It was fitting that J.C. Jackson would be the one to make that last play.

With 5:06 left in the game, and trailing the Patriots 24-17, Buffalo began their last drive on their own 25 where they began to drive methodically downfield – holding two timeouts.

Members of the same division, the Bills line up against the vaunted New England defense twice a year, and are certainly more familiar with them than many of the teams that have faced them this year.  While they knew the Patriots would match cornerback supreme Stephon Gilmore on John Brown – their most dangerous receiver, they also knew which of the New England defenders they could take advantage of.

Their favorite matchup of the evening was Cole Beasley on Jackson.  All evening Jackson struggled accounting for Beasley’s quickness.  For the game, Cole would catch 7 passes for 108 yards – most of them against Jackson in man coverage.  He caught 5 for 85 yards in the second half alone, including 4 in this final drive for 57 yards.

The Bills picked up two early first downs on throws to Beasley of 13 and then 12 yards, bringing them to midfield.  An 11-yard scramble from Josh Allen brought them to the Patriot 39 with 3:39 left.  But here, the drive seemed to stall.  When a third-down run from Devin Singletary came up a yard short, Buffalo put the game in the hands of young quarterback, Allen.

As he had done on Thanksgiving against Dallas, Josh attempted to navigate the yard with a quarterback sneak, only to find his way initially hedged.  Not to be denied, Allen fought his way out of the chaos at the line and found enough of an opening to dive through to pick up the first down.

After an illegal formation penalty brought them back to the 33, Allen (in spite of heavy pressure) threw the pass that looked like it might send the game into overtime.

New England showed man coverage in the pre-snap, but dropped into cover-two.  Outside receiver Robert Foster’s deep corner route pulled safety Devin McCourty further and further from the middle of the field, opening a void 25-yards downfield that Beasley settled into for the catch that gave Buffalo a first-and-goal at the 8.

The Stakes

Usually in their Week 16 game, the Patriots are looking for that victory that will wrap up the number one seed in their conference.  This year, that opportunity was already lost.  Notwithstanding that they had yet to clinch their own division (a rarity in New England), the Patriots did come into the game holding the conference’s second seed – with its promise of a first-round bye if they could hang onto it.  Buffalo came into the game with a playoff berth already locked up and the fifth seed all but assured.  They did have a chance to actually take the division, but that would mean not only would they have to beat the Patriots in New England, but Miami would have to do the same next week – an unlikely combination.

So, from a seeding standpoint, this game was more important to the Patriots than the Bills.  The stakes for the Bills were less tangible, but just as high.  They were looking for that franchise moment – that one game when they would go into New England and knock the defending champions down in an important contest.  In that sense, these final 8 yards might have been the biggest yards of the Buffalo season.  They were literally all that separated them from the longtime kings of their division and their conference.

They had 2:21 left, including one timeout and the two-minute warning to re-write the franchise narrative.

The End Game

The first-down call was damaging – a designed off-tackle run by Allen that resulted in the loss of a yard and took the game to the two-minute warning.  Their moment would come on the next play.

Another of the matchups available to Buffalo all game – and one that they perhaps didn’t take advantage of as much as they should have – was tight end Dawson Knox on safety Patrick Chung, who had coverage on him all over the field.  On the shorter routes, Chung could adequately hang with Dawson, but was no match for his speed on deeper routes.

With 9:30 left in the first quarter, Knox ran a deep route from the NE 17 to the corner of the left end zone with Chung trailing him by about five yards.  But Allen couldn’t get enough loft on the ball and missed the touchdown as he threw a line drive over Dawson’s head.

With 16 seconds left in the first half, they came back to this matchup, with Knox running toward that same corner of the end zone.  This time, Josh laid the ball in perfectly for a 33-yard play that left the ball on the one-yard line, setting up the score that sent the game into the half tied at ten.

Now, with two minutes left, it was time for Knox vs Chung round three.  Again, Dawson was running in the left corner of the end zone, with Patrick in trail mode.  And once again, Josh couldn’t get any air under the ball.  As the players, coaches and fans of the Bills watched the pass soar over Knox’ head, they all knew what would happen next.  Now it was third-and-goal.

With Knox bracketed by Chung and Joejuan Williams, Allen had to go elsewhere.  Josh may have had a shot at Beasley in a smallish window in between Jackson and Duron Harmon, and may actually have been waiting for Brown to get some separation from Gilmore on a crossing route.  Whatever he was waiting for, Allen held the ball too long.  And with Kyle Van Noy streaming around the corner to his right, Josh just pulled the ball down and stepped up into the sack and a six-yard loss.

The fourth-and-goal play was doomed from the start.  After showing a seven-man blitz, three of those potential rushers dropped off.  But the deception did its job.  Of the four who actually rushed, three came through free – Van Noy and John Simon off the edges, and especially Jamie Collins up the middle.  The pressure caused Allen to retreat all the way to the 30-yard line before he flung his desperation pass into the corner of the right end zone.  There in the area was Beasley.  But underneath him, and watching the ball all the way, was Jackson.  They converged along the right sideline, where both leaped for the ball.  But J.C. had the superior position, and slapped Buffalo’s last-gasp pass away.

Aftermath

With the 24-17 victory (gamebook) (summary), New England wins its eleventh consecutive division title, but probably must still beat Miami next week to get their first round bye.  Back in the playoffs, Buffalo will be the fifth seed – almost certainly headed to Houston.

As to the eight yards, well it’s closer than Buffalo has been to the Patriots in many a year.  But there are no moral victories in the NFL.  This game was there for Buffalo to take.  The Bills will now take this “almost” with them into the playoffs, where questions about Allen and the offense will follow them.

For the Patriots, in addition to the division crown, this game may mark the point where the offense finally figured itself out.  Measured against an exceedingly tough Buffalo defense that ranked third overall, second in points allowed, third against the pass and second in passer rating against, the heretofore struggling Patriot offense created 414 yards of offense – 143 of them rush yards.  More than this, quarterback Tom Brady saddled that Buffalo pass defense with a 111.0 passer rating.  It was Brady’s best passer rating game since Week Three against Miami, and the highest allowed by Buffalo this season.  In the second half, Tom completed 10 of 11 passes (90.9%) for 137 yards.  After controlling the ball for 21:17 of the first half, the Patriots went on to dominate time of possession 38:52 to 21:08.  They held the ball longer in the first half than Buffalo did all game.

Finally, future opponents of New England will note Jackson’s difficulties with quicker receivers and Chung’s struggles with tight ends that can go deep.  As the season winds to its close and we learn more and more about them, the key to the Patriot defense is almost certainly its ability to rush the passer.

Unique to New England is the absence of a dominant pass rusher.  There is no Nick Bosa or Aaron Donald – no one for the offense to focus on.  It’s the Patriot linebackers that make the pass rush so difficult to slow down: Don’t’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy.  They line up everywhere.  Sometimes they rush.  Sometimes they don’t.  Sometimes they time their delayed rushes perfectly.

It works out to being a sixty-minute guessing game.  If the offense guesses wrong, they will be plagued with free rushers into their backfield.  And if they guess right and manage to put blockers on all the Patriots that are coming, then there will be opportunities in the secondary for big plays.

Last Saturday, the Bills almost cashed in on enough of them.

With 6:47 left in the first half last Saturday evening, Todd Gurley punched the ball over from the one yard line to give the Los Angeles Rams a 21-10 lead in a must-have game against their division rivals from San Francisco.  By game’s end, the Rams would roll up 395 yards of offense, score 4 touchdowns, and ring up 31 points against the NFL’s second-ranked defense.

