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Football

Football

Jacksonville’s Comeback by the Numbers

I’m sure they couldn’t’ do it again if they tried.

Leading 24-0 with 5:28 left in the first half, the Los Angeles Chargers sent punter JK Scott to kick the ball away on fourth-and-two from their own 40.  Thirty-five yards downfield, the ball landed squarely on the top of the helmet of Jacksonville special teamer Chris Claybrooks.  After rolling around for a few alarming moments, the football was finally claimed by Los Angeles’ Amen Ogbongbemiga, setting the Chargers up on the Jaguars’ six-yard line.

If a twenty-four-point lead wasn’t enough for you, LA was now poised to deliver the true knockout blow.  But the final nail never came.   Three plays later, Charger quarterback Justin Herbert had receiver Keenan Allen wide open in the middle of the end zone, but he misfired, throwing the ball out of the back of the zone.  No problem, you might think.  LA went on to add a field goal that upped the ante to 27-0.  Normally, of course, this would be more than enough cushion.  But as events played out in one of the strangest playoff games in memory, that miss by Herbert would be one of two head-shaking mistakes that would make the Jacksonville comeback (gamebook) (summary) possible.

The Jaguars didn’t show immediate appreciation for the gift.  They went three-and-out for the fifth consecutive time (if you count a couple of interceptions thrown on third-down), but were able to flip field possession a little, setting LA up on its own 18.

After a nine-yard pass on second down brought LA to a third-and-one on their own 27, the Chargers dialed up a sweep for a wide-receiver named Michael Bandy.  The play was supposed to catch Jacksonville by surprise.  The surprised one, though, seemed to be Bundy, who actually turned away from the ball as Herbert was trying to hand it to him.

The ball glanced off of Michael’s shoulder and rolled free in the Charger backfield.  Bandy was able to fall on it, but the ten-yard loss forced another punt and set the Jaguars up at the LA 47-yard line.  Jacksonville’s first seven possessions of the game had totaled just 61 yards.  Five of them had been three-and-outs, and four of the five had lasted less than a minute.  To this point of the game, Jacksonville had committed more turnovers (5) than they had punts (3) or first downs (also 3).

But now, with a short field and still 1:49 before the half, Jacksonville began to untrack its offense.  Seven plays and 1:25 later, they were in the end zone, and the comeback was underway.

Jacksonville gained 329 yards on their final 44 plays over their final five possessions of the game – possessions which resulted in 4 touchdowns and the game-winning field goal as time expired.

The Numbers

As 27-point comebacks aren’t something you see every day, here are a few of the significant numbers that contributed to the most interesting of this year’s Super Wildcard Weekend games:

0 – Second half trips to the red zone by LA.  They had been 3-for-5 in the red zone in the first half.

0% – Percentage of third down conversions for Jacksonville in the first half.  They were 0-for-7.  They were two-for-three after intermission.

1 – First half receptions by Jacksonville’s leading receiver Christian Kirk on six targets.

2 – Second half receptions by LA’s Allen in 6 targets.  Keenen had 4 catches for 44 yards in the first half.

3 – Three-and-outs by the Charger offense over their final three possessions of the first half.

3 – Number of passes from Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence at targets at least 20 yards downfield.  Trevor completed the comeback while completing only one deep pass in the game.

7 – Called running plays by Los Angeles in the second half, in spite of the fact that they began the half leading by 20 points.

7.6 – Jacksonville’s average yard per play in the second half.  They averaged just 3.3 during the first half – while giving the ball away five times.

12 – Second-half rushes from Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne.  In spite of the fact that his team trailed by 20 at the half, Travis had nearly twice as many second half rushes as the team that was playing with the lead.  Etienne gained 72 second-half yards, including a huge 25-yard burst on fourth-and-one with 1:27 left in the game that set up the game-winning kick.

16 yards – Jacksonville’s longest play from scrimmage in the first half.  The play was a pass from Trevor Lawrence to Evan Engram.

18:41 – Los Angeles’ time of possession in the game’s first half.  The Chargers ran the ball 15 times during the first thirty minutes.

20 – Points that Los Angeles scored off of Jacksonville turnovers.  The Chargers didn’t turn the ball over at all, making Jacksonville’s comeback all the more remarkable.

24.5 – Lawrence’s passer rating for the first half of the game.  Trevor completed 10 of his first 24 passes (41.7%) for 77 yards (3.21 yards per pass), with his lone touchdown pass offset by four interceptions.

