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a by-the-numbers look at the Cardinal season

Football

He’s Purdy Relevant Now

When the rest of your defense is playing man coverage, and one cornerback decides to play zone, bad things can happen.  By the time there were eleven minutes and forty seconds left in this season’s first playoff game, a lot of bad things had already happened to the Seattle Seahawks – who found themselves trailing the San Francisco 49ers by a 31-17 score.  Now, needing a stop to give themselves a chance to get back in the game, a final mistake would provide the dagger that would finish off their season.

The 49ers, on their own 26, faced a second-and-eight.  They lined up with two running backs (Kyle Juszczyk and Christian McCaffrey) stacked in an “I” formation behind quarterback Brock Purdy.  With their wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk close to the rest of the formation (Aiyuk was just 6.3 yards outside of left tackle Trent Williams, and Samuel just 3.6 yards removed from tight end George Kittle on the other side) the formation suggested a run.  And, indeed, there would be a play-action element to the play, as Purdy feigned a pitch to McCaffrey running right before booting out to his left.

The Seahawks responded with man coverage, mostly pretty good.  Unshaken by the run fake, cornerback Tariq Woolen hung tight with Aiyuk as he curled upfield, and linebacker Tanner Muse rode underneath Kittle as he made his way over the middle.  But cornerback Michael Jackson – who had lined up over Samuel – had other ideas, as he dropped straight back into his zone, his every step taking him farther away from Deebo, who was his responsibility on the play.

For his part, Samuel ran a simple shallow cross, and when he found himself at about the first-down marker he looked up to find himself all alone.  When the ball arrived, the closest defender to Deebo was Muse, who was guarding Kittle, 8.9 yards away.  The man responsible for him (Jackson) was all the way on the other side of the field, 28.7 yards away.  As they do as well as any team in football, San Francisco’s other receivers immediately converted into blockers, shielding off the defenders who had been covering them and opening the left sideline for Deebo to complete the 74-yard catch-and-run touchdown that officially broke the game open and sent San Fran on its way to a 41-23 Wildcard conquest of the Seahawks (gamebook) (summary).

Wide open would be the theme of the day – especially the second half – for the now 14-4 49ers.

About three football minutes earlier, the 49ers – leading at that point 23-17 – faced second-and-goal from the seven-yard line.  Three San Francisco receivers (Aiyuk, Kittle and Samuel) curled their way deep into the left side of the end zone, bringing almost the entire Seattle defense with them.  This time the Hawks were in zone, but all the motion to the offensive left side broke down the discipline of the zone.  By the time Purdy threw the ball, all four defensive backs were in the end zone and to the left of the left-most hashmark.  This included Jackson, the right-side cornerback, who had responsibility for the deep right side.

As far as the receivers already in the end zone were concerned, the Seattle coverage was quite adequate.  The problems were the two receivers that the 49ers sent back the other way – running backs Juszczyk and Elijah Mitchell.  Responsible for the short outside zone to that side, linebacker Uchenna Nwosu saw Jusczcyk sprint out of the backfield and head up field toward the end zone.  Nwosu could also see that there was no one back there to defend Kyle, so he chased after him – making it impossible for him to cover Mitchell, who swung out to the right flat.  When the pass hit his hands, there was no defender within 15 yards of Mitchell.  Linebacker Muse, the closest defender at the time of the catch, who went in immediate pursuit, was still 7.2 yards away from Elijah as he crossed the goal line.

On yet another spectacular afternoon for San Francisco’s rookie quarterback, no fewer than 9 of his 18 completions were to wide-open receivers.  Along the way, the 49ers took advantage of almost every coverage mistake made by the Hawks. 