With 4:50 left in the first quarter the next Sunday afternoon, Tennessee’s rookie receiver A.J. Brown took a pitch and cut it up field for a 49-yard touchdown run that gave the Titans a 14-0 lead in a fairly critical game against the New Orleans Saints.  By game’s end – with quarterback Ryan Tannehill ringing up a 133.6 passer rating – the Titans would finish with 397 yards, 4 touchdowns and 28 points against the Saints.

Neither lead would hold, as both the 49ers and Saints would rally to victories – 34-31 for San Francisco (gamebook) (summary), and 38-28 for New Orleans (gamebook) (summary).  But as the regular season is winding to its close, questions are starting to emerge about the defenses of nearly all of the top teams in the NFC.

Among the teams that have clinched playoff spots in the NFC, Minnesota ranks fourteenth in total defense, after allowing over 180 rushing yards for the second time in four weeks.  The Seahawks, who have served up at least 24 points in four straight games, and have allowed over 20 in all but two games this season, rank twenty-sixth in yardage and twenty-first in points allowed.  Green Bay’s defense seems to be on the best roll at the moment – the Packers haven’t allowed more than 15 points in any of their last 4 games – a span during which they have held opposing passers to a 61.0 rating while allowing just 92.3 rushing yards per game and only 3.8 yards per run.  The problem is that all of this domination has come against some of the most struggling offenses in football – the Giants, Redskins and Bears.

Last Monday, they did dominate Minnesota – in Minnesota, no less.  The Vikings, though, were minus both of their top running backs and gave up on the run very early.  So that game comes with a significant asterisk.  The last healthy and competent offense they faced was San Francisco in Week 12 – a game they were pushed around in to the tune of 37-8.  The Packers (who rank just eighteenth in the league) have also allowed 34 points to Philadelphia, 24 to Dallas, 22 to Detroit, 24 to Oakland, 24 to Kansas City and 26 to the Chargers.

And then there are the Saints and the 49ers.

The Saints opened the season outscoring Houston 30-28, and have been trying to stay one score ahead of its defense ever since.  They are currently football’s fifth highest scoring team (with 416 points on the season), while ranking fourteenth in scoring defense – having allowed 331 over 15 games this season.  Over the last five weeks they have allowed 31 points to Carolina, 48 points to San Francisco and now 28 points to Tennessee.  This is not a formula that bodes well for a deep playoff run.

In addition to the 272 passing yards and three touchdowns from Tannehill, the Saints also saw the Derrick Henry-less Titans pound them for 149 ground yards and a 5.7 average.  The shakiness of their defense will probably cost them a first-round playoff bye, and will most likely be their demise once the playoffs start.

The surprise addition to this list, of course, is San Francisco.  In their 7-0 start, defense was the 49ers calling card.  Through that point of the season, San Fran had surrendered just 7 touchdowns, while racking up 27 sacks.  Through their first 11 games, they dropped 44 opposing quarterbacks.  That total led the NFL at that point – as did their 11.8% sack ratio.  Through their first eleven games, they ranked first in overall defense and first against the pass while ranking second in points allowed with 163 and second in passer rating against at 72.7.

Since then, opposing game plans have sought to neutralize that pass rush – and with surprising success.  Over the last four games, the 49ers have allowed 20 points to Baltimore, 46 to New Orleans, 29 to Atlanta, and 31 to the Rams.  Over the last 152 pass attempts against them, the 49ers have just 3 sacks.  Not coincidentally, they have also intercepted just one pass in those last four games, while allowing 15 touchdowns – ten of them on passes.  The last four quarterbacks they’ve faced hold a 102.4 passer rating.

The Rams subverted the San Francisco rush by rolling Jared Goff out of the pocket – and usually out of trouble, and by slowing the 49ers with a bevy of screen passes.

The AFC side of the board has plenty of worrisome defenses – Buffalo, New England and especially Baltimore.  On the NFC side, the best defense may well be fielded by the team with the worst record In the tournament – Philadelphia.

Eagles in the Playoffs?

After Week Seven, a somber Doug Pederson stood before the room full of reporters and conceded that the 37-10 thrashing his team had just absorbed at the hands of the hated Dallas Cowboys was one of the low points of his career.  Week 16 would provide sweet, sweet revenge as the Eagles delivered a dagger to the Cowboy hearts with a 17-9 victory that left them in charge of the division.  While I can’t honestly say I’d be stunned if the Giants rose up in Week 17 to knock Philly back out of the playoffs, still, all that stands between the Eagles and the division title is a win against the 4-11 Giants.  Consistency has not been the strong point of this division.

As to the Eagle defense – yes, they have had their gaffs, too – even after their bye when they began to get mostly healthy.  In recent weeks the Dolphins (37) and the Redskins (27) – hardly offensive juggernauts – have both put a fair amount of points on the board against them.

Even so, the Eagles rank ninth this season in total defense, and have played some of their best football against some of the better opponents they’ve lined up against (Buffalo, New England, Seattle and Dallas).

As it looks right now, the AFC playoffs could easily produce a string of 17-13 games.  If you were to make a guess about the NFC side of the ticket, you would have to surmise that the contests there could get very, very wild, indeed.

Two weeks ago the Houston Texans’ franchise had a watershed moment as they finally earned a victory against their nemesis (well, one of their nemeses) in New England.  It was one of those games that you look back on even years later as one of the significant turning points in franchise history.

And then in Week 14, at home against a downtrodden Denver team, they undid almost all of the good of the New England win.  They were simply slapped around at home by a 5-win Bronco team.  The 38-24 final doesn’t do justice to the domination, as Denver led at one point by the improbable score of 38-3.

That game, coming in a crucial part of the season, makes the Texans a hard team to trust.  Now, as they travelled to Nashville to play a Tennessee team that had won four in a row and looked like they were putting all their pieces together, it was easy to see the division slipping from their hands and falling to the Titans.

And, so, of course, last Sunday they reminded us again of how good they can be with a mostly crisp, 24-21 road victory over their nearest division rival (gamebook) (summary).  Make no mistake about it, this does give Houston a sizeable edge in the division – all the more important as it is unlikely that a wildcard team will come from the AFC South.

But nothing for this team is ever as simple as it seems.  Even in victory, there is a nagging sense that this team isn’t quite home free.

They had taken a 14-0 lead into the half, and seemed to rattle Ryan Tannehill with unexpected pressure.  Tannehill, who had led the Titan resurgence, came into the event with the NFL’s top passer rating (118.5) and leading the league in yards per attempted pass (9.82) and yards per completion (13.4).  He was also second in completion percentage (73.4) and touchdown percentage (7.4).  But he went frustrated into the locker room, having completed just 7 of 16 passes with one interception tossed on a first-and-goal play from the five (although in fairness to Ryan, that pass did ricochet off of intended receiver Anthony Firkser).  His first-half rating was just 45.6.

In the second half, while outscoring Houston 21-10, Ryan played as he had in his previous seven starts, completing 15 of 20 passes (75%), two of them for touchdowns and no interceptions.  In the third and fourth quarters, his rating was a more expected 129.6.  After a very nervous first half, the Titans of the second half looked like they were the better team.

The scenario that now allows Tennessee to win the division is fairly unlikely, and includes Houston losing in Tampa Bay while the Titans knock off New Orleans before they re-convene this rivalry in Houston in Week 17 (where the Titans must also prevail).  Even with their division title all but assured, though, this is a team that hasn’t yet earned my trust.

Bills Back in the Playoffs

Buffalo is another team that I have difficulty trusting.  Nothing about Josh Allen suggests to me yet that he can carry a team deep into the playoffs.  The Bills ride a surprising defense that I have finally bought into.  Through 15 weeks, they rank third in all of football (and second in points allowed), so the defense here is formidable.  But if they find themselves in a position where they have to come from behind late against a playoff caliber team, I still don’t believe they can do it.

