The sense that I get of it is that even if these last three games had mattered John Gant would still have gotten the start last night. Nothing against John, but I find it an interesting indictment of the condition Cardinal pitching staff as the last few days of the season dwindle away.
I am pointing this out to frame a fairly simple argument for keeping Lance Lynn. I ask this question. Who are your five next year, if there is no Lance Lynn? Carlos Martinez, sure. Luke Weaver? Yes, I think so. Michael Wacha? Yes, I think he showed enough to warrant a spot.
That’s three. And then?
Adam Wainwright? A serious health concern heading into the offseason. Alex Reyes? Probably not ready to shoulder a starter’s innings load. Jack Flaherty? Doesn’t quite look like he’s quite major league ready to me. John Gant?
You see what I mean? The St Louis Cardinal organization is loaded with promising pitchers. But the crest of the wave is probably a year or two away. With a Lance Lynn to bear up some of those innings, this team can remain competitive while they rebuild. If Lance goes, well . . .
Ironically, Gant nearly broke the streak of non-quality Cardinal starts (which is now run to 14). He took the mound in the sixth inning having allowed just two runs. Alas, the only two batters he faced in that inning reached and later scored, providing the pivotal inning of Milwaukee’s 5-3 victory (box score)
The starting rotation thus stays stuck on 7 quality starts for the month (now through 27 games) with a 4.62 ERA.
Meanwhile, the offense finished with just 6 hits. The Cardinals face the last two games of the season with a .237 team batting average for the month of September.
Stephen Piscotty’s goals may have slid from hoping to get hot for the last month of the season to hoping to get one more hit before the season ends. With last night’s 0 for 3, Piscotty is 0 for 16 over his last 6 games, and has now gone 16 games without driving in a run. He is hitting .180 (9 for 50) in those games.
Meanwhile, his average for the month fades to .221 (15 for 68), and his second half average is down to .223 (25 for 112). Of course, Randal Grichuk was 0 for 2 as well last night. He is hitting just .222 this month (12 for 54).
The Cardinals end the season losing the first game of their last two series. Of the 52 they played, they won the first game just 25 times.
In those 25 series, they were 53-25 (but only 28-25 after that first game). The average length of those games was 3:02.6, while 2,755,380 attended them (an average of 35,325.4). It was almost always hot when the Cards won the first game of a series – an average temperature of 80.3. They finished 16-5-4 in those series. When the other team forced a rubber game, though, St Louis was just 2-4.
It’s Always a Bad Sign . . .
When your team dominates the first half, but you don’t walk off the field with the lead. That was Arizona’s story Monday night as they pushed Dallas around 152 yards to 57; 10 first downs to 5, and 20:19 of possession time – but they went into the locker room with a 7-7 tie. When that kind of thing happens, you kind of figure you’re going to have trouble.
And they did. Dallas took control of the second half and finished with a 28-17 victory (gamebook).
The last couple of weeks have been very different for the Cowboy offense. They only scored 19 points in their opening win over the NY Giants, but the offense mostly operated as expected – 129 rushing yards as part of a 392 yard night of total offense.
All of a sudden, though, the vaunted Dallas running game has been at least partially derailed and the Cowboy receivers are struggling a bit to gain separation from tight man coverage. The running yards have been 139 total over the last two games. When the running game doesn’t work, the whole Cowboy offense looks out of kilter.
Against Denver in Week Two the Cowboys put their running game on the shelf and then unraveled in a 42-17 loss. Monday night they kept running the ball – even though the running game never really came together. Star running back Ezekiel Elliott finished with a modest 80 yards on 22 carries – and 50 of those yards came on just 2 carries. But the important thing was that they kept at it.
Against Denver, quarterback Dak Prescott threw 50 times – to mostly poor effect. Monday he threw just 18 times – to mostly spectacular effect. A few big plays from the offense and a dominating performance from defensive end Demarcus Lawrence were enough to get by. But if the running game continues to struggle, Dallas’ season will quickly get much tougher.