Additionally, Kyle Shanahan’s well-designed schemes repeatedly broke down the Seattle coverages.  Over and over they attacked Seattle’s single-high safety schemes with a simple combination.  The receiver lined wide to the right (frequently Ray-Ray McCloud) would streak up the sideline, carrying cornerback Jackson with him, and forcing safety Quandre Diggs to stay very deep and slide toward the right.  On the other side of the formation, the other outside receiver (frequently Aiyuk) would run a vertical stem against Woolen (who always believed he had inside help, and always played with outside technique).  After achieving a sufficient depth, Aiyuk would break back over the middle for a virtually uncontested catch.  Brandon finished the afternoon with three catches.  All three came on this exact play, and accounted for 73 yards.

Starting his first playoff game, Brock was slightly shaky in the early going, but settled down as the game went along.  He finished an unremarkable first half completing just 9 of 19 passes (47.4%) for 147 yards and a touchdown.  He completed 9 of 11 in the second half (81.8%), his 9 completions accounting for 185 yards and 2 more touchdowns.  His passer rating for the first half was an OK 91.3.  His second-half rating reached the maximum score that the system allows – 158.3.  By the final gun, Brock had thrown for 332 yards and three touchdowns.  He averaged 11.07 yards per pass attempt, and 18.44 per completion.  He finished with another stellar rating of 131.5.

Brock has now started six games as the 49er quarterback – all victories.  In his six games, he has yet to record a passer rating below 95.4, and has been below 114.6 just once.  San Francisco has scored at least 35 points in five of the six.

Irrelevant?

The “Mr. Irrelevant” joke has been around for decades, and used to be far more meaningful.  In the 1976 draft, for instance, Mr. Irrelevant was a wide receiver from Dayton named Kelvin Kirk.  He was the last pick of the seventeenth round that year – the 487th player drafted.  Purdy, by contrast, although the last player taken in this year’s draft, was only the 262nd player taken in the shortened draft (now just seven rounds).  Irrelevant or not, Brock’s success is more evidence that draft status isn’t a compelling indicator of a quarterback’s potential.  Much has been made of the fact that Tom Brady was a sixth-round draft pick.  As the 199th player chosen in 2000, Tom was just the seventh quarterback taken behind Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn – taken by Cleveland just 12 picks before Brady.

San Francisco fans will also recall that Joe Montana wasn’t selected until the third round.  Eighty-one players, three of them quarterbacks (Jack Thompson, Phil Simms and Steve Fuller) were believed to be better gambles than Montana.

This is not to suggest that Brock’s career will necessarily rival those of Brady and Montana.  It does suggest that a lot of times a passer’s intangibles are more important than the physical talents that can be weighed and measured.

So How Good Is He?

Brock’s contributions to the 49ers’ recent success can’t’ really be considered in a vacuum.  In many ways, his circumstances are truly enviable, considering the team and the coaching staff that surround him.  And make no mistake, the 49ers do a lot of good things that makes Purdy’s job easier.

First of all, they run the ball vigorously.  In all six of his starts, San Fran has racked up at least 153 rushing yards and averaged at least 4.6 yards per rush.  In the second half of the Seattle game, the 49ers ran the ball 23 times – on their way to 33 rushes for 181 yards for the game.  In addition to being productive, this is a very physical running attack.  Against the Hawks, 93 of the 165 rushing yards earned by the running backs came after contact – 3.21 after-contact yards on every carry.  It’s a running attack designed to take a toll on opposing defenses.

This aspect of the San Fran offense could take on even more importance this week.  Dallas (their next opponent) has had difficulties all season stopping physical running games.

The impact of the running game on the passing game can hardly be overstated.  First of all, teams with this kind of run commitment demand simple pass defenses.  More than just that, a pounding run game takes the legs out of the pass rush.  Seattle sacked Brock just once, and only hit him two other times.  This kind of protection was largely responsible for Purdy’s ability to exploit the breakdowns in Seattle’s deep secondary.

But none of this means that Purdy is just a game-manager, or along for the ride.  While he is certainly the beneficiary of playing with a great team, his contributions to that greatness are significant.  Even as he has profited from the protection of his offensive line, Brock has made their job easier.

