Archives for June 2021

For seven innings on Saturday afternoon, all of the vultures circling above the down-trodden Cardinals vanished.  For seven innings they swung the bats lustily.  While long-time ace Adam Wainwright was dominating the Atlanta lineup, the beleaguered St Louis offense bashed out 12 hits (including 3 doubles and 2 home runs) while parading 9 runners across the plate.  The first game of a double-header necessitated by the rainout of the Saturday game felt like a watershed moment as the everywhere-slumping lineup was able to exhale, relax, and just hit the ball.  That 9-1 win (box score) was – it seemed – just what the doctor ordered.

And then they played the night-cap.

With two out in the top of the sixth in that second game, Cardinal first-baseman Paul Goldschmidt cued a grounder off the end of his bat that dribbled past the second-base bag just slightly to the right-field side of the base.  Second baseman Ozzie Albies (who had lined up to the shortstop side of second base) came scurrying around the base to scoop up the dribbler.

Not anticipating the play, though, was second base umpire John Libka, who didn’t back away from the grounder and found himself directly between Albies and first base when the Atlanta fielder picked up the ball.  Libka quickly ducked, trying not to affect the play – but to no avail.  The combination of the slowly hit ball, Goldschmidt running at top speed, and Albies having to adjust his throw over the umpire allowed Paul to beat the play at first.

It was the first Cardinal hit of the game.  There would be only one more.

Starter Drew Smyly thus became the fourth pitcher this season (and the second in the series) to take a no-hitter against the Cards into at least the sixth inning (Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff and the White Sox’ Lance Lynn preceded Charlie Morton earlier in this season).

Smyly also helped author the third shutout of the Cardinal offense in the last 8 games.  For the second time in the double-header, Cardinal pitching held Atlanta to just one run.  This time, though, that run spelled defeat (box score).

The St Louis Cardinals spent a long weekend (four games) in Atlanta, and their manager (Mike Shildt) and President of Baseball Operations (John Mozeliak) spent the entire time answering questions about the missing offense.  The cascade of numbers that are starting to attach themselves to this struggling unit invite the worst in the alarmists that follow (or cover) the team.  Here are just a few.

Even with the outburst in game three, the Cards still finished the series hitting .179, slugging just .268 and scoring 2.5 runs per game.  Toss out that anomalous third game, and St Louis managed to score just one run over the other 25 innings of the series.  They were held to 3 hits, 3 hits and 2 hits, going 8 for 80 (.100) over the course of the rest of the series, with only one extra-base hit.

A tepid June has left them last in the league in runs scored this month with 54 (3.00 per game) which places them 13 runs behind the next worst team – the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.  Their .283 team on base percentage this month pulls their season on base percentage (after 72 games) to .299 while their season-long scoring average has dropped below 4 per game (3.99).

Over the last nine games (from the second game of the most recent Cub series) St Louis has scored a total of 19 runs (9 of those coming in Sunday’s first game), with a .188/.255/.280 batting line.  Again, subtracting the outlier, and over the other 8 games they have managed a total of 10 runs (no more than four in any one game) while they have been “hitting” .162/.232/.227.

I could probably go on, but you get the gist.

Anyway, the upshot is that the sky is officially falling in Cardinal Nation, which turns its lonely eyes to Shildt and Mozeliak to ask in unison, “What are you doing about this?”

In times like this, “patience” is a tough mantra to sell.  But the fact of the matter is that few real options present themselves.  Help could certainly come from the outside, but the market is still probably a month away from defining itself.  And even if Mo can find some useful parts in the market, he won’t be able to re-make the team.  For better or for worse, the improvement will come – if it comes – from the team that we already have.  The team that the organization liked (when it was healthy) coming out of camp.

One of the immutable baseball laws is that your team is never as good as it looks when it’s winning, or as bad as it looks when it’s losing.  Put simply, this team isn’t this bad.  I grant that this can be hard to believe.  In losing 18 of their last 29 games, the Cards have been behind by at least 5 runs in 10 of the 18 losses.  For the better part of a month, this team has basically been bending over, grabbing its collective ankles and repeating “Thank you sir, may I have another,” as the rest of the league has been pretty much abusing them.

Nonetheless, the question about this team really isn’t “Are they this bad.”  The answer to that question is clearly “no.”  Less clear is the answer to the question “How bad are they?”

While the offense has a few corner pieces that are established major league hitters, much of the fortunes of this club are dependent on the bats less established – or not established at all.  Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill – the season comes down to these guys.  They will either hit and we’ll win, or they won’t, and we won’t.  It just isn’t more complex than that.  And there is a measure of relief in that.

