Football

America’s Neanderthal Moment

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Oh, I don’t know.  Let’s begin with first down.

Two Sundays ago, the San Francisco 49ers ran 24 plays on first down.  San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw on only two of them.  Running 22 times on first down, the 9ers bludgeoned Green Bay for 134 yards – 6.1 yards a carry.  On a down where Green Bay knew they were going to run.

That, by the way, was just the first down yardage.  Across all of the NFL the average team ran for 112.9 yards per game.  The Packers ranked twenty-third in the league, surrendering 120.1 ground yards – per game.  In this game, San Francisco surpassed both of those totals on first down alone – on their way to a remarkable 285 rushing yards as San Francisco punched their ticket to Super Bowl LIV with a convincing 37-20 conquest of Green Bay (gamebook) (summary).

All of the running numbers for San Francisco were through the proverbial roof.  They ran 18 times when the Packers had 8 defenders “in the box.” They gained 120 yards on those carries (6.7 per) scoring a touchdown – they ran for four touchdowns that day.

Of the impressive statistics, this is the one that most stands out to me:

With 4:56 still left in the third quarter, San Fran faced a second-and-ten on the Green Bay 22-yard line.  Running back Raheem Mostert burst around left end nearly untouched for the touchdown that put the 49ers ahead 34-7, put their touchdown total to four for the game, and their yardage total to 304.

It was just their 36th offensive snap of the game.  Through the first three quarters, they had averaged 8.4 yards per play and a touchdown every 9 plays.  Of the 36 plays, this was the 29th run, bringing their rush yardage up to 264 – again through three quarters – an average of 9.1 yards per rush.

Back in the olden days of college football, you would see a powerhouse team – like, say, Oklahoma – line up against a lesser opponent (and the talent gap in college can sometimes be huge).  Since running the ball was king in college back in those days, it wouldn’t be at all uncommon to see the Oklahoma’s of the world rack up rushing totals of 200 – 300 yards on their overmatched opponents.

Two Sunday’s ago, San Francisco put an Oklahoma on Green Bay.

The Neanderthal Moment?

Toward the end of last season, I began documenting the rise of what I call Neanderthal football.  It was a handful of teams – led by Baltimore – that started returning to football’s roots.  These were teams that embraced the physicality of the running game.  I like the evocative term “Neanderthal” because it conveys the sense of the primordial – hearkening back to the days when the forward pass was considered sissified – almost an affront to the essential manhood necessary to compete in this arena.

The term also evokes a mindset.  If the new and exceedingly intricate passing games are like a room full of complex, high-tech electronic equipment, the Neanderthal is the caveman in the room with the club.  Paraphrasing Raven’s coach John Harbaugh after his team had battered New England, they decided to punch them in the mouth – seeing as no one had ever tried that.

Last year, two of the Neanderthal teams (Seattle and Baltimore) qualified for the playoffs.  This year’s tournament made room for two more (Tennessee and San Francisco – in addition to the Ravens and the Seahawks).  Two of the four made it to the Conference championship game, and now one – the 49ers – who averaged 144.1 yards per game on the ground, running 498 times during the regular season – will be representing not just the NFC, but a kind of new/old concept of football in the Super Bowl.  Both the attempts and the yardage totals were the second highest in football this season (behind only Baltimore).  Tomorrow all of America – casual fans included – will have their Neanderthal moment.

I, for one, applaud the rise of the Neanderthal.  This is not because I want to see a complete return to the olden days.  Rather, I welcome the stylistic diversity that Neanderthalism introduces into the sport.  Look at the fascinating contrast Super Bowl LIV will present between the Neanderthal 49ers and the high-flying pass-first offense of the Kansas City Chiefs engineered by one of the most electric young passers in the game today – Patrick Mahomes.

Clarification of Terms

In grouping these teams (Seattle, Baltimore, Tennessee and San Francisco) in the Neanderthal family, I am not claiming that their offenses are at all the same.  Only that they share a common emphasis on running the football.  All of the members of this phylum go about this process with their own unique style.  Seattle’s emphasis on the run has – as much as anything else – the goal of setting up the devastating play-action passing game of Russell Wilson.  Tennessee is, perhaps, the most old school of the teams.  Their offense revolves around pounding the opposing defense with enormous tailback Derrick Henry.  Baltimore’s running attack is speed-based.  Founded on the other-worldy running skills of its quarterback, Lamar Jackson, this is a running attack that defenses fear from the moment they see Baltimore pop up on the schedule.

Of all the Neanderthals, San Francisco is the most high tech and the cleverest.  More than the other Neanderthals, San Francisco optimizes all of its assets and schemes its way to big plays.  In particular, against Green Bay, they used misdirection in the running game to influence the defense in the same way that play-action opens up the passing game.  This was never more evident than in the two runs by wide receiver Deebo Samuel.

There is 7:18 left in the third quarter, the 49ers on their own 33 with a first-and-ten.  They are ahead 27-7 at this point.  Garoppolo extended the ball toward Mostert, and the entire defense reacted to presumed up-the-middle run.  But Jimmy play-faked the run just as he would on a play-action pass and tossed the ball instead to Samuel who was circling behind the play.  Deebo carried the ball around the left end that had been left open when Za’Darius Smith bit on the run fake.  That play gained 11 yards.

Two plays later and San Fran is on their own 46 with a second-and-eight.  It’s the exact same play, except this time Samuel is running left-to-right.  The edge was secured when wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders sealed Preston Smith inside, and fullback Kyle Juszczyk swept around the end, locked up with cornerback Tramon Williams and rode him off the field of play.  That run was good for 32 more yards.

Sanders, by the way, made no catches during the game (Garoppolo only threw the ball eight times) but made a couple of important blocks, including a bone-rattling hit on safety Darnell Savage during the first quarter.

This drive was pretty important as Green Bay had just scored.  The 49ers, now at the Packer 22, were in position to answer.  Two plays later Mostert was sweeping to the left.  When he was almost to the corner, he made the subtlest of moves – nothing more than one step really – indicating he was cutting the run back to the inside.  It was enough to pull safety Will Redman into Juszczyk’s path.  Immediately, Raheem bent the run back around the now-vacated corner and sprinted nearly untouched for the answering score.

Mostert, by the way, has sprinter speed and has blossomed this season, emerging from nowhere to become San Francisco’s leading rusher.  Through the season’s first eleven games, Raheem was lightly used.  In spite of the fact that he averaged 5.4 yards per carry, he averaged only 6.6 carries and 35.7 yards per game.  Beginning with the Baltimore game in Week 13, Mostert averaged 12.8 carries and 75.8 yards per game – averaging 5.9 yards per carry.  In this game he was the break-away back in the middle of all of the 49er ground success.  Raheem finished the contest with 29 carries for 220 yards and all 4 touchdowns.  He averaged 21.3 yards on his touchdown runs.

While the 49ers ran at will in every direction, given the difficulties that Tennessee had in getting around the corner on the Chiefs, it is worth noting that the edges were available to San Francisco all evening.  They ran 10 times around left end for 67 yards, 4 first downs, and 2 touchdowns.  They went around right end 7 times for 67 more yards.  Many times the 49ers took advantage of Za’Darius Smith.  One of the premier pass rushers in the league, Za’Darius found himself frequently beset by two of the more unique pieces in the 49ers’ toolkit – George Kittle, arguably the best run-blocking tight end in football, and Juszczyk, a rarely seen fullback.  In the era of the three-wide-receiver offense, the fullback has become almost a relic of football’s ancient past.  But the fullback in San Francisco, Kyle Juszczyk, was voted to the Pro Bowl in spite of the fact that he carried the ball only three times all year (for 7 yards) and caught just 20 passes.  He scored one touchdown this season.

But, he was on the field for 73% of the 49er offensive plays two Sunday’s ago, and was almost always at the point of attack for most of the 285 rushing yards that San Francisco racked up that evening.

The primary takeaway in all of this is that the Green Bay defense was unable to handle San Francisco in any way, shape or form.  Regardless of anything else, the Packers were probably going to lose this game.  They were just too dominated on the defensive side of the ball.

Not All Roses for San Fran

I say this because, from a 27-0 halftime deficit, the Packer offense made a game of things in the second half.  From the third quarter on, Green Bay roiled up 265 yards and 15 first downs.  Up until he threw a desperation pass for an interception with two minutes left in the game, Packer quarterback Aaron Rodgers had completed 21 of his prior 24 passes (87.5%) for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns – a 136.98 passer rating.  Green Bay scored three second half touchdowns.

Now, if you are a Pollyanna 49er fan, you have probably shrugged that off.  We were ahead by almost four touchdowns, the boys were just going through the motions, waiting for the clock to tick down.  It’s a comforting thought, but one not borne out by the game I saw.  Kyle Shanahan is far too good a coach to take anything for granted, and the 49er defense played their starters right up to the final play.

Moreover, a lot of the plays Green Bay was having success with in the second half were successful concepts in the first half as well.  But in a nightmarish first thirty minutes, the Packers couldn’t get out of their own way.

As I look over this game, I keep going back to the Packer’s fourth series, which began with 9:12 left in the second quarter.  In spite of the fact that they already trailed 17-0, Green Bay was bringing its running game to bear against San Francisco.

Rodgers caught San Fran in a blitz on first down and fired a 23-yard completion to Jake Kumerow.  Thereafter Aaron Jones ran the ball on four consecutive plays – stretch plays (mostly) where his offensive line provided him with cutback lanes that were comparable in width to those Mostert enjoyed for the other side.  On the first of those plays, tackle Brian Bulaga rode defensive end Solomon Thomas all the way across the formation from right-to-left leaving a gaping space to the right side.  That run gained 11 yards.  Then the Pack went to the left side as left tackle David Bakhtiari sealed Anthony Zettel to the inside while tight end Robert Tonyan pushed linebacker Kwon Alexander outside.  That run netted 7 more yards.

The next two runs came back to the right side.  Bulaga and another tight end, Marcedes Lewis drove end Nick Bosa inside while wide receiver Allen Lazard provided the cutback lane by taking Williams out of the play.  That run added 4 more yards.

Instead of another stretch play, Green Bay went off right guard old school fashion on the next play with a pair of double-team blocks.  Center Corey Linsley and guard Billy Turner collapsed tackle Sheldon Day one way while Bakhtiari and guard Elgton Jenkins doubled tackle DeForest Buckner the other way.  That run was good for five more yards.

There is still 5:45 left in the second and the Packers are 25 yards from making this a game again.

And then Rodgers fumbled the snap.

This began a series of three critical mistakes in a row for the Packer offense and special teams.  After San Francisco recovered the fumble, they added a field goal at the two-minute warning.  Then Tyler Ervin’s muff of the ensuing kickoff (which he recovered) left Green Bay starting from their own 8 with 1:51 left before halftime.  Three plays later, Rodgers badly missed Geronimo Allison with a pass that instead went directly into the arms of cornerback Emmanuel Moseley.  The 49ers turned that into a touchdown as well, and suddenly it was a 27-0 game.

When your defense is floundering, your offense and special teams just cannot afford to make unforced errors.  And Green Bay’s did just that at a critical juncture of the Championship Game.  The mistakes are, of course, a part of the game.  But they don’t negate the success that Green Bay was having before their errors changed the tenor of the contest.

Even more relevant was Green Bay’s second half comeback.  Down by four scores, they ran the ball very little (5 times after the intermission) and focused on the advantages they found in the passing game.  As Kansas City is a pass first team, the second half struggles that San Fran had against Green Bay are liable to be issues for them this coming Sunday as well.

San Francisco’s Defense

Seven games into the 2019 season, San Francisco sat at 7-0 and featured a defense that had allowed 7 touchdowns over the 7 games.  They were allowing just 95.7 rushing yards a game, and opposing quarterbacks were completing just 54.5% of their passes against them, tossing 10 interceptions against 5 touchdown passes.  The 49er pass rush piled up 27 sacks (almost 4 a game) and held these passers to a 58.0 rating.

As teams began to understand the San Francisco defense, they realized that what made them special was the defensive line – especially Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner.  Beginning with their Week Nine, 28-25 win over Arizona, the league began constructing game plans that would minimize the impact of the defensive line, and force the linebackers and defensive back to beat them. 

Opponents began to run the ball with more commitment, and when they threw the ball they kept more blockers in the backfield to block.  Or, noting that the 49ers run a predominantly zone defense, they resorted to shorter, quicker passes and a more ball-control concept.