Interesting Game in Detroit
Yes, the defending NFC Champion Falcons were very lucky to escape Sunday’s game without enduring their first loss (gamebook). What an effort by the Lion defense. They mostly contained uber-receiver Julio Jones (91 yards on 7 catches is contained when talking about Jones) and they intercepted 3 passes off of Matt Ryan (yes, 2 of them were tipped – still).
All in all, it’s about as well as you will see the Atlanta passing attack defended.
The thing that separates the Falcons, though, is the running attack. The Falcons finished the day with 151 rushing yards to only 71 for Detroit. Awfully hard to overcome – although the Lions almost did.
A Tale of Two Quarterbacks
I still don’t know what to make of Tyrod Taylor. He certainly has some skills, but is he a franchise quarterback? He is unorthodox, but frequently unorthodox is good.
Whichever, Tyrod had himself an afternoon against Denver last Sunday. Some of his throws were letter perfect. Some were pretty wide of the mark, but his receivers made outstanding catches of them. One of his two touchdown passes bounced off the hands of one receiver into the hands of another. Hey, when it’s your day, it’s your day. He ended up with 213 passing yards and a 126.0 rating.
Significantly, Buffalo ran the ball 33 times – even though they only managed 2.3 yards per rush. Buffalo committed themselves to balance, and let Taylor work within the structure of the game plan. Tyrod made many, many big plays that contributed to the Buffalo victory. He was never asked to win the game himself.
Ironically, that is exactly the general idea that Denver operates under with their quarterback Trevor Siemian. They want to play great defense, run the ball, and let Siemian make good decisions in the passing game. They don’t want him to have to win the game for them.
As they fell behind, though, they had to depend more and more on Siemian. He ended up tossing two interceptions contributing to the 26-16 loss (gamebook).
It is understood that Denver is not built to come from behind. This will almost certainly catch up with them at some critical point during the season.
Speaking of Quarterbacks
I have promised on several occasions to initiate a discussion of Giant quarterback Eli Manning. I had intended to do this at some point when baseball season was over and the discussion here is only on football. But Eli did that thing on Sunday that he does better than any quarterback that I can remember.
After three very unremarkable quarters of football, the Giants, trailing 14-0 at this point, seemed on their way to another bloodless loss. Then, out of nowhere, Eli and the Giant offense flipped the switch. They scored 24 points in the fourth quarter. They still lost – on a last minute field goal (gamebook) – but the complexion of the game suddenly changed.
There are – of course – other fourth-quarter quarterbacks. But none of them that I remember have the Teflon ego that Eli seems to have. Eli can be awful for three quarters, and then play the fourth as though none of that had ever happened.
It used to puzzle me that he could do that, until a couple of seasons ago I remembered. He’s Peyton Manning’s little brother. Then it all made sense.
What must it be like to grow up the highly competitive little brother of the highly competitive Peyton Manning? They must have challenged each other in every sport imaginable, from checkers to ping pong to one-on-one basketball. And, of course, Peyton would always win. He was older (and, frankly better) at all those things, so every time Eli followed Peyton onto the basketball court, he knew he was in for a beating.
So why would he do it? Picture in your mind Eli, the snarky little brother, who lives for that one moment. He’s losing 22-0, but he has that one play – he fakes a jumper, but spins around to get his one unchallenged layup.
And that is the game. The scoreboard is now irrelevant. In that glorious moment – that he will never let Peyton forget until the next time they take the court – Eli has completely undone all the indignities of the first part of the game. He’d gotten him. It was just one play, but Eli knew that it would burn in his brother’s psyche.
Fast forward about 20 years and Eli is an NFL quarterback. But that mentality is still in there. Inside he is still that snarky little kid who can take a beating that would shake – a least a little bit – the confidence of even established players. This doesn’t make Eli a great quarterback. But it gives him a very interesting ability.
As to the Eagles, I don’t know if head coach Doug Pederson reads my blog, but he certainly responded as if he did. One week after I chided him for ignoring LeGarrette Blount and his running game, Philadelphia ran for 193 yards – 67 by Blount. Not surprisingly, they won.