In their 17-10 Sunday night conquest of Pittsburgh (gamebook) (summary), they were not put in that position.  A running game that ground out 130 tough yards and a defense that created 5 turnovers saw to that.  With his running game being inhaled by the Bill defense, Pittsburgh’s undrafted rookie quarterback Devlin Hodges was savaged by the cunning Buffalo defense to the tune of 4 interceptions – all on deep throws.  In winning his first three starts, Hodges had been exceptional at taking the short throws that defenses were giving him.  On Sunday night, he did hit on a couple of deep throws, but mostly got in trouble when trying to go up the field.

As to Pittsburgh’s running attack, the final numbers were bad (51 yards on 15 rushes – 3.4 per carry), but deceptive.  In actuality, the running game performed even worse than the numbers suggest.  The 15 rushes include two carries from James Conner that totaled 32 yards.  Remove those runs, and Pittsburgh’s other 13 carries netted just 19 yards.

The win not only put Buffalo into the playoffs, it guaranteed that they will finish as no worse than the fifth seed.  If the playoff standings hold where they are, then the Wildcard round will feature Buffalo going into Houston.

Speaking of Turnovers

In Week 14, the Los Angeles Chargers put everything together and played probably their second best game of the season as they thrashed Jacksonville 45-10.  (Their best game of the year was their Week Nine, 26-11 domination of Green Bay).

Against the Jags, LA rolled up 525 yards and committed no turnovers for the first time in four games.  On Sunday, against Minnesota, they reverted to form, coughing the ball up seven times.  It was the fifth time this season that the Chargers have given the ball away at least three times.  Needless to say, they have lost all five – most recently, now, to Minnesota by a 39-10 count (gamebook) (summary).  Twenty-three of the Vikings points came off the turnovers, and another field goal was set up by a blocked punt.  Self-inflicted wounds continue to be the theme in LA.

12-4 last year, with a win in the wildcard round, the Chargers are now 5-9.

For the Vikings, on the other hand, the game was a convincing warmup for their Monday Night contest against Green Bay.  Although the two teams go into the contest separated by just one game, the Packers currently hold a double-tie-breaker on the Vikings.  They currently hold a head-to-head advantage, having beaten Minnesota the first time these two teams met.  Even if the Vikings even the season series at home on Monday, they will still trail in the second tie-breaker – division record.  The Packers have yet to lose inside the division (4-0), while the Vikings are just 2-2 in the division (two wins over Detroit and losses to Green Bay and Chicago).

For the Vikings to switch playoff positions with the Packers, they will have to win both of their last two games (they finish at home against the Bears) while Green Bay loses both of their last two (they finish in Detroit).

I’m not sure what was more surprising.  That the Baltimore Ravens were actually flagged with an offensive holding call.  Or the play on which that call occurred.

Late in their Week Seven victory over Seattle, the Ravens were called for holding.  After five complete games and a little more than half-way through the second quarter of the sixth game – after more than 200 consecutive running plays – the Baltimore Ravens were finally flagged again for holding.  With first-and-ten at the Buffalo 49-yard line, fullback Patrick Ricard lifted the right shoulder pad of Lorenzo Alexander briefly while Gus Edwards scooted past.

Don’t get me wrong.  It was a penalty.  But over the previous five-and-a-half games the Ravens committed many infractions at least that severe without getting called for any of them.  Right guard Marshall Yanda begins almost every play by grabbing his opponent’s shoulder pads.

Faced with a very rare first-and-twenty, quarterback Lamar Jackson threw too high for his receiver and was intercepted on the next play.

But even though what must have been a record streak of runs with no holding calls has finally come to an end, Buffalo – Baltimore’s opponent last Sunday after noon – could still hope to have been better served by the officiating crew.

On the very last play of the third quarter – with the Bills still within 8 points – Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen heaved a pass up the right sideline to the Raven 33-yard line, where Robert Foster waited to pull it in.  And he might have, too.  But beaten defender Jimmy Smith came up behind Foster and went through his back trying to make a play on the ball – a process that is supposed to draw an interference penalty.  But the official standing right in front of them waved it off.

In the end, though, it probably wouldn’t have mattered.  So dominant was Baltimore’s defense that it is doubtful that Buffalo would have managed anything even with a first down deep into Raven territory.

In the game’s first half, the Raven defensive unit sacked Allen 4 times and held Buffalo to 74 total yards.  They also created one crushing turnover that set the offense up on the Bills’ 24-yards line, leading to the game’s first touchdown.  The second half featured two more sacks, while Josh completed just 9 of his last 22 passes.  The Bills last failed drive was helped along by three big defensive penalties from the Ravens that set Buffalo up with a first-and-ten from the 18-yard line.

But Buffalo never could handle the Raven blitzes, and the series ended with three consecutive incompletions to wrap up Baltimore’s 24-17 victory (gamebook) (summary).

Jackson continues to garner the lion’s share of the attention that Baltimore is getting.  I continue to maintain that the real heroes are the defenders that keep Jackson from having to play from behind.

The Patriots Feel Their Pain

Of course, when it came to adventures in officiating, no Week 14, playoff-implicating game was more excruciating than Kansas City’s 23-16 conquest of New England (gamebook) (summary).

With the rulebook allowing a coach a maximum of three challenges, there has always been the question of what happens when the same team gets screwed four or more times in the same game.  What then?

I’m not sure if that has ever happened before last Sunday, so Jerome Boger’s crew may have made history that afternoon.  The game in general was not well officiated at all – on both sides.  Several penalties were missed outright, and some that were called were mystifying.  Kansas City’s Travis Kelce was called for offensive pass interference on a play where nothing he did even approached being illegal.

But the brunt of the poor officiating was born by New England, who had three touchdowns taken away from them – two of them after they had run out of challenges.

Time to Revisit the System

Of course, the fact that it was the Patriots does make the outcome a little more palatable.  Without much doubt, New England is the NFL’s most hated team.  Moreover, over the years, there have been a great many teams that have felt that the Patriots received the benefit of a good many pivotal officiating calls.  So a little comeuppance here is not something that will be widely mourned across the NFL.

However, since something similar could happen to any team at a critical juncture of the season, I think it’s time for an overhaul of the replay system.

Recognizing the potential for disaster, here, the NFL over the years has taken significant measures to soften the three-challenge maximum.  All scoring plays are automatically reviewed, so no coach has to expend a challenge.  The same is true of all turnovers.  This, of course, applies to plays that are ruled on the field as either scores or turnovers.  If a player scores or turns the ball over and that is not how it is ruled on the field, the coach will still have to challenge.  Both of those events happened to New England on Sunday.

Moreover – and most significantly – all challenges are automatically handled by the officiating crew inside the last two minutes of either half and for all of any overtime periods.  Ponder, for a moment, the implications of this.  Inside the last two minutes and in overtime, the entire concept of a coach’s challenge is done away with.  The officiating gods who watch over the field of play simply stop play when a questionable moment occurs, and then they review it.  It is the simplest and most elegant aspect of the entire replay system.

But it is only employed for four minutes of every game.  If it were true that the only times a bad officiating call could determine the outcome of a game were in the last two minutes of the half or in overtime, that would be sufficient.  But every week the NFL demonstrates that bad calls do – or potentially could if not overturned – decide the outcome of a game at any time.  Why cannot the NFL simply do from the first minute of the game what it so easily and effectively does in its last minute?

Before some other team less hated than the Patriots gets its playoff hopes dashed by an antiquated replay system, it’s time the NFL abandon the challenge system entirely.  Just watch the game and fix what needs fixing.  Simple.