One way or another, management is going to have to know what we have in these guys.  Are they pieces to build around?  Or will we need to look in other directions?  The next 90 games will tell.

Goldschmidt

One of the positives to come out of the series is more progress from Paul Goldschmidt.  Paul was 5 for 13 (.385) in the series with a home run and 5 runs batted in (and two no hitters broken up).  Goldy is hitting .306 (19-for-62) in June with a double, a triple and a team leading 4 home runs.  Paul is slugging .548 for the month.

Three times in the series, Goldschmidt came to the plate with a runner at third and less than two outs.  He delivered the run every time.  Throughout the season, Paul has been the team’s best at getting this done, plating 12 of the 20 such opportunities presented him (60%).

O’Neill

Tyler hit a bit of a speed bump in Atlanta.  Coming into the series, O’Neill had hit safely in 22 of his previous 27 games.  But he left Atlanta just 1 for 10 with 6 strikeouts.

Twenty-nine Cardinals struck out during the four games in Atlanta, but only 3 of those were called third strikes – all of those belonging to O’Neill, who has the annoying habit of trusting umpires to call close pitches as balls regardless of how erratic their strike zones have been.  Tyler leads the team in being called out on strikes with 18.  At some point, he’s going to have to realize how inconsistent these umpires are, right?

The irony underneath this, is that any time other than with two strikes on him, Tyler is one of the team’s most consistently aggressive hitters.  He swung at 53.2% of the pitches thrown to him in Atlanta (33 of 62), and has chased after 53% of the pitches sent his way this season (the team average is 47.9% swung at).

While his swing looks more compact to me this year, Tyler is still missing with the highest percent of swings of anyone on the team.  He missed on 12 of his 33 swings in Atlanta (36.4%), and for the season he leads the team, missing on 37% of his swings.

Sosa

His extended stay in the starting lineup may be starting to catch up with Edmundo Sosa.  He is 2 for 15 (.133) over his last 5 games.  It has been 5 games since his last run batted in, 11 games since his last walk and run scored, and 13 games since his last extra-base hit.  Edmundo’s batting line for the month of June now sits at .204/.246/.259.

Sosa is one of the hitters who seems to be pressing most at the plate.  In Atlanta, he swung at 25 of the 36 pitches thrown to him – an overly aggressive 69.4%.  This month, Edmundo is hacking at 56.9% of the pitches thrown to him – the highest percentage on the team.

Sosa’s 3.48 pitches seen per plate appearance is the lowest on the team.

DeJong

Paul DeJong laced a home run in his second game back from the injured list.  He has now been back for ten games, and that was pretty much the highlight.  Paul is 3 for 32 (.094) since his return – including 1 for 13 against the Braves.

Martinez

In his start before his Friday start in Atlanta, Carlos Martinez delivered seven impressive innings in a tough-luck loss.  To say he couldn’t build on that in Atlanta would be an understatement.  Carlos lasted three innings, allowing 8 runs on 8 hits including 2 home runs.  It was the third time in four June starts that Carlos was pushed around.

For the month, now, Martinez has lasted just 14.2 innings over 4 starts, being mauled for 25 runs on 26 hits and 10 walks.  His June ERA sits at 15.34, with an accompanying .377 batting average against.

I mentioned above some hitters who will determine the Cardinal fate this year.  There are a few pitchers in that category as well, with Carlos prominent among them.  For a lot of teams, Martinez would have just pitched his way out of the rotation.  But in St Louis this year, the Cards don’t really have any healthy options ready to take his place.  So Martinez will get opportunities.

This is good news for Carlos, because starting is very important to him.  Hopefully, he can also make that good news for the Cardinals.

Waino

Trending in the other direction is Wainwright.  With Sunday’s complete game (albeit of only seven innings), Adam has thrown quality starts in all four of his June games.  He is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a .189 batting average against this month.

Recent Scoring Changes (for those of you scoring at home)

More bad news for Martinez.  I referenced his strong start against the Cubs on June 13.  In the third inning of that game, he had Eric Sogard at third with two outs, and looked like he had retired Joc Pederson on a dribbler to shortstop Paul DeJong – who had shifted over to the first base side of second.  It appeared to me to be a routine play that DeJong booted for an error.  That, at least, is how it was ruled at the time.  Surprisingly, that has been reversed, and Pederson has been awarded a hit on that play.  It also makes both runs scored that inning earned on Martinez’ ledger.

NoteBook

Friday’s crowd of 40,377 was the first time the Cards have played in front of 40,000 since the playoffs of 2019.

