Archives for December 2022

These Cats Have Nine Lives

The Sunday schedule of Week Eight began in venerable Wembly Stadium in London – the twenty-fourth NFL game hosted there. This time, though, the venue would seem to be the only selling point for this matchup between the 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 2-5 Denver Broncos.

It would turn out to be another struggling outing for second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who finished his afternoon completing just 18 of his 31 passes for only 133 yards, his touchdown pass more than off-set by his two interceptions. After a struggle as a rookie quarterback in the circus atmosphere of the 2021 Jaguars, Trevor started every game of the 3-14 season, tossing 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions, and finishing with a 71.9 passer rating.

The 2022 version of the team got a clean slate with the arrival of new head coach Doug Pederson, and the improvement seemed to start immediately. After losing a tight game in Washington, the young Jags ripped through Indianapolis (24-0) and the Chargers (38-10) to catch some early attention.

Things quickly fell apart from there, though, for both Lawrence and the team. Over the next five games (culminating with the game against Denver), Trevor looked like a re-cycled version of his rookie season. He completed just 57.8% of his passes (96 of 166) and averaged just 213.6 yards per game. He threw 4 touchdowns in the five games, while tossing 5 interceptions. His passer rating regressed to 72.6.

As far as the team, the first four of those games ended in losses – all by one score. The Week Eight game looked like it might turn out differently. About halfway through the final quarter, a Logan Cooke punt pinned Denver back on its own 7-yard line. A quick three-and-out gave the Jags (trailing 14-10 at that point) the ball (after the punt) on the Bronco 47. Six plays later – including a 25-yard pass from Lawrence to Christian Kirk – Jacksonville was in the end zone, and in front 17-14.

But 3:54 was too much time left. It took Denver quarterback Russell Wilson just seven plays to navigate the 80 yards to put the Broncos back on top, 21-17. With the ball back in his court, Trevor started on his own 25-yard line with 1:43 left and holding two timeouts. The drama was short-lived. Trevor tossed his second interception on the first play of the drive, and Denver drained the clock from there.

Their fifth consecutive loss dropped the Jaguars’ record to 2-6. They were third in their division, and 3.5 games behind the 5-2 Tennessee Titans. At about the halfway point of the season, any suggestion that Jacksonville would be playing in the playoffs this year would have been greeted by titters.

A few hours after the Jaguars lost in London, the lowly Detroit Lions forged a surprising 27-17 halftime lead over the 4-3 Miami Dolphins. But the second half would prove cruel to the struggling Lions. They would net a negative 1 yard of offense during the third quarter as Miami pushed ahead 31-27. Their only fourth quarter possession would find them driving 53 yards in 10 plays, the drive wheezing out on the Miami 35 on a fourth-and-one incompletion from quarterback Jared Goff.

After dragging through a 3-13-1 season in the first year under head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions had now fallen to 1-6 in year two. The Vikings had already taken control of the division (they were 6-1 at that point), and the final playoff spot was currently held by the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers. Like the Jaguars, the Lions were left for dead at the halfway point of the 2022 season. Nothing to see here, just more endless rebuilding to be endured by two long-suffering franchises and their frustrated fan bases.

These people apparently forgot that cats have nine lives.

Last Sunday, the Lions survived the New York Jets, 20-17 (gamebook) (summary) when Greg Zuerlein’s last second, 58-yard field goal attempt sliced wide left. The victory was Detroit’s sixth over its last seven games, squaring their mark at 7-7.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars were pulling out a 40-34 overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys (gamebook) (summary) on a 52-yard interception return by Rayshawn Jenkins. Since their loss in London, the Jags have gone 4-2 (one of those losses to Detroit), and, at 6-8, have pushed themselves into the midst of the playoff conversation.

For most of the afternoon, it seemed that the Jaguars had met their match. With 4:07 left in the third quarter, Jacksonville looked up to find themselves trailing 27-10. And then the offense went off.

Beginning with a 59-yard touchdown pass to Zay Jones on that next play, the Jags racked up 173 yards on their next 13 plays, scoring touchdowns on three successive possessions to take a momentary 31-27 lead. Trailing 21-7 at the half, Jacksonville forced overtime by outscoring Dallas 27-13 in the second half – a thirty-minute span that saw them convert 6 of 7 third downs and explode for 339 total yards. Lawrence completed 17 of 25 for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns (against one interception) in the second half alone (a 118.8 passer rating) to ignite the charge. That’s the thing about this Jacksonville team. They can be dangerous like that.