The upturn in offense through the rest of the season was notable.  Over the season’s final 9 weeks, 27 touchdowns were scored against San Fran’s defense.  The run defense allowed 125.8 yards a game and 4.5 yards per rush.  Meanwhile the sacks dwindled to 21 over those nine games (2.3 per) while the completion percentage against rose to 65.6%.  The 18 touchdown passes tossed against them were offset by only 2 interceptions.  Over the back end of the season, opposing passers finished with a rating of 98.8 against San Francisco.

Green Bay did all of those to some extent, but focused principally on quick zone-beating passes.  Frequently the ball was leaving Rodgers’ hand as soon as it reached him.

Green Bay made little attempt to move Aaron out of the pocket, as he stayed there for 38 of his 42 drop-backs.  And as to pressure, in spite of the fact that he suffered 3 sacks, Aaron only saw notable pressure on 10 of those drop-backs – just 24%.

Facing zone defenses 31 times, Rodgers was sacked twice, but completed 21 of 29 passes – most of them excruciatingly short.  Of his 39 passes, 24 were thrown less than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.  He completed 23 of those passes.   That includes 9-9 on screen passes for 48 yards and a touchdown – a 125.93 rating.  Playing under very similar circumstances, Kansas City’s Pat Mahomes went 14 for 18 against the Tennessee zone defenses.

Even more interesting, in the 11 plays when San Francisco switched to man coverage, Rodgers was 10 for 10 (with one sack) for 136 yards and a touchdown.

Predictions for Sunday

I strongly believe that San Fran will have profound difficulty matching up with Kansas City’s receivers – whether they play zone or man.  In the Divisional Round win against Minnesota, Emmanuel Moseley replaced the shaky K’Waun Williams at right cornerback.  But he was no match for Davante Adams, who enjoyed a 138 yard receiving day mostly as Moseley’s expense.  Moreover, Williams hasn’t disappeared from the scene.  He is now their third cornerback, playing the dangerous slot receivers.  K’Waun played 84% of San Francisco’s defensive snaps against Green Bay.

This secondary had enough difficulty with a Packer team that had only one reliable receiver (Adams).  How they will fare against KC’s stable of explosive receivers is a concern I would have if I were a 49er fan.

San Francisco’s under-regarded offense and Kansas City’s much improved defense are about a wash in this one.  Both will have their moments.  This game will come down to the irresistible force (the Chiefs’ offense) against the sometimes immovable object (the 49er defense).  And that battle will come down to the San Francisco defensive line.

If Kansas City can’t come up with an answer for Bosa and company, then Nicky and his friends will be kissing the trophy at the end of the game.  But if Andy Reid employs some of the same ideas that Green Bay used – or comes up with a few new wrinkles – and gives his playmakers a chance with the ball in their hands, then that will bode very well for the long-suffering fans in Kansas City, Missouri.

Prediction: Kansas City 37 – San Francisco 24.

Football, Uncategorized

Tougher Than You Think

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I will admit that, at the time, it didn’t really seem like the season hung in the balance for the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans. There was still 8:58 left in the third period in what was – at that moment – a four-point game (KC leading 21-17).

As the Houston Texans had done the week before, Tennessee had opened up an early lead on the Chiefs. They carried a 17-7 lead till there were about 5 minutes left in the first half. But, as they had done the week before, the Chiefs re-took the lead on a highlight-reel 27-yard touchdown scamper from quarterback Patrick Mahomes (channeling his inner Lamar Jackson).

But, even against the frustration of blowing a ten-point first half lead, Tennessee had largely achieved the thing that they needed to achieve in the first half. They had stayed close enough to continue to run the ball.

Tennessee’s conquest of Baltimore in the Divisional Round was rather typical of the way their offense goes about its business. The NFL’s third-leading running team went into the locker room at halftime of that game having rushed for a modest 68 yards – 56 by the NFL’s leading rusher Derrick Henry. In the second half alone, Tennessee tacked on 149 rushing yards on 24 carries – 139 of the yards and 19 of the carries coming from Henry. It was that dominant second-half running game that had propelled the Titans from a 2-4 start all the way to the AFC Championship Game. With Kansas City getting the ball first, they would need to get an early stop so they could put the ball back in Henry’s hands.

There were some tense moments, as KC controlled the ball for the first 3:59 of the second half, picking up three first downs along the way. But the stop finally came when Mahomes third-and-10 pass bounced off the shoulder of receiver Tyreek Hill.

Now the Titans were on the move. They had answered with one first down, and now as they broke the huddle on their own 41 they had second down and one to keep the drive going. Henry, at this point, was going to get one, maybe two – maybe even three cracks at picking up this one measly yard.

Perception v Reality

When one thinks of the Kansas City Chiefs, one thinks of a high-scoring aerial circus – of Mahomes easily flipping football from every conceivable arm angle – of Hill burning through defenses at almost supersonic speeds. You think of the only team ever to score 51 points in a game – and lose.

Your first thoughts of the Chiefs probably won’t be of their running game. They only finished twenty-third in the league on the ground. Defensively, they finished seventeenth overall and twenty-sixth against the run, so you probably wouldn’t think of the defense first.

The perception is that the Chiefs are new-age flash and dash, with more speed and finesse than any defense can match up too. Most fans, though, wouldn’t perceive the Kansas City Chiefs as a tough team – a team capable of slogging it out in the trenches with a team like the Titans. That was the advantage Tennessee thought it had.

It is presumptuous to say that if had picked up that yard that the Titans would have won the game. There were still a myriad of different things that could have happened. But one thing that would have happened would have been more Derrick Henry runs, resulting in more time on the field for the Chief defense, and more time for the Chief offense on the sideline on a frigid afternoon in Missouri. Gaining that yard would certainly have been a large step in the right direction for the Titans.

But, of course, they didn’t get it.

A six-year, journeyman defensive tackle named Mike Pennel – who had played in only 14% of the Chiefs defensive snaps all year – penetrated through right guard Nate Davis to meet Henry head on at the same time that Frank Clark – rushing unblocked from the other side of the formation – caught Derrick from behind.

Pennel made the play again on third-and-inches, but it didn’t matter. Clark drew a holding call on Dennis Kelly, and the drive would end one play later after a Ryan Tannehill scramble came up short.

Even as Tennessee punted the ball away, it didn’t feel like the end of the world. It was a missed opportunity, but there was still enough time to believe that Henry and the running game would still be a factor. But, now, the Chiefs would get the ball, and the defense would need to come up with another stop to keep this a one-score game.

As it would turn out, Henry would never take another hand off. Given the ball back, Kansas City would proceed to take control of this game in the most un-expected of ways. They ran the ball right down the Titans’ throats.

Over the next amazing 7 minutes and 8 seconds, the Chiefs plowed 73 yards on 13 soul-draining plays – 10 of them runs. None of these were long-gainers. The longest run of the drive was an 11-yard scramble from Mahomes. It was all three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust kind of stuff.

Along the way, the team not perceived as especially tough converted first downs running the ball on third-and-one, third-and-two, second-and-three, and second-and-goal from the three, where Damien Williams slashed through for the touchdown that altered the rest of the game.

When Tennessee got the ball back, the third quarter was over. There was only 14:50 left in their season, and they were now down by eleven points. Whether they over-reacted to the situation is an argument that can be made. The result, though, was that Tennessee retired their dominant second half running attack and spent the rest of the game throwing.

Called on to carry the offense, Tannehill didn’t do poorly. Ryan was 9 of 12 in that fourth quarter for 81 yards and a touchdown – a 120.49 rating. It wasn’t enough to keep Kansas City from advancing to Super Bowl LIV, though, as the Chiefs held on to a 35-24 victory (gamebook) (summary).

The believe it or not number that emerged from this contest comes from the opposing running attacks. Eight times the Chiefs ran the ball in short yardage situations: three times on second-and-three; twice on second-and-two; once on second-and-one; once on third-and-two; and once on third-and-one. They converted the first down on every single one of those plays. In contrast, the Titans had four such opportunities: a first-and-two; a second-and-threes; a second-and-one; and officially one third-and-one. Tennessee converted just one of those.

Titan’s coach, Mike Vrabel, will be less than pleased with those numbers. And he’ll be even less jolly when he reviews the game tape. Here are a couple of mysteries that will likely keep him awake at night for the next several months.

Can’t Anyone Tackle Mahomes?

In the signature moment of the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes took the snap from center with 23 seconds left in the first half. His team was still trailing, 17-14, but Kansas City had reached the Tennessee 27 in position to at least tie the game by intermission.

With the Titan’s in man coverage, and Kansas City running three vertical routes and one deep cross, an enormous void opened up between the line of scrimmage and the closest of the down-field defenders. When tackle Eric Fisher rode linebacker Harold Landry well to the outside of the pocket, a lane opened up before Patrick that led directly into that void. With no one open downfield, Mahomes pulled the ball down and skirted through the opening.

And that is when the fun began.

Rushing from the other side of the formation, linebacker Derick Roberson would have the first shot at Patrick. But running straight across the line of scrimmage, Roberson had a poor angle and was only able to make a desperation grasp at Mahomes’ ankles at about the 32-yard line.

The man with the angle was linebacker Rashaan Evans – who had been assigned to spy on Mahomes.  Rashaan ran toward him on a trajectory that would have him dropping the KC quarterback for about a three-yard loss. But the moment before impact, Patrick gave him just a little juke – an ever so subtle feint as though he were going to turn his run up-field. It was just enough to get Evans to stop his feet ever so briefly. It was all Mahomes needed. Evans ended up lunging for Patrick’s hips. But he came up empty as he tumbled into the Kansas City sideline.

Now it was a foot race to the goal line. Nose tackle DaQuan Jones tried to establish an angle that would allow him to catch Patrick, but Mahomes outran his angle. And then there were just two to beat. At about the six-yard line, cornerback Tramaine Brock stood directly in Mahomes’ path, with safety Amani Hooker on the dead-run from centerfield, arriving at that part of the six-yard line about the same time that Mahomes did.

If he had it to do over again, Tramaine would probably not station himself so close to the sideline. Had he presented Mahomes with an opening down the sideline, he could probably have pushed him out of bounds. As it was, his position caused Patrick to turn to the inside as he tried to split the narrow opening between the two defenders. He didn’t actually make it, as Brock and Hooker converged on him. But Brock lost all his leverage as Patrick turned away from him, and, in a move that won’t gain him any votes for great tackles of the first 100 years of the NFL, Tramaine reached out as Mahomes passed him and grabbed Pat by the back of his jersey.

With a firm grip of the top part of the “5” on Patrick’s back, Brock tried to pull Mahomes away from the goal line. All he succeeded in doing, though, was spinning Patrick away from the onrushing Amani Hooker, who went tumbling harmlessly to the sideline. The final moments of this electrifying run featured Brock’s futile attempt to rip the ball out of Mahomes grasp as Pat worked his way free of Tramaine and fell over the goal line just seconds before Jones re-appeared.

It was a head-shaking moment for the Titans, to be sure. But this could be written off as one of those things that sometimes happens during the course of a game. Even more haunting might be the other question that will linger after this loss.

Can’t Anybody Block Clark?

In the days before the game, much was made of the return of Frank Clark to the Kansas City defensive line. I was less than convinced that he would be a positive addition. Don’t get me wrong, Clark is a top pass-rushing end. But those guys are almost always liabilities in the running game. I’m afraid I rather expected Tennessee to exploit that weakness. The Titans, I think, felt the same because they did test him several times. But they never beat him.

With 8:35 left in the first quarter, the Titans ran their stretch play to the right side. But Clark denied Henry the corner as he stopped tackle Jack Conklin in his tracks. Derrick was forced to turn the play back toward the middle, where he was held for a two-yard gain.

On the next play, Tennessee tried the exact same thing, with a very similar result. Clark threw Conklin out of the way, while linebacker Damien Wilson exploded past center Ben Jones. Henry managed just one yard on that run.

They tried him for a final time on their first scrimmage play of the second half. This time they moved tight end MyCole Pruitt over to Frank’s side to help secure the edge. But even with the double-team, Clark didn’t yield the corner, and Henry turned the play back inside again for a gain of three yards.

While there is no telling what might have happened had Tennessee continued to run the ball, it is evident that for the time that they did, that Kansas City was extremely disciplined in denying Derrick Henry the edges. Derrick carried the ball 19 times, clearing the left end just once (for 13 yards) and the right end just once (for 5 yards). In all other carries he was funneled back inside by a Kansas City run defense more tough and tenacious than many would have expected.

