For a few days this past off-season – as I’m sure you will remember – Tom Brady was officially retired. For about a week, as I recall it, the legacy of the single-most decorated player in NFL history was complete. The only thing that now remained was to petition the Hall of Fame in Canton to waive the five-year incubation period, and just go ahead and enshrine Mr. Brady.
But, shortly after his announced retirement, Brady – who would turn 45 during training camp – decided that he wasn’t done yet, and re-upped for one more campaign (at least). Like so many defensive backs over the last two decades, Tom looked us off and threw the ball where we weren’t expecting it to go.
For much of the season, this has looked like a poor decision. The Buccaneers seemed to plumet out of playoff contention through the early weeks of the season as they lost five of six at one stretch. Throughout most of this, it was hard to directly blame Brady. He had very few “bad games.” In fact, during the six-game swoon, Tom’s passer rating was a very solid 94.5, as he completed 67.4% of his passes with a 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
But still the team was losing, the offense wasn’t scoring (17.8 points per game), and Brady just wasn’t Brady. He had devolved into a kind of system quarterback. He wasn’t necessarily losing games, but he wasn’t doing the Brady-like things of the past to win games. In spite of the fact that he was throwing 40 and 50 times a game, Tampa Bay had become a boring team – and Tom had become something of a boring quarterback. Not the encore to his career that anyone was hoping for.
At the same time, another storied team – the Green Bay Packers – led by another storied quarterback – Aaron Rodgers – was also floundering. Like Brady, Rodgers wasn’t doing terribly (he took an 89.0 passer rating into last week’s game against Dallas), but that old magic seemed to be gone – from Aaron as well as from the Packers. It began to be a ubiquitous whisper around the league. The league has passed these poor old boys by. Best, probably, for them to step aside and make room for the next generation of young, athletic signal callers.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Tom’s funeral. He stopped off in Munich last Sunday morning (our time) to play in the first-ever NFL game in Germany. The team they were to play (the Seattle Seahawks) was trending in the exact opposite direction. Behind the surprising emergence of career back-up Geno Smith, the Hawks were riding a four-game winning streak that surged them to the top of their division. Completing a league-best 73.1% of his passes, and carrying the league’s third-best passer rating (107.2), Geno had led Seattle to the league’s fourth-most points scored. It was supposed that the Bucs’ offense would need to rouse itself if they were going to keep up with the prolific Seattle offense.
As it turns out, they would. Just not in the way that everyone expected. More on that later.
First, Brady
For his part in the 21-16 victory (gamebook) (summary), Brady turned in a performance typical of his prime. Tom completed 22 of 29 passes (75.9%) for 258 yards (8.90 per pass and 11.73 per completion). His one interception (just his second of the season) was offset by two touchdown passes (the 635th and 636th of his career, but whose counting). His rating on this day was a satisfying 111.0.
What made the difference? Well, I’ll say play-calling. The 29 passes thrown by Brady represent the second fewest that he’s thrown all season – second to the 27 he threw in the season-opening win against Dallas.
That season-opening win against the Cowboys was unusual as it featured a surprisingly dominant Tampa Bay running game. During the Brady tenure, the Bucs haven’t been known much for running the ball. In 2021, they finished next to last in rushing attempts and twenty-sixth in rushing yards. You’ll forgive the Cowboys if they were unprepared for the 33 rushes for 152 yards that the Bucs unleashed on them. No one would have seen that coming.
After the game, new head coach Todd Bowles notified the league that they will see more of this, as he committed to a more balanced approach than Tampa Bay had employed the year before. That commitment lasted one more week. In their Week Two win against New Orleans, they ran the ball 30 more times, but earned just 72 yards. And that was that. In Week Three they ran just 14 times while Brady put the ball in the air 42 times. Tampa lost that game (14-12 to Green Bay), and that would be the pattern for the next five weeks. Very few runs (17.2 per game), lots of throws (47.4 per game), not a lot of points (19 per game) and lots of losses (four of the five games in the “L” column). Most of those trends held through the Week Nine game against the Rams. Few runs (20), lots of throws (58) and few points (16). The difference here was that the defense held LA to 13 points, and Tampa Bay secured a much-needed win – albeit with minimal contribution from Brady’s side of the ball.
And then, with no warning, last Sunday in Germany the running game re-appeared. In back-to-back losses in Week Three (to Green Bay) and Week Four (to Kansas City), Tampa had run the ball a total of 20 times. Against the Seahawks in Munich, the Bucs ran 24 times – in the first half alone.
They added 20 more running plays in the second half, finishing with 44 rushes – astonishing from the team that entered the game last in the NFL in rushing attempts (183). As with the Cowboys, the season-high 161 ground yards must have taken the Seahawks by surprise. The 21 points scored at the end of the game aren’t record-setting, but the ground-and-pound offense ate more than 18 minutes off the clock in each half, and ended up dominating time of possession, 36:55 to 23:05. Seattle ran only 50 offensive plays – against 74 run by Tampa Bay. Against the team that ranked fourth in the NFL in sacking quarterbacks (the Hawks came into the game with 27), Brady wasn’t dropped, and was rarely bothered by the rush – another benefit brought on by a healthy dose of the running game.