Ranked eighteenth out of 35 qualifying passers after 8 weeks with an 88.9 rating, Lawrence has been torrid since. He has completed 70.4% of his passes over the last six games (157 of 223), averaging 280 passing yards per game, with a 14-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio – all good for a rating of 111.2. His season rating now stands at 96.6 – the tenth best in football.

Against the Cowboys, he got a huge assist from a long-dormant running game.

Through the season’s first nine weeks, Jacksonville employed one of football’s more potent running attacks. They ranked seventh, averaging 144.1 yards per game on the ground. Over the next four weeks, though, that running game became an after-thought – slipping to just 67 yards per game. But against the Cowboys, running the ball was back in style – to the tune of 192 yards – 116 of them in the second half. Of the 171 yards gained by the running backs, 155 were gained before contact – a stunning 6.46 yards per carry (the NFL average is 2.78 yards before initial contact) in a dominating performance from an offensive line that doesn’t get the attention it deserves. Working against a pass rush that led the league in in dropping the opposing quarterback on 10.5% of the pass attempts against them, that Jacksonville O-Line allowed just 1 sack of Lawrence against 42 passes thrown.

A vital run game, and clean pockets have been the key to success for more than one young quarterback.

(Parenthetically, this in not the first time that Dallas has struggled to stop the run this season. This is the third straight week they have allowed over 100 ground yards, and the tenth time this season they have allowed that kind of yardage. Five times, they have allowed more than 150 ground yards. Dallas sits twenty-fourth in run defense, and attacking them overland is a principle component of every game plan against them. In the end – unless they can fix this – this may be the Achilles’ Heel that dooms their season.)

Meanwhile in New York

The contest between the Lions and the Jets was quite different. And that was a surprise in itself. Detroit entered the contest on an offensive roll, averaging 32.2 points per game over its last five games. Meanwhile, the defense had been a season-long issue – allowing 26.7 points per game through their first 13 contests. But the high-flying Lion offense met with stiff resistance from one of football’s better defenses. Facing a defense that runs the fewest blitzes in the NFL, Detroit quarterback Jared Goff only faced 5 blitzes and was tasked with finding receivers who could shake free from the intense Jet coverage – a plan that effectively removed the big-play aspect of the Lion passing game. For the afternoon, Jared only attempted four passes at targets more than ten yards from scrimmage. All four fell incomplete.

This all led to a bevy of missed opportunities for the Lions. They put together three drives during the game that each lasted ten plays, marched at least fifty yards, and consumed at least five minutes of clock time. They had three points to show for those drives. They also found themselves in field goal range after an interception, and settled for just the field goal on that possession as well. The team that entered play scoring touchdowns 75% of the time it entered the red zone finished 0-for-3 in the red zone against the tenacious Jet defense. They ran 66 plays that day. Only one of them gained at least twenty yards – the very last one.

Lions trailing 17-13 with two minutes left in the game. It was fourth-and-one, with Detroit on its own 49-yard line. The Lions lined up with two receivers (DJ Chark and Amon-Ra St. Brown) split to the left, but not very far. Chark – the farthest outside – was only 4.5 yards removed from left tackle Taylor Decker. From the slot, St. Brown came in motion back to the right, carrying Michael Carter with him. Carter had been one of only two defenders on the left side, with D.J. Reed in position to cover Chark. At the snap, Chark ran an in-breaking deep route, effectively clearing Reed from that side of the field as well. The only remaining defender who could possibly make a play on a pass to the left side was linebacker C.J. Mosley, and the play-fake to running back Justin Jackson – who then also carried his route to the right side removed him as well.

Lined up tight to the right of the formation was a little-heralded tight end named Brock Wright, who had dropped the only pass thrown to him thus far in the game. Having coverage on him was probably the other linebacker, Quincy Williams. But, when Wright’s initial action off the line looked like he was blocking, Williams forgot about him and joined the rush.

But Wright wasn’t blocking on this play, carefully weaving his way through traffic to the wide-open ranges of the now-vacant left side. Brock was four yards past the line when he gathered in Goff’s pass with absolutely no one in front of him. On a day when 179 of Goff’s 252 passing yards would come on runs after the catch, Wright provided the last 47 yards the Lions would need this day.