Trying to Solve the KC Passing Game

With the running attack not achieving the same proficiency that it did against Baltimore, the Titans also found that their pass defense wasn’t as effective against Mahomes and his crew. Without an obvious weakness to attack, Tennessee was left with the same dubious options that everyone has against the Chiefs – cover their receivers or sack their quarterback.

For their part, the Titans mixed their coverages, playing slightly more zone (21 snaps) than they did man coverages (16 snaps). The results were mostly predictable. The zone defenses did well enough preventing the big passing plays. Pat averaged just 10.38 yards per completion, with no touchdown passes against the Tennessee zones. But he was able to move the chains at an alarming rate, as he completed 76.19% of his passes against that zone (16 for 21). Knowing that the Tennessee linebackers would chip on the receivers going deep before dropping into their zones, Mahomes and his outlet receivers – mostly running back Damien Williams – took repeated advantage of the opening in the short zones. All of Williams’ 5 receptions came against zone coverages.

When they switched to man defenses, the easy, short passes mostly disappeared. Of the 16 snaps in man coverages, Mahomes was sacked twice and completed just 7 of his 14 throws. But the 7 completions went for 128 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The best moments that Tennessee had on pass defense were those moments when the coverage would hold long enough for the Titans to mount enough pressure to force Mahomes to throw the ball early – or throw it away entirely. This was something they managed to do with some frequency. Of Patrick’s 37 drop-backs, he faced significant pressure 15 times (41%). He was just 4 of 13 on those attempts, with the two sacks.

Pass pressure is something that San Francisco does very well, and they will view those plays with special interest.

They should be put on warning, though. The team they are about to face is not only very fast and very skilled. They are also considerably tougher than they appear.

Andy Reid

I haven’t yet made a prediction for the Super Bowl. I will want to spend a little time reviewing the 49er-Packer game before I do that. But I do have a sentimental root in Kansas City’s head coach Andy Reid.

Andrew Walter Reid has been a head coach in this league continuously since 1999, coaching 336 regular season games and 28 playoff games. He has coached long enough and well enough to have established a record as the winningest coach all time that has never won a championship.

There is a reason for this. Andy is a fabulous coach, but for the first 19 years of his career he never had that quarterback that had that super-hero gear that you almost always need if your team is going to climb the mountain.

He has had some good and some very good quarterbacks play for him: Doug Pederson, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Alex Smith. But none of them were special.

To this point, all the evidence suggests that the guy under center for Andy now is as special as it gets. This would be an excellent opportunity for Reid to get the Super Bowl monkey off of his back.

Football

Lamar Jackson Exposed?

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The party line in Baltimore goes something like this –

Hey, Lamar Jackson is a very young man (which is true, he turned 23 four days before his Divisional Playoff game).  Just look – they will say – how much he improved from his first year (again, true.  Both the eye test and the statistics bear that out).

They will then extrapolate that year-over-year improvement to project Lamar to be about the passing equivalent of Tom Brady in his prime by, say, next year.  In the aftermath of another humbling playoff defeat, I think we should tap the brakes a little on the “Lamar Jackson as Superhero” talk, and take a clear look at where Lamar Jackson, the quarterback, is now and what we can reasonably expect him to become.

The first – and, I think – most illuminating question to ask is, “what did Tennessee do to make this Baltimore game so different from the previous twelve Baltimore games?”  The answer is simply this:

They played with a lead.

While the world has been busy writing Lamar’s Hall of Fame induction speech, the most remarkable story to come out of Baltimore this season has been Don Martindale’s defense that has simply refused to let the Ravens fall behind.  Blitzing at a rate that most teams would call insane, Martindale’s defense – especially over the last eleven games of the regular season – was football’s most dominant unit.

Over that 11 game stretch – that included contests against Seattle, New England, Houston, the Rams and San Francisco – Baltimore allowed just 14.5 points and 268.9 total yards per contest.  They allowed just 14 offensive touchdowns over those eleven games – most of those coming late after the game had already been decided – while taking the ball away 19 times.  Opposing running games averaged just 94.8 yards per game, and opposing passers rated just 70.7.

Their foundational approach – which is to consistently send more rushers than you have people to block them – doesn’t seem on its surface to be rocket science.  But over the last three-quarters of the season, no one could crack this unit.  Not until the Tennessee Titans rolled into Baltimore with an idea of which blitzes they could take advantage of.

Both of quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s touchdown passes came against Baltimore blitzes – and suddenly the Ravens were down 14-0.

With the first quarter over, and down two scores, the Ravens – who ran the ball at a historical rate this year – began to slide away from the running game and began to lean on the arm and passing skills of young Mr. Jackson.

With three quarters of football left, wasn’t it too early to leave behind the running game?  I would say, yes.  But 14 points is a significant deficit, and there are some reasons why I can understand Baltimore’s decision to air the ball out – and in so doing, exposed the weaknesses still extant in Lamar’s passing game.

One factor, I will call the Derrick Henry factor.  The Raven’s running offense isn’t usually a quick-strike offense.  Over the course of the season, they averaged first in average time of possession and average plays run per drive (3:22 and 6.61 plays per).  Realizing that Tennessee would be grinding the clock with handoffs to Henry every time they possessed the ball, Baltimore may have felt that there wouldn’t be enough time for them to methodically drive down the field and chip away.

The second possible factor might simply be that Baltimore – for some reason – believed that Jackson was fully capable of bringing his team from behind using his arm as his primary weapon.

Coach John Harbaugh is one of the very best coaches in the NFL.  But if that is what he thought, he couldn’t have been more wrong.

By game’s end, Jackson would have thrown for a stunning 365 yards.  But that would be the result of an eye-popping 59 passing attempts – the results of which would also include 2 interceptions and 4 sacks – including a strip sack that set up Tennessee’s last touchdown of the game.  The soon-to-be-named MVP wrapped up a season in which he finished third in passer rating at 113.3 with a sobering 63.2 rating and – on the heels of his second consecutive playoff struggle – more than a few questions to answer.

In this story found at ESPN.com, coach Harbaugh references a meeting he has already had with Jackson regarding the improvements we should all be expecting next season from Lamar Jackson 3.0.  He, of course, didn’t share any details.  But here are a few things that I noticed from last Saturday’s game that might be on that list.  We’ll start with some of the more fixable things.

Staring down receivers: No, Lamar doesn’t do this as often as he did as a rookie, but it is something that happened on more than one occasion last Saturday.  The most damaging of these resulted in the Kenny Vaccaro interception – a play where he followed intended receiver Miles Boykin all the way to the flat.  The Titans were in zone on that particular play.  When you stare down a receiver against man coverage, usually only the deep safety can notice and adjust.  In zone, everyone is reading the quarterback’s eyes.

With 1:55 left in the first half (Baltimore trailing 14-3 at this point) Jackson had Marquise Brown tight to the end of the line on the right.  In this man coverage scheme, Adoree’ Jackson would have Brown, and had given him about nine yards of cushion.

At the snap, Jackson continued to retreat as Brown began his vertical stem, and Jackson was still about seven yards away from Brown when Marquise turned his route back over the middle.  At one point, Brown camped all alone in the middle of the field right in front of Lamar with Adoree’ still a good five yards behind him.

But Lamar was clearly watching only tight end Mark Andrews, who was having significant trouble shaking free of Kevin Byard.  Jackson looked nowhere else, until the pressure made him uncomfortable – at which time, he just threw the ball out of bounds. Which brings me to the next issue.

Missing Open Receivers:  Let’s be honest. No quarterback, regardless of skill or experience, finds every open receiver.  They all miss them, sometime.  With Jackson, it still happens with too much frequency.  And there are times where he still seems very uncomfortable in sorting out zone defenses.

The most glaring of these occurred at the 6:47 mark of the second quarter.  As Logan Ryan was drawn in by the play fake, Hayden Hurst blew right by him and found himself all alone down the middle of the field.  Lamar didn’t see him.

Two plays later, Tennessee was in cover-two, with Vaccaro responsible for deep routes to the right sideline.  Adoree’ Jackson had the flat to that side.  As Marquise Brown flew up that sideline past A Jackson for a should-have-been walk-in touchdown, Vaccaro – eyes on L Jackson – never looked behind him.  Lamar never looked at him, either.

With 13:39 left in the third, the Titans were in cover-three.  The Ravens had four vertical routes called, two up each sideline.  The two outermost receivers – Brown to the right and Boykin to the left – were all but abandoned by the defense, but Jackson threw to one of the receivers (Nick Boyle) that the secondary did settle around.

Lack of Anticipation:  There was a play that I can’t find now, so I’ll ask you to trust me on this one.  It was Hayden Hurst running a deep cross that Lamar gave up on even though it was clear that he would be open as soon as he made his break.

These are things I expect that Jackson can work on.  The problem is that to get better in these areas, you have to throw the ball more than 15 times a game.  Especially in a system that doesn’t rely much on the quarterback anticipating a route – or even reading a zone defense.  The Baltimore system is based on getting the defender to drop his coverage reacting to some flavor of play-action, and having Lamar throw the ball to the abandoned receiver.  These are things that can be practiced, but if not employed in games . . .

And then there are some things that I’m not sure can be improved with practice.  Things like . . .

Composure: Viewed honestly, Jackson didn’t sustain his focus as he tried to bring his team back from behind.  I often think this is the hardest part of quarterback play in the NFL.  Here are a couple of examples – both from the fourth quarter with the Ravens down by 22 points.

It’s first-and-ten from the Ravens’ 23.  Baltimore had four vertical routes called, with Tennessee in man, but backpedaling to keep the play in front of them – so there was lots of opportunity for a comeback route.  Lamar doesn’t even give the deep routes a chance to develop as he immediately dumps the ball off to outlet receiver Justice Hill for a 3-yard gain.

About a minute later Baltimore is first-and-ten on the Titan 42.  A similar story.  Four vertical routes running against man coverage – remember, we are trailing by 22 with 13:07 left – and Jackson immediately dumps the pass to Mark Andrews for no gain.

If Lamar were under siege, then, of course you check the pass down.  On both of these plays, Jackson had plenty of time in the pocket and could easily have waited two or three seconds to see if one of his verticals could shake free.

Accuracy: Even a bigger problem.  Far too many of Lamar’s passes are just off target.  His receivers in this game were charged with 7 drops – and, in the NFL, if you get your hands on the pass, you are expected to pull it in.  But, Good Lord at least half of the drops were on passes behind the receiver, or over his head, or some other poor location that adds unnecessary difficulty to the play.

The best example of this is the first interception – the one that slid through Andrews’ fingertips.  Andrews has been making that catch – elevating above his defender – all season.  I have thought all along that he is one of the most consistent I have ever seen in coming down with the hard-thrown pass just over his head.  He didn’t make it high enough for this one – and his sore ankle may have had much to do with that – so it could be construed as bad luck.

But here’s the thing.  There was no one in front of him.  With Logan Ryan trailing him, the next closest Titan was Vaccaro who was almost 8 yards away with his back turned to Andrews as he was busy chasing Boykin up the sideline.  This wasn’t a tight window that he was throwing into.  If Jackson had just led him, it’s likely that instead of the interception, Jackson and Andrews could have a sizeable gain.

With 13:47 left in the game, Hurst got in behind Tennessee’s Amani Hooker despite a cover-four defense, but could only watch as the pass sailed over his head.  With 1:58 left in the game, Brown and Boykin are both running deep crossing routes and end up colliding with each other.  It doesn’t matter as the pass was way over both of their heads.  On the final play of their season – fourth-and-eleven from Tennessee’s 21 yard line – Miles Boykin beats Tramaine Brock cleanly on a crossing route and is wide open at the sticks – but the throw is too far in front and Miles can only feel it slide through his fingertips.

There are about a half-dozen more examples I could cite.  Additionally, his accuracy falls off sharply the farther up-field he tries to throw.  Saturday night, Jackson was only 5 of 15 on passes more than 15 yards up-field (just 4 for 11 at more than 20 yards).  Comparing to other quarterbacks in the divisional round who trailed by double-digits at some point during their game, Patrick Mahomes was 5-9 at 15 yards or more, and 1-2 over 20 yards.  Deshaun Watson was 10-14 with a TD over 15 yards, including 7-11 at 20 yards or more.  Russell Wilson was also 5-9 at more than 15 yards – including 2-3 at more than 20 yards.