More Patriots-Chiefs

It does injustice to the game, though, to lay New England’s defeat squarely on the officials.  In spite of Boger’s crew’s best efforts to bury the Patriots, this is a game New England should at least have tied and could easily have won.  Their own decisions and execution in the kicking game doomed them every bit as much as the bad non-calls.

With 2:06 left in the first quarter and New England ahead 7-3, kicker Nick Folk had a makeable 41-yard field goal blocked.  By the time that the second quarter was half way through, Kansas City had pulled ahead 17-7.  Now the Patriots faced fourth-and-seven from the Chief 27-yard line.  But, instead of attempting a makeable 44-yard field goal, Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass.

Now, we are in the waning moments of the third quarter.  New England has just scored to pull to within ten points of KC, 23-13.  If they had gone for and made the 44-yard field goal, the score would have been 23-16, and New England would have kicked the point to make it a six-point game.  If they had made both previous field goals, the score would have been 23-19, and, again New England would have kicked.

But now, they went for a two-point conversion to make it a one-score game, with James White’s attempted run up the middle falling about a half yard short.

The game finally ended with the Patriots throwing incomplete on fourth-and-three from the KC five-yard line.  The score, at that point, favored the Chiefs 23-16.  If they had kicked the second field goal and the extra-point, it would have been a 23-20 game, and New England would have had a relatively routine 22-yard field goal to tie the game.  If they had made all of their kicking opportunities up to that point, the game would have been tied, and Folk’s potential short kick would have given them the win.

Aggression in a head coach can be a useful thing.  From time to time, though, those decisions can come back to haunt you.

And Another Thing

One more note on that fourth-down pass.  Brady was trying to throw to Julian Edelman in the end zone.  Edelman never was open.  But Jakobi Meyers was.  Edelman’s route carried him in between Meyers and Tyrann Mathieu, who had Jakobi in coverage.  A throw to Meyers would have produced – at the very least – a first down, and it is unlikely that Mathieu could have kept him out of the end zone.

One of the reasons that double-teams on Edelman and White work so well, is that Brady sometimes doesn’t trust his other receivers to make catches in critical moments of the game.

And One More Thing

At the end of the day, New England had three scoring drives – and needed help on all of them.  The initial touchdown was scored on a trick play after getting big first downs on a couple of KC defensive penalties.  The second touchdown came after a blocked kick, and the field goal followed an interception.  There have been a lot of days lately, where this offense seems incapable of putting together a scoring drive of any considerable length.

A lot of ink has been expended discussing what is wrong with the New England offense.  Most believe that the receiving corps is too thin.  While another play-making receiver wouldn’t hurt – especially if that receiver were a tight end – this is honestly not the Patriots’ biggest problem.

Always one of the NFL’s best, the New England offensive line is now among the worst in football.  They entered the week averaging just 94.5 rushing yards per game, and just 3.5 yards per carry – both figures among the worst in the league.  Additionally, they struggle against almost every blitz that opposing defenses throw at them.  Brady spends most of his afternoons running for his life and throwing the ball away.  If they cannot fix this, the receivers won’t matter.  Even if they do get Gronkowski back.

Saints Aggression Also Comes Back to Bite Them

San Francisco defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon committed, arguably, the best penalty of the season last Sunday in New Orleans.

With 4:58 left in the first quarter, Saint quarterback Drew Brees heaved a pass toward the end zone, where tight-end Jared Cook leaped to pull down.  As he returned to earth, Witherspoon rung his bell (as they say) with a shot to the head, drawing the foul.

That penalty achieved two things that eventually made all the difference in the 49ers’ 48-46 win (gamebook) (summary).  First, the head-shot knocked Cook out of the game.  In the early going, Cook was proving to be a huge match-up difficulty for San Fran.  On the field for 8 plays, Jared had caught two touchdown passes totaling 64 yards.  The 49ers now would not have to deal with him for the rest of the afternoon.

The second thing the penalty did was move the extra-point try to the one yard line.

Already up 13-7, New Orleans could have kicked the extra point and taken fifteen yards on the kickoff.  But, with the option to try the two-point conversion from the one, Saints’ coach Sean Payton couldn’t let the opportunity pass.  And when the conversion failed, the Saints spent the rest of the game chasing that point.

With one minute left in the game, Brees’ fifth touchdown pass of the game pushed New Orleans back in front 46-45.  Had they kicked the earlier point, it would have been a 47-45 lead, and New Orleans would have kicked the point here, too.  But realizing that a two-point lead at this point would still leave them vulnerable to a game-winning field goal, they were compelled to make a second two-point try.  This one also failed.

For the game, these two offenses matched each other almost perfectly.  Each team scored six touchdowns and added two field goals.  Each turned the ball over once.  While San Fran punted three times, New Orleans punted just once, but also turned the ball over on downs and possessed the ball when the first half ended.

But the 49ers kicked 6 extra points.  The Saints had only 4 with two missed two-point attempts.

If they had scored on that first attempt, the decision would have been hailed as brilliant.

How Can We Trust the Texans

One week after a galvanizing victory over their New England nemesis, Houston was pounded into submission by the 5-8 Denver Broncos.  The final was 38-24, though at one point the Denver lead was 38-3.

All along, I have been supposing that Houston would ultimately take control of the very competitive AFC South.  Over recent weeks, though, it has been clear that the Tennessee Titans have been the division’s best team, and now they have two games against Houston over the last three weeks – beginning this Sunday.

It is difficult not to see the Titans finishing on top here.

Just after Justin Tucker’s 30-yard field goal had given Baltimore a 17-14 second quarter lead, the San Francisco 49ers began their final possession of the half on their own 25 with 1:58 left and all three of their time outs.

A minute and a half later – after Raheem Mostert ran out of bounds on the Baltimore 42 yard line – the 49ers finally became serious about the drive.  But it was too late then.  After managing just four plays over the first 92 seconds of the possession, San Francisco would cram four more plays into the next 22 seconds, making a belated bid for at least a tying field goal going into the half.

The best they could manage was a 51-yard field goal attempt from Robbie Gould that sailed wide left.  Officially, Marlon Humphrey was credited with a block as he grazed the ball with a fingertip, encouraging the kick to sail wide.

The second half would belong to the defenses.  Not only would there be no more touchdowns scored, there would be no offensive plays longer than 18 yards.  The conditions were a factor, as the entire game was played in an incessant rain.  But the field absorbed the water well, and never turned muddy or sloppy.  The story of the second half was – quite simply – the story of two defensive lines and the offensive lines that tried to pound them into submission.

Baltimore came into the game having run the ball 407 times through their first 11 games – the most rushing attempts in the NFL.  San Francisco was second in rushing attempts at 371.  True to form, the Ravens ran the ball 19 times in the second half (throwing the ball just 9 times), and San Francisco dialed up 16 running plays against just 10 passes.  The game was decided in pure Neanderthal fashion, as Baltimore drained the last 6:28 off the clock with a 12-play drive (9 of them runs) that set up Tucker’s clinching 49-yard field goal that made the final 20-17 Ravens (gamebook) (summary).

The end has kept me wondering about that missed opportunity at the end of the first half.  Almost two minutes and all of their time outs is oodles of time.  The 49ers have been more than moderately aggressive all year.  In fact, their first touchdown of the game came when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw deep on fourth-and-two.  But here, they chose discretion over valor – and lived to regret it.

Lamar Jackson’s day as a running back was superlative, again.  The elusive Jackson ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on only 16 carries.  Jackson the passer fared less well, completing 14 of 23 for just 105 yards.  His looping, 20-yard touchdown pass to Mark Andrews was Baltimore’s only play of the game to surpass 19 yards.  Jackson averaged just 4.57 yards per pass attempt, and just 7.5 yards per completion.  Factor in the one sack he suffered, and Baltimore’s average running play (4.7 yards) was greater than its average passing play (4.4 yards).