Purdy doesn’t hold the ball.  As soon as he senses the line begin to struggle, he finds somewhere to go with the ball.  This might be the most mature part of Purdy’s game, the quickness and accuracy of his decision-making.  He rapidly recognizes gaffes in coverage, and almost unerringly goes to the right place with the ball.

Brock’s best throw last Saturday might not have been any of his twenty-yard tosses, but might have been a simple RPO (football code for run-pass-option).

There is 10:28 left in the second quarter, San Francisco nursing a 10-7 lead.  They face a first-and-ten on the Seahawk 27.  As happened a few times during the game, the Seattle defense over-reacted to play-action – another thing that happens when teams run the ball a lot.  On this play, the run-action went to Purdy’s left, and the entire defense jumped at it – especially linebacker Alexander Johnson.  Johnson would have had the short-underneath zone to the right side.  But the second that Johnson abandoned his zone, Purdy immediately spun around darted and a pass to McCaffrey.  It was one of the few tight-window throws that Brock was called on to make, and he threw it right on the mark, just beyond the fingertips of Nwuso.

This is high-level quarterback play, and evidence of a young player contributing as mush to the team’s success as the team is contributing to his.  It all makes this San Francisco team a dangerous opponent.

So How Do You Approach Them?

The secret to beating San Francisco has eluded NFL teams for eleven straight weeks, now.  But even though they lost by 18 points, something of Seattle’s approach might be worth trying again by Dallas or some other future opponent.  Seattle did carry a 17-16 lead into halftime.

The thing they did right in the first half was they ran the ball.  Considering that the 49er defense finished second in the NFL in run defense, both for yards per game (77.7) and yards per rush (3.4), this might seem to be a counter-intuitive approach.  But here’s the logic:

First of all, where you don’t want to be against this defense is third and long.  A committed running attack – something not many teams have had the courage to employ against the 49ers – would keep your offense in manageable situations, wear down their defense – instead of letting them wear down yours – and keep that offense on the sidelines.  Things worked out almost exactly that way for Seattle in the first half.  They ran the ball 20 times for an impressive 82 yards, and controlled the clock for 16:53 of the half.  With that kind of ground support, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith enjoyed a fine first half, completing 9 of 10 throws for 104 yards and a touchdown.

I’m sure that they intended to carry that strategy over to the second half, but the 49ers’ running game got there first.

Trailing still by a point, San Francisco took the opening kickoff and marched methodically down the field.  Thirteen plays and 7:45 later, his teammates pushed Purdy over the goal line, and the 49ers had the lead.  The Seahawks mounted a response, moving 55 yards in 12 plays in a subsequent drive that absorbed the next 4:50 of game time.  But with the ball on the San Francisco 19-yard line, defensive lineman Charles Omenihu made the play that would change the season for both teams.

Reacting to outside pressure, Smith tried to step up in the pocket.  As he rushed past the Seattle quarterback, Omenihu reached out and slapped the ball out of Geno’s grasp.  The ball rolled behind Seahawk tackle Charles Cross, who noticed it too late.  Before he could react to the ball, San Francisco’s star defensive end Nick Bosa was on top of it.

Seven plays and 3:23 later, Mitchell was in the end zone.  When Seattle got the ball back for just their second possession of the half, there was only 14:02 left in the contest, they were down by 14 points and decided that they couldn’t afford to run the ball any longer.  After running 20 times for 82 yards in the first half, Seattle only ran the ball 5 times in the second half as the game spun away from them.

But while things didn’t work out for Seattle, that doesn’t mean that Dallas won’t have better success trying the same thing.  In fact, the more I think about this game, The more I think that both teams might embrace run-first game plans.

Both defenses feature dangerous pass rushers, so both offenses will want to stay out of third-and-long situations.  Both offenses take great pride in their running games.  Further, both offenses will appreciate the value of keeping the other offense off the field.  There are ample reasons for each team to test the other on the ground before they deploy their passing attacks.