And Lamar’s problems with accuracy are even more pronounced when he tries to make . . .

Passes Deep Outside:  This was actually part of Tennessee’s game plan.  I won’t go back and cite chapter and verse here – Dan Fouts did a fine job pointing these out during the broadcast.  Some of these throws sailed out of bounds, some were short – all were late.

These are areas that I’m not sure how much better Lamar can get.  Some of these are arm-strength issues.  I don’t know if there is anything you can do to get more arm strength.  I mean, if there were exercises that could improve that, then everyone would be throwing 70-yard lasers down the field.

If he can improve his anticipation, he could throw those deep routes earlier.  That would make some difference.  But that is problematical, too – if for no other reason than it allows more time for bad things to happen (receivers falling down, defenders baiting the throw, etc).

Who Lamar Jackson is right now is a gifted, gifted runner with about average passing skills who is cocooned in a brilliant system that – as much as is humanly possible – features his skills while masking his deficiencies.  Harbaugh may eventually do this well enough that he might get Jackson that Super Bowl ring someday.  But at this point I rather doubt that Lamar will ever be a great passer.

He will certainly never be as great throwing the ball as he is running with it.  I don’t know that it’s possible for anyone to ever be that good at throwing the ball.

For those of you thinking the results of this game were just rust, the critical understanding that needs to come out of this is that the Titans expected this to happen.  They weren’t just hoping Lamar would have a rusty game.  They knew that if they could get ahead and force the Ravens to pass that Baltimore would be in for a struggle.

Oh, And By The Way

So, Tennessee won this battle of Neanderthal football teams, and I have spent the entire post writing about Baltimore.  The Titans, it seems, are headed to Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game.  How will they do?

Considering that this team has just gone into New England and Baltimore and authored huge upsets, it’s getting harder and harder to pick against them.

But the challenge they will face in Kansas City is different than any they have faced so far.  The Chiefs are the most proficient and diversified offense in football.  Where the Titans could game-plan around Jackson’s weaknesses, they won’t find any in Mahomes’ game.  Patrick can make all of the throws and read all of the defenses.  And he can come from behind, too.

If Tennessee can keep it close through the first half, their chances increase.  The second half is almost always when Henry takes off.  Keeping the game close enough through the first half, though, will be a significant challenge.  The Titans are not an elite defense.  They were twenty-first overall and twenty-fourth against the pass.  Facing an elite offense that is currently firing on all cylinders may be too much to ask of this courageous Tennessee squad.

The more I think about the upcoming Super Bowl, the more it shapes up as a contest between the irresistible force (the KC offense) against the immovable object (the SF defense).  The Packers and Titans will be greatly challenged to re-write the script.

Football

The Mistake Green Bay Can’t Afford to Make

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Yes, the game was pretty much decided by the time the Minnesota Vikings broke their huddle to line up for a third-and-one on the San Francisco 40-yard line.  There was only 2:53 left in the game, and the Viking were on the short end of the 27-10 score (which would be the final) (gamebook) (summary).  The next three snaps would be a kind of microcosm of their day.

The last time they had run the ball – and I grant that it had been awhile (since the 11:00 mark of the quarter) – they ran underneath Pro-Bowl defensive end Nick Bosa.  Modest as it was, the six yards gained on that run were the most they would have on any running play that afternoon.  Now, on third-and-one, they decided that they would run at Bosa again.  The difference here, of course, was that on third-and-one Nick was looking for the run, and easily stood tackle Riley Reiff up and dumped running back Dalvin Cook for no gain.

Quickly racing to the line on fourth-and-one, Minnesota tried the quarterback sneak – which was also stuffed.  The Vikings would get another shot, though, as San Fran had used a timeout just before the play.  On their second fourth-and-one, quarterback Kirk Cousins threw deep up the left sideline for receiver Stefon Diggs, who maneuvered around cornerback Emmanuel Moseley just enough to get his hands on the ball at about the 6-yard line before it slipped out of his arms. A second later, safety Jimmie Ward drove him to the ground.

That would be Minnesota’s last offensive play of the season, as the 49ers would consume the rest of the clock.

Enjoying the best season of his career, Cousins – whose 107.4 passer rating was the fourth best in football – led Minnesota to an excellent offensive season.  Their 407 points scored were the eighth most in the NFL, and the passing success was linked to a revived running game behind Cook, who with 1135 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, also had his best year.  Minnesota finished as the sixth-best running team (averaging 133.3 yards per game) and were fourth in rushing attempts with 476.  Counting the playoffs, they finished with 20 or more points scored in 12 of their 18 games, including 5 games where they scored over 30 points, highlighted by a 42-30 battering of Detroit in Week Seven.

I point all of this out, because you certainly wouldn’t have suspected any of this by watching them play last Saturday.  It is rare in the playoffs that a team is dominated to the extent that San Francisco obliterated the Viking offense.

For the game, Minnesota managed just 7 first downs (none of them rushing), and went 2 for 12 on third down (0-for-6 in the second half).  They were also 0-for-1 in the red zone, on their way to just 147 total yards.  They managed just 21:33 of clock time, with only 9:25 of that happening in the second half.  They were out-rushed by San Francisco 186 yards to 21.

Cousins and the passing game managed just 172 yards and an 84.3 rating while absorbing 6 sacks and numerous other pressures.

Surprisingly, though (or, perhaps not), this was the second time in four weeks that the Viking offense had been similarly dominated in a critical game.  Their Week 16 loss at home to Green Bay (with the NFC North Division title on the line) played out eerily similar (a 23-10 Viking loss).

In that game they were also held to just 7 first downs (1 of them running), went 4-15 (just 2-7 in the second half) on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone on their way to 139 total yards.  They controlled the ball for only 22:28 against Green Bay – including just 11:47 of the second half, as the Packers outrushed them, 184-57.

Cousins was sacked 5 times in that game, throwing for 122 yards with a 58.8 rating.

The underlying cause in both of these batterings was the same.  Minnesota stopped running the ball.  They had only 16 running plays against the Packers (just 5 in the second half).  They ran only 10 times against San Fran (just 3 of those after halftime).

The 49ers, of course, gave Minnesota every reason to think that they couldn’t run the ball against them.  Favorite plays that the Vikings had run all season returned little in San Fran.

Earlier in the game (before the third-down-run attempt), Minnesota had tried a couple of quick running plays that ran away from Nick Bosa.  These were plays on which Bosa wasn’t even blocked, as the Vikings expected Cook to be well gone by the time Bosa could make an appearance from the other side of the formation.

But Nick made both of those tackles after a total of one yard gained.  Minnesota hadn’t fully accounted for left defensive tackle Sheldon Day.

A former fourth-round draft choice of Jacksonville in 2016, Sheldon fell to San Francisco about midway through the 2017 season.  Not as large as some interior linemen – Sheldon is “only” listed as 294 – Day brings an above-average quickness to the interior line while maintaining sufficient lower body strength to get under double-teams.  Since the injury to starter D.J. Jones, Day has quietly carved out a larger niche for himself in the 49er defensive scheme.  Sheldon has started each of the last three games, seeing the field for about half the defensive snaps.

Last Saturday, he was a significant deterrent to what little running game Minnesota attempted.  It was Day clogging up the point of attack in both of the earlier runs that sent Cook back toward the middle where Bosa could claim him.

Mental errors by tight ends also hampered the running game.

On the game’s second play, left guard Pat Elflein left DeForest Buckner to penetrate into the Viking backfield while he hunted up a linebacker.  Buckner was supposed to be trapped by Kyle Rudolph, who ran right by him.  After Kyle had finished running the complete distance behind the line of scrimmage without blocking anyone, he glanced back over shoulder with the look of a man who knew he’d forgotten something fairly important.  Buckner, of course, tackled Cook in the backfield for a one-yard loss.

Now, at the 9:25 mark of the first quarter, with a first-and-ten at their own 21, the Vikings tried an off-tackle run.  Josh Kline pulled right-to-left from his right guard position.  Imagine his surprise when he arrived at the point of attack to find that tight end Irv Smith Jr. was also pulling (left-to-right) from his position on the end of the line.  Both would-be blockers – heading for the same point of attack – collided, allowing an easy tackle on the part of 49er linebacker Fred Warner.

By any assessment, this was not a banner offensive day for Minnesota.  Still, at the end of the day, the team with football’s fourth-most rushing attempts finished with just 10.

So dependent on the run all season, Minnesota surprisingly showed no commitment at all to the running game, even though they weren’t seriously behind until the fourth quarter.  Only twice in the contest did Minnesota run on consecutive plays.  They ran on their first two offensive plays of the game.

Then, on their first possession of the second quarter, after Cousins was sacked at the Viking 4-yard line, Minnesota called two safe running plays to avoid an end zone disaster and set up to punt.

And that was it.

This is the mistake that Green Bay simply cannot make.  They cannot afford to abandon the run and become one-dimensional.  The 49er pass rush will have them for desert.

And teams have run against San Francisco from time to time.  Three times they allowed more than 140 rushing yards in a game – losing two of those – while they finished just seventeenth in the league against the run (allowing 112.3 yards a game) and twenty-third in average yards per attempt (yielding 4.5 yards per).  In fact, the 10 rushes by the Vikings were the fewest rushing attempts any team has made against San Francisco this season.

Even if the Packers (who averaged a healthy 4.4 yards per rush this season) don’t enjoy great early success on the ground against San Fran they have to keep trying.

The Packers, themselves, never really established a true offensive identity.  On their way to placing eighteenth in total offense, Green Bay finished seventeenth passing and fifteenth rushing.  Their approach saw them generally sticking with whatever was working that day.  They had 5 games in 2019 where they ran for more than 140 yards.  But they also had 6 games when they ran the ball fewer than 25 times.

In all honesty, whatever their approach the Packers will be hard pressed to sustain much offense against the refreshed 49er defense.  Their only significant advantage on offense stems from the fact that San Francisco’s all-world cornerback Richard Sherman doesn’t change sides of the field.  He will camp the entire game on the offensive right side – meaning that the Packers can avoid having Sherman shut down their only reliable receiver (Davante Adams) by simply lining him up on the other side of the formation.

This will allow Green Bay a few shot plays, but won’t keep them on the field or keep San Francisco’s offense on the sideline.

For that, they will need their running game.

And a healthy dose of luck.

Football

Two Questions Following the Titans’ Conquest of the Patriots

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The pass game and the run game support each other in so many ways that it is difficult to quantify the impact that each has on the other.

The Tennessee Titans began last Saturday’s contest in New England with a 12-play, 75-yard drive that ate up 6:58 of the first quarter clock.  Coming into the game with the NFL’s third most prolific running attack – backboned by the NFL’s leading rusher – The Titans played nearly the entire first drive with three tight-ends on the field.  Although this is a pronounced running formation, the Patriot defense’s respect for the Tennessee passing attack was such that they responded to these formations with a standard 4-3 defense and two deep safeties.

This provided an edge that Tennessee took full advantage of, as running back Derrick Henry chewed up 49 yards on 7 carries.  He did the heavy lifting in a drive that produced the touchdown that gave Tennessee a temporary 7-3 lead.

The Patriots responded quickly to the problem, switching to a 3-4 defense, replacing Deatrich Wise with Jamie Collins.  They also began dropping secondary players toward the line.

This strategy enjoyed a brief success, as Tennessee went three-and-out on its next two possessions, with Henry held to 4 yards on 2 carries.

So Tennessee responded just before the half by playing two wide receivers and just two tight ends.  Two tight ends is still a strong run formation, and in previous versions of the Titans might have had no impact on the Patriots.

But the reborn Tennessee passing attack – featuring the NFL’s top rated passer – is increasingly impossible to ignore.  Ryan Tannehill finished 2019 with a 117.5 passer rating.  His 70.3% pass completion percentage didn’t come by virtue of a series of dump-off passes either.  Ryan also led the NFL in yards per completion (13.6) and yards per attempted pass (9.59).

So when the Titans introduced a second wide receiver, the Patriots responded with five defensive backs.  That was the personnel grouping they were in when Henry broke a 29-yard run off of right tackle – the first play of a 7-play, 75-yard drive that consumed most of the last 2:16 of the half.  Henry carried 4 more times in that drive for 24 yards – including the last yard for Tennessee’s last offensive score of the game.