39 yards – the length of Zay Jones’ third-quarter touchdown reception that trimmed the lead to 30-20.  It was the longest play from scrimmage for either team in the game.

45.5% – Jacksonville’s second half blitz rate against Herbert.  They sent extra rushers on 10 of his 22 second-half drop backs.

50 – Yards after contact for Jacksonville’s Etienne.  Nearly half of his 109 rushing yards came after contact.

58:33 – Out of the 60 minutes played, this was the amount of time that Los Angeles held the lead.  Jacksonville never held the lead in the contest, as the game-winning field goal sailed through as time expired.

74 – Second half receiving yards by Jacksonville’s Kirk.  His first half catch had only gained 4 yards.

144.5 – Lawrence’s second half passer rating.  Trevor completed 18 of his last 23 passes (78.3%) for 211 yards (9.17 per).  He threw 3 more second half touchdown passes without being intercepted.

The most significant take-away from this contest, though, might not have a number to quantify it.  During the early-game onslaught, the Jacksonville coaching staff and sideline showed no signs of panic whatsoever.  The calmness exhibited by this young team under about as much duress as one could imagine was uncanny.  Things ended awkwardly for coach Doug Pederson in Philadelphia, but this man can coach.  He never panicked early in the season, as Jacksonville floundered to a 2-6 start, and he didn’t panic even when it seemed his team was dead-in-the-water on Saturday night.

High levels of composure are impressive, both in the team and the coaching staff.  It’s an expression of the abiding confidence this team has in itself – a core calmness that makes this talented team that much more dangerous.  Whatever happens for Jacksonville during the remainder of this year’s playoffs, the future sure looks bright for these guys.

Football

Under-Manned Giants Almost Topple High-Flying Eagles

Naturally, the San Francisco 49ers were hoping (but not expecting) for more from the New York Giants.  San Francisco went into the final game of their 2022 season with a chance to claim the top seed in the NFC.  But that chance rested on Philadelphia losing its final game of the season.  And the chance for that rested with the Giants, Philly’s final opponent.  Unfortunately for the 49ers, the only thing on the Giants’ minds Sunday was rest.

While several other teams had playoff chances or playoff positioning on the line in Week 18, the Giants future was already determined.  They would go into the playoffs as the NFC’s sixth-seed.  As frequently happens in this situation, Big Blue opted to sideline every conceivable starter.  When NY cornerback Nick McCloud trotted onto the field for Philly’s first offensive snap, he was making just his eighth start of the season.  Other than offensive linemen (who you can’t really swap in and out as easily) no other starter (on either offense or defense) had made as many starts.

That’s hard to do, given the roster size restrictions.  To manage this, the Giants de-activated safety Julian Love (who finished tied for the team lead in interceptions with 2), cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, pro-bowl running back Saquon Barkley (coming off a 1312-yard rushing season), linebacker Azeez Ojulari, offensive tackle Andrew Thomas, pro-bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence (who led the team in sacks [7.5] and QB hits [28]), and defensive lineman Leonard Williams.  In the category of Dressed but Did Not Play were linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux, starting quarterback Daniel Jones (who put together a solid 92.5 passer rating), wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins (who caught 33 passes), safety Xavier McKinney, cornerback Darnay Holmes, defensive back Fabian Moreau (who led the team in passes defensed with 10), linebacker Jaylon Smith (second on the team in tackles behind Julian Love), guard Mark Glowinski, center Jon Feliciano, and tight end Daniel Bellinger (who finished with 30 catches).

Additionally, receiver Darius Slayton (a team-leading 724 receiving yards) played only 3 snaps (having no passes thrown in his direction), receiver Richie James (57 catches) played only 2 snaps (on special teams where he fair caught one punt), and Jihad Ward – one of their most disruptive linebackers – played only 7 snaps – all on special teams.  Matt Breida – with 192 rushing yards coming in – was the team’s most prolific runner to play in the game, and – with 106 receiving yards – was also the most prolific pass receiver to play in the game for the Giants.

And so (with Philadelphia in serious pursuit of the top seed in the conference and playing all of their starters for the whole game), the first half of the contest played out pretty much as you would expect.  The Eagles trotted into the locker room with a 16-0 lead.  The makeshift New York offense had managed just 77 total yards, with quarterback-du-jour Davis Webb throwing the first 22 passes of his NFL career.  Only 9 of those were completed for a scant 55 yards.  Considering that the Eagles pass defense came into the contest ranked first (in yards allowed) and third in passer rating against (82.0), Davis’ first half passer rating of 48.7 could hardly be surprising.