The greatest difference is that San Francisco has fielded one of football’s best run defenses this season, while the Cowboys have been frequently damaged by opposing running attacks.  A trip to the Championship Game could well ride on which of these defenses can bring a halt to the other team’s running game.

January 20, 2023 by Joe Wegescheide

Football

Jacksonville’s Comeback by the Numbers

I’m sure they couldn’t’ do it again if they tried.

Leading 24-0 with 5:28 left in the first half, the Los Angeles Chargers sent punter JK Scott to kick the ball away on fourth-and-two from their own 40.  Thirty-five yards downfield, the ball landed squarely on the top of the helmet of Jacksonville special teamer Chris Claybrooks.  After rolling around for a few alarming moments, the football was finally claimed by Los Angeles’ Amen Ogbongbemiga, setting the Chargers up on the Jaguars’ six-yard line.

If a twenty-four-point lead wasn’t enough for you, LA was now poised to deliver the true knockout blow.  But the final nail never came.   Three plays later, Charger quarterback Justin Herbert had receiver Keenan Allen wide open in the middle of the end zone, but he misfired, throwing the ball out of the back of the zone.  No problem, you might think.  LA went on to add a field goal that upped the ante to 27-0.  Normally, of course, this would be more than enough cushion.  But as events played out in one of the strangest playoff games in memory, that miss by Herbert would be one of two head-shaking mistakes that would make the Jacksonville comeback (gamebook) (summary) possible.

The Jaguars didn’t show immediate appreciation for the gift.  They went three-and-out for the fifth consecutive time (if you count a couple of interceptions thrown on third-down), but were able to flip field possession a little, setting LA up on its own 18.

After a nine-yard pass on second down brought LA to a third-and-one on their own 27, the Chargers dialed up a sweep for a wide-receiver named Michael Bandy.  The play was supposed to catch Jacksonville by surprise.  The surprised one, though, seemed to be Bundy, who actually turned away from the ball as Herbert was trying to hand it to him.

The ball glanced off of Michael’s shoulder and rolled free in the Charger backfield.  Bandy was able to fall on it, but the ten-yard loss forced another punt and set the Jaguars up at the LA 47-yard line.  Jacksonville’s first seven possessions of the game had totaled just 61 yards.  Five of them had been three-and-outs, and four of the five had lasted less than a minute.  To this point of the game, Jacksonville had committed more turnovers (5) than they had punts (3) or first downs (also 3).

But now, with a short field and still 1:49 before the half, Jacksonville began to untrack its offense.  Seven plays and 1:25 later, they were in the end zone, and the comeback was underway.

Jacksonville gained 329 yards on their final 44 plays over their final five possessions of the game – possessions which resulted in 4 touchdowns and the game-winning field goal as time expired.

The Numbers

As 27-point comebacks aren’t something you see every day, here are a few of the significant numbers that contributed to the most interesting of this year’s Super Wildcard Weekend games:

0 – Second half trips to the red zone by LA.  They had been 3-for-5 in the red zone in the first half.

0% – Percentage of third down conversions for Jacksonville in the first half.  They were 0-for-7.  They were two-for-three after intermission.

1 – First half receptions by Jacksonville’s leading receiver Christian Kirk on six targets.

2 – Second half receptions by LA’s Allen in 6 targets.  Keenen had 4 catches for 44 yards in the first half.

3 – Three-and-outs by the Charger offense over their final three possessions of the first half.

3 – Number of passes from Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence at targets at least 20 yards downfield.  Trevor completed the comeback while completing only one deep pass in the game.

7 – Called running plays by Los Angeles in the second half, in spite of the fact that they began the half leading by 20 points.

7.6 – Jacksonville’s average yard per play in the second half.  They averaged just 3.3 during the first half – while giving the ball away five times.

12 – Second-half rushes from Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne.  In spite of the fact that his team trailed by 20 at the half, Travis had nearly twice as many second half rushes as the team that was playing with the lead.  Etienne gained 72 second-half yards, including a huge 25-yard burst on fourth-and-one with 1:27 left in the game that set up the game-winning kick.