Playoff Positions

At 7-7, the Lions’ playoff chances are quite good – if they keep winning. Standing in their way are the Carolina Panthers (5-9), Chicago Bears (3-11) and Green Bay Packers (6-8). At 10-7, it would be a surprise if Detroit didn’t get a playoff invite.

The game against the Packers, however, is in Green Bay against a Packer team that is eyeing its own closing sprint to the playoffs. At 10-7, the Lions are a good bet. Any loss in these last three that drops them to 9-8 likely puts them in jeopardy from a Seattle team that beat Detroit earlier in the season. If they pull this off, I believe they will be only the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 1-6 start.

The Jaguars path to the post-season is even cleaner. They finish with the Jets (7-7) tonight, the Texans (1-12-1), and then they finish the season at home against Tennessee (now 7-7 after a 4-game losing streak). If they win two of the three – as long as one of the wins is against the Titans – they will likely take the division. With a win already against Tennessee in the books, a Week 18 victory will give them a season sweep and force the fading Titans to beat both the Texans and the Cowboys (10-4) to win the division.

If either of these teams pull this off, it will be a noteworthy accomplishment. If both do, that may be the capper in one of the strangest seasons in memory.

As always, stay tuned.

Football

Stop Spreading the News

After 9 wins over two seasons, the New York Jets moved on from head coach Adam Gase, coaxing Robert Saleh – the energetic, ex-defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers – into taking over the reins. His first season in the Big Apple wasn’t over-awing – the Jets finished last in their division, with a 4-13 record.

Meanwhile, New York’s other team regressed to 4-13 and a last place finish (after a 6-10 mark in 2020) to bring to a close Joe Judge’s two-year run as head coach of Big Blue. The Giant’s new “get” was the former offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills, Brian Daboll.

As these two relatively new coaches approached the 2022 season, their teams were riding a collective 16-year playoff drought – five of those belonging to the Giants, and the other eleven belonging to the Jets, whose last invitation to the NFL’s post-season dance came following the 2010 season. That Jets team – coached by Rex Ryan and quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez – earned a Wild Card berth with an 11-5 record. They entered this season with double-digit losses in five of the last six seasons. Big Blue was riding a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 10 losses since the 2016 team fought their way into a Wild Card spot with an 11-5 record of their own.

Forgive New Yorkers if they’re enthusiasm trends more towards their baseball teams (the Yankees and Mets) than their downtrodden football clubs.

But then, as the 2022 season dawned, a surprising and refreshing change swept over the football aspect of the City that Never Sleeps. All of a sudden, the Jets and Giants started winning football games. In Week Seven, the Jets journeyed into Denver, beating the Broncos 16-9, while the Giants were also winning, 23-17, on the road in Jacksonville. With the win, the Jets moved to 5-2 on the season. They were a half-game behind the 5-1 Bills, and held the fifth spot in the playoff pecking order. The Giants’ win sent them to 6-1 for the season. They were also a half-game out in their division (trailing the 6-0 Eagles) and would also have held the fifth seed in their conference, had the playoffs begun that day.

It had been 16 years (since 2006) since both New York teams qualified for the playoffs in the same year, and yet here they both were, both not only holding playoff spots but in the very thick of their division races with half the season nearly over.

As it would turn out, Week Seven was the peak for these two clubs. The pinnacle for New Yorkers to dream of their two teams possibly meeting up in that big game. Since then, gravity has caught up with the two New York franchises.

J-E-T-S, J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS

The Jets’ Week 14 matchup brought them into Buffalo against the division leading, 9-3 Bills, who were fighting not only for a division title in a highly competitive AFC East (at this writing all of those teams are over .500), but were also trying to hold on to the conference’s top seed. As they have done all season, the Jet defense met the challenge presented by one of football’s top offenses. The Bills entered the game as football’s third-highest scoring unit. They were ranked second overall in yards per game. They were also the NFL’s best third-down team, converting 51.7% of all third-down opportunities. They limped out of their matchup with the Jet defense with just 20 points and 232 yards. They were just 2-for-13 on third down, including going 0-for-5 in the second half. This has been the most heart-warming part of the Jets’ turnaround season – Saleh’s defense. Thirteen games into the season, the Jets rank third in total defense, and fourth in pass defense (ranked by yards allowed). In passer rating against, they are second in the NFL, holding opposing passers to a 78.1 rating.