In the post-game, Lamar admitted that he struggled with the weather conditions.  Fair enough.  But playoff games in Baltimore in January aren’t likely to be any better.  Just saying.

Still No Holding Penalties

In spite of the fact that Baltimore ran the ball 38 times in a consistent ran, with a quarterback darting all over the backfield, the Ravens, once again, were not called for a single holding penalty.  They were actually flagged for holding twice in the Ram game, but one penalty was offset and the other was declined.

So, over the last five consecutive games, the Ravens have run the ball 187 times with no accepted holding calls, and only two holding flags thrown their way.  If this is not already a record, it has to be getting very, very close.

Just to be clear, the Ravens do hold sometimes.  They just never get flagged for it.

What’s Wrong With the Cowboys?

On their first play from scrimmage in the second half, Ezekiel Elliott darted off left tackle for 12 yards.  At that point in the game, Elliott had 68 yards on 11 carries.  Two plays later, Elliott ran for 3 yards up the middle.  There were still 9 minutes and 6 seconds left in the third quarter, but Elliott would never carry the ball again.

On the subject of what’s wrong with the Cowboys, there are no shortage of answers.  In their 26-15 Thanksgiving Day loss at home to Buffalo (gamebook) (summary) there were the usual litany of critical mistakes.

There was Dak Prescott’s sack-fumble late in the second quarter that set up Buffalo’s go-ahead touchdown; the blocked field goal at the end of the half (one of two missed field goals); the facemask penalty on Xavier Woods that helped set up a Buffalo field goal on the opening drive of the second half; and Michael Gallup’s inability to hold on to a would-be touchdown pass at the end of the third quarter (and Prescott’s subsequent bad pass on fourth down).

In all of their losses this year, there has been a similar laundry list of mostly mental errors that have kept Dallas hovering at 6-6.  Certainly, they have to make fewer mistakes.  But let me add a couple other issues that Dallas really should address.

In the first place, their best team isn’t the team they think they are.  This references the usage of Elliott that I pointed out earlier.

Earlier this season, Prescott and number one receiver Amari Cooper had a couple of brilliant games – and now, all of a sudden, the Cowboys define themselves as a passing team with a solid supporting run game.  In the best version of the Dallas Cowboys, the offense runs through Elliott.  Two caries for Ezekiel in the second half for 15 yards just isn’t enough.

The pass-first version of the Cowboys will usually rack up a lot of yards (and the Cowboys moved the ball for 426 yards last Thursday) but will frequently struggle to convert those yards into points.

The other point – that really must be obvious to everyone now – was clearly illustrated in what I consider to be the play of the game.

With 2:17 left in the first half, Buffalo faced a fourth-and-one on the Cowboy 30.  The score is still tied at 7.  Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen fumbles the snap.  In the chaos around the line of scrimmage, Allen manages to find the ball, pick it up, and plow his way through the Dallas defense for three yards and the first down.  On the next play, Buffalo employed a piece of trickery that ended with wide receiver John Brown lofting a touchdown pass to Devin Singletary.  Buffalo would never trail after that.

In the postgame, talking about that play, Allen said “I wanted it.  I wanted it really bad.”  This has been a recurring pattern in Dallas.  The Cowboys play pretty well, but never seem to want the game as badly as their opponents do.  Thus they are never able to overcome their mistakes.

How badly do the Cowboys want this?  This is a question that will dog coach Jason Garrett, but lands on general manager Jerry Jones’ plate as well.  Jerry, I think, believes that all he has to do is sign a bunch of name players and he will automatically have a great team.  For fantasy football, it’s a scheme that might work well enough.  Putting together a locker room is more of an art form.  One that Dallas hasn’t quite mastered yet.

The Win They Needed

With Philadelphia refusing to take advantage of the opportunities that the slumping Cowboys have presented them with, Dallas’ holding on to the NFC East Division title still seems more likely than not.  For Buffalo, though, this was a very significant victory.

Long assumed to be a wild card team, Buffalo still faces a very daunting closing schedule.  They follow Thanksgiving in Dallas with a game against the unbeatable Ravens, and then go on the road to Pittsburgh and to New England.  Buffalo’s only win this season was over Tennessee in Week Five when Marcus Mariota was still their quarterback.  It’s not resume enough to make me confident in their ability to win any of these upcoming games.

They needed to find at least one win amongst those four teams, and beat the Jets in Week 17 to make it to the 10 wins they will probably need to secure that playoff berth.

This win in Dallas does that for them.  Now even if they lose their next three, a win over the Jets likely puts them in.  That Week Four victory over Tennessee gives them the necessary tie breaker.

Falling from grace will likely be the Indianapolis Colts.  Two weeks ago, Indy was sitting in the catbird seat.  They were 6-4 and commanding the division.  But consecutive losses to Houston and Tennessee have damaged them significantly.  In an AFC where you will probably need ten wins, Indy is now 6-6.  Between them and winning out is a Week 15 date in New Orleans.  Colt fans will probably look back at this week’s home loss to the Titans and shake their heads.

With Indy’s potential demise, their division will likely fall to the Houston Texans – now 8-4 after getting the big win they needed against New England.  They play Tennessee twice in the last three weeks.  If they can manage a split, that would almost certainly be enough to give them the division.

And, of course, that Houston game has other repercussions, as the Patriot loss combined with the Baltimore win makes the Ravens the new first seed in the conference by virtue of their earlier win over New England.

The most impactful NFC game was Seattle’s Monday night win over Minnesota.  That Viking loss now looks like it will give Green Bay – who is still undefeated within its division – just enough advantage to slip past Minnesota to win the NFC North.  They would effectively switch playoff places with the Vikings, sending Minnesota in as the sixth seed.

Four games to go.  I expect a few more surprises before all is said and done.

After a disastrous first half, the second half couldn’t have possibly started out better for Matt LaFleur and his Green Bay Packers.  A second-and-16 statement sack of San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo (split by Za’Darius and Preston Smith) highlighted a three-and-out from the defense.  Then, the offense that was dominated by the 49er defense for the entire first half showed its first signs of life.

A 13-play, 65-yard 8:34 drive that included a conversion on fourth-and-four and two helpful San Francisco penalties resulted in a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams on a wide receiver screen.  After the two-point conversion, the Packers had closed the San Francisco lead to 23-8 with still almost four minutes left in the third quarter.

And then – almost as quickly as hope was re-kindled – it was snuffed out again.

Less than a minute later, San Francisco was lining up with a first-and-ten on their own 39-yard line.  They came out in a three tight end set, with George Kittle and Garrett Celek tight to the formation on the left, and Ross Dwelley tight to the right.  Richie James – the lone wide receiver – was split to the right. Green Bay answered with a cover-3.  Hurt through most of the first half when they tried to play man against the 49ers, Green Bay had switched to zone defenses with the intention of limiting big plays in the passing game.

The play began as a zone run right, as all eight 49ers close to the line began blocking the nearest Packer to their right, while Garoppolo turned to hand the ball to running back Raheem Mostert, also heading to the right.  At the same time, though, wide receiver James came running, right to left, back behind the line of scrimmage, headed up the left sideline.  Unblocked on the offensive left end of the line was Packer pass-rush specialist Preston Smith.  He was hanging back, ready to play a possible cutback by Mostert.

The play, of course, was not a run.  At about the same time that P Smith noticed James racing toward the left flank, he also noticed that Garoppolo did not hand the ball off, but was booting back around to his left – presumably to lob a short pass to the undefended James, who would be racing up the left sideline.