16 yards – Jacksonville’s longest play from scrimmage in the first half.  The play was a pass from Trevor Lawrence to Evan Engram.

18:41 – Los Angeles’ time of possession in the game’s first half.  The Chargers ran the ball 15 times during the first thirty minutes.

20 – Points that Los Angeles scored off of Jacksonville turnovers.  The Chargers didn’t turn the ball over at all, making Jacksonville’s comeback all the more remarkable.

24.5 – Lawrence’s passer rating for the first half of the game.  Trevor completed 10 of his first 24 passes (41.7%) for 77 yards (3.21 yards per pass), with his lone touchdown pass offset by four interceptions.

39 yards – the length of Zay Jones’ third-quarter touchdown reception that trimmed the lead to 30-20.  It was the longest play from scrimmage for either team in the game.

45.5% – Jacksonville’s second half blitz rate against Herbert.  They sent extra rushers on 10 of his 22 second-half drop backs.

50 – Yards after contact for Jacksonville’s Etienne.  Nearly half of his 109 rushing yards came after contact.

58:33 – Out of the 60 minutes played, this was the amount of time that Los Angeles held the lead.  Jacksonville never held the lead in the contest, as the game-winning field goal sailed through as time expired.

74 – Second half receiving yards by Jacksonville’s Kirk.  His first half catch had only gained 4 yards.

144.5 – Lawrence’s second half passer rating.  Trevor completed 18 of his last 23 passes (78.3%) for 211 yards (9.17 per).  He threw 3 more second half touchdown passes without being intercepted.

The most significant take-away from this contest, though, might not have a number to quantify it.  During the early-game onslaught, the Jacksonville coaching staff and sideline showed no signs of panic whatsoever.  The calmness exhibited by this young team under about as much duress as one could imagine was uncanny.  Things ended awkwardly for coach Doug Pederson in Philadelphia, but this man can coach.  He never panicked early in the season, as Jacksonville floundered to a 2-6 start, and he didn’t panic even when it seemed his team was dead-in-the-water on Saturday night.

High levels of composure are impressive, both in the team and the coaching staff.  It’s an expression of the abiding confidence this team has in itself – a core calmness that makes this talented team that much more dangerous.  Whatever happens for Jacksonville during the remainder of this year’s playoffs, the future sure looks bright for these guys.

January 18, 2023 by Joe Wegescheide

Football

Under-Manned Giants Almost Topple High-Flying Eagles

Naturally, the San Francisco 49ers were hoping (but not expecting) for more from the New York Giants.  San Francisco went into the final game of their 2022 season with a chance to claim the top seed in the NFC.  But that chance rested on Philadelphia losing its final game of the season.  And the chance for that rested with the Giants, Philly’s final opponent.  Unfortunately for the 49ers, the only thing on the Giants’ minds Sunday was rest.

While several other teams had playoff chances or playoff positioning on the line in Week 18, the Giants future was already determined.  They would go into the playoffs as the NFC’s sixth-seed.  As frequently happens in this situation, Big Blue opted to sideline every conceivable starter.  When NY cornerback Nick McCloud trotted onto the field for Philly’s first offensive snap, he was making just his eighth start of the season.  Other than offensive linemen (who you can’t really swap in and out as easily) no other starter (on either offense or defense) had made as many starts.

That’s hard to do, given the roster size restrictions.  To manage this, the Giants de-activated safety Julian Love (who finished tied for the team lead in interceptions with 2), cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, pro-bowl running back Saquon Barkley (coming off a 1312-yard rushing season), linebacker Azeez Ojulari, offensive tackle Andrew Thomas, pro-bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence (who led the team in sacks [7.5] and QB hits [28]), and defensive lineman Leonard Williams.  In the category of Dressed but Did Not Play were linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux, starting quarterback Daniel Jones (who put together a solid 92.5 passer rating), wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins (who caught 33 passes), safety Xavier McKinney, cornerback Darnay Holmes, defensive back Fabian Moreau (who led the team in passes defensed with 10), linebacker Jaylon Smith (second on the team in tackles behind Julian Love), guard Mark Glowinski, center Jon Feliciano, and tight end Daniel Bellinger (who finished with 30 catches).