You can’t watch this Jets defense without believing that it is for real. Unfortunately, the defense hasn’t been quite enough, as the Jets – for the fourth time in the last six weeks – ended up on the losing side of the ledger, 20-12 (gamebook) (summary). The problem – as usual – was the offense. Averaging just 20.3 points per game (twenty-second out of thirty-two teams), the Jets were held below 20 points for the fourth time in the last seven games. They are twentieth in rushing and twenty-ninth in passer rating.

The quarterbacks – specifically Zach Wilson – have attracted most of the blame for this, but the offensive malaise is more general. In the loss to Buffalo, quarterback Mike White – who was impressive during his three starts – finished with a mediocre 78.6 passer rating. He was victimized by the same general problems that damaged Wilson’s performances. There was no running game (76 rushing yards) and shaky pass protection (he was sacked 3 times, and hit brutally hard on several other occasions by rushers who weren’t even slowed on their way to White). That series of violent hits is the reason that Mike won’t be available to make his fourth start Sunday against Detroit.

While the results haven’t been evident, there is a lot of young talent on the offensive side of the ball for the Jets. Right now, they aren’t getting enough production from the line to allow then to truly show what they can do.

Their slide has knocked the Jets out of the playoff order for the moment. At 7-6, they trail two teams for the final playoff spot. The 7-6 Chargers sit just ahead of them, but with a better conference record. Currently holding that final spot are the New England Patriots. They are also 7-6, but their seven wins include two against the Jets. New York’s final four games will all be rugged. They face two losing teams who have been playing much better football in the second half. From a 1-6 start, the Lions have won 5 of 6 to propel them back into the playoff conversation. After the Lions come the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a 2-6 start, they have won 3 of their last 5, including wins over Baltimore and Tennessee. Neither of those games will be easy. After that, they finish on the road in Seattle (7-7) and Miami (8-5). It will be a challenge, with that schedule, for them to leap-frog two teams.

Still Quite a Gap

In East Rutherford, the Giants had the opportunity to measure themselves against their once-beaten division rivals, as they hosted the Philadelphia Eagles. The game stayed close for the first quarter.

For New York’s NFC resident, their precipitous fall from grace (they are 1-4-1 over their last 6 games) may just be a matter of their finally arriving at the challenging part of their schedule. Of the seven games they’ve won so far this season, only two have come against teams with a winning records – the Titans (7-6) and Ravens (9-4). None of their wins against any opponent was by more than one score.

That they have done so well in one-score games (7-1-1) is a testament to the improved team culture, but no aspect of this team stands out as elite. The Giants are a work in progress.

In this game, the Eagles – 48-22 winners (gamebook) (summary) – clearly displayed the gulf that still separates these clubs. Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts only threw the ball 7 times in the second half after the Eagles surged to a 24-7 halftime lead. The Eagles simply ran through the Giant defense, piling up 192 rushing yards on 21 carries (a 9.1 average) and three rushing touchdowns. And all that was just the second half. For the game they finished with 253 rushing yards (only 77 of them from Hurts), an 8.2 average per carry, and 4 touchdowns on the ground.

Even with their recent stumble, Big Blue – at 7-5-1 – is still clinging to the final NFC playoff spot. But three of their final four games will be on the road against winning teams. This Sunday they are in Washington (also 7-5-1). They will follow that game with a visit to Minnesota to play the 10-3 Vikings. Then, after a final home game against Indianapolis (4-8-1), they will end their regular season in Philadelphia for their re-match against the 12-1 Eagles.

Against that closing schedule, they will have to hold off the 7-7 Seattle Seahawks (they will end the season with home games against the Jets and Rams) and the suddenly on-charging Lions (6-7), who finish with games against the Panthers (5-8), Bears (3-10) and Packers (5-8) after this Sunday’s game against the Jets. Should it come down to this, both Seattle and Detroit have head-to-head wins over the Giants.

It’s not a favorable situation.

Far from how things looked seven weeks into the season, the strongest likelihood is that neither New York team will survive to see the playoffs. Both, however, are in a strong position to finish with at least .500 records.