These were lessons that, apparently, had to be re-learned from the Bruce Arians era. Through the early parts of the Super Bowl winning season, the Tampa Bay offense struggled mightily – with Bruce quick to pass the blame to Brady. The truth was, though, that the Bucs supported Tom with no running game and little pass protection. When that team finally won the Super Bowl, they did so with a balanced attack and with a willingness to keep people (even Rob Gronkowski) in to pass block. (Here, I detail the adjustments in Tampa’s offense that year.) Somehow, the lessons learned from that season slipped through the cracks. For what it’s worth, the Bucs look like they could run against most defenses – if they decide that they really are committed to the running game.
It can’t be too astonishing to long-time football watchers to see Tom’s performance pick up with better balance and solid pass protection. Will this translate to this Sunday’s game against Cleveland – and for the rest of the games this season – is the question.
Meanwhile
Some hours after Brady won in Munich, Rodgers pulled off an overtime win against the then 6-2 Cowboys. Aaron had a 146.7 passer rating as he threw the ball just 20 times against Dallas. The Packers racked up 207 rushing yards on 39 attempts. The connection between the run/pass balance and the performances of these two great veteran quarterbacks should be too obvious to be missed. Even if you have one of the All-Time great throwers, the rules that govern offensive success still apply.
A Note on the Buc Defense
While the Tampa Bay offense may or may not be getting its act cleaned up, the Tampa Bay defense has been front-and-center in the Bucs last two wins. Not just coincidentally, Tampa’s defensive rise corresponds to the return of Akiem Hicks – the one-time great Chicago defensive lineman.
Signed in the offseason, Akiem played in the season’s first two games – both wins – and them missed the next six with a foot injury (five of those losses). He was back to play 58% of the snaps against the Rams (a Tampa Bay win), and 63% of the snaps last Sunday. During his absence, opponents averaged 148 rushing yards per game, and 4.9 yards per carry against the once-storied Tampa Bay run defense.
There were only 68 rush yards allowed to the Rams in Week Nine, and then last Sunday the Seahawks, whose offensive foundation is the running attack, finished with just 39 yards on the ground.
The return of Hicks certainly turns this into a formidable run defense. With Akiem and Vita Vea (another storied run stuffer) clogging up the middle – there is little yardage to be found up there. At the same time, the speed of linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David make it a challenge to get around the edges against them. One of the under-appreciated aspects of the run defense is how quick and willing the secondary players are to involve themselves in the run. In fact, last Sunday a couple of the best defensive plays against the run were turned in by members of the secondary.
With 7:11 left in the first half, Seattle tried to get feature back Kenneth Walker around the right end. But cornerback Carlton Davis stacked up the play when he held firm against the attempted block of tight-end Colby Parkinson. Then, early in the second half (13:36 remaining), the Hawks executed what looked to be a perfect run off of left tackle. Center Austin Blythe and left guard Damien Lewis wedged Vea inside, while wide receiver D.K. Metcalf – who doesn’t get enough credit for his ability as a blocker – hunted up safety Mike Edwards and drove him inside as well. The outside of the running lane was established by left tackle Charles Cross, who rode linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to the outside and out of the play.
Walker soared through the line untouched, but earned only a yard before cornerback Jamel Dean appeared out of nowhere to wrap him up.
I would like to pull out a few more examples, but the truth is that there weren’t that many opportunities. The run-first Seahawks gave up on their running game surprisingly easy. They finished with just 14 runs – only 10 by Walker.
Smith
Throughout the first half, this played right into Tampa Bay’s plans. Their hope was to take away the run, make them one-dimensional, and force Geno to beat them. For 30 minutes, this disoriented the Seattle offense. They went into the locker with 3 first downs, 57 total yards, and an 0-for-5 mark in third downs (through their first 9 games, their 45.8% third-down conversion rate was the fifth-best in football). They trailed 14-0 at the half.
During the intermission, though, the Seahawks decided that if the Bucs wanted Smith, then they were going to get Smith. Completely abandoning the run, Seattle put the ball in Geno’s hands.
Calling a series of quick, short passes designed to let Smith make quick decisions and get the ball out of his hands, the Seattle offense changed the momentum of the game in the second half, and nearly pulled off a comeback. Second-half Geno completed 17 of 23 passes (73.9%) for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns (with no interceptions) – numbers that equate to an impressive 130.0 passer rating.
Whether at 32 Geno is old enough to be admitted into the “old quarterbacks club,” his remarkable story continues. From 2014, the last time he was considered a “starting quarterback” till this season, Geno had made all of 5 starts. Now he rates among the top throwers in the league.
And during the second half last Sunday, he did it against a top defense and without his running game.