This was the beginning of the chess match between Bill Belichick and Titans’ OC Arthur Smith.  Throughout most of the second half, New England returned to the formation that frustrated the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl – a 6-1 that was really four down-linemen with a linebacker wide to each side and one linebacker roaming the middle.  The intent here was to defend the edges – which they did with great effectiveness.

But sending Henry back up the middle didn’t stop the Tennessee running game.  It just slowed them down.  Instead of ripping off 7 to 12 yard bursts, the Titans wore down New England under a series of 3-to-6 yard body blows.  After gaining 106 yards on 14 carries in the first half, Henry ground out 76 second half yards on 20 grueling second half runs – allowing Tennessee to run the clock for 19:42 of that last half.

For the game, it was another sizeable rushing performance by Henry.  Derrick finished the evening with 182 yards on 34 carries.  He was the engine that fueled the Titans’ 20-13 WildCard victory over the defending champions from New England (gamebook) (summary).

Wither the Patriots

In the aftermath of this win that apparently caught everyone but me by surprise, there are the expected questions about the Patriots.  Is that it for the dynasty?  Is Tom Brady finished?

Well.  Every dynasty does, eventually, end.  And some day Brady will – in fact – have to yield to age and mortality.  Those days may not necessarily be upon us yet.

Clearly, New England and Brady took steps backwards this year.  The 420 points they scored was their fewest since they managed 410 in 2008.  That, of course, was the year that Brady missed and Matt Cassel quarterbacked the team.  The Pats also finished fifteenth in total offense – their lowest in 16 years.

As for Brady, his 60.8% completion percentage was his lowest in 6 years, his 24 touchdown passes were his fewest (in a full year) since 2006, his 3.9% touchdown pass rate was the lowest of his career, his 10.9 yards per completion was his lowest since 2002, and his 88.0 rating was his worst since he rated 87.3 in 2013.

Far too often in sports you are only as good as your last game.  Exercising a bit of memory is frequently more effort than fans and sports writers want to expend.  There are some things that need attention in New England, but the future isn’t as black as it no doubt appears to some of the faithful.

About 80% of everything wrong in New England can be fixed by fixing the offensive line.  Over the long history of the New England dynasty, the Patriots have had to rebrand themselves several times depending on the skill sets of the roster at any given time.  Throughout all these re-inventions, the Patriot offensive line was always ready to enable whatever offensive focus the team decided to embrace, from power running to short passing game.  Without any exaggeration, the most underappreciated aspect of the New England dynasty has been the consistent excellence of its offensive line.

More than any other part of the team, the line drastically underperformed this season.  There was never a running game to turn to, as there were never holes to run through.  New England finished 18th on the ground this year (106.4 yards per game) and 25th in yards per carry at a struggling 3.8.

On the pass blocking side, Brady finished as the fifth hardest quarterback to sack as he went down on just 4.2% of his dropbacks.  That number belies the struggles his line had in pass protection.  A frequent sight in any New England game this season was Brady flinging the ball into the dirt to avoid a sack.

This year, football reference has been tracking – among other things – passes thrown away.  To no one’s surprise, Brady led the league in that dubious category, his 40 throw-away’s being almost a third more than the next closest quarterback (Aaron Rodgers threw away 31).  Brady only tossed away 22 passes last year.

At no time was the offensive line’s shortcomings more apparent – or more costly to the team – than on the goal line situation that provided the turning point of the game.

With a little more than five minutes left in the first half, a 12-yard pass from Brady to Rex Burkhead gave the Pats a first-and-goal at the one yard line.  Running back Sony Michel lost a yard on a first-down carry.  Burkhead gained that yard back on a second-down run.  Then Michel lost two more yards running on third down.  Then Nick Foles kicked the field goal.

This kind of futility is never seen in New England.  Not until this year, anyway.

Yes, their receivers didn’t get the separation they have in the past, and there was almost zero production from the tight end spot (in the absence of Rob Gronkowski).  But the season long headache in New England was a poor offensive line.

The Patriot dynasty will end one day.  But as long as Belichick and Brady are still wearing Patriot blue, New England will never be more than a tinker away from their next Super Bowl run.

Can the Titans Do It?

The other question that deserves a look concerns the prospects of the Titans authoring another upset tonight in Baltimore.  Can Tennessee take down the seemingly unbeatable Ravens?

Yes, I believe they can.  But it won’t be easy.  There are a couple of enormous challenges that any opponent of Baltimore faces.

First, of course, is Lamar Jackson.  Almost every team has difficulties with him the first time they face him.  His quickness is nearly impossible to simulate in practice.  Most teams play much better the second time around against Lamar, but his athleticism is an extreme shock the first time you line up against him.

But, while Jackson garners most of the attention, I believe the more remarkable story (and challenge) is the Baltimore defense.  After allowing 96 points in consecutive games against Kansas City, Cleveland and Pittsburgh in Weeks Three through Six, the Baltimore defense has become inviolable.  Over the last 11 games of their winning streak, Baltimore is yielding just 14.5 points, 16.5 first downs, and 268.9 total yards – including just 174.1 passing yards – per game.

Along the way, they have accounted for 19 turnovers, while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56.3% of their pass attempts while struggling to a 70.7 passer rating against them.

The secret sauce here is the blitz.  Baltimore comes at you from all over at the highest rate of any team in the NFL.

If Tennessee can’t come up with an answer for the Baltimore blitz, they will be in for a long evening.

The way I see this game, the first half will tell the story.  If the Titans can get out in front by ten or more points, it will be difficult for Baltimore to keep running throughout the second half – especially with Tennessee being all too willing to drain the clock with their own running game.  This could force the Ravens into a situation where they will have to rely on Jackson’s passing skills.  For the record, Lamar has never overcome a deficit of more than seven points to lead his team to victory.

On the other hand, if the Ravens take a nice lead into the second half, they will be nearly uncatchable.  They will continue to grind the clock with their running game and the Raven pass rushers will pin back their ears and come full speed for Tannehill – who will be forced to take on a larger role as Tennessee won’t be able to use Henry as much as they would like.

And if the first half ends more or less even, then we’ve got a coin flip.  It will depend on which defense wilts under the pounding of the other team’s sledge-hammer running game first.

The Titans have a significant (but not impossible) challenge ahead of them.

Football

Bills Defense No Match for Watson’s Magic

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It had been almost exactly a year before.  The playoffs following the 2018 season began in Houston on January 5, 2019.  Coming off an 11-5 season that saw them win the AFC South, the Texans welcomed the Indianapolis Colts.

By halftime, the Texans trailed 21-0, on their way to a 21-7 loss.  The Colts had rolled up 85 rushing yards by halftime, on their way to 200 rushing yards.  Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson had managed just 90 passing yards.  He would finish his first playoff game completing 29 of 49 passes for just 235 yards (just 4.8 yards per attempted pass), with only one completion accounting for as many as 20 yards.

With deep threat Will Fuller on the sidelines, star receiver DeAndre Hopkins was getting extra attention from the Colt defense.  He finished that game with just 5 catches for 37 yards.

But that was last year.

Fast forward to January 4, 2020.  Again, the Texans had won their division (they were 10-6 this year), and again they would host the very first playoff game, spreading out the welcome mats for the Buffalo Bills – a team making only its second trip to the playoffs in a couple of decades.  Surely, things would be better this time around.

And they were.  Instead of a 21-0 deficit, Houston went into the locker room trailing just 13-0.  The Bills had rolled up an even 100 rushing yards, while sacking Watson 4 times and limiting him to just 49 passing yards, none longer than 11 yards – the Texans managed just 4 first downs and 81 yards of offense during that first half.

Yes, Fuller was out of the lineup again, and Hopkins – seeing coverage from Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White – was off to another tenuous start.  At the half, DeAndre was still looking for his first reception.

You will forgive the Houston faithful for feeling that they had seen this game before.

But things were about to get worse.

Not quite five minutes into the second half, Hopkins caught his first pass pf the game – and promptly fumbled it, giving Buffalo possession on Houston’s 38.

With 6:46 left in the third quarter, Buffalo sat on Houston’s 12-yard line with a third-and-eight.  They were one intermediate pass play away from sealing the home team’s fate.

A Legend Returns

Toward the end of October, Houston’s playoff future took a sizeable hit, when the Texans’ faithful learned that five-time first-team All Pro and three-time defensive player of the year J.J. Watt’s season would end early for the third time in the last four years.  The great J.J. had sustained another pectoral tear.

But reports of his demise would turn out to be somewhat exaggerated.  As the season wound down and the Texans were making their playoff push, Watt made it known that he believed he could be back on the field for the start of the playoffs – and true to his word, there he was.  In body, anyway.

To this point of the game, his production had been about what one might have expected from a player who had missed ten weeks.  Thirty-eight and a half minutes into the first Wildcard playoff game, Watt had 0 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 pressures – 0 anything.  Until this moment, with the season flickering in the wind.

That Moment

On this third-down play, Watt shot around Buffalo tackle Chris Clark before he could blink.  Josh Allen had just enough time to take the snap and look up before he was crushed for an 8-yard loss.  The home crowd – starving for something to cheer about – erupted.  Buffalo would still add the field goal that made the score 16-0.  Now, with the third quarter winding down, it would be up to Watson and the offense.

On cue, Deshaun lead the offense 55 yards in 7 plays, bringing them to a third-and-eight at the Buffalo 30.  The seasons of these two teams would pivot sharply on the next two plays.

On third-and-eight, the Bills blitzed from the edges, with Micah Hyde pouring in from the offensive right, and Matt Milano circling around from the left.  Both blitzers would get home.

Running back Duke Johnson tried to pick up Hyde, but Micah ran right through him, pushing Johnson back into Watson’s lap. Milano had it much easier, as no one blocked him.  Left tackle Laremy Tunsil had every opportunity, but was so focused on Jerry Hughes’ inside stunt that he didn’t even see Milano sprinting into the backfield behind him.  Both would end up hitting Watson, but they would be too late as Deshaun got the throw off less than a second before the contact came.

With extra rushers coming, White – in single coverage on Hopkins, in a close split to the right of the formation – took an inside position and backed off about seven yards.  He retreated even more as the play began – responding to DeAndre’s vertical stem – until Hopkins had pushed him past the first-down marker.  At this point, Hopkins cut to the sideline to receive Deshaun’s perfect pass.

With the first down secured, Deshaun faked a handoff to Carlos Hyde into the center of the line, causing an involuntary step to the right on the part of the entire defense.  Watson then pulled the ball in and sprinted around right end.

With Hopkins shielding off White down the sideline, and fullback Cullen Gillaspia throwing a sealing block on Buffalo’s Hyde to set the edge, an alley opened up for Watson as he sped toward the goal line.

He got as close as the six-yard line before Jordan Poyer plowed into him.  Defensive end Trent Murphy jumped on the backs of both at the five.  Micah Hyde finally showed up at the one – but it was, for Buffalo, an exercise in futility.  Watson was not to be denied, as he dove over the goal line, dragging Buffalo Bills with him.  It was the first of two “magical” Deshaun Watson plays that would decide the contest.

Yes, Watson.  The game was definitely afoot.

These were the first of 19 consecutive points that Houston would score, sending them briefly ahead, 19-16.  A late drive by Buffalo led to a tying field goal with five seconds left, and the game was headed to overtime.

A Little Overtime Magic

After each team held the ball for one fruitless possession, Houston began the final drive of the game from their own 17 with 9:02 left in (what would turn out to be) the only overtime session.  Less than five minutes later, Watson would turn in the play that this game will be remembered for.  Actually, though, the Bills lost this game four plays earlier.

Again, it would be a third-down opportunity gone awry.

There is 6:56 left in the period.  The Texans were still backed up on their own 19, facing a third-and-eighteen.  Any kind of stop here – and third-and-18 is about as comfortable a defensive position as one can hold – probably gives the ball back to Buffalo somewhere near midfield.

Playing almost a prevent defense, Buffalo backed six defenders to about the 40-yard line, leaving a 20-yard gap between the four pass rushers and the rest of the defense.  Circling out of the backfield, Duke Johnson found himself all alone as he gathered in Watson’s short pass – after which, of course, he began to streak immediately toward the first-down sticks, running headlong into the converging Buffalo defense.  The two forces met at about the 30-yard line, two yards short of the line to gain.

At that point, Duke picked a spot about equidistance between Tremaine Edmunds and Siran Neal, hitting that small gap with enough force to plow through those two gentlemen for the final two yards needed to sustain the drive.