And, most importantly for them and their fans, both have sent notice that things are turning around in Gotham. Unlucky members of the two divisions in the NFL in which all of the teams are over .500, a playoff berth is apparently too much to ask of them just yet. But the strong early turnarounds can give New Yorkers real hope for the future for the first time in a while.

Finishing Strong

With 12:54 left in the first half of a still scoreless game, the Cincinnati Bengals lined up to kick their fourth punt of the game (out of four possessions). Seventeen minutes into the game, and the high-powered Cincinnati offense had struggled its way to just 47 yards at 2.5 yards per play. They had just three first downs to this point – one of them coming earlier in this drive on a defensive holding penalty.

Here, though, instead of giving the ball back, a critical mistake would provide the turning point in an eventual 23-10 Cincinnati victory over the visiting Cleveland Browns (gamebook) (summary). Heedless of the situation, a reserve linebacker named Tony Fields plowed full force into punter Drue Chrisman, drawing the second penalty from Cleveland that extended this drive.

Before Cincy quarterback Joe Burrow would snap the scoreless battle with a 15-yard touchdown toss to Ja’Marr Chase, Cleveland would gift them with two more first downs through penalty, the last one being a 33-yard pass interference call that set the Bengals up on the Browns 30-yard line. In all, 58 of the 85 yards that Cincinnati advanced on the drive were provided by Cleveland penalties.

Thereafter, the Bengal offense found its footing.

After earning just 77 yards on their first 24 plays (3.2 yards per), Cincinnati’s next four drives saw them gain 229 yards on 22 plays (10.4 per), on their way to two more touchdowns and a field goal to go with another punt – with the field goal providing (at the 14:57 mark of the fourth quarter) the final points of the game.

After a fairly brutal first half (which saw him complete only 9 of 21 passes – 42.9%), Burrow redeemed himself by hitting on 9 of 12 second half passes (75%) for 129 yards (10.75 per).

The win was Cincy’s fifth in a row, and seventh in their last eight games. After losses their first two times out, the Bengals have improved their record to 9-4 and forged a tie with Baltimore at the top of their division. A little hit and miss early in the season, Cincinnati has hit its stride. The conversation about the best team in the NFC includes several contenders. The Eagles, 49ers and (although they are more streaky than I would like) the Cowboys could all make cases. In the AFC – with apologies to Buffalo and Kansas City who have both shown some vulnerabilities in recent weeks – I think the Bengals are pretty clearly the best thing going in their conference right now.

As they burst into the public consciousness on their way to a Super Bowl appearance last year, the splashy aspect of this team has been the big-play pass potential of Burrow throwing to Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. That aspect is still there (although Higgins and Boyd were only healthy and on the field for a combined 3 snaps on Sunday). Where the Bengals have really impressed me in recent weeks are with the less talked about components of their team.

Defense

The Bengals don’t rank among the league’s elite in any defensive category. They are eleventh in points allowed, fourteenth in yardage given up – twentieth against the pass and eleventh against the rush. But their last three games have left an impact beyond the season-long numbers. In Week 12 they took down Tennessee, 20-16, holding superstar running back Derrick Henry to just 38 rushing yards. Their opponent the next week – the Kansas City Chiefs – boasted the league’s most dangerous passing attack. The Bengal defense held Patrick Mahomes to just 223 passing yards in a 27-24 win. Against Cleveland, they would face their second elite running back (Nick Chubb) in three weeks. Nick didn’t fare any better than Derrick did, finishing with just 34 rushing yards.

This is more than just passingly impressive. Each of those offenses present significant challenges that the Cincinnati defense was able to adapt to and contain (at the very least). The NFL doesn’t boast too many defenses who could pull something like this off. The defense is one of the underappreciated aspects of this team that will serve it well in the playoffs.

The Reviving Running Game

Eight weeks into the season, Cincinnati ranked thirtieth among the 32 teams in rushing yards per game. They were averaging just 81 per contest, and just 3.5 per rush attempt. They were also coming off a season-low 36-yard performance in a 32-13 loss to Cleveland.

That would be rock-bottom for the Cincy running game. Beginning with a 241-yard explosion the next week, the running attack has been a consistent feature of a now very diversified attack. During the ensuing five-game winning streak, Cincinnati has averaged 30.2 rushing attempts and 139.8 rushing yards per game. They are also gaining 4.6 yards per attempt.