Second Half

But a funny thing happened on the way to a season-ending blowout win over the Giants.  In the second half, the lightly regarded New York lineup turned the game on its ear.  And it started with the quarterback.

Rattled in the first half, Webb came back in the second to execute the game-plan with surprising precision.  He completed 14 of his last 18 passes (77.8%).  The completions only tallied 113 yards (8.07 per), but Davis tossed no interceptions, while completing the first touchdown pass of his career (a 25-yard strike to Kenny Golladay up the left sideline).  His second-half passer rating was a surprising 111.34.  Davis also ran for a touchdown as he helped spark the second-half ground attack that accounted 96 yards (and 8.7 yards per attempt).  In all, the offense that could only manage 2.3 yards per play through the game’s first 30 minutes, rolled up 207 yards (6.9 per play) over the back half of the contest.  In the end, it wouldn’t be quite enough.  The 16-point lead would prove to be too great to overcome, and Philly held on for the 22-16 win (gamebook) (summary).  But in the near-comeback, both Webb and a little used running back named Gary Brightwell (who ran for 52 second-half yards) turned a few heads.

Big Blue on D

But the most intriguing aspect of this game came with the Giants on defense.  While the offense was a tale of two halves, New York’s second-string defense was a source of frustration for the Eagles all game long.

Philadelphia rode a two-game losing streak into the contest – both games with backup Gardner Minshew under center.  With the top spot on the line, the Eagles probably rushed starter Jalen Hurts back into the lineup a notch sooner than they would have liked.  Ideal for them, of course, would have been to win one of the two previous games, giving Jalen two more weeks to heal.  But this win they wanted badly enough to take the risk.

Hurts played, but he played clearly under wraps.  The injury is to his throwing shoulder, but they weren’t worried about his throwing.  Jalen threw 35 passes – although only 6 of them were at targets more than ten yards up field.  When he did throw, his arm didn’t look compromised.  The Eagles’ concern was further damage if Jalen should take any unnecessary hits, and that was the part of their offense that was shut down.  Hurts entered the game with 747 rushing yards, a 4.8 yard average, and 13 touchdowns.  In this contest he scrambled 4 times (getting out of bounds 3 times and getting to the ground the other time) and performed 4 kneel-downs.  The only called running play he was involved in was a quarterback sneak.

It’s popular to presume that the Giants ramped up their pressure, supposing that Jalen would be less mobile than usual.  Already the league’s top blitzing team, Big Blue sent extra rushers on half of Jalen’s drop-backs (21 of the 42).  In fact, though, in their previous Week 14 matchup, the Giants also blitzed Hurts at a 50% rate (18 of 36 drop-backs).  The difference was the consistency of results.

In Week 14, Jalen was largely unbothered by the pressure – his passer rating that day was 109.2 as the Eagles built another large first-half lead (24-7), and cruised to a 48-22 bludgeoning.  Last Sunday, though, the pressure significantly impacted the Eagle passing game.  Jalen finished completing just 20 of 35 tosses (57.1%) for 229 yards (6.54 per).  His season averages were a 67.3% completion percentage and 8.17 yards per attempted pass – the second highest average in the NFL.  In addition, Hurts threw for no touchdowns and suffered just his sixth interception of the season.  His final 65.1 passer rating ended up lower than Dixon’s – Webb rebounded to finish at 75.8.

Some of this could be written off as rust.  There were a few questionable decisions.  But most of the problem with the Eagle passing game was the continuous pressure on Hurts.  Of his 15 incompletions – including the red-zone interception he tossed – 9 were throws that were rushed or disrupted by pressure.  Jalen was also sacked three times.

Here’s the interesting part.  It was the Giant’s scheme, but it was the second team executing it.  It wasn’t Thibodeaux or Ward knifing into the backfield, applying the pressure.  It was Nick McCloud and Jarrad Davis and a few others that you might not have heard of.

The Giants gave a lot of players who don’t see the field that often a chance to make an impression.  Here are about six of the defenders who hedged in the Philly passing game that caught my notice:

Safety Dane Belton: Dane came up with the interception in the end zone that ended Philly’s first drive of the second half.  Dane seemed to be frequently around the ball.  He was also the defender who denied a touchdown pass to Dallas Goedert early in the second quarter.

Cornerback Cordale Flott: Cordale spent much of the game locked up with pro-bowl receiver A.J. Brown, where he did a mostly outstanding job.  Brown did finish with 95 yards on 4 catches, but did most of his damage against the corner on the other side, Rodarius Williams.