At this point Smith realized that he could not reach Smith in time to prevent the pass, so Preston transitioned into pass defender and began a hopeless pursuit of the fleet James as he turned the corner and headed up-field.

Elsewhere, all three tight ends were headed into the pattern.  Kittle would run the deep post up the left sideline, while Celek would sustain the run action the longest before drifting over the short middle.  But the most problematic route for Green Bay was Dwelley’s.  Running from the right, Ross went about ten yards up-field before breaking back across the middle on a medium crossing route.

That route drew attention from safety Darnell Savage – who had responsibility for one of the intermediate zones.  Critically, though, it also drew the attention of safety Adrian Amos, who saw Savage trailing the route and decided to jump it.

The problem here was that Amos had the deep middle in the cover-3 defense, and as he abandoned that responsibility, he left a gaping void in the middle of the defense.

Cornerback Kevin King, who had endured a frustrating first half in man coverage, was now in a dilly of a pickle.  He was responsible for the deep left in the cover-3.  But he also noticed that Amos was no longer in his deep third.  As Kittle threatened his third of the field, King retreated to stay on top of George’s route.  When he got within three yards of King, George took a step toward the sideline before he stemmed back to the middle – a step that turned King around.  As Kevin was turning, he noticed James also racing up his sideline with Smith trailing well behind him.  King decided to keep defending the left sideline against James, hoping someone else would be over the middle to pick up Kittle.

No one was.

In a play more reminiscent of the practice field than an actual game, Jimmy Garoppolo, standing all alone in the pocket without a pass rusher in the same area code, lobbed a pass to George Kittle, equally isolated, 35 yards downfield.  King and corner Jaire Alexander made desperate attempts to catch him from behind.  To no avail.

The 61-yard touchdown pass completed a two-play drive.  After Green Bay had labored for almost nine minutes to regain the momentum and creep back into the game, San Francisco needed just 57 seconds to silence them.

Another six-minute Green Bay drive ended with a sack on fourth-and-eight, and San Francisco responded with a 10-play, 69-yard touchdown drive of their own that ate 6:31 of the clock and put a bow on their 37-8 victory (gamebook) (summary).

It was a day of answering critics for Garoppolo, who finished with 14 completions in 20 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns – good for a 145.8 passer rating.

But the night really belonged to the 49er defense, which made life uncommonly miserable for one of the great passers of this generation.  Aaron Rodgers finished his night 20 of 33 for just 104 passing yards – an average of 3.15 yards per attempt and 5.2 yards per completion.  Mix in the five sacks, and Green Bay finished averaging 1.9 yards per passing play.

In fact, of Aaron’s 20 completions, 12 of them were to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage.  The total yards that all of his completions traveled in the air (relative to the line of scrimmage) was an astonishing negative 5.  I believe the furthest downfield he completed a pass was seven yards.

The 49ers, of course, already believe in themselves.  But this was an important win for the rest of us who were a little uncertain about a defense that had given up some yards and some points over the last three weeks.  This game helps me believe in them as a legitimate number one.

As to the Packers, the loss, of course, drops them into a tie in their division with Minnesota – with the remaining game between these teams to be played in Minnesota.

But, beyond that, it may be time to face some legitimate concerns about the Green Bay pass defense.

The Packers opened the season with victories over the Bears, Vikings and Broncos during which the pass defense was outstanding.  Their first three opponents combined to complete 60 of 106 passes (56.6%) for just 671 yards, the one touchdown pass they allowed being offset by 4 interceptions.  Green Bay also picked up 12 quarterback sacks in those games.  Through three games, the passer rating against them was a minuscule 63.1.

Over the last nine games, the narrative has been much different.  In these games, opposing passers have completed 172 of 261 passes (65.9%) for 2338 yards (a concerning 13.59 yards per completion).  They have just 16 sacks over the last 9 games, while serving up 13 touchdown passes and recording just 5 interceptions – a passer rating against of 102.9.

For the season, Green Bay now allows 13.0 yards per completion – the third highest average in the NFL.  After allowing 5 pass plays of more than 20 yards on Sunday night, Green Bay has now given up 43 such plays this year – 18.5% of all the completions they’ve allowed have gone for at least 20.  That is the sixth highest percentage in the league.  Worse than that, the two touchdown passes they allowed were both over 40 yards – the twelfth and thirteenth such passes they’ve given up, tying them with the New York Giants for most 40-yard pass plays allowed.  They are the worst in the NFL as far as percentage of completed passes gaining at least 40 yards at 5.6%.

Against San Francisco they were taken advantage of in both man and zone coverages.  And the one constant in all of the big plays struck against them was Jimmy Garoppolo with all the time in the world in the pocket.

Over the off season, Green Bay bolstered its pass rush with the addition of Preston (signed away from the Washington Redskins) and Za’Darius Smith (no relation, formerly with the Ravens).  Their impact on the defense has been notable.  The Smiths have combined for 10.5 sacks, 19 hurries, and 61 pressures.

Increasingly, though, the problem in Green Bay is that no one else is contributing much to the rush.

The entire rest of the defense has 7.5 sacks, 16 hurries and 43 pressures.  Third on the sack list is Blake Martinez, who recorded his second of the season on Sunday night.  After 34 pressures from Z Smith and 27 more from P Smith, the next closest Packers are Kenny Clark and Kyler Fackrell with 10 each.

With the reminder that to win the division, Green Bay must still go into Minnesota and beat a Viking team that has been shredding opposing pass defenses recently, this is not an encouraging development.

If the Packers are going to reclaim their division, the Smiths are going to need some help.

For two very brief moments, Amari Cooper had two very big catches.

With less than two minutes left in the third quarter, Cowboys trailing by four, Cooper finally shook free of Stephon Gilmore on a short crossing route.  Quarterback Dak Prescott dropped the ball perfectly into his hands.

It had been third-and-three from midfield.  By the time Gilmore caught up with Cooper, Amari had gained 15 yards, and the Cowboys were temporarily in business with a first-and-ten at the New England 35.  A holding call on tackle Tyron Smith deleted the gain, and pushed Dallas back to its own 40 – third and 13.

Two Cowboy pre-snap penalties later, and they were punting, fourth-and-23, from their own 30 yard line.

That disappointment was a preamble to Amari’s other catch that wasn’t.

Now it’s the fourth quarter, Dallas still down by 4 and down to their last gasp.  It is fourth-and-11 from their own 25 with 1:50 left in the game.  On a drizzly cold evening, where the temperature hovered in the mid- to upper-30s, Prescott delivered a pass over the middle – placed where only Amari could get it.  It was a difficult catch, to be sure.

Cooper laid out for the pass, cradling it into his body as he descended – a catch.  A 20-yard pass play that extended the game.  Or so it seemed.  As the play was reviewed, it became apparent that Cooper never really controlled the ball, which bounced off the turf just at the end of the play.

The catch was overturned.  Cooper finished the night with no catches and two targets. The ball was given to New England, and 1:44 of football time later, the Patriots left the field with a tightly contested 13-9 victory (gamebook) (summary).

Patience is now wearing thin in Dallas – where the Cowboys have fallen to 6-5.  It is still enough to keep them in the lead in their division (and as I watch Philadelphia struggle to find anything that works on offense, I am less and less convinced that they can supplant the Cowboys, even though they are only one game behind at the moment and have the Week 16 game against Dallas in Philadelphia).

The supposition has been that Philadelphia’s relatively easy schedule and the home game against the Cowboys gives them a significant advantage.  While Dallas’ schedule appears harder on paper, it is, in fact, a series of winnable games against somewhat fading opponents.