The impact of this diversity shouldn’t be overlooked. After taking a 13-3 lead into the half against Cleveland, Cincy was able to take command of the second half with a savage running attack that saw them punch out 94 second-half yards – on their way 136 rushing yards (at 5.2 per rushing attempt).

Both of these other aspects of the team bring a different vibe than the beauty and precision of the passing attack. Both the defense and the running attack are notably physical and punishing, adding a layer of toughness that is still quite important over the last few weeks of the season and into the playoffs.

Who I like best in the NFC is still up in the air. But the more I see of the Bengals, the stronger the feeling we will see them again in the Super Bowl.

Football

Bengals on the Prowl

Granted, they started out slowly.

There was 9:20 left in the second quarter, and the Cincinnati Bengals – trailing Tennessee 10-3 at this point – were facing a fourth-and-eleven on their own 23. The ensuing punt was their fourth of the first five drives, and followed their third three-and-out in that span.

To that point of the game, the Bengals had managed 4 first downs, and had gained 87 total yards on 22 plays – an average of 3.95 yards per play.

But the Cincy defense answered with a three-and-out of their own, and the offense got the ball back with 7:29 left in the half – albeit with their backs to their own goal-line. They started on their own 8-yard line after a 52-yard punt and an unnecessary roughness penalty. The game then pivoted on the first play of that ensuing drive, when quarterback Joe Burrow dropped a screen pass into the arms of running back Samaje Perine. Starting the game in the absence of Joe Mixon, Samaje weaved through the Tennessee defense for 32 yards. It began a 9-play, 92-yard drive that Perine, himself, capped off, muscling through the middle of the Titan defense for the final 7 yards, tying the game.

Not counting a kneel-downs, the Bengal offense finished the game with 291 yards on their final 40 plays (7.28 per). Their last five drives resulted in 2 touchdowns, 1 field goal, 1 punt and 1 game-ending drive that consumed 12 plays and drained the final 6:07 off the clock. Before his completion to Perine, Burrow was just 7 for 15 (46.7%) for just 56 yards (3.73 per attempted pass), good for a 56.5 passer rating. Including the pass to Samaje, Joe finished completing 15 of his final 22 passes (68.2%) for 214 yards (9.73 per attempt, and 14.3 per completion), with a touchdown pass and no interceptions – a passer rating of 114.6.

A Microcosm

In a sense, last Sunday’s game in Tennessee – a 20-16 Cincy win (gamebook) (summary) was a kind of microcosm of the Bengal season. On the heels of a crushing loss in last year’s Super Bowl, the Bengals began the 2022 season with consecutive losses (in overtime to Pittsburgh and in Dallas). After squaring their record with wins against the Jets and Dolphins, they lost in Baltimore to their prime division rivals, dropping them to 2-3. To that point of the season, they hadn’t scored more than 27 points in any game. They ranked seventeenth in scoring (they were seventh last year), and twenty-second in yardage (they were thirteenth last season). Burrow’s passer rating – at that point – sat at 89.7. He ranked fourteenth out of 32 qualifying passers. He finished second in 2021 with a 108.3 rating.

But things turned around with a Week Six, 30-26 win over New Orleans. Beginning with that game, the Bengals would win (including Sunday) 5 of their next 6, scoring at least 30 points in 4 of them. During that span, Joe’s numbers – his rating has been 112.3 since that point – have more closely resembled his 2021 performance. After throwing 5 interceptions in those first 5 games (against just 9 touchdown passes), Joe has tossed 14 touchdowns over the last 6 games, with only 3 interceptions.

The Running Bengals?

New for the holidays is a surprising commitment to the run. Cincinnati began the season with 34 runs for 133 yards against Pittsburgh, but crossed 100 yards rushing just once over the next seven games. They hit rock-bottom, if you will, in their Week Eight loss in Cleveland, when they ran the ball just 10 times for 36 yards. Smarting after that 32-13 loss, Cincy ran with a vengeance against Carolina in Week Nine, pounding the Panthers for 241 ground yards on 39 rushes. But after their bye in Week Ten, they seemed to forget about their new-found identity, running for just 62 yards (on 24 attempts) as they beat Pittsburgh. The run commitment was (surprisingly) back on Sunday. Against football’s second-ranked run defense, Cincy pounded out 108 yards on 28 carries (just 3.9 per carry). The game’s second half featured 17 Cincinnati runs, even though only 48 yards were earned by them (2.8 per). For a team that came to prominence last year riding a big-play passing attack, it was a surprisingly physical approach.