When they trailed by eight runs going into the seventh inning of the Friday game, it was their largest deficit after six innings since June 2.  Then, on Sunday, they won the first game by 8 runs – their largest margin of victory since April 13.

Nolan Arenado’s two-run home run in the first Sunday game proved to be the game-winning hit.  Arenado, Goldschmidt and Yadier Molina are all tied for the team lead with 8.

The Sunday games (both being seven inning) were the two fastest played by the Cards so far this year, at 2:16 and 1:58 respectively.  The average time of the four games (2:29.8) was also the quickest for a series so far this season.

The Cards are now 3-5-2 in ten series against teams that had lost their previous series. 

My Designated Hitter Rant

Every year now, baseball purists in the National League are continuously threatened with the permanent infliction of the designated hitter.  Last year, I responded with an extensive rant against the DH.  While trying to update that document, I managed to delete it.  So, I have re-written it here.  The hope is to set forth a reasonable argument for keeping the DH far, far away from National League parks.  I encourage you to read it and pass it along to other like-minded fans of this great old game.

Perhaps the game’s most telling pitch came in the top of the fourth inning.  The game at that point was still scoreless, and, in fact neither team had a hit to that point.

With two outs, Nolan Arenado came to the plate, and quickly found himself ahead in the count 3-0.  Atlanta’s pitcher that evening was Charlie Morton, who would work through three complete turns of the Cardinal lineup in mostly dominant fashion (he would, in fact, carry a no-hitter into the seventh inning).  But he would be no stranger on this night to long counts.  He would go to three-ball counts to 7 of the 27 batters he would face.  Here in the fourth inning, Morton had already fallen behind 3-0 on two batters.  Three other batters would start their at bat ahead 2-0 before getting their first strike from Morton.

But while advantageous counts against Charlie weren’t all that uncommon, success against the two-time All Star who finished third in the Cy Young Award voting in 2019 continued elusive.  Of the five who started their at bat getting ahead in the count by at least 2-0, only 1 managed a hit.

The principle reason that the St Louis hitters experienced continued frustration in what were prime opportunities against Morton was that Charlie never gave in to them.  All across baseball, that is the one universal trait exhibited by all of the game’s elite pitchers.  Whatever the count, they don’t cave to the hitter.  In his outing against St Louis, Morton confidently flung curves, cutters and changeups at the Cardinal hitters – even when behind in the count.  But he threw even more fastballs in those situations, but always throwing them to the corners of the strike zone.  He just never gave in to the hitter in those situations.

Except this one time – on the 3-0 pitch to Arenado.  Perhaps he assumed that Nolan wouldn’t be swinging on 3-0?  Whether anticipated or not, Arenado got that “hit-me-if-you-can” fastball at 94.8 miles-per-hour right down the heart of the plate.  Arenado took his Sunday swing – and came up empty.

That would be the lone moment of grace for Nolan and for the Cardinals.  Arenado would foul off the next two pitches before striking out on another fastball – this one a 95.6 mph missile at the upper outside edge of the zone.

It was a helplessness felt all through the lineup.

Leading off the game, Tommy Edman watched Morton miss with three straight fastballs.  His fourth was a called strike, and then he retired Tommy on a 96 mph fastball at the bottom of the zone that Edman looped easily to center-fielder Guillermo Heredia.

After falling behind Tyler O’Neill in the fifth inning, Charlie threw a cutter for a strike and a curve in the dirt that Tyler chased to quickly even the count.  Two pitches later, Tyler lined the third straight curve thrown to him right at Heredia.

All of the long counts did take a toll on Morton.  He threw first-pitch balls to three of the four hitters he faced in the seventh.  After falling behind Dylan Carlson 2-0, he fired a nasty fastball (at 95.4) down and in on the border of the zone that Dylan fouled off.  He then evened the count with 96 mph heat just in under Carlson’s hands – setting him up for a final, 3-2 fastball just outside that Dylan skied easily in the direction of left-fielder Abraham Almonte.

It wasn’t until the eighth inning, after falling behind Matt Carpenter 2-0, that Charlie – on his 105^th pitch of the evening – strayed upstairs with a 2-1 fastball that Matt knuckled into right for a single.

Charlie would hang in there for 7 more pitches, facing two more batters before a bloop single to left off the bat of Jose Rondon chased him from the game.  He left two runners on base with a 4-0 lead and two outs in the eighth.

That would be the final (box score), as St Louis had no better luck against the Atlanta bullpen than they did against Morton.

It was a welcomed breakthrough for an under-achieving Atlanta team that is still looking up at the .500 mark (they are 31-35) in mid-June.