Let’s be honest.  When the other guy converts a third-and-eighteen against you, you don’t deserve to win.

Four plays later, Houston is facing a second-and-six on Buffalo’s 44.  Into the game for Houston came a sixth offensive lineman (Roderick Johnson) to add to the pass protection.  Buffalo responded by rushing seven.  Coming off the corner un-blocked was Neal, who stormed unabated toward his target.  On the other side, Roderick Johnson’s attention was divided between Milano (again) and Murphy, allowing Milano to skirt rather easily around him.  He, too, was speeding towards Watson.

Neal arrived first, hitting Watson squarely in the back.  It was a twisting blow that forced Deshaun’s back foot off the ground and tilted him severely to the right.  Without any doubt, Watson would have gone down had that been the only blow sustained.  But before Deshaun could fall, Milano arrived and hit him from the same side – his right – that he was about to fall to.  Milano’s hit was exactly what Watson needed to stabilize him.  At the same time – like a human physics experiment – the energy from the two would-be-tacklers transferred through Watson’s body to each other, leaving Deshaun standing upright, while Neal and Milano ended up on the turf.

Now, Deshaun was rolling out of the pocket to the right when he looked up and happened to see running back Taiwan Jones standing all alone along the right sideline.

Taiwan Who?

Taiwan Jones had been the 125th pick in the 2011 draft, going to Oakland where he spent six unremarkable seasons.  He spent the next two seasons (2017-2018) in equal obscurity in Buffalo.

Now 31 years old, he drifted to Houston this year, where he was seen almost exclusively on special teams (the same role he had held in Oakland and Buffalo).  His only previous offensive action this season came in the meaningless Week 17 loss to Tennessee.  Jones had his only 9 carries and caught his only pass of the season in that game.

In the Wildcard game, he somehow managed to see the field for two offensive plays – one of them the biggest play of the season so far for the Texans.

His presence of the field put safety Micah Hyde in a quandary.  Jones lined up wide right, and Hyde lined up opposite him.  Jones was clearly his responsibility.  But, near to the line to that side was Hopkins – who had been getting the better of White for most of the second half.

With extra rushers coming, Hyde was obviously concerned about Hopkins.  Even as the play started and Micah began to retreat, he had his eyes on Hopkins.  DeAndre quickly got outside position on White, and began hurtling up-field.  Seeing this develop, Hyde abandoned Jones and provided tight inside-outside coverage on Hopkins.  Which was all well and good, but . . .

Seven or so yards up field, Jones stopped and settled into the right flat.  Noticing this, Hyde dropped his coverage of Hopkins.  The problem was at this point he was a good ten yards away from the man he was supposed to be covering.  For about three agonizing seconds Micah stood in no man’s land, no longer covering either receiver as Watson was rolling out of trouble in the pocket.  At about the same instant that Watson noticed Jones, Hyde came to get him at top speed.

The rest would be for the highlight reels.

Hyde was still nine yards away when Jones caught the ball and easily eluded Micah.  Before him was a whole lot of green – at least for the next 34 yards.  The next play would be the field goal that ended the contest, 22-19 Houston (gamebook) (summary).

More Watson

The magical plays will retain most of the attention from this game.  I am more impressed with the rest of Watson’s performance than with those two plays.

Deshaun belongs to that breed of improvisational quarterbacks who are most dangerous out of the pocket.  One of Buffalo’s defensive objectives would surely have been to keep Deshaun in the pocket – and they managed this with great success.  The two big plays described were about the only times Deshaun escaped contain.  The rest of the game, Buffalo was very disciplined in keeping Watson in the pocket.

And that is where he beat them from.

Throughout the game, Buffalo presented Deshaun with shifting defensive looks, mixing in healthy doses of blitz (the Bills blitzed on exactly one third of Watson’s dropbacks – 13 of 39).  The challenge was for Deshaun to process the defense and make the correct throw before the pressure got home.

And the pressure was significant.  When he wasn’t missing stunts, tackle Laremy Tunsil was pushed around by Jerry Hughes, who recorded 3 of Buffalo’s 7 sacks.  Deshaun was also forced to scramble 7 times.  The Houston offensive line was far from dominant – a concern as they prepare for Kansas City.

But when Watson did have a chance to read the Buffalo defense, he did so with exceptional success.  Here are a couple of examples.

With 2:48 left in the first quarter, Buffalo gave Watson a pre-snap blitz look, with two linebackers in the A-gaps.  At the snap, the potential blitzers backed into cover-2.  But before Lorenzo Alexander could find his zone, Deshaun deciphered the defensive intent and completed an 11-yard pass to Darren Fells.

Later, in the third quarter, the Bills tried the reverse, showing cover-2, but morphing into a blitz.  Again, Watson analyzed the situation quickly.  Lining up in the secondary to give the cover-2 look, Micah Hyde actually had man coverage on DeAndre Carter – split off to the left.  Realizing that Hyde couldn’t get over to Carter’s flat route in time, Watson was throwing the ball to DeAndre almost as soon as Hyde was moving toward him.

For the game, Watson completed 20 of 25 for 247 yards and a touchdown – a 121.2 passer rating.  He was 8 for 10 for 144 yards when Buffalo blitzed, and 12 for 15 for 103 yards and the touchdown when they didn’t.

It bears pointing out that throughout the season, Buffalo maintained one of the NFL’s elite pass defenses.  Opposing passers managed just a 78.8 rating against them – third best in football – and the 9.8 yards they allowed per completion was the second best figure in the league.  Last Saturday afternoon, Mr. Watson answered a significant challenge.

This is how good Deshaun can be.  The question, now, is can he – and the rest of his Houston teammates – be this good on consecutive weeks.  Sustaining their high level of play has been a season-long struggle for this team – and things won’t get any easier as they now travel to Kansas City.

Kansas City is something of an enigma, itself.  They are a high-powered offense that can run the ball when they remember to.  Defensively, they started off poorly.  Through their first ten games, opposing passers rated at 92.9.  They showed a decisive vulnerability against the run – yielding 148.1 yards a game, 5.1 yards per rush, and 12 rushing touchdowns.  Seven of their first ten opponents scored at least 20 points against them, with four of them scoring at least 30.

During the six-game winning streak that they closed the season with, the Chiefs gave twenty points only once – allowing a total of just 69 points in those games.  The last six quarterbacks they’ve faced have thrown 5 touchdowns against 10 interceptions as part of a 63.5 rating.  Meanwhile running success has dropped to 95 yards per game and just 2 rushing touchdowns given over those games.

Of course, these teams in general (Chargers, Raiders, Patriots, Broncos and Bears) have been given to offensive struggles, so it’s difficult to say how improved the defense really is.

Can Houston beat the Chiefs?  Well, they actually did back in Week Six – and in Kansas City no less.  The Texans ran for 192 yards in that game.  The question is, can they approach that again?

I still have a hard time trusting Houston, so I will be surprised to see them win this game.  But they certainly have the talent to get it done.

Historical Note:

The most famous NFL matchup between Houston and Buffalo came on January 3, 1993 – 17 years ago.  That was the greatest comeback in football history as Buffalo erased a 35-3 third quarter lead on its way to a 41-38 conquest of the Houston franchise (then, of course, they were the Oilers – the franchise that has become the Tennessee Titans).  As all-time comebacks go, the Texans’ 16-point comeback on Saturday pales in comparison to the one authored Frank Reich all those years ago.  But for now, the Texans will count it as partial payback.

Football

Road Teams Advance in NFC

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About five and a half minutes.

The Philadelphia Eagles seemed to be playoff longshots through Week 13.  Coming off their Week 10 bye, the Eagles lost three in a row – the last to the Miami Dolphins.  At that point they sat at 5-7 for the season, but still only one game behind their division rivals from Dallas.  Since one of Dallas’ six wins was a 37-10 clobbering of Philadelphia in Week Seven, Dallas’ lead was really two games with four games left.

To that point, the Cowboys were also 4-0 in the division, and held that tie-breaker as well (the Eagles were 1-1).

Philadelphia’s one ace in the hole was that their Week 16 re-match would be in Philadelphia, but in reality they knew that they would have to win out – including the Dallas game – and the Cowboys would have to drop a winnable game somewhere in these last four contests.

Other than Dallas (and perhaps including the Cowboys), the Eagles’ closing schedule wasn’t all that formidable – two games against the Giants and one against the Redskins.  But Dallas’ remaining schedule was also a little soft.  In addition to the Eagles, Dallas had the Bears, Rams and Redskins.

But a Week 14 loss to Chicago completed Dallas’ own three-game losing streak, and put the division clearly on the line in Philadelphia three days before Christmas.  The game wasn’t necessarily an artistic success, but the defense rose to the occasion, closing down Dallas’ running game and sending the Eagles on to the playoffs with a 17-9 victory (a curiously recurring score for the Eagles this year).

And so, three days into the new year, the improbable Eagles were hosting a playoff game.  After all the sound and fury of the chase, their opportunity to advance more-or-less evaporated about five and a half minutes into the game.

The Injury

Beginning their second series on their own 25 with 9:41 left in the first quarter, quarterback Carson Wentz play-faked to running back Miles Sanders and dropped back into the pocket.  But none of his receivers managed any early separation, and as the pocket began to crumble, Carson rolled to his right.  Seeing the movement, cornerback Bradley McDougald came crashing down on Wentz.

Realizing he wouldn’t have time to throw this pass, Carson pulled the ball back down and tried to duck inside of McDougald (taking a step back toward the rush).  Bradley didn’t miss the tackle, tripping Carson up while he was trying to get by him.  As Wentz began to go down, Jadeveon Clowney – in pursuit – was leaving his feet (also trying to bring Wentz down).  Clowney would tumble over Wentz in what appeared to be a harmless contact.  Chris and Al – calling the game on NBC – cut away to show a replay of the field goal attempt that Philadelphia had just blocked.  Meanwhile Wentz finished out the series, gaining a first down and moving Philly as far as their own 36-yard line before they were compelled to punt the ball away.

The Eagles have been in the playoffs, now, for three consecutive seasons – winning it all two seasons ago.  In both of the previous two years, Wentz could only watch from the sidelines.  Finally, Carson (Philly’s franchise quarterback) was making his playoff debut.  And after two series, it was over.  On the play in question, Clowney’s helmet collided with the back of Wentz’ helmet, driving his head forward into the turf.

And just like that, the Eagles were playing playoff football again with their backup quarterback.  This time, though, it wasn’t Nick Foles (who had gone 4-1 in the previous two playoff runs).  Nick had moved on to Jacksonville.  The season now belonged to 40-year-old Josh McCown (who was also making his playoff debut).  In his seventeenth season – mostly as a backup – Josh brought a 23-53 record as a starter, along with a 79.7 career passer rating into the contest.

The Attrition Bowl

If you were going to predict that an injury would play a critical part in any of the wildcard games, you might have expected it would be this one.  Seattle came into the contest missing – among others – all of their top three running backs, two starting offensive linemen, and a starting linebacker.

The Eagles also were missing two starting offensive linemen, and all of their playmaking wide receivers (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor).  Starting running back Jordan Howard dressed for the game, but never saw the field.

Whoever would walk away from this one, would go limping into the division round.  And, although they were mostly outplayed by Philadelphia, that team – thanks mostly to Wentz’ injury – will be Seattle.

McCown

It’s difficult to pin this defeat on Josh, who came off the bench and did better than anyone could have expected.  McCown was 12 for 15 in the second half, throwing for 147 yards.  He looked as good throwing the ball as the numbers suggest, and brought the home crowd to its feet with an 11-yard first-down scramble in the first half.  His passer rating for that second half was 109.6 – arguably as much as they might have expected from Wentz.

Behind Josh in the second half, the Eagles chewed up 195 yards of offense and 13 first downs.  They controlled the ball for 19:13.

At the same time, though, they were 1-5 on third down, 0-2 on fourth down, and 0-3 in the red zone.  They also turned the ball over on downs just outside of the red zone on their next to last possession.  McCown played admirably.  It is, however, reasonable to expect that Carson would have coped better on third and fourth downs and in the red zone.  On Philly’s last offensive play of the season, McCown saw a clear rushing lane to the end zone (by the way, he has 13 career rushing touchdowns).  But at 40 years old, McCown couldn’t navigate those last 10 yards.

In a one-score game, all Philly would have needed was one play from Carson.