But, while the Cowboy playoff hopes are not in grave danger yet, a 10-6 (or maybe even a 9-7) fourth-seeded team is hardly what Jerry Jones had in mind when he put this team together.

And, I understand his frustration.  Dallas is a puzzling team.  They have had their way with the struggling teams on their schedule (with the exception of a dumfounding loss to the Jets in Week Six).  Other than the Jet game, all of Dallas’ other losses have been to teams in football’s top echelon – the Saints, the Packers, the Viking and now the Patriots.  These are teams that everyone loses to.  The problem, of course, is that Jerry expected his team to be in that grouping, and to be capable of winning their share of those games.

The game itself was less than artistic, with the rain playing havoc with the passing game of both teams.  Prescott finished with a 64.2 rating on 19 of 33 passing for 212 yards and 1 interception.  New England’s Tom Brady finished 17 for 37 for 190 yards and 1 touchdown – a 70.8 rating.  But both quarterbacks threw the ball better than that.  Both saw balls slide through the hands of usually sure-handed receivers.

The game’s only touchdown – a 10-yard pass from Brady to rookie N’Keal Harry in the waning seconds of the first quarter – came two plays after a blocked punt set the Patriots up on the Dallas 12-yard line.

For the Patriots defense, this was an encouraging performance.  After dominating a series of flailing offenses to begin the season, New England was handed its lunch by Baltimore two weeks ago – enough history to raise questions about how good this defense really was.  On Sunday afternoon, against the top ranked offense (including the NFL’s top ranked passing game), the Patriot defense rose to the challenge.

Yes, the weather helped, but even without that, it was clear that the Dallas receivers were struggling to separate from the New England defenders, and even the talented Cowboy offensive line had difficulties keeping New England off of Prescott.  Dallas had moments where it looked like they could hurt New England with the run – and they finished with 109 rushing yards and a 4.2 average.  But they were just 2-for-13 on third down, and couldn’t sustain their drives.

At the end of the day, both teams followed familiar patterns.  Dallas is now 1-4 in one score games.  The Patriots are 3-0 in those games.

Colts Manage to Lose

Playing in Houston on Thursday night, the Indianapolis Colts had their opportunity to take a big step toward the division title.  Both teams came into the game 6-4, with Indy having taken the earlier meeting between these two teams.  A road win here against Houston would give them a virtual two-game lead over the Texans.

In so many ways over the course of the game, the Colts showed themselves to be the better of the two teams.  They dominated time of possession in the first half, as they ran the clock for 18:32, rushing for 70 yards while holding Houston to just 35 yards on the ground.  They continued to punch Houston in the running game throughout the second half, piling up another 105 rushing yards on 22 carries.  They took a 17-10, third quarter lead on a 66-yard drive that took 11 plays – 10 of them runs.  They didn’t punt at all in the second half.

And yet, they managed to lose the game, 20-17 (gamebook) (summary).

The glaring difference in the second half was production from the passing game.  Houston’s Deshaun Watson completed 9 of 15 for 182 second half yards – including the game-winning, 30-yard touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins in the fourth quarter.  Indy’s Jacoby Brissett was just 3 for 7 for 25 yards. The Colts gained just 130 total yards in the second half, gaining no more than 13 yards on any of their final 29 plays.

The Colts talk about Brissett as though he were a franchise quarterback.  All too frequently, though, he looks like the backup quarterback that Indy was stuck with when Andrew Luck retired.  Yes, he is playing under some disadvantage.  His number one receiver T.Y. Hilton has been banged up (he was only on the field for 25 plays), and his number two receiver Devin Funchess has been missing with an injury since early in the season.  Of course that impacts the passing game.

But other franchise quarterbacks have been asked to play with stripped down receiving corps – Carson Wentz is one – and they still manage to make the occasional big play.  Indianapolis is a very solid team everywhere you look – except, perhaps, at quarterback.

Even with the loss, Indianapolis’ chances at the division title are still pretty good.  The whole division is a scrum.  The Texans are currently 7-4, with the Colts (6-5), Titans (also 6-5) and Jaguars (4-7) all bunched pretty tightly.  No one from here is going to win out.

What the Colts have in their back pocket is that this week’s critical game against Tennessee is in Indy.  The Colts have already beaten the Titans in Tennessee this year (19-17 in Week Two).  If they can take care of business at home, they will finish their round-robin play against their top two competitors at 3-1 – and if all three finish tied (a not unlikely scenario) – that record will be the first tie breaker.

If Tennessee rises up Sunday afternoon and evens their score against the Colts, then the entire AFC South will be thrown into chaos.

Three Games to Decide the North

With the Packers’ thumping Sunday night in San Francisco, the NFC North is a dead-heat between Green Bay and the Minnesota Vikings – both now 8-3.  The Packers beat the Vikings in Green Bay (21-16) in Week Two, and are currently leading the division by that tie-breaker.  The re-match, though, is coming in Minnesota in Week 16.  With the Vikings playing much better lately, and the Packers not as well as they were in Week Two, it’s not difficult imagining the Vikings winning this game and the division crown with it.

Two other interesting games to keep your eyes on in this division.  This week, coming off their bye, the Vikings go into Seattle – always a significant challenge.  The other game to keep an eye on is the Week 17 matchup between the Packers at the Detroit Lions.  The Lions have had a disappointing season, and may not have Matthew Stafford back for that game.  But the Lions have been playing with considerable pride and have kept most of their games close.  Ten of their eleven games this year have been one-score affairs, including a 34-30 loss to Kansas City and a 23-22 loss in Green Bay.

If the division title is still up for grabs in Week 17, I wouldn’t put it past Detroit (playing at home) to upset the Pack and send the Viking into the playoffs as the number three seed and make Green Bay play as a wild card.

At our first glance at the replay, we knew the call would be overturned and the Eagles would score the game’s first touchdown.

On a play eerily reminiscent of the game-winning touchdown in Super Bowl 52 between these two teams, Dallas Goedert battled for a pass from Carson Wentz at the goal line with New England defender Jonathan Jones.  In the end zone, Jones came away with the football, and the play was ruled an interception.  For the moment.  Clearly on replay, Goedert carried the ball over the line and only lost possession after the play should have been over.  In an easy reversal, the Eagles pushed their advantage to 10-0.

And suddenly, we were worried – temporarily, anyway – about the New England Patriots.

Three weeks earlier, the defending world champs had brushed off the Cleveland Browns by a 27-13 score.  At that point, they were 8-0 and with a defense that was on several record paces.  The fact, though, was that their early season schedule was so soft that it was hard to tell how good this defense really was.

Then, two weeks before the Philadelphia game, the Patriots were slapped around by Baltimore, 37-20.  This beating was followed with a bye week for Bill Belichick and his team.  Now they were in Philadelphia, where the desperate Eagles were having their way with them.  The Goedert touchdown polished off one of the most impressive drives imaginable.

Beginning on their own 5 yard line with 7:09 left in the first quarter, the Eagles moved 95 yards on the Patriots, the drive consuming 16 plays (8 runs and 8 passes) and an eye-opening 9 minutes and 33 seconds of clock time.

Meanwhile, in their first two possessions of the game, the Patriots had failed to get past their own 40-yard line, managing just 29 yards and two first downs on 9 plays.  The Eagles chalked up 8 first downs on the touchdown drive, alone.

There was still a lot of football to play, but at that point New England was suddenly looking very average.

As unlikely as it seemed at the moment, Philadelphia wouldn’t score again.  Out of the rubble of that drive, the New England defense re-asserted itself.  The next 8 Eagle possessions would end in 7 punts and one turnover.  Their next 21 plays would earn just 34 yards.