Additionally, receiver Darius Slayton (a team-leading 724 receiving yards) played only 3 snaps (having no passes thrown in his direction), receiver Richie James (57 catches) played only 2 snaps (on special teams where he fair caught one punt), and Jihad Ward – one of their most disruptive linebackers – played only 7 snaps – all on special teams.  Matt Breida – with 192 rushing yards coming in – was the team’s most prolific runner to play in the game, and – with 106 receiving yards – was also the most prolific pass receiver to play in the game for the Giants.

And so (with Philadelphia in serious pursuit of the top seed in the conference and playing all of their starters for the whole game), the first half of the contest played out pretty much as you would expect.  The Eagles trotted into the locker room with a 16-0 lead.  The makeshift New York offense had managed just 77 total yards, with quarterback-du-jour Davis Webb throwing the first 22 passes of his NFL career.  Only 9 of those were completed for a scant 55 yards.  Considering that the Eagles pass defense came into the contest ranked first (in yards allowed) and third in passer rating against (82.0), Davis’ first half passer rating of 48.7 could hardly be surprising.

Second Half

But a funny thing happened on the way to a season-ending blowout win over the Giants.  In the second half, the lightly regarded New York lineup turned the game on its ear.  And it started with the quarterback.

Rattled in the first half, Webb came back in the second to execute the game-plan with surprising precision.  He completed 14 of his last 18 passes (77.8%).  The completions only tallied 113 yards (8.07 per), but Davis tossed no interceptions, while completing the first touchdown pass of his career (a 25-yard strike to Kenny Golladay up the left sideline).  His second-half passer rating was a surprising 111.34.  Davis also ran for a touchdown as he helped spark the second-half ground attack that accounted 96 yards (and 8.7 yards per attempt).  In all, the offense that could only manage 2.3 yards per play through the game’s first 30 minutes, rolled up 207 yards (6.9 per play) over the back half of the contest.  In the end, it wouldn’t be quite enough.  The 16-point lead would prove to be too great to overcome, and Philly held on for the 22-16 win (gamebook) (summary).  But in the near-comeback, both Webb and a little used running back named Gary Brightwell (who ran for 52 second-half yards) turned a few heads.

Big Blue on D

But the most intriguing aspect of this game came with the Giants on defense.  While the offense was a tale of two halves, New York’s second-string defense was a source of frustration for the Eagles all game long.

Philadelphia rode a two-game losing streak into the contest – both games with backup Gardner Minshew under center.  With the top spot on the line, the Eagles probably rushed starter Jalen Hurts back into the lineup a notch sooner than they would have liked.  Ideal for them, of course, would have been to win one of the two previous games, giving Jalen two more weeks to heal.  But this win they wanted badly enough to take the risk.

Hurts played, but he played clearly under wraps.  The injury is to his throwing shoulder, but they weren’t worried about his throwing.  Jalen threw 35 passes – although only 6 of them were at targets more than ten yards up field.  When he did throw, his arm didn’t look compromised.  The Eagles’ concern was further damage if Jalen should take any unnecessary hits, and that was the part of their offense that was shut down.  Hurts entered the game with 747 rushing yards, a 4.8 yard average, and 13 touchdowns.  In this contest he scrambled 4 times (getting out of bounds 3 times and getting to the ground the other time) and performed 4 kneel-downs.  The only called running play he was involved in was a quarterback sneak.

It’s popular to presume that the Giants ramped up their pressure, supposing that Jalen would be less mobile than usual.  Already the league’s top blitzing team, Big Blue sent extra rushers on half of Jalen’s drop-backs (21 of the 42).  In fact, though, in their previous Week 14 matchup, the Giants also blitzed Hurts at a 50% rate (18 of 36 drop-backs).  The difference was the consistency of results.