That score – by the way – was 17-9, the same score they beat Dallas by, and the same score they lost to Seattle by the first time these two teams met (gamebook) (summary).

For the Eagles, it was a frustrating end to a difficult season.  It seems they have spent the last two seasons paying for the good fortune of 2017.  They will take some positives into the offseason – particularly their defense.  After finishing the season tenth overall and third against the run, the Eagles mostly dominated the Seattle offense – especially the running game.

Seattle came into the game just behind the Ravens, 49ers and Titans in rushing yards.  The final numbers (64 yards on 26 rushes) don’t begin to tell the story.  Forty of those yards came on two long scrambles from quarterback Russell Wilson.  Subtract those, and Seattle’s other 24 running plays totaled 24 yards.

Seahawk Issues

It’s difficult to say that the missing running backs were much of an issue, as Travis Homer and recently re-signed Marshawn Lynch were barely able to take the hand-off before they encountered Eagle defenders.  The yards-before-contact for each tell a decisive story.  Homer managed -3 yards for the night before contact.  Lynch had it even worse at -5.

Defensive lineman supreme Fletcher Cox was the most un-blockable of the Eagle front seven, but all of them had a hand in abusing Seattle’s offensive line.  This might have been the worst performance ever by an offensive line for a team that won a playoff game.  This battered line will now travel into Green Bay where they might expect similar treatment at the hands of the Packers’ Za’Darious Smith, who has been nearly untouchable over the season’s last few weeks.

If that isn’t enough of a concern, the Hawks also fly to Green Bay saddled with the leakiest defense of any team left in the playoffs after having given up 398 points during the season.  They have allowed more points this season than Houston has scored.  Ranked twenty-second against the run, they gave another 120 to the Eagles. From time to time, the Packers have been a running team, so that will interest them.  And when Aaron Rodgers wants to throw the ball, he will undoubtedly target Tre Flowers – like everyone else has.

On Sunday evening, Seattle was flagged for 11 penalties, costing them 114 yards.  Mostly these were two pass interference penalties against Flowers and multiple holding penalties by various offensive linemen trying to keep Cox out of their backfield.

As much as any team out there, the Seahawks are a team that finds a way – usually getting just enough magic out of Russell Wilson to squeak by.  But they will be going into Green Bay with significant concerns.

Defense Undoes Saints

Statistically, the Saints finished the 2019 regular season in about the middle of the pack defensively – they were eleventh over-all and thirteenth in points allowed.  They profited significantly from playing in a division of mostly offensively challenged teams.  When matched against quality offenses, they didn’t perform nearly as well.

They allowed more than 20 points 9 times, including giving 31 to Carolina in Week 12, and 48 to San Francisco in Week 14.  They also allowed six passer ratings of over 100, and allowed more than 140 rushing yards on four other occasions – two of them in the last 4 weeks of the season.  This includes a game where Tennessee piled up 149 yards without Derrick Henry in the lineup.

The Minnesota Vikings were a fairly average offense in 2019 – they ranked sixteenth.  They were eighth in scoring – principally thanks to a defense that provided them 31 takeaways.  And they ranked sixth rushing the football – averaging 133.3 yards per game.

Against New Orleans, the Vikings put up 106 rushing yards by halftime, and quarterback Kirk Cousins averaged 12.74 yards per completed pass against them.  He put the dagger in the Saints’ season with a 43-yard chuck to Adam Thielen in overtime that set Minnesota up at the two-yard line.  In a situation where they just needed to keep the Vikings from reaching the end zone, Minnesota moved 75 yards in 9 plays to end New Orleans 26-20 (gamebook) (summary).

The Vikings have shown some vulnerability against the run this year.  They have allowed 140 or more yards five time – including three games allowing more than 150 – all of those over their last five games of the season.

But New Orleans could never get a running game going and had difficulty keeping ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen off of Drew Brees’ back.  For all of this, though, the Saints had every opportunity to win this game.  They made a few mistakes, but made them at the worst possible times.

Mistakes, Big and Small

The Vikings had just closed to 10-6 on a field goal with 2:54 left in the first half.  Starting on their own 24, the Saints faced a third-and-six from their twenty-eight, with still 2:18 left in the half.  They also had all of their time outs.

So patient all year, Brees suddenly got impatient and floated up a deep pass to a double-covered Ted Ginn.  With help over the top, Anthony Harris undercut the route and picked the pass, bringing it all the way back to the Saint 45.

One minute and forty seconds later, Dalvin Cook sliced through the middle of the Saint line for the touchdown that gave Minnesota the lead.

But the Saints would get a golden opportunity to tie the game before the half when electric kick returner Deonte Harris brought the ensuing kickoff back 54 yards to the Viking 45 with still 12 seconds (and two timeouts) left.

A 20-yard shot to Michael Thomas gave the almost automatic Wil Lutz a shot at a 43-yarder.  But Lutz punched the ball wide right, and New Orleans went into the locker room with a 13-10 deficit.

Fast forward to the third quarter, Vikings now ahead 20-10.  With 2:08 left in the quarter, the Saints faced a fourth-and-three from their own 35 and sent the punting unit out to the field.

But it was a fake.  The irrepressible Taysom Hill took the direct snap and plowed forward for the first down.  All for naught, though.  The play was stopped for a false start called on Josh Hill.

Moving forward to the fourth quarter.  The Saints have pulled to within 20-17.  There are four and a half minutes left in the game.  Again the momentum maker is Taysom Hill, whose 28-yard burst up the sideline brought the Superdome crowd to its feet and left New Orleans with a first-and-ten from the Viking 20-yard line.

On the very next play, Hunter stripped the ball away from Brees and the drive abruptly ended.  It was Drew’s only fumble of the entire season.

The Vikings played one of their best games of the season, and will advance to San Francisco on Saturday.  The Saints will start to look toward next season.  For the third straight season they have been ousted from the playoffs under agonizing circumstances.

The Vikings will be underdogs again against the 49ers.  San Francisco, of course, has precious little playoff experience among their young roster, and have seen their defense slip a bit over the last few weeks of the season.  So you never know.

About This Hill Guy

Here were New Orleans four longest plays of the game:

1 – A fifty yard pass from Taysom Hill to Deonte Harris that set up the Saint’s first touchdown of the day.

2 – Taysom Hill runs 28 yards around left end – an electrifying run during which Hill shook off would-be tacklers like so many rag dolls.

3 – Drew Brees throws 20 yards to Thomas to set up the missed field goal at the half.

4 – Drew Brees throws a 20-yard touchdown pass to Taysom Hill, cutting the Viking lead to 20-17 in the fourth.

To this point, Taysom has been an appendage to the Saint offense – a kind of change of pace, brought in mostly to run for a first down on third and short – which he does very well, by the way.  He was on the field for only 41% of the New Orleans offensive plays.

The Saints in 2020 may look fairly different than they did this season.  I will make one bold prediction for them.  Mr. Hill – on the heels of his dynamic performance in this game – will begin to be a regular feature of the offense.  This can only be good news for those of us who watch the Saints on a regular basis.

Football

Fear the Titans – Fear Them

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The game had already been – essentially – decided.  With slightly more than three minutes left, the Tennessee Titans held a 28-14 lead in Houston over their division rivals.  But they still had a little bit of unfinished business.

Entering the game 165 yards behind Cleveland’s Nick Chubb, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry – after a huge game on the ground – now stood just 7 yards behind Chubb for the league rushing title.  And so, as Henry cruised down the sideline on his final carry of the day for the 53-yard touchdown that would push him past Nick, his sideline erupted with, perhaps, the most emotion they had shown all game.

What began as a must win for Tennessee to even extend its season into the playoffs, ended as a rout, and a coronation – of sorts – as the Titans rode Henry’s 211 rushing yards – and 3 rushing touchdowns (along with another excellent effort from quarterback Ryan Tannehill) to a 35-14 wildcard clinching victory (gamebook) (summary).

One of the tipoffs to Henry’s success came just after the touchdown as he stood along the sidelines embracing his offensive linemen.  If you didn’t know which one was Henry, it would be a little difficult to tell which was the running back and which was the offensive lineman.

Even as the running game has regained importance over the last few years – and even with the rise of a new generation of hammer backs – it is still unusual to see that running back standing eyeball to eyeball with his offensive line.

Listed heights and weights for NFL players are notoriously imprecise, but – as a point of comparison – Derrick Henry is listed at 6-3 and 247 pounds.  Of the other running backs that finished in the top ten in rushing, the next tallest was Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon, listed at 6-1.  Toiling in relative obscurity in Cincy, Mixon rolled up his second consecutive thousand yard season (1137) this year.  Taller than most, Mixon is still (officially) 27 pounds lighter than Henry at 220.

By listed weight, the next heaviest to Derrick are the bowling-ball backs – Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott and Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette.  Both are listed as 6-0 and 228 pounds – again almost 20 pounds lighter than Henry.

So Derrick’s sheer size is a factor – and the primary reason that his production rises notably in the second half of games.  On Sunday, Henry went into the locker room with just 47 rushing yards.  In the second half, he rolled up 164 – almost as many in those two quarters alone as he needed to catch Chubb.  For the season, Derrick earned 543 yards in the first halves of his games, averaging 4.1 yards per carry.  In the second halves he added 997 yards at 5.8 per carry.  In his combined third quarters alone, Derrick ran for more yardage (669 yards) than in the first two quarters of his games.

But Henry’s size is well-known.  What, perhaps, doesn’t get as much play is his speed and overall nimbleness.  Two plays before his 53-yard touchdown, Derrick popped for a 23-yard run.  Both plays were very similar.  The first run was a pitch to Derrick going down the left sideline.  He basically took the ball and outran Texan linebacker Brennan Scarlett around the corner.

The touchdown run was slightly more complex.  It began as a zone run left that Derrick cut back up the middle.  There was a lot of green in front of him, and only linebacker Peter Kalambayi waiting for him in the hole.  Peter was probably waiting for Henry to lower his shoulder and plow through him, but – channeling his inner scat-back – Henry pivoted adroitly off his left leg and cut sharply to the right.  With Kalambayi diving after him in vain, Derrick burst through the thinnest of openings between linebacker Barkevious Mingo and cornerback Keion Crossen and outran the rest of the defense for the last 40 yards down the right sideline.  I’m not sure Lamar Jackson could have done it better himself.

It is this unique combination of size, power, speed and quickness that makes Henry such a devastating weapon.  Derrick has now spent four complete seasons in Tennessee.  He has only one previous 1000 yard season, and has made just one previous trip to the playoffs.  After the 2017 season, the Titans went into Kansas City and won a wildcard game 22-21 fueled by 156 yards from Henry.  The next week – in the Divisional Round – they were dumped in New England (the site of today’s playoff game) 35-14, with Henry piling up just 28 yards.  He only carried 12 times.

Derrick has always been this kind of weapon.  His enduring problem in Tennessee is that the Titans could never muster a consistent enough passing game to allow them to keep handing the ball off to Henry for the whole game.  In fact, 2019 began the same as all of those other seasons.

Six weeks into the season, Tennessee was 2-4, with Henry averaging 18.8 carries a game for a modest 69.3 yards – averaging 3.7 yards per.  At that point, the team was handed over to Tannehill, and as the passing game picked up, so did Henry’s effectiveness.

Since the change in quarterbacks, Henry is averaging 21.1 carries and 124.9 yards per game – 5.9 yards per carry.  Over his last 6 games, he has been almost otherworldly, carrying 23.2 times a game for 149.3 yards per contest – almost 6.5 yards per carry.

The life brought to this offense by Tannehill almost can’t be overstated.  All Henry really needed was a solid passing attack.  To everyone’s surprise, what he got was arguably the most effective passing attack in the league.

Out of the mediocrity of his seasons in Miami, Ryan Tannehill has exploded onto the NFL scene like the second coming of Tom Brady.  His numbers are stunning.  His 117.5 passer rating leads the NFL – as does his average yards per pass (9.59) and his yards per completion (13.6).  His 7.7 touchdown percentage is second in the league, and his 70.3% completion percentage ranks third.

He passes the eye test, too.  If you watched him against Houston, you saw him following up his excellent decision-making with laser-precise throws into very tight windows.

You would not have expected this at the beginning of the season, but by every measure available to us, Ryan Tannehill looks to be the real thing.

All of this makes Tennessee one of the most intriguing darkhorses in the playoffs.  Two years later, they will be getting a second shot in New England – this time against a Patriot team that doesn’t seem to be a match for them.  Whether this Tennessee team could hold up against the Baltimore Ravens is a discussion we’ll have if that ever becomes relevant, but today I fully expect to see them end New England’s season.