Whither the Titans

In a sense, the offensive run commitment echoed the physicality of the Bengal defense, which, for the second consecutive game restrained star running back Derrick Henry. In the Divisional Game last year, Cincy held Henry to just 62 yards on 20 carries. He ended this game with 38 yards on 17 rushes. Only 15 of his yards came after contact. There are a lot of teams that get out of the first half against Henry and the Titans without sustaining much damage. Few are the teams that can trade blows with the enormous running back for the full four quarters. An impressive achievement.

But to do this, of course, requires the Bengals – or anyone else, for that matter – to significantly over-play the run. Henry was dealing with linebackers and even defensive backs pouring through the line, frequently tripping him up in the backfield. Before Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback in 2019, this was a common problem in Tennessee. Without enough of a passing threat, teams were at liberty to stack the line and play a seek-and-destroy defense against Derrick.

Now, those problems are re-surfacing as the passing game has started to regress. His first two seasons behind center, Ryan produced ratings of 117.5 (which led the NFL) and 106.5. His last two seasons has seen that efficiency decline to 89.6 last year, and 97.0 so far this year. This is now three straight games in which Derrick has been held under 90 yards rushing, and under 3.2 yards per carry. Tennessee has faded to number 12 in rushing the ball, and to twenty-ninth in total offense. They are twenty-sixth in points scored.

When he arrived in Tennessee, Tannehill was an overnight sensation after 6 mediocre seasons in Miami. As a Dolphin, Ryan was 42-46 with a passer rating of 87.0. I wondered then if Ryan had suddenly become a gifted quarterback overnight? Or if he was the same guy he always was, but now had the advantage of the dominating presence of Derrick Henry. Now, those questions need to be revisited.

Is the passing offense run by Tannehill threatening enough to allow the running game to thrive? Or is it time that the Titans start looking for a potential franchise arm?

Tied for First

Some time after their win in Tennessee, the Bengals found themselves tied for first in their division after Jacksonville came from behind (they trailed 19-10 in the fourth quarter) to beat Baltimore 28-27 (gamebook) (summary).

Baltimore has held leads of at least nine points in the fourth quarter in all four of their losses this season. This is a problem that they thought was behind them, as they strung together four straight victories since their last fourth-quarter stumble. It’s difficult, though, to be sure as the winning streak was fashioned on the backs of four losing teams (Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina).

The way this one panned out was more than a little surprising. Baltimore dominated the time of possession in the first half (18:49), but went into the locker room trailing, 10-9. They had two 10-play, 5-minute drives that petered out in the red zone. Their third field goal came after they took possession of the ball at midfield following a failed fourth-and-one sneak attempt from Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

For the game, Baltimore outrushed Jacksonville 162-38, but finished just 2 of 5 in the red zone. One of the two touchdowns they did manage came after they recovered a Jaguar fumble just 25 yards away from the end zone.

They began the season scoring 24 points against the Jets, 38 against Miami, and 37 against New England. Since then, they haven’t scored more than 27 in any game, in spite of the relative softness of the teams they’ve lined up against. They have found it increasingly difficult to sustain those long drives without committing the mistakes that force them to settle for three points.

And, then, there is that question of holding onto leads. Baltimore led this game for 39:28. Jacksonville held a lead for only 14:55. The Ravens have some questions to answer.

But, in spite of the fact that Cincy is now tied for the division lead, the road ahead favors Baltimore. For the Ravens, the string of cupcakes continues. Until they rematch the Bengals on the season’s final Sunday, Baltimore will play Denver (3-8), Pittsburgh (4-7), Cleveland (4-7), Atlanta (5-7) and Pittsburgh again. There is little question that they will be favored in all of those games.

The remaining schedule is much more challenging for the Bengals. They get Kansas City (9-2), Cleveland (4-7), Tampa Bay (5-6), New England (6-6) and Buffalo (9-3) before hosting that last game against the Ravens.

If they can run this gauntlet, it will make for an exciting finale.