady went down 17 times in the first 12 games, he has been dropped 5 times in the last four (3 of those in the first game against Atlanta).  Against the Falcons last Sunday, in fact, his protection was so good that he was provided with more than 2.5 seconds in the pocket on 27 of his 41 pass attempts (66%). 

Given lots of time for his receivers to work their way downfield, Tom went on to make short work of the Falcon secondary.  He completed 18 of those 27 passes for 342 yards (12.67 yards per attempted pass and 19 yards per completion).  After spending the early part of the season missing on his downfield tosses, Tom was 3-for-8 on passes more than 20 yards from scrimmage.  Those completions accounted for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns.

For the afternoon, Tom threw for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He averaged 15.35 yards on his 26 completions.

It has also helped that the four teams that Tampa Bay subdued – a list which includes Atlanta twice – are among the league’s worst defensive teams – especially when it comes to pass defense.  The Falcons finished twenty-seventh in passer rating against.  Minnesota finished twenty-third, and Detroit finished dead last, allowing opposing passers a 112.4 rating.  None of those teams was ever able to generate any kind of consistent pass rush, either (the two situations often go hand in hand).  The Falcons were twenty-sixth in sack rate, while the Viking and Lions tied for twenty-eighth, each managing to put the opposing passer on the turf on only 4.1% of his drop-backs.

Tampa Bay has been on an impressive run – led by their quarterback.  Since falling behind Atlanta 17-0 in the first half three weeks ago, Brady has completed 69 of his last 97 passes (71.1%) for 1067 yards (11.00 yards per attempt, and 15.5 per completion), with a 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio – good for a satisfactory 137.3 passer rating.

It’s enough to make Tampa Bay fans giddy, but the shadow of their previous struggles still hangs over this team.  Until this offense shows that it can handle a team that can pressure the quarterback – and the Washington team they are about to face is such a team – these questions will continue to follow them.

The Falcons Wait til Next Year – Again

For the Falcons, it’s another season of waiting for next year – this final loss like so many others this year (except that they never held a lead to spit up).  The two plays mentioned earlier were just two of several that could have turned this one around.

Rolling out a surprising short-passing game designed to control the clock and keep Brady off the field, Atlanta forged four long drives that consumed more than six minutes each.  They scored touchdowns on two of them, but the other two both petered out on the Tampa Bay 3-yard line.  Those two drives combined for 28 plays and 149 yards while eating 14:16 off the clock – but resulted in only 6 points combined.

(By the way, running an offense that may be very similar to the attack that Tampa Bay may see against Alex Smith and the Football Team, Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan threw no passes more than 20 yards from scrimmage, but completed 23 of 30 (76.7%) short passes into Tampa’s very vulnerable underneath zone defenses.  Throw in a bit of bad weather in Washington, and Tampa Bay could be in for a lot more trouble than they might anticipate.)

As for the Falcon defense, they never showed up.  Tampa Bay never went three-and-out.  In their nine possessions before the final one (in which they ran out the clock), Tampa Bay scored on 8 of them (five of them touchdowns).  Each drive ended in Atlanta territory, and the only time they didn’t score, they lost the ball on a fluky interception.  Receiver Scott Miller, attempting a diving catch, had the ball ricochet off his shoulder as he hit the ground.  The ball popped into the air, where defensive back Ricardo Allen gathered it in.

Other than that, it was another dismal defensive performance.

This Falcon franchise has never recovered from blowing that 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI.  Now, after three consecutive losing seasons, the remnants of that team have started to go – and more may follow.  Coach Dan Quinn was let go after an 0-5 start.  Thirty-five-year-old Ryan and 31-year-old receiver Julio Jones (who missed the last few games of the season with a hamstring injury) may follow as the Falcons may very well embark on a rebuilding program.

That will depend – in large part – on the decision of the still-to-be-hired general manager.  So this team could look very different by kickoff 20201.

For the record, Matt Ryan doesn’t believe that they need to tear everything down and start over.  Neither does interim coach Raheem Morris.  They both believe this team is very close.

For that matter, so does everyone who has played the Falcons this year.  This might, in fact, be one of the most highly-regarded 4-12 teams in NFL history.

But, at least until next year, they are just a 4-12 team.