As to the Texans, yes, they played this game under wraps.  Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Laremy Tunsil, D.J. Reader, Benardrick McKinney and Bradley Roby never saw the field, while their star running back – Carlos Hyde – didn’t play after the first series.

The defensive players who made cameos that day included Zach Cunningham (20 snaps), Angelo Blackson (20 snaps), Mike Adams (13), A.J. Moore (11), Johnathan Joseph (7) and Whitney Mercilus (7).

While we have to take Sunday’s final with a grain of salt as far as Houston goes, it is nonetheless true that this has been a mostly disappointing team all season – never more so than when they followed a transformational victory over New England with a head-scratching loss to Denver in weeks 13 and 14.  In Week 15 of this season, they traveled into Tennessee to win the game that essentially gave them the division title and left them with little to play for last Sunday.

But even in that game, one came away believing that Tennessee was the better team.  After a shaky first half that saw them fall behind 14-0, the Titans came roaring back after the intermission to narrow the final to 24-21 – a performance that makes me doubt whether Houston could have won this game even if they had tried.

While Tennessee enters their playoff game this afternoon as a team on the rise, I can’t feel the same for the Texans – who also play this afternoon.

I don’t trust them.  Even playing at home, I don’t trust this team to rise to the occasion.  Their opponents today from Buffalo have consistency issues with their offense, but they are a legit defense.  Truthfully, the Bills have precious few victories over quality teams on their resume, so it’s hard to favor them going into Houston and winning.  But I do expect them to give the Texans all they can handle.

And I can no longer feel any surprise when Houston loses a game that most feel they could have won.

Football

Packers Easily Clinch their Division

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Green Bay’s Aaron Jones fumbled on the game’s third offensive play (with Minnesota recovering), and Mike Boone crashed off left guard for 5 yards on the Vikings first play from scrimmage.  Four plays into 2019’s final Monday Night game, and the start for Minnesota couldn’t have been better.  With the game barely started, they broke the huddle for their second offensive play with a second and goal from the Packer 5-yard line.

And then Za’Darius Smith took over the game.  Blowing through the Viking offensive line as though it was made of tissue paper, Smith would pressure Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins on each of the next two plays, forcing him to throw both passes away.  The Vikings’ golden opportunity ended in a field goal.

After the Packers were thrashed by San Francisco in Week 12 – a game where Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards on just 14 completions – I suggested that Green Bay’s two edge rushers (Za’Darious and Preston Smith) might need a little help.  The statistics generally support this sentiment.  In spite of the successes of the two Smith’s, the Packers came into that Monday night contest slightly below the league average in quarterback sacks (they had 35 against the league average of 35.1) and their 6.7% sack percentage was right at the league average.  The lack of pass-rush pressure contributed significantly to the 12.6 yards per catch that the secondary has allowed – the fifth worst figure in the league.

As the season plays out, the lack of additional pass rushers may, indeed, come back to haunt the Packers.  But for one Monday night in late December, Za’Darius Smith didn’t need any help.

For the game, Green Bay sacked Cousins 5 times (3.5 of them by Z Smith), hit him 7 times (5 by Z Smith), and pressured him 10 times (6 by Z Smith).  He also had 5 of their 7 tackles-for-a-loss as he was just as devastating to the running game as he was to the Viking passing attack.

It is uncommon to see a team dominated as thoroughly as Green Bay dominated the Vikings – much worse than indicated by the 23-10 final (gamebook) (summary).  Both of the Minnesota scores were set up by first-half turnovers, with the two scoring drives totaling all of 31 yards.  The Vikings finished the first half with just 2 first downs, and finished the game with just 7 on 139 yards of total offense.  They failed to earn a first down in 8 of their 13 possessions, and even finished three of those possessions with negative yardage (if penalty yards are included).  Counting sacks, Minnesota averaged fewer yards per passing play (2.2) than they averaged per running play (3.6).

The full price of the offense’s inability to stay on the field was born by the defense, who endured 75 Green Bay offensive snaps over a soul-crushing 37:32 of possession.  The Packers eventually rolled up 184 rushing yards against Minnesota – 118 of them in the game’s second half (almost as many second half rushing yards as the Vikings managed total yards for the whole game).

For most of the season, this was one of the NFL’s most anticipated games.  Looming before the second-seeded Packers was this trip into Minnesota and the raucous atmosphere of US Bank Stadium.  Over the second half of the season, the Viking offense had come to life, and this was expected to be a pitched battle for the division crown.

Za’Darius, apparently, never got the memo.

The aftermath gives Green Bay the NFC North division, again, and holds them very securely in the second spot in the NFC pecking order.  There is still work to be done.  If they beat Detroit in Week 17, they could finish as high as number one (if San Francisco loses) or they could still drop to third if they lose to the Lions and New Orleans beats Carolina.

As for the Vikings, their final game against Chicago has been rendered meaningless – they will finish as the NFC’s sixth seed.  They will head into this year’s playoffs with all the questions raised by this game hovering over them.

That first playoff game will come on the road against one of the teams (the 49ers, Packers or Saints) that currently sit at 12-3.  It will be a tall order for this Viking team.

Football

Bills Fall Eight Yards Short

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It was fitting that J.C. Jackson would be the one to make that last play.

With 5:06 left in the game, and trailing the Patriots 24-17, Buffalo began their last drive on their own 25 where they began to drive methodically downfield – holding two timeouts.

Members of the same division, the Bills line up against the vaunted New England defense twice a year, and are certainly more familiar with them than many of the teams that have faced them this year.  While they knew the Patriots would match cornerback supreme Stephon Gilmore on John Brown – their most dangerous receiver, they also knew which of the New England defenders they could take advantage of.

Their favorite matchup of the evening was Cole Beasley on Jackson.  All evening Jackson struggled accounting for Beasley’s quickness.  For the game, Cole would catch 7 passes for 108 yards – most of them against Jackson in man coverage.  He caught 5 for 85 yards in the second half alone, including 4 in this final drive for 57 yards.

The Bills picked up two early first downs on throws to Beasley of 13 and then 12 yards, bringing them to midfield.  An 11-yard scramble from Josh Allen brought them to the Patriot 39 with 3:39 left.  But here, the drive seemed to stall.  When a third-down run from Devin Singletary came up a yard short, Buffalo put the game in the hands of young quarterback, Allen.

As he had done on Thanksgiving against Dallas, Josh attempted to navigate the yard with a quarterback sneak, only to find his way initially hedged.  Not to be denied, Allen fought his way out of the chaos at the line and found enough of an opening to dive through to pick up the first down.

After an illegal formation penalty brought them back to the 33, Allen (in spite of heavy pressure) threw the pass that looked like it might send the game into overtime.

New England showed man coverage in the pre-snap, but dropped into cover-two.  Outside receiver Robert Foster’s deep corner route pulled safety Devin McCourty further and further from the middle of the field, opening a void 25-yards downfield that Beasley settled into for the catch that gave Buffalo a first-and-goal at the 8.

The Stakes

Usually in their Week 16 game, the Patriots are looking for that victory that will wrap up the number one seed in their conference.  This year, that opportunity was already lost.  Notwithstanding that they had yet to clinch their own division (a rarity in New England), the Patriots did come into the game holding the conference’s second seed – with its promise of a first-round bye if they could hang onto it.  Buffalo came into the game with a playoff berth already locked up and the fifth seed all but assured.  They did have a chance to actually take the division, but that would mean not only would they have to beat the Patriots in New England, but Miami would have to do the same next week – an unlikely combination.

So, from a seeding standpoint, this game was more important to the Patriots than the Bills.  The stakes for the Bills were less tangible, but just as high.  They were looking for that franchise moment – that one game when they would go into New England and knock the defending champions down in an important contest.  In that sense, these final 8 yards might have been the biggest yards of the Buffalo season.  They were literally all that separated them from the longtime kings of their division and their conference.

They had 2:21 left, including one timeout and the two-minute warning to re-write the franchise narrative.

The End Game

The first-down call was damaging – a designed off-tackle run by Allen that resulted in the loss of a yard and took the game to the two-minute warning.  Their moment would come on the next play.

Another of the matchups available to Buffalo all game – and one that they perhaps didn’t take advantage of as much as they should have – was tight end Dawson Knox on safety Patrick Chung, who had coverage on him all over the field.  On the shorter routes, Chung could adequately hang with Dawson, but was no match for his speed on deeper routes.

With 9:30 left in the first quarter, Knox ran a deep route from the NE 17 to the corner of the left end zone with Chung trailing him by about five yards.  But Allen couldn’t get enough loft on the ball and missed the touchdown as he threw a line drive over Dawson’s head.

With 16 seconds left in the first half, they came back to this matchup, with Knox running toward that same corner of the end zone.  This time, Josh laid the ball in perfectly for a 33-yard play that left the ball on the one-yard line, setting up the score that sent the game into the half tied at ten.

Now, with two minutes left, it was time for Knox vs Chung round three.  Again, Dawson was running in the left corner of the end zone, with Patrick in trail mode.  And once again, Josh couldn’t get any air under the ball.  As the players, coaches and fans of the Bills watched the pass soar over Knox’ head, they all knew what would happen next.  Now it was third-and-goal.

With Knox bracketed by Chung and Joejuan Williams, Allen had to go elsewhere.  Josh may have had a shot at Beasley in a smallish window in between Jackson and Duron Harmon, and may actually have been waiting for Brown to get some separation from Gilmore on a crossing route.  Whatever he was waiting for, Allen held the ball too long.  And with Kyle Van Noy streaming around the corner to his right, Josh just pulled the ball down and stepped up into the sack and a six-yard loss.

The fourth-and-goal play was doomed from the start.  After showing a seven-man blitz, three of those potential rushers dropped off.  But the deception did its job.  Of the four who actually rushed, three came through free – Van Noy and John Simon off the edges, and especially Jamie Collins up the middle.  The pressure caused Allen to retreat all the way to the 30-yard line before he flung his desperation pass into the corner of the right end zone.  There in the area was Beasley.  But underneath him, and watching the ball all the way, was Jackson.  They converged along the right sideline, where both leaped for the ball.  But J.C. had the superior position, and slapped Buffalo’s last-gasp pass away.

Aftermath

With the 24-17 victory (gamebook) (summary), New England wins its eleventh consecutive division title, but probably must still beat Miami next week to get their first round bye.  Back in the playoffs, Buffalo will be the fifth seed – almost certainly headed to Houston.

As to the eight yards, well it’s closer than Buffalo has been to the Patriots in many a year.  But there are no moral victories in the NFL.  This game was there for Buffalo to take.  The Bills will now take this “almost” with them into the playoffs, where questions about Allen and the offense will follow them.

For the Patriots, in addition to the division crown, this game may mark the point where the offense finally figured itself out.  Measured against an exceedingly tough Buffalo defense that ranked third overall, second in points allowed, third against the pass and second in passer rating against, the heretofore struggling Patriot offense created 414 yards of offense – 143 of them rush yards.  More than this, quarterback Tom Brady saddled that Buffalo pass defense with a 111.0 passer rating.  It was Brady’s best passer rating game since Week Three against Miami, and the highest allowed by Buffalo this season.  In the second half, Tom completed 10 of 11 passes (90.9%) for 137 yards.  After controlling the ball for 21:17 of the first half, the Patriots went on to dominate time of possession 38:52 to 21:08.  They held the ball longer in the first half than Buffalo did all game.

Finally, future opponents of New England will note Jackson’s difficulties with quicker receivers and Chung’s struggles with tight ends that can go deep.  As the season winds to its close and we learn more and more about them, the key to the Patriot defense is almost certainly its ability to rush the passer.

Unique to New England is the absence of a dominant pass rusher.  There is no Nick Bosa or Aaron Donald – no one for the offense to focus on.  It’s the Patriot linebackers that make the pass rush so difficult to slow down: Don’t’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy.  They line up everywhere.  Sometimes they rush.  Sometimes they don’t.  Sometimes they time their delayed rushes perfectly.

It works out to being a sixty-minute guessing game.  If the offense guesses wrong, they will be plagued with free rushers into their backfield.  And if they guess right and manage to put blockers on all the Patriots that are coming, then there will be opportunities in the secondary for big plays.

Last Saturday, the Bills almost cashed in on enough of them.