The Patriots finished the half allowing no more than 8 yards on any running play, and sacking Wentz 4 times. After completing 11 of 16 first half passes, Wentz was just 9 for 24 (37.5%) after the intermission.

Philadelphia finished the game with just 255 total yards (a season-low), averaging just 3.9 yards per offensive play.  Thus that one drive accounted for 37% of the offense the Eagles would managed all day.

As they have done so often, New England came back to pull the game out, 17-10 (gamebook) (summary).  The Patriots opened the second half with an 84-yard drive, capped by a touchdown pass from Julian Edelman to Phillip Dorsett.  That pass (and the two point conversion that followed) ended the scoring for the afternoon with still 10:55 left in the third quarter.

In the aftermath, there are new questions in New England.  With the defense seeming (for the moment, anyway) to have righted itself, there is fresh concern over the Gronk-less offense.

In the first half of the Eagle game, New England managed just one play of over 20 yards (a 22-yard pass to Ben Watson), while quarterback Tom Brady struggled to a 55.9 passer rating on 11 for 25 passing.

For the game, Brady picked up just 216 passing yards on his 26 completions – a very un-Brady-like 8.31 per.  During that opening drive of the second half, a shovel-pass from Brady to fullback Rex Burkhead sprung for thirty yards.  It was the only play of 20 or more yards for New England in the half, and only the second of the game.  At 15 yards, the touchdown pass Edelman threw was longer that any of the passes that he caught.

Over the offseason, Tight end Rob Gronkowski retired, and ever since New England has struggled to get production from the position.  With his big game on Sunday (3 catches for 52 yards), the 39-year-old Watson now leads all New England tight ends with 11 catches for 124 yards.  That’s for the season.

In one 2015 game against the Jets, Mr Gronkowski finished with 11 catches.  In that one game.  As for Watson’s 124 receiving yards, Rob had 9 regular season games (and 2 more playoff games) that exceeded that total.  He had three games with 160 or more receiving yards.

Brady’s 97.7 passer rating from last year has faded to 90.1 ten games into this season.  Rob has also been missed in the running game – now ranked twenty-fourth in the NFL after ranking fifth last year.

So this is certainly an adjustment.  I understand about 25% of Bostonians are on a suicide watch if Gronk isn’t back in the lineup by the playoffs.

So, at this point, I think it’s important to note that this New England team is still 9-1 and currently holding the AFC’s top playoff spot.  While not suggesting that there are no issues to address, I remind New England fans that every season is a process for the Patriots.  It’s unusual that the offense should still be searching for its identity.  Usually it is the defense that takes a while to get its ducks in a row.  Last year, this New England team lost its Week 14 game to Miami 34-33, surrendering 412 yards to the Dolphins.

Two months later, they were shutting down the Rams in the Super Bowl.  Even during their recent struggles, nothing suggests to me that the Patriots are in danger of slipping back into the pack anytime soon.

Neanderthal Rams?

As for the other team in last year’s big game, the Los Angeles Rams were engaged in a defensive struggle of their own.

After New England had lost their afternoon game in Miami in Week 14 last year, the Rams played the Sunday night contest in Chicago.  They were 11-1 as they entered the contest.  The Bears were 8-4.  Both were first place teams, heading for the playoffs.

What a difference a year makes.

Last Sunday, the Bears and Rams played on Sunday Night Football again, this time in Los Angeles.  The Bears were 4-5 coming in, and the Rams were 5-4.  Neither is likely to get a playoff invitation.

Fighting for their lives, the Bears came out and played a nearly perfect first half.  They took the ball away from the Rams in both of LA’s first two offensive series.  They didn’t fumble.  They committed no penalties.  And they controlled the clock for 18:00 of the half.

They did everything but score.

They threw incomplete on one fourth down, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky tossed an interception of his own.  And, oh yes, they missed two more field goals.  The Rams went into the locker room at the half holding a 10-0 lead, on their way to a 17-7 victory (gamebook) (summary).

The blood is in the water as far as Trubisky is concerned.  11-3 last year with a 95.4 quarterback rating, Mitch has seen that rating slide to 82.2 this year on the heels of his 24 for 43, 190 yard performance Sunday night.  It hasn’t been Mitch’s best year, but it’s difficult to lay all of this game’s frustration on his shoulders.  With Ram superstar Aaron Donald dominating the line, Mitch spent the evening running for his life.  Top receiver Allen Robinson was mostly worn out by new Ram cornerback Jalen Ramsey.  Robinson finished with 4 catches for 15 yards.  A 19-yard outlet pass to running back David Montgomery was Chicago’s longest play of the night.

While it’s back to the drawing board for the Bears, the Rams, now 6-4, are still on the periphery of the playoff hunt – although their chances aren’t very good.  However that pans out, one of the most interesting developments from the game was the drastic shift in their offensive philosophy.

With an offensive line shuffled due to injury, the Rams moved from a zone run team to a more downhill, double-team, smash-mouth running attack.  Whether it worked or not depends on which set of numbers you care to look at.  For the game, LA averaged just 3.2 yards per rush, with Todd Gurley managing just 3.9 per carry.  So they didn’t exactly gash the Chicago defense.

As interesting as the new style of running was the prominence the game plan placed on the running game.  Quarterback Jared Goff threw only 6 passes in the first half, and just 18 for the game.  Gurley’s 97 rushing yards were his most since he ran for the same yardage in Week One against Carolina, and his 25 rushes from scrimmage were his most since he carried 25 times against Green Bay in Week Eight of last year.

For a few hours last Sunday night, the Rams became Neanderthals, running the ball 34 times.  Those were the second most rushing attempts from the Rams this season (they ran 36 times against the Falcons in Week 7).  Throughout the entire second half, they stubbornly ran the ball right into the teeth of Chicago’s six-man fronts – 18 running plays for just 37 yards.

Whether this is a trend they will continue will be interesting to see.  Their next game is against football’s top Neanderthal team, as they will host Baltimore next Sunday.  The Ravens currently rank seventh against the run (allowing 94.3 yards per game).  But few teams have run against them the whole game.  Two teams that did are the two teams that have beaten the Ravens.  Kansas City ran for 140 yards against them, and Cleveland tacked on 193.

Punching that defense in the nose might not be a bad strategy.

Playoff Impact – AFC

With last night’s victory, Houston earned a split with Indianapolis this season, and regained a one game lead in the AFC South.  The game carried an air of being the decisive game in the division, but I am less than convinced.  The Colts have stumbled a bit of late, with last week’s victory over Jacksonville surrounded by losses in Pittsburgh, at home to Miami, and now in Houston.

Here’s the thing the Colts still have in their back pocket.  Last night’s game was the end of their tough stretch.  In Week 15 they visit New Orleans in a game they should lose, but the rest of their schedule is very winnable.  Their remaining road games (other than the Saints) are in Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.  They also play the sometimes difficult Carolina team, but that game will be at home.

The Texans will also play in Tampa Bay, but I’m less convinced that they will take care of business there.  Houston also has a game against New England and they will play Tennessee twice in the last three weeks.  Houston is one of those teams that always seems to find a way to lose a late season game that it needs to win.

For the moment, I’m still siding with Indianapolis to win the division, with Houston taking a wild card spot from Buffalo.

The Bills are 7-3 at the moment, and should beat Denver to go 8-3.  Thereafter, though, their schedule gets brutal: at Dallas, home against Baltimore, in Pittsburgh, and in New England.  They finish up at home against the Jets, but I am not at all convinced that Buffalo can handle the brutal stretch of its season.

NFC Still Muddy

I am still hesitant to put an order to the NFC until I have a better idea of who the 49ers really are.  They have Green Bay coming up on Sunday night, and that game should give some idea about both of those teams.