In Week 14, Jalen was largely unbothered by the pressure – his passer rating that day was 109.2 as the Eagles built another large first-half lead (24-7), and cruised to a 48-22 bludgeoning.  Last Sunday, though, the pressure significantly impacted the Eagle passing game.  Jalen finished completing just 20 of 35 tosses (57.1%) for 229 yards (6.54 per).  His season averages were a 67.3% completion percentage and 8.17 yards per attempted pass – the second highest average in the NFL.  In addition, Hurts threw for no touchdowns and suffered just his sixth interception of the season.  His final 65.1 passer rating ended up lower than Dixon’s – Webb rebounded to finish at 75.8.

Some of this could be written off as rust.  There were a few questionable decisions.  But most of the problem with the Eagle passing game was the continuous pressure on Hurts.  Of his 15 incompletions – including the red-zone interception he tossed – 9 were throws that were rushed or disrupted by pressure.  Jalen was also sacked three times.

Here’s the interesting part.  It was the Giant’s scheme, but it was the second team executing it.  It wasn’t Thibodeaux or Ward knifing into the backfield, applying the pressure.  It was Nick McCloud and Jarrad Davis and a few others that you might not have heard of.

The Giants gave a lot of players who don’t see the field that often a chance to make an impression.  Here are about six of the defenders who hedged in the Philly passing game that caught my notice:

Safety Dane Belton: Dane came up with the interception in the end zone that ended Philly’s first drive of the second half.  Dane seemed to be frequently around the ball.  He was also the defender who denied a touchdown pass to Dallas Goedert early in the second quarter.

Cornerback Cordale Flott: Cordale spent much of the game locked up with pro-bowl receiver A.J. Brown, where he did a mostly outstanding job.  Brown did finish with 95 yards on 4 catches, but did most of his damage against the corner on the other side, Rodarius Williams.

Linebacker Micah McFadden: Looked very quick on the pass rush.

Cornerback Nick McCloud: Maybe as impressive as anyone on the field.  Covered the slot receivers nearly flawlessly, and was impactful in several blitz opportunities.

Rush End/Linebacker Tomon Fox: Wore out left tackle Jordan Mailata, who had little success keeping him out of the backfield.

Linebacker Jarrad Davis: Showed good instincts against the passing game, and was a frequent presence in the Eagle backfield when he blitzed.

The fact that these NY backups were able to have this kind of success against Philly’s first string offense raises some interesting possibilities for future opponents of the Eagles – including the Giants themselves.

If San Francisco defeats Seattle (as most people expect), and if New York takes care of Minnesota (as I expect them to do), then Philadelphia’s first playoff game would be against these same Giants, but now, with all of their starters on the field.

Let me be clear.  My expectations for the Giants are not high.  One of their achievements this year has been the conversion of quarterback Jones into a high-percentage, low-turnover, system quarterback.  A team can win a lot of regular season games with this kind of QB, but almost always, to push deep into the playoffs, you need more from your quarterback than just caution.

That being said, the notable success that the Giants defense had in pressuring Hurts sets up a potentially intriguing re-match.  Big Blue will almost certainly blitz Jalen heavily – they have done so in both meetings so far this year.  In the first meeting, a healthy Hurts hurt the defense with 77 rushing yards – including a rush TD to go with two more that he threw for.  Will Jalen’s escapability  (assuming that he is fully healthy for the game) compromise New York’s pressure schemes and lead to the kind of big running and passing game that highlighted the Week 14 victory?

Or will the Giants relentless blitzing continue to force more bad passes and more mistakes?

You would have to believe that Hurts, now playing at full speed, would be enough to answer New York’s pressure looks.  But that fact is that the Giants gained great confidence from their narrow loss on Sunday.

And in games against divisional rivals, anything can happen.  If there turns out to be a third matchup, it might turn out to be a more even contest than many experts might predict.

January 13, 2023 by Joe Wegescheide

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