Linebacker Micah McFadden: Looked very quick on the pass rush.

Cornerback Nick McCloud: Maybe as impressive as anyone on the field.  Covered the slot receivers nearly flawlessly, and was impactful in several blitz opportunities.

Rush End/Linebacker Tomon Fox: Wore out left tackle Jordan Mailata, who had little success keeping him out of the backfield.

Linebacker Jarrad Davis: Showed good instincts against the passing game, and was a frequent presence in the Eagle backfield when he blitzed.

The fact that these NY backups were able to have this kind of success against Philly’s first string offense raises some interesting possibilities for future opponents of the Eagles – including the Giants themselves.

If San Francisco defeats Seattle (as most people expect), and if New York takes care of Minnesota (as I expect them to do), then Philadelphia’s first playoff game would be against these same Giants, but now, with all of their starters on the field.

Let me be clear.  My expectations for the Giants are not high.  One of their achievements this year has been the conversion of quarterback Jones into a high-percentage, low-turnover, system quarterback.  A team can win a lot of regular season games with this kind of QB, but almost always, to push deep into the playoffs, you need more from your quarterback than just caution.

That being said, the notable success that the Giants defense had in pressuring Hurts sets up a potentially intriguing re-match.  Big Blue will almost certainly blitz Jalen heavily – they have done so in both meetings so far this year.  In the first meeting, a healthy Hurts hurt the defense with 77 rushing yards – including a rush TD to go with two more that he threw for.  Will Jalen’s escapability  (assuming that he is fully healthy for the game) compromise New York’s pressure schemes and lead to the kind of big running and passing game that highlighted the Week 14 victory?

Or will the Giants relentless blitzing continue to force more bad passes and more mistakes?

You would have to believe that Hurts, now playing at full speed, would be enough to answer New York’s pressure looks.  But that fact is that the Giants gained great confidence from their narrow loss on Sunday.

And in games against divisional rivals, anything can happen.  If there turns out to be a third matchup, it might turn out to be a more even contest than many experts might predict.

Football

Mr. Smith Doesn’t Quite Make It to Washington

It hasn’t, of course, been only Roquan Smith.  His impact, though, has been notable.  And the turnaround can be traced back to the first game after Mr. Smith made his way to Baltimore.

The Ravens’ early season was notable for coughing up late leads.  On their way to losing three of their first six games, Baltimore surrendered double-digit, fourth quarter leads in each of those losses.  They went on to allow at least twenty points six times in their first eight games.  At that point, They Ravens were allowing an average of 22.9 points per game (ranking twentieth in the NFL) and 364.3 yards per game (ranking twenty-fourth in that category). 

Beginning with his Smith’s appearance in Baltimore’s Week Nine game against New Orleans, the defensive transformation has been remarkable.  Over the last nine games, only San Francisco has allowed fewer points per game (14.4) that the Ravens 14.7, while the 288.8 yards per game allowed by Baltimore is the third fewest in the league (behind Pittsburgh’s 272.9 and Washington’s 278.1) in that span.

If those numbers don’t impress you, then perhaps you should have caught their regular season finale last Sunday afternoon.  Travelling into Cincinnati to match-up against the division-rival Bengals, the Ravens put on quite a show.  With Roquan taking a starring role, the Raven defense dominated the defending AFC champions – especially in the second half – like they haven’t been pushed around since quarterback Joe Burrow’s rookie season.

The high-flying Bengals were held to 90 yards and 3 first downs over the game’s last 30 minutes. The second-half domination included 6 three-and-outs in 8 possessions.  Burrow threw for just 81 yards on 7 of 14 passing.  The second-half running game managed but 22 yards on 12 attempts – a 1.8 yard average, with no run gaining more than 5 yards.  Cincinnati – which entered the game ranked fourth in the NFL in third-down efficiency with a 47.1% conversion rate – finished 0-for-7 on third down in the second half.

Baltimore made life very difficult for Joe’s elite group of wide receivers – especially for Tee Higgins who finished catching but 1 of the 7 passes thrown in his direction (for just 7 yards).  And they were able to sustain that coverage even when Burrow extended the play.  On pass plays that took more than 2.5 seconds, Joe was only 6 for 12 for just 43 yards – with only 1 of those completions earning a first down.

And then there’s this.  According to the Advanced Rushing section of the game summary on the pro football reference website, Cincinnati finished with no yards after contact on any of their 20 rushing attempts.  While not professing to have checked the running stats on every single NFL game, I have to say I’ve never seen that before.  The season-long NFL average is 1.66 yards after contact on running plays. 