For the Cardinals, it is a continuation of a troubling team slump.  Shut out, now, for the second time in 5 games, St Louis has managed just 9 runs over its last 6 games.  It’s a tumble that has seen them hit just .180 (32 for 178) and slug just .258.  They have just 8 extra base hits over those 6 games.  Their runs per game for the month of June has fallen to a humbling 2.93.

Among the head-shaking numbers that accompany this offensive brown-out is a sudden inability to hit when ahead in the count.  Across all of the National League, batters that are ahead in the count are slashing .276/.476/.499/.975.  Over their last six games, St Louis is an amazing 5 for 47 (all singles) when hitting ahead in the count – a .106 batting average.

As it was last night, it’s been a combination of pitchers executing excellent pitches when behind in the count, and Cardinal batters coming up just late when they don’t.

Carlson

Carlson – who flew out on that 3-2 pitch in the seventh – is one of several Cardinals who have struggled lately when ahead in the count.  In the month of June, Dylan is 4 for 21 (.190) when hitting ahead in the count.

Arenado

Sustaining offense is much more difficult when your clean-up hitter struggles – and Nolan Arenado is scuffling as much as you are ever likely to see him.  In his first at bat of the second Cub game, he hit a home run off of Kyle Hendricks.  He is 0-for-17 since then.  After a hot start to the month, Nolan is hitting just .231 (12 for 52) in June.

Molina

His big hit Wednesday night against Miami notwithstanding, June has been a struggling month for Yadier Molina.  Hitless in three at bats last night, Yadi is just 2 for 20 (.100) over the last 6 games, and hitting .146 (6 for 41) over his last 13 games.  Molina hasn’t had an extra-base hit in 14 games, and is hitting .162 (6 for 37) in 12 games in June.

Molina grounded to third on a 2-1 pitch in the eighth inning.  Having a fine year overall, Molina has struggled throughout when ahead in the count.  He is 0 for 12 this month when he has the pitcher at a disadvantage.  For the season, in at bats when he is ahead in the count, Yadi is 6 for 38 (.158) with no extra-base hits.

Ponce de Leon

In a season where his team desperately needs him to step up, Daniel Ponce de Leon continues to scuffle.  Remembering that Daniel began the year in the rotation, Ponce de Leon may be deep in the running for the most disappointing of all the 2021 Cardinals so far.  Last night, Daniel allowed an inherited runner to score, and allowed another run of his own – all in just 7 batters faced.  Daniel has now allowed runs in 6 of his last 9 appearances, yielding a total of 9 runs (8 earned) in just 11 innings (a 6.55 ERA).  Of the 14 hits he’s given up in those innings, 8 have gone for extra-bases (6 doubles and 2 home runs).  The last 53 batters to face him are hitting a lusty .318 with a .519 slugging percentage.

NoteBook

In just three inning on Thursday evening, Atlanta scored more runs (4) than Miami scored (3) in their entire three game series against the Cards.

My Designated Hitter Rant

Every year now, baseball purists in the National League are continuously threatened with the permanent infliction of the designated hitter.  Last year, I responded with an extensive rant against the DH.  While trying to update that document, I managed to delete it.  So, I have re-written it here.  The hope is to set forth a reasonable argument for keeping the DH far, far away from National League parks.  I encourage you to read it and pass it along to other like-minded fans of this great old game.

Miami manager Don Mattingly passed on the opportunity to hit for starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara in the top of the seventh inning.  Well, there was no one on base, two outs and Sandy was throwing an excellent ballgame (the game was actually still scoreless there in the seventh).  So there was little urgency in hitting for him there.

When Alcantara walked off the mound at the conclusion of the eighth inning, the score was still 0-0.  Perhaps Mattingly intended the eighth to be his final inning.  But it took Alcantara just 10 pitches to dispatch the Cards in the eighth, and he sat at just 93 pitches for the game.  Perhaps that convinced Don to send him back out for the ninth?

At any rate, still working a scoreless tie, there was ex-Cardinal farmhand Sandy Alcantara taking the mound for the bottom of the ninth.  Through the first 28 batters he had faced that afternoon, only six had reached base legitimately (5 singles – 3 of the infield variety – and one hit batsman).  Another had reached on a botched rundown, in which the Marlins didn’t get anyone out.  Sandy used a couple of double-play balls and a caught stealing to keep St Louis off the scoreboard.

The 21 Cardinals that had actually put the ball in play were doing so with an average exit velocity of just 78.01 mph.  Sandy had been decidedly dominant so far this afternoon.

