Archives for January 2021

What Happens When He’s Not There?

In the second game of the 2019 season, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger felt a twinge in his throwing arm as he delivered a pass. And that was it for him. His 2019 season was over that quickly.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh – as with most teams – the loss of their starting quarterback was pretty much the death-knell for their season. A probable playoff team, last year’s Steelers struggled to an 8-8 finish. This year, both San Francisco and Dallas saw their seasons eviscerated by the loss of their starting quarterbacks. The 49ers went to the Super Bowl last year. This year, they floundered to a 6-10 record (of course, quarterback was not their only significant injury in 2020). The Cowboys just missed last year’s playoffs (they were 8-8). They also finished 2020 with a 6-10 record. They were down to their third-string quarterback for a stretch of the season.

If you follow a team for any number of years, then your team has almost certainly – from time to time – had to deal with the loss of your starting quarterback.

So there are many in the NFL family who can fully commiserate with the situation that unfolded in SoFi Stadium, last Sunday. With a playoff berth on the line in the final game of the regular season, the Arizona Cardinals faced off against the Los Angeles Rams and their backup quarterback John Wolford – who had never thrown a pass in the NFL.

One series into the game, and Arizona was down to their second string quarterback as well – a chap named Chris Streveler, who – like Wolford – had never thrown an NFL pass.

Of the two challenging situations, the Rams suddenly had the advantage. They at least knew during the week that they would be going with their backup, and had the opportunity to adjust the game plan around him. For Arizona, they found out slightly more than three minutes into the game that everything was going to have to change.

Neither backup dazzled – although both had their moments. Neither was terrible – although both threw interceptions that cost their teams touchdowns. For Arizona, though, that touchdown would be their only scoring on the day. The Rams fared better – if only moderately so.

Yes, the Rams were 0-for-4 in the Red Zone – but at least they got there. Using a controlled passing game and – surprisingly – the legs of Wolford, LA managed four drives that lasted at least ten plays – three of which consumed more than six and a half minutes of clock time. They ended up with three field goals, with the other drive ending with a fumble on the Arizona goal line. The Cardinals recovered that fumble – temporarily avoiding disaster – only to give back two points on a safety two plays later.

All of that, and a Troy Hill touchdown on an interception return, was enough for the Rams to claim the sixth seed in the playoffs and send Arizona home by an 18-7 score (gamebook) (summary).

For the afternoon, John Wolford became the closest thing either team had to a Kyler Murray (Arizona’s starting quarterback). John picked up 56 rushing yards on six runs – four of them designed runs, and 2 scrambles. He picked up 4 first downs with his legs – more than the rest of the runners on his team combined (Cam Akers and Malcom Brown combined for just 3) and as many running first downs as the entire Arizona team (they managed 4 as well).

Which brings me to my afternoon’s rumination. Setting aside the added preparation time that Wolford had and just looking at these two backup quarterbacks, their skill sets and the systems they operate in, which would you say would have an easier time stepping in for the starter? John Wolford taking over for Jared Goff? Or Chris Steveler replacing for Kyler Murray? I believe a convincing argument could be made here for Wolford. This wouldn’t be because John is necessarily any more talented than Chris. It would have to do more with the offenses they were sliding into.

The rage over the last several years has been the dual-threat quarterback. Murray, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson – there are several others. These are young quarterbacks who are raising the bar of athleticism for the position across the NFL – quarterbacks who run by design, not just when the pass play breaks down. The threat of these guys pulling the ball back and darting through the line for chunk running plays keeps defensive coordinators up at night.

But what happens when you design your offense around a particular talent and then you lose that talent? What happens when he’s not there? In earlier interviews, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh discussed how every personnel decision that the entire organization made revolved around the singular talent of Lamar Jackson. Harbaugh is a brilliant coach, and he has constructed a wondrous football chrysalis around Jackson designed in every particular to enhance his skill set and minimize his weaknesses.

But what happens when the irreplaceable talent needs to be replaced? In a critical game against Pittsburgh this season, Jackson wasn’t available due to that COVID thing. In his place, the substantial talent of Robert Griffin III – whose skill set is similar to Jackson’s – tried to run the same offense with no real success. The Ravens managed just 219 total yards and lost 19-14.

In fairness to RGIII, Baltimore’s practice time was almost non-existent – again due to the COVID outbreak that they were trying to manage. But even given adequate amounts of practice time, there is only one Lamar Jackson – and if his singular talent is the epicenter of your football organization, then when that light blinks out – whether for a game or a season – your football universe finds itself in a very dark place.

This is why I suspect that the dual-threat quarterback will end up being more fad than revolution.

When the Rams realized that Jared Goff would be unable to start, they didn’t have to abandon their offense. If Wolford wasn’t able to operate the full complexity of the system, he was nonetheless able to run some of Goff’s offense, and the Rams were able to match the parts that he was comfortable with.

In fact, since John is noticeably more mobile than Jared, the Rams were able to add into the offense the kind of designed runs that worked so well for them last Sunday. Conversely, no amount of preparation could make Streveler comfortable in Murray’s offense because Chris doesn’t add the critical piece to this offense that Kyler does.

Arizona’s offensive identity is as one of football’s best running teams. They entered the game averaging 4.7 yards per rush, their 145.9 rushing yards per game ranked third in the league, and their 22 rushing touchdowns were the second most. The problem here is that Arizona’s elite running attack is fitted tightly around Kyler Murray’s legs. Going into the game, he was responsible for half of their rushing touchdowns and more than a third of their rushing yards. Remove his 54.5 rushing yards per game from the team total, and Arizona immediately falls into the lower half of the league’s running attacks.

Kyler’s edge speed might have been Arizona’s equalizer against the stout defensive line of Los Angeles’ third-ranked run defense (allowing 94.1 yards per game, and 3.8 per rush). Without that outside aspect to worry about, the Rams inhaled Arizona’s formerly elite running attack.

Donald and Fox

Discussion of the Los Angeles defense always begins – as it should – with tackle Aaron Donald. As usual, Aaron was a force against the Cardinals. Also catching my eye, though, was fourth-year defender Morgan Fox. As the season has gone on, and his opportunities have increased, Fox has been developing into an impact player on the Ram defensive line.

Morgan, of course, got the sack that knocked Murray out for most of the game. His work against the Cardinal running game was equally impressive, as his improving technique allows his natural strength to impact games.

Barely a minute into the game, with Murray still under center, the Cards faced a second-and-three on their own 43. The run design would send Kenyan Drake off right tackle, with left tackle D.J. Humphries pulling to lead through the hole. But Fox slipped under the pads of right tackle Kelvin Beachum and drove him into the backfield – into the pulling lineman that had come to open the hole, creating something of a train wreck in the Arizona backfield. Morgan then sifted through the bodies until he found the running back and pulled him to the ground.

He made a similar play on the left side with 2:32 left in the first half – the Cards facing second-and-six on their own 24. This time he drove Humphries into the backfield and tossed him to one side before corralling Drake. Game by game, Morgan is developing into a worthy line-mate of the great Aaron Donald.

At only 6-1, Aaron isn’t the tallest of defensive linemen – a characteristic that actually helps him gain leverage – but one look suggests that he is one of the strongest players in the NFL. That would be an accurate assessment.

With 12:50 left in the first quarter, Arizona was sending Drake off right tackle again. Donald lined up on the left side over guard Justin Pugh. With the play going away from Aaron, Arizona apparently thought they would be okay pulling Pugh to the right side and asking center Mason Cole to cross-block on Donald.

After getting underneath Cole’s attempted block, Donald drove him all the way across the formation, eventually pushing Cole out of the way and tackling Drake two yards deep in the backfield.

But for as strong as Aaron is, it’s his quickness and intelligence that sets him apart.

There’s 5:46 left in the game, and Arizona faces a first-and-fifteen from the Ram 45. Donald lines up over the right shoulder of right guard Justin Murray. One second before the snap, Aaron jumps to the other side of Murray so that he is in what they call the “A” gap – that space between the center and guard. Almost immediately after he arrived at that new position, the ball was snapped, and Aaron flew past Murray in one fluid motion. The moment that Kyler (who was then back in the game) handed the ball to Chase Edmonds, Aaron was there to harvest him for a three-yard loss.

About five minutes earlier, Kyler called the read-option. At the snap, Aaron immediately took away the inside run, executing a swim move on Pugh that you almost have to run the tape in slow motion to see.

Clearly unable to hand the ball off, Kyler pulled it back and tried to make it to the edge. His problem now was Fox – the unblocked end that he was supposed to “read.” Seeing that Donald had taken away the inside run, Morgan realized that he didn’t have to crash inside, and stayed wide to play the quarterback keeper.

Out of other options, Kyler tried to outrace Morgan to the edge – and on another day, he just might have. But Murray’s ankle injury cost him just enough speed that he couldn’t quite get past Fox. Morgan grabbed his shoulder as he was passing and pulled him down for a four-yard loss.

By game’s end, Arizona had rushed for nearly 100 yards below their season average. They finished with 48 yards and a 2.7 average (2 yards below their season average). In the second half, they gained 7 yards on 7 carries. This is not a formula for victory for the Cards.

Rams Next Get the Seahawks

Onward and upward for the Rams will lead them back into Seattle for the second time in three weeks for another inter-division rematch. The teams split their first two meeting this year, with the Rams winning 23-16 in Week Ten, and the Hawks getting their revenge, 20-9, in Week 16 (the win that clinched the division for them).

Of all of the WildCard games, this is the hardest to call – made none the easier by the uncertainty of Goff’s injury. Will he play? How well will he play if he does?

Even beyond those questions, we have two teams that know each other inside and out. Add to the fact that Seattle’s offense hasn’t looked in sync against a winning team since they lost a 44-34 contest to Buffalo in Week Nine.

This one reads like a coin flip going in. I’m going to lean to the Seahawks, only because they are the most comfortable in these kinds of tight, one-score games

On some level, it feels only fitting that one of these rivals should be the one to end the other’s season.

Football

Waiting til Next Year

With 6:19 left in the football game, Dante Fowler produced an enormous sack of Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady.

Ever since falling behind 23-10 at the half, the Atlanta Falcons had been fighting their way back into their season-ending contest against the Buccaneers. As the fourth quarter began, the Falcons had narrowed the gap to 23-20, and the two teams traded touchdowns in their first possession of the final quarter.

But now, trailing just 30-27, Atlanta had the Bucs backed up at third-and-12, with still five-and-a-half minutes left in the game. They needed one stop.

The game wouldn’t get Atlanta into the playoffs – at 4-11 they had long been eliminated. The game couldn’t knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs. At 10-5, they had already punched their ticket. But after a season of maddening defeats, Atlanta stood one stop away from giving their offense a last chance at a kind of redemption.

They needed one stop.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, on this Sunday afternoon, they never did stop the Buccaneers. With the Falcons pass rush non-existent (they only rushed three on this play), Brady rolled slightly to his right and once again exploited the vulnerable right sideline. On the afternoon, Brady completed 10 of 15 passes to the offensive right side of the field for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. He would get 47 of those yards here, as Chris Godwin settled in behind the cornerback and in front of the safety at the Falcon 7-yard line, where he hauled in a perfect strike from Tom.

Three plays later, Godwin caught a shorter pass from Brady – 4 yards for the touchdown that pushed the lead back up to ten (37-27) with 3:54 left. Forty-three football seconds later, a Calvin Ridley fumble returned possession to the Buccaneers, and 9 seconds after that, Brady probed that right sideline again – with Antonio Brown on the receiving end of a 30-yard, catch-and-run touchdown that closed the book on this one, 44-27 (gamebook) (summary).

Tampa Bay Rolls On

With the victory, Tampa Bay cemented the fifth seed in the upcoming WildCard Weekend – they will head into Washington to play the “Football Team.” The Tampa Bay team that struggled for any kind of consistency during a 7-5 start, finished the season winning their final four games – averaging 37 points a game in those contests. What changed?

Mostly, it was things I pointed out earlier in the year. A little more consistency in the running game, and the pass protection shored itself up considerably. After Brady went down 17 times in the first 12 games, he has been dropped 5 times in the last four (3 of those in the first game against Atlanta). Against the Falcons last Sunday, in fact, his protection was so good that he was provided with more than 2.5 seconds in the pocket on 27 of his 41 pass attempts (66%).

Given lots of time for his receivers to work their way downfield, Tom went on to make short work of the Falcon secondary. He completed 18 of those 27 passes for 342 yards (12.67 yards per attempted pass and 19 yards per completion). After spending the early part of the season missing on his downfield tosses, Tom was 3-for-8 on passes more than 20 yards from scrimmage. Those completions accounted for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns.

For the afternoon, Tom threw for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns. He averaged 15.35 yards on his 26 completions.

It has also helped that the four teams that Tampa Bay subdued – a list which includes Atlanta twice – are among the league’s worst defensive teams – especially when it comes to pass defense. The Falcons finished twenty-seventh in passer rating against. Minnesota finished twenty-third, and Detroit finished dead last, allowing opposing passers a 112.4 rating. None of those teams was ever able to generate any kind of consistent pass rush, either (the two situations often go hand in hand). The Falcons were twenty-sixth in sack rate, while the Viking and Lions tied for twenty-eighth, each managing to put the opposing passer on the turf on only 4.1% of his drop-backs.

Tampa Bay has been on an impressive run – led by their quarterback. Since falling behind Atlanta 17-0 in the first half three weeks ago, Brady has completed 69 of his last 97 passes (71.1%) for 1067 yards (11.00 yards per attempt, and 15.5 per completion), with a 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio – good for a satisfactory 137.3 passer rating.

It’s enough to make Tampa Bay fans giddy, but the shadow of their previous struggles still hangs over this team. Until this offense shows that it can handle a team that can pressure the quarterback – and the Washington team they are about to face is such a team – these questions will continue to follow them.

The Falcons Wait til Next Year – Again

For the Falcons, it’s another season of waiting for next year – this final loss like so many others this year (except that they never held a lead to spit up). The two plays mentioned earlier were just two of several that could have turned this one around.

Rolling out a surprising short-passing game designed to control the clock and keep Brady off the field, Atlanta forged four long drives that consumed more than six minutes each. They scored touchdowns on two of them, but the other two both petered out on the Tampa Bay 3-yard line. Those two drives combined for 28 plays and 149 yards while eating 14:16 off the clock – but resulted in only 6 points combined.

(By the way, running an offense that may be very similar to the attack that Tampa Bay may see against Alex Smith and the Football Team, Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan threw no passes more than 20 yards from scrimmage, but completed 23 of 30 (76.7%) short passes into Tampa’s very vulnerable underneath zone defenses. Throw in a bit of bad weather in Washington, and Tampa Bay could be in for a lot more trouble than they might anticipate.)

As for the Falcon defense, they never showed up. Tampa Bay never went three-and-out. In their nine possessions before the final one (in which they ran out the clock), Tampa Bay scored on 8 of them (five of them touchdowns). Each drive ended in Atlanta territory, and the only time they didn’t score, they lost the ball on a fluky interception. Receiver Scott Miller, attempting a diving catch, had the ball ricochet off his shoulder as he hit the ground. The ball popped into the air, where defensive back Ricardo Allen gathered it in.

Other than that, it was another dismal defensive performance.

This Falcon franchise has never recovered from blowing that 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI. Now, after three consecutive losing seasons, the remnants of that team have started to go – and more may follow. Coach Dan Quinn was let go after an 0-5 start. Thirty-five-year-old Ryan and 31-year-old receiver Julio Jones (who missed the last few games of the season with a hamstring injury) may follow as the Falcons may very well embark on a rebuilding program.

That will depend – in large part – on the decision of the still-to-be-hired general manager. So this team could look very different by kickoff 20201.

For the record, Matt Ryan doesn’t believe that they need to tear everything down and start over. Neither does interim coach Raheem Morris. They both believe this team is very close.

For that matter, so does everyone who has played the Falcons this year. This might, in fact, be one of the most highly-regarded 4-12 teams in NFL history.

But, at least until next year, they are just a 4-12 team.

Dolphins Also Waiting Til Next Year

The Tua Tagovailoa era in Miami began in Week Eight with a 28-17 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. In that game, Miami’s defense and special teams both scored touchdowns in support of the rookie quarterback. Miami would go on to win Tua’s first three starts, and five of his first six. The team that was 5-11 and in last place in its division last year was now 8-4 and had suddenly thrust itself into the playoff conversation.

Tua Season One came to an abrupt end last Sunday afternoon, as the young Dolphin squad was shredded by the Buffalo Bills, 56-26 (gamebook) (summary). That game formed an uncommon symmetry with Tua’s first game in that the Bills got touchdowns from both their defense and special teams.

In one sense, the Dolphins – who would have earned a playoff berth with a win – fell short because they are still developmentally behind the Bills. In a larger sense, though, they simply failed to overcome their 1-3 start. In winning nine of their final twelve, Miami would have fought its way into the dance if they had managed just one more early win. In Week Two they lost to this same Buffalo team, 31-28. Two weeks later, they lost a one-score game to Seattle (31-23). One more play in either of those games, and who knows.

This last game was fairly decided by halftime – as Buffalo carried a 28-6 lead into the locker room. Even in what has been a very nice turn-around season, you might forgive Dolphin fans if they were a little antsy about Tua and the future of this program at that point. Tagovailoa went into the locker at the half having completed 12 passes, but for only 89 yards. His 4.68 yards per pass attempt and 7.42 yards per completion played into some lingering, season-long concerns. Tua entered the contest averaging just 9.6 yards per completion. Of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, that average ranked thirty-fourth.

Let’s just say that the early sampling of Tagovailoa wasn’t terribly evocative of what Tom Brady was doing in Tampa Bay.

The second half of that game, though, would throw a bit of a twist on the Tagovailoa narrative. Previously, a short tossing, safety-first signal caller (he had thrown just 2 interceptions all season), Tua morphed into an up-the-field, high-risk, high-reward gunslinger. With “relief pitcher” Ryan Fitzpatrick unavailable (due to a positive COVID test), Miami had little choice but to saddle up Tua and try to engineer a comeback. That didn’t come close to happening, but the proceedings proved to be more interesting than anticipated.

In 8 second half possessions, the Dolphins racked up 332 yards (yes, in one half) and 21 first downs. Tua threw for 272 yards in that half (more than in all but two of his previous complete games). In those 8 drives, the Dolphins scored 3 touchdowns (one on a pass from Tagovailoa), turned the ball over 4 times (3 on interceptions from Tagovailoa), and had the other drive end on downs after their only 10-play drive of the game had taken them to the Buffalo 48.

After scoring a combined 48 points through the first three quarters, Buffalo and Miami combined to put up 34 in the fourth quarter alone – making for an entertaining, if not frightfully close, contest.

As for Tua, he finished the game 4-for-8 on passes of more than twenty yards for 104 of his 361 passing yards.

I’m not saying that this one half will turn Tua into a born-again gunslinger. But it should, I think, allay some concerns about his deep-ball abilities.

Moving On

As for the Bills, they are division winners for the first time since 1995, and have qualified for the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1998-1999. That’s quite a few years.

And they roll into the playoffs as hot as anyone. They have won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10.

That being said, I do have concerns about the Bills. Of primary concern is a run defense ranked seventeenth in the league only because the high-scoring offense has mostly protected it. They are still serving up 4.6 yards per rush attempt (which ranks twenty-sixth), and have yielded ground yards to every team that has tried to run against them. There really isn’t a ground attack that they’ve faced that I would say they have actually stopped.

My other concern is how this team will respond in an alley fight. Almost all of their recent victories have been by sizable margins – and have been especially characterized by quarterback Josh Allen standing in comfortably clean pockets throwing to wide open receivers. What will happen when this team runs into a team that will pressure them – that will force them to win the game by making contested plays in critical moments? Will they be able to win the ugly games that you frequently have to win in the playoffs? That’s what I’m waiting for this Bills team to show me.

None of this, though, should come into play on Saturday. I expect their victory over Indianapolis to be similar to some of their other recent wins.

My take on the Colts is that they are a team that does everything well, but nothing exceptionally well. They are a very solid, but unspectacular club. In that regard, I think that they are dangerous team – but they don’t have enough playmakers to answer Buffalo’s high-level passing attack.

The Bills will be tried – but probably not this week.

Football

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios Simplified (as much as is possible)

So, we are now one week from the playoffs, and, as usual, the season’s final games are rife with what ifs and endless playoff permutations. As much as possible, I’ll try to cut through the murkiness and present a reasonable idea of how things will shake out and what you can look for as the weekend develops.

Almost always, come the last day of the season, there are teams that will take the game as an opportunity to rest some people heading into the playoffs. The Chiefs will be doing this. The reigning world champs will give quarterback Patrick Mahomes and, probably, several other key contributors the day off. That decision matters little, as KC has clinched the top seed in the conference, and their opponent (the LA Chargers) are not in contention for a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh, also, has chosen rest over the possibility of securing the number two seed – they will rest Ben Roethlisberger in favor of Mason Rudolph. This is quite a significant decision, not only because it lessens Pittsburgh’s opportunity to achieve the second seed, but because it breathes new life into the playoff chances of the Cleveland Browns – a team whose loss to the Jets last week should have doomed it to another year of watching the playoffs on TV.

Since the AFC is less muddy than the NFC, let’s start there.

AFC Likelihoods

First of all, let’s make the following assumptions. Baltimore (playing 4-10-1 Cincinnati) and Indianapolis (playing 1-14 Jacksonville) will both win. That will make both of those teams 11-5, putting Baltimore in and leaving Indianapolis on the cusp of making it in.

Other teams likely to finish 11-5 are Tennessee (who will have to beat 4-11 Houston) and, now, Cleveland with Pittsburgh in rest mode. This scenario gives the Titans the division title (they will have lost only once in their division), and make Indy the second place team in that division. Baltimore also slots in ahead of Cleveland because they swept them in the season series.

So all of this leaves us with Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Cleveland as teams with at least 11 wins. That’s seven – the number of playoff teams.

That all makes the Miami-Buffalo contest on Sunday the AFC’s most compelling game this week. The most likely occurrence is that Buffalo (currently 12-3 and playing their best ball of the season) will close out Miami (currently 10-5 playing in a cold weather locale and now without Ryan Fitzpatrick available to come off the bench in case starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa struggles – FitzMagic went on the COVID list yesterday).

Assuming that this is the scenario, here is how the AFC will seed out for the playoffs: 1 – Kansas City (already clinched); 2 – Buffalo (probably 13-3); 3 – Pittsburgh (12-4 in this scenario); 4 – Tennessee (11-5). Then, we come to the three 11-5 second and third place teams. As the third-place team, the Browns will take a back seat to the Ravens. With a head-to-head victory over the Colts, the Baltimore will claim the fifth seed. Cleveland also has a head-to-head win against Indy, so they will slot in at six, leaving the Colts as the seventh seed.

This is the most likely resolution, leaving Miami (10-6 in this scenario) out in the cold – literally and figuratively. In this scenario, the Wildcard Round would shape up like this: Buffalo hosting Indianapolis, Pittsburgh playing Cleveland for a second straight week – but this time in Pittsburgh; and another edition of Tennessee vs Baltimore – this time in Tennessee.

Possible variation #1 – Miami Wins

Miami isn’t without a chance against Buffalo. They do have a top defense (one that has produced more than their share of touchdowns) and their special teams have made big plays in several games. Tua hasn’t been a revelation, yet, at quarterback, but he has mostly played mistake free (he’s thrown just 2 interceptions). If Miami manages the upset, that probably won’t affect Buffalo – assuming Pittsburgh still loses, but it will add a fifth 11-5 team into the wild-card mix.

Now, we would have three second-place teams at 11-5. The win against Buffalo would vault the Dolphins into the fifth seed, as it would make their conference record 8-4 (both the Ravens and the Colts would finish at 7-5). Then we would have the Ravens at six and the Browns at seven (remember, both have beaten Indy this season) with the Colts being left out.

Now your WildCard Round would look like this: Buffalo hosts Cleveland, Pittsburgh gets another game against the Ravens, and Tennessee hosts Miami.

Possible Variation #2 – Pittsburgh Wins

Resting a lot of their key people will certainly play to Cleveland’s favor, but it doesn’t guarantee that Pittsburgh will lose. It’s within the realm of the somewhat plausible that Pittsburgh could win this game, anyway.

Should that happen, the top four are still KC, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Now, though, we only have two 11-5 second place teams: Baltimore and Indy. Here, as before the Ravens are number 5, with Indy getting the sixth seed. If both Miami and Cleveland lose, Miami’s conference record will still be better than Cleveland’s, so the Dolphins claim the last spot, leaving the Browns to wait for next year.

Now the Wildcard Round is: Buffalo hosting Miami for the second straight week, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, and Baltimore at Tennessee.

Possible Variation #3 – Miami and Pittsburgh Both Win

Since neither of these teams is likely to win its game, wins by both of them make this the least likely AFC scenario. Note that this is the only combination that drops Buffalo from the second seed. In this permutation, the Steelers would finish 13-3 and the Bills would be 12-4. Now, you would have three 11-5 second-place teams that would be the Wild Card invitees. Miami, with the conference record, would claim the fifth seed, with Baltimore sixth and Indy seventh. Here, again, the Browns would be out. There are no favorable playoff scenarios for Cleveland that do not begin with them beating Pittsburgh.

Under this final scenario, WildCard Weekend would be Pittsburgh hosting Indy, Buffalo would get Baltimore (what a fascinating matchup that would be), and Miami would go to Tennessee.

NFC Possibilities

By comparison, the NFC is somewhat less straightforward..

Let’s start with the East Division. This is a small universe unto itself. With Washington’s loss to Carolina, there is now no chance for any of these teams to finish at .500. They will send their champion to the dance, and that team will go in as the fourth seed. There will be no wildcard team from this division. Three of the four teams still are in play, with only the Eagles being eliminated. Conveniently, they all play each other on the season’s last day.

The Cowboys/Giants will be the undercard – they will play the early Sunday game, with the Eagles and the Football Team playing on Sunday night. The winner of the first game will inherit the title if Washington should lose. If Dallas and Washington both win, both will finish 7-9. In that event Washington get the crown. They swept the two games against the Cowboys this year. If the Giants and Eagles win, then Washington, Dallas and New York all end up 6-10. That would give the Giants the division, based on division record – they would be 4-2 against their brethren, with Washington 3-3 and Dallas 2-4.

So, to keep it simple, Washington wins and they’re in. If they lose, the winner of the other game takes the crown. I believe it is more likely than not that Washington wins – but only if Alex Smith (who was taking snaps with the first team yesterday) is healthy enough to start. Dallas is playing the best ball in this division right now, so if the Football Team falters, Dallas is the better bet to represent the mighty NFC East in the playoffs.

The other three division titles have already been claimed. Green Bay (12-3) is the North champion, New Orleans (11-4) has won the South, and Seattle (11-4) is your NFC West champion.

A Packer win in Week 17 gives them the number one seed and the accompanying bye. That is also true if they lose and the Saints and Seahawks lose as well. If the Pack and the Saints lose and Seattle wins, then the Seahawks and Packers end with identical 12-4 records and Seattle claims the first seed by virtue of their record against common opponents – the Seahawks would finish 5-0 against those teams, while Green Bay – with an earlier loss to Minnesota – would only be 4-1.

If the tie is between Green Bay and New Orleans, the Packers hold that tie-breaker due to a head-to-head victory over the Saints. But the Saints gain the top seed if all three teams tie at 12-4, because they will finish 10-2 in the conference, while the other two will end 9-3.

All three teams end the season against tough but beatable division opponents. Seattle’s might be the toughest, as they play San Francisco. The 49ers (6-9) are a wounded but still dangerous club – and one that has had success against the Seahawks. New Orleans’ path may be the softest – they face Carolina. Very hard to see the Saints losing this one.

The most interesting of these matchups is Green Bay’s. The Packers end their season against Chicago – a team that is also still in contention. After a six-game losing streak brought them to the brink of elimination, the Bears – behind a revived Mitchell Trubisky – have won three straight – and they have scored at least 30 points in four straight games. This has put Chicago in a position to claim a spot with a win.

The reservations I have with the Bears are two-fold. First, their resurgence – as impressive as it has been – has all come at the expense of struggling teams (Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville). Beating these guys is a far cry from beating the Packers.

Secondly, for Chicago, they will be getting the Packers’ best effort on Sunday. Unlike the Steelers and the Chiefs, there will be no “rest” mode for Green Bay. The Pack desperately wants that top seed. They want the bye week that comes with it, and they want just as much to have the rest of the NFC come through Lambeau to get to the Super Bowl.

So, as I contemplate this contest, I ask myself, can the Bears handle Green Bay’s best game? Until they prove me wrong, that answer is no. It should be noted here that a loss won’t necessarily knock Chicago (who will finish 8-8 if that happens) out of the playoffs.

For all the scenarios involved, the most likely outcomes will keep the top four teams the same and in the same order: Green Bay (13-3); New Orleans (12-4); Seattle (12-4) and Washington (7-9 *if Alex Smith starts, otherwise this could be Dallas). The conference record that would put the Saints ahead if all three first-place teams finished tied is the factor that keeps them ahead of Seattle if both teams either win or lose.

Tampa Bay currently sits in the fifth slot with a 10-5 record. They finish up against Atlanta. I have this unshakable feeling that Atlanta will rise up and upset the Buccaneers. I wrote a little about this yesterday, how this game means more to the Falcon franchise than it does to the Bucs.

Atlanta won’t be able to knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs, but they can knock them down a peg, depending on what happens elsewhere.