It’s a battery of numbers that supports the game we watched – that Baltimore physically beat up on the proud Bengal team.  And, by the way, lost the game.

Week 18 Intrigue

The last week of the NFL’s regular season is always laden with intrigue, as teams presented with varying forms of playoff incentives and guarantees choose how aggressively to pursue this final victory, given the level of risk that accompanies every NFL game.  This particular game was played with an added layer of intrigue in that it was almost certain that these same two teams would be playing a re-match this week in the WildCard round (and, in fact, they are).

So now, in addition to worrying about potential injuries and potential home field advantages, there is also the question of how much to show the other team.  Cincinnati’s starters played the whole game, and were still swept off the field by the Baltimore defense.  This was even after players like Tyler Boyd took repeated hard hits and staggered off the field a few times.  But the question is worth asking.  Did the Bengal offense roll out their “A” game?  Will the Raven defense see some things this week that weren’t shown them last Sunday?

Baltimore coach John Harbaugh raised the intrigue to another level when he benched most of his impact offense players.  All of his defensive stars turned out, and relentlessly pounded on Cincinnati.  His stars on offense were nowhere to be seen.

Of course, he was already down starting quarterback Lamar Jackson – missing his fifth consecutive game with a knee injury – and his backup (Tyler Huntley) with a shoulder problem.  Along with the top two quarterbacks, Baltimore (by choice) played without top running back J.K. Dobbins and top receiver Mark Andrews.  And their replacements managed to do just enough to lose the game – four turnovers leading directly to 21 of the points Cincy scored in their 27-16 victory (gamebook).

Quarterback Issues in the WildCard Round

Andrews and Dobbins will be back for the playoff game, as will – probably – Huntley.  As for Jackson, he hasn’t been officially ruled out (as of this writing), but he also hasn’t been practicing.  And the fact that it’s a leg injury is particularly significant, here.  Even if Jackson plays on Sunday, if he isn’t the freakish, video-game-esque runner that America has watched for the last five seasons,  the Ravens have little chance of winning.  His pocket-passing skills aren’t enough.

Jackson will be one of three starting quarterbacks to miss the Wildcard round.  It has been suggested that Baltimore’s dependence on Lamar binds them when Jackson isn’t available.  There is, I think, something to that.  Harbaugh has said on more than one occasion that Lamar is at the center of every decision made by the franchise – in a sense, that the entire team is constructed around him.  That being the case, his loss would certainly have team-wide repercussions.

On the other hand, I think that this is mostly overstated.  Almost any team will have trouble overcoming the loss of its starting quarterback.  Even those teams that have high quality backups – guys that could perhaps be starters for other teams – take a significant step backward when forced to play without their starter.  In my opinion, Baltimore should worry less about any difficulties they have winning without Lamar, and be more concerned with how often they are being put in that situation.

Assuming that he misses Sunday’s game, that will make 10 of Baltimore’s last 22 games that Lamar hasn’t been available for.  His loss for the last four games of last season cost Baltimore a playoff berth, and now he will miss a playoff game.

Suddenly, Baltimore has reason to doubt the durability of their quarterback.  And they are not alone.  The Dolphins will be playing without their QB1, as Tua Tagovailoa remains in concussion protocol.  It’s the second time this season that Tua has been shelved by a concussion.  A rib injury cost him four games last season as well.  Tua had injury issues coming out of college.  This has been a break-through year for Tagovailoa – while he has been on the field.

The third backup starting a game this weekend is San Francisco’s third-string quarterback (and the last pick in this year’s draft).  The 49ers find themselves in a different kind of quarterback conundrum. 

The season was supposed to belong to Trey Lance – the third overall pick in the 2021 draft.  After a poor performance in the opening game loss, Trey went down with an injury early in Week Two.  Enter underappreciated former starter Jimmy Garoppolo, who went 7-3 as a starter, thrusting San Francisco into the middle of the playoff picture before his season ended with a Week 13 injury.

And with that injury, the season finally found Brock Purdy.  Under his watch, the 49ers have been a perfect 5-0.  His passer rating of 107.3 would be – with enough attempts to qualify – the best rating in the NFL (ironically enough just slightly better than Tua’s 105.5).  Garoppolo, by the way, finished third this year in passer rating at 103.

When the offseason finally arrives, the 49ers will face quarterback decisions as interesting as any other team in the league.