Dolphins Also Waiting Til Next Year

The Tua Tagovailoa era in Miami began in Week Eight with a 28-17 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.  In that game, Miami’s defense and special teams both scored touchdowns in support of the rookie quarterback.  Miami would go on to win Tua’s first three starts, and five of his first six.  The team that was 5-11 and in last place in its division last year was now 8-4 and had suddenly thrust itself into the playoff conversation.

Tua Season One came to an abrupt end last Sunday afternoon, as the young Dolphin squad was shredded by the Buffalo Bills, 56-26 (gamebook) (summary).  That game formed an uncommon symmetry with Tua’s first game in that the Bills got touchdowns from both their defense and special teams.

In one sense, the Dolphins – who would have earned a playoff berth with a win – fell short because they are still developmentally behind the Bills.  In a larger sense, though, they simply failed to overcome their 1-3 start.  In winning nine of their final twelve, Miami would have fought its way into the dance if they had managed just one more early win.  In Week Two they lost to this same Buffalo team, 31-28.  Two weeks later, they lost a one-score game to Seattle (31-23).  One more play in either of those games, and who knows.

This last game was fairly decided by halftime – as Buffalo carried a 28-6 lead into the locker room.  Even in what has been a very nice turn-around season, you might forgive Dolphin fans if they were a little antsy about Tua and the future of this program at that point.  Tagovailoa went into the locker at the half having completed 12 passes, but for only 89 yards.  His 4.68 yards per pass attempt and 7.42 yards per completion played into some lingering, season-long concerns.  Tua entered the contest averaging just 9.6 yards per completion.  Of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, that average ranked thirty-fourth.

Let’s just say that the early sampling of Tagovailoa wasn’t terribly evocative of what Tom Brady was doing in Tampa Bay.

The second half of that game, though, would throw a bit of a twist on the Tagovailoa narrative.  Previously, a short tossing, safety-first signal caller (he had thrown just 2 interceptions all season), Tua morphed into an up-the-field, high-risk, high-reward gunslinger.  With “relief pitcher” Ryan Fitzpatrick unavailable (due to a positive COVID test), Miami had little choice but to saddle up Tua and try to engineer a comeback.  That didn’t come close to happening, but the proceedings proved to be more interesting than anticipated.

In 8 second half possessions, the Dolphins racked up 332 yards (yes, in one half) and 21 first downs.  Tua threw for 272 yards in that half (more than in all but two of his previous complete games).  In those 8 drives, the Dolphins scored 3 touchdowns (one on a pass from Tagovailoa), turned the ball over 4 times (3 on interceptions from Tagovailoa), and had the other drive end on downs after their only 10-play drive of the game had taken them to the Buffalo 48.

After scoring a combined 48 points through the first three quarters, Buffalo and Miami combined to put up 34 in the fourth quarter alone – making for an entertaining, if not frightfully close, contest.

As for Tua, he finished the game 4-for-8 on passes of more than twenty yards for 104 of his 361 passing yards.

I’m not saying that this one half will turn Tua into a born-again gunslinger.  But it should, I think, allay some concerns about his deep-ball abilities.

Moving On

As for the Bills, they are division winners for the first time since 1995, and have qualified for the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1998-1999.  That’s quite a few years.

And they roll into the playoffs as hot as anyone.  They have won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10.

That being said, I do have concerns about the Bills.  Of primary concern is a run defense ranked seventeenth in the league only because the high-scoring offense has mostly protected it.  They are still serving up 4.6 yards per rush attempt (which ranks twenty-sixth), and have yielded ground yards to every team that has tried to run against them.  There really isn’t a ground attack that they’ve faced that I would say they have actually stopped.

My other concern is how this team will respond in an alley fight.  Almost all of their recent victories have been by sizable margins – and have been especially characterized by quarterback Josh Allen standing in comfortably clean pockets throwing to wide open receivers.  What will happen when this team runs into a team that will pressure them – that will force them to win the game by making contested plays in critical moments?  Will they be able to win the ugly games that you frequently have to win in the playoffs?  That’s what I’m waiting for this Bills team to show me.

None of this, though, should come into play on Saturday.  I expect their victory over Indianapolis to be similar to some of their other recent wins.

My take on the Colts is that they are a team that does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well.  They are a very solid, but unspectacular club.  In that regard, I think that they are dangerous team – but they don’t have enough playmakers to answer Buffalo’s high-level passing attack.

The Bills will be tried – but probably not this week.

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