If I’m wrong, here, and Tampa Bay wins, then their result is simple. They finish as the five seed regardless of anything that happens anywhere else, and will journey into Washington or Dallas. Because this hunch is strong, I’m going to proceed with the rest of this assuming that Tampa will fall to 10-6 leaving their final seeding – along with the fate of the Bears – to ride on the Ram-Cardinal game.

Arizona at Los Angeles (Rams) becomes the watershed game of the bottom four NFC playoff hopefuls. The Rams are 9-6 with a previous victory over the Cardinals. Arizona is 8-7.

A Los Angeles victory will vault them into the fifth seed (they have an earlier victory against Tampa Bay), and drop Tampa Bay to sixth. It will also drop Arizona (now at 8-8) into a tie with Chicago for that final spot.

In this scenario, the Bears get the tie-breaker by virtue of a better record against common opponents. They will finish 3-2 in those games (wins against Detroit, the Giants and Carolina with losses to the Rams and Detroit), while Arizona will finish 1-4 against those opponents (their win over the Giants offset by losses to Detroit, Carolina and the Rams twice).

In this scenario, the WildCard round will give us Chicago at New Orleans, Tampa Bay at Seattle, and the Rams at Washington/Dallas.

If Arizona wins this pivotal game, then both they and the Rams finish 9-7, and both make the playoffs. Tampa Bay retains its fifth seed, and Chicago is out. Arizona (with the better division record) would slip ahead of the Rams into the sixth seed, and LA would finish seventh.

Under this scenario, WildCard Weekend would give us the Rams at New Orleans, Arizona at Seattle, and Tampa Bay at Washington/Dallas.

Which of these scenarios is the most likely is a difficult question to answer, as both starting quarterbacks are faced with health issues. The Rams Jared Goff – who broke his thumb last week against Seattle – has already been ruled out of the game, and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has a lower leg injury that had him questionable earlier in the week. The latest I understand about the situation is that Kyler has been upgraded to probable, but the seriousness of the situation cannot be overstated.

So much of Murray’s game is his ability to move. If he is at all limited in his ability to scoot outside of the pocket, then Kyler will be a liability against an elite Ram defense.

As LA has more injury/COVID issues than just their quarterback (they will also be down their top two running backs and their top receiver and some key defensive people) – along with the fact that they will be starting, in John Wolford, a man who has never thrown an NFL pass – I am going to lean toward Arizona in this one.

The only major re-write of this script that is reasonably likely would be for the Bears to find a way to get past Green Bay. If that should happen – and if Arizona should win – that would leave the Bears and the Cardinals with identical 9-7 records. (The Rams wouldn’t enter into the initial tie-breakers because they would be the third-place club.) Now it would be the Bears as the sixth seed (Tampa Bay would still be fifth), dropping Arizona to seventh, and now it’s the Rams who are waiting for next year

WildCard Weekend under this scenario is New Orleans with the bye, Arizona at Seattle, Chicago back in Green Bay for the second week in a row, and Tampa Bay at Washington/Dallas.

If we get the Bears and the Rams winning their final games, the final NFC seeding would be: 1 – New Orleans; 2 – Seattle; 3 – Green Bay; 4 – Washington/Dallas; 5 – Los Angeles; 6 – Tampa Bay; and 7 – Chicago. Arizona is the odd man out, here. The Wildcard schedule here would be Chicago at Seattle, Tampa Bay at Green Bay, and the Rams at Washington/Dallas.

Note please that for all of the whinging about the inclusion of an NFC East team in the playoffs, the presence of either Washington or Dallas won’t deny a spot to any really worthy competitor. The most likely loser in these scenarios would be an 8-8 team (either Chicago or Arizona) who would only have a marginally better claim over either East competitor (which will likely bring a 7-9 record into the playoffs).

The greatest injustice that the playoff structure is capable of would be the awarding of a playoff spot to a 6-10 NY Giants team, while denying one to a 9-7 Rams squad – and this would be the least likely scenario.

My “simplified” version of the playoff picture (which still runs to nearly 2800 words) doesn’t take into account the major upsets that could take place (Cincinnati beating Baltimore, for instance), so there is a remote possibility that these scenarios I’ve painted will be totally upended. But these are the most likely ways that all of this plays out over the season’s last week, with a look at the most likely first round pairings.

And once the playoffs start, the chaos begins in earnest.