The ninth, however, would prove his undoing.  An error – Miami’s third of the game – and Sandy’s only walk of the afternoon provided Yadier Molina St Louis’ thirteenth at bat of the game with a runner on base – it’s fifth with at least one runner in scoring position.  To that point, St Louis was 0-for-12 and 0-for-4 respectively in those circumstances.  On Sandy’s 108^th pitch, Yadi got a high slider that he cuffed down the third-base line for the hit that brought home the game’s only run, and sent the Cards home with their second straight walk-off win against Miami (box score).

They have been a couple of exciting games, but even as the Cards squeezed their way past the Marlins, you can’t watch this team without feeling that their offense is dying on the vine.  When Yadi’s grounder found its way past Deven Marrero at third, it drove home just the ninth run for the Cards over their last 5 games.  They are hitting just .195 over those contests, with just 8 extra base hits.  For the month of June (in which they have lost 9 of the 14 games) they are hitting .224 as a team, scoring 3.14 runs per game.

As with yesterday, the recent hang-up is getting anything done once a runner reaches base.

In approaching this subject, I don’t want to give the impression that St Louis has been at all proficient in getting runners on base.  Their team on base percentage with the bases empty this month is but .286 – the second worst figure in the league.  But once they do manage to put a runner on, the offense has come to an almost full stop.

They are now just 9 for their last 57 (.158) with a runner on base, the 9 hits being 7 singles (one a bunt hit) and 2 doubles – a .193 slugging percentage.

It must be a little disheartening to be a Cardinal starter at the moment.  St Louis’ own starter – Johan Oviedo – pitched seven very effective innings of his own.  But lately seven shutout innings is only good for a no-decision.

Carlson

After struggling through a bit of a funk, Dylan Carlson looks like he’s beginning to emerge again.  He had two hits last night, and generally hit the ball harder than he has recently.  Dylan has now hit safely in four straight games, hitting .400 (6 for 15) over that span.

Both of Dylan’s hits came in his three at bats with no one on base.  Over these last handful of games, Carlson is hitting .462 (6 for 13) with the bases empty.

DeJong

His injury healed, Paul DeJong is back in the starting lineup.  Now if he would only start to hit a little, it would be a great relief.  Picking up where he left off before his injury, DeJong is 2 for 19 (.105) since his return.

Oviedo

In tossing the first quality start of his young career, Johan Oviedo had ample opportunity to collapse.  Before his seven innings would end, Johan would face 6 batters with two runners on base.  He would retire all 6 – getting one to hit into a double-play.

Even in games that he has struggled in, Johan has been very tough when pitching with multiple runners on base.  Thus far he has pitched to 28 batters in this situation.  Those batters are just 3 for 25 (.120), all singles, with 2 walks (1 intentional), 1 sacrifice fly, 5 strikeouts and 4 ground-ball double-plays.

Johan still has some development to do, but there is an innate toughness to this kid that you have to truly appreciate.

Miller

Another encouraging sign from the bullpen has been the re-emergence of Andrew Miller.  Miller – who retired two of the three he faced yesterday hasn’t been scored on yet in 6.1 innings since his return from the injured list.

NoteBook

Before yesterday, the Cards had trailed at some point in 12 straight games.

Cardinal pitching allowed just 3 runs to Miami over the three games.  It’s the second time they’ve done that this season.  The other time was the first Miami series.  The Marlins have scored 6 runs in 6 games against the Cards this season.

Another former Cardinal – Magneuris Sierra – slapped a double over center-fielder Carlson’s head in the second inning of the first game of the series.  It would be Miami’s only extra-base hit in the three games.

The three games averaged just 2:52, making this the quickest series of the season by average time.  The previous quickest were three games against Cincinnati April 23-25.  Those games averaged 2:52.3.

With the 24,682 that showed up last night, St Louis’ total attendance (home and road) finally climbed over the one million mark.  Total attendance now stands at 1,005,809.

Oviedo’s effort gives the Cards four consecutive quality starts for the second time this year.  They previously achieved this from April 24-27.

Ryan Helsley earned credit for the win with 1.1 scoreless inning at the end, stranding Miller’s baserunner along the way.  Ryan has now stranded 14 of 15 inherited baserunners.

One day after Paul Goldschmidt took over the team lead in game-winning hits, Molina tied him.  Both now have 8 for the season, one more than Nolan Arenado, who is third.

My Designated Hitter Rant

Every year now, baseball purists in the National League are continuously threatened with the permanent infliction of the designated hitter.  Last year, I responded with an extensive rant against the DH.  While trying to update that document, I managed to delete it.  So, I have re-written it here.  The hope is to set forth a reasonable argument for keeping the DH far, far away from National League parks.  I encourage you to read it and pass it along to other like-minded